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BYU

BYU 38 at Arkansas 31

ARK
2023 · Week 3 · Sep 16, 2023 · Razorback Stadium
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Win probability · ARK
modelARK aheadBYU aheadconfidence bandkey playARK scoreBYU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 10:37 · Ryan Rehkow punt for 49 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+39.5+19.80−19.8−39.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 13Pregame prior+25.6Home team on offense+1.3Garbage-time factor+0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.5Score differential+0.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 2:24: LJ Martin run for 45 yds for a TD (Will Ferrin KICK) — BYU win probability +6.8 pts (now 28%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 1:43: KJ Jefferson pass complete to Luke Hasz for 19 yds for a TD (Cam Little KICK) — ARK win probability +9.9 pts (now 75%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 11:41: AJ Green run for 7 yds for a TD (Cam Little KICK) — ARK win probability +8.8 pts (now 86%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 1:52: Kedon Slovis pass complete to Parker Kingston for 20 yds for a TD (Will Ferrin KICK) — BYU win probability +29.6 pts (now 47%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 8:00: Kedon Slovis pass complete to Chase Roberts for 7 yds for a TD (Will Ferrin KICK) — BYU win probability +31.4 pts (now 81%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ARK made the numbers' call on 6 of 9BYU made the numbers' call on 9 of 9
  1. Q1 11:29BYU 4th & 11 at BYU 34, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.4%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:37BYU 4th & 9 at BYU 48, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.3%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:20ARK 4th & 7 at ARK 6, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.1%−0.3
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.4%
    average punt
  4. Q1 7:09ARK 4th & 4 at ARK 31, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.8%−0.2
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.0%
    average punt
  5. Q1 6:49BYU 4th & 10 at BYU 41, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.6%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.8%
    average punt
  6. Q1 1:14ARK 4th & 10 at ARK 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.3%−0.5
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.8%
    average punt
  7. Q2 10:56ARK 4th & 3 at ARK 35, down 7
    Close callPunted · 60.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.6%−0.4
    average punt
  8. Q2 7:15BYU 4th & 11 at BYU 25, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.9%−1.7
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.6%
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:00ARK 4th & 4 at BYU 8, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 66.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.1%
    42% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    66.5%−0.6
    90% to make
    Punt
    60.1%−7.0
    average punt
  10. Q3 13:38BYU 4th & 12 at BYU 23, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.2%−2.8
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.0%
    average punt
  11. Q3 10:40BYU 4th & 8 at BYU 32, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.8%−1.6
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.4%
    average punt
  12. Q3 7:14ARK 4th & 1 at midfield, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 82.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    82.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    80.9%−1.9
    average punt
  13. Q3 4:43BYU 4th & 12 at ARK 26, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 16.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.2%−1.7
    23% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    16.9%
    64% to make
    Punt
    10.9%−6.0
    average punt
  14. Q4 12:46ARK 4th & 8 at BYU 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 61.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.8%−0.7
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    61.5%
    54% to make
    Punt
    58.4%−3.0
    average punt
  15. Q4 6:21ARK 4th & 5 at ARK 30, down 7
    Close callPunted · 22.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.4%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.8%−0.6
    average punt
  16. Q4 4:31BYU 4th & 23 at BYU 11, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.4%−6.5
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.9%
    average punt
  17. Q4 1:55BYU 4th & 14 at ARK 32, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 89.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.9%−1.0
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    88.9%
    51% to make
    Punt
    87.6%−1.3
    average punt
  18. Q4 1:55ARK 4th & 18 at BYU 42, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 16.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.0%
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    10.9%−1.1
    30% to make
    Punt
    10.8%−1.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARK made the numbers' call on 4 of 4BYU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 13:21ARK Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 11:29ARK Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 8:28BYU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    27.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    27.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 2:24BYU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    29.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    29.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 12:54BYU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    36.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    36.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 1:43ARK Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 11:41ARK Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 1:52BYU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    36.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    36.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 8:00BYU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.4%−0.5
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ARKDrive 1TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 1:3977% → 78%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
77.4%
KJ Jefferson run for 5 yds to the ARK 30Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+12
77.4%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Andrew Armstrong for 12 yds to the ARK 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
77.4%
AJ Green run for 3 yds to the ARK 45Similar
Q1 13:21
2ND & 7
OWN 45
+55
77.6%
AJ Green run for 55 yds for a TD (Cam Little KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 2PUNT TD
5 plays · 14 yds · 1:4823% → 22%
Q1 13:17
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+15
77.4%
SLOVIS, Kedon pass deep to the right incomplete intended for ROBERTS, Chase broken up by JOHNSON, Lorando at the BYU45. PENALTY ARK Pass Interference on JOHNSON, Lorando enforced 15 yards to the BYU35 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 13:17
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
77.4%
Kedon Slovis pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:17
2ND & 10
OWN 35
-1
77.4%
LJ Martin run for a loss of 1 yard to the BYU 34Similar
Q1 13:17
3RD & 11
OWN 34
0
77.5%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to LJ Martin for no gain to the BYU 34Similar
Q1 11:29
4TH & 11
OWN 34
+88
78.5%
Isaiah Sategna 88 Yd Punt Return (Cam Little Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 0:4422% → 22%
Q1 11:21
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+1
78.3%
LJ Martin run for 1 yd to the BYU 48Similar
Q1 11:21
2ND & 9
OWN 48
0
78.3%
Kedon Slovis pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:21
3RD & 9
OWN 48
0
78.3%
Kedon Slovis pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:37
4TH & 9
OWN 48
0
78.3%
Ryan Rehkow punt for 49 ydsSimilar
Q1 10:37
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+5
78.4%
BYU Penalty, Offsides (5 Yards) to the ARK 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:1778% → 79%
Q1 10:37
1ST & 5
OWN 8
-4
78.3%
Arkansas Penalty, Offensive Holding (-4 Yards) to the ARK 5Similar
Q1 10:37
1ST & 8
OWN 5
+1
78.3%
Rashod Dubinion run for 1 yd to the ARK 6Similar
Q1 10:37
2ND & 7
OWN 6
0
78.2%
KJ Jefferson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:37
3RD & 7
OWN 6
0
78.1%
KJ Jefferson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:20
4TH & 7
OWN 6
0
78.6%
Max Fletcher punt for 54 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 5TD
2 plays · 53 yds · 0:5221% → 23%
Q1 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+16
79.0%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Isaac Rex for 16 yds to the ARK 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:28
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+37
77.0%
Parker Kingston pass complete to Deion Smith for 37 yds for a TD (Will Ferrin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:1978% → 78%
Q1 8:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
78.1%
AJ Green run for 2 yds to the ARK 27Similar
Q1 8:28
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+4
78.1%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Andrew Armstrong for 4 yds to the ARK 31Similar
Q1 8:28
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
78.0%
KJ Jefferson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:09
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
77.6%
Max Fletcher punt for 28 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:2023% → 22%
Q1 7:09
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
77.5%
Kedon Slovis pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:09
2ND & 10
OWN 41
0
77.6%
Kedon Slovis pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:09
3RD & 10
OWN 41
0
77.8%
Kedon Slovis pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:49
4TH & 10
OWN 41
0
78.1%
Ryan Rehkow punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Isaiah Sategna at the ARK 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 8PUNT
8 plays · 9 yds · 4:1580% → 79%
Q1 6:49
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
79.6%
AJ Green run for 2 yds to the ARK 28Similar
Q1 6:49
2ND & 8
OWN 28
+12
79.5%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Tyrone Broden for 12 yds to the ARK 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:49
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+17
79.9%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Andrew Armstrong for 17 yds to the BYU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:49
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
80.1%
Rashod Dubinion run for no gain to the BYU 43Similar
Q1 6:49
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+1
80.1%
Rashod Dubinion run for 1 yd to the BYU 42Similar
Q1 6:49
3RD & 9
OPP 42
-16
79.8%
JEFFERSON, KJ pass up the middle complete for 8 yards to HASZ, Luke caught at the BYU36 and advanced to the BYU34 (TOOLEY, Max;VONGPHACHANH, AJ). PENALTY ARK Pass Interference on HASZ, Luke enforced 16 yards to the ARK42 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 6:49
3RD & 25
OWN 42
-7
79.5%
KJ Jefferson sacked by Max Tooley for a loss of 7 yards to the ARK 35Similar
Q1 2:34
4TH & 32
OWN 35
0
79.0%
Max Fletcher punt for 10 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 9TD
1 play · 45 yds · 0:0028% → 28%
Q1 2:24
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+45
72.2%
LJ Martin run for 45 yds for a TD (Will Ferrin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:1074% → 73%
Q1 2:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
74.4%
Isaac TeSlaa run for no gain to the ARK 25Similar
Q1 2:24
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
74.2%
KJ Jefferson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:24
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
73.8%
KJ Jefferson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:14
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
73.1%
Max Fletcher punt for 49 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 11TD
10 plays · 70 yds · 3:2027% → 36%
Q1 1:14
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+7
72.7%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Isaac Rex for 7 yds to the BYU 37Similar
Q1 1:14
2ND & 3
OWN 37
+5
72.2%
LJ Martin run for 5 yds to the BYU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:14
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
72.1%
Kedon Slovis pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+5
71.9%
LJ Martin run for 5 yds to the BYU 47Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 47
+8
71.5%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Isaac Rex for 8 yds to the ARK 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+14
71.1%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Parker Kingston for 14 yds to the ARK 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+1
70.7%
LJ Martin run for 1 yd to the ARK 30Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 30
+26
70.7%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Isaac Rex for 26 yds to the ARK 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
70.5%
LJ Martin run for 3 yds to the ARK 1Similar
Q2 12:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
63.8%
LJ Martin run for 1 yd for a TD (Will Ferrin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:5366% → 65%
Q2 12:49
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
66.3%
Rashod Dubinion run for 3 yds to the ARK 31Similar
Q2 12:49
2ND & 7
OWN 31
+1
66.3%
Rashod Dubinion run for 1 yd to the ARK 32Similar
Q2 12:49
3RD & 6
OWN 32
+3
66.1%
KJ Jefferson run for 3 yds to the ARK 35Similar
Q2 10:56
4TH & 3
OWN 35
0
64.8%
Max Fletcher punt for 52 yds, fair catch by Hobbs Nyberg at the BYU 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 13PUNT
8 plays · 12 yds · 3:4136% → 39%
Q2 10:56
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+3
64.4%
LJ Martin run for 3 yds to the BYU 16Similar
Q2 10:56
2ND & 7
OWN 16
0
64.5%
Kedon Slovis pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:56
3RD & 7
OWN 16
+10
65.1%
LJ Martin run for 10 yds to the BYU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:56
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-6
63.9%
Kedon Slovis sacked for a loss of 6 yards to the BYU 20Similar
Q2 10:56
2ND & 16
OWN 20
0
64.6%
Deion Smith run for no gain to the BYU 20Similar
Q2 10:56
3RD & 16
OWN 20
+5
65.1%
Deion Smith run for 5 yds to the BYU 25Similar
Q2 7:15
4TH & 11
OWN 25
0
61.3%
Ryan Rehkow punt for 52 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 14TD
11 plays · 70 yds · 5:3261% → 75%
Q2 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
60.9%
KJ Jefferson run for no gain to the ARK 30Similar
Q2 7:15
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+13
60.6%
Dominique Johnson run for 13 yds to the ARK 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
62.2%
KJ Jefferson run for 3 yds to the ARK 46Similar
Q2 7:15
2ND & 7
OWN 46
+8
62.5%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Luke Hasz for 8 yds to the BYU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:15
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+7
63.2%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Andrew Armstrong for 7 yds to the BYU 39Similar
Q2 3:43
2ND & 3
OPP 39
+1
63.4%
Dominique Johnson run for 11 yds to the BYU 28 Arkansas Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the BYU 48Similar
Q2 3:43
2ND & 12
OPP 48
+13
62.0%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Andrew Armstrong for 13 yds to the BYU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:43
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+15
64.5%
Rashod Dubinion run for 15 yds to the BYU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:43
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+1
64.6%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Isaac TeSlaa for 1 yd to the BYU 19Similar
Q2 1:43
2ND & 9
OPP 19
+19
74.5%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Luke Hasz for 19 yds for a TD (Cam Little KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 15FUMBLE
1 play · 5 yds · 0:0034% → 34%
Q2 1:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
66.5%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Chase Roberts for 5 yds Chase Roberts fumbled, recovered by ARK Hudson Clark for a 1ST down Arkansas Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the BYU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 16FG
6 plays · 36 yds · 1:3473% → 76%
Q2 1:34
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+30
73.0%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Luke Hasz for 30 yds to the BYU 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:34
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+3
73.7%
KJ Jefferson run for 3 yds to the BYU 11Similar
Q2 1:34
2ND & 7
OPP 11
+2
73.7%
KJ Jefferson run for 2 yds to the BYU 9Similar
Q2 0:03
3RD & 5
OPP 9
+1
72.4%
KJ Jefferson run for 1 yd to the BYU 8Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 4
OPP 8
+26
76.0%
Cam Little 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · -2 yds · 1:3028% → 24%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
71.9%
LJ Martin run for a loss of 4 yards to the BYU 21Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+2
72.3%
LJ Martin run for 2 yds to the BYU 23Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 12
OWN 23
0
73.1%
Kedon Slovis pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:38
4TH & 12
OWN 23
0
73.9%
Ryan Rehkow punt for 35 ydsSimilar
Q3 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+15
75.7%
JEFFERSON, KJ pass deep to the right incomplete intended for WILSON, Jaedon thrown to the BYU28. PENALTY BYU Pass Interference on HECKARD, Eddie enforced 15 yards to the BYU38 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 18TD
4 plays · 53 yds · 1:4976% → 86%
Q3 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+9
76.2%
Tyrone Broden run for 9 yds to the BYU 29Similar
Q3 13:30
2ND & 1
OPP 29
+3
76.9%
AJ Green run for 3 yds to the BYU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+19
76.9%
KJ Jefferson run for 19 yds to the BYU 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
85.7%
AJ Green run for 7 yds for a TD (Cam Little KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:0116% → 15%
Q3 11:41
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
83.7%
Kedon Slovis pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:41
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+2
83.9%
Kody Epps run for 2 yds to the BYU 32Similar
Q3 11:41
3RD & 8
OWN 32
0
84.3%
Kedon Slovis pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:40
4TH & 8
OWN 32
0
84.8%
Ryan Rehkow punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Isaiah Sategna at the ARK 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 20DOWNS
7 plays · 22 yds · 3:2683% → 84%
Q3 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+6
83.2%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Andrew Armstrong for 6 yds to the ARK 34Similar
Q3 10:40
2ND & 4
OWN 34
+1
83.6%
AJ Green run for 1 yd to the ARK 35Similar
Q3 10:40
3RD & 3
OWN 35
+6
83.0%
Rashod Dubinion run for 6 yds to the ARK 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
84.3%
KJ Jefferson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:40
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+4
83.9%
Rashod Dubinion run for 4 yds to the ARK 45Similar
Q3 10:40
3RD & 6
OWN 45
+5
83.7%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Isaac TeSlaa for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 7:14
4TH & 1
50
0
84.4%
Rashod Dubinion run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 21FG
7 plays · 24 yds · 2:3117% → 20%
Q3 7:14
1ST & 10
50
0
82.8%
Kedon Slovis pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:14
2ND & 10
50
+15
83.3%
Arkansas Penalty, Roughing the Passer on GRIER, Antonio enforced (15 Yards) to the ARK 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:14
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+4
81.4%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Mata'ava Ta'ase for 4 yds to the ARK 20Similar
Q3 7:14
2ND & 6
OPP 20
+2
81.4%
LJ Martin run for 2 yds to the ARK 18Similar
Q3 7:14
3RD & 4
OPP 18
-3
82.4%
Kedon Slovis sacked by Jaheim Singletary and Landon Jackson for a loss of 3 yards to the ARK 21Similar
Q3 7:14
4TH & 7
OPP 21
-5
84.2%
BYU Penalty, Delay Of Game (Kody Epps) to the ARK 26Similar
Q3 4:43
4TH & 12
OPP 26
+43
80.1%
Will Ferrin 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 22INT
6 plays · 12 yds · 2:3482% → 83%
Q3 4:36
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+10
81.5%
Rashod Dubinion run for 10 yds to the ARK 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:36
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
81.6%
Rashod Dubinion run for 1 yd to the ARK 31Similar
Q3 4:36
2ND & 9
OWN 31
+5
81.5%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Isaac TeSlaa for 5 yds to the ARK 36Similar
Q3 4:36
3RD & 4
OWN 36
+4
82.0%
KJ Jefferson run for 4 yds to the ARK 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:36
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-8
83.2%
KJ Jefferson sacked by Tyler Batty and Blake Mangelson for a loss of 8 yards to the ARK 32Similar
Q3 2:02
2ND & 18
OWN 32
0
82.6%
KJ Jefferson pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 23TD
1 play · 20 yds · 0:0047% → 47%
Q3 1:52
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
53.0%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Parker Kingston for 20 yds for a TD (Will Ferrin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 24MISSED FG
8 plays · 40 yds · 4:0064% → 64%
Q3 1:46
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+15
64.1%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Isaac TeSlaa for 15 yds to the ARK 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:46
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-5
67.2%
Arkansas Penalty, False Start (Joshua Braun) to the ARK 39Similar
Q3 1:46
1ST & 15
OWN 39
+12
64.8%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Andrew Armstrong for 12 yds to the BYU 49Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 3
OPP 49
+16
67.9%
AJ Green run for 16 yds to the BYU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-3
69.4%
AJ Green run for a loss of 3 yards to the BYU 36Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 13
OPP 36
+7
66.3%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to AJ Green for 7 yds to the BYU 29Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 29
-2
67.8%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Dominique Johnson for a loss of 2 yards to the BYU 31Similar
Q4 12:46
4TH & 8
OPP 31
+49
63.5%
Cam Little 49 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 25TD
9 plays · 69 yds · 4:4643% → 81%
Q4 12:46
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-2
57.0%
LJ Martin run for a loss of 2 yards to the BYU 29Similar
Q4 12:46
2ND & 12
OWN 29
+2
58.5%
LJ Martin run for 2 yds to the BYU 31Similar
Q4 12:46
3RD & 10
OWN 31
+12
59.8%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Parker Kingston for 12 yds to the BYU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:46
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
54.1%
Parker Kingston run for 3 yds to the BYU 46Similar
Q4 12:46
2ND & 7
OWN 46
-1
53.8%
LJ Martin run for a loss of 1 yard to the BYU 45Similar
Q4 12:46
3RD & 8
OWN 45
+8
56.1%
Kedon Slovis run for 8 yds to the ARK 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:46
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+37
52.8%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Keelan Marion for 37 yds to the ARK 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
50.3%
LJ Martin run for 3 yds to the ARK 7Similar
Q4 8:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
18.9%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Chase Roberts for 7 yds for a TD (Will Ferrin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 26PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 1:3928% → 20%
Q4 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
28.0%
KJ Jefferson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
27.6%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Andrew Armstrong for 6 yds to the ARK 31Similar
Q4 6:47
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+3
22.0%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Jaedon Wilson for 3 yds to the ARK 34Similar
Q4 6:47
4TH & 1
OWN 34
-4
20.6%
Arkansas Penalty, False Start (Brady Latham) to the ARK 30Similar
Q4 6:21
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
19.9%
Max Fletcher punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Hobbs Nyberg at the BYU 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 27PUNT
5 plays · -13 yds · 1:5080% → 83%
Q4 6:21
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+1
19.7%
LJ Martin run for 1 yd to the BYU 25Similar
Q4 5:22
2ND & 9
OWN 25
-5
15.5%
SLOVIS, Kedon pass short to the left complete for 30 yards to REX, Isaac caught at the BYU29 and advanced to the ARK45 (WALCOTT, Alfahiym). PENALTY BYU Illegal Touch-Pass on REX, Isaac enforced 5 yards from the BYU25 to the BYU20, penalty results in a loss of down [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 5:22
3RD & 14
OWN 20
-9
16.7%
Kedon Slovis sacked by Landon Jackson for a loss of 9 yards to the BYU 11Similar
Q4 4:31
4TH & 23
OWN 11
0
16.8%
Ryan Rehkow punt for 50 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 28FUMBLE
3 plays · -1 yds · 0:4227% → 25%
Q4 4:31
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
27.0%
Rashod Dubinion run for 3 yds to the ARK 42Similar
Q4 4:31
2ND & 7
OWN 42
0
28.4%
KJ Jefferson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:49
3RD & 7
OWN 42
-4
25.3%
KJ Jefferson sacked for a loss of 4 yards to the ARK 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 29MISSED FG
11 plays · 6 yds · 1:5490% → 97%
Q4 3:49
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+1
10.5%
LJ Martin run for 1 yd to the ARK 37Similar
Q4 3:49
2ND & 9
OPP 37
+4
10.6%
LJ Martin run for 4 yds to the ARK 33Similar
Q4 2:56
3RD & 5
OPP 33
+5
9.0%
Arkansas Penalty, Offsides (5 Yards) to the ARK 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:51
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+3
6.8%
LJ Martin run for 3 yds to the ARK 25Similar
Q4 2:44
2ND & 7
OPP 25
-5
6.5%
LJ Martin run for a loss of 5 yards to the ARK 30Similar
Q4 2:00
3RD & 12
OPP 30
-2
3.0%
LJ Martin run for a loss of 2 yards to the ARK 32Similar
Q4 1:55
4TH & 14
OPP 32
+50
2.8%
Will Ferrin 50 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 30Uncategorized
12 plays · 52 yds · 1:5511% → 10%
Q4 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
11.2%
KJ Jefferson sacked for 0 yards to the ARK 32Similar
Q4 1:55
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+13
10.7%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Jaedon Wilson for 13 yds to the ARK 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+21
12.3%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Andrew Armstrong for 21 yds to the BYU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:55
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-10
16.7%
JEFFERSON, KJ scrambles up the middle for a gain of 15 yards to the BYU19 (SLADE, Ethan). PENALTY ARK Holding on CHAMBLEE, Andrew enforced 10 yards from the BYU34 to the BYU44 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 1:55
1ST & 20
OPP 44
-5
12.3%
Arkansas Penalty, False Start (Brady Latham) to the BYU 49Similar
Q4 1:55
1ST & 25
OPP 49
+7
12.2%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Rashod Dubinion for 7 yds to the BYU 42Similar
Q4 1:55
2ND & 18
OPP 42
0
12.1%
KJ Jefferson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:55
3RD & 18
OPP 42
0
11.2%
KJ Jefferson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:55
4TH & 18
OPP 42
+21
10.3%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Luke Hasz for 21 yds to the BYU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:55
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+5
19.0%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Isaiah Sategna for 5 yds to the BYU 16Similar
Q4 1:55
2ND & 5
OPP 16
-10
19.0%
JEFFERSON, KJ pass short to the left incomplete intended for DUBINION, Rashod thrown to the BYU12. PENALTY ARK Holding on LATHAM, Brady enforced 10 yards from the BYU16 to the BYU26 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 15
OPP 26
-5
10.1%
JEFFERSON, KJ pass short up the middle complete for 0 yards to BRAUN, Joshua caught at the BYU25 and advanced to the BYU26 lateral to DUBINION, Rashod for -5 yards to the BYU12 (NELSON, John), clock 00:00. PENALTY ARK Illegal Touch-Pass on BRAUN, Joshua enforced 5 yards from the BYU26 to the BYU31, penalty results in a loss of down [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 8:00
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Chase Roberts for 7 yds for a TD (Will Ferrin KICK)
-31.4
TD · Q3 1:52
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Parker Kingston for 20 yds for a TD (Will Ferrin KICK)
-29.6
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-10.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com