Try the model
APSU

Austin Peay 13 at Tennessee 30

TENN
2023 · Week 2 · Sep 9, 2023 · Neyland Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · TENN
modelTENN aheadAPSU aheadconfidence bandkey playTENN scoreAPSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q2Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGFGFGFGFGFGTDTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 2:19 · Riley Stephens punt for 47 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+50.0+25.00−25.0−50.0Q2Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 82Pregame prior+40.4Home team on offense−0.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.1Score differential−2.4Garbage-time factor−0.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.8
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 8:15: Maddux Trujillo 34 yd FG GOOD — APSU win probability +1.4 pts (now 3%) (top driver: APSU has the ball).
  2. FG · Q3 6:33: Charles Campbell 22 yd FG GOOD — TENN win probability +1.4 pts (now 99%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 9:01: Mike DiLiello pass complete to Trey Goodman for 52 yds for a TD (Maddux Trujillo KICK) — APSU win probability +3.8 pts (now 5%) (top driver: APSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 9:01: Timeout Tennessee, clock 09:01 — TENN win probability +2.7 pts (now 98%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 8:03: Joe Milton III pass complete to McCallan Castles for 43 yds for a TD (Charles Campbell KICK) — TENN win probability +1.6 pts (now 100%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TENN made the numbers' call on 5 of 8APSU made the numbers' call on 10 of 11
  1. Q1 15:00APSU 4th & 2 at APSU 33, tied
    Close callWent for it · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.7%−<0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:06APSU 4th & 15 at TENN 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.7%−0.1
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    0.8%
    62% to make
    Punt
    0.5%−0.4
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:11TENN 4th & 5 at TENN 30, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.1%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.1%
    average punt
  4. Q1 7:58APSU 4th & 9 at APSU 41, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.1%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.2%
    average punt
  5. Q1 6:52TENN 4th & 8 at TENN 37, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.7%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.8%
    average punt
  6. Q1 5:51TENN 4th & 8 at APSU 11, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 98.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.6%−<0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    98.7%
    87% to make
    Punt
    98.2%−0.5
    average punt
  7. Q1 2:23APSU 4th & 17 at APSU 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.5%−0.2
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.7%
    average punt
  8. Q2 14:54TENN 4th & 3 at APSU 17, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.0%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    98.0%−<0.1
    80% to make
    Punt
    97.6%−0.5
    average punt
  9. Q2 14:54APSU 4th & 1 at TENN 44, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    1.9%−0.2
    27% to make
    Punt
    2.0%−0.2
    average punt
  10. Q2 8:15APSU 4th & 5 at TENN 16, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 3.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.6%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    3.6%
    81% to make
    Punt
    3.1%−0.5
    average punt
  11. Q2 4:55TENN 4th & 4 at APSU 19, down 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 95.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.0%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    94.9%−0.1
    77% to make
    Punt
    93.7%−1.3
    average punt
  12. Q2 2:19APSU 4th & 15 at APSU 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.9%−0.4
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.3%
    average punt
  13. Q3 11:54APSU 4th & 9 at APSU 36, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.4%−0.2
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.6%
    average punt
  14. Q3 10:50TENN 4th & 14 at TENN 26, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.0%−0.5
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.5%
    average punt
  15. Q3 9:03APSU 4th & 3 at TENN 44, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    2.8%−0.5
    27% to make
    Punt
    3.1%−0.2
    average punt
  16. Q3 6:33TENN 4th & 4 at APSU 4, up 14
    Close callKicked a field goal · 97.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.3%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    97.2%−0.2
    93% to make
    Punt
    95.4%−1.9
    average punt
  17. Q3 1:37APSU 4th & 5 at TENN 45, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.4%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    1.8%−0.6
    25% to make
    Punt
    2.2%−0.2
    average punt
  18. Q4 11:31TENN 4th & 3 at TENN 42, up 17
    Close callPunted · 98.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.3%−0.1
    average punt
  19. Q4 0:54APSU 4th & 1 at TENN 1, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.2%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    1.8%−1.4
    94% to make
    Punt
    1.1%−2.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TENN made the numbers' call on 3 of 3APSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q2 0:15TENN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 13:30TENN Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 9:01APSU Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    5.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    5.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 8:03TENN Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
APSUDrive 1END OF HALF
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
94.1%
Mike DiLiello pass complete to Tre Shackelford for 2 yds to the APSU 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APSUDrive 2FG
10 plays · 48 yds · 3:540% → 1%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
99.6%
Mike DiLiello pass complete to Kenny Odom for 1 yd to the APSU 24Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
99.6%
Trey Goodman pass incomplete to Tre ShackelfordSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+9
99.6%
Mike DiLiello pass complete to Kam Thomas for 9 yds to the APSU 33Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 2
OWN 33
+45
99.6%
Mike DiLiello run for 45 yds to the TENN 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+6
99.6%
Mike DiLiello pass complete to Tre Shackelford for 6 yds to the TENN 16Similar
Q1 12:17
2ND & 19
OPP 31
+4
99.5%
Mike DiLiello pass complete to Kam Thomas for 4 yds to the TENN 27Similar
Q1 12:17
3RD & 15
OPP 27
0
99.5%
Mike DiLiello pass incomplete to Kam ThomasSimilar
Q1 11:06
4TH & 15
OPP 27
+45
99.4%
Maddux Trujillo 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:5599% → 99%
Q1 11:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.4%
Joe Milton III pass incomplete to Bru McCoySimilar
Q1 11:06
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
99.4%
Jaylen Wright run for 5 yds to the TENN 30Similar
Q1 11:06
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
99.4%
Joe Milton III pass incomplete to Squirrel WhiteSimilar
Q1 10:11
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
99.3%
Jackson Ross punt for 30 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the APSU 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APSUDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 2:131% → 1%
Q1 10:11
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+9
99.3%
Mike DiLiello pass complete to Trey Goodman for 9 yds to the APSU 49Similar
Q1 10:11
2ND & 1
OWN 49
-6
99.3%
Mike DiLiello sacked by Kurott Garland for a loss of 6 yards to the APSU 43Similar
Q1 10:11
3RD & 7
OWN 43
+2
99.3%
Mike DiLiello pass complete to Kenny Odom for 2 yds to the APSU 41Similar
Q1 7:58
4TH & 9
OWN 41
+5
99.2%
Riley Stephens punt for 40 yds , Dee Williams returns for 5 yds to the TENN 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 13 yds · 1:0699% → 99%
Q1 7:58
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+11
99.2%
Joe Milton III pass complete to Jaylen Wright for 11 yds to the TENN 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:58
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
99.2%
Jaylen Wright run for 2 yds to the TENN 37Similar
Q1 7:58
2ND & 8
OWN 37
0
99.2%
Joe Milton III pass incomplete to McCallan CastlesSimilar
Q1 7:58
3RD & 8
OWN 37
0
99.2%
Joe Milton III pass incomplete to Squirrel WhiteSimilar
Q1 6:52
4TH & 8
OWN 37
0
99.1%
Jackson Ross punt for 49 yds , Kam Thomas returns for no gain to the APSU 13 Kam Thomas fumbled, recovered by APSU Warren BurrellSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 6FG
6 plays · 2 yds · 1:0199% → 99%
Q1 6:52
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+5
99.2%
Jaylen Wright run for 5 yds to the APSU 8Similar
Q1 6:52
2ND & 5
OPP 8
+3
99.2%
Jaylen Wright run for 3 yds to the APSU 11Similar
Q1 6:52
3RD & 8
OPP 11
0
99.1%
Joe Milton III pass incomplete to Bru McCoySimilar
Q1 5:51
4TH & 8
OPP 11
+28
99.1%
Charles Campbell 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APSUDrive 7PUNT
8 plays · 4 yds · 3:281% → 1%
Q1 5:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
99.1%
Mike DiLiello run for 3 yds to the APSU 22Similar
Q1 5:51
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+9
99.1%
Mike DiLiello pass complete to Trey Goodman for 9 yds to the APSU 31Similar
Q1 5:51
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
99.1%
Mike DiLiello pass incomplete to Kam ThomasSimilar
Q1 4:13
4TH & 4
OWN 31
+5
98.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun DiLiello,Mike pass incomplete deep right to Hawkins,Brenen PENALTY TENN Offside (Norman-Lott,Omarr) 5 yards from APSU31 to APSU36, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:13
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
98.9%
Jevon Jackson run for no gain to the APSU 36Similar
Q1 4:13
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+2
98.9%
Jevon Jackson run for 2 yds to the APSU 38Similar
Q1 2:23
4TH & 17
OWN 29
+13
98.8%
Riley Stephens punt for 40 yds , Dee Williams returns for 13 yds to the TENN 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 8DOWNS
12 plays · 39 yds · 2:2999% → 99%
Q1 2:23
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+18
98.9%
Jabari Small run for 18 yds to the APSU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:23
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+3
98.9%
Jabari Small run for 3 yds to the APSU 35Similar
Q1 2:23
2ND & 7
OPP 35
0
98.9%
Joe Milton III pass incomplete to Dont'e Thornton Jr.Similar
Q1 2:23
3RD & 7
OPP 35
+11
98.9%
Jabari Small run for 11 yds to the APSU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:23
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+4
98.9%
Jabari Small run for 4 yds to the APSU 20Similar
Q1 2:23
2ND & 6
OPP 20
+1
98.9%
Jabari Small run for 1 yd to the APSU 19Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 5
OPP 19
+2
98.5%
Dylan Sampson run for 2 yds to the APSU 17Similar
Q2 14:54
4TH & 3
OPP 17
0
98.5%
Joe Milton III pass incomplete to Dont'e Thornton Jr.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APSUDrive 9FG
14 plays · 67 yds · 6:392% → 3%
Q2 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+15
98.3%
Shotgun DiLiello,Mike pass incomplete deep right to Shackelford,Tre PENALTY TENN Pass Interference (Hadden,Kamal) 15 yards from APSU17 to APSU32, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+15
98.3%
Mike DiLiello pass complete to MJ Singleton for 15 yds to the APSU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
98.2%
Mike DiLiello pass incomplete to Tre ShackelfordSimilar
Q2 14:54
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+5
98.2%
CJ Evans Jr. run for 5 yds to the TENN 48Similar
Q2 14:54
3RD & 5
OPP 48
+4
98.2%
CJ Evans Jr. run for 4 yds to the TENN 44Similar
Q2 14:54
4TH & 1
OPP 44
+2
98.3%
Mike DiLiello run for 2 yds to the TENN 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+9
98.2%
Mike DiLiello run for 9 yds to the TENN 33Similar
Q2 14:54
2ND & 1
OPP 33
0
98.1%
Mike DiLiello pass complete to Tre Shackelford for no gain to the TENN 33Similar
Q2 14:54
3RD & 1
OPP 33
+12
98.2%
Mike DiLiello run for 12 yds to the TENN 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:54
1ST & 15
OPP 26
+1
98.1%
Mike DiLiello pass complete to MJ Singleton for 1 yd to the TENN 27Similar
Q2 14:54
2ND & 16
OPP 27
+11
98.2%
Mike DiLiello pass complete to Tre Shackelford for 11 yds to the TENN 16Similar
Q2 14:54
3RD & 5
OPP 16
0
98.2%
Mike DiLiello pass incomplete to CJ Evans Jr.Similar
Q2 8:15
4TH & 5
OPP 16
+34
96.8%
Maddux Trujillo 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 10FG
10 plays · 65 yds · 3:1197% → 97%
Q2 8:06
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+14
96.8%
Joe Milton III pass complete to Jabari Small for 14 yds to the TENN 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:06
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+7
96.8%
Joe Milton III pass complete to Bru McCoy for 7 yds to the TENN 37Similar
Q2 8:06
2ND & 3
OWN 37
+38
97.0%
Jabari Small run for 38 yds to the APSU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:06
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-15
97.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun Milton III,Joe pass complete short right to Keyton,Ramel for 14 yards to the APSU11 (Lyles,Jaden) PENALTY TENN Pass Interference (White,Squirrel) 15 yards from APSU25 to APSU40. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:06
1ST & 25
OPP 40
+11
97.0%
Joe Milton III pass complete to Jacob Warren for 11 yds to the APSU 29Similar
Q2 8:06
2ND & 14
OPP 29
+10
97.1%
Joe Milton III pass complete to Bru McCoy for 10 yds to the APSU 19Similar
Q2 8:06
3RD & 4
OPP 19
-7
97.1%
Joe Milton III pass complete to Squirrel White for 3 yds to the APSU 16 Tennessee Penalty, Offensive Holding (Bru McCoy) to the APSU 26Similar
Q2 8:06
3RD & 11
OPP 26
+7
97.0%
Joe Milton III pass complete to Ramel Keyton for 7 yds to the APSU 19Similar
Q2 4:55
4TH & 4
OPP 19
+37
96.9%
Charles Campbell 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APSUDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 2:364% → 4%
Q2 4:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
96.2%
Mike DiLiello pass complete to Jordan Goco for 1 yd to the APSU 26Similar
Q2 4:55
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+5
96.2%
Mike DiLiello run for 5 yds to the APSU 21Similar
Q2 4:55
3RD & 14
OWN 21
+4
96.4%
Mike DiLiello pass complete to MJ Singleton for 4 yds to the APSU 25Similar
Q2 2:19
4TH & 15
OWN 20
0
95.6%
Riley Stephens punt for 47 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 12TD
14 plays · 67 yds · 2:0496% → 97%
Q2 2:19
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+1
95.9%
Joe Milton III pass complete to Squirrel White for 1 yd to the TENN 34Similar
Q2 2:19
2ND & 9
OWN 34
+15
95.9%
Jaylen Wright run for 15 yds to the TENN 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:19
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
96.3%
Joe Milton III pass complete to Jaylen Wright for no gain to the TENN 49Similar
Q2 2:19
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+16
96.2%
Joe Milton III pass complete to Bru McCoy for 16 yds to the APSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:19
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+9
96.5%
Joe Milton III pass complete to Ramel Keyton for 9 yds to the APSU 26Similar
Q2 2:19
2ND & 1
OPP 26
+5
96.5%
Jaylen Wright run for 5 yds to the APSU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:47
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-4
96.1%
Joe Milton III pass complete to Squirrel White for 6 yds to the APSU 15 Tennessee Penalty, Offensive Holding (Ramel Keyton) to the APSU 25Similar
Q2 0:47
1ST & 14
OPP 25
+17
96.1%
Jaylen Wright run for 17 yds to the APSU 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
96.1%
Joe Milton III pass incomplete to Bru McCoySimilar
Q2 0:47
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
96.1%
Jaylen Wright run for 2 yds to the APSU 6Similar
Q2 0:15
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
97.0%
Joe Milton III 6 Yd Run (Charles Campbell Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 13TD
8 plays · 66 yds · 1:2197% → 98%
Q3 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+7
96.8%
Joe Milton III pass complete to Jaylen Wright for 7 yds to the TENN 41Similar
Q3 14:51
2ND & 3
OWN 41
+26
97.1%
Jaylen Wright run for 26 yds to the APSU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:16
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+31
97.2%
Jaylen Wright run for 31 yds to the APSU 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+3
97.2%
Jaylen Wright run for 3 yds to the APSU 5Similar
Q3 13:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
98.4%
Joe Milton III pass complete to Ramel Keyton for 5 yds for a TD (Charles Campbell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APSUDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:362% → 2%
Q3 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
97.9%
CJ Evans Jr. run for 3 yds to the APSU 38Similar
Q3 13:30
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+2
97.9%
Mike DiLiello run for 2 yds to the APSU 36Similar
Q3 13:30
3RD & 9
OWN 36
0
98.1%
Mike DiLiello pass incomplete to Tre ShackelfordSimilar
Q3 11:54
4TH & 9
OWN 36
0
98.0%
Riley Stephens punt for 34 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TENN 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 1:0498% → 98%
Q3 11:54
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-7
98.0%
Joe Milton III sacked by J'Vian McCray for a loss of 7 yards to the TENN 23Similar
Q3 11:54
2ND & 17
OWN 23
+3
98.0%
Jabari Small run for 3 yds to the TENN 26Similar
Q3 11:54
3RD & 14
OWN 26
0
97.9%
Joe Milton III pass incomplete to Jabari SmallSimilar
Q3 10:50
4TH & 14
OWN 26
0
97.6%
Jackson Ross punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Kam Thomas at the APSU 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APSUDrive 16DOWNS
8 plays · 19 yds · 1:472% → 3%
Q3 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+5
97.7%
Mike DiLiello pass complete to Brenen Hawkins for 5 yds to the APSU 34Similar
Q3 10:50
2ND & 5
OWN 34
+15
97.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun DiLiello,Mike pass incomplete deep right to Thomas,Kam PENALTY TENN Pass Interference (Hadden,Kamal) 15 yards from APSU34 to APSU49, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
97.4%
Mike DiLiello pass incomplete to Kam ThomasSimilar
Q3 10:06
2ND & 10
OWN 49
0
97.4%
Trey Goodman pass incomplete to Kenny OdomSimilar
Q3 10:06
3RD & 10
OWN 49
+7
97.5%
CJ Evans Jr. run for 7 yds to the TENN 44Similar
Q3 9:03
4TH & 3
OPP 44
-8
97.1%
Mike DiLiello sacked by Wesley Walker for a loss of 8 yards to the APSU 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 17FG
10 plays · 44 yds · 2:3098% → 99%
Q3 9:03
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+8
98.1%
Joe Milton III run for 8 yds to the APSU 40Similar
Q3 9:03
2ND & 2
OPP 40
-5
98.0%
PENALTY TENN False Start (Spraggins,Javontez) 5 yards from APSU40 to APSU45. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:03
2ND & 7
OPP 45
+3
98.0%
Dylan Sampson run for 3 yds to the APSU 42Similar
Q3 9:03
3RD & 4
OPP 42
+17
98.0%
Joe Milton III pass complete to Ramel Keyton for 17 yds to the APSU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:03
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+20
98.1%
Joe Milton III pass complete to Squirrel White for 20 yds to the APSU 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
97.8%
Jabari Small run for 1 yd to the APSU 4Similar
Q3 7:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
97.8%
Joe Milton III pass complete to for 3 yds to the APSU 4Similar
Q3 7:30
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
97.7%
Joe Milton III pass incomplete to Squirrel WhiteSimilar
Q3 6:33
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+22
99.0%
Charles Campbell 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APSUDrive 18DOWNS
12 plays · 20 yds · 4:562% → 1%
Q3 6:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
98.3%
Mike DiLiello pass complete to Brenen Hawkins for 9 yds to the APSU 34Similar
Q3 6:33
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+3
98.1%
Mike DiLiello run for 3 yds to the APSU 32Similar
Q3 6:33
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+7
98.1%
Jevon Jackson run for 7 yds to the APSU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:33
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
98.1%
Mike DiLiello pass incomplete to Kenny OdomSimilar
Q3 6:33
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+6
98.1%
Jevon Jackson run for 6 yds to the APSU 45Similar
Q3 6:33
3RD & 4
OWN 45
+5
98.1%
Mike DiLiello run for 5 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:33
1ST & 10
50
-6
98.0%
Mike DiLiello sacked by Joshua Josephs for a loss of 6 yards to the APSU 44Similar
Q3 6:33
2ND & 16
OWN 44
+8
98.3%
Mike DiLiello pass complete to MJ Singleton for 8 yds to the TENN 48Similar
Q3 6:33
3RD & 8
OPP 48
+3
98.1%
Jevon Jackson run for 3 yds to the TENN 45Similar
Q3 1:37
4TH & 5
OPP 45
-10
98.7%
Mike DiLiello sacked by Aaron Beasley for a loss of 10 yards to the APSU 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 19FUMBLE
6 plays · 27 yds · 1:21100% → 100%
Q3 1:37
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
99.5%
Joe Milton III pass complete to Bru McCoy for 2 yds to the APSU 47Similar
Q3 1:37
2ND & 12
OPP 47
+9
99.5%
Jaylen Wright run for 9 yds to the APSU 38Similar
Q3 1:37
3RD & 3
OPP 38
0
99.5%
Joe Milton III pass incomplete to Ramel KeytonSimilar
Q3 1:37
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-5
99.5%
PENALTY TENN False Start (Spraggins,Javontez) 5 yards from APSU34 to APSU39. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 1:37
1ST & 15
OPP 39
+7
99.5%
Jaylen Wright run for 7 yds to the APSU 32Similar
Q3 0:16
2ND & 8
OPP 32
+14
99.5%
Joe Milton III pass complete to Ramel Keyton for 14 yds Ramel Keyton fumbled, recovered by APSU Sam HowardSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APSUDrive 20INT
6 plays · 9 yds · 1:571% → 1%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+4
99.0%
Kam Thomas run for 4 yds to the APSU 22Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 22
0
98.9%
Mike DiLiello pass incomplete to Kenny OdomSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 22
+18
99.0%
Mike DiLiello pass complete to Kam Thomas for 18 yds to the APSU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
98.9%
Mike DiLiello pass incomplete to Kam ThomasSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 40
-7
98.9%
Mike DiLiello sacked by James Pearce Jr. for a loss of 7 yards to the APSU 33Similar
Q4 13:03
3RD & 23
OWN 27
0
99.1%
Mike DiLiello pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:32100% → 100%
Q4 13:03
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
99.6%
Jabari Small run for 4 yds to the TENN 39Similar
Q4 13:03
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+5
99.6%
Jabari Small run for 5 yds to the TENN 44Similar
Q4 13:03
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+2
99.6%
Jabari Small run for 2 yds to the TENN 42Similar
Q4 11:31
4TH & 3
OWN 42
0
99.7%
Jackson Ross punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Kam Thomas at the APSU 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APSUDrive 22TD
8 plays · 90 yds · 2:301% → 5%
Q4 11:31
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+6
99.1%
Mike DiLiello pass complete to Jaden Barnes for 6 yds to the APSU 16Similar
Q4 11:31
2ND & 4
OWN 16
+1
99.1%
Mike DiLiello pass complete to CJ Evans Jr. for 1 yd to the APSU 17Similar
Q4 11:31
3RD & 3
OWN 17
+3
99.1%
Mike DiLiello run for 3 yds to the APSU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:31
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+26
99.1%
Mike DiLiello pass complete to Tre Shackelford for 26 yds to the APSU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:31
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
99.1%
CJ Evans Jr. run for 2 yds to the APSU 48Similar
Q4 9:01
2ND & 8
OWN 48
+52
95.3%
Mike DiLiello pass complete to Trey Goodman for 52 yds for a TD (Maddux Trujillo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 23TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 0:5898% → 100%
Q4 9:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
98.1%
Joe Milton III pass complete to Dylan Sampson for 9 yds to the TENN 34Similar
Q4 9:01
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+3
98.1%
Dylan Sampson run for 3 yds to the TENN 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:01
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+20
98.1%
Joe Milton III pass complete to Bru McCoy for 20 yds to the APSU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:03
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+43
99.8%
Joe Milton III pass complete to McCallan Castles for 43 yds for a TD (Charles Campbell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APSUDrive 24DOWNS
17 plays · 74 yds · 7:091% → 1%
Q4 8:03
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+1
99.3%
CJ Evans Jr. run for 1 yd to the APSU 21Similar
Q4 8:03
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+15
99.3%
Mike DiLiello pass complete to Tre Shackelford for 15 yds to the APSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:03
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
99.3%
Mike DiLiello pass complete to MJ Singleton for 4 yds to the APSU 40Similar
Q4 8:03
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+8
99.3%
Mike DiLiello pass complete to CJ Evans Jr. for 8 yds to the APSU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:03
1ST & 25
OWN 33
+6
99.4%
Mike DiLiello pass complete to Jaden Barnes for 6 yds to the APSU 39Similar
Q4 8:03
2ND & 19
OWN 39
+22
99.4%
Mike DiLiello pass complete to CJ Evans Jr. for 22 yds to the TENN 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:03
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+2
99.3%
Mike DiLiello pass complete to Tre Shackelford for 2 yds to the TENN 37Similar
Q4 8:03
2ND & 8
OPP 37
+11
99.3%
Mike DiLiello run for 11 yds to the TENN 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:03
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+16
99.2%
Mike DiLiello pass complete to Jaden Barnes for 16 yds to the TENN 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+1
99.1%
CJ Evans Jr. run for 1 yd to the TENN 11Similar
Q4 8:03
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
+5
99.2%
PENALTY TENN Offside (Herring,Caleb) 5 yards from TENN11 to TENN06. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-2
98.9%
Mike DiLiello sacked by Tyler Baron for a loss of 2 yards to the TENN 5Similar
Q4 8:03
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
98.9%
Mike DiLiello run for 3 yds to the TENN 2Similar
Q4 8:03
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
99.0%
Mike DiLiello run for 1 yd to the TENN 1Similar
Q4 0:54
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
0
98.8%
Mike DiLiello run for no gain to the TENN 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 25END OF GAME
2 plays · 9 yds · 0:54100% → 100%
Q4 0:54
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+3
99.5%
Jabari Small run for 3 yds to the TENN 4Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 7
OWN 4
+6
99.5%
Jabari Small run for 6 yds to the TENN 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 9:01
Mike DiLiello pass complete to Trey Goodman for 52 yds for a TD (Maddux Trujillo KICK)
-3.8
TD · Q4 9:01
Timeout Tennessee, clock 09:01
+2.7
TD · Q4 8:03
Joe Milton III pass complete to McCallan Castles for 43 yds for a TD (Charles Campbell KICK)
+1.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com