Try the model
MUR

Murray State 14 at Middle Tennessee 35

MTSU
2023 · Week 3 · Sep 16, 2023 · Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · MTSU
modelMTSU aheadMUR aheadconfidence bandkey playMTSU scoreMUR score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 1:58 · Trey Turk punt for 42 yds, downed at the MUR 40
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+48.5+24.30−24.3−48.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 34Pregame prior+43.7Home team on offense+5.1Score differential+2.8Garbage-time factor+1.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.5Time remaining+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 10:49: DJ Williams pass complete to Cole Rusk for 12 yds for a TD (Matt Maldonado KICK) — MUR win probability +1.6 pts (now 4%) (top driver: MUR has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q3 6:56: Middle Tennessee Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MTSU 35 — MTSU win probability +2.2 pts (now 97%) (top driver: MTSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 3:56: Jekail Middlebrook run for 18 yds for a TD (Zeke Rankin KICK) — MTSU win probability +1.6 pts (now 99%) (top driver: MTSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 9:44: Cortezz Jones run for 3 yds for a TD (Matt Maldonado KICK) — MUR win probability +3.5 pts (now 4%) (top driver: MUR has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 8:46: Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Jeremy Tate Jr. for 40 yds for a TD (Zeke Rankin KICK) — MTSU win probability +1.6 pts (now 99%) (top driver: MTSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MTSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 7MUR made the numbers' call on 5 of 8
  1. Q1 9:24MTSU 4th & 15 at MUR 30, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 97.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.0%−0.1
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    97.1%
    56% to make
    Punt
    97.1%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:12MUR 4th & 15 at MUR 37, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.1%−0.1
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.2%
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:53MUR 4th & 18 at MUR 15, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.8%−0.2
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.0%
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:58MTSU 4th & 18 at MTSU 18, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.7%−0.3
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.0%
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:49MUR 4th & 7 at MUR 43, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.4%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.5%
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:45MTSU 4th & 2 at MTSU 33, up 14
    Close callPunted · 96.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:25MUR 4th & 1 at MTSU 8, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    4.2%−0.4
    90% to make
    Punt
    3.2%−1.4
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:34MUR 4th & 1 at MUR 22, down 14
    Close callPunted · 4.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.2%−0.1
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:48MTSU 4th & 6 at MTSU 47, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.5%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.6%
    average punt
  10. Q3 12:00MTSU 4th & 5 at MUR 8, up 14
    Close callWent for it · 95.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    95.5%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    95.6%
    90% to make
    Punt
    93.8%−1.8
    average punt
  11. Q3 10:30MUR 4th & 10 at MUR 8, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 4.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.9%−0.4
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    4.3%
    average punt
  12. Q3 0:52MUR 4th & 4 at MUR 41, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.2%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.2%
    average punt
  13. Q4 13:50MTSU 4th & 1 at MTSU 17, up 21
    Close callPunted · 99.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.0%−0.2
    average punt
  14. Q4 6:27MUR 4th & 10 at MTSU 27, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.5%−0.3
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    0.9%
    62% to make
    Punt
    0.2%−0.6
    average punt
  15. Q4 2:48MTSU 4th & 22 at MTSU 36, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.2%−0.2
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.4%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MTSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5MUR made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q1 11:54MTSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 5:50MTSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 12:56MTSU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 10:49MUR Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    3.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    3.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 3:56MTSU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 9:44MUR Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    3.1%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    3.2%
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 8:46MTSU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MTSUDrive 1TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:0198% → 98%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
98.3%
Jaiden Credle run for no gain to the MTSU 25Similar
Q1 14:30
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+30
98.2%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to DJ England-Chisolm for 30 yds to the MUR 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:07
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
98.2%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Elijah Metcalf for no gain to the MUR 45Similar
Q1 13:44
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+5
98.1%
Murray State Penalty, Delay Of Game (Cody Goatley) to the MUR 40Similar
Q1 13:31
2ND & 5
OPP 40
+3
98.1%
Jaiden Credle run for 3 yds to the MUR 37Similar
Q1 13:04
3RD & 2
OPP 37
+17
98.1%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Zack Dobson for 17 yds to the MUR 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:40
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+11
98.0%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Javonte Sherman for 11 yds to the MUR 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-5
98.0%
Middle Tennessee Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MUR 14Similar
Q1 11:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 14
+14
98.0%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Jaiden Credle for 14 yds for a TD (Zeke Rankin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MURDrive 2FUMBLE
3 plays · 5 yds · 0:532% → 2%
Q1 11:49
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-10
98.0%
(11:49) WILLIAMS, DJ pass short to the left incomplete intended for MORGAN, Kywon thrown to the MSU23; QB hurried by HUGHES, Parker, clock 11:40. PENALTY MSU Holding on WILLIAMSON, Cole enforced 10 yards from the MSU20 to the MSU10 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 11:27
1ST & 20
OWN 10
+10
98.0%
Kywon Morgan run for 10 yds to the MUR 20Similar
Q1 10:56
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+5
97.9%
DJ Williams pass complete to Taylor Shields for 5 yds Taylor Shields fumbled, recovered by MTSU Parker HughesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 3MISSED FG
4 plays · -5 yds · 1:2698% → 98%
Q1 10:50
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-15
98.0%
Middle Tennessee Penalty, Personal Foul (Sterling Porcher) to the MUR 40Similar
Q1 10:46
2ND & 25
OPP 40
+6
97.9%
Nicholas Vattiato run for 6 yds to the MUR 34Similar
Q1 10:12
3RD & 19
OPP 34
+4
97.9%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Zack Dobson for 4 yds to the MUR 30Similar
Q1 9:24
4TH & 15
OPP 30
+47
97.8%
Zeke Rankin 47 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MURDrive 4PUNT
8 plays · 7 yds · 3:122% → 3%
Q1 9:24
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-2
97.8%
DJ Williams run for a loss of 2 yards to the MUR 28Similar
Q1 8:48
2ND & 12
OWN 28
+3
97.7%
Kywon Morgan run for 3 yds to the MUR 31Similar
Q1 8:14
3RD & 9
OWN 31
+11
97.7%
DJ Williams pass complete to Michael Fox for 11 yds to the MUR 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:52
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-2
97.6%
DJ Williams pass complete to Jacob Bell for a loss of 2 yards to the MUR 40Similar
Q1 7:15
2ND & 12
OWN 40
-5
97.5%
Murray State Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MUR 35Similar
Q1 6:55
2ND & 17
OWN 35
+2
97.5%
DJ Williams pass complete to Taylor Shields for 2 yds to the MUR 37Similar
Q1 6:17
3RD & 15
OWN 37
0
97.5%
DJ Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:12
4TH & 15
OWN 37
0
97.5%
Orion Phillips punt for 37 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 5TD
1 play · 71 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q1 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+71
97.8%
Jaiden Credle run for 71 yds for a TD (Zeke Rankin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MURDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · -8 yds · 1:522% → 2%
Q1 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+1
97.7%
Kywon Morgan run for 1 yd to the MUR 24Similar
Q1 5:07
2ND & 9
OWN 24
-9
97.7%
DJ Williams sacked by Sam Brumfield for a loss of 9 yards to the MUR 15Similar
Q1 4:25
3RD & 18
OWN 15
0
97.6%
DJ Williams pass complete to Kywon Morgan for no gain to the MUR 15Similar
Q1 3:53
4TH & 18
OWN 15
0
97.6%
Orion Phillips punt for 59 yds, downed at the MTSU 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · -8 yds · 1:4598% → 98%
Q1 3:43
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
97.7%
Jekail Middlebrook run for no gain to the MTSU 26Similar
Q1 3:16
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+1
97.7%
Jekail Middlebrook run for 1 yd to the MTSU 27Similar
Q1 2:59
3RD & 9
OWN 27
-10
97.6%
(02:59) VATTIATO, Nicholas pass to the right complete for 10 yards to ENGLAND-CHISOLM, DJ caught at the MTS35 and advanced to the MTS37 (ALBERTY, Charles), clock 02:52. PENALTY MTS Holding on HAYES, Devin enforced 10 yards from the MTS27 to the MTS17 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 2:44
3RD & 19
OWN 17
+1
97.6%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Javonte Sherman for 1 yd to the MTSU 18Similar
Q1 1:58
4TH & 18
OWN 18
0
97.5%
Trey Turk punt for 42 yds, downed at the MUR 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MURDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:583% → 3%
Q1 1:47
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+8
97.4%
Cortezz Jones run for 8 yds to the MUR 48Similar
Q1 1:10
2ND & 2
OWN 48
-8
97.2%
DJ Williams sacked by Brandon Buckner for a loss of 8 yards to the MUR 40Similar
Q1 0:28
3RD & 10
OWN 40
+3
97.3%
DJ Williams pass complete to Cole Rusk for 3 yds to the MUR 43Similar
Q2 14:49
4TH & 7
OWN 43
0
97.2%
Orion Phillips punt for 45 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 9TD
7 plays · 73 yds · 1:4797% → 98%
Q2 14:43
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+1
97.4%
Zack Dobson run for 1 yd to the MTSU 28Similar
Q2 14:27
2ND & 9
OWN 28
+10
97.4%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Jeremy Tate Jr. for 10 yds to the MTSU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+16
97.5%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to DJ England-Chisolm for 16 yds to the MUR 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:44
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
97.5%
Nicholas Vattiato run for 4 yds to the MUR 42Similar
Q2 13:21
2ND & 6
OPP 42
+17
97.5%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Javonte Sherman for 17 yds to the MUR 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:21
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
97.5%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:56
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+25
98.4%
Jekail Middlebrook run for 25 yds for a TD (Zeke Rankin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MURDrive 10TD
4 plays · 69 yds · 1:562% → 4%
Q2 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-2
98.3%
Cortezz Jones run for a loss of 2 yards to the MUR 29Similar
Q2 12:25
2ND & 12
OWN 29
+55
98.3%
Cortezz Jones run for 55 yds to the MTSU 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:08
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+4
98.1%
Cortezz Jones run for 4 yds to the MTSU 12Similar
Q2 10:49
2ND & 6
OPP 12
+12
96.5%
DJ Williams pass complete to Cole Rusk for 12 yds for a TD (Matt Maldonado KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:0497% → 97%
Q2 10:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
97.2%
Jekail Middlebrook run for no gain to the MTSU 25Similar
Q2 10:34
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
97.2%
Nicholas Vattiato run for 4 yds to the MTSU 29Similar
Q2 10:06
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+4
97.0%
Nicholas Vattiato run for 4 yds to the MTSU 33Similar
Q2 9:45
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
97.0%
Miles Tillman punt for 54 yds, downed at the MUR 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MURDrive 12DOWNS
10 plays · 78 yds · 4:413% → 4%
Q2 9:06
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+2
96.8%
Kywon Morgan run for 2 yds to the MUR 15Similar
Q2 8:33
2ND & 8
OWN 15
+5
96.7%
DJ Williams pass complete to Taylor Shields for 5 yds to the MUR 20Similar
Q2 7:43
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
96.5%
DJ Williams pass complete to Cortezz Jones for no gain Cortezz Jones fumbled, recovered by MUR Cortezz JonesSimilar
Q2 7:43
3RD & 3
OWN 20
+44
96.7%
DJ Williams pass complete to Cole Rusk for 44 yds to the MTSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:05
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+4
96.4%
Cortezz Jones run for 4 yds to the MTSU 32Similar
Q2 6:30
3RD & 6
OPP 32
+15
96.3%
(06:30) WILLIAMS, DJ pass deep to the left incomplete intended for BELL, Jacob thrown to the MTS0, clock 06:06. PENALTY MTS Pass Interference on STANLEY, Deonte enforced 15 yards to the MTS17 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 5:35
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+4
96.0%
Cortezz Jones run for 4 yds to the MTSU 13Similar
Q2 5:04
2ND & 6
OPP 13
+2
95.9%
Cortezz Jones run for 2 yds to the MTSU 11Similar
Q2 4:55
3RD & 4
OPP 11
+3
96.0%
DJ Williams run for 3 yds to the MTSU 8Similar
Q2 4:25
4TH & 1
OPP 8
-1
96.1%
DJ Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the MTSU 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 13INT
6 plays · 56 yds · 1:3296% → 97%
Q2 3:32
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+14
96.4%
Jaiden Credle run for 14 yds to the MTSU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:34
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+29
96.5%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Jeremy Tate Jr. for 29 yds to the MUR 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:06
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+13
96.6%
Nicholas Vattiato run for 13 yds to the MUR 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
96.8%
Nicholas Vattiato pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MURDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:224% → 4%
Q2 1:56
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+3
95.9%
Cortezz Jones run for 3 yds to the MUR 16Similar
Q2 1:51
2ND & 7
OWN 16
+4
95.9%
DJ Williams pass complete to Cole Rusk for 4 yds to the MUR 20Similar
Q2 1:36
3RD & 3
OWN 20
+2
96.0%
DJ Williams pass complete to Cortezz Jones for 2 yds to the MUR 22Similar
Q2 1:34
4TH & 1
OWN 22
0
96.1%
Orion Phillips punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Zack Dobson at the MTSU 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 15PUNT
9 plays · 18 yds · 0:4397% → 96%
Q2 1:31
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+9
96.6%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to DJ England-Chisolm for 9 yds to the MTSU 38Similar
Q2 1:08
2ND & 1
OWN 38
+5
96.7%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Jekail Middlebrook for 5 yds to the MTSU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:54
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
96.8%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:52
2ND & 10
OWN 43
-5
96.7%
Middle Tennessee Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MTSU 38Similar
Q2 0:51
2ND & 15
OWN 38
+10
96.6%
Nicholas Vattiato run for 10 yds to the MTSU 48Similar
Q2 0:49
3RD & 5
OWN 48
-1
96.6%
Jekail Middlebrook run for a loss of 1 yard to the MTSU 47Similar
Q2 0:48
4TH & 6
OWN 47
+5
96.4%
Murray State Penalty, Offsides (Matthew Baker) to the MUR 48Similar
Q2 0:48
4TH & 1
OPP 48
-5
96.4%
Middle Tennessee Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MTSU 47Similar
Q2 0:48
4TH & 6
OWN 47
0
96.4%
Trey Turk punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Michael Fox at the MUR 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MURDrive 16END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q2 0:48
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-1
95.9%
Kywon Morgan run for a loss of 1 yard to the MUR 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MURDrive 17FUMBLE
2 plays · 6 yds · 0:244% → 4%
Q3 14:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
96.3%
DJ Williams pass complete to Q'Daryius Jennings for 5 yds to the MUR 30Similar
Q3 14:35
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+1
96.0%
DJ Williams pass complete to Michael Fox for 1 yd Michael Fox fumbled, recovered by MTSU Zaylin WoodSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 18DOWNS
7 plays · 23 yds · 2:2497% → 96%
Q3 14:24
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+3
96.6%
Jaiden Credle run for 3 yds to the MUR 28Similar
Q3 13:56
2ND & 7
OPP 28
+6
96.6%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Kalani Norris for 6 yds to the MUR 22Similar
Q3 13:37
3RD & 1
OPP 22
+9
96.4%
Jaiden Credle run for 9 yds to the MUR 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:08
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+3
96.6%
Jaiden Credle run for 3 yds to the MUR 10Similar
Q3 12:54
2ND & 7
OPP 10
+2
96.6%
Jaiden Credle run for 2 yds to the MUR 8Similar
Q3 12:35
3RD & 5
OPP 8
0
96.4%
Jaiden Credle run for no gain to the MUR 8Similar
Q3 12:00
4TH & 5
OPP 8
0
96.2%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MURDrive 19FUMBLE
12 plays · 82 yds · 5:044% → 4%
Q3 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 8
0
96.2%
DJ Williams run for no gain to the MUR 8Similar
Q3 11:14
2ND & 10
OWN 8
0
96.2%
DJ Williams run for no gain to the MUR 8Similar
Q3 10:36
3RD & 10
OWN 8
0
96.2%
DJ Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:30
4TH & 10
OWN 8
+30
96.2%
Nick Walker run for 30 yds to the MUR 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:42
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
95.4%
(09:42) WILLIAMS, DJ pass deep to the right incomplete intended for EKE, Golden broken up by STANLEY, Deonte at the MTS22; QB hurried by WOOD, Zaylin, clock 09:35. PENALTY Before the snap, MTS Illegal Substitution enforced 5 yards from the MSU38 to the MSU43. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 9:35
1ST & 5
OWN 43
+5
95.3%
Cortezz Jones run for 5 yds to the MUR 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:51
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+13
95.2%
Cortezz Jones run for 13 yds to the MTSU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:16
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
95.0%
Cortezz Jones run for 4 yds to the MTSU 35Similar
Q3 7:44
2ND & 6
OPP 35
+23
94.4%
Cortezz Jones run for 23 yds to the MTSU 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:08
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+2
94.3%
Cortezz Jones run for 2 yds to the MTSU 40 Cortezz Jones fumbled, recovered by MTSU Marley CookSimilar
Q3 6:56
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-5
96.5%
Middle Tennessee Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MTSU 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 20TD
9 plays · 60 yds · 3:0097% → 99%
Q3 6:56
1ST & 15
OWN 35
+3
96.6%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Zack Dobson for 3 yds to the MTSU 38Similar
Q3 6:20
2ND & 12
OWN 38
+8
96.7%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Elijah Metcalf for 8 yds to the MTSU 46Similar
Q3 5:53
3RD & 4
OWN 46
+4
96.6%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Jekail Middlebrook for 4 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:31
1ST & 10
50
+15
96.8%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Javonte Sherman for 15 yds to the MUR 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:12
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+2
96.8%
Nicholas Vattiato run for 2 yds to the MUR 33Similar
Q3 4:42
2ND & 8
OPP 33
+7
96.9%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Elijah Metcalf for 7 yds to the MUR 26Similar
Q3 4:09
3RD & 1
OPP 26
+8
96.9%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Javonte Sherman for 8 yds to the MUR 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:56
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
98.7%
Jekail Middlebrook run for 18 yds for a TD (Zeke Rankin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MURDrive 21PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 2:581% → 1%
Q3 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+1
98.9%
Kywon Morgan run for 1 yd to the MUR 22Similar
Q3 3:15
2ND & 9
OWN 22
+6
98.9%
DJ Williams pass complete to Cole Rusk for 6 yds to the MUR 28Similar
Q3 2:32
3RD & 3
OWN 28
+7
98.8%
DJ Williams pass complete to Jacob Bell for 7 yds to the MUR 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:07
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
98.9%
Q'Daryius Jennings run for 3 yds to the MUR 38Similar
Q3 1:34
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+3
99.0%
Kywon Morgan run for 3 yds to the MUR 41Similar
Q3 1:01
3RD & 4
OWN 41
0
99.0%
DJ Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:52
4TH & 4
OWN 41
0
99.1%
Orion Phillips punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Zack Dobson at the MTSU 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:5699% → 99%
Q3 0:46
1ST & 10
OWN 8
-2
99.2%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Kellen Stewart for a loss of 2 yards to the MTSU 6Similar
Q4 14:45
2ND & 12
OWN 6
+7
99.2%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Bryce Bailey for 7 yds to the MTSU 13Similar
Q4 14:18
3RD & 5
OWN 13
+4
99.2%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Justin Olson for 4 yds to the MTSU 17Similar
Q4 13:50
4TH & 1
OWN 17
0
99.3%
Miles Tillman punt for 33 yds, downed at the MUR 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MURDrive 23TD
11 plays · 65 yds · 3:571% → 4%
Q4 13:41
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
99.3%
DJ Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:35
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+8
99.3%
Cortezz Jones run for 8 yds to the MUR 43Similar
Q4 12:52
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+5
99.3%
DJ Williams pass complete to Michael Fox for 5 yds to the MUR 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:36
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
99.3%
DJ Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:31
2ND & 10
OWN 48
-3
99.3%
DJ Williams pass complete to Q'Daryius Jennings for a loss of 3 yards to the MUR 45Similar
Q4 11:52
3RD & 13
OWN 45
+5
99.4%
Middle Tennessee Penalty, Offsides (5 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 11:35
3RD & 8
50
+5
99.3%
DJ Williams run for 5 yds to the MTSU 45Similar
Q4 10:45
4TH & 3
OPP 45
+15
99.3%
(10:45) WILLIAMS, DJ pass deep to the right incomplete intended for SHIELDS, Taylor thrown to the MTS15, clock 10:41. PENALTY MTS Pass Interference on ROSS, Teldrick enforced 15 yards to the MTS30 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 10:41
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+27
99.2%
DJ Williams pass complete to Parker Perry for 27 yds to the MTSU 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
99.2%
DJ Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:44
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
95.7%
Cortezz Jones run for 3 yds for a TD (Matt Maldonado KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 24TD
3 plays · 67 yds · 0:5398% → 99%
Q4 9:39
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+25
97.7%
Jaiden Credle run for 25 yds to the MUR 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:12
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+2
97.8%
Jaiden Credle run for 2 yds to the MUR 40Similar
Q4 8:46
2ND & 8
OPP 40
+40
99.4%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Jeremy Tate Jr. for 40 yds for a TD (Zeke Rankin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MURDrive 25DOWNS
9 plays · 57 yds · 2:111% → 1%
Q4 8:38
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+7
99.4%
DJ Williams pass complete to Jacob Bell for 7 yds to the MUR 30Similar
Q4 8:04
2ND & 3
OWN 30
+29
99.4%
DJ Williams pass complete to Cortezz Jones for 29 yds to the MTSU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:36
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
99.3%
DJ Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:29
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+14
99.3%
DJ Williams pass complete to Cole Rusk for 14 yds to the MTSU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:06
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-10
99.3%
(07:06) WILLIAMS, DJ pass short to the left complete for 15 yards to JONES, Cortezz caught at the MTS24 and advanced to the MTS12 (HUGHES, Parker), clock 06:59. PENALTY MSU Holding on FRYE, Jacob enforced 10 yards from the MTS27 to the MTS37 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 6:44
1ST & 20
OPP 37
0
99.5%
DJ Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:41
2ND & 20
OPP 37
+10
99.5%
DJ Williams pass complete to Jacob Bell for 10 yds to the MTSU 27Similar
Q4 6:32
3RD & 10
OPP 27
0
99.5%
DJ Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:27
4TH & 10
OPP 27
+7
99.5%
DJ Williams run for 7 yds to the MTSU 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 26PUNT
8 plays · 16 yds · 3:3099% → 100%
Q4 6:18
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
99.4%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Zack Dobson for no gain to the MTSU 20Similar
Q4 5:42
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+3
99.5%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Kalani Norris for 3 yds to the MTSU 23Similar
Q4 5:05
3RD & 7
OWN 23
+25
99.5%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Justin Olson for 25 yds to the MTSU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:29
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-2
99.6%
Nicholas Vattiato run for a loss of 2 yards to the MTSU 46 Nicholas Vattiato fumbled, recovered by MTSU Nicholas VattiatoSimilar
Q4 3:58
2ND & 12
OWN 46
0
99.6%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Justin Olson for no gain to the MTSU 46Similar
Q4 3:24
3RD & 12
OWN 46
-10
99.6%
(03:24) VATTIATO, Nicholas pass short to the right complete for 7 yards to MIDDLEBROOK, Jekail caught at the MTS48 and advanced to the MSU47 (WILLIFORD, Caldra;WALKER, Nick), clock 03:16. PENALTY MTS Holding enforced 10 yards from the MTS46 to the MTS36 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 2:54
3RD & 22
OWN 36
0
99.6%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:48
4TH & 22
OWN 36
0
99.6%
Trey Turk punt for 47 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MURDrive 27END OF GAME
5 plays · 24 yds · 2:070% → 0%
Q4 2:37
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+5
99.6%
Jayden Stinson run for 5 yds to the MUR 24Similar
Q4 1:49
2ND & 5
OWN 24
+4
99.6%
Kywon Morgan run for 4 yds to the MUR 28Similar
Q4 1:45
3RD & 1
OWN 28
+6
99.6%
Kywon Morgan run for 6 yds to the MUR 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:16
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+4
99.6%
Kywon Morgan run for 4 yds to the MUR 38Similar
Q4 0:30
2ND & 6
OWN 38
+5
99.6%
Kylan Galbreath run for 5 yds to the MUR 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 9:44
Cortezz Jones run for 3 yds for a TD (Matt Maldonado KICK)
-3.5
KEY PLAY · Q3 6:56
Middle Tennessee Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MTSU 35
+2.2
TD · Q2 10:49
DJ Williams pass complete to Cole Rusk for 12 yds for a TD (Matt Maldonado KICK)
-1.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com