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MISS

Ole Miss 37 at Tulane 20

TULN
2023 · Week 2 · Sep 9, 2023 · Yulman Stadium
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Win probability · TULN
modelTULN aheadMISS aheadconfidence bandkey playTULN scoreMISS score
0%25%50%75%100%Q3Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDFGTDFGTDFGFGTDEnd of GameFG-2TULN 49.3%Caden Davis 37 yd FG GOODAWAY 10 - HOME 17 · Q2 1:36
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Q2 1:36 · Caden Davis 37 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+51.5+25.80−25.8−51.5Q3Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 92Pregame prior−16.8Home team on offense+4.9Garbage-time factor−0.4Score differential+1.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+1.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 5:49: Kai Horton pass complete to Jha'Quan Jackson for 41 yds for a TD (Valentino Ambrosio KICK) — TULN win probability +9.0 pts (now 51%) (top driver: TULN has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 6:11: Quinshon Judkins run for 9 yds for a TD (Caden Davis KICK) — MISS win probability +18.8 pts (now 66%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  3. FG · Q4 12:50: Caden Davis 27 yd FG GOOD — MISS win probability +3.8 pts (now 66%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 4:28: Jaxson Dart pass complete to Michael Trigg for 21 yds for a TD (Caden Davis KICK) — MISS win probability +16.8 pts (now 93%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 2:56: Valentino Ambrosio 26 yd FG GOOD — TULN win probability +12.3 pts (now 24%) (top driver: TULN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TULN made the numbers' call on 10 of 12MISS made the numbers' call on 9 of 11
  1. Q3 11:46TULN 4th & 3 at MISS 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 45.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    46.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    42.6%−3.5
    23% to make
    Punt
    44.7%−1.4
    average punt
  2. Q3 7:35TULN 4th & 6 at MISS 36, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 47.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    48.2%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    47.1%−1.1
    42% to make
    Punt
    46.5%−1.7
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:48MISS 4th & 2 at MISS 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 70.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    70.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    70.2%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:17MISS 4th & 22 at MISS 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.7%−0.6
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.3%
    average punt
  5. Q1 3:54TULN 4th & 5 at TULN 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.8%−0.3
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.1%
    average punt
  6. Q1 2:08MISS 4th & 7 at MISS 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.4%−0.4
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.8%
    average punt
  7. Q2 14:10TULN 4th & 13 at MISS 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 34.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.0%−0.6
    20% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    34.6%
    64% to make
    Punt
    32.7%−1.9
    average punt
  8. Q2 14:04MISS 4th & 1 at MISS 36, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 63.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    63.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    63.0%−0.7
    average punt
  9. Q2 11:41MISS 4th & 12 at MISS 38, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.6%−1.0
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.6%
    average punt
  10. Q2 8:42TULN 4th & 9 at TULN 47, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.3%−0.6
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.9%
    average punt
  11. Q2 7:34MISS 4th & 6 at MISS 29, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.8%−0.5
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.3%
    average punt
  12. Q2 1:36MISS 4th & 9 at TULN 20, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 44.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.6%−1.4
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    44.1%
    75% to make
    Punt
    37.7%−6.4
    average punt
  13. Q3 13:06TULN 4th & 4 at TULN 31, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.5%−1.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.6%
    average punt
  14. Q3 11:46MISS 4th & 3 at MISS 30, down 7
    Close callPunted · 41.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.2%−1.0
    average punt
  15. Q3 3:18TULN 4th & 10 at TULN 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.1%−2.3
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.4%
    average punt
  16. Q4 12:50MISS 4th & 10 at TULN 10, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 54.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.0%−2.7
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    53.7%
    88% to make
    Punt
    37.2%−16.5
    average punt
  17. Q4 11:23TULN 4th & 2 at MISS 43, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 41.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    41.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    35.9%−5.7
    28% to make
    Punt
    37.1%−4.5
    average punt
  18. Q4 6:49TULN 4th & 2 at MISS 31, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 39.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    38.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    37.2%−1.5
    54% to make
    Punt
    30.4%−8.3
    average punt
  19. Q4 4:28MISS 4th & 4 at TULN 21, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 73.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    72.8%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    71.7%−1.0
    74% to make
    Punt
    53.0%−19.7
    average punt
  20. Q4 4:06TULN 4th & 10 at TULN 25, down 10
    Close callWent for it · 8.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.7%−1.0
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    9.7%
    average punt
  21. Q4 2:56TULN 4th & 8 at MISS 8, down 10
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsKicked a field goal · 8.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.0%
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    9.6%−1.4
    90% to make
    Punt
    5.6%−5.4
    average punt
  22. Q4 1:53MISS 4th & 6 at TULN 39, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 90.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.1%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    89.5%−0.7
    36% to make
    Punt
    89.3%−0.8
    average punt
  23. Q4 0:26TULN 4th & 12 at TULN 39, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.9%
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.9%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TULN made the numbers' call on 2 of 2MISS made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 14:12MISS Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 9:37TULN Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    29.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    29.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 5:49TULN Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 6:11MISS Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 4:28MISS Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.7%−0.5
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 1:25MISS Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TULNDrive 1DOWNS
9 plays · 17 yds · 4:1144% → 44%
Q3 11:46
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-7
43.5%
Kai Horton sacked by Jared Ivey for a loss of 7 yards to the TULN 40Similar
Q3 11:46
2ND & 17
OWN 40
+10
40.9%
Makhi Hughes run for 10 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 11:46
3RD & 7
50
+4
42.5%
Makhi Hughes run for 4 yds to the MISS 46Similar
Q3 11:46
4TH & 3
OPP 46
+6
41.6%
Kai Horton pass complete to Makhi Hughes for 6 yds to the MISS 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:46
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+1
44.1%
Shaadie Clayton-Johnson run for 1 yd to the MISS 39Similar
Q3 11:46
2ND & 9
OPP 39
+14
44.1%
Kai Horton pass complete to for 14 yds fumbled, recovered by TULNSimilar
Q3 11:46
3RD & 9
OPP 39
+3
43.1%
Kai Horton pass complete to Jha'Quan Jackson for 3 yds to the MISS 36Similar
Q3 7:35
4TH & 6
OPP 36
0
44.3%
Kai Horton pass incomplete to Lawrence Keys IIISimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 2TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 0:4878% → 78%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+24
21.6%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Tre Harris for 24 yds to the MISS 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+20
21.6%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Dayton Wade for 20 yds to the TULN 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:12
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+31
21.7%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Tre Harris for 31 yds for a TD (Caden Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 3TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 4:3522% → 25%
Q1 14:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
21.8%
Kai Horton pass complete to Lawrence Keys III for 1 yd to the TULN 26Similar
Q1 14:12
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
21.8%
Kai Horton run for no gain to the TULN 26Similar
Q1 14:12
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+57
21.7%
Kai Horton pass complete to Lawrence Keys III for 57 yds to the MISS 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:12
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+3
21.9%
Shaadie Clayton-Johnson run for 3 yds to the MISS 14Similar
Q1 14:12
2ND & 7
OPP 14
0
21.9%
Kai Horton pass incomplete to Yulkeith BrownSimilar
Q1 14:12
3RD & 7
OPP 14
+8
21.8%
Kai Horton run for 8 yds to the MISS 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
21.9%
Shaadie Clayton-Johnson run for 2 yds to the MISS 4Similar
Q1 14:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
21.9%
Kai Horton run for 2 yds to the MISS 2Similar
Q1 9:37
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
24.8%
Makhi Hughes run for 2 yds for a TD (Valentino Ambrosio KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 4PUNT
14 plays · 23 yds · 4:2076% → 73%
Q1 9:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
24.2%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Dayton Wade for 12 yds to the MISS 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:37
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
24.1%
Quinshon Judkins run for no gain to the MISS 37Similar
Q1 9:37
2ND & 10
OWN 37
0
24.1%
Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Jordan WatkinsSimilar
Q1 8:48
3RD & 10
OWN 37
+8
24.7%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Dayton Wade for 8 yds to the MISS 45Similar
Q1 8:48
4TH & 2
OWN 45
+3
24.5%
Quinshon Judkins run for 3 yds to the MISS 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:48
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
24.2%
Quinshon Judkins run for 3 yds to the TULN 49Similar
Q1 8:48
2ND & 7
OPP 49
+9
24.1%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jordan Watkins for 9 yds to the TULN 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:48
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
24.1%
Quinshon Judkins run for 2 yds to the TULN 38Similar
Q1 8:48
2ND & 8
OPP 38
0
24.1%
Quinshon Judkins run for no gain to the TULN 38Similar
Q1 8:48
3RD & 8
OPP 38
-5
24.2%
PENALTY OMU False Start (Curne,Victor) 5 yards from TLN38 to TLN43. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:48
3RD & 13
OPP 43
-9
24.5%
Jaxson Dart sacked by Eric Hicks Jr. for a loss of 9 yards to the MISS 48Similar
Q1 5:17
4TH & 22
OWN 48
+14
26.8%
Fraser Masin punt for 40 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TULN 26 , Jha'Quan Jackson returns for 14 yds to the TULN 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:2327% → 27%
Q1 5:17
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+1
26.8%
Arnold Barnes Iii run for 1 yd to the TULN 27Similar
Q1 5:17
2ND & 9
OWN 27
+4
26.7%
Shedro Louis run for 4 yds to the TULN 31Similar
Q1 5:17
3RD & 5
OWN 31
0
26.6%
Kai Horton pass incomplete to Jha'Quan JacksonSimilar
Q1 3:54
4TH & 5
OWN 31
0
27.1%
Casey Glover punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Jordan Watkins at the MISS 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:4673% → 71%
Q1 3:54
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
27.3%
Quinshon Judkins run for 1 yd to the MISS 19Similar
Q1 3:54
2ND & 11
OWN 19
-1
27.4%
Jaxson Dart sacked by Darius Hodges for a loss of 1 yard to the MISS 18Similar
Q1 3:54
3RD & 12
OWN 18
+5
27.6%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Quinshon Judkins for 5 yds to the MISS 23Similar
Q1 2:08
4TH & 7
OWN 23
+36
28.6%
Fraser Masin punt for 46 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MISS 33 , Jha'Quan Jackson returns for 36 yds to the MISS 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 7FG
7 plays · 7 yds · 2:5830% → 31%
Q1 2:08
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+6
30.4%
Makhi Hughes run for 6 yds to the MISS 27Similar
Q1 2:08
2ND & 4
OPP 27
+3
30.4%
Makhi Hughes run for 3 yds to the MISS 24Similar
Q1 2:08
3RD & 1
OPP 24
+1
29.9%
Lawrence Keys III run for 1 yd to the MISS 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-9
32.0%
Kai Horton sacked by JJ Pegues for a loss of 9 yards to the MISS 32Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 19
OPP 32
0
31.2%
Kai Horton pass incomplete to Shedro LouisSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 19
OPP 32
+6
30.7%
Shedro Louis run for 6 yds to the MISS 26Similar
Q2 14:10
4TH & 13
OPP 26
+44
31.4%
Valentino Ambrosio 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 8PUNT
9 plays · 11 yds · 2:2368% → 66%
Q2 14:04
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
31.8%
Quinshon Judkins run for 3 yds to the MISS 30Similar
Q2 14:04
2ND & 7
OWN 30
+6
31.6%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Quinshon Judkins for 6 yds to the MISS 36Similar
Q2 14:04
3RD & 1
OWN 36
0
31.1%
Quinshon Judkins run for no gain to the MISS 36Similar
Q2 14:04
4TH & 1
OWN 36
+4
32.1%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jordan Watkins for 4 yds to the MISS 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:04
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
30.9%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 2 yds to the MISS 38Similar
Q2 14:04
2ND & 12
OWN 38
0
31.5%
Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Jordan WatkinsSimilar
Q2 14:04
3RD & 12
OWN 38
0
31.9%
Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Ayden WilliamsSimilar
Q2 11:41
4TH & 12
OWN 38
0
34.3%
Fraser Masin punt for 44 yds , Jha'Quan Jackson returns for no gain to the TULN 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 9PUNT
7 plays · 32 yds · 2:5933% → 35%
Q2 11:41
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+4
33.3%
Makhi Hughes run for 4 yds to the TULN 19Similar
Q2 11:41
2ND & 6
OWN 19
+10
33.3%
Makhi Hughes run for 10 yds to the TULN 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:41
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+17
33.6%
Kai Horton pass complete to Yulkeith Brown for 17 yds to the TULN 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:41
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
34.8%
Shaadie Clayton-Johnson run for 2 yds to the TULN 44Similar
Q2 11:41
2ND & 12
OWN 44
+3
34.0%
Makhi Hughes run for 3 yds to the TULN 47Similar
Q2 11:41
3RD & 9
OWN 47
0
33.7%
Kai Horton pass incomplete to Jha'Quan JacksonSimilar
Q2 8:42
4TH & 9
OWN 47
0
35.4%
Casey Glover punt for 28 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MISS 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:0864% → 62%
Q2 8:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
35.6%
Jaxson Dart run for 3 yds to the MISS 22Similar
Q2 8:42
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+7
35.9%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Dayton Wade for 7 yds to the MISS 29Similar
Q2 8:42
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
36.0%
Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Jalen KnoxSimilar
Q2 7:34
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
38.0%
Fraser Masin punt for 25 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TULN 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 11TD
5 plays · 54 yds · 1:4539% → 51%
Q2 7:34
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
39.2%
Kai Horton run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 7:34
2ND & 6
50
+5
39.4%
Makhi Hughes run for 5 yds to the MISS 45Similar
Q2 7:34
3RD & 1
OPP 45
+4
39.4%
Makhi Hughes run for 4 yds to the MISS 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:49
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+41
50.7%
Kai Horton pass complete to Jha'Quan Jackson for 41 yds for a TD (Valentino Ambrosio KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 12FG
15 plays · 62 yds · 4:0550% → 51%
Q2 5:41
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+17
50.3%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jordan Watkins for 17 yds to the MISS 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:41
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
49.7%
Quinshon Judkins run for 9 yds to the MISS 44Similar
Q2 5:41
2ND & 1
OWN 44
0
47.7%
Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Dayton WadeSimilar
Q2 5:41
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+2
47.9%
Jaxson Dart run for 2 yds to the MISS 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:41
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
48.7%
Jaxson Dart run for 2 yds to the MISS 48Similar
Q2 5:41
2ND & 8
OWN 48
+8
48.5%
Jaxson Dart run for 8 yds to the TULN 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:41
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+1
47.4%
Quinshon Judkins run for 1 yd to the TULN 43Similar
Q2 5:41
2ND & 9
OPP 43
+10
47.4%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Dayton Wade for 10 yds to the TULN 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:41
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+12
46.6%
Jaxson Dart run for 12 yds to the TULN 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:41
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
46.2%
Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Dayton WadeSimilar
Q2 5:41
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+1
46.5%
Quinshon Judkins run for 1 yd to the TULN 20Similar
Q2 1:46
3RD & 9
OPP 20
0
51.3%
Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Jalen KnoxSimilar
Q2 1:36
4TH & 9
OPP 20
+37
49.3%
Caden Davis 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 13END OF HALF
4 plays · 11 yds · 1:3650% → 51%
Q2 1:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
50.3%
Makhi Hughes run for 2 yds to the TULN 27Similar
Q2 1:36
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+1
50.5%
Makhi Hughes run for 1 yd to the TULN 28Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+8
51.1%
Shaadie Clayton-Johnson run for 8 yds to the TULN 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:5450% → 51%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
50.3%
Kai Horton sacked by Isaac Ukwu for a loss of 5 yards to the TULN 20Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+4
49.7%
Makhi Hughes run for 4 yds to the TULN 24Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+7
48.6%
Kai Horton pass complete to Alex Bauman for 7 yds to the TULN 31Similar
Q3 13:06
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
50.6%
Casey Glover punt for 46 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MISS 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 15Uncategorized
5 plays · -9 yds · 1:2049% → 44%
Q3 13:06
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+6
51.5%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Dayton Wade for 6 yds to the MISS 29Similar
Q3 12:35
2ND & 4
OWN 29
+1
52.5%
Jaxson Dart run for 1 yd to the MISS 30Similar
Q3 12:35
3RD & 3
OWN 30
0
53.8%
Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Jordan WatkinsSimilar
Q3 11:46
4TH & 3
OWN 30
0
56.3%
Fraser Masin punt for 39 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 16TD
4 plays · 64 yds · 1:2442% → 66%
Q3 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
57.8%
Quinshon Judkins run for 5 yds to the MISS 41Similar
Q3 7:35
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+29
56.2%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jordan Watkins for 29 yds to the TULN 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:35
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+21
53.3%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Quinshon Judkins for 21 yds to the TULN 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
34.5%
Quinshon Judkins run for 9 yds for a TD (Caden Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 17PUNT
8 plays · 19 yds · 2:4944% → 43%
Q3 6:07
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+5
43.7%
Makhi Hughes run for 5 yds to the TULN 15Similar
Q3 6:07
2ND & 5
OWN 15
+1
43.7%
Makhi Hughes run for 1 yd to the TULN 16Similar
Q3 6:07
3RD & 4
OWN 16
+13
42.1%
Kai Horton pass complete to Alex Bauman for 13 yds to the TULN 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:07
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
44.4%
Makhi Hughes run for no gain to the TULN 29Similar
Q3 6:07
2ND & 10
OWN 29
0
43.8%
Kai Horton pass incomplete to Dontae FlemingSimilar
Q3 6:07
3RD & 10
OWN 29
0
42.1%
Kai Horton pass incomplete to Jha'Quan JacksonSimilar
Q3 3:18
4TH & 10
OWN 29
+3
42.5%
Casey Glover punt for 42 yds , Jordan Watkins returns for 3 yds to the MISS 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 18INT
4 plays · 10 yds · 1:1760% → 57%
Q3 3:18
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+12
40.5%
Quinshon Judkins run for 12 yds to the MISS 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:18
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
38.2%
Quinshon Judkins run for no gain to the MISS 44Similar
Q3 3:18
2ND & 10
OWN 44
0
39.3%
Ole Miss Penalty, Offensive Holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 2:01
3RD & 12
OWN 42
0
42.6%
Jaxson Dart pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 19INT
3 plays · 1 yds · 1:3150% → 49%
Q3 2:01
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
50.4%
Makhi Hughes run for 3 yds to the TULN 49Similar
Q3 2:01
2ND & 7
OWN 49
+2
50.8%
Kai Horton run for 2 yds to the TULN 47Similar
Q3 0:30
3RD & 9
OWN 47
0
48.6%
Kai Horton pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 20FG
7 plays · 10 yds · 2:4064% → 66%
Q3 0:30
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+1
36.2%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jordan Watkins for 1 yd to the TULN 19Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 9
OPP 19
-10
36.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun Judkins,Quinshon rush right for 3 yards gain to the TLN16 (Robinson,Lance; Machado,Jesus) PENALTY OMU Holding (Pettus,Micah) 10 yards from TLN19 to TLN29. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 19
OPP 29
+20
38.9%
Jaxson Dart run for 20 yds to the TULN 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
36.4%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 2 yds to the TULN 7Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
36.4%
Jaxson Dart run for 2 yds to the TULN 5Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
-5
38.3%
Jaxson Dart sacked for a loss of 5 yards to the TULN 10Similar
Q4 12:50
4TH & GOAL
OPP 10
+27
34.5%
Caden Davis 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 21DOWNS
15 plays · 45 yds · 6:0137% → 37%
Q4 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
37.2%
Arnold Barnes Iii run for 3 yds to the TULN 28Similar
Q4 12:50
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+5
37.6%
Kai Horton pass complete to Alex Bauman for 5 yds to the TULN 33Similar
Q4 12:50
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+2
38.5%
Makhi Hughes run for 2 yds to the TULN 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
37.8%
Kai Horton pass incomplete to Dontae FlemingSimilar
Q4 11:23
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+7
36.5%
Makhi Hughes run for 7 yds to the TULN 42 fumbled, recovered by MISSSimilar
Q4 11:23
3RD & 3
OWN 42
+7
39.2%
Kai Horton pass complete to Lawrence Keys III for 7 yds to the TULN 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:23
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
41.0%
Kai Horton pass incomplete to Lawrence Keys IIISimilar
Q4 11:23
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+4
40.4%
Makhi Hughes run for 4 yds to the MISS 47Similar
Q4 11:23
3RD & 6
OPP 47
+4
40.7%
Makhi Hughes run for 4 yds to the MISS 43Similar
Q4 11:23
4TH & 2
OPP 43
+4
38.8%
Kai Horton pass complete to Jha'Quan Jackson for 4 yds to the MISS 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:23
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
41.9%
Kai Horton pass incomplete to Chris Brazzell IISimilar
Q4 11:23
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+5
41.7%
Makhi Hughes run for 5 yds to the MISS 34Similar
Q4 11:23
3RD & 5
OPP 34
+3
41.8%
Makhi Hughes run for 3 yds to the MISS 31Similar
Q4 6:49
4TH & 2
OPP 31
+1
36.9%
Kai Horton run for 1 yd to the MISS 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 22TD
6 plays · 70 yds · 2:2172% → 93%
Q4 6:49
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+43
28.0%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Dayton Wade for 43 yds to the TULN 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:49
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+3
22.8%
Quinshon Judkins run for 3 yds to the TULN 30Similar
Q4 6:49
2ND & 13
OPP 30
0
23.7%
Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Michael TriggSimilar
Q4 5:20
3RD & 13
OPP 30
+9
23.8%
Jaxson Dart run for 9 yds to the TULN 21Similar
Q4 4:28
4TH & 4
OPP 21
+21
7.0%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Michael Trigg for 21 yds for a TD (Caden Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 23FG
14 plays · 67 yds · 1:329% → 24%
Q4 4:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
8.6%
Kai Horton pass incomplete to Chris Brazzell IISimilar
Q4 4:28
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
8.5%
Kai Horton pass incomplete to Alex BaumanSimilar
Q4 4:28
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
8.1%
Tulane Penalty, Offensive Holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 4:06
4TH & 10
OWN 25
-10
7.5%
Kai Horton sacked by Jared Ivey for a loss of 10 yards to the TULN 15Similar
Q4 4:06
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+15
7.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun Horton,Kai sacked for loss of 10 yards to the TLN15 (Ivey,Jared) PENALTY OMU Personal Foul (Ivey,Jared) 15 yards from TLN25 to TLN40, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 4:06
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
9.4%
Kai Horton pass incomplete to Alex BaumanSimilar
Q4 4:06
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+17
8.9%
Shaadie Clayton-Johnson run for 17 yds to the MISS 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:06
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+35
10.5%
Kai Horton pass complete to Jha'Quan Jackson for 35 yds to the MISS 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
13.2%
Kai Horton pass incomplete to Lawrence Keys IIISimilar
Q4 4:06
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
13.2%
Kai Horton pass incomplete to Chris Brazzell IISimilar
Q4 4:06
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
0
11.5%
Kai Horton pass incomplete to Lawrence Keys IIISimilar
Q4 2:56
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
+26
23.9%
Valentino Ambrosio 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 24FG
8 plays · 4 yds · 1:0395% → 98%
Q4 2:56
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+2
4.8%
Quinshon Judkins run for 2 yds to the TULN 41Similar
Q4 2:52
2ND & 8
OPP 41
+2
4.5%
Quinshon Judkins run for 2 yds to the TULN 39Similar
Q4 2:47
3RD & 6
OPP 39
+5
4.8%
Jaxson Dart run for 5 yds to the TULN 34Similar
Q4 2:47
4TH & 1
OPP 34
-5
5.8%
PENALTY OMU False Start (Heath,Kyirin) 5 yards from TLN34 to TLN39. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:53
4TH & 6
OPP 39
+56
2.2%
Caden Davis 56 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 25FUMBLE RETURN TD
3 plays · 1 yds · 0:284% → 1%
Q4 1:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+21
3.5%
Kai Horton pass complete to Lawrence Keys III for 21 yds to the TULN 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+26
0.9%
Jared Ivey 26 Yd Fumble Return (Caden Davis Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 26DOWNS
8 plays · 12 yds · 0:551% → 1%
Q4 1:21
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+6
0.9%
Kai Horton pass complete to Alex Bauman for 6 yds to the TULN 33Similar
Q4 1:21
2ND & 4
OWN 33
+8
0.9%
Kai Horton pass complete to Lawrence Keys III for 8 yds to the TULN 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:21
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
0.9%
Kai Horton pass incomplete to Lawrence Keys IIISimilar
Q4 1:21
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+3
0.9%
Shaadie Clayton-Johnson run for 3 yds to the TULN 44Similar
Q4 1:21
3RD & 7
OWN 44
0
0.9%
Kai Horton pass incomplete to Chris Brazzell IISimilar
Q4 1:21
4TH & 7
OWN 44
-5
0.9%
PENALTY TLN False Start (Horton,Kai) 5 yards from TLN44 to TLN39. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 0:26
4TH & 12
OWN 39
0
0.8%
Kai Horton pass incomplete to Lawrence Keys IIISimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 27END OF GAME
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
0.9%
Matt Jones run for no gain to the TULN 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 6:11
Quinshon Judkins run for 9 yds for a TD (Caden Davis KICK)
-18.8
TD · Q4 4:28
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Michael Trigg for 21 yds for a TD (Caden Davis KICK)
-16.8
FG · Q4 2:56
Valentino Ambrosio 26 yd FG GOOD
+12.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com