Try the model
HCU

Houston Christian 22 at Western Kentucky 52

WKU
2023 · Week 2 · Sep 9, 2023 · Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · WKU
modelWKU aheadHCU aheadconfidence bandkey playWKU scoreHCU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q3Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 7:58 · Turner Helton pass complete to Ze'Vian Capers for 14 yds to the HCU 8 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+49.0+24.50−24.5−49.0Q3Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 157Pregame prior+13.3Home team on offense+31.9Score differential+22.1Garbage-time factor+12.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+10.0Blowout margin−0.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 2:36: Colby Suits pass complete to Karl Reynolds for 14 yds for a TD (Dillon Fedor KICK) — HCU win probability +0.9 pts (now 1%) (top driver: HCU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:19: Colby Suits pass complete to Karl Reynolds for 22 yds for a TD (Dillon Fedor KICK) — HCU win probability +2.3 pts (now 3%) (top driver: HCU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 9:43: Austin Reed run for 3 yds for a TD (Lucas Carneiro KICK) — WKU win probability +1.1 pts (now 99%) (top driver: WKU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 11:28: Champ Dozier 9 Yd Run (Colby Suits Pass to Ismael Fuller for Two-Point Conversion) — HCU win probability +3.7 pts (now 5%) (top driver: HCU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 9:31: Austin Reed pass complete to Jimmy Holiday for 38 yds for a TD (Lucas Carneiro KICK) — WKU win probability +1.5 pts (now 100%) (top driver: WKU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
WKU made the numbers' call on 5 of 6HCU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q3 2:59HCU 4th & 2 at WKU 44, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.0 ptsPunted · 20.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    17.6%−3.6
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    19.2%−2.0
    average punt
  2. Q1 4:13WKU 4th & 8 at HCU 9, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 98.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.4%−0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    98.4%
    89% to make
    Punt
    98.0%−0.5
    average punt
  3. Q2 11:26HCU 4th & 5 at WKU 32, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.2%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    1.2%−<0.1
    51% to make
    Punt
    1.1%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 1:02WKU 4th & 11 at WKU 21, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.7%−0.2
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.9%
    average punt
  5. Q3 6:59HCU 4th & 21 at HCU 21, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.8%−0.4
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.2%
    average punt
  6. Q3 5:18WKU 4th & 15 at WKU 37, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.8%−0.3
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.1%
    average punt
  7. Q3 5:18WKU 4th & 15 at WKU 37, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.8%−0.3
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.1%
    average punt
  8. Q3 0:39WKU 4th & 4 at WKU 41, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.3%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.3%
    average punt
  9. Q4 7:58HCU 4th & 9 at HCU 26, down 23
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.5%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.6%
    average punt
  10. Q4 7:58WKU 4th & 9 at HCU 22, up 23
    Close callWent for it · 99.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.3%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    99.3%
    72% to make
    Punt
    98.9%−0.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WKU made the numbers' call on 7 of 7HCU made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 11:54WKU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 8:12WKU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 1:43WKU Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 7:59WKU Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 2:36HCU Touchdown, down 25 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    1.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    1.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 0:19HCU Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    2.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    2.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 9:43WKU Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 11:28HCU Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    1.8%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    1.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 9:31WKU Touchdown, up 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 2:42WKU Touchdown, up 29 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
HCUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 19 yds · 2:1917% → 20%
Q3 5:18
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+11
82.9%
Champ Dozier run for 11 yds to the HCU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:18
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
81.5%
Colby Suits pass complete to Darrion Sherfield for 4 yds to the WKU 48Similar
Q3 5:18
2ND & 6
OPP 48
+5
81.2%
Champ Dozier run for 5 yds to the WKU 43Similar
Q3 5:18
3RD & 1
OPP 43
+1
81.1%
Champ Dozier run for 1 yd to the WKU 44 Champ Dozier fumbled, recovered by HCU Champ DozierSimilar
Q3 2:59
4TH & 2
OPP 44
0
79.7%
Wheeler Bowron punt for 31 yds, fair catch by K.D. Hutchinson at the WKU 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HCUDrive 2FUMBLE
5 plays · 20 yds · 1:361% → 1%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
99.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun Suits,Colby pass incomplete short right to Sherfield,Derrion PENALTY WKU Pass Interference (Stout,Upton) 15 yards from HCU25 to HCU40, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
99.0%
Champ Dozier run for no gain to the HCU 40Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+10
99.0%
Colby Suits pass complete to Aaron Sotelo for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:24
1ST & 10
50
-20
98.8%
Colby Suits sacked by Kendrick Simpkins for a loss of 5 yards to the HCU 45 for a 1ST down Houston Christian Penalty, Evans,JaQues at HCU45 Evans,JaQues return Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the HCU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 3TD
5 plays · 27 yds · 1:3099% → 99%
Q1 13:24
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
98.9%
Austin Reed pass incomplete to K.D. HutchinsonSimilar
Q1 13:24
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+2
98.9%
Austin Reed pass complete to Davion Ervin-Poindexter for 2 yds to the HCU 25Similar
Q1 13:24
3RD & 8
OPP 25
+13
98.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun Reed,Austin pass incomplete deep left to Barry,Moussa PENALTY HCU Pass Interference (Flagg,Caleb) 13 yards from HCU25 to HCU12, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 13:24
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+8
98.9%
Austin Reed pass complete to Dalvin Smith for 8 yds to the HCU 4Similar
Q1 11:54
2ND & 2
OPP 4
+4
98.8%
Austin Reed pass complete to River Helms for 4 yds for a TD (Lucas Carneiro KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HCUDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:461% → 1%
Q1 11:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
98.8%
Champ Dozier run for 5 yds to the HCU 30Similar
Q1 11:54
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
98.8%
Colby Suits pass incomplete to Calvin WigginsSimilar
Q1 11:54
3RD & 5
OWN 30
-5
98.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun Suits,Colby pass incomplete short left to Wiggins,Calvin PENALTY HCU Delay Of Game (Bowron,Wheeler) 5 yards from HCU30 to HCU25. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 11:08
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
98.7%
Wheeler Bowron punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Easton Messer at the WKU 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 5TD
9 plays · 65 yds · 2:5699% → 99%
Q1 11:08
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+14
98.7%
Austin Reed pass complete to Jimmy Holiday for 14 yds to the WKU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:08
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+5
98.8%
Austin Reed pass complete to Easton Messer for 5 yds to the HCU 46Similar
Q1 11:08
2ND & 5
OPP 46
+13
98.8%
Markese Stepp run for 13 yds to the HCU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:08
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+6
98.8%
Austin Reed pass complete to K.D. Hutchinson for 6 yds to the HCU 39Similar
Q1 11:08
2ND & 16
OPP 39
+7
98.7%
Austin Reed pass complete to Moussa Barry for 7 yds to the HCU 32Similar
Q1 11:08
3RD & 9
OPP 32
+5
98.7%
PENALTY HCU Offside (Smith,Zae) 5 yards from HCU32 to HCU27. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 11:08
3RD & 4
OPP 27
+7
98.8%
Austin Reed pass complete to Easton Messer for 7 yds to the HCU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:08
3RD & 4
OPP 27
+7
98.8%
Austin Reed pass complete to Easton Messer for 7 yds to the HCU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:12
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
98.7%
Austin Reed pass complete to Blue Smith for 20 yds for a TD (Lucas Carneiro KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 6FG
9 plays · 44 yds · 3:5699% → 99%
Q1 8:09
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+18
98.7%
Easton Messer run for 18 yds to the HCU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:09
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+12
98.7%
Austin Reed pass complete to Davion Ervin-Poindexter for 12 yds to the HCU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:09
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+1
98.7%
Austin Reed run for 1 yd to the HCU 22Similar
Q1 8:09
2ND & 9
OPP 22
+11
98.7%
Austin Reed pass complete to Moussa Barry for 11 yds to the HCU 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:09
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
98.7%
Davion Ervin-Poindexter run for no gain to the HCU 11Similar
Q1 8:09
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+2
98.7%
Austin Reed pass complete to Dalvin Smith for 2 yds to the HCU 9Similar
Q1 8:09
3RD & 8
OPP 9
0
98.7%
Austin Reed pass incomplete to Moussa BarrySimilar
Q1 4:13
4TH & 8
OPP 9
+27
98.6%
Lucas Carneiro 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HCUDrive 7INT TD
6 plays · 8 yds · 2:301% → 1%
Q1 4:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
98.6%
Champ Dozier run for 5 yds to the HCU 30Similar
Q1 4:13
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+3
98.6%
Champ Dozier run for 3 yds to the HCU 33Similar
Q1 4:13
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+5
98.6%
Champ Dozier run for 5 yds to the HCU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:13
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-5
98.6%
PENALTY HCU False Start (Walter,Rob) 5 yards from HCU38 to HCU33. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 1:43
1ST & 15
OWN 33
-53
98.9%
Upton Stout 53 Yd Interception Return (Lucas Carneiro Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HCUDrive 8FUMBLE
11 plays · 75 yds · 5:171% → 1%
Q1 1:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
98.9%
Colby Suits pass complete to Darrion Sherfield for 14 yds to the HCU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:43
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
98.8%
Colby Suits pass complete to Darrion Sherfield for 5 yds to the HCU 44Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 5
OWN 44
+7
98.8%
Colby Suits run for 7 yds to the WKU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+1
98.8%
Champ Dozier run for 1 yd to the WKU 48Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 48
+4
98.8%
Colby Suits pass complete to Karl Reynolds for 4 yds to the WKU 44Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 44
+7
98.8%
Colby Suits pass complete to Adrian Green for 7 yds to the WKU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+6
98.8%
Karl Reynolds run for 6 yds to the WKU 43 Karl Reynolds fumbled, recovered by HCU Karl ReynoldsSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 16
OPP 43
0
98.8%
Colby Suits pass incomplete to Karl ReynoldsSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 16
OPP 43
+11
98.9%
Colby Suits run for 11 yds to the WKU 32Similar
Q2 11:26
4TH & 5
OPP 32
+32
98.8%
Colby Suits pass complete to Karl Reynolds for 32 yds TEAM fumbled, recovered by HCUSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 9TD
8 plays · 80 yds · 3:2799% → 100%
Q2 11:26
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
98.9%
Austin Reed pass complete to Ze'Vian Capers for 5 yds to the WKU 25Similar
Q2 11:26
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+8
99.0%
Markese Stepp run for 8 yds to the WKU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:26
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+7
99.0%
Austin Reed pass complete to K.D. Hutchinson for 7 yds to the WKU 40Similar
Q2 11:26
2ND & 3
OWN 40
0
99.0%
Austin Reed pass incomplete to Trevor BorlandSimilar
Q2 11:26
3RD & 3
OWN 40
+6
99.0%
Markese Stepp run for 6 yds to the WKU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:26
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+20
99.0%
Markese Stepp run for 20 yds to the HCU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:26
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+13
99.0%
Austin Reed pass complete to River Helms for 13 yds to the HCU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:59
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+21
99.5%
Austin Reed pass complete to Easton Messer for 21 yds for a TD (Lucas Carneiro KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HCUDrive 10TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 5:231% → 1%
Q2 7:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
99.3%
Champ Dozier run for 5 yds to the HCU 20Similar
Q2 7:15
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+16
99.5%
Colby Suits pass complete to Karl Reynolds for 16 yds to the HCU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
99.4%
Colby Suits pass complete to Champ Dozier for no gain to the HCU 36Similar
Q2 7:15
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+21
99.5%
Colby Suits pass complete to Aaron Sotelo for 21 yds to the WKU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:15
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+16
99.4%
Colby Suits pass complete to Aaron Sotelo for 16 yds to the WKU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:15
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+6
99.4%
Champ Dozier run for 6 yds to the WKU 21Similar
Q2 4:15
2ND & 4
OPP 21
+6
99.5%
Champ Dozier run for 6 yds to the WKU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:15
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+1
99.6%
Champ Dozier run for 1 yd to the WKU 14Similar
Q2 4:15
2ND & 9
OPP 14
0
99.6%
Colby Suits pass incomplete to Karl ReynoldsSimilar
Q2 2:36
3RD & 9
OPP 14
+14
98.6%
Colby Suits pass complete to Karl Reynolds for 14 yds for a TD (Dillon Fedor KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 1:2999% → 99%
Q2 2:31
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+10
99.0%
Elijah Young run for 10 yds to the WKU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:31
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+6
99.0%
Austin Reed pass complete to Jimmy Holiday for 6 yds to the WKU 28Similar
Q2 2:31
2ND & 4
OWN 28
0
99.0%
Elijah Young run for no gain to the WKU 21 Elijah Young fumbled, recovered by WKU Elijah YoungSimilar
Q2 2:31
3RD & 11
OWN 21
0
99.0%
Austin Reed pass incomplete to Jimmy HolidaySimilar
Q2 1:02
4TH & 11
OWN 21
0
99.0%
Tom Ellard punt for 40 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the HCU 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HCUDrive 12TD
11 plays · 61 yds · 0:431% → 3%
Q2 1:02
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+11
98.7%
Colby Suits pass complete to Alvin Edney for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:02
1ST & 10
50
0
98.6%
Colby Suits pass incomplete to Adrian GreenSimilar
Q2 1:02
2ND & 10
50
0
98.7%
Colby Suits run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 0:41
3RD & 10
50
+11
98.7%
Colby Suits run for 11 yds to the WKU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:33
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+12
99.0%
Colby Suits pass complete to Karl Reynolds for 12 yds to the WKU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:33
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
98.9%
Colby Suits pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:33
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+5
98.9%
PENALTY WKU Delay Of Game 5 yards from WKU27 to WKU22. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:19
2ND & 5
OPP 22
+22
96.6%
Colby Suits pass complete to Karl Reynolds for 22 yds for a TD (Dillon Fedor KICK)Similar
Q2 0:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-15
97.3%
PENALTY HCU UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Reynolds,Karl) 15 yards from WKU03 to WKU18. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 13END OF HALF
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
98.0%
A. Reed takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 14TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 5:1798% → 99%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
97.7%
Davion Ervin-Poindexter run for 1 yd to the WKU 26Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+26
97.7%
Austin Reed pass complete to Easton Messer for 26 yds to the HCU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+13
97.8%
Austin Reed pass complete to Davion Ervin-Poindexter for 13 yds to the HCU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
97.8%
Austin Reed pass incomplete to K.D. HutchinsonSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+3
97.8%
Austin Reed pass complete to K.D. Hutchinson for 3 yds to the HCU 32Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 32
+7
97.7%
Davion Ervin-Poindexter run for 7 yds to the HCU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+16
97.8%
Austin Reed pass complete to Blue Smith for 16 yds to the HCU 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
97.8%
Austin Reed run for 2 yds to the HCU 7Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
97.8%
Austin Reed pass complete to Easton Messer for 4 yds to the HCU 3Similar
Q3 9:43
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
99.0%
Austin Reed run for 3 yds for a TD (Lucas Carneiro KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HCUDrive 15PUNT
7 plays · 12 yds · 2:401% → 1%
Q3 9:39
1ST & 10
OWN 9
-4
99.0%
PENALTY HCU Delay Of Game (Suits,Colby) 4 yards from HCU09 to HCU05. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:39
1ST & 14
OWN 5
+27
99.0%
Jesse Valenzuela run for 27 yds to the HCU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:39
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
98.9%
Jesse Valenzuela run for 1 yd to the HCU 33Similar
Q3 9:39
2ND & 9
OWN 33
+6
98.9%
Colby Suits pass complete to Karl Reynolds for 6 yds to the HCU 39Similar
Q3 9:39
3RD & 3
OWN 39
-15
98.9%
Houston Christian Penalty, UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-15 Yards) to the HCU 21Similar
Q3 6:59
4TH & 21
OWN 21
0
99.0%
Wheeler Bowron punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the WKU 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 16Uncategorized
5 plays · -20 yds · 1:4199% → 99%
Q3 6:59
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
99.0%
Markese Stepp run for no gain to the WKU 42Similar
Q3 6:59
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+2
99.0%
Markese Stepp run for 2 yds to the WKU 37Similar
Q3 6:59
3RD & 15
OWN 37
0
98.9%
Austin Reed pass incomplete to Easton MesserSimilar
Q3 5:18
4TH & 15
OWN 37
0
99.0%
Tom Ellard punt for 42 ydsSimilar
Q3 5:18
4TH & 15
OWN 37
0
99.0%
Tom Ellard punt for 41 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · 28 yds · 2:2099% → 100%
Q3 2:59
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+15
99.2%
Houston Christian Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Jordan Oliver) to the WKU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:59
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
99.2%
Austin Reed pass complete to Easton Messer for 2 yds to the WKU 37Similar
Q3 2:59
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+2
99.2%
Austin Reed pass complete to Blue Smith for 2 yds to the WKU 39Similar
Q3 1:30
3RD & 6
OWN 39
+2
99.5%
Elijah Young run for 2 yds to the WKU 41Similar
Q3 0:39
4TH & 4
OWN 41
0
99.5%
Tom Ellard punt for 36 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HCUDrive 18TD
13 plays · 77 yds · 4:111% → 5%
Q3 0:39
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
99.1%
Colby Suits pass incomplete to Karl ReynoldsSimilar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+2
99.2%
Colby Suits run for 2 yds to the HCU 25Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 25
+14
99.2%
Colby Suits pass complete to Darrion Sherfield for 14 yds to the HCU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
99.1%
Champ Dozier run for 1 yd to the HCU 38Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 38
0
99.1%
Colby Suits pass incomplete to Darrion SherfieldSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 38
+15
99.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun Suits,Colby pass incomplete short left to Reynolds,Karl PENALTY WKU Pass Interference 15 yards from HCU38 to WKU47, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+4
99.1%
Colby Suits run for 4 yds to the WKU 43Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 43
0
99.1%
Colby Suits pass incomplete to Ismael FullerSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 43
+19
99.1%
Champ Dozier run for 19 yds to the WKU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+10
99.0%
Champ Dozier run for 10 yds to the WKU 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+5
99.0%
Colby Suits pass complete to Aaron Sotelo for 5 yds to the WKU 9Similar
Q4 11:28
2ND & 5
OPP 9
+9
95.3%
Champ Dozier 9 Yd Run (Colby Suits Pass to Ismael Fuller for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
Q4 11:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
95.3%
PENALTY HCU UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct offsetting WKU UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct offsetting. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 19TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:5798% → 100%
Q4 11:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
97.8%
Austin Reed pass complete to Jimmy Holiday for 4 yds to the WKU 29Similar
Q4 11:28
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+14
97.8%
Davion Ervin-Poindexter run for 14 yds to the WKU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:28
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+8
98.0%
Austin Reed run for 8 yds to the HCU 49Similar
Q4 11:28
2ND & 2
OPP 49
+11
98.0%
Davion Ervin-Poindexter run for 11 yds to the HCU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:31
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+38
99.5%
Austin Reed pass complete to Jimmy Holiday for 38 yds for a TD (Lucas Carneiro KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HCUDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:331% → 1%
Q4 9:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.3%
Colby Suits pass incomplete to Champ DozierSimilar
Q4 9:31
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
99.3%
Champ Dozier run for 1 yd to the HCU 26Similar
Q4 9:31
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
99.3%
Colby Suits run for no gain to the HCU 26Similar
Q4 7:58
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
99.4%
Wheeler Bowron punt for 44 yds, fair catch by K.D. Hutchinson at the WKU 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 21TD
10 plays · 70 yds · 5:16100% → 100%
Q4 7:58
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
99.5%
Markese Stepp run for 6 yds to the WKU 36Similar
Q4 7:58
2ND & 4
OWN 36
+2
99.6%
Markese Stepp run for 2 yds to the WKU 34Similar
Q4 7:58
3RD & 6
OWN 34
+26
99.5%
Turner Helton pass complete to Easton Messer for 26 yds to the HCU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:58
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+1
99.6%
Markese Stepp run for 1 yd to the HCU 41Similar
Q4 7:58
2ND & 11
OPP 41
+18
99.6%
Turner Helton pass complete to Easton Messer for 18 yds to the HCU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:58
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+1
99.6%
Turner Helton pass complete to Ze'Vian Capers for 1 yd to the HCU 24Similar
Q4 7:58
2ND & 11
OPP 24
+2
99.6%
Elijah Young run for 2 yds to the HCU 22Similar
Q4 7:58
3RD & 9
OPP 22
0
99.6%
Turner Helton run for no gain to the HCU 22Similar
Q4 7:58
4TH & 9
OPP 22
+14
99.5%
Turner Helton pass complete to Ze'Vian Capers for 14 yds to the HCU 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
99.9%
Turner Helton pass complete to Denzil Alleyne for 8 yds for a TD (Lucas Carneiro KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HCUDrive 22END OF GAME
6 plays · 26 yds · 2:420% → 0%
Q4 2:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
100.0%
Jesse Valenzuela run for 4 yds to the HCU 29Similar
Q4 2:42
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+7
99.9%
Jesse Valenzuela run for 7 yds to the HCU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:42
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
99.9%
Jesse Valenzuela run for 5 yds to the HCU 41Similar
Q4 2:42
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+2
99.9%
Jesse Valenzuela run for 2 yds to the HCU 43Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 3
OWN 43
+8
99.9%
Jesse Valenzuela run for 8 yds to the WKU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 11:28
Champ Dozier 9 Yd Run (Colby Suits Pass to Ismael Fuller for Two-Point Conversion)
-3.7
TD · Q2 0:19
Colby Suits pass complete to Karl Reynolds for 22 yds for a TD (Dillon Fedor KICK)
-2.3
TD · Q4 9:31
Austin Reed pass complete to Jimmy Holiday for 38 yds for a TD (Lucas Carneiro KICK)
+1.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com