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LSU

LSU 41 at Mississippi State 14

MSST
2023 · Week 3 · Sep 16, 2023 · Davis Wade Stadium
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Win probability · MSST
modelMSST aheadLSU aheadconfidence bandkey playMSST scoreLSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of GameTD+0.1MSST 0.3%Mike Wright pass complete to AntonioHarmon for 4 yds for a TD (Kyle FerrieKICK)AWAY 41 - HOME 14 · Q4 4:26
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 4:26 · Mike Wright pass complete to Antonio Harmon for 4 yds for a TD (Kyle Ferrie KICK)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+56.5+28.30−28.3−56.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 152Home team on offense−54.0Pregame prior−2.2Score differential−41.3Garbage-time factor−19.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−11.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 3:38: Jayden Daniels pass complete to Malik Nabers for 26 yds for a TD (Damian Ramos KICK) — LSU win probability +2.8 pts (now 77%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 3:24: Josh Williams run for 1 yd for a TD (Damian Ramos KICK) — LSU win probability +7.3 pts (now 91%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:50: Lideatrick Griffin run for 9 yds for a TD (Kyle Ferrie KICK) — MSST win probability +6.5 pts (now 19%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  4. FG · Q3 10:41: Damian Ramos 41 yd FG GOOD — LSU win probability +4.8 pts (now 93%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 3:27: Jayden Daniels 5 Yd Run (Damian Ramos Kick) — LSU win probability +2.1 pts (now 99%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MSST made the numbers' call on 10 of 10LSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 13:48MSST 4th & 10 at MSST 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.7%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:12LSU 4th & 2 at MSST 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 68.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    68.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    68.6%−0.1
    58% to make
    Punt
    68.2%−0.5
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:36LSU 4th & 6 at MSST 6, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 67.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.2%−<0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    67.3%
    91% to make
    Punt
    66.0%−1.3
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:28MSST 4th & 17 at MSST 34, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.5%−0.6
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.1%
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:26MSST 4th & 10 at MSST 25, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.9%−0.4
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.4%
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:11LSU 4th & 7 at MSST 33, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 70.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    70.6%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    70.6%−<0.1
    49% to make
    Punt
    70.2%−0.4
    average punt
  7. Q2 12:54MSST 4th & 3 at MSST 32, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.1%−0.2
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.3%
    average punt
  8. Q2 7:27LSU 4th & 28 at LSU 33, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.4%−3.2
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.6%
    average punt
  9. Q2 6:09MSST 4th & 15 at MSST 22, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.3%−1.4
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.7%
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:18MSST 4th & 4 at LSU 14, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 13.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    13.4%
    46% to convert
    Field goal
    13.3%−<0.1
    84% to make
    Punt
    8.3%−5.1
    average punt
  11. Q3 10:41LSU 4th & 8 at MSST 22, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 85.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.3%−0.9
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    85.2%
    72% to make
    Punt
    78.8%−6.3
    average punt
  12. Q3 9:18MSST 4th & 1 at MSST 34, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    11.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    10.8%−1.0
    average punt
  13. Q3 5:58MSST 4th & 6 at LSU 37, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 8.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.5%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    8.7%−0.8
    40% to make
    Punt
    8.4%−1.1
    average punt
  14. Q3 2:19MSST 4th & 9 at MSST 38, down 27
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.4%−0.3
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.7%
    average punt
  15. Q4 9:41MSST 4th & 6 at MSST 45, down 34
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
  16. Q4 8:45LSU 4th & 4 at LSU 21, up 34
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.6%−0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.7%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MSST made the numbers' call on 1 of 2LSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 3:38LSU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:11LSU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 3:24LSU Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:50MSST Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    14.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    14.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 3:27LSU Touchdown, up 26 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 12:11LSU Touchdown, up 33 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 4:26MSST Touchdown, down 28 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.2%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.3%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MSSTDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 12 yds · 1:0723% → 23%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
22.6%
Will Rogers pass complete to Justin Robinson for 12 yds to the MSST 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
22.8%
Jo'Quavious Marks run for no gain to the MSST 37Similar
Q1 13:59
2ND & 10
OWN 37
0
23.1%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Jordan MosleySimilar
Q1 13:55
3RD & 10
OWN 37
0
23.1%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Antonio HarmonSimilar
Q1 13:48
4TH & 10
OWN 37
0
23.1%
Keelan Crimmins punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Gregory Clayton Jr. at the LSU 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 2FG
17 plays · 77 yds · 7:1277% → 74%
Q1 13:48
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-5
23.2%
LSU Penalty, False Start (TEAM) to the LSU 12Similar
Q1 13:43
1ST & 15
OWN 12
+5
23.2%
Jayden Daniels run for 5 yds to the LSU 17Similar
Q1 13:06
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+8
23.5%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Logan Diggs for 8 yds to the LSU 25Similar
Q1 12:22
3RD & 2
OWN 25
+16
23.9%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Logan Diggs for 16 yds to the LSU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:48
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+22
24.0%
Jayden Daniels run for 7 yds to the MSST 48 for a 1ST down Mississippi State Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Jaden Crumedy) to the MSST 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:34
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-3
24.0%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to John Emery Jr. for a loss of 3 yards to the MSST 40Similar
Q1 10:55
2ND & 13
OPP 40
+5
24.3%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Mac Markway for 5 yds to the MSST 35Similar
Q1 10:28
3RD & 8
OPP 35
+6
24.5%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Malik Nabers for 6 yds to the MSST 29Similar
Q1 10:12
4TH & 2
OPP 29
+5
24.9%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Malik Nabers for 5 yds to the MSST 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:41
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+9
24.8%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Malik Nabers for 9 yds to the MSST 15Similar
Q1 9:01
2ND & 1
OPP 15
+5
25.0%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Chris Hilton Jr. for 5 yds to the MSST 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+2
25.1%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Malik Nabers for 2 yds to the MSST 8Similar
Q1 7:52
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+6
25.4%
Logan Diggs run for 6 yds to the MSST 2Similar
Q1 7:32
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
25.7%
Logan Diggs run for 1 yd to the MSST 1Similar
Q1 6:50
4TH & 0
OPP 1
-5
26.2%
Diggs, Logan rush for 1 yard to the MISSSTATE0, PENALTY LSU false start 5 yards to the MISSSTATE6, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 6:36
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+22
26.1%
Damian Ramos 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · -7 yds · 0:4227% → 26%
Q1 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-7
27.0%
Will Rogers sacked by Sai'vion Jones for a loss of 7 yards to the MSST 34Similar
Q1 5:42
2ND & 17
OWN 34
0
26.3%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Freddie RobersonSimilar
Q1 5:37
3RD & 17
OWN 34
0
26.1%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Jo'Quavious MarksSimilar
Q1 5:28
4TH & 17
OWN 34
0
26.0%
Keelan Crimmins punt for 36 yds, downed at the LSU 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 4TD
4 plays · 70 yds · 1:4173% → 77%
Q1 5:19
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+32
26.8%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Malik Nabers for 32 yds to the MSST 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:58
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+8
26.3%
Logan Diggs run for 8 yds to the MSST 30Similar
Q1 4:18
2ND & 2
OPP 30
+4
26.2%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Chris Hilton Jr. for 4 yds to the MSST 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:38
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+26
23.4%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Malik Nabers for 26 yds for a TD (Damian Ramos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 0 yds · 1:0625% → 23%
Q1 3:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
24.5%
Jo'Quavious Marks run for no gain to the MSST 25Similar
Q1 3:25
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
24.4%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Justin RobinsonSimilar
Q1 2:33
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
23.6%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Jo'Quavious MarksSimilar
Q1 2:26
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
23.4%
Andrew Osteen punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Gregory Clayton Jr. at the LSU 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 6TD
8 plays · 63 yds · 3:0777% → 78%
Q1 2:18
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+13
23.5%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Josh Williams for 13 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:50
1ST & 10
50
+4
23.2%
Jayden Daniels run for 4 yds to the MSST 46Similar
Q1 1:26
2ND & 6
OPP 46
0
23.2%
Jayden Daniels pass incomplete to Mac MarkwaySimilar
Q1 1:16
3RD & 6
OPP 46
+10
23.3%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Brian Thomas Jr. for 10 yds to the MSST 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:43
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+2
23.2%
Jayden Daniels run for 2 yds to the MSST 34Similar
Q1 0:21
2ND & 8
OPP 34
+5
23.2%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Brian Thomas Jr. for 5 yds to the MSST 29Similar
Q2 14:55
3RD & 3
OPP 29
-4
23.4%
Jayden Daniels run for a loss of 4 yards to the MSST 33Similar
Q2 14:11
4TH & 7
OPP 33
+33
22.1%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Malik Nabers for 33 yds for a TD (Damian Ramos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 1:1320% → 20%
Q2 14:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
20.4%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'Quavious Marks for a loss of 1 yard to the MSST 24Similar
Q2 13:37
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
20.3%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Lideatrick GriffinSimilar
Q2 13:28
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+8
20.1%
Will Rogers pass complete to Lideatrick Griffin for 8 yds to the MSST 32Similar
Q2 12:54
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
20.3%
Keelan Crimmins punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Gregory Clayton Jr. at the LSU 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 8PUNT
11 plays · 13 yds · 5:2278% → 76%
Q2 12:49
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
22.0%
John Emery Jr. run for 3 yds to the LSU 23Similar
Q2 12:11
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+12
21.8%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Malik Nabers for 12 yds to the LSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:49
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
21.6%
John Emery Jr. run for 2 yds to the LSU 37Similar
Q2 11:17
2ND & 8
OWN 37
-1
21.6%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Aaron Anderson for a loss of 1 yard to the LSU 36Similar
Q2 10:40
3RD & 9
OWN 36
+15
21.6%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Malik Nabers for 15 yds to the MSST 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:06
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
20.8%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Brian Thomas Jr. for 5 yds to the MSST 44Similar
Q2 9:33
2ND & 5
OPP 44
-8
20.3%
Jayden Daniels sacked by Deonte Anderson and Nathaniel Watson for a loss of 8 yards to the LSU 48Similar
Q2 8:10
3RD & 13
OWN 48
-10
22.7%
Daniels, Jayden rush for 9 yards to the MISSSTATE43, PENALTY LSU holding (Heard, Lance) 10 yards to the LSU38, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:50
3RD & 23
OWN 38
-5
22.7%
Jayden Daniels sacked by Jaden Crumedy for a loss of 5 yards to the LSU 33Similar
Q2 7:27
4TH & 28
OWN 33
0
23.8%
Jay Bramblett punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Zavion Thomas at the MSST 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · -5 yds · 1:1220% → 19%
Q2 7:21
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+2
19.6%
Zavion Thomas run for 2 yds to the MSST 29Similar
Q2 6:52
2ND & 8
OWN 29
0
19.4%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Freddie RobersonSimilar
Q2 6:47
3RD & 8
OWN 29
-7
19.2%
Will Rogers sacked by Mekhi Wingo for a loss of 7 yards to the MSST 22Similar
Q2 6:09
4TH & 15
OWN 22
0
18.6%
Keelan Crimmins punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Gregory Clayton Jr. at the LSU 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 10TD
6 plays · 66 yds · 2:3778% → 91%
Q2 6:01
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+48
22.3%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Malik Nabers for 48 yds to the MSST 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:19
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+7
20.7%
Logan Diggs run for 7 yds to the MSST 11Similar
Q2 4:45
2ND & 3
OPP 11
+4
17.7%
Logan Diggs run for 4 yds to the MSST 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+6
16.2%
Jayden Daniels run for 6 yds to the MSST 1Similar
Q2 3:46
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
16.2%
Josh Williams run for no gain to the MSST 1Similar
Q2 3:24
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
8.9%
Josh Williams run for 1 yd for a TD (Damian Ramos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 11TD
8 plays · 72 yds · 2:1614% → 19%
Q2 3:06
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+52
13.6%
Jo'Quavious Marks run for 52 yds to the LSU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:49
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
15.2%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Antonio HarmonSimilar
Q2 2:45
2ND & 10
OPP 20
-3
15.1%
Will Rogers sacked by Harold Perkins Jr. for a loss of 3 yards to the LSU 23Similar
Q2 2:04
3RD & 13
OPP 23
+9
14.1%
Will Rogers pass complete to Zavion Thomas for 9 yds to the LSU 14Similar
Q2 1:18
4TH & 4
OPP 14
+5
12.6%
Will Rogers pass complete to Lideatrick Griffin for 5 yds to the LSU 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
19.1%
Lideatrick Griffin run for 9 yds for a TD (Kyle Ferrie KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 12END OF HALF
3 plays · 16 yds · 0:3688% → 88%
Q2 0:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
11.7%
Josh Williams run for 3 yds to the LSU 28Similar
Q2 0:08
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+13
11.9%
Josh Williams run for 13 yds to the LSU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 13FG
12 plays · 53 yds · 4:1486% → 93%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
13.9%
Logan Diggs run for 1 yd to the LSU 26Similar
Q3 14:35
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+7
13.8%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Brian Thomas Jr. for 7 yds to the LSU 33Similar
Q3 14:11
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+8
13.8%
Logan Diggs run for 8 yds to the LSU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:37
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
13.2%
Logan Diggs run for 5 yds to the LSU 46Similar
Q3 12:58
2ND & 5
OWN 46
+1
12.6%
Logan Diggs run for 1 yd to the LSU 47Similar
Q3 12:18
3RD & 4
OWN 47
+19
12.6%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Brian Thomas Jr. for 19 yds to the MSST 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:04
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+10
12.0%
Jayden Daniels run for 10 yds to the MSST 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:29
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+2
11.4%
John Emery Jr. run for 2 yds to the MSST 22Similar
Q3 10:51
2ND & 8
OPP 22
0
11.2%
Jayden Daniels pass incomplete to John Emery Jr.Similar
Q3 10:46
3RD & 8
OPP 22
0
11.6%
Jayden Daniels pass incomplete to Chris Hilton Jr.Similar
Q3 10:41
4TH & 8
OPP 22
+41
6.8%
Damian Ramos 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 14DOWNS
11 plays · 38 yds · 4:3810% → 8%
Q3 10:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
10.1%
Jo'Quavious Marks run for 7 yds to the MSST 32Similar
Q3 10:07
2ND & 3
OWN 32
0
9.9%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Zavion ThomasSimilar
Q3 10:02
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+2
9.7%
Jo'Quavious Marks run for 2 yds to the MSST 34Similar
Q3 9:18
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+4
9.5%
Jo'Quavious Marks run for 4 yds to the MSST 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:43
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+21
9.7%
Will Rogers pass complete to Zavion Thomas for 21 yds to the LSU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:29
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+1
10.1%
Jo'Quavious Marks run for 1 yd to the LSU 40Similar
Q3 7:51
2ND & 9
OPP 40
-3
9.8%
Will Rogers sacked by Major Burns for a loss of 3 yards to the LSU 43Similar
Q3 7:09
3RD & 12
OPP 43
+11
9.1%
Will Rogers pass complete to Justin Robinson for 11 yds to the LSU 32Similar
Q3 6:21
4TH & 1
OPP 32
-5
8.7%
Mississippi State Penalty, False Start (Justin Robinson) to the LSU 37Similar
Q3 5:58
4TH & 6
OPP 37
0
8.0%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Zavion ThomasSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 15TD
5 plays · 62 yds · 2:1995% → 99%
Q3 5:46
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+38
4.6%
Jayden Daniels run for 23 yds to the MSST 40 for a 1ST down Mississippi State Penalty, Targeting (Shawn Preston Jr.) to the MSST 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:05
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+6
3.6%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Logan Diggs for 6 yds to the MSST 19Similar
Q3 4:33
2ND & 4
OPP 19
-1
3.5%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Malik Nabers for a loss of 1 yard to the MSST 20Similar
Q3 3:38
3RD & 5
OPP 20
+14
3.4%
Jayden Daniels run for 9 yds to the MSST 11 for a 1ST down Mississippi State Penalty, Face Mask (5 yards) (Marcus Banks) to the MSST 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
1.3%
Jayden Daniels 5 Yd Run (Damian Ramos Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:552% → 2%
Q3 3:14
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
1.5%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Creed WhittemoreSimilar
Q3 3:09
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+1
1.4%
Lideatrick Griffin run for 1 yd to the MSST 38Similar
Q3 2:32
3RD & 9
OWN 38
0
2.1%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Zavion ThomasSimilar
Q3 2:19
4TH & 9
OWN 38
+13
2.3%
Keelan Crimmins punt for 50 yds , Gregory Clayton Jr. returns for 13 yds to the LSU 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 17TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 4:4998% → 100%
Q3 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
1.6%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Kaleb Jackson for 9 yds to the LSU 34 LSU Penalty, Offensive Holding (Will Campbell) to the LSU 24Similar
Q3 1:51
1ST & 11
OWN 24
0
1.6%
Jayden Daniels pass incomplete to Brian Thomas Jr.Similar
Q3 1:44
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+13
1.6%
Kaleb Jackson run for 13 yds to the LSU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:21
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
1.5%
Jayden Daniels run for 6 yds to the LSU 43Similar
Q3 0:48
2ND & 4
OWN 43
0
1.4%
Kaleb Jackson run for no gain to the LSU 43Similar
Q3 0:09
3RD & 4
OWN 43
+7
1.4%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Malik Nabers for 7 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
50
+6
1.3%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Kaleb Jackson for 6 yds to the MSST 44Similar
Q4 14:21
2ND & 4
OPP 44
+2
0.6%
Kaleb Jackson run for 2 yds to the MSST 42Similar
Q4 13:42
3RD & 2
OPP 42
+3
0.5%
Jayden Daniels run for 3 yds to the MSST 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:57
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+8
0.5%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Brian Thomas Jr. for 8 yds to the MSST 31Similar
Q4 12:57
2ND & 2
OPP 31
-15
0.5%
LSU Penalty, Personal Foul (Will Campbell) to the MSST 46Similar
Q4 12:31
2ND & 17
OPP 46
+45
0.5%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Malik Nabers for 45 yds to the MSST 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
0.4%
Jayden Daniels run for 1 yd for a TD (Damian Ramos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 18PUNT
8 plays · 20 yds · 2:260% → 0%
Q4 12:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
0.3%
Will Rogers pass complete to Lideatrick Griffin for a loss of 1 yard to the MSST 24Similar
Q4 11:37
2ND & 11
OWN 24
-5
0.3%
Will Rogers run for a loss of 5 yards to the MSST 19Similar
Q4 10:49
3RD & 16
OWN 19
+22
0.3%
Will Rogers pass complete to Zavion Thomas for 22 yds to the MSST 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
0.3%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Freddie RobersonSimilar
Q4 10:30
2ND & 10
OWN 41
0
0.3%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Jo'Quavious MarksSimilar
Q4 10:23
3RD & 10
OWN 41
+4
0.3%
Jeffery Pittman run for 4 yds to the MSST 45Similar
Q4 9:41
4TH & 6
OWN 45
0
0.2%
Keelan Crimmins punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Gregory Clayton Jr. at the LSU 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:45100% → 100%
Q4 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+6
0.3%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Brian Thomas Jr. for 6 yds to the LSU 21Similar
Q4 9:01
2ND & 4
OWN 21
0
0.3%
Garrett Nussmeier pass incomplete to Chris Hilton Jr.Similar
Q4 8:56
3RD & 4
OWN 21
0
0.3%
Garrett Nussmeier pass incomplete to Ka'Morreun PimptonSimilar
Q4 8:45
4TH & 4
OWN 21
0
0.3%
Jay Bramblett punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MSST 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 20TD
10 plays · 58 yds · 4:130% → 0%
Q4 8:39
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+9
0.2%
Jo'Quavious Marks run for 9 yds to the LSU 49Similar
Q4 8:11
2ND & 1
OPP 49
+14
0.2%
Lideatrick Griffin run for 14 yds to the LSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:34
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
0.2%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Lideatrick GriffinSimilar
Q4 7:28
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+13
0.2%
Will Rogers pass complete to Seth Davis for 13 yds to the LSU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:58
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
0.2%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Seth DavisSimilar
Q4 6:53
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+6
0.2%
Jeffery Pittman run for 6 yds to the LSU 16Similar
Q4 6:17
3RD & 4
OPP 16
+5
0.2%
Mike Wright run for 5 yds to the LSU 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:43
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+3
0.2%
Seth Davis run for 3 yds to the LSU 8Similar
Q4 5:04
2ND & 7
OPP 8
+4
0.2%
Will Rogers pass complete to Lideatrick Griffin for 4 yds to the LSU 4Similar
Q4 4:26
3RD & 3
OPP 4
+4
0.3%
Mike Wright pass complete to Antonio Harmon for 4 yds for a TD (Kyle Ferrie KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 21END OF GAME
7 plays · 14 yds · 3:41100% → 100%
Q4 4:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
0.2%
Noah Cain run for 9 yds to the LSU 34Similar
Q4 3:27
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+3
0.2%
Noah Cain run for 3 yds to the LSU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:37
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
0.2%
Kaleb Jackson run for 2 yds to the LSU 39Similar
Q4 1:50
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+2
0.1%
Kaleb Jackson run for 2 yds to the LSU 41Similar
Q4 1:08
3RD & 6
OWN 41
-5
0.1%
LSU Penalty, False Start (DJ Chester) to the LSU 36Similar
Q4 0:38
3RD & 11
OWN 36
+3
0.1%
Noah Cain run for 3 yds to the LSU 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 3:24
Josh Williams run for 1 yd for a TD (Damian Ramos KICK)
-7.3
TD · Q2 0:50
Lideatrick Griffin run for 9 yds for a TD (Kyle Ferrie KICK)
+6.5
FG · Q3 10:41
Damian Ramos 41 yd FG GOOD
-4.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com