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SAM

Samford 13 at Auburn 45

AUB
2023 · Week 3 · Sep 16, 2023 · Jordan-Hare Stadium
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Win probability · AUB
modelAUB aheadSAM aheadconfidence bandkey playAUB scoreSAM score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 1:12 · Damonta Witherspoon run for 2 yds to the AUB 42
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+48.5+24.30−24.3−48.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 155Pregame prior+1.9Home team on offense+35.4Score differential+30.0Garbage-time factor+12.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.8Blowout margin+17.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 9:31: Payton Thorne pass complete to Shane Hooks for 32 yds for a TD (Alex McPherson KICK) — AUB win probability +1.4 pts (now 96%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 8:30: Robby Ashford run for 1 yd for a TD (Alex McPherson KICK) — AUB win probability +1.7 pts (now 99%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 6:35: Michael Hiers pass complete to Chandler Smith for 36 yds for a TD (Wilson Beaverstock KICK) — SAM win probability +1.7 pts (now 3%) (top driver: SAM has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 4:29: Jarquez Hunter run for 1 yd for a TD (Alex McPherson KICK) — AUB win probability +1.4 pts (now 99%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 0:57: Michael Hiers run for 3 yds for a TD (Wilson Beaverstock PAT MISSED) — SAM win probability +1.5 pts (now 3%) (top driver: SAM has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
AUB made the numbers' call on 3 of 5SAM made the numbers' call on 9 of 9
  1. Q1 12:37SAM 4th & 9 at midfield, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.9%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:30SAM 4th & 1 at SAM 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.6%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 1:57SAM 4th & 7 at SAM 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.8%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.8%
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:30AUB 4th & 1 at SAM 19, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 95.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    95.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    95.5%−0.1
    77% to make
    Punt
    95.1%−0.5
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:30SAM 4th & 9 at SAM 36, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.2%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.4%
    average punt
  6. Q2 2:40SAM 4th & 8 at SAM 27, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.5%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.6%
    average punt
  7. Q2 2:40AUB 4th & 1 at SAM 46, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 96.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    96.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    95.9%−0.5
    23% to make
    Punt
    96.1%−0.4
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:41AUB 4th & 4 at SAM 4, up 14
    Close callKicked a field goal · 96.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.4%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    96.3%−<0.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    95.2%−1.2
    average punt
  9. Q3 14:55AUB 4th & 1 at AUB 45, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 96.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    97.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    96.6%−0.5
    average punt
  10. Q3 1:54SAM 4th & 6 at SAM 43, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.9%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.0%
    average punt
  11. Q4 13:38AUB 4th & 2 at midfield, up 18
    Close callPunted · 98.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.5%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.1%−0.3
    average punt
  12. Q4 12:20SAM 4th & 16 at SAM 3, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.2%−0.9
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.1%
    average punt
  13. Q4 8:06SAM 4th & 10 at SAM 49, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−<0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
  14. Q4 1:12SAM 4th & 3 at AUB 44, down 32
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    0.0%−<0.1
    27% to make
    Punt
    0.0%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
AUB made the numbers' call on 5 of 6SAM made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q2 9:31AUB Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 3:04AUB Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 8:30AUB Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 6:35SAM Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    2.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    2.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 4:29AUB Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 0:57SAM Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    2.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    2.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 9:44AUB Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 5:32AUB Touchdown, up 31 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SAMDrive 1PUNT
9 plays · 25 yds · 2:232% → 2%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
98.2%
Michael Hiers pass complete to D.J. Rias for 8 yds to the SAM 33Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+4
98.2%
Jay Stanton run for 4 yds to the SAM 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
98.2%
Michael Hiers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 37
0
98.2%
Michael Hiers pass complete to Jay Stanton for no gain to the SAM 37Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 37
+12
98.2%
Michael Hiers pass complete to Ty King for 12 yds to the SAM 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
98.2%
Michael Hiers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+1
98.2%
Michael Hiers pass complete to Tate Taylor for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 9
50
0
98.2%
Michael Hiers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:37
4TH & 9
50
0
98.0%
Will Thorley punt for 20 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 2INT
16 plays · 64 yds · 5:0798% → 97%
Q1 12:37
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+10
98.0%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Shane Hooks for 10 yds to the AUB 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:37
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
98.0%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Omari Kelly for 5 yds to the AUB 45Similar
Q1 12:37
2ND & 5
OWN 45
-1
98.0%
Payton Thorne sacked by Joseph Mera for a loss of 1 yard to the AUB 44Similar
Q1 12:37
3RD & 6
OWN 44
+7
98.0%
Payton Thorne run for 7 yds to the SAM 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:37
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
98.0%
Payton Thorne pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:37
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+8
98.0%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jay Fair for 8 yds to the SAM 41Similar
Q1 12:37
3RD & 2
OPP 41
+6
98.0%
Jarquez Hunter run for 6 yds to the SAM 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:37
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+5
98.0%
Jarquez Hunter run for 5 yds to the SAM 30Similar
Q1 12:37
2ND & 5
OPP 30
+4
98.0%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Rivaldo Fairweather for 4 yds to the SAM 26Similar
Q1 12:37
3RD & 1
OPP 26
+6
98.0%
Jarquez Hunter run for 6 yds to the SAM 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:37
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+8
98.0%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jeremiah Cobb for 8 yds to the SAM 12Similar
Q1 12:37
2ND & 2
OPP 12
+11
98.0%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jeremiah Cobb for 11 yds to the SAM 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
98.0%
Payton Thorne pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:37
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
98.0%
Payton Thorne pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:37
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
-5
98.0%
Auburn Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the SAM 6Similar
Q1 7:30
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
97.3%
Payton Thorne pass intercepted, touchback.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SAMDrive 3PUNT
11 plays · 29 yds · 5:333% → 4%
Q1 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
97.2%
Michael Hiers pass complete to D.J. Rias for 4 yds to the SAM 24Similar
Q1 7:30
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+12
97.2%
Mychael Hamilton run for 12 yds to the SAM 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
97.2%
Mychael Hamilton run for 2 yds to the SAM 38Similar
Q1 7:30
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+1
97.2%
Mychael Hamilton run for 1 yd to the SAM 39Similar
Q1 7:30
3RD & 7
OWN 39
+6
97.2%
Michael Hiers pass complete to Brendan Jenkins for 6 yds to the SAM 45Similar
Q1 7:30
4TH & 1
OWN 45
+1
97.2%
Mychael Hamilton run for 1 yd to the SAM 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
97.1%
Damonta Witherspoon run for 1 yd to the SAM 47Similar
Q1 7:30
2ND & 9
OWN 47
0
97.1%
Michael Hiers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:30
3RD & 9
OWN 47
+7
97.2%
Michael Hiers pass complete to Camden Simons for 7 yds to the AUB 46Similar
Q1 7:30
4TH & 2
OPP 46
-5
97.2%
Samford Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the SAM 49Similar
Q1 1:57
4TH & 7
OWN 49
0
96.1%
Will Thorley punt for 26 yds, downed at the AUB 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 4DOWNS
8 plays · 55 yds · 3:2796% → 96%
Q1 1:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
96.2%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jay Fair for 5 yds to the AUB 30Similar
Q1 1:57
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
96.2%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Rivaldo Fairweather for no gain to the AUB 30Similar
Q1 1:57
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+6
96.1%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Rivaldo Fairweather for 6 yds to the AUB 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:57
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+36
96.3%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jay Fair for 36 yds to the SAM 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+2
96.1%
Damari Alston run for 2 yds to the SAM 26Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 26
+1
96.1%
Brian Battie run for 1 yd to the SAM 25Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 25
+6
96.0%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Damari Alston for 6 yds to the SAM 19Similar
Q2 13:30
4TH & 1
OPP 19
-1
95.5%
Damari Alston run for a loss of 1 yard to the SAM 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SAMDrive 5PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 3:005% → 6%
Q2 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
95.1%
Michael Hiers pass complete to Chandler Smith for 5 yds to the SAM 25Similar
Q2 13:30
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+4
95.1%
Michael Hiers pass complete to D.J. Rias for 4 yds to the SAM 29Similar
Q2 13:30
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+6
95.1%
Jay Stanton run for 6 yds to the SAM 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
95.1%
Jay Stanton run for 1 yd to the SAM 36Similar
Q2 13:30
2ND & 9
OWN 36
0
95.1%
Michael Hiers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:30
3RD & 9
OWN 36
0
95.2%
Michael Hiers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:30
4TH & 9
OWN 36
0
94.4%
Will Thorley punt for 40 yds , returns for no gain to the AUB 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 6TD
3 plays · 78 yds · 0:5995% → 96%
Q2 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+6
94.5%
Jarquez Hunter run for 6 yds to the AUB 28Similar
Q2 10:30
2ND & 4
OWN 28
+40
94.6%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Omari Kelly for 40 yds to the SAM 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:31
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+32
96.0%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Shane Hooks for 32 yds for a TD (Alex McPherson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SAMDrive 7INT
2 plays · 1 yds · 0:514% → 5%
Q2 9:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
95.6%
Mychael Hamilton run for 1 yd to the SAM 26Similar
Q2 8:40
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
95.4%
Michael Hiers pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 8INT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:3496% → 96%
Q2 8:40
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
95.8%
Brian Battie run for 3 yds to the SAM 42Similar
Q2 8:40
2ND & 7
OPP 42
-10
95.8%
BATTIE, Brian rush up the middle for a gain of 12 yards to the SAM30 (MARTIN, Noah). PENALTY AU Holding on WADE, Dillon enforced 10 yards from the SAM42 to the AU48 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 8:40
2ND & 17
OWN 48
+10
95.6%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jyaire Shorter for 10 yds to the SAM 42Similar
Q2 7:06
3RD & 7
OPP 42
0
95.5%
Payton Thorne pass intercepted, touchback.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SAMDrive 9INT
2 plays · 4 yds · 0:575% → 5%
Q2 7:06
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
95.2%
Jay Stanton run for 4 yds to the SAM 24Similar
Q2 6:09
2ND & 6
OWN 24
0
94.9%
Michael Hiers pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 10TD
7 plays · 22 yds · 3:0596% → 97%
Q2 6:09
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+9
95.6%
Jarquez Hunter run for 9 yds to the SAM 13Similar
Q2 6:09
2ND & 1
OPP 13
-10
95.6%
THORNE, Payton pass up the middle incomplete intended for HOOKS, Shane thrown to the SAM0. PENALTY AU Holding on WADE, Dillon enforced 10 yards from the SAM13 to the SAM23 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 6:09
2ND & 11
OPP 23
+5
95.6%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Shane Hooks for 5 yds to the SAM 18Similar
Q2 6:09
3RD & 6
OPP 18
+14
95.4%
Payton Thorne run for 14 yds to the SAM 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
95.6%
Jarquez Hunter run for 1 yd to the SAM 3Similar
Q2 6:09
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
-2
95.6%
Jarquez Hunter run for a loss of 2 yards to the SAM 5Similar
Q2 3:04
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
96.5%
Payton Thorne run for 5 yds for a TD (Alex McPherson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SAMDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 2 yds · 0:174% → 4%
Q2 2:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
95.8%
Michael Hiers pass complete to Ty King for 4 yds to the SAM 29Similar
Q2 2:53
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-2
95.7%
Michael Hiers pass complete to Mychael Hamilton for a loss of 2 yards to the SAM 27Similar
Q2 2:53
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
95.9%
Michael Hiers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:40
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
96.0%
Will Thorley punt for 33 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 12FG
9 plays · 51 yds · 1:5997% → 97%
Q2 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+6
96.7%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jay Fair for 6 yds to the SAM 49Similar
Q2 2:40
2ND & 4
OPP 49
+2
96.6%
Damari Alston run for 2 yds to the SAM 47Similar
Q2 2:40
3RD & 2
OPP 47
+1
96.4%
Damari Alston run for 1 yd to the SAM 46Similar
Q2 2:40
4TH & 1
OPP 46
+2
96.2%
Payton Thorne run for 2 yds to the SAM 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:40
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+41
96.7%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Rivaldo Fairweather for 41 yds to the SAM 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-1
96.5%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jeremiah Cobb for a loss of 1 yard to the SAM 4Similar
Q2 2:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
96.5%
Payton Thorne pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:40
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
96.3%
Payton Thorne pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:41
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+22
97.2%
Alex McPherson 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SAMDrive 13END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
96.7%
Jay Stanton run for a loss of 1 yard to the SAM 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 14TD
13 plays · 76 yds · 6:2597% → 99%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+12
97.0%
Payton Thorne run for 12 yds to the AUB 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
97.1%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Rivaldo Fairweather for 6 yds to the AUB 42Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 4
OWN 42
+3
97.2%
Jarquez Hunter run for 3 yds to the AUB 45Similar
Q3 14:55
3RD & 1
OWN 45
0
97.0%
Jarquez Hunter run for no gain to the AUB 45Similar
Q3 14:55
4TH & 1
OWN 45
+2
96.9%
Jarquez Hunter run for 2 yds to the AUB 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
97.2%
Damari Alston run for 5 yds to the SAM 48Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 5
OPP 48
+20
97.2%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jay Fair for 20 yds to the SAM 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+9
97.2%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Damari Alston for 9 yds to the SAM 19Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 1
OPP 19
+5
97.2%
Damari Alston run for 5 yds to the SAM 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+3
97.2%
Damari Alston run for 3 yds to the SAM 11Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 7
OPP 11
+8
97.2%
Payton Thorne run for 8 yds to the SAM 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
97.2%
Jeremiah Cobb run for 2 yds to the SAM 1Similar
Q3 8:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
98.8%
Robby Ashford run for 1 yd for a TD (Alex McPherson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SAMDrive 15TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:551% → 3%
Q3 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
98.7%
Jay Stanton run for no gain to the SAM 25Similar
Q3 8:30
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+39
98.7%
Michael Hiers pass complete to Chandler Smith for 39 yds to the AUB 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-3
98.7%
Michael Hiers pass complete to Ty King for a loss of 3 yards to the AUB 39Similar
Q3 8:30
2ND & 13
OPP 39
+3
98.7%
Michael Hiers pass complete to Jay Stanton for 3 yds to the AUB 36Similar
Q3 6:35
3RD & 10
OPP 36
+36
96.9%
Michael Hiers pass complete to Chandler Smith for 36 yds for a TD (Wilson Beaverstock KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 16TD
5 plays · 58 yds · 1:5898% → 99%
Q3 6:27
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
97.7%
Brian Battie run for 5 yds to the AUB 47Similar
Q3 6:27
2ND & 5
OWN 47
+9
97.7%
Brian Battie run for 9 yds to the SAM 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:27
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
97.7%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Tyler Fromm for 5 yds to the SAM 39Similar
Q3 4:44
2ND & 5
OPP 39
+38
97.7%
Payton Thorne run for 38 yds to the SAM 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.1%
Jarquez Hunter run for 1 yd for a TD (Alex McPherson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SAMDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · 17 yds · 2:311% → 1%
Q3 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-2
98.9%
Iaan Cousin run for a loss of 2 yards to the SAM 24Similar
Q3 4:25
2ND & 12
OWN 24
+15
98.9%
HIERS, Michael pass deep to the right incomplete intended for SMITH, Chandler thrown to the SAM45; QB hurried by FAULK, Keldric. PENALTY AU Pass Interference on JAMES, DJ enforced 15 yards to the SAM39 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
98.9%
Mychael Hamilton run for 2 yds to the SAM 41Similar
Q3 4:25
2ND & 8
OWN 41
+6
98.9%
Michael Hiers pass complete to Mychael Hamilton for 6 yds to the SAM 47Similar
Q3 4:25
3RD & 2
OWN 47
-4
98.9%
Mychael Hamilton run for a loss of 4 yards to the SAM 43Similar
Q3 1:54
4TH & 6
OWN 43
0
99.1%
Will Thorley punt for 37 yds , returns for no gain to the AUB 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SAMDrive 18TD
3 plays · 9 yds · 0:571% → 3%
Q3 1:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+3
98.8%
Mychael Hamilton run for 3 yds to the AUB 6Similar
Q3 1:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
98.8%
Michael Hiers run for 3 yds to the AUB 3Similar
Q3 0:57
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
97.2%
Michael Hiers run for 3 yds for a TD (Wilson Beaverstock PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · 20 yds · 2:1198% → 98%
Q3 0:49
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+8
98.0%
Damari Alston run for 8 yds to the AUB 38Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 2
OWN 38
+4
98.3%
Payton Thorne run for 4 yds to the AUB 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
98.3%
Payton Thorne pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+3
98.3%
Brian Battie run for 3 yds to the AUB 45Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 45
+5
98.3%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jay Fair for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 13:38
4TH & 2
50
0
98.3%
Oscar Chapman punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Chandler Smith at the SAM 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SAMDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · -6 yds · 1:182% → 2%
Q4 13:38
1ST & 10
OWN 9
-8
97.9%
Michael Hiers sacked by Lawrence Johnson for a loss of 8 yards to the SAM 1Similar
Q4 13:38
2ND & 18
OWN 1
+2
97.9%
Jay Stanton run for 2 yds to the SAM 3Similar
Q4 13:38
3RD & 16
OWN 3
0
98.0%
Michael Hiers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:20
4TH & 16
OWN 3
0
98.0%
Will Thorley punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Jaylin Simpson at the SAM 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 21TD
6 plays · 33 yds · 2:3699% → 100%
Q4 12:20
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-2
98.5%
Jeremiah Cobb run for a loss of 2 yards to the SAM 35Similar
Q4 12:20
2ND & 12
OPP 35
+1
98.5%
Jeremiah Cobb run for 1 yd to the SAM 34Similar
Q4 12:20
3RD & 11
OPP 34
-5
98.5%
Auburn Penalty, False Start (Gunner Britton) to the SAM 39Similar
Q4 12:20
3RD & 16
OPP 39
+16
98.4%
Payton Thorne run for 16 yds to the SAM 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:20
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+5
98.6%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Koy Moore for 5 yds to the SAM 18Similar
Q4 9:44
2ND & 5
OPP 18
+18
99.7%
Payton Thorne run for 18 yds for a TD (Alex McPherson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SAMDrive 22PUNT
7 plays · 24 yds · 1:380% → 0%
Q4 9:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
99.7%
Michael Hiers run for 13 yds to the SAM 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:44
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+9
99.7%
Michael Hiers pass complete to Ty King for 9 yds to the SAM 47Similar
Q4 9:44
2ND & 1
OWN 47
+2
99.7%
Michael Hiers pass complete to Ty King for 2 yds to the SAM 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:44
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
99.7%
Michael Hiers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:44
2ND & 10
OWN 49
0
99.7%
Michael Hiers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:44
3RD & 10
OWN 49
0
99.7%
Michael Hiers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:06
4TH & 10
OWN 49
0
99.7%
Will Thorley punt for 27 yds, downed at the AUB 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 23TD
6 plays · 76 yds · 2:34100% → 100%
Q4 8:06
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+2
99.7%
Jeremiah Cobb run for 2 yds to the AUB 26Similar
Q4 8:06
2ND & 8
OWN 26
+13
99.7%
Robby Ashford pass complete to Jay Fair for 13 yds to the AUB 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:06
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
99.8%
Robby Ashford pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:06
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+13
99.8%
Robby Ashford pass complete to Koy Moore for 13 yds to the SAM 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:06
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+16
99.8%
Robby Ashford run for 16 yds to the SAM 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:32
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+32
99.9%
Robby Ashford pass complete to Micah Riley for 32 yds for a TD (Marshall Meyers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SAMDrive 24DOWNS
9 plays · 33 yds · 4:200% → 0%
Q4 5:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
99.9%
Quincy Crittendon run for 5 yds to the SAM 30Similar
Q4 5:32
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+3
99.9%
Quincy Crittendon pass complete to Thomas D'Armond for 3 yds to the SAM 33Similar
Q4 5:32
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+3
99.9%
Damonta Witherspoon run for 3 yds to the SAM 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:32
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-9
99.9%
Quincy Crittendon sacked by Cam Riley for a loss of 9 yards to the SAM 27Similar
Q4 5:32
2ND & 19
OWN 27
+22
99.9%
Damonta Witherspoon run for 22 yds to the SAM 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:32
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+2
99.9%
Damonta Witherspoon run for 2 yds to the AUB 49Similar
Q4 5:32
2ND & 8
OPP 49
0
99.9%
Quincy Crittendon pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:32
3RD & 8
OPP 49
+5
99.9%
Quincy Crittendon run for 5 yds to the AUB 44Similar
Q4 1:12
4TH & 3
OPP 44
+2
99.9%
Damonta Witherspoon run for 2 yds to the AUB 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 25END OF GAME
2 plays · -4 yds · 1:12100% → 100%
Q4 1:12
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
100.0%
R. Ashford takes a kneeSimilar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 12
OWN 40
0
100.0%
R. Ashford takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 8:30
Robby Ashford run for 1 yd for a TD (Alex McPherson KICK)
+1.7
TD · Q3 6:35
Michael Hiers pass complete to Chandler Smith for 36 yds for a TD (Wilson Beaverstock KICK)
-1.7
TD · Q3 0:57
Michael Hiers run for 3 yds for a TD (Wilson Beaverstock PAT MISSED)
-1.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com