2023 · Week 2 · Sep 9, 2023 · Williams-Brice Stadium
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Win probability · SC
modelSC aheadFUR aheadconfidence bandkey playSC scoreFUR score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 10:16 · Mitch Jeter 50 yd FG MISSED
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorBlowout margin
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 11:57: Tyler Huff pass complete to Luke Shiflett for 4 yds for a TD (Ian Williams KICK) — FUR win probability +5.6 pts (now 28%) (top driver: FUR has the ball).
- TD · Q2 11:57: Timeout South Carolina, clock 11:57 — SC win probability +4.9 pts (now 77%) (top driver: SC has the ball).
- TD · Q2 8:26: Timeout South Carolina, clock 08:26 — FUR win probability +3.8 pts (now 22%) (top driver: FUR has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:43: Spencer Rattler pass complete to Luke Doty for 36 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — SC win probability +7.0 pts (now 84%) (top driver: SC has the ball).
- TD · Q3 8:36: Spencer Rattler pass complete to Xavier Legette for 42 yds for a TD (Mitch Jeter KICK) — SC win probability +5.9 pts (now 97%) (top driver: SC has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
SC made the numbers' call on 5 of 6FUR made the numbers' call on 8 of 8
- Q1 10:16SC 4th & 3 at FUR 32, tiedClose callKicked a field goal · 86.7% before the snapGo for it86.7%53% to convertField goalTheir call86.7%−0.151% to makePunt86.6%−0.2average punt
- Q1 7:27FUR 4th & 1 at SC 1, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 14.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call14.6%59% to convertField goal14.3%−0.294% to makePunt13.7%−0.9average punt
- Q1 3:38FUR 4th & 7 at FUR 28, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 15.4% before the snapGo for it15.4%−0.236% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call15.6%average punt
- Q1 2:01SC 4th & 8 at SC 23, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 83.2% before the snapGo for it83.1%−0.332% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call83.4%average punt
- Q2 7:34FUR 4th & 15 at FUR 20, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 20.5% before the snapGo for it19.2%−1.316% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call20.5%average punt
- Q2 6:19SC 4th & 8 at SC 37, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 78.7% before the snapGo for it78.1%−0.734% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call78.7%average punt
- Q2 4:31FUR 4th & 9 at FUR 18, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 21.9% before the snapGo for it21.0%−0.930% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call21.9%average punt
- Q2 0:56SC 4th & 2 at FUR 41, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 77.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call77.8%57% to convertField goal77.2%−0.632% to makePunt76.8%−1.0average punt
- Q2 0:23FUR 4th & 1 at FUR 34, down 6Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.7% before the snapGo for it17.4%−0.271% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call17.6%average punt
- Q3 10:06FUR 4th & 18 at SC 46, down 13Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.2% before the snapGo for it8.8%−0.913% to convertField goal9.0%−0.723% to makePuntTheir call9.7%average punt
- Q3 7:44FUR 4th & 3 at FUR 32, down 20Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.1% before the snapGo for it3.3%−0.252% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.5%average punt
- Q3 4:09SC 4th & 16 at SC 42, up 20Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.2% before the snapGo for it96.8%−0.816% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call97.6%average punt
- Q4 5:59FUR 4th & 3 at SC 26, down 33Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.1%52% to convertField goal0.1%−<0.164% to makePunt-0.1%−0.2average punt
- Q4 1:11SC 4th & 16 at SC 24, up 26Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.8% before the snapGo for it99.7%−0.214% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.8%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SC made the numbers' call on 5 of 7FUR made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
- Q1 7:27FUR Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call15.4%97% to makeGo for two15.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 4:59SC Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call84.8%97% to makeGo for two84.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 11:57FUR Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call22.9%97% to makeGo for two22.8%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 8:26SC Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call78.4%97% to makeGo for two78.3%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:43SC Touchdown, up 6 before the tryClose callWent for two · failedKick83.0%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call83.0%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:03SC Touchdown, up 12 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call89.3%97% to makeGo for two89.2%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 8:36SC Touchdown, up 19 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call95.4%97% to makeGo for two95.4%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 0:09SC Touchdown, up 26 before the tryClose callWent for two · failedKick99.9%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 10:40SC Touchdown, up 32 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 4:41FUR Touchdown, down 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call0.2%97% to makeGo for two0.2%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartSCDrive 1MISSED FG11 plays · 43 yds · 4:4487% → 86%
Q1 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+7
87.4%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Xavier Legette for 7 yds to the SC 31Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+5
87.4%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Xavier Legette for 5 yds to the SC 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 11
OPP 40
+6
87.4%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Xavier Legette for 6 yds to the FUR 34Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 34
+2
87.4%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Ahmarean Brown for 2 yds to the FUR 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FURDrive 2TD8 plays · 68 yds · 2:4914% → 17%
Q1 10:16
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+51
85.7%
Joshua Harris pass complete to Kyndel Dean for 51 yds to the SC 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 3TD10 plays · 72 yds · 2:2183% → 85%
Q1 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
83.1%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Antwane Wells Jr. for 5 yds to the SC 33Similar
Q1 7:20
2ND & 5
OWN 33
+20
83.3%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Ahmarean Brown for 20 yds to the FUR 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:20
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+27
83.6%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Dakereon Joyner for 27 yds to the FUR 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:47
3RD & 2
OPP 12
+9
82.2%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Joshua Simon for 9 yds to the FUR 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FURDrive 4PUNT5 plays · 3 yds · 1:2116% → 16%
Q1 3:38
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+3
83.9%
Ryan Leavy punt for 54 yds , Ahmarean Brown returns for 3 yds to the SC 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 5PUNT4 plays · 2 yds · 1:3784% → 83%
Q1 3:38
2ND & 9
OWN 22
+1
83.8%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Ahmarean Brown for 1 yd to the SC 23Similar
Q1 3:38
3RD & 8
OWN 23
0
83.5%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Ahmarean Brown for no gain to the SC 23Similar
Q1 2:01
4TH & 8
OWN 23
0
82.8%
Kai Kroeger punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Joshua Harris at the FUR 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FURDrive 6TD13 plays · 66 yds · 5:0418% → 28%
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+13
80.3%
Tyler Huff pass complete to Colton Hinton for 13 yds to the SC 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+4
80.2%
Tyler Huff pass complete to Joshua Harris for 4 yds to the SC 14Similar
Q2 11:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
71.9%
Tyler Huff pass complete to Luke Shiflett for 4 yds for a TD (Ian Williams KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 7TD12 plays · 75 yds · 3:3177% → 81%
Q2 11:57
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+12
76.7%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Dakereon Joyner for 12 yds to the SC 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:57
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+16
77.6%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Ahmarean Brown for 16 yds to the FUR 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:57
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+23
78.3%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Dakereon Joyner for 8 yds to the FUR 36 for a 1ST down Furman Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Braden Gilby) to the FUR 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:57
2ND & 9
OPP 20
+15
78.5%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Trey Knox for 15 yds to the FUR 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FURDrive 8PUNT6 plays · -5 yds · 0:5222% → 22%
Q2 8:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
77.6%
PENALTY Furman False Start (Hundley,Blake) 5 yards from Furman25 to Furman20. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 9PUNT4 plays · 2 yds · 1:1580% → 78%
FURDrive 10PUNT6 plays · 1 yds · 1:4824% → 22%
Q2 6:19
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-8
75.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun Huff,Tyler pass complete short right to Shiflett,Luke for 11 yards to the Furman28 (Howard,Grayson) PENALTY Furman Pass Interference (Ferguson,Ben) 8 yards from Furman17 to Furman09. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:19
1ST & 18
OWN 9
+3
76.4%
Tyler Huff pass complete to Wayne Anderson Jr. for 3 yds to the FUR 12Similar
Q2 6:19
2ND & 15
OWN 12
+6
76.0%
Tyler Huff pass complete to Dominic Roberto for 6 yds to the FUR 18Similar
Q2 4:31
4TH & 9
OWN 18
+25
78.1%
Ryan Leavy punt for 46 yds , Ahmarean Brown returns for 25 yds to the SC 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 11TD11 plays · 74 yds · 3:4879% → 84%
Q2 4:31
2ND & 4
OWN 32
+2
79.1%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Joshua Simon for 2 yds Joshua Simon fumbled, recovered by FURSimilar
Q2 4:31
3RD & 6
OWN 30
+9
77.8%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Eddie Lewis for 9 yds to the SC 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:31
2ND & 5
OWN 44
+7
80.1%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Eddie Lewis for 7 yds to the FUR 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:31
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+6
80.0%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Dakereon Joyner for 6 yds to the FUR 43Similar
Q2 0:56
4TH & 2
OPP 41
+5
77.2%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Xavier Legette for 5 yds to the FUR 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:43
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+36
84.3%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Luke Doty for 36 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FURDrive 12PUNT7 plays · 9 yds · 0:2015% → 13%
Q2 0:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
84.8%
Tyler Huff pass complete to Joshua Harris for 8 yds to the FUR 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 13TD4 plays · 75 yds · 0:2083% → 88%
Q2 0:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+53
82.6%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Xavier Legette for 53 yds to the FUR 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:23
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+15
84.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun Rattler,Spencer pass incomplete deep right to Legette,Xavier, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY Furman Pass Interference (Blackshear,Travis) 15 yards from Furman22 to Furman07, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
87.9%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to O'Mega Blake for 7 yds for a TD (Mitch Jeter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FURDrive 14END OF HALF2 plays · -1 yds · 0:009% → 9%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FURDrive 15PUNT13 plays · 29 yds · 4:5411% → 9%
Q3 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 27
-5
89.1%
PENALTY Furman False Start 5 yards from Furman27 to Furman22. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+9
89.1%
Tyler Huff pass complete to Joshua Harris for 9 yds to the FUR 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+10
88.6%
Tyler Huff pass complete to Joshua Harris for 10 yds to the FUR 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 45
+17
88.7%
Tyler Huff pass complete to Ben Ferguson for 17 yds to the SC 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 13
OPP 41
-5
88.5%
Tyler Huff sacked by T.J. Sanders for a loss of 5 yards to the SC 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 16TD5 plays · 90 yds · 1:3091% → 97%
FURDrive 17PUNT5 plays · 7 yds · 0:524% → 3%
Q3 7:44
4TH & 3
OWN 32
+6
96.6%
Ryan Leavy punt for 48 yds , Eddie Lewis returns for 6 yds to the SC 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 18PUNT10 plays · 16 yds · 3:3598% → 98%
FURDrive 19PUNT5 plays · 21 yds · 1:593% → 2%
Q3 4:09
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+27
97.3%
Tyler Huff pass complete to Joshua Harris for 27 yds to the FUR 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:09
2ND & 9
OWN 29
-5
97.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun Huff,Tyler pass incomplete short right to Dean,Kyndel QB hurried by Williams,Debo PENALTY Furman Delay Of Game 5 yards from Furman29 to Furman24. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:09
2ND & 14
OWN 24
-2
97.2%
Tyler Huff sacked by Jordan Strachan for a loss of 2 yards to the FUR 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 20TD5 plays · 67 yds · 2:0198% → 100%
FURDrive 21INT6 plays · 22 yds · 1:560% → 0%
SCDrive 22TD8 plays · 38 yds · 2:24100% → 100%
FURDrive 23DOWNS12 plays · 49 yds · 4:410% → 0%
Q4 10:13
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+28
99.9%
Carson Jones pass complete to Colton Hinton for 28 yds to the SC 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:13
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
99.9%
Carson Jones pass complete to Bailor Hughes for 3 yds to the SC 43Similar
Q4 10:13
3RD & 7
OPP 30
+4
99.9%
Carson Jones pass complete to Bailor Hughes for 4 yds to the SC 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 24FUMBLE2 plays · -10 yds · 1:10100% → 100%
FURDrive 25TD1 play · 16 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 4:41
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
99.9%
Carson Jones pass complete to Brock Chappell for 16 yds for a TD (Axel Lepvreau KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 26PUNT8 plays · 12 yds · 3:26100% → 100%
Q4 4:37
3RD & 7
OWN 15
+15
99.9%
Colten Gauthier pass complete to Tyshawn Russell for 15 yds to the SC 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FURDrive 27END OF GAME3 plays · 20 yds · 1:110% → 0%
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:43
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Luke Doty for 36 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed )
+7
TD · Q3 8:36
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Xavier Legette for 42 yds for a TD (Mitch Jeter KICK)
+5.9
TD · Q2 11:57
Tyler Huff pass complete to Luke Shiflett for 4 yds for a TD (Ian Williams KICK)
-5.6