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UVA

Virginia 14 at Maryland 42

MD
2023 · Week 3 · Sep 15, 2023 · SECU Stadium
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Win probability · MD
modelMD aheadUVA aheadconfidence bandkey playMD scoreUVA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of GamePUNT-7.4MD 74.5%Daniel Sparks punt for 36 ydsAWAY 14 - HOME 8 · Q2 7:46
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 7:46 · Daniel Sparks punt for 36 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+40.0+20.00−20.0−40.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 50Pregame prior+28.0Home team on offense−5.3Score differential−1.9Garbage-time factor−1.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.1Blowout margin+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 4:16: Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Kobe Pace for 19 yds for a TD (Will Bettridge KICK) — UVA win probability +4.9 pts (now 19%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
  2. PUNT · Q2 7:46: Daniel Sparks punt for 36 yds — UVA win probability +7.4 pts (now 26%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 1:23: Roman Hemby run for 3 yds for a TD (Jack Howes KICK) — MD win probability +7.4 pts (now 80%) (top driver: MD has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 9:47: Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Jeshaun Jones for 64 yds for a TD (Jack Howes KICK) — MD win probability +9.6 pts (now 86%) (top driver: MD has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 11:10: Roman Hemby run for 3 yds for a TD (Jack Howes KICK) — MD win probability +5.4 pts (now 97%) (top driver: MD has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MD made the numbers' call on 4 of 6UVA made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 13:45MD 4th & 8 at MD 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.4%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:15MD 4th & 14 at UVA 37, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 82.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.2%−0.1
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    82.3%
    40% to make
    Punt
    82.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:09UVA 4th & 15 at UVA 20, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.7%−0.7
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.4%
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:16MD 4th & 2 at UVA 48, down 6
    Close callPunted · 78.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.6%−0.5
    average punt
  5. Q2 7:46UVA 4th & 9 at MD 39, up 6
    Close callPunted · 30.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.2%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    29.8%−0.3
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    29.8%−0.3
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:46MD 4th & 2 at UVA 8, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 72.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    72.6%
    54% to convert
    Field goal
    71.8%−0.8
    90% to make
    Punt
    67.9%−4.7
    average punt
  7. Q3 12:26UVA 4th & 10 at UVA 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.1%−1.0
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.1%
    average punt
  8. Q3 7:44UVA 4th & 10 at UVA 45, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.9%−1.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.1%
    average punt
  9. Q3 5:01MD 4th & 22 at MD 46, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.9%−3.3
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.1%
    average punt
  10. Q4 1:18MD 4th & 3 at midfield, up 28
    Close callPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MD made the numbers' call on 4 of 5UVA made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 12:25UVA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    15.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    15.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 4:16UVA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    21.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    21.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 1:23MD Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    74.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 9:47MD Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 11:10MD Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.7%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.8%
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 10:25MD Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 5:58MD Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MDDrive 1PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:1590% → 89%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
89.8%
Roman Hemby run for 2 yds to the MD 25Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 25
0
89.8%
Roman Hemby run for no gain to the MD 25Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 25
0
89.8%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:45
4TH & 8
OWN 25
0
89.4%
Colton Spangler punt for 40 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 2TD
3 plays · 65 yds · 1:2011% → 11%
Q1 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+49
89.4%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Malik Washington for 49 yds to the MD 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:45
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+3
89.4%
Perris Jones run for 3 yds to the MD 13Similar
Q1 12:25
2ND & 7
OPP 13
+13
88.6%
Perris Jones run for 13 yds for a TD (Will Bettridge KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 3MISSED FG
10 plays · 46 yds · 4:0489% → 87%
Q1 12:19
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+23
88.6%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Kaden Prather for 23 yds to the MD 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:19
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+15
88.7%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Jeshaun Jones for 15 yds to the UVA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:19
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
88.8%
Roman Hemby run for 4 yds to the UVA 41Similar
Q1 12:19
2ND & 6
OPP 41
0
88.8%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:19
3RD & 6
OPP 41
+8
88.8%
Antwain Littleton II run for 8 yds to the UVA 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:19
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-10
88.8%
HEMBY, Roman rush to the left for a gain of 21 yards to the UVA12 (BUTLER, Kameron). PENALTY UMD Holding on BULLOCK, Corey enforced 10 yards from the UVA33 to the UVA43 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 12:19
1ST & 20
OPP 43
+4
88.7%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Corey Dyches for 4 yds to the UVA 39Similar
Q1 12:19
2ND & 16
OPP 39
0
88.7%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:19
3RD & 16
OPP 39
+2
88.7%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Roman Hemby for 2 yds to the UVA 37Similar
Q1 8:15
4TH & 14
OPP 37
+55
86.5%
Jack Howes 55 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 4TD
8 plays · 63 yds · 3:5914% → 19%
Q1 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+9
86.4%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Kobe Pace for 9 yds to the UVA 46Similar
Q1 8:15
2ND & 1
OWN 46
0
86.3%
Kobe Pace run for no gain to the UVA 46Similar
Q1 8:15
3RD & 1
OWN 46
+6
86.3%
Mike Hollins run for 6 yds to the MD 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:15
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-5
86.2%
Virginia Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the UVA 47Similar
Q1 8:15
1ST & 15
OWN 47
+2
86.4%
Perris Jones run for 2 yds to the UVA 49Similar
Q1 8:15
2ND & 13
OWN 49
+16
86.4%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Malachi Fields for 16 yds to the MD 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:15
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+16
86.2%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Malik Washington for 16 yds to the MD 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:16
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+19
81.3%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Kobe Pace for 19 yds for a TD (Will Bettridge KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 5PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 1:5415% → 16%
Q1 4:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
84.7%
HARRISON, Suderian rush to the right for a gain of 3 yards to the UVA28 (MILLER, Glendon). PENALTY UVA Holding on FURNISH, Ty enforced 10 yards from the UVA25 to the UVA15 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 4:03
1ST & 20
OWN 15
0
84.8%
Anthony Colandrea pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:03
2ND & 20
OWN 15
-1
84.8%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Kobe Pace for a loss of 1 yard to the UVA 14Similar
Q1 4:03
3RD & 21
OWN 14
+6
85.0%
Mike Hollins run for 6 yds to the UVA 20Similar
Q1 2:09
4TH & 15
OWN 20
0
84.1%
Daniel Sparks punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Jeshaun Jones at the MD 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 22 yds · 1:5385% → 83%
Q1 2:09
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
84.5%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:09
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+6
84.1%
Antwain Littleton II run for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 2:09
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+14
83.9%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Tai Felton for 14 yds to the MD 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:09
3RD & 4
50
+2
84.5%
Antwain Littleton II run for 2 yds to the UVA 48Similar
Q1 0:16
4TH & 2
OPP 48
0
83.2%
Colton Spangler punt for 42 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 7PUNT
15 plays · 55 yds · 7:1418% → 26%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+10
82.5%
Anthony Colandrea run for 10 yds to the UVA 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-1
82.3%
Anthony Colandrea run for a loss of 1 yard to the UVA 15Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 15
+5
82.4%
Perris Jones run for 5 yds to the UVA 20Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 20
+15
82.6%
COLANDREA, Anthony sacked for a loss of 12 yards at the UVA8 (WYATT, Kellan). PENALTY UMD Personal Foul on STILL, Tarheeb enforced 15 yards from the UVA20 to the UVA35 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-6
82.0%
Malachi Fields run for a loss of 6 yards to the UVA 29Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 16
OWN 29
+6
82.4%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Malik Washington for 6 yds to the UVA 35Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 35
+12
82.4%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Malachi Fields for 12 yds to the UVA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
81.5%
Kobe Pace run for 4 yds to the MD 49Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 49
+3
81.4%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Malik Washington for 3 yds to the MD 46Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 46
+6
81.6%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Malik Washington for 6 yds to the MD 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
81.4%
Anthony Colandrea pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 40
-8
81.4%
COLANDREA, Anthony pass to the left complete for 14 yards to HARRISON, Suderian caught at the UMD40 and advanced to the UMD26 (MILLER, Glendon). PENALTY UVA Holding on WOOD, Eli enforced 8 yards from the UMD40 to the UMD48 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 18
OPP 48
+5
81.8%
Anthony Colandrea run for 5 yds to the MD 43Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 13
OPP 43
+4
81.9%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Malachi Fields for 4 yds to the MD 39Similar
Q2 7:46
4TH & 9
OPP 39
0
74.5%
Daniel Sparks punt for 36 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 8TD
16 plays · 97 yds · 6:2376% → 80%
Q2 7:46
1ST & 10
OWN 3
0
75.8%
Antwain Littleton II run for no gain to the MD 3Similar
Q2 7:46
2ND & 10
OWN 3
0
75.8%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:46
3RD & 10
OWN 3
+14
75.1%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Corey Dyches for 14 yds to the MD 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:46
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+7
76.1%
Antwain Littleton II run for 7 yds to the MD 24Similar
Q2 7:46
2ND & 3
OWN 24
+43
76.4%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Kaden Prather for 43 yds to the UVA 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:46
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-10
78.6%
TAGOVAILOA, Taulia pass short to the left complete for 3 yards to JONES, Jeshaun caught at the UVA30 and advanced to the UVA30 (KYLE, Tayvonn). PENALTY UMD Illegal Block in the Back on PRATHER, Kaden enforced 10 yards from the UVA33 to the UVA43 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 7:46
1ST & 20
OPP 43
+16
77.1%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Shaleak Knotts for 16 yds to the UVA 27Similar
Q2 7:46
2ND & 4
OPP 27
+11
78.6%
Roman Hemby run for 11 yds to the UVA 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:46
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-1
78.6%
Roman Hemby run for a loss of 1 yard to the UVA 17Similar
Q2 7:46
2ND & 11
OPP 17
+8
78.6%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Roman Hemby for 8 yds to the UVA 9Similar
Q2 7:46
3RD & 3
OPP 9
+1
77.8%
Antwain Littleton II run for 1 yd to the UVA 8Similar
Q2 7:46
4TH & 2
OPP 8
+6
77.0%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Jeshaun Jones for 6 yds to the UVA 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-1
73.0%
Antwain Littleton II run for a loss of 1 yard to the UVA 3Similar
Q2 1:32
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
73.0%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:23
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
80.4%
Roman Hemby run for 3 yds for a TD (Jack Howes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 9END OF HALF
7 plays · 17 yds · 1:1824% → 24%
Q2 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+7
76.0%
Anthony Colandrea run for 7 yds to the UVA 24Similar
Q2 0:52
2ND & 3
OWN 24
+3
75.4%
Perris Jones run for 3 yds to the UVA 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:52
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
75.8%
Anthony Colandrea pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:16
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+3
75.5%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Malachi Fields for 3 yds to the UVA 30Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 7
OWN 30
+4
75.6%
Perris Jones run for 4 yds to the UVA 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 23 yds · 2:3425% → 25%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
75.5%
Perris Jones run for 1 yd to the UVA 26Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+22
75.6%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Malik Washington for 22 yds to the UVA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-16
73.5%
Anthony Colandrea sacked by Fa'Najae Gotay for a loss of 16 yards to the UVA 32Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 26
OWN 32
+16
75.7%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Malachi Fields for 16 yds to the UVA 48Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 48
0
74.9%
Anthony Colandrea pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:26
4TH & 10
OWN 48
0
75.0%
Daniel Sparks punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Jeshaun Jones at the MD 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 11TD
6 plays · 85 yds · 2:3977% → 86%
Q3 12:26
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
76.5%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:26
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+3
76.4%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Jeshaun Jones for 3 yds to the MD 18Similar
Q3 12:26
3RD & 7
OWN 18
+8
75.4%
Taulia Tagovailoa run for 8 yds to the MD 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:26
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
76.8%
Roman Hemby run for 2 yds to the MD 28Similar
Q3 12:26
2ND & 8
OWN 28
+8
76.9%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Jeshaun Jones for 8 yds to the MD 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:47
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+64
86.4%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Jeshaun Jones for 64 yds for a TD (Jack Howes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 12PUNT
8 plays · 20 yds · 2:0316% → 15%
Q3 9:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
84.1%
Kobe Pace run for 4 yds to the UVA 29Similar
Q3 9:47
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+6
83.6%
Kobe Pace run for 6 yds to the UVA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:47
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+10
83.6%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Malachi Fields for 10 yds to the UVA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:47
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
82.7%
Anthony Colandrea pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:58
2ND & 10
OWN 45
0
83.7%
Anthony Colandrea pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:58
3RD & 10
OWN 45
0
84.3%
Anthony Colandrea pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:44
4TH & 10
OWN 45
0
85.4%
Daniel Sparks punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Jeshaun Jones at the MD 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · 24 yds · 2:4387% → 86%
Q3 7:44
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+1
87.1%
Taulia Tagovailoa run for 1 yd to the MD 23Similar
Q3 7:44
2ND & 9
OWN 23
+35
87.0%
Colby McDonald run for 35 yds to the UVA 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:44
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
88.6%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:44
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+4
88.5%
Colby McDonald run for 4 yds to the UVA 38Similar
Q3 7:44
3RD & 6
OPP 38
-16
88.1%
Taulia Tagovailoa sacked by Kam Butler for a loss of 16 yards to the MD 46Similar
Q3 5:01
4TH & 22
OWN 46
0
85.9%
Colton Spangler punt for 40 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 14INT
17 plays · 74 yds · 5:1715% → 18%
Q3 5:01
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+7
84.8%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Malik Washington for 7 yds to the UVA 21Similar
Q3 5:01
2ND & 3
OWN 21
-5
84.4%
Virginia Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the UVA 16Similar
Q3 5:01
2ND & 8
OWN 16
+9
84.8%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Malachi Fields for 9 yds to the UVA 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
84.6%
Perris Jones run for 3 yds to the UVA 28Similar
Q3 5:01
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-5
84.4%
Virginia Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the UVA 23Similar
Q3 5:01
2ND & 12
OWN 23
0
84.8%
Anthony Colandrea pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:01
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+15
85.5%
Maryland Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Lionell Whitaker) to the MD 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:01
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
82.2%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Jaden Gibson for 3 yds to the MD 46Similar
Q3 5:01
2ND & 7
OPP 46
+7
82.3%
Anthony Colandrea run for 7 yds to the MD 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:01
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
82.2%
Anthony Colandrea pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:01
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+15
82.3%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Suderian Harrison for 15 yds to the MD 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:01
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
80.9%
Anthony Colandrea pass incomplete Virginia Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Anthony Colandrea) to the MD 37Similar
Q3 5:01
2ND & 23
OPP 37
0
83.3%
Anthony Colandrea pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 23
OPP 37
+25
84.6%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Malik Washington for 25 yds to the MD 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
80.7%
Anthony Colandrea pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 12
0
80.7%
Anthony Colandrea pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:44
3RD & 10
OPP 12
0
82.4%
Anthony Colandrea pass intercepted, touchback.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 15TD
11 plays · 80 yds · 3:3489% → 97%
Q4 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+15
89.4%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Roman Hemby for 15 yds to the MD 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-5
89.6%
TAGOVAILOA, Taulia pass short to the right complete for 5 yards to PRATHER, Kaden caught at the UMD40 and advanced to the UMD40 (KING, Coen). PENALTY UMD Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on FAGAN, Conor enforced 5 yards from the UMD35 to the UMD30 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 14:44
1ST & 15
OWN 30
+10
89.4%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Corey Dyches for 10 yds to the MD 40Similar
Q4 14:44
2ND & 5
OWN 40
0
90.5%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:44
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+9
89.7%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Tyrese Chambers for 9 yds to the MD 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+33
90.6%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Preston Howard for 33 yds to the UVA 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:44
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+3
91.2%
Antwain Littleton II run for 3 yds to the UVA 15Similar
Q4 14:44
2ND & 7
OPP 15
+13
91.2%
TAGOVAILOA, Taulia pass up the middle incomplete intended for JONES, Jeshaun thrown to the UVA0. PENALTY UVA Pass Interference on WALKER, Dre enforced 13 yards to the UVA2 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 14:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-1
91.3%
Roman Hemby run for a loss of 1 yard to the UVA 3Similar
Q4 14:44
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
91.2%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:10
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
96.7%
Roman Hemby run for 3 yds for a TD (Jack Howes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 16INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q4 11:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
95.3%
Anthony Colandrea pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 17TD
3 plays · 30 yds · 0:3797% → 99%
Q4 11:02
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+28
96.8%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Corey Dyches for 28 yds to the UVA 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
96.8%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
99.2%
Antwain Littleton II run for 2 yds for a TD (Jack Howes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 18INT
3 plays · 11 yds · 1:091% → 1%
Q4 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
99.0%
Anthony Colandrea run for 3 yds to the UVA 28Similar
Q4 10:25
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+8
99.0%
Anthony Colandrea run for 8 yds to the UVA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:16
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
99.0%
Anthony Colandrea pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 19TD
6 plays · 56 yds · 3:1899% → 100%
Q4 9:16
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
99.2%
Colby McDonald run for 3 yds to the MD 47Similar
Q4 9:16
2ND & 7
OWN 47
+6
99.2%
Colby McDonald run for 6 yds to the UVA 47Similar
Q4 9:16
3RD & 1
OPP 47
+1
99.2%
Colby McDonald run for 1 yd to the UVA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:16
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+27
99.2%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Tai Felton for 27 yds Tai Felton fumbled, recovered by MD Taulia Tagovailoa for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:16
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+18
99.2%
Colby McDonald run for 18 yds to the UVA 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.9%
Colby McDonald run for 1 yd for a TD (Jack Howes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 20FUMBLE
7 plays · 32 yds · 2:390% → 0%
Q4 5:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
99.9%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Kobe Pace for 1 yd to the UVA 26Similar
Q4 5:58
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+6
99.9%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Mike Hollins for 6 yds to the UVA 32Similar
Q4 5:58
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+15
99.9%
Maryland Penalty, Face mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the MD 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:58
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+7
99.9%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Malik Washington for 7 yds to the MD 42Similar
Q4 5:58
2ND & 3
OPP 42
0
99.9%
Anthony Colandrea pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:58
3RD & 3
OPP 42
+3
99.9%
Perris Jones run for 3 yds to the MD 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:19
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-4
100.0%
Anthony Colandrea sacked for a loss of 4 yards to the MD 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 2:01100% → 100%
Q4 3:19
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-1
100.0%
Colby McDonald run for a loss of 1 yard to the MD 42Similar
Q4 3:19
2ND & 11
OWN 42
+7
100.0%
Colby McDonald run for 7 yds to the MD 49Similar
Q4 3:19
3RD & 4
OWN 49
+1
100.0%
Colby McDonald run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 1:18
4TH & 3
50
0
100.0%
Colton Spangler punt for 37 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 22END OF GAME
2 plays · 11 yds · 1:180% → 0%
Q4 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+2
100.0%
Jack Griese run for 2 yds to the UVA 15Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 8
OWN 15
+9
100.0%
Jack Griese run for 9 yds to the UVA 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 9:47
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Jeshaun Jones for 64 yds for a TD (Jack Howes KICK)
+9.6
PUNT · Q2 7:46
Daniel Sparks punt for 36 yds
-7.4
TD · Q2 1:23
Roman Hemby run for 3 yds for a TD (Jack Howes KICK)
+7.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com