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Win probability · UK
modelUK aheadAKR aheadconfidence bandkey playUK scoreAKR score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 5:07 · DJ Irons pass incomplete
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- KEY PLAY · Q2 5:45: Timeout Akron, clock 05:45 — UK win probability +1.5 pts (now 91%) (top driver: AKR has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:08: Devin Leary pass complete to Tayvion Robinson for 22 yds for a TD (Alex Raynor KICK) — UK win probability +3.4 pts (now 94%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q3 9:00: DJ Irons pass incomplete — AKR win probability +1.7 pts (now 8%) (top driver: AKR has the ball).
- TD · Q3 1:38: Devin Leary pass complete to Ray Davis for 58 yds for a TD (Alex Raynor KICK) — UK win probability +4.7 pts (now 97%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
- TD · Q4 13:47: Ray Davis run for 55 yds for a TD (Alex Raynor KICK) — UK win probability +1.9 pts (now 100%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
UK made the numbers' call on 3 of 3AKR made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
- Q1 9:06AKR 4th & 11 at AKR 19, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.7% before the snapGo for it6.6%−0.125% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call6.7%average punt
- Q1 7:25UK 4th & 13 at UK 27, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.8% before the snapGo for it92.8%−0.119% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call92.9%average punt
- Q1 4:52UK 4th & 15 at AKR 41, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.4% before the snapGo for it92.4%−0.117% to convertField goal92.4%−0.132% to makePuntTheir call92.5%average punt
- Q1 1:37AKR 4th & 2 at AKR 44, down 7Close callPunted · 8.2% before the snapGo for it8.2%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call8.1%−0.1average punt
- Q2 5:45AKR 4th & 15 at UK 30, down 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 9.8% before the snapGo for it9.3%−0.617% to convertField goalTheir call9.9%56% to makePunt9.3%−0.6average punt
- Q3 11:24AKR 4th & 7 at AKR 43, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.0% before the snapGo for it7.0%−0.337% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call7.3%average punt
- Q3 3:27AKR 4th & 7 at UK 18, down 14Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 7.0% before the snapGo for it6.6%−0.435% to convertField goalTheir call7.0%79% to makePunt3.4%−3.6average punt
- Q4 14:52AKR 4th & 13 at AKR 28, down 18Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.1% before the snapGo for it2.6%−0.819% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.4%average punt
- Q4 11:19AKR 4th & 9 at AKR 37, down 25Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.5% before the snapGo for it0.5%−0.131% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.5%average punt
- Q4 10:31AKR 4th & 7 at UK 20, down 25Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.4% before the snapGo for it0.4%−0.235% to convertField goalTheir call0.5%75% to makePunt0.0%−0.5average punt
- Q4 9:23UK 4th & 10 at UK 33, up 25Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.6% before the snapGo for it99.5%−0.229% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.7%average punt
- Q4 5:07AKR 4th & 11 at UK 38, down 25Close callWent for it · 0.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.3%−0.127% to convertField goal0.3%38% to makePunt0.2%−0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UK made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
- Q1 10:34UK Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call93.4%97% to makeGo for two93.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:08UK Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call92.9%97% to makeGo for two92.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 1:38UK Touchdown, up 17 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call96.9%97% to makeGo for two96.9%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 13:47UK Touchdown, up 24 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.2%97% to makeGo for two99.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 3:04UK Touchdown, up 31 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%−<0.197% to makeGo for two100.0%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartUKDrive 1TD8 plays · 75 yds · 4:2694% → 94%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+39
94.4%
Devin Leary pass complete to Ray Davis for 39 yds to the AKR 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:07
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+6
94.3%
Devin Leary pass complete to Tayvion Robinson for 6 yds to the AKR 30Similar
Q1 14:07
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+12
94.3%
Devin Leary pass complete to Barion Brown for 12 yds to the AKR 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:34
2ND & 4
OPP 6
+6
93.9%
Devin Leary pass complete to Josh Kattus for 6 yds for a TD (Alex Raynor KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 2PUNT4 plays · -1 yds · 1:226% → 6%
UKDrive 3PUNT4 plays · -3 yds · 1:4194% → 93%
Q1 9:06
3RD & 22
OWN 18
+9
93.5%
Devin Leary pass complete to Jordan Dingle for 9 yds to the UK 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 4PUNT5 plays · -5 yds · 2:3394% → 93%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 5PUNT7 plays · 24 yds · 3:157% → 8%
UKDrive 6FUMBLE6 plays · 81 yds · 2:0992% → 92%
Q2 14:28
2ND & 11
OWN 41
+59
92.1%
Devin Leary pass complete to Jordan Dingle for 59 yds Jordan Dingle fumbled, recovered by AKR Corey Thomas Jr.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 7MISSED FG16 plays · 50 yds · 8:198% → 9%
Q2 12:44
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-5
91.5%
DJ Irons sacked by Darrion Henry-Young for a loss of 5 yards to the AKR 25Similar
Q2 12:05
2ND & 15
OWN 25
+19
91.6%
DJ Irons pass complete to Daniel George for 19 yds to the AKR 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:10
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+10
90.3%
DJ Irons pass complete to Lorenzo Lingard for 10 yds to the UK 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:45
3RD & 12
OPP 27
-3
89.9%
DJ Irons sacked by Trevin Wallace for a loss of 3 yards to the UK 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 8TD11 plays · 70 yds · 5:3191% → 94%
Q2 5:39
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-8
91.1%
Devin Leary sacked by CJ Nunnally IV for a loss of 8 yards to the UK 22Similar
Q2 5:39
2ND & 18
OWN 22
+25
90.9%
Devin Leary pass complete to Jordan Dingle for 25 yds to the UK 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:15
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-4
91.5%
Devin Leary pass complete to Jordan Dingle for a loss of 4 yards to the AKR 45Similar
Q2 4:15
2ND & 14
OPP 45
+28
91.1%
Devin Leary pass complete to Tayvion Robinson for 28 yds to the AKR 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:53
1ST & 15
OPP 22
0
91.1%
Akron Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Nate Thompson) to the AKR 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:53
2ND & GOAL
OPP 28
+6
90.8%
Devin Leary pass complete to Tayvion Robinson for 6 yds to the AKR 22Similar
Q2 0:08
3RD & GOAL
OPP 22
+22
94.2%
Devin Leary pass complete to Tayvion Robinson for 22 yds for a TD (Alex Raynor KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 9END OF HALF1 play · -1 yds · 0:007% → 7%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 10PUNT7 plays · 18 yds · 3:367% → 7%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
93.4%
DJ Irons pass complete to Jasaiah Gathings for 6 yds to the AKR 31Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 2
OWN 48
-5
93.1%
IRONS, DJ pass short to the left complete for 25 yards to NEWELL, Jake caught at the KEN48 and advanced to the KEN27 (HAIRSTON, Maxwell). PENALTY AKR Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass enforced 5 yards from the AKR48 to the AKR43 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 11:24
4TH & 7
OWN 43
0
93.2%
Dante Jackson punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Tayvion Robinson at the UK 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 11INT6 plays · 4 yds · 2:2494% → 94%
Q3 11:24
3RD & 3
OWN 29
+7
93.6%
Devin Leary pass complete to Barion Brown for 7 yds to the UK 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:24
2ND & 10
OWN 36
-10
93.9%
LEARY, Devin pass deep to the left complete for 64 yards to BROWN-STEPHENS, Anthony caught at the AKR22 and advanced to the AKR0, End of Play. PENALTY KEN Holding on BURTON, Jager enforced 10 yards from the KEN36 to the KEN26 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 12FG10 plays · 27 yds · 5:338% → 9%
UKDrive 13TD4 plays · 81 yds · 1:4192% → 97%
AKRDrive 14PUNT4 plays · -3 yds · 1:394% → 3%
UKDrive 15TD3 plays · 73 yds · 1:0598% → 100%
AKRDrive 16PUNT8 plays · 12 yds · 2:281% → 1%
Q4 13:47
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
99.4%
DJ Irons pass complete to Alex Adams for 2 yds to the AKR 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 17MISSED FG4 plays · 3 yds · 0:481% → 0%
UKDrive 18PUNT5 plays · 13 yds · 1:08100% → 100%
Q4 9:23
4TH & 10
OWN 33
0
99.6%
Wilson Berry punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Bobby Golden at the AKR 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 19DOWNS10 plays · 40 yds · 4:160% → 0%
Q4 9:23
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+5
99.6%
DJ Irons pass complete to Jasaiah Gathings for 5 yds to the AKR 27Similar
Q4 7:18
3RD & 4
OWN 28
+20
99.7%
DJ Irons pass complete to Jasaiah Gathings for 20 yds to the AKR 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:18
2ND & 3
OPP 45
+8
99.7%
DJ Irons pass complete to Jasaiah Gathings for 8 yds to the UK 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:18
2ND & 10
OPP 37
-1
99.7%
DJ Irons pass complete to Alex Adams for a loss of 1 yard to the UK 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 20TD5 plays · 62 yds · 2:03100% → 100%
Q4 5:07
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
99.8%
Akron Penalty, Personal Foul (Devonte Golden-Nelson) to the AKR 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 21END OF GAME12 plays · 50 yds · 2:560% → 0%
Q4 2:56
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+5
100.0%
Jeff Undercuffler Jr. pass complete to TJ Banks for 5 yds to the AKR 24Similar
Q4 2:56
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+8
100.0%
Jeff Undercuffler Jr. pass complete to Caleb Anderson for 8 yds to the AKR 41Similar
Q4 2:56
3RD & 2
OWN 41
+4
100.0%
Jeff Undercuffler Jr. pass complete to Adrian Norton for 4 yds to the AKR 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:56
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
100.0%
Jeff Undercuffler Jr. pass complete to TJ Banks for 4 yds to the AKR 49Similar
Q4 0:20
2ND & 6
OWN 49
+10
100.0%
Jeff Undercuffler Jr. pass complete to Adrian Norton for 10 yds to the UK 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:08
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+29
100.0%
Jeff Undercuffler Jr. pass complete to Lorenzo Lingard for 29 yds to the UK 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-19
100.0%
Jeff Undercuffler Jr. sacked by Tommy Ziesmer for a loss of 19 yards to the UK 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 1:38
Devin Leary pass complete to Ray Davis for 58 yds for a TD (Alex Raynor KICK)
+4.7
TD · Q2 0:08
Devin Leary pass complete to Tayvion Robinson for 22 yds for a TD (Alex Raynor KICK)
+3.4
TD · Q4 13:47
Ray Davis run for 55 yds for a TD (Alex Raynor KICK)
+1.9