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WASH

Washington 41 at Michigan State 7

MSU
2023 · Week 3 · Sep 16, 2023 · Spartan Stadium
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Win probability · MSU
modelMSU aheadWASH aheadconfidence bandkey playMSU scoreWASH score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 7:31 · Ryan Eckley punt for 52 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+58.0+29.00−29.0−58.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 18Home team on offense−2.0Pregame prior−34.0Score differential−0.3Garbage-time factor−0.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 9:51: Germie Bernard run for 1 yd for a TD (Grady Gross KICK) — WASH win probability +0.1 pts (now 85%) (top driver: WASH has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 1:14: Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Jack Westover for 5 yds for a TD (Grady Gross KICK) — WASH win probability +2.4 pts (now 87%) (top driver: WASH has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 10:44: Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Ja'Lynn Polk for 30 yds for a TD (Grady Gross KICK) — WASH win probability +1.7 pts (now 91%) (top driver: WASH has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 6:49: Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Jack Westover for 13 yds for a TD (Grady Gross KICK) — WASH win probability +2.5 pts (now 95%) (top driver: WASH has the ball).
  5. TD · Q2 0:06: Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Jack Westover for 7 yds for a TD (Grady Gross KICK) — WASH win probability +1.3 pts (now 98%) (top driver: WASH has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MSU made the numbers' call on 9 of 9WASH made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
  1. Q1 12:03MSU 4th & 24 at MSU 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.1%−0.2
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.3%
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:31MSU 4th & 3 at MSU 32, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.7%−0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.8%
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:50WASH 4th & 15 at WASH 39, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.6%−0.6
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.3%
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:23MSU 4th & 17 at WASH 41, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.4%−0.5
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    17.7%−0.2
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    17.9%
    average punt
  5. Q2 8:30MSU 4th & 13 at MSU 12, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.4%−0.9
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.3%
    average punt
  6. Q2 4:45MSU 4th & 8 at MSU 46, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.0%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.0%
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:50WASH 4th & 20 at MSU 37, up 28
    Close callPunted · 94.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.4%−0.1
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    94.5%
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    94.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:41MSU 4th & 4 at WASH 34, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    3.5%−<0.1
    47% to make
    Punt
    3.4%−0.1
    average punt
  9. Q3 10:43WASH 4th & 4 at MSU 4, up 35
    Close callKicked a field goal · 97.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.9%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    97.8%−<0.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    97.4%−0.5
    average punt
  10. Q3 8:33MSU 4th & 13 at MSU 44, down 38
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.0%−0.1
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.2%
    average punt
  11. Q3 3:45WASH 4th & 6 at MSU 12, up 38
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 98.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.8%−<0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    98.8%
    86% to make
    Punt
    98.4%−0.5
    average punt
  12. Q3 2:57MSU 4th & 6 at MSU 29, down 41
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.5%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.5%
    average punt
  13. Q4 13:26WASH 4th & 6 at MSU 35, up 41
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.5%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    99.4%−<0.1
    45% to make
    Punt
    99.4%−0.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 12:31MSU 4th & 12 at MSU 33, down 41
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−0.1
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
  15. Q4 5:48WASH 4th & 1 at MSU 34, up 34
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    99.6%−0.2
    47% to make
    Punt
    99.5%−0.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1WASH made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 9:51WASH Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 1:14WASH Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 10:44WASH Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 6:49WASH Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:06WASH Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 5:48MSU Touchdown, down 35 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MSUDrive 1PUNT
9 plays · 8 yds · 2:5214% → 15%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-1
13.8%
Nathan Carter run for a loss of 1 yard to the MSU 26Similar
Q1 14:55
2ND & 11
OWN 26
+9
13.8%
Noah Kim pass complete to Tre Mosley for 9 yds to the MSU 35Similar
Q1 14:55
3RD & 2
OWN 35
+4
13.8%
Nathan Carter run for 4 yds to the MSU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:18
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-9
15.0%
Noah Kim sacked by Zion Tupuola-Fetui for a loss of 9 yards to the MSU 30Similar
Q1 12:18
2ND & 19
OWN 30
0
14.9%
Noah Kim pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:18
3RD & 19
OWN 30
0
14.9%
Noah Kim pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:18
4TH & 19
OWN 30
-5
14.8%
Michigan State Penalty, Illegal Substitution (-5 Yards) to the MSU 25Similar
Q1 12:03
4TH & 24
OWN 25
0
14.9%
Ryan Eckley punt for 30 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 2TD
4 plays · 55 yds · 2:1285% → 85%
Q1 12:03
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+39
14.9%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Jalen McMillan for 39 yds to the MSU 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:03
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+9
14.8%
Dillon Johnson run for 9 yds to the MSU 7Similar
Q1 12:03
2ND & 1
OPP 7
+6
14.8%
Dillon Johnson run for 6 yds to the MSU 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
14.7%
Germie Bernard run for 1 yd for a TD (Grady Gross KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 2:2015% → 15%
Q1 9:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
14.9%
Nathan Carter run for 1 yd to the MSU 26Similar
Q1 9:51
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+6
14.9%
Noah Kim pass complete to Tre Mosley for 6 yds to the MSU 32Similar
Q1 9:51
3RD & 3
OWN 32
-5
14.9%
Michigan State Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MSU 27Similar
Q1 9:51
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+5
14.8%
Noah Kim pass complete to Maliq Carr for 5 yds to the MSU 32Similar
Q1 7:31
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
15.3%
Ryan Eckley punt for 52 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 4PUNT
13 plays · 22 yds · 4:4184% → 83%
Q1 7:31
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+9
15.7%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Rome Odunze for 9 yds to the WASH 26Similar
Q1 7:31
2ND & 1
OWN 26
+7
15.5%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Rome Odunze for 7 yds to the WASH 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:31
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+6
15.5%
Dillon Johnson run for 6 yds to the WASH 39Similar
Q1 7:31
2ND & 4
OWN 39
+5
15.4%
Dillon Johnson run for 5 yds to the WASH 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:31
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-10
15.3%
PENIX JR., Michael pass short to the right complete for 21 yards to JOHNSON, Dillon caught at the UW45 and advanced to the MSU35 (BRULE, Aaron). PENALTY UW Holding on FAUTANU, Troy enforced 10 yards from the UW44 to the UW34 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 7:31
1ST & 20
OWN 34
+4
15.7%
Will Nixon run for 4 yds to the WASH 38Similar
Q1 7:31
2ND & 16
OWN 38
+11
15.6%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Will Nixon for 11 yds to the WASH 49Similar
Q1 3:04
3RD & 5
OWN 49
-5
16.0%
Washington Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the WASH 44Similar
Q1 3:04
3RD & 10
OWN 44
0
16.2%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:04
4TH & 10
OWN 44
-5
16.6%
Washington Penalty, Delay Of Game (Jabbar Muhammad) to the WASH 39Similar
Q1 2:50
4TH & 15
OWN 39
0
16.8%
Jack McCallister punt for 36 ydsSimilar
Q1 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+15
16.6%
KIM, Noah pass deep to the right incomplete intended for GLOVER, Jaron thrown to the UW40. PENALTY UW Pass Interference on JACKSON, Elijah enforced 15 yards to the MSU41 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 5INT
3 plays · 18 yds · 0:2917% → 17%
Q1 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
17.0%
Nathan Carter run for 3 yds to the MSU 44Similar
Q1 2:50
2ND & 7
OWN 44
0
17.0%
Noah Kim pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:21
3RD & 7
OWN 44
0
17.0%
Noah Kim pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 6TD
3 plays · 44 yds · 1:0784% → 87%
Q1 2:21
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+38
15.8%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Ja'Lynn Polk for 38 yds to the MSU 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
15.7%
Germie Bernard run for 1 yd to the MSU 5Similar
Q1 1:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
13.3%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Jack Westover for 5 yds for a TD (Grady Gross KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 7PUNT
12 plays · 34 yds · 3:5113% → 12%
Q1 1:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
12.5%
Nathan Carter run for 1 yd to the MSU 26Similar
Q1 1:14
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+16
12.5%
Noah Kim pass complete to Tyrell Henry for 16 yds to the MSU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
12.9%
Jordon Simmons run for 2 yds to the MSU 44Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 44
+11
12.8%
Noah Kim pass complete to Jaron Glover for 11 yds to the WASH 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+9
13.0%
Nathan Carter run for 9 yds to the WASH 36Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 36
0
13.0%
Noah Kim pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 36
+2
12.8%
Noah Kim run for 2 yds to the WASH 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
13.1%
Noah Kim pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 34
0
13.1%
Noah Kim pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 34
-7
12.9%
Noah Kim sacked by Zion Tupuola-Fetui for a loss of 7 yards to the WASH 41Similar
Q2 12:23
4TH & 17
OPP 41
0
12.2%
Ryan Eckley punt for 36 yds, downed at the WASH 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 8TD
3 plays · 95 yds · 1:3988% → 91%
Q2 12:23
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+50
11.7%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Rome Odunze for 50 yds to the MSU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:23
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+15
11.1%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Ja'Lynn Polk for 15 yds to the MSU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:44
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+30
9.5%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Ja'Lynn Polk for 30 yds for a TD (Grady Gross KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 9PUNT
7 plays · -3 yds · 2:0915% → 7%
Q2 10:39
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+1
15.1%
Jordon Simmons run for 1 yd to the MSU 16Similar
Q2 10:39
2ND & 9
OWN 16
+5
15.1%
Noah Kim run for 5 yds to the MSU 21Similar
Q2 10:39
3RD & 4
OWN 21
-5
14.3%
KIM, Noah pass short to the right complete for 11 yards to MOSLEY, Tre caught at the MSU26 and advanced to the MSU32 (FOWLER, Drew), out of bounds. PENALTY Before the snap, MSU Illegal Formation enforced 5 yards from the MSU21 to the MSU16. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 10:39
3RD & 9
OWN 16
0
15.0%
Michigan State Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Alante Brown) to the MSU 8Similar
Q2 10:39
3RD & 17
OWN 8
+4
15.3%
Jordon Simmons run for 4 yds to the MSU 12Similar
Q2 8:30
4TH & 13
OWN 12
0
7.3%
Ryan Eckley punt for 36 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 10TD
4 plays · 48 yds · 1:4192% → 95%
Q2 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+16
7.6%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Jalen McMillan for 16 yds to the MSU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+12
7.4%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Germie Bernard for 12 yds to the MSU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+7
7.6%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Jalen McMillan for 7 yds to the MSU 13Similar
Q2 6:49
2ND & 3
OPP 13
+13
5.1%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Jack Westover for 13 yds for a TD (Grady Gross KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 11PUNT
8 plays · 34 yds · 1:574% → 6%
Q2 6:42
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
3.5%
Noah Kim pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:42
2ND & 10
OWN 12
+6
3.4%
Noah Kim pass complete to Tre Mosley for 6 yds to the MSU 18Similar
Q2 6:42
3RD & 4
OWN 18
+15
3.0%
Washington Penalty, Personal Foul (Ralen Goforth) to the MSU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:42
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
3.7%
Noah Kim pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:42
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+2
3.5%
Noah Kim pass complete to Nathan Carter for 2 yds to the MSU 46Similar
Q2 6:42
3RD & 8
OWN 46
0
3.5%
Noah Kim pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:45
4TH & 8
OWN 46
0
2.6%
Michael O'Shaughnessy punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Jalen McMillan at the WASH 19Similar
Q2 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+15
5.5%
PENIX JR., Michael pass to the left incomplete intended for ODUNZE, Rome thrown to the UW30; QB hurried by BARROW, Simeon. PENALTY MSU Pass Interference on GROSE, Angelo enforced 15 yards to the UW34 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 12PUNT
9 plays · 44 yds · 2:5595% → 95%
Q2 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
5.5%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:45
2ND & 10
OWN 34
-15
5.5%
Washington Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Ja'Lynn Polk) to the WASH 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+24
5.3%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Rome Odunze for 24 yds to the MSU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:45
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+17
5.0%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Will Nixon for 27 yds Washington Penalty, Offensive Holding (Jalen McMillan) to the MSU 36Similar
Q2 4:45
1ST & 19
OPP 36
+4
5.2%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Germie Bernard for 4 yds to the MSU 32Similar
Q2 4:45
2ND & 15
OPP 32
-5
5.2%
Washington Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MSU 37Similar
Q2 4:45
2ND & 20
OPP 37
0
5.3%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:45
3RD & 20
OPP 37
0
5.5%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:50
4TH & 20
OPP 37
0
4.7%
Jack McCallister punt for 27 yds, fair catch by Tyrell Henry at the MSU 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 13DOWNS
9 plays · 56 yds · 1:092% → 1%
Q2 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
2.3%
Noah Kim pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:50
2ND & 10
OWN 10
+20
2.2%
Noah Kim pass complete to Montorie Foster Jr. for 20 yds to the MSU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+30
2.2%
Noah Kim pass complete to Montorie Foster Jr. for 30 yds to the WASH 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:50
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+6
2.4%
Noah Kim pass complete to Jaron Glover for 6 yds to the WASH 34Similar
Q2 1:50
2ND & 4
OPP 34
0
2.0%
Noah Kim pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:50
3RD & 4
OPP 34
-5
1.9%
Michigan State Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the WASH 39Similar
Q2 1:50
3RD & 9
OPP 39
0
2.2%
Noah Kim pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:50
4TH & 9
OPP 39
+5
2.2%
KIM, Noah pass short to the right incomplete intended for FRANKLIN, Jaylan thrown to the UW35; QB hurried by TRICE, Bralen. PENALTY UW Offsides on TUPUOLA-FETUI, Zion enforced 5 yards from the UW39 to the UW34 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 0:41
4TH & 4
OPP 34
0
1.2%
Noah Kim pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 14TD
6 plays · 66 yds · 0:3597% → 98%
Q2 0:41
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
3.4%
Jalen McMillan run for 2 yds to the WASH 36Similar
Q2 0:41
2ND & 8
OWN 36
+34
3.3%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Jalen McMillan for 34 yds to the MSU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:20
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
2.9%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:20
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+23
2.9%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Rome Odunze for 23 yds to the MSU 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
1.6%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Jack Westover for 7 yds for a TD (Grady Gross KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 15END OF HALF
1 play · 9 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
1.2%
Nathan Carter run for 9 yds to the MSU 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 16FG
8 plays · 66 yds · 4:1098% → 98%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
2.2%
Dillon Johnson run for no gain to the WASH 30Similar
Q3 14:53
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+14
2.1%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Rome Odunze for 14 yds to the WASH 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+7
2.1%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Devin Culp for 7 yds to the MSU 49Similar
Q3 14:53
2ND & 3
OPP 49
+45
2.0%
Dillon Johnson run for 45 yds to the MSU 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
1.9%
Dillon Johnson run for 2 yds to the MSU 2Similar
Q3 14:53
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
-2
1.9%
Dillon Johnson run for a loss of 2 yards to the MSU 4Similar
Q3 14:53
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
2.0%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:43
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+22
2.0%
Grady Gross 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 17PUNT
10 plays · 9 yds · 2:101% → 1%
Q3 10:43
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-2
1.1%
Nathan Carter run for a loss of 2 yards to the MSU 33Similar
Q3 10:43
2ND & 12
OWN 33
0
1.0%
Noah Kim pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:43
3RD & 12
OWN 33
+14
1.0%
Noah Kim pass complete to Maliq Carr for 14 yds to the MSU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:43
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-5
1.1%
Michigan State Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MSU 42Similar
Q3 10:43
1ST & 15
OWN 42
+2
1.1%
Nathan Carter run for 2 yds to the MSU 44Similar
Q3 10:43
2ND & 13
OWN 44
0
1.1%
Noah Kim pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:43
3RD & 13
OWN 44
0
1.1%
Noah Kim pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:33
4TH & 13
OWN 44
0
0.7%
Michael O'Shaughnessy punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Rome Odunze at the WASH 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 18FG
14 plays · 72 yds · 4:3599% → 99%
Q3 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+5
1.2%
Tybo Rogers run for 5 yds to the WASH 21Similar
Q3 8:20
2ND & 5
OWN 21
+4
1.1%
Tybo Rogers run for 4 yds to the WASH 25Similar
Q3 8:20
3RD & 1
OWN 25
-4
1.2%
run for a loss of 4 yards to the WASH 21 fumbled, recovered by WASH Michael Penix Jr.Similar
Q3 6:54
4TH & 5
OWN 21
+5
1.3%
MCCALLISTER, Jack punt 53 yards to the MSU26, HENRY, Tyrell returned 12 yards to the MSU38 (BRUENER, Carson;GREEN, Jaden), clock 06:54. PENALTY Before the snap, MSU Illegal Substitution enforced 5 yards from the UW21 to the UW26 and results in a 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 6:54
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+14
1.0%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Rome Odunze for 14 yds to the WASH 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:54
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
1.0%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:54
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+5
1.0%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Ja'Lynn Polk for 5 yds to the WASH 45Similar
Q3 6:54
3RD & 5
OWN 45
+39
1.0%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Rome Odunze for 39 yds to the MSU 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:54
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
0.9%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:54
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+7
0.9%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Germie Bernard for 7 yds to the MSU 9Similar
Q3 6:54
3RD & 3
OPP 9
-15
0.9%
Washington Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the MSU 24Similar
Q3 6:54
3RD & 18
OPP 24
+12
1.0%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Jack Westover for 12 yds to the MSU 12Similar
Q3 3:45
4TH & 6
OPP 12
+29
0.9%
Grady Gross 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:480% → 0%
Q3 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
0.3%
Noah Kim pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:12
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
0.3%
Nathan Carter run for 4 yds to the MSU 29Similar
Q3 3:12
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
0.3%
Noah Kim pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:57
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
0.2%
Michael O'Shaughnessy punt for 44 yds, downed at the WASH 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 20DOWNS
10 plays · 38 yds · 4:3199% → 100%
Q3 2:57
2ND & 2
OWN 35
+15
0.7%
Tybo Rogers run for 15 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:57
1ST & 10
50
+2
0.6%
Tybo Rogers run for 2 yds to the MSU 48Similar
Q3 2:57
2ND & 8
OPP 48
+3
0.6%
Tybo Rogers run for 3 yds to the MSU 45Similar
Q3 2:57
3RD & 5
OPP 45
+6
0.6%
Dylan Morris pass complete to Mason Wheeler for 6 yds to the MSU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:57
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+8
0.7%
Tybo Rogers run for 8 yds to the WASH 35Similar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-1
0.5%
Tybo Rogers run for a loss of 1 yard to the MSU 40Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 11
OPP 40
0
0.5%
Tybo Rogers run for no gain to the MSU 40Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 11
OPP 40
+5
0.5%
Tybo Rogers run for 5 yds to the MSU 35Similar
Q4 13:26
4TH & 6
OPP 35
0
0.4%
Dylan Morris pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:550% → 0%
Q4 13:26
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
0.1%
Katin Houser pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:26
2ND & 10
OWN 35
-2
0.1%
Nathan Carter run for a loss of 2 yards to the MSU 33Similar
Q4 13:26
3RD & 12
OWN 33
0
0.1%
Katin Houser pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:31
4TH & 12
OWN 33
0
0.1%
Michael O'Shaughnessy punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Denzel Boston at the WASH 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 22INT
3 plays · 59 yds · 1:18100% → 100%
Q4 12:31
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
0.3%
Tybo Rogers run for 2 yds to the WASH 22Similar
Q4 12:31
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+57
0.3%
Dylan Morris pass complete to Josh Cuevas for 57 yds to the MSU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:13
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
0.2%
Dylan Morris pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 23TD
13 plays · 99 yds · 5:250% → 0%
Q4 11:13
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+5
0.1%
Nathan Carter run for 5 yds to the MSU 6Similar
Q4 11:13
2ND & 5
OWN 6
+4
0.1%
Nathan Carter run for 4 yds to the MSU 10Similar
Q4 11:13
3RD & 1
OWN 10
+3
0.1%
Nathan Carter run for 3 yds to the MSU 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:13
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+8
0.1%
Nathan Carter run for 8 yds to the MSU 21Similar
Q4 11:13
2ND & 2
OWN 21
+1
0.1%
Nathan Carter run for 1 yd to the MSU 22Similar
Q4 11:13
3RD & 1
OWN 22
+4
0.1%
Jordon Simmons run for 4 yds to the MSU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:13
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+61
0.1%
Katin Houser pass complete to Christian Fitzpatrick for 61 yds to the WASH 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:47
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-1
0.1%
Alante Brown run for a loss of 1 yard to the WASH 14Similar
Q4 6:43
2ND & 11
OPP 14
+11
0.1%
Katin Houser pass complete to Tyneil Hopper for 11 yds to the WASH 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-1
0.1%
Nathan Carter run for a loss of 1 yard to the WASH 4Similar
Q4 5:48
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
0.1%
Katin Houser run for 4 yds for a TD (Jonathan Kim KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 24END OF GAME
11 plays · 64 yds · 5:48100% → 100%
Q4 5:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
0.2%
Tybo Rogers run for 15 yds to the WASH 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:48
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+17
0.1%
Richard Newton run for 17 yds to the MSU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:48
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
0.1%
Richard Newton run for 3 yds to the MSU 40Similar
Q4 5:48
2ND & 7
OPP 40
0
0.1%
Richard Newton run for no gain to the MSU 40Similar
Q4 5:48
3RD & 7
OPP 40
+5
0.1%
MORRIS, Dylan pass deep to the left incomplete intended for WHEELER, Mason thrown to the MSU9; QB hurried by HANSEN, Maverick. PENALTY MSU Offsides on NELSON, Ben enforced 5 yards from the MSU40 to the MSU35 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 5:48
3RD & 2
OPP 35
+1
0.1%
Tybo Rogers run for 1 yd to the MSU 34Similar
Q4 5:48
4TH & 1
OPP 34
+6
0.2%
Tybo Rogers run for 6 yds to the MSU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:48
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+7
0.1%
Tybo Rogers run for 7 yds to the MSU 21Similar
Q4 5:48
2ND & 3
OPP 21
+2
0.2%
Tybo Rogers run for 2 yds to the MSU 19Similar
Q4 5:48
3RD & 1
OPP 19
+9
0.2%
Richard Newton run for 9 yds to the MSU 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
0.1%
[SG] Kneel down by UW at MSU11 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 6:49
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Jack Westover for 13 yds for a TD (Grady Gross KICK)
-2.5
TD · Q1 1:14
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Jack Westover for 5 yds for a TD (Grady Gross KICK)
-2.4
TD · Q2 10:44
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Ja'Lynn Polk for 30 yds for a TD (Grady Gross KICK)
-1.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com