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LIB

Liberty 55 at Buffalo 27

BUF
2023 · Week 3 · Sep 16, 2023 · UB Stadium
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Win probability · BUF
modelBUF aheadLIB aheadconfidence bandkey playBUF scoreLIB score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 10:58 · Cole Snyder pass incomplete to Boobie Curry for a 1ST down Liberty Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Kobe Singleton) to the LIB 2 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsPregame prior
+56.5+28.30−28.3−56.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 148Home team on offense−50.5Score differential−40.3Garbage-time factor−18.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−8.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.1Pregame prior−0.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 11:03: Kaidon Salter pass complete to Elijah Smoot for 42 yds for a TD (Nick Brown KICK) — LIB win probability +12.7 pts (now 72%) (top driver: LIB has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 8:33: Kaidon Salter run for 1 yd for a TD (Nick Brown KICK) — LIB win probability +8.6 pts (now 82%) (top driver: LIB has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 8:40: Kaidon Salter pass complete to Elijah Smoot for 33 yds for a TD Buffalo Penalty, face mask (0 yards) (Charles McCartherens) to the BUFF 0 (Nick Brown KICK) — LIB win probability +13.7 pts (now 92%) (top driver: LIB has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 4:20: Cole Snyder pass complete to Ron Cook Jr. for 2 yds for a TD (Alex McNulty KICK) — BUF win probability +11.1 pts (now 26%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 3:25: Kaidon Salter pass complete to CJ Daniels for 75 yds for a TD (Nick Brown KICK) — LIB win probability +11.4 pts (now 95%) (top driver: LIB has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BUF made the numbers' call on 6 of 12LIB made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 11:18LIB 4th & 9 at BUF 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 54.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.8%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    54.9%
    72% to make
    Punt
    54.4%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:41BUF 4th & 4 at BUF 29, down 3
    Close callPunted · 44.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.9%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:43LIB 4th & 3 at LIB 44, up 3
    Close callPunted · 54.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.8%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:56BUF 4th & 2 at BUF 33, down 3
    Close callPunted · 45.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:06BUF 4th & 3 at LIB 22, down 10
    Close callKicked a field goal · 40.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    40.3%−0.2
    72% to make
    Punt
    38.1%−2.4
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:54LIB 4th & 2 at BUF 25, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 59.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    59.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    59.4%−0.5
    66% to make
    Punt
    56.8%−3.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 13:53BUF 4th & 15 at BUF 21, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.2%−1.2
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.4%
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:41LIB 4th & 12 at LIB 49, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.6%−0.7
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.3%
    average punt
  9. Q3 12:13LIB 4th & 9 at BUF 18, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 69.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.0%−1.1
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    69.1%
    79% to make
    Punt
    62.6%−6.5
    average punt
  10. Q3 9:40BUF 4th & 3 at BUF 42, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 26.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    27.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    27.1%−0.2
    average punt
  11. Q3 8:38BUF 4th & 2 at LIB 20, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 14.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    14.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    13.5%−1.1
    75% to make
    Punt
    6.0%−8.7
    average punt
  12. Q3 1:28BUF 4th & 4 at BUF 31, down 20
    Close callWent for it · 5.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.1%−0.7
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    6.8%
    average punt
  13. Q4 10:58BUF 4th & 5 at LIB 10, down 28
    Close callWent for it · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.4%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    0.5%
    88% to make
    Punt
    0.1%−0.4
    average punt
  14. Q4 7:56LIB 4th & 2 at LIB 24, up 28
    Close callPunted · 99.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.6%−<0.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 6:34BUF 4th & 10 at BUF 12, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  16. Q4 5:39BUF 4th & 8 at BUF 27, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  17. Q4 4:05LIB 4th & 5 at LIB 45, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.7%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.8%
    average punt
  18. Q4 3:09BUF 4th & 8 at BUF 19, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  19. Q4 2:22LIB 4th & 8 at BUF 39, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.8%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    99.8%−<0.1
    36% to make
    Punt
    99.7%−0.1
    average punt
  20. Q4 1:49BUF 4th & 5 at BUF 44, down 28
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BUF made the numbers' call on 3 of 3LIB made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 5:43LIB Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 11:03LIB Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 8:33LIB Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 5:38BUF Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    24.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    23.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:28BUF Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    31.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    30.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 8:40LIB Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 4:20BUF Touchdown, down 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    17.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    17.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 3:25LIB Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 14:57LIB Touchdown, up 26 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
LIBDrive 1FG
10 plays · 52 yds · 3:4255% → 54%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
45.5%
Kaidon Salter run for 2 yds to the LIB 28Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 28
+10
45.5%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Elijah Smoot for 10 yds to the LIB 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
45.5%
Kylen Austin run for 3 yds to the LIB 41Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+10
45.5%
Kaidon Salter run for 10 yds to the BUFF 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+26
45.5%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Treon Sibley for 26 yds to the BUFF 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+1
45.5%
Billy Lucas run for 1 yd to the BUFF 22Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 22
0
45.5%
pass incomplete to Elijah SmootSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 22
0
45.5%
pass incomplete to Elijah SmootSimilar
Q1 11:18
4TH & 9
OPP 22
+39
46.1%
Nick Brown 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:3046% → 46%
Q1 11:11
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-1
46.1%
Mike Washington run for a loss of 1 yard to the BUFF 22Similar
Q1 11:11
2ND & 11
OWN 22
+7
46.1%
Mike Washington run for 7 yds to the BUFF 29Similar
Q1 11:11
3RD & 4
OWN 29
0
46.0%
Cole Snyder pass incomplete to Marlyn Johnson, broken up by Jerome Jolly Jr.Similar
Q1 9:41
4TH & 4
OWN 29
+11
46.0%
Anthony Venneri punt for 45 yds , Brylan Green returns for 11 yds to the LIB 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:5854% → 54%
Q1 9:41
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
46.2%
Kaidon Salter pass incomplete to CJ Daniels, broken up by Jyaire StevensSimilar
Q1 9:41
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+7
46.3%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to CJ Daniels for 7 yds to the LIB 44Similar
Q1 9:41
3RD & 3
OWN 44
0
46.1%
pass incomplete to CJ DanielsSimilar
Q1 8:43
4TH & 3
OWN 44
+4
46.4%
Max Morgan punt for 35 yds , Ron Cook Jr. returns for 4 yds to the BUFF 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:4746% → 46%
Q1 8:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
46.3%
Cole Harrity run for 5 yds to the BUFF 30Similar
Q1 8:43
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+3
46.4%
CJ Ogbonna run for 3 yds to the BUFF 33Similar
Q1 8:43
3RD & 2
OWN 33
0
46.4%
Similar
Q1 6:56
4TH & 2
OWN 33
+34
46.2%
Anthony Venneri punt for 39 yds Buffalo Penalty, illegal formation (-5 Yards) to the LIB 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 5TD
3 plays · 67 yds · 1:1354% → 57%
Q1 6:56
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+9
46.4%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to CJ Daniels for 9 yds to the LIB 42Similar
Q1 6:56
2ND & 1
OWN 42
+2
46.0%
Vaughn Blue run for 2 yds to the LIB 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:43
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+56
42.7%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Treon Sibley for 56 yds for a TD (Nick Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 6MISSED FG
10 plays · 53 yds · 3:3744% → 42%
Q1 5:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
43.6%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Boobie Curry for 7 yds to the BUFF 32Similar
Q1 5:43
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+2
43.9%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 2 yds to the BUFF 34Similar
Q1 5:43
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+3
43.6%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 3 yds to the BUFF 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:43
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+18
43.8%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Boobie Curry for 18 yds to the LIB 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:43
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+16
44.5%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Nik McMillan for 16 yds to the LIB 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:43
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+5
44.9%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 5 yds to the LIB 24Similar
Q1 5:43
2ND & 5
OPP 24
+2
44.9%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 2 yds to the LIB 22Similar
Q1 5:43
3RD & 3
OPP 22
0
44.4%
Cole Snyder pass incomplete to Marlyn Johnson, broken up by Brylan GreenSimilar
Q1 2:06
4TH & 3
OPP 22
+40
41.5%
Alex McNulty 40 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 7DOWNS
7 plays · 52 yds · 2:1258% → 59%
Q1 2:06
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
42.0%
pass incomplete to Bentley HanshawSimilar
Q1 2:06
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+2
42.1%
Billy Lucas run for 2 yds to the LIB 24Similar
Q1 2:06
3RD & 8
OWN 24
+43
42.3%
Kaidon Salter run for 43 yds to the BUFF 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:06
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
41.0%
Kaidon Salter pass incomplete to Elijah Smoot, broken up by Demetrius HarrisSimilar
Q1 2:06
2ND & 10
OPP 33
0
41.1%
pass incomplete to Bentley HanshawSimilar
Q1 2:06
3RD & 10
OPP 33
+8
41.4%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Noah Frith for 8 yds to the BUFF 25Similar
Q2 14:54
4TH & 2
OPP 25
-1
41.2%
Vaughn Blue run for a loss of 1 yard to the BUFF 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · -5 yds · 1:0741% → 39%
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-5
40.6%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Mike Washington for a loss of 5 yards to the BUFF 21Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 15
OWN 21
0
40.3%
pass incomplete to Mike WashingtonSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 15
OWN 21
0
39.7%
pass incomplete to Nik McMillanSimilar
Q2 13:53
4TH & 15
OWN 21
+64
38.7%
Anthony Venneri punt for 64 yds Liberty Penalty, roughing kicker (Aaron Bedgood) to the LIB 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 9TD
7 plays · 85 yds · 2:5059% → 72%
Q2 13:53
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+11
41.2%
Vaughn Blue run for 11 yds to the LIB 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:37
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
40.9%
Billy Lucas run for 5 yds to the LIB 31Similar
Q2 13:37
2ND & 5
OWN 31
+6
40.4%
Billy Lucas run for 6 yds to the LIB 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:37
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
40.4%
Kaidon Salter run for 2 yds to the LIB 39Similar
Q2 13:37
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+4
40.1%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Quinton Cooley for 4 yds to the LIB 43Similar
Q2 13:37
3RD & 4
OWN 43
+15
40.3%
Kaidon Salter pass incomplete to Treon Sibley for a 1ST down Buffalo Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Amonte Strothers) to the BUFF 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:03
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+42
27.6%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Elijah Smoot for 42 yds for a TD (Nick Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 10INT
3 plays · -1 yds · 0:4031% → 31%
Q2 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-1
31.1%
Ron Cook Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the BUFF 21Similar
Q2 10:20
2ND & 11
OWN 21
0
30.6%
Cole Snyder pass incomplete, broken up by Bryce DixonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 11TD
4 plays · 27 yds · 1:4773% → 82%
Q2 10:20
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
26.9%
Similar
Q2 10:20
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+24
27.0%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Treon Sibley for 24 yds to the BUFF 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
26.8%
Kaidon Salter run for 2 yds to the BUFF 1Similar
Q2 8:33
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
18.2%
Kaidon Salter run for 1 yd for a TD (Nick Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 12TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:5523% → 30%
Q2 8:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
22.9%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Cole Harrity for 3 yds to the BUFF 28Similar
Q2 8:33
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
23.0%
pass incomplete to Cole HarritySimilar
Q2 8:33
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+20
22.8%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Darrell Harding Jr. for 20 yds to the BUFF 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:33
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+15
24.4%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Zion Carter for 15 yds to the LIB 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:33
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+25
24.7%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Ron Cook Jr. for 25 yds to the LIB 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:33
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+4
25.2%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 4 yds to the LIB 8Similar
Q2 6:11
2ND & 6
OPP 8
+1
24.5%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Jake Orlando for 1 yd to the LIB 7Similar
Q2 5:38
3RD & 5
OPP 7
+7
30.4%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Darrell Harding Jr. for 7 yds for a TD (Alex McNulty KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 13PUNT
11 plays · 24 yds · 3:5775% → 79%
Q2 5:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
25.1%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to CJ Daniels for 15 yds to the LIB 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:38
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-10
24.3%
Liberty Penalty, Offensive holding (X'Zauvea Gadlin) to the LIB 30Similar
Q2 5:38
1ST & 20
OWN 30
+6
25.2%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Noah Frith for 6 yds to the LIB 36Similar
Q2 5:38
2ND & 14
OWN 36
+4
25.1%
Quinton Cooley run for 4 yds to the LIB 40Similar
Q2 5:38
3RD & 10
OWN 40
-10
24.8%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Noah Frith Liberty Penalty, Offensive holding (Quinton Cooley) to the LIB 30Similar
Q2 5:38
3RD & 20
OWN 30
+21
25.8%
Quinton Cooley run for 21 yds to the BUFF 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:38
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+1
24.0%
Quinton Cooley run for 1 yd to the BUFF 48Similar
Q2 5:38
2ND & 9
OPP 48
0
24.1%
pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:38
3RD & 9
OPP 48
-3
24.3%
Kaidon Salter sacked for a loss of 3 yards to the LIB 49Similar
Q2 1:41
4TH & 12
OWN 49
0
20.6%
Max Morgan punt for 40 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 14TD
9 plays · 89 yds · 1:1324% → 36%
Q2 1:41
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+15
24.4%
Cole Snyder pass incomplete to Boobie Curry for a 1ST down Liberty Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Kobe Singleton) to the BUFF 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:41
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+9
24.9%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Jake Orlando for 9 yds to the BUFF 35Similar
Q2 1:41
2ND & 1
OWN 35
-1
25.7%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Mike Washington for a loss of 1 yard to the BUFF 34Similar
Q2 1:11
3RD & 2
OWN 34
+17
25.3%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Nik McMillan for 17 yds to the LIB 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:11
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
26.6%
pass incomplete to Boobie CurrySimilar
Q2 1:11
2ND & 10
OPP 49
0
26.3%
Cole Snyder pass incomplete to Nik McMillan, broken up by Preston HodgeSimilar
Q2 1:11
3RD & 10
OPP 49
+16
25.9%
Cole Snyder run for 16 yds to the LIB 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:11
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
27.5%
pass incomplete to Boobie CurrySimilar
Q2 0:28
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+33
36.1%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Nik McMillan for 33 yds for a TD (Alex McNulty KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 16INT
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:2332% → 30%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
32.3%
Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 15
-1
32.2%
Mike Washington run for a loss of 1 yard to the BUFF 14Similar
Q3 13:37
3RD & 11
OWN 14
0
30.3%
Cole Snyder pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 17FG
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:2470% → 75%
Q3 13:37
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+1
30.4%
Kaidon Salter run for 1 yd to the BUFF 18Similar
Q3 13:37
2ND & 9
OPP 18
0
30.4%
Similar
Q3 13:37
3RD & 9
OPP 18
0
31.2%
Kaidon Salter pass incomplete to Elijah Smoot, broken up by Caleb OffordSimilar
Q3 12:13
4TH & 9
OPP 18
+35
25.2%
Nick Brown 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 18DOWNS
7 plays · 17 yds · 2:3328% → 27%
Q3 12:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
28.4%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Mike Washington for 8 yds to the BUFF 33Similar
Q3 12:13
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+2
29.3%
Mike Washington run for 2 yds to the BUFF 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:13
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
28.7%
Cole Snyder pass incomplete to Marlyn Johnson, broken up by TJ BushSimilar
Q3 12:13
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+4
28.6%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Cole Harrity for 4 yds to the BUFF 39Similar
Q3 12:13
3RD & 6
OWN 39
+3
28.5%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Ron Cook Jr. for 3 yds to the BUFF 42Similar
Q3 9:40
4TH & 3
OWN 42
0
27.1%
Cole Snyder pass incomplete, broken up by Jay HardySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 19TD
3 plays · 42 yds · 1:0079% → 92%
Q3 9:40
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-5
21.3%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Bentley Hanshaw Liberty Penalty, inelgible downfield on pass (-5 Yards) to the BUFF 47Similar
Q3 9:40
1ST & 15
OPP 47
+14
21.5%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Elijah Smoot for 14 yds to the BUFF 33Similar
Q3 8:40
2ND & 1
OPP 33
+33
7.9%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Elijah Smoot for 33 yds for a TD Buffalo Penalty, face mask (0 yards) (Charles McCartherens) to the BUFF 0 (Nick Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 20TD
13 plays · 77 yds · 4:1813% → 26%
Q3 8:38
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+8
13.1%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Zion Carter for 8 yds to the BUFF 31Similar
Q3 8:38
2ND & 2
OWN 31
+9
13.6%
Mike Washington run for 9 yds to the BUFF 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:38
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
14.0%
pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:38
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+22
13.5%
Mike Washington run for 7 yds to the LIB 47 for a 1ST down Liberty Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Amarian Williams) to the LIB 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:38
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+10
14.6%
Mike Washington run for 10 yds to the LIB 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:38
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+3
15.3%
Cole Snyder run for 3 yds to the LIB 25Similar
Q3 8:38
2ND & 7
OPP 25
+2
15.3%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 2 yds to the LIB 23Similar
Q3 8:38
3RD & 5
OPP 23
+3
14.9%
Cole Snyder run for 3 yds to the LIB 20Similar
Q3 8:38
4TH & 2
OPP 20
+11
14.9%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Darrell Harding Jr. for 11 yds to the LIB 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+7
15.3%
Cole Snyder pass incomplete to Marlyn Johnson for a 1ST down Liberty Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Amarian Williams) to the LIB 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
26.4%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Ron Cook Jr. for 2 yds for a TD (Alex McNulty KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 21TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 0:5583% → 95%
Q3 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
16.8%
pass incomplete to CJ DanielsSimilar
Q3 4:20
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
16.9%
Similar
Q3 3:25
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+75
5.5%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to CJ Daniels for 75 yds for a TD (Nick Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 22DOWNS
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:577% → 6%
Q3 3:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
6.6%
Cole Snyder run for 3 yds to the BUFF 28Similar
Q3 3:25
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-2
6.8%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Mike Washington for a loss of 2 yards to the BUFF 26Similar
Q3 3:25
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+5
6.5%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Boobie Curry for 5 yds to the BUFF 31Similar
Q3 1:28
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
5.8%
Cole Snyder pass incomplete to Boobie Curry, broken up by Tyren DupreeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 23TD
5 plays · 31 yds · 1:3197% → 99%
Q3 1:28
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-5
3.4%
Jordan White fumbled, recovered by BUFF Shaun Dolac Liberty Penalty, personal foul (Jordan White) to the BUFF 36Similar
Q3 1:28
1ST & 15
OPP 36
+15
3.5%
Kaidon Salter pass incomplete to Kylen Austin for a 1ST down Buffalo Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Marcus Fuqua) to the BUFF 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:28
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+11
3.3%
Quinton Cooley run for 11 yds to the BUFF 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+7
3.3%
Kaidon Salter run for 7 yds to the BUFF 3Similar
Q4 14:57
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
1.4%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Austin Henderson for 3 yds for a TD (Nick Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 24TD
1 play · 49 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 6:24
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+49
0.3%
Aaron Bedgood run for 49 yds for a TD (Nick Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 25TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 4:431% → 1%
Q4 14:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
1.2%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Marlyn Johnson for 7 yds to the BUFF 32Similar
Q4 14:57
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+6
1.2%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Nik McMillan for 6 yds to the BUFF 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:57
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
1.2%
Similar
Q4 14:57
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+21
1.2%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Darrell Harding Jr. for 21 yds to the LIB 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:57
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+16
1.3%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Ron Cook Jr. for 26 yds to the LIB 15 for a 1ST down Buffalo Penalty, illegal block (Marlyn Johnson) to the LIB 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:57
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+10
1.4%
Liberty Penalty, Defensive holding (Bryce Dixon) to the LIB 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:57
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
1.4%
pass incomplete to Micah WoodsSimilar
Q4 14:57
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+5
1.4%
Mike Washington run for 5 yds to the LIB 10Similar
Q4 14:57
3RD & 5
OPP 10
0
1.3%
Similar
Q4 10:58
4TH & 5
OPP 10
+8
0.4%
Cole Snyder pass incomplete to Boobie Curry for a 1ST down Liberty Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Kobe Singleton) to the LIB 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-1
0.5%
Mike Washington run for a loss of 1 yard to the LIB 3Similar
Q4 10:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
0.5%
Marlyn Johnson 3 Yd pass from Cole Snyder (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)Similar
Q4 10:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
0.6%
Cole Snyder pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 26PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 2:13100% → 100%
Q4 10:09
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-5
0.5%
Liberty Penalty, substitution infraction (Chike Nwankwo) to the LIB 11Similar
Q4 10:09
1ST & 15
OWN 11
+12
0.5%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Noah Frith for 12 yds to the LIB 23Similar
Q4 10:09
2ND & 3
OWN 23
0
0.5%
Similar
Q4 10:09
3RD & 3
OWN 23
+1
0.5%
Kaidon Salter run for 1 yd to the LIB 24Similar
Q4 7:56
4TH & 2
OWN 24
0
0.4%
Max Morgan punt for 64 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 27PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:220% → 0%
Q4 7:56
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+7
0.3%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Cameron Ball for 7 yds to the BUFF 19Similar
Q4 7:56
2ND & 3
OWN 19
-7
0.3%
Cole Snyder sacked for a loss of 7 yards to the BUFF 12Similar
Q4 7:56
3RD & 10
OWN 12
0
0.3%
pass incomplete to Marlyn JohnsonSimilar
Q4 6:34
4TH & 10
OWN 12
0
0.2%
Anthony Venneri punt for 37 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 28PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:450% → 0%
Q4 6:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
0.2%
pass incomplete to Mike WashingtonSimilar
Q4 6:24
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
0.2%
Cole Snyder run for 2 yds to the BUFF 27Similar
Q4 6:24
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
0.2%
pass incomplete to Boobie CurrySimilar
Q4 5:39
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
0.2%
Anthony Venneri punt for 33 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 29PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:34100% → 100%
Q4 5:39
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-1
0.2%
Jr. James Jointer run for a loss of 1 yard to the LIB 39Similar
Q4 5:39
2ND & 11
OWN 39
+6
0.2%
Jr. James Jointer run for 6 yds to the LIB 45Similar
Q4 5:39
3RD & 5
OWN 45
0
0.3%
pass incomplete to Markel FortenberrySimilar
Q4 4:05
4TH & 5
OWN 45
0
0.2%
Max Morgan punt for 38 yds , Nik McMillan returns for no gain to the BUFF 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 30PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:560% → 0%
Q4 4:05
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
0.2%
pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:05
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+2
0.2%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Cameron Ball for 2 yds to the BUFF 19Similar
Q4 4:05
3RD & 8
OWN 19
0
0.2%
pass incomplete to Darrell Harding Jr.Similar
Q4 3:09
4TH & 8
OWN 19
+2
0.1%
Anthony Venneri punt for 39 yds , Markel Fortenberry returns for 2 yds to the BUFF 21 Buffalo Penalty, kick catching interference (-15 Yards) to the BUFF 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 31DOWNS
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:47100% → 100%
Q4 3:09
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
0.2%
Similar
Q4 3:09
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+2
0.2%
Jr. James Jointer run for 2 yds to the BUFF 39Similar
Q4 3:09
3RD & 8
OPP 39
0
0.2%
pass incomplete to Victor VennSimilar
Q4 2:22
4TH & 8
OPP 39
0
0.2%
Johnathan Bennett pass incomplete to Markel Fortenberry, broken up by Charles McCartherensSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 32DOWNS
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:330% → 0%
Q4 2:22
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
0.1%
Lamar Sperling run for 5 yds to the BUFF 44Similar
Q4 2:22
2ND & 5
OWN 44
0
0.1%
Cole Snyder pass incomplete to Cameron Ball, broken up by Nick DaysSimilar
Q4 2:22
3RD & 5
OWN 44
0
0.1%
pass incomplete to Micah WoodsSimilar
Q4 1:49
4TH & 5
OWN 44
0
0.1%
Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 33Uncategorized
2 plays · 39 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 1:49
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+7
0.1%
Jr. James Jointer run for 7 yds to the BUFF 37Similar
Q4 1:49
2ND & 3
OPP 37
+34
0.1%
Jr. James Jointer run for 34 yds to the BUFF 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 8:40
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Elijah Smoot for 33 yds for a TD Buffalo Penalty, face mask (0 yards) (Charles McCartherens) to the BUFF 0 (Nick Brown KICK)
-13.7
TD · Q2 11:03
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Elijah Smoot for 42 yds for a TD (Nick Brown KICK)
-12.7
TD · Q3 3:25
Kaidon Salter pass complete to CJ Daniels for 75 yds for a TD (Nick Brown KICK)
-11.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com