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NU

Northwestern 14 at Duke 38

DUKE
2023 · Week 3 · Sep 16, 2023 · Wallace Wade Stadium
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Win probability · DUKE
modelDUKE aheadNU aheadconfidence bandkey playDUKE scoreNU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 9:20 · Hunter Renner punt for 29 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+38.5+19.30−19.3−38.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 16Pregame prior+35.4Home team on offense+1.0Score differential+0.2Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.3Blowout margin+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 14:19: Jordan Waters run for 2 yds for a TD (Todd Pelino KICK) — DUKE win probability +3.0 pts (now 90%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 9:06: Todd Pelino 35 yd FG GOOD — DUKE win probability +2.4 pts (now 92%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:34: Ben Bryant pass complete to A.J. Henning for 14 yds for a TD (Jack Olsen KICK) — NU win probability +5.5 pts (now 16%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 10:01: Riley Leonard run for 3 yds for a TD (Todd Pelino KICK) — DUKE win probability +6.2 pts (now 95%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 3:08: Riley Leonard run for 2 yds for a TD (Todd Pelino KICK) — DUKE win probability +2.6 pts (now 98%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
DUKE made the numbers' call on 2 of 3NU made the numbers' call on 5 of 8
  1. Q1 13:51NU 4th & 1 at NU 34, tied
    Close callPunted · 13.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.5%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:20NU 4th & 10 at NU 36, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.7%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.7%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:49DUKE 4th & 1 at NU 43, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 86.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    86.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    85.6%−0.4
    28% to make
    Punt
    85.7%−0.3
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:40NU 4th & 16 at midfield, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.2%−0.3
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.5%
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:03NU 4th & 4 at NU 37, down 14
    Close callPunted · 12.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.3%−0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:06DUKE 4th & 4 at NU 17, up 14
    Close callKicked a field goal · 88.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.7%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    88.5%−0.2
    80% to make
    Punt
    85.2%−3.4
    average punt
  7. Q3 8:40NU 4th & 12 at NU 48, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.4%−0.9
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.3%
    average punt
  8. Q3 1:05NU 4th & 8 at DUKE 40, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.6%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    1.5%−0.1
    34% to make
    Punt
    1.5%−0.1
    average punt
  9. Q4 14:53NU 4th & 8 at DUKE 9, down 24
    Close callWent for it · 1.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.2%−0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    1.4%
    89% to make
    Punt
    0.4%−1.0
    average punt
  10. Q4 11:53DUKE 4th & 5 at DUKE 28, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.8%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.9%
    average punt
  11. Q4 8:59NU 4th & 2 at NU 27, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.9%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
DUKE made the numbers' call on 5 of 5NU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 11:06DUKE Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:19DUKE Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:34NU Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    12.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    12.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 10:01DUKE Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 3:08DUKE Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 6:32DUKE Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 1:27NU Touchdown, down 25 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NUDrive 1PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:0912% → 12%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
88.1%
A.J. Henning run for 9 yds to the NU 34Similar
Q1 14:39
2ND & 1
OWN 34
0
88.0%
Ben Bryant pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:34
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
88.0%
Ben Bryant run for no gain to the NU 34Similar
Q1 13:51
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
87.8%
Hunter Renner punt for 22 yds, downed at the DUKE 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 2TD
6 plays · 56 yds · 2:3688% → 88%
Q1 13:42
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
87.8%
Riley Leonard pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:38
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+9
87.8%
Riley Leonard run for 9 yds to the NU 47Similar
Q1 12:55
3RD & 1
OPP 47
+7
87.7%
Jordan Waters run for 7 yds to the NU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:14
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+4
87.5%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Sahmir Hagans for 4 yds to the NU 36Similar
Q1 11:51
2ND & 6
OPP 36
+12
87.4%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Nicky Dalmolin for 12 yds to the NU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:06
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+24
87.9%
Jordan Waters run for 24 yds for a TD (Todd Pelino KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 11 yds · 1:4612% → 12%
Q1 11:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
87.6%
Cam Porter run for 4 yds to the NU 29Similar
Q1 10:47
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+7
87.5%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Cam Johnson for 7 yds to the NU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:12
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
87.4%
Ben Bryant pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:07
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
87.4%
Joseph Himon II run for no gain to the NU 36Similar
Q1 9:26
3RD & 10
OWN 36
0
87.5%
Ben Bryant pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:20
4TH & 10
OWN 36
0
87.6%
Hunter Renner punt for 29 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 4DOWNS
5 plays · 22 yds · 2:2688% → 87%
Q1 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+13
87.6%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 13 yds to the DUKE 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:59
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+7
87.7%
Riley Leonard run for 7 yds to the NU 45Similar
Q1 8:13
2ND & 3
OPP 45
-1
87.7%
Jaquez Moore run for a loss of 1 yard to the NU 46Similar
Q1 7:33
3RD & 4
OPP 46
+3
87.5%
Jaquez Moore run for 3 yds to the NU 43Similar
Q1 6:49
4TH & 1
OPP 43
0
87.2%
Riley Leonard run for no gain to the NU 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 5PUNT
7 plays · 7 yds · 2:5913% → 13%
Q1 6:39
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
86.9%
Ben Bryant pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:35
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+2
86.9%
Cam Porter run for 2 yds to the NU 45Similar
Q1 5:58
3RD & 8
OWN 45
+11
86.9%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Bryce Kirtz for 11 yds to the DUKE 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:40
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+4
86.5%
Cam Porter run for 4 yds to the DUKE 40Similar
Q1 5:01
2ND & 6
OPP 40
-2
86.3%
Ben Bryant run for a loss of 2 yards to the DUKE 42Similar
Q1 4:18
3RD & 8
OPP 42
-8
86.3%
Ben Bryant sacked by Kendall Johnson for a loss of 8 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 3:40
4TH & 16
50
0
86.9%
Hunter Renner punt for 39 yds, downed at the DUKE 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 6TD
8 plays · 89 yds · 4:1287% → 90%
Q1 3:31
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+15
86.7%
Jaquez Moore run for 15 yds to the DUKE 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:56
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+13
86.7%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jordan Moore for 13 yds to the DUKE 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:09
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+15
86.8%
Jaquez Moore run for 15 yds to the NU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:49
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+34
87.0%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 34 yds to the NU 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:04
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+5
86.9%
Jordan Waters run for 5 yds to the NU 7Similar
Q1 0:24
2ND & 5
OPP 7
+6
86.9%
Riley Leonard run for 6 yds to the NU 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
86.8%
Jordan Waters run for a loss of 1 yard to the NU 2Similar
Q2 14:19
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
89.8%
Jordan Waters run for 2 yds for a TD (Todd Pelino KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:1112% → 11%
Q2 14:14
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
88.3%
Cam Porter run for 5 yds to the NU 36Similar
Q2 13:48
2ND & 5
OWN 36
+1
88.4%
Cam Porter run for 1 yd to the NU 37Similar
Q2 13:10
3RD & 4
OWN 37
0
88.5%
Ben Bryant pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:03
4TH & 4
OWN 37
0
88.7%
Hunter Renner punt for 36 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 8FG
8 plays · 56 yds · 3:5090% → 92%
Q2 12:56
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
89.5%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jordan Moore for 4 yds to the DUKE 31Similar
Q2 12:34
2ND & 6
OWN 31
+13
89.6%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 13 yds to the DUKE 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:59
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+33
90.0%
Riley Leonard run for 33 yds to the NU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:12
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+1
89.5%
Jaquez Moore run for 1 yd to the NU 22Similar
Q2 10:33
2ND & 9
OPP 22
-1
89.6%
Jaquez Moore run for a loss of 1 yard to the NU 23Similar
Q2 9:48
3RD & 10
OPP 23
+6
89.3%
Riley Leonard run for 6 yds to the NU 17Similar
Q2 9:06
4TH & 4
OPP 17
+35
91.7%
Todd Pelino 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 9TD
16 plays · 73 yds · 8:269% → 16%
Q2 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+5
91.0%
A.J. Henning run for 5 yds to the NU 32Similar
Q2 8:29
2ND & 5
OWN 32
+1
90.8%
Joseph Himon II run for 1 yd to the NU 33Similar
Q2 7:50
3RD & 4
OWN 33
+9
90.6%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Cam Johnson for 9 yds to the NU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:26
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
90.5%
Cam Porter run for 5 yds to the NU 47Similar
Q2 6:58
2ND & 5
OWN 47
+3
90.2%
Cam Porter run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 6:18
3RD & 2
50
+3
90.3%
A.J. Henning run for 3 yds to the DUKE 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:47
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+8
90.3%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Marshall Lang for 8 yds to the DUKE 39Similar
Q2 5:11
2ND & 2
OPP 39
+3
90.0%
Joseph Himon II run for 3 yds to the DUKE 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:31
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+4
90.2%
Jack Lausch run for 4 yds to the DUKE 32Similar
Q2 3:59
2ND & 6
OPP 32
+6
89.7%
Joseph Himon II run for 6 yds to the DUKE 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:26
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+5
89.7%
Ben Bryant pass complete to A.J. Henning for 5 yds to the DUKE 21Similar
Q2 2:55
2ND & 5
OPP 21
-2
89.8%
Cam Porter run for a loss of 2 yards to the DUKE 23Similar
Q2 2:10
3RD & 7
OPP 23
+9
90.6%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Bryce Kirtz for 9 yds to the DUKE 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:26
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
89.5%
Jack Lausch run for no gain to the DUKE 14Similar
Q2 0:34
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+14
84.1%
Ben Bryant pass complete to A.J. Henning for 14 yds for a TD (Jack Olsen KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 10END OF HALF
5 plays · 15 yds · 0:3187% → 86%
Q2 0:34
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+24
86.8%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 24 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:23
1ST & 10
50
0
87.5%
Riley Leonard pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:16
2ND & 10
50
-2
87.4%
Riley Leonard sacked by Anto Saka for a loss of 2 yards to the DUKE 48Similar
Q2 0:03
3RD & 12
OWN 48
-7
86.0%
Henry Belin IV sacked by Xander Mueller and Richie Hagarty for a loss of 7 yards to the DUKE 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 11TD
9 plays · 80 yds · 4:5587% → 95%
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
86.9%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Nicky Dalmolin for 5 yds to the DUKE 25Similar
Q3 14:24
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+4
87.0%
Jordan Waters run for 4 yds to the DUKE 29Similar
Q3 13:49
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+4
86.6%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jordan Moore for 4 yds to the DUKE 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:12
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+7
87.0%
Riley Leonard run for 7 yds to the DUKE 40Similar
Q3 12:34
2ND & 3
OWN 40
+20
88.0%
Northwestern Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (20 Yards) to the NU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:02
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+10
88.1%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jordan Waters for 10 yds to the NU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:20
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+2
88.5%
Jordan Waters run for 2 yds to the NU 28Similar
Q3 10:47
2ND & 8
OPP 28
+25
88.5%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jordan Moore for 25 yds to the NU 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
94.7%
Riley Leonard run for 3 yds for a TD (Todd Pelino KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 23 yds · 1:217% → 7%
Q3 10:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
93.1%
Ben Bryant pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:57
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+25
93.3%
Cam Porter run for 25 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:30
1ST & 10
50
-2
92.3%
Ben Bryant pass complete to A.J. Henning for a loss of 2 yards to the NU 48Similar
Q3 8:54
2ND & 12
OWN 48
0
92.9%
Ben Bryant pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:45
3RD & 12
OWN 48
0
93.4%
Ben Bryant pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:40
4TH & 12
OWN 48
0
93.5%
Hunter Renner punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Jalon Calhoun at the DUKE 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 13TD
12 plays · 94 yds · 5:2795% → 98%
Q3 8:35
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+13
94.7%
Riley Leonard run for 13 yds to the DUKE 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:04
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+4
94.9%
Jaquez Moore run for 4 yds to the DUKE 23Similar
Q3 7:27
2ND & 6
OWN 23
0
95.0%
Riley Leonard pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:21
3RD & 6
OWN 23
+28
94.8%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 28 yds to the NU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:55
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
95.3%
Riley Leonard pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:47
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+10
95.3%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jordan Moore for 10 yds to the NU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:08
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+19
95.5%
Jaquez Moore run for 19 yds to the NU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:27
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
95.5%
Riley Leonard pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:20
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+12
95.6%
Riley Leonard run for 12 yds to the NU 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+5
95.7%
Jordan Waters run for 5 yds to the NU 3Similar
Q3 3:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
95.8%
Jaquez Moore run for 1 yd to the NU 2Similar
Q3 3:08
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
98.4%
Riley Leonard run for 2 yds for a TD (Todd Pelino KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 14DOWNS
13 plays · 63 yds · 3:082% → 1%
Q3 3:01
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+13
98.0%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Cam Johnson for 13 yds to the NU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
98.0%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Cam Porter for 2 yds to the NU 43Similar
Q3 2:10
2ND & 8
OWN 43
0
98.3%
Ben Bryant pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:05
3RD & 8
OWN 43
+15
98.3%
Duke Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Al Blades Jr.) to the DUKE 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:59
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
98.3%
Ben Bryant pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:54
2ND & 10
OPP 42
0
98.3%
Ben Bryant pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:50
3RD & 10
OPP 42
+2
98.4%
Ben Bryant pass complete to A.J. Henning for 2 yds to the DUKE 40Similar
Q3 1:05
4TH & 8
OPP 40
+9
98.4%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Cam Johnson for 9 yds to the DUKE 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:42
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+20
98.2%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Bryce Kirtz for 20 yds to the DUKE 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:19
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+2
98.4%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Cam Porter for 2 yds to the DUKE 9Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 9
0
98.4%
Ben Bryant pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:56
3RD & 8
OPP 9
0
98.5%
Ben Bryant pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:53
4TH & 8
OPP 9
0
98.6%
Ben Bryant pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 15PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 2:5499% → 99%
Q4 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+14
98.6%
Jordan Waters run for 14 yds to the DUKE 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:05
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+3
98.8%
Jordan Waters run for 3 yds to the DUKE 26Similar
Q4 13:19
2ND & 7
OWN 26
+1
98.8%
Peyton Jones run for 1 yd to the DUKE 27Similar
Q4 12:34
3RD & 6
OWN 27
+1
99.3%
Riley Leonard run for 1 yd to the DUKE 28Similar
Q4 11:53
4TH & 5
OWN 28
0
99.3%
Porter Wilson punt for 53 yds , returns for no gain to the NU 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 16DOWNS
7 plays · 18 yds · 2:431% → 1%
Q4 11:42
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+2
98.9%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Bryce Kirtz for 2 yds to the NU 10Similar
Q4 11:10
2ND & 8
OWN 10
+7
98.9%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Cam Johnson for 7 yds to the NU 17Similar
Q4 10:40
3RD & 1
OWN 17
+2
98.9%
Cam Porter run for 2 yds to the NU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+3
98.9%
Ben Bryant run for 3 yds to the NU 22Similar
Q4 9:46
2ND & 7
OWN 22
+5
99.0%
Ben Bryant pass complete to A.J. Henning for 5 yds to the NU 27Similar
Q4 9:05
3RD & 2
OWN 27
0
98.9%
Ben Bryant pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:59
4TH & 2
OWN 27
0
99.0%
Ben Bryant pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 17TD
4 plays · 26 yds · 2:20100% → 100%
Q4 8:52
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+5
99.6%
Jaquez Moore run for 5 yds to the NU 21Similar
Q4 8:05
2ND & 5
OPP 21
+3
99.6%
Peyton Jones run for 3 yds to the NU 18Similar
Q4 7:21
3RD & 2
OPP 18
+3
99.6%
Peyton Jones run for 3 yds to the NU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:32
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
99.9%
Peyton Jones run for 15 yds for a TD (Todd Pelino KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 18TD
13 plays · 71 yds · 5:010% → 1%
Q4 6:28
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+14
99.9%
Brendan Sullivan pass complete to Caleb Komolafe for 14 yds to the NU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:11
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+9
99.9%
Brendan Sullivan pass complete to Caleb Komolafe for 9 yds to the DUKE 48Similar
Q4 5:42
2ND & 1
OPP 48
-3
99.9%
Brendan Sullivan sacked by Aaron Hall and Michael Reese for a loss of 3 yards to the NU 49Similar
Q4 5:12
3RD & 4
OWN 49
+6
99.9%
Brendan Sullivan run for 6 yds to the DUKE 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:50
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
99.9%
Brendan Sullivan pass complete to Caleb Komolafe for 3 yds to the DUKE 42Similar
Q4 4:20
2ND & 7
OPP 42
+6
99.9%
Brendan Sullivan pass complete to Lawson Albright for 6 yds to the DUKE 36Similar
Q4 3:56
3RD & 1
OPP 36
+4
99.9%
Joseph Himon II run for 4 yds to the DUKE 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:32
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+8
99.9%
Brendan Sullivan pass complete to Calvin Johnson II for 8 yds to the DUKE 24Similar
Q4 3:09
2ND & 2
OPP 24
+1
99.9%
Brendan Sullivan run for 1 yd to the DUKE 23Similar
Q4 2:42
3RD & 1
OPP 23
+5
99.9%
Joseph Himon II run for 5 yds to the DUKE 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:13
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+8
99.9%
Brendan Sullivan run for 8 yds to the DUKE 10Similar
Q4 1:36
2ND & 2
OPP 10
0
99.9%
Brendan Sullivan pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:27
3RD & 2
OPP 10
+10
99.3%
Brendan Sullivan run for 10 yds for a TD (Jack Olsen KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 19END OF GAME
2 plays · 30 yds · 0:47100% → 100%
Q4 1:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+32
99.8%
Travis Bates run for 32 yds to the NU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:40
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
99.8%
(00:40) Kneel down by DU at NU45 (team loss of 2).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 10:01
Riley Leonard run for 3 yds for a TD (Todd Pelino KICK)
+6.2
TD · Q2 0:34
Ben Bryant pass complete to A.J. Henning for 14 yds for a TD (Jack Olsen KICK)
-5.5
TD · Q2 14:19
Jordan Waters run for 2 yds for a TD (Todd Pelino KICK)
+3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com