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PSU

Penn State 30 at Illinois 13

ILL
2023 · Week 3 · Sep 16, 2023 · Memorial Stadium (Champaign, IL)
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Win probability · ILL
modelILL aheadPSU aheadconfidence bandkey playILL scorePSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of GameFG-0.6ILL 18.3%Alex Felkins 45 yd FG GOODAWAY 6 - HOME 0 · Q1 1:43
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 1:43 · Alex Felkins 45 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+48.0+24.00−24.0−48.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 41Pregame prior−31.3Home team on offense−2.6Score differential−0.9Garbage-time factor−0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 11:04: Kaytron Allen run for 4 yds for a TD (Alex Felkins KICK) — PSU win probability +3.2 pts (now 86%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 2:08: Reggie Love III run for 5 yds for a TD (Caleb Griffin KICK) — ILL win probability +8.6 pts (now 25%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 2:14: Trey Potts pass complete to Tyler Warren for 11 yds for a TD (Alex Felkins KICK) — PSU win probability +8.6 pts (now 93%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 14:24: Nicholas Singleton run for 16 yds for a TD (Alex Felkins KICK) — PSU win probability +4.0 pts (now 98%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 4:21: John Paddock pass complete to Malik Elzy for 19 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — ILL win probability +2.2 pts (now 4%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ILL made the numbers' call on 7 of 8PSU made the numbers' call on 8 of 11
  1. Q1 11:17ILL 4th & 7 at PSU 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 22.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.1%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    22.1%
    58% to make
    Punt
    21.8%−0.3
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:35PSU 4th & 9 at PSU 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.5%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.6%
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:27PSU 4th & 3 at ILL 3, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 75.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.6%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    75.4%−0.2
    93% to make
    Punt
    74.2%−1.4
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:43PSU 4th & 16 at ILL 28, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 73.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.3%−0.6
    15% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    73.9%
    60% to make
    Punt
    72.3%−1.6
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:55ILL 4th & 5 at ILL 18, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.7%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.8%
    average punt
  6. Q2 6:09PSU 4th & 17 at ILL 35, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 80.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.1%−1.1
    15% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    80.2%
    45% to make
    Punt
    79.5%−0.7
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:27PSU 4th & 9 at PSU 36, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.4%−0.8
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.2%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:42ILL 4th & 5 at ILL 36, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.3%−0.9
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.2%
    average punt
  9. Q3 14:04PSU 4th & 5 at PSU 32, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.1%−0.8
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.0%
    average punt
  10. Q3 10:38PSU 4th & 6 at PSU 32, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.8%−1.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.9%
    average punt
  11. Q3 8:14ILL 4th & 7 at ILL 27, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.8%−0.9
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.8%
    average punt
  12. Q3 5:58PSU 4th & 5 at PSU 46, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.2%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.4%
    average punt
  13. Q3 4:16ILL 4th & 11 at ILL 23, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.0%−2.4
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.4%
    average punt
  14. Q4 13:13ILL 4th & 10 at ILL 37, down 23
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.1%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.3%
    average punt
  15. Q4 10:28PSU 4th & 1 at ILL 48, up 23
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    97.9%−0.4
    average punt
  16. Q4 9:04ILL 4th & 12 at ILL 46, down 23
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.6%−0.2
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.8%
    average punt
  17. Q4 7:23PSU 4th & 2 at PSU 28, up 23
    Close callPunted · 98.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.7%−0.1
    average punt
  18. Q4 7:23ILL 4th & 7 at PSU 28, down 23
    Close callWent for it · 1.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.3%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    1.5%
    60% to make
    Punt
    0.7%−0.8
    average punt
  19. Q4 1:47PSU 4th & 4 at PSU 44, up 17
    Close callPunted · 98.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.9%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ILL made the numbers' call on 1 of 2PSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q2 11:04PSU Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 2:08ILL Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    23.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    23.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 2:14PSU Touchdown, up 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 14:24PSU Touchdown, up 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 4:21ILL Touchdown, down 17 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    3.4%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    3.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ILLDrive 1MISSED FG
13 plays · 46 yds · 3:4314% → 16%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
14.0%
Reggie Love III run for 5 yds to the ILL 30Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+12
14.0%
Reggie Love III run for 12 yds to the ILL 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+9
14.0%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Casey Washington for 9 yds to the PSU 49Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 49
+3
14.0%
Reggie Love III run for 3 yds to the PSU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 40
0
14.0%
Luke Altmyer pass incomplete to Casey WashingtonSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 40
-5
14.0%
PENALTY ILL False Start (Gesky,Josh) 5 yards from PSU40 to PSU45. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 45
+13
14.0%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Isaiah Williams for 13 yds to the PSU 32 for a 1ST down Penn State Penalty, Defensive Offside (Jaylen Reed) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
14.0%
Luke Altmyer pass incomplete to Pat BryantSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+3
14.0%
Isaiah Williams run for 3 yds to the PSU 29Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 29
0
14.0%
Luke Altmyer pass incomplete to Isaiah WilliamsSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+6
14.0%
Luke Altmyer run for 6 yds to the PSU 40Similar
Q1 11:17
4TH & 7
OPP 29
+47
15.9%
Caleb Griffin 47 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:4284% → 84%
Q1 11:17
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+1
15.7%
Nicholas Singleton run for 1 yd to the PSU 30Similar
Q1 11:17
2ND & 9
OWN 30
0
15.7%
Drew Allar pass incomplete to Malik McClainSimilar
Q1 11:17
3RD & 9
OWN 30
0
15.8%
Drew Allar pass incomplete to KeAndre Lambert-SmithSimilar
Q1 10:35
4TH & 9
OWN 30
0
16.3%
Riley Thompson punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Isaiah Williams at the ILL 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 3FUMBLE
3 plays · 18 yds · 0:5816% → 17%
Q1 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
16.1%
Penn State Penalty, UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Chop Robinson) to the ILL 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+8
16.3%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Tip Reiman for 8 yds to the ILL 46Similar
Q1 9:37
2ND & 2
OWN 46
+3
17.0%
Josh McCray run for 3 yds to the ILL 43 Josh McCray fumbled, recovered by PSU Kobe KingSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 4FG
10 plays · 40 yds · 4:1084% → 82%
Q1 9:37
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
16.3%
Nicholas Singleton run for 5 yds to the ILL 38Similar
Q1 9:37
2ND & 5
OPP 38
+18
16.2%
Drew Allar pass complete to Nicholas Singleton for 18 yds to the ILL 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:37
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+6
16.2%
Drew Allar pass complete to Malik McClain for 6 yds to the ILL 14Similar
Q1 9:37
2ND & 4
OPP 14
+1
16.2%
Nicholas Singleton run for 1 yd to the ILL 15Similar
Q1 9:37
3RD & 5
OPP 15
+13
16.3%
Drew Allar pass complete to Tyler Warren for 13 yds to the ILL 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
17.1%
Kaytron Allen run for no gain to the ILL 2Similar
Q1 6:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
17.1%
Drew Allar pass incomplete to Kaytron AllenSimilar
Q1 6:50
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
17.3%
Nicholas Singleton run for 1 yd to the ILL 3Similar
Q1 5:27
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+20
17.9%
Alex Felkins 20 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 5INT
7 plays · 18 yds · 2:2518% → 19%
Q1 5:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
17.7%
Reggie Love III run for 7 yds to the ILL 32Similar
Q1 5:27
2ND & 3
OWN 32
0
18.1%
Reggie Love III run for no gain to the ILL 32Similar
Q1 5:27
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+8
17.6%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Tip Reiman for 8 yds to the ILL 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:27
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
18.2%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Hank Beatty for 3 yds to the ILL 43Similar
Q1 5:27
2ND & 7
OWN 43
0
18.3%
Luke Altmyer pass incomplete to Isaiah WilliamsSimilar
Q1 3:02
3RD & 7
OWN 43
-15
18.9%
Illinois Penalty, UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-15 Yards) to the ILL 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 6FG
4 plays · -6 yds · 1:1982% → 82%
Q1 3:02
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+3
18.1%
Kaytron Allen run for 3 yds to the ILL 25Similar
Q1 3:02
2ND & 13
OPP 25
-3
18.3%
Drew Allar sacked by Gabe Jacas for a loss of 3 yards to the ILL 28Similar
Q1 3:02
3RD & 16
OPP 28
0
18.9%
Drew Allar pass incomplete to Malik McClainSimilar
Q1 1:43
4TH & 16
OPP 28
+45
18.3%
Alex Felkins 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 7INT
3 plays · 6 yds · 0:2618% → 19%
Q1 1:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
18.1%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Isaiah Williams for 6 yds to the ILL 31Similar
Q1 1:17
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
18.7%
Luke Altmyer pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 8TD
12 plays · 57 yds · 5:1383% → 86%
Q1 1:17
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
17.5%
Kaytron Allen run for 4 yds to the PSU 47Similar
Q1 1:17
2ND & 6
OWN 47
0
17.6%
Kaytron Allen run for no gain to the PSU 47Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 6
OWN 47
+13
18.0%
Drew Allar pass complete to KeAndre Lambert-Smith for 13 yds to the ILL 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+4
17.7%
Drew Allar run for 4 yds to the ILL 36Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 36
+11
17.6%
Drew Allar pass complete to Tyler Warren for 11 yds to the ILL 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
17.5%
Drew Allar pass incomplete to Liam CliffordSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+4
17.6%
Kaytron Allen run for 4 yds to the ILL 21Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 21
+6
17.7%
Drew Allar run for 6 yds to the ILL 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
17.5%
Drew Allar pass incomplete to Theo JohnsonSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+9
17.5%
Drew Allar pass complete to Kaytron Allen for 9 yds to the ILL 6Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 6
+2
17.6%
Drew Allar run for 2 yds to the ILL 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
14.4%
Kaytron Allen run for 4 yds for a TD (Alex Felkins KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:0316% → 15%
Q2 10:58
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
15.6%
Josh McCray run for no gain to the ILL 13Similar
Q2 10:58
2ND & 10
OWN 13
+5
15.5%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Josh McCray for 5 yds to the ILL 18Similar
Q2 10:58
3RD & 5
OWN 18
0
15.4%
Luke Altmyer pass incomplete to Griffin MooreSimilar
Q2 9:55
4TH & 5
OWN 18
0
15.2%
Hugh Robertson punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Kaden Saunders at the PSU 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 10MISSED FG
9 plays · 26 yds · 3:4685% → 85%
Q2 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
14.7%
Nicholas Singleton run for 3 yds to the PSU 42Similar
Q2 9:55
2ND & 7
OWN 42
+19
14.8%
Drew Allar pass complete to Theo Johnson for 19 yds to the ILL 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:55
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
14.7%
Nicholas Singleton run for 4 yds to the ILL 35Similar
Q2 9:55
2ND & 6
OPP 35
-5
14.6%
PENALTY PSU False Start (Wallace,Caedan) 5 yards from ILL35 to ILL40. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:55
2ND & 11
OPP 40
+12
14.7%
Drew Allar pass complete to Nicholas Singleton for 12 yds to the ILL 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:55
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+3
14.6%
Nicholas Singleton run for 3 yds to the ILL 25Similar
Q2 9:55
2ND & 7
OPP 25
-15
14.6%
Penn State Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the ILL 35Similar
Q2 9:55
3RD & 17
OPP 35
0
15.0%
Drew Allar pass incomplete to Theo JohnsonSimilar
Q2 6:09
4TH & 17
OPP 35
+52
15.4%
Alex Felkins 52 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Jer'Zhan NewtonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 11TD
7 plays · 68 yds · 4:0115% → 25%
Q2 6:09
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+16
15.4%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Pat Bryant for 16 yds to the ILL 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:09
2ND & 6
OPP 48
+3
16.1%
Reggie Love III run for 3 yds to the PSU 45Similar
Q2 6:09
3RD & 3
OPP 45
+30
16.0%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Ashton Hollins for 30 yds to the PSU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:09
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+3
16.7%
Reggie Love III run for 3 yds to the PSU 18Similar
Q2 6:09
2ND & 13
OPP 18
+13
16.5%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Casey Washington for 13 yds to the PSU 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:09
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
15.9%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Reggie Love III for 4 yds to the PSU 48Similar
Q2 2:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
24.5%
Reggie Love III run for 5 yds for a TD (Caleb Griffin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 12PUNT
7 plays · 1 yds · 0:3181% → 79%
Q2 1:58
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
19.5%
Drew Allar pass incomplete to Liam CliffordSimilar
Q2 1:58
2ND & 10
OWN 35
-10
19.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun Allen,Kaytron rush left for 6 yards gain to the PSU41 (Bush,Clayton), out of bounds PENALTY PSU Holding (Fashanu,Olumuyiwa) 10 yards from PSU35 to PSU25. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:58
2ND & 20
OWN 25
+2
20.8%
Drew Allar pass complete to KeAndre Lambert-Smith for 2 yds to the PSU 27Similar
Q2 1:58
3RD & 18
OWN 27
+9
21.2%
Kaytron Allen run for 9 yds to the PSU 36Similar
Q2 1:27
4TH & 9
OWN 36
0
21.4%
Riley Thompson punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Isaiah Williams at the ILL 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 13PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 0:4521% → 21%
Q2 1:27
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+5
20.8%
Isaiah Williams run for 5 yds to the ILL 24Similar
Q2 1:27
2ND & 5
OWN 24
+7
21.0%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Tip Reiman for 7 yds to the ILL 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:27
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
21.2%
Luke Altmyer pass incomplete to Isaiah WilliamsSimilar
Q2 1:27
2ND & 10
OWN 31
0
21.0%
Luke Altmyer pass incomplete to Isaiah WilliamsSimilar
Q2 1:27
3RD & 10
OWN 31
+5
20.1%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Griffin Moore for 5 yds to the ILL 36Similar
Q2 0:42
4TH & 5
OWN 36
+19
21.0%
Hugh Robertson punt for 42 yds , Kaden Saunders returns for 19 yds to the PSU 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 14FG
8 plays · 48 yds · 0:4281% → 85%
Q2 0:42
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
18.8%
Drew Allar pass incomplete to Malik McClainSimilar
Q2 0:42
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+8
19.2%
Drew Allar run for 8 yds to the PSU 49Similar
Q2 0:30
3RD & 2
OWN 49
+7
19.5%
Drew Allar run for 7 yds to the ILL 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:30
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+33
18.6%
Drew Allar pass complete to Liam Clifford for 33 yds to the ILL 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:10
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
17.4%
Drew Allar pass incomplete to Tyler WarrenSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+28
15.3%
Alex Felkins 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:5182% → 81%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+5
18.3%
Kaytron Allen run for 5 yds to the PSU 32Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 5
OWN 32
0
17.8%
Drew Allar pass incomplete to Malik McClainSimilar
Q3 14:55
3RD & 5
OWN 32
0
18.3%
Drew Allar pass incomplete to Liam CliffordSimilar
Q3 14:04
4TH & 5
OWN 32
+13
19.3%
Riley Thompson punt for 42 yds , Isaiah Williams returns for 13 yds to the ILL 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 16INT
3 plays · 36 yds · 1:3221% → 23%
Q3 14:04
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
20.5%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Isaiah Williams for 4 yds to the ILL 43Similar
Q3 14:04
2ND & 6
OWN 43
+32
21.1%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Isaiah Williams for 32 yds to the PSU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:32
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
23.0%
Luke Altmyer pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:5482% → 80%
Q3 12:32
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+8
18.5%
Drew Allar pass complete to KeAndre Lambert-Smith for 8 yds to the PSU 36Similar
Q3 12:32
2ND & 2
OWN 36
+1
17.9%
Nicholas Singleton run for 1 yd to the PSU 37Similar
Q3 12:32
3RD & 1
OWN 37
-5
18.3%
PENALTY PSU False Start (Nourzad,Hunter) 5 yards from PSU37 to PSU32. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 12:32
3RD & 6
OWN 32
0
18.7%
Drew Allar pass incomplete to Malik McClainSimilar
Q3 10:38
4TH & 6
OWN 32
0
20.0%
Riley Thompson punt for 44 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 18PUNT
7 plays · 3 yds · 2:2419% → 18%
Q3 10:38
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+1
19.4%
Reggie Love III run for 1 yd to the ILL 25Similar
Q3 10:38
2ND & 9
OWN 25
+1
19.3%
Reggie Love III run for 1 yd to the ILL 24Similar
Q3 10:38
3RD & 10
OWN 24
0
18.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun Altmyer,Luke pass incomplete short right to Bryant,Pat PENALTY ILL Holding offsetting PSU Holding offsetting. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:38
3RD & 10
OWN 24
-12
18.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun Altmyer,Luke pass complete short middle to Bryant,Pat for 14 yards to the ILL38 (Jacobs,Curtis) PENALTY ILL Pass Interference (Bryant,Pat) 12 yards from ILL24 to ILL12. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:38
3RD & 22
OWN 12
+20
18.3%
Reggie Love III run for 20 yds to the ILL 32Similar
Q3 10:38
4TH & 2
OWN 32
-5
18.9%
PENALTY ILL Delay Of Game (Altmyer,Luke) 5 yards from ILL32 to ILL27. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:14
4TH & 7
OWN 27
0
17.9%
Hugh Robertson punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Kaden Saunders at the PSU 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · 16 yds · 2:1682% → 81%
Q3 8:14
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
18.2%
Kaytron Allen run for 1 yd to the PSU 31Similar
Q3 8:14
2ND & 9
OWN 31
+10
18.3%
Drew Allar pass complete to Kaden Saunders for 10 yds to the PSU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:14
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
17.4%
Kaytron Allen run for 5 yds to the PSU 46Similar
Q3 8:14
2ND & 5
OWN 46
0
17.4%
Drew Allar pass incomplete to KeAndre Lambert-SmithSimilar
Q3 8:14
3RD & 5
OWN 46
0
17.6%
Drew Allar pass incomplete to Dante CephasSimilar
Q3 5:58
4TH & 5
OWN 46
+30
18.6%
Riley Thompson punt blocked by Ryan Meed blocked by Ryan MeedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 1:4220% → 18%
Q3 5:58
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+3
19.7%
Josh McCray run for 3 yds to the ILL 27Similar
Q3 5:58
2ND & 7
OWN 27
+1
20.0%
Luke Altmyer run for 1 yd to the ILL 28Similar
Q3 5:58
3RD & 6
OWN 28
-5
19.1%
PENALTY ILL False Start (Adams,Isaiah) 5 yards from ILL28 to ILL23. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:58
3RD & 11
OWN 23
0
18.5%
Luke Altmyer pass incomplete to Isaiah WilliamsSimilar
Q3 4:16
4TH & 11
OWN 23
0
17.8%
Hugh Robertson punt for 44 yds , Kaden Saunders returns for no gain to the PSU 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 21TD
8 plays · 70 yds · 2:0282% → 93%
Q3 4:16
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
18.3%
Drew Allar pass incomplete to Kaden SaundersSimilar
Q3 4:16
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+9
18.7%
Drew Allar pass complete to Kaden Saunders for 9 yds to the PSU 39Similar
Q3 3:31
3RD & 1
OWN 39
+19
17.0%
Drew Allar pass complete to Nicholas Singleton for 19 yds to the ILL 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:31
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
16.2%
Drew Allar pass incomplete to Theo JohnsonSimilar
Q3 3:31
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+13
16.3%
Drew Allar pass complete to Theo Johnson for 13 yds to the ILL 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:31
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+18
15.5%
Kaytron Allen run for 18 yds to the ILL 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:14
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
6.9%
Trey Potts pass complete to Tyler Warren for 11 yds for a TD (Alex Felkins KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 22INT
6 plays · 2 yds · 1:3410% → 10%
Q3 2:09
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+8
10.0%
Luke Altmyer run for 8 yds to the ILL 24Similar
Q3 2:09
2ND & 2
OWN 24
+3
10.4%
Reggie Love III run for 3 yds to the ILL 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:09
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
10.1%
Luke Altmyer pass incomplete to Tip ReimanSimilar
Q3 2:09
2ND & 10
OWN 27
-9
9.9%
Luke Altmyer sacked for a loss of 9 yards to the ILL 18Similar
Q3 0:35
3RD & 19
OWN 18
0
9.7%
Luke Altmyer pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 23TD
3 plays · 30 yds · 0:3694% → 98%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+1
5.6%
Nicholas Singleton run for 1 yd to the ILL 29Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 29
+13
5.8%
Drew Allar pass complete to Dante Cephas for 13 yds to the ILL 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:24
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
1.7%
Nicholas Singleton run for 16 yds for a TD (Alex Felkins KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 24PUNT
8 plays · 12 yds · 1:113% → 2%
Q4 14:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
2.5%
Kaden Feagin run for 4 yds to the ILL 29Similar
Q4 14:24
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
2.5%
John Paddock pass incomplete to Pat BryantSimilar
Q4 14:24
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+8
2.5%
John Paddock pass complete to Isaiah Williams for 8 yds to the ILL 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:24
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
2.5%
John Paddock pass incomplete to Isaiah WilliamsSimilar
Q4 14:24
2ND & 10
OWN 37
0
2.5%
John Paddock pass incomplete to Griffin MooreSimilar
Q4 14:24
3RD & 10
OWN 37
0
2.4%
John Paddock pass incomplete to Malik ElzySimilar
Q4 13:13
4TH & 10
OWN 37
0
2.1%
Hugh Robertson punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Kaden Saunders at the PSU 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 25DOWNS
6 plays · 20 yds · 2:4598% → 99%
Q4 13:13
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
1.8%
Beau Pribula run for 5 yds to the PSU 37Similar
Q4 13:13
2ND & 5
OWN 37
+6
1.8%
Beau Pribula run for 6 yds to the PSU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:13
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
1.7%
Beau Pribula run for 2 yds to the PSU 45Similar
Q4 13:13
2ND & 8
OWN 45
+3
1.7%
Kaytron Allen run for 3 yds to the PSU 48Similar
Q4 13:13
3RD & 5
OWN 48
+4
1.7%
Kaytron Allen run for 4 yds to the ILL 48Similar
Q4 10:28
4TH & 1
OPP 48
0
1.4%
Beau Pribula run for no gain to the ILL 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 26PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 1:242% → 2%
Q4 10:28
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
2.0%
John Paddock pass complete to Kenari Wilcher for 4 yds to the PSU 48Similar
Q4 10:28
2ND & 6
OPP 48
-1
2.0%
John Paddock sacked by Coziah Izzard for a loss of 1 yard to the PSU 49Similar
Q4 10:28
3RD & 7
OPP 49
-5
2.0%
PENALTY ILL False Start (Kreutz,Josh) 5 yards from PSU49 to ILL46. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:28
3RD & 12
OWN 46
0
1.8%
John Paddock pass incomplete to Ashton HollinsSimilar
Q4 9:04
4TH & 12
OWN 46
0
1.8%
Hugh Robertson punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Kaden Saunders at the PSU 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 27PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:4199% → 99%
Q4 9:04
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
1.3%
Trey Potts run for 2 yds to the PSU 22Similar
Q4 9:04
2ND & 8
OWN 22
0
1.3%
Beau Pribula pass incomplete to Nicholas SingletonSimilar
Q4 9:04
3RD & 8
OWN 22
+6
1.4%
Beau Pribula run for 6 yds to the PSU 28Similar
Q4 7:23
4TH & 2
OWN 28
+13
1.1%
Riley Thompson punt for 43 yds , Isaiah Williams returns for 13 yds to the ILL 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 28TD
9 plays · 58 yds · 3:021% → 4%
Q4 7:23
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
1.3%
Kaden Feagin run for 3 yds to the ILL 45Similar
Q4 7:23
2ND & 7
OWN 45
+4
1.3%
John Paddock pass complete to Henry Boyer for 4 yds to the ILL 49Similar
Q4 7:23
3RD & 3
OWN 49
+5
1.3%
Kaden Feagin run for 5 yds to the PSU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:23
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+15
1.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun Paddock,John pass incomplete deep left to Elzy,Malik PENALTY PSU Pass Interference (Miller,Cam) 15 yards from PSU46 to PSU31, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 7:23
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
1.5%
John Paddock pass incomplete to Malik ElzySimilar
Q4 7:23
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+3
1.4%
Kaden Feagin run for 3 yds to the PSU 28Similar
Q4 7:23
3RD & 7
OPP 28
0
1.4%
John Paddock pass complete to Malik Elzy for no gain to the PSU 28Similar
Q4 7:23
4TH & 7
OPP 28
+9
1.3%
John Paddock pass complete to Malik Elzy for 9 yds to the PSU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:21
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+19
3.5%
John Paddock pass complete to Malik Elzy for 19 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 29PUNT
9 plays · 28 yds · 2:3197% → 98%
Q4 4:18
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+1
2.7%
Beau Pribula run for 1 yd to the PSU 17Similar
Q4 4:18
2ND & 9
OWN 17
0
2.8%
Beau Pribula pass incomplete to Omari EvansSimilar
Q4 4:18
3RD & 9
OWN 17
+21
2.9%
Beau Pribula run for 21 yds to the PSU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:18
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
2.5%
Beau Pribula pass incomplete to Trey PottsSimilar
Q4 4:18
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+3
2.5%
Beau Pribula run for 3 yds to the PSU 35 Beau Pribula fumbled, recovered by PSU Beau PribulaSimilar
Q4 4:18
3RD & 13
OWN 35
+9
2.8%
Beau Pribula run for 9 yds to the PSU 44Similar
Q4 1:47
4TH & 4
OWN 44
+6
1.7%
Riley Thompson punt for 44 yds , Hank Beatty returns for 6 yds to the ILL 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 30END OF GAME
8 plays · 71 yds · 1:472% → 1%
Q4 1:47
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+12
1.8%
John Paddock pass complete to Aidan Laughery for 12 yds to the ILL 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:47
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
1.8%
John Paddock pass complete to Kenari Wilcher for no gain to the ILL 30Similar
Q4 1:47
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+5
1.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun Paddock,John pass incomplete short left to Elzy,Malik PENALTY PSU Pass Interference (Tracy,Zion) 5 yards from ILL30 to ILL35, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:47
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+26
1.9%
John Paddock pass complete to Hank Beatty for 26 yds to the PSU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:47
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+1
2.0%
John Paddock run for 1 yd to the PSU 38Similar
Q4 0:33
2ND & 9
OPP 38
-20
0.9%
John Paddock sacked by Coziah Izzard for a loss of 20 yards to the ILL 42Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 29
OWN 42
+47
0.8%
John Paddock pass complete to Kenari Wilcher for 47 yds to the PSU 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 2:08
Reggie Love III run for 5 yds for a TD (Caleb Griffin KICK)
+8.6
TD · Q3 2:14
Trey Potts pass complete to Tyler Warren for 11 yds for a TD (Alex Felkins KICK)
-8.6
TD · Q4 14:24
Nicholas Singleton run for 16 yds for a TD (Alex Felkins KICK)
-4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com