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UNT

North Texas 40 at Louisiana Tech 37

LT
2023 · Week 3 · Sep 16, 2023 · Joe Aillet Stadium
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Win probability · LT
modelLT aheadUNT aheadconfidence bandkey playLT scoreUNT score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 15:00 · Oscar Adaway III run for 6 yds to the LT 11 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+39.0+19.50−19.5−39.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 43Home team on offense−4.5Pregame prior+11.1Score differential−2.3Garbage-time factor−1.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 1:36: Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Smoke Harris for 19 yds for a TD (Jacob Barnes KICK) — LT win probability +17.9 pts (now 64%) (top driver: LT has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:14: Chandler Rogers pass complete to Damon Ward for 6 yds for a TD (Noah Rauschenberg KICK) — UNT win probability +13.0 pts (now 62%) (top driver: UNT has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 4:03: Ayo Adeyi run for 6 yds for a TD (Noah Rauschenberg KICK) — UNT win probability +16.6 pts (now 86%) (top driver: UNT has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 1:04: Jack Turner pass complete to Smoke Harris for 36 yds for a TD (Buck Buchanan KICK) — LT win probability +46.7 pts (now 66%) (top driver: LT has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 0:03: Noah Rauschenberg 31 yd FG GOOD — UNT win probability +32.9 pts (now 96%) (top driver: UNT has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
LT made the numbers' call on 7 of 7UNT made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 12:40UNT 4th & 1 at LT 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 36.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    36.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    36.8%−0.1
    72% to make
    Punt
    36.4%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:07UNT 4th & 8 at LT 8, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 37.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.2%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    37.3%
    90% to make
    Punt
    36.2%−1.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:11LT 4th & 5 at LT 30, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.6%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.6%
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:15LT 4th & 11 at LT 24, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.3%−0.7
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.9%
    average punt
  5. Q2 15:00UNT 4th & 1 at LT 17, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 45.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    45.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    44.4%−1.0
    80% to make
    Punt
    41.4%−4.0
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:37UNT 4th & 4 at LT 5, up 10
    Close callKicked a field goal · 47.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.4%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    47.0%−0.4
    92% to make
    Punt
    43.3%−4.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:00UNT 4th & 2 at UNT 33, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.5%−0.2
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.7%
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:25LT 4th & 7 at LT 6, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.0%−1.6
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.6%
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:56UNT 4th & 27 at LT 30, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 51.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.1%−2.2
    7% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    51.4%
    56% to make
    Punt
    49.6%−1.7
    average punt
  10. Q3 12:12LT 4th & 1 at UNT 45, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 43.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    43.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    38.0%−5.5
    25% to make
    Punt
    40.0%−3.5
    average punt
  11. Q3 7:02LT 4th & 2 at UNT 24, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 38.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    38.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    36.5%−1.6
    68% to make
    Punt
    27.5%−10.7
    average punt
  12. Q3 2:04LT 4th & 1 at UNT 40, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 21.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    20.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    16.5%−4.4
    34% to make
    Punt
    16.9%−4.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 4:29UNT 4th & 12 at UNT 10, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.2%−2.2
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.4%
    average punt
  14. Q4 1:32LT 4th & 8 at UNT 13, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 6.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.8%−2.1
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    8.9%
    85% to make
    Punt
    4.8%−4.0
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
LT made the numbers' call on 4 of 5UNT made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 3:23UNT Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 7:49LT Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 1:36LT Touchdown, down 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:14UNT Touchdown, up 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 4:03UNT Touchdown, up 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 14:55LT Touchdown, down 10 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    29.2%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    29.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 10:23UNT Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.5%−0.3
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 6:27LT Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    12.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    12.0%−0.4
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 1:04LT Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.4%−4.8
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UNTDrive 1FG
17 plays · 67 yds · 6:5335% → 36%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
64.9%
Kaylon Horton run for 4 yds to the UNT 29Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+11
64.9%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Oscar Adaway III for 11 yds to the UNT 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
64.9%
Oscar Adaway III run for 2 yds to the UNT 42Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+7
64.9%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Roderic Burns for 7 yds to the UNT 49Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 49
+4
64.9%
Ayo Adeyi run for 4 yds to the LT 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+16
64.5%
Chandler Rogers run for 16 yds to the LT 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
64.5%
Chandler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:00
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+4
64.5%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Roderic Burns for 4 yds to the LT 27Similar
Q1 12:40
3RD & 6
OPP 27
+5
64.5%
Chandler Rogers run for 5 yds to the LT 22Similar
Q1 12:40
4TH & 1
OPP 22
+4
64.6%
Oscar Adaway III run for 4 yds to the LT 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:40
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+1
64.4%
Oscar Adaway III run for 1 yd to the LT 17Similar
Q1 12:40
2ND & 9
OPP 17
+7
64.4%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Roderic Burns for 7 yds to the LT 10Similar
Q1 12:40
3RD & 2
OPP 10
+2
64.5%
Chandler Rogers run for 2 yds to the LT 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
63.5%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Roderic Burns for no gain to the LT 8Similar
Q1 8:31
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
63.4%
Chandler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:17
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
0
63.6%
Chandler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:07
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
+25
63.6%
Noah Rauschenberg 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:5664% → 63%
Q1 8:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
63.6%
Hank Bachmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:07
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
63.5%
Charvis Thornton run for 5 yds to the LT 30Similar
Q1 8:07
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
63.4%
Hank Bachmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:11
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
62.9%
Blake Ochsendorf punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Roderic Burns at the UNT 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 3TD
10 plays · 72 yds · 3:4837% → 42%
Q1 7:11
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+10
63.4%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Isaiah Johnson for 10 yds to the UNT 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:11
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-1
63.1%
Isaiah Johnson run for a loss of 1 yard to the UNT 37Similar
Q1 7:11
2ND & 11
OWN 37
+15
63.3%
Louisiana Tech Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Michael Richard) to the LT 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:18
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
62.6%
Kaylon Horton run for 4 yds to the LT 44Similar
Q1 6:18
2ND & 6
OPP 44
+1
62.6%
Oscar Adaway III run for 1 yd to the LT 43Similar
Q1 6:18
3RD & 5
OPP 43
+5
62.7%
Chandler Rogers run for 5 yds to the LT 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:18
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+14
62.6%
Oscar Adaway III run for 14 yds to the LT 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:20
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+8
61.6%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Ja'Mori Maclin for 8 yds to the LT 16Similar
Q1 4:20
2ND & 2
OPP 16
+3
61.5%
Oscar Adaway III run for 3 yds to the LT 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:23
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
57.6%
Ayo Adeyi run for 13 yds for a TD (Noah Rauschenberg KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:0858% → 56%
Q1 3:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
57.8%
Tyre Shelton run for 5 yds to the LT 30Similar
Q1 3:23
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
58.0%
Hank Bachmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:23
3RD & 5
OWN 30
-6
57.6%
Hank Bachmeier sacked by Mazin Richards for a loss of 6 yards to the LT 24Similar
Q1 2:15
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
55.8%
Blake Ochsendorf punt for 51 yds , returns for no gain to the UNT 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 5FG
14 plays · 65 yds · 5:2543% → 51%
Q1 2:02
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+13
57.2%
Ayo Adeyi run for 13 yds to the UNT 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:02
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
56.6%
Chandler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:35
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+4
56.4%
Ayo Adeyi run for 4 yds to the UNT 47Similar
Q1 1:35
3RD & 6
OWN 47
+27
56.5%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Roderic Burns for 27 yds to the LT 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:35
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+5
56.0%
Isaiah Johnson run for 5 yds to the LT 21Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 5
OPP 21
0
54.9%
Chandler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 21
+4
55.3%
Oscar Adaway III run for 4 yds to the LT 17Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 17
+6
55.9%
Oscar Adaway III run for 6 yds to the LT 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:55
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+5
54.2%
Ayo Adeyi run for 5 yds to the LT 6Similar
Q2 13:00
2ND & 5
OPP 6
-10
53.2%
North Texas Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the LT 16Similar
Q2 13:00
2ND & 15
OPP 16
+11
53.3%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Roderic Burns for 11 yds to the LT 5Similar
Q2 12:30
3RD & 4
OPP 5
0
53.1%
Chandler Rogers run for no gain to the LT 5Similar
Q2 11:37
4TH & 4
OPP 5
+22
48.9%
Noah Rauschenberg 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 6TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 3:4851% → 59%
Q2 11:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
51.1%
Charvis Thornton run for 3 yds to the LT 28Similar
Q2 11:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+6
50.9%
Charvis Thornton run for 6 yds to the LT 34Similar
Q2 10:25
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+4
50.4%
Charvis Thornton run for 4 yds to the LT 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:13
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+7
50.7%
Tyre Shelton run for 7 yds to the LT 45Similar
Q2 10:13
2ND & 3
OWN 45
+28
51.1%
Tyre Shelton run for 28 yds to the UNT 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:20
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+9
51.9%
Tyre Shelton run for 9 yds to the UNT 18Similar
Q2 8:30
2ND & 1
OPP 18
+6
51.3%
Keith Willis Jr. run for 6 yds to the UNT 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:49
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
58.9%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Cyrus Allen for 12 yds for a TD (Jacob Barnes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:4947% → 48%
Q2 7:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
52.9%
Ayo Adeyi run for 3 yds to the UNT 28Similar
Q2 7:25
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+2
52.5%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Ja'Mori Maclin for 2 yds to the UNT 30Similar
Q2 6:50
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+3
52.4%
Ayo Adeyi run for 3 yds to the UNT 33Similar
Q2 6:00
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
52.3%
Sawyer Evans punt for 64 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:2754% → 52%
Q2 5:52
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+6
53.9%
Tyre Shelton run for 6 yds to the LT 9Similar
Q2 5:19
2ND & 4
OWN 9
+2
53.5%
Tyre Shelton run for 2 yds to the LT 11Similar
Q2 4:30
3RD & 2
OWN 11
0
52.4%
Louisiana Tech Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct ( Yards) to the LT 6Similar
Q2 4:25
4TH & 7
OWN 6
0
51.8%
Blake Ochsendorf punt for 54 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 9FG
9 plays · 26 yds · 2:1351% → 54%
Q2 4:09
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+32
48.8%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Trey Cleveland for 32 yds to the LT 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:31
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+9
46.4%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Trey Cleveland for 9 yds to the LT 15Similar
Q2 3:31
2ND & 1
OPP 15
+2
46.4%
Isaiah Johnson run for 2 yds to the LT 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:30
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-15
45.5%
(02:30) ROGERS, Chandler pass short to the right complete for 5 yards to BURNS, Roderic caught at the LAT8 and advanced to the LAT8 (BOATENG, Jeslord). PENALTY UNT Pass Interference on CLEVELAND, Trey enforced 15 yards to the LAT28 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 2:26
1ST & 25
OPP 28
0
45.7%
Chandler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:14
2ND & 25
OPP 28
+8
46.0%
Isaiah Johnson run for 8 yds to the LT 20Similar
Q2 2:05
3RD & 17
OPP 20
-10
46.7%
Chandler Rogers sacked by Deshon Hall Jr. for a loss of 10 yards to the LT 30Similar
Q2 1:56
4TH & 27
OPP 30
+48
46.1%
Noah Rauschenberg 48 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 10TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 0:0846% → 64%
Q2 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+56
45.9%
Tyre Shelton run for 56 yds to the UNT 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:36
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+19
63.7%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Smoke Harris for 19 yds for a TD (Jacob Barnes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 11TD
10 plays · 89 yds · 1:1642% → 62%
Q2 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+2
58.3%
Ayo Adeyi run for 2 yds to the UNT 13Similar
Q2 1:02
2ND & 8
OWN 13
+2
57.9%
Ayo Adeyi run for 2 yds to the UNT 15Similar
Q2 1:02
3RD & 6
OWN 15
+32
58.9%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Damon Ward for 32 yds to the UNT 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:02
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
54.6%
Chandler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:02
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+22
55.0%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Roderic Burns for 22 yds to the LT 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:02
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
51.6%
Chandler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:27
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+25
51.4%
Ayo Adeyi run for 25 yds to the LT 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
38.5%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Damon Ward for 6 yds for a TD (Noah Rauschenberg KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 12END OF HALF
1 play · 1 yds · 0:0045% → 45%
Q2 0:14
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+1
44.9%
Tyre Shelton run for 1 yd to the LT 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 13DOWNS
15 plays · 51 yds · 7:5845% → 39%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
44.9%
Tyre Shelton run for a loss of 1 yard to the LT 24Similar
Q3 14:56
2ND & 5
OPP 49
+4
47.7%
Keith Willis Jr. run for 4 yds to the UNT 45Similar
Q3 14:30
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+4
44.4%
Tyre Shelton run for 4 yds to the LT 28Similar
Q3 14:30
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+15
43.5%
North Texas Penalty, Roughing the Passer on RICHARDS, Mazin enforced (Mazin Richards) to the LT 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
45.9%
Keith Willis Jr. run for 5 yds to the UNT 49Similar
Q3 12:12
3RD & 1
OPP 45
0
45.8%
Keith Willis Jr. run for no gain to the UNT 45Similar
Q3 12:12
4TH & 1
OPP 45
+1
44.1%
Hank Bachmeier run for 1 yd to the UNT 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:55
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
45.3%
Hank Bachmeier run for 2 yds to the UNT 42Similar
Q3 10:42
2ND & 8
OPP 42
-10
43.8%
(10:42) SHELTON, Tyre rush to the right for a gain of 7 yards to the UNT35 (WILSON, Logan). PENALTY LAT Holding on GILBERT, Jerren enforced 10 yards from the UNT42 to the LAT48 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 10:24
2ND & 18
OWN 48
+17
41.4%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Smoke Harris for 17 yds to the UNT 35Similar
Q3 9:30
3RD & 1
OPP 35
+3
42.8%
run for 3 yds to the UNT 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:58
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+1
44.1%
Keith Willis Jr. run for 1 yd to the UNT 31Similar
Q3 8:00
2ND & 9
OPP 31
-3
42.9%
Keith Willis Jr. run for a loss of 3 yards to the UNT 34Similar
Q3 7:57
3RD & 12
OPP 34
+10
39.7%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Jacob Fields for 10 yds to the UNT 24Similar
Q3 7:02
4TH & 2
OPP 24
0
38.7%
Hank Bachmeier pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 14TD
9 plays · 76 yds · 2:5564% → 86%
Q3 6:58
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+2
36.0%
Ayo Adeyi run for 2 yds to the UNT 26Similar
Q3 6:35
2ND & 8
OWN 26
+9
35.5%
Chandler Rogers run for 9 yds to the UNT 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:35
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+18
34.9%
Ayo Adeyi run for 18 yds to the LT 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:44
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
32.9%
Chandler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:36
2ND & 10
OPP 47
0
32.9%
Chandler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:32
3RD & 10
OPP 47
+22
33.5%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Roderic Burns for 22 yds to the LT 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:05
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+19
31.8%
Ayo Adeyi run for 19 yds to the LT 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
14.1%
Ayo Adeyi run for 6 yds for a TD (Noah Rauschenberg KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 15DOWNS
7 plays · 35 yds · 1:5921% → 20%
Q3 4:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
20.5%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Cyrus Allen for 11 yds to the LT 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:03
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+15
21.5%
BACHMEIER, Hank pass deep to the right incomplete intended for JONES, Nate thrown to the UNT45. PENALTY UNT Roughing the Passer on KROPP, Carson enforced 15 yards from the LAT36 to the UNT49 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 3:21
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+1
22.6%
Jacob Fields run for 1 yd to the UNT 48Similar
Q3 2:45
2ND & 9
OPP 48
0
22.1%
Hank Bachmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:42
3RD & 9
OPP 48
+8
20.4%
Jacob Fields run for 8 yds to the UNT 40Similar
Q3 2:04
4TH & 1
OPP 40
0
20.2%
Jacob Fields run for no gain to the UNT 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 16FUMBLE
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:0889% → 91%
Q3 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-1
11.1%
Oscar Adaway III run for a loss of 1 yard to the UNT 39Similar
Q3 1:20
2ND & 11
OWN 39
0
9.4%
Chandler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:15
3RD & 11
OWN 39
+12
9.8%
Oscar Adaway III run for 12 yds to the LT 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:42
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-6
8.6%
Oscar Adaway III run for a loss of 6 yards to the UNT 45 fumbled, recovered by LT Jayden GraySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 17TD
3 plays · 45 yds · 0:3819% → 31%
Q3 0:33
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+33
19.4%
Jack Turner pass complete to Nate Jones for 33 yds to the UNT 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+5
19.6%
Jack Turner pass complete to Cyrus Allen for 5 yds to the UNT 7Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 5
OPP 7
+7
31.4%
Tyre Shelton 7 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 18TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 4:3274% → 95%
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
26.1%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Ayo Adeyi for 7 yds to the UNT 32Similar
Q4 14:24
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+9
25.7%
Ayo Adeyi run for 9 yds to the UNT 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
24.0%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Roderic Burns for 4 yds to the UNT 45Similar
Q4 13:55
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+5
23.9%
Chandler Rogers run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 13:55
3RD & 1
50
+2
24.0%
Oscar Adaway III run for 2 yds to the LT 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:02
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
19.4%
Chandler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:58
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+2
19.5%
Oscar Adaway III run for 2 yds to the LT 46Similar
Q4 11:58
3RD & 8
OPP 46
+9
19.6%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Ja'Mori Maclin for 9 yds to the LT 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:58
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+11
19.2%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Landon Sides for 11 yds to the LT 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:52
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-10
16.5%
North Texas Penalty, Offensive Holding (Kaci Moreka) to the LT 36Similar
Q4 10:43
1ST & 20
OPP 36
0
17.0%
Chandler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:23
2ND & 20
OPP 36
+36
4.8%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Ja'Mori Maclin for 36 yds for a TD (Noah Rauschenberg KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 19TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:567% → 18%
Q4 10:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
6.9%
Jack Turner run for 9 yds to the LT 34Similar
Q4 10:23
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+43
7.4%
Jack Turner pass complete to Cyrus Allen for 43 yds to the UNT 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:23
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+5
8.8%
Jack Turner run for 5 yds to the UNT 18Similar
Q4 10:23
2ND & 5
OPP 18
0
8.8%
Jack Turner pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:23
3RD & 5
OPP 18
+7
8.5%
Tyre Shelton run for 7 yds to the UNT 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:23
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+8
8.8%
Jacob Fields run for 8 yds to the UNT 3Similar
Q4 7:24
2ND & 2
OPP 3
+1
7.5%
Jacob Fields run for 1 yd to the UNT 2Similar
Q4 7:24
3RD & 1
OPP 2
+1
7.3%
Jacob Fields run for 1 yd to the UNT 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
18.3%
Jack Turner run for 1 yd for a TD (Jacob Barnes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 1:5088% → 90%
Q4 6:19
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+2
11.8%
Ayo Adeyi run for 2 yds to the UNT 14Similar
Q4 5:40
2ND & 8
OWN 14
-4
11.6%
Ayo Adeyi run for a loss of 4 yards to the UNT 10Similar
Q4 5:40
3RD & 12
OWN 10
0
12.4%
Chandler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:29
4TH & 12
OWN 10
0
10.4%
Sawyer Evans punt for 57 yds, downed at the LT 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 21FG
14 plays · 54 yds · 2:5710% → 18%
Q4 4:29
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
10.3%
Smoke Harris run for no gain to the LT 33Similar
Q4 4:00
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+2
10.0%
Tyre Shelton run for 2 yds to the LT 35Similar
Q4 3:30
3RD & 8
OWN 35
+15
9.1%
North Texas Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Logan Wilson) to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:30
1ST & 10
50
+4
11.2%
Tyre Shelton run for 4 yds to the UNT 46Similar
Q4 3:06
2ND & 6
OPP 46
+11
8.3%
Jack Turner pass complete to Cyrus Allen for 11 yds to the UNT 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:50
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
9.7%
Jack Turner pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:50
2ND & 10
OPP 35
0
9.7%
Jack Turner pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:36
3RD & 10
OPP 35
+15
8.0%
North Texas Penalty, Face mask (15 yards) (Carson Kropp) to the UNT 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:21
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+2
9.4%
Jack Turner pass complete to Tyre Shelton for 2 yds to the UNT 13Similar
Q4 2:21
2ND & 8
OPP 13
+5
9.8%
Jack Turner pass complete to Tru Edwards for 5 yds to the UNT 8Similar
Q4 2:21
3RD & 3
OPP 8
0
8.6%
Jack Turner pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:21
4TH & 3
OPP 8
-5
7.7%
Louisiana Tech Penalty, Illegal Snap on PUGH, Gabe enforced (-5 Yards) to the UNT 13Similar
Q4 1:32
4TH & 8
OPP 13
+30
18.2%
Jacob Barnes 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 22TD
3 plays · 53 yds · 0:2517% → 66%
Q4 1:29
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+12
17.3%
Tyre Shelton run for 12 yds to the UNT 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:19
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+5
19.3%
Jack Turner pass complete to Smoke Harris for 5 yds to the UNT 36Similar
Q4 1:04
2ND & 5
OPP 36
+36
66.0%
Jack Turner pass complete to Smoke Harris for 36 yds for a TD (Buck Buchanan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 23FG
11 plays · 61 yds · 1:0149% → 96%
Q4 1:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
51.5%
Ayo Adeyi run for 1 yd to the UNT 26Similar
Q4 0:47
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+23
51.7%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Roderic Burns for 23 yds to the UNT 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:47
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+6
45.0%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Jordan Smart for 6 yds to the LT 45Similar
Q4 0:32
2ND & 4
OPP 45
0
41.6%
Chandler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:30
3RD & 4
OPP 45
+7
43.4%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Roderic Burns for 7 yds to the LT 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:25
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+3
41.4%
Chandler Rogers run for 3 yds to the LT 35Similar
Q4 0:18
2ND & 7
OPP 35
0
38.3%
Chandler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:13
3RD & 7
OPP 35
+21
42.2%
Ayo Adeyi run for 21 yds to the LT 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:03
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+31
4.4%
Noah Rauschenberg 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:04
Jack Turner pass complete to Smoke Harris for 36 yds for a TD (Buck Buchanan KICK)
+46.7
FG · Q4 0:03
Noah Rauschenberg 31 yd FG GOOD
-32.9
TD · Q2 1:36
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Smoke Harris for 19 yds for a TD (Jacob Barnes KICK)
+17.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com