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AF

Air Force 13 at Sam Houston 3

SHSU
2023 · Week 2 · Sep 9, 2023 · NRG Stadium
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Win probability · SHSU
modelSHSU aheadAF aheadconfidence bandkey playSHSU scoreAF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 1:36 · Kneel down by LARRIER, Zac at SAM48 (team loss of 2).
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+38.5+19.30−19.3−38.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. KEY PLAY · Q3 12:52: Zach Hrbacek run for 9 yds to the SHSU 47 — SHSU win probability +4.1 pts (now 34%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  2. FG · Q3 6:03: Colby Sessums 45 yd FG GOOD — SHSU win probability +7.5 pts (now 43%) (top driver: SHSU has the ball).
  3. FG · Q4 13:41: Matthew Dapore 42 yd FG GOOD — AF win probability +6.5 pts (now 69%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 13:37: Zach Hrbacek run for 2 yds to the SHSU 22 — SHSU win probability +4.4 pts (now 36%) (top driver: SHSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 5:14: Owen Burk run for 5 yds for a TD (Matthew Dapore KICK) — AF win probability +17.8 pts (now 92%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
SHSU made the numbers' call on 8 of 10AF made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
  1. Q1 13:06SHSU 4th & 3 at SHSU 23, tied
    Close callPunted · 21.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.5%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:31AF 4th & 18 at AF 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.8%−0.2
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.0%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:06SHSU 4th & 11 at SHSU 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.2%−0.2
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.3%
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:13AF 4th & 6 at AF 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.9%−0.2
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.1%
    average punt
  5. Q1 3:17SHSU 4th & 12 at SHSU 36, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.8%−0.5
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.3%
    average punt
  6. Q1 1:21AF 4th & 12 at AF 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.6%−0.6
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.2%
    average punt
  7. Q2 13:39SHSU 4th & 21 at SHSU 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.8%−1.2
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.0%
    average punt
  8. Q2 8:36AF 4th & 2 at SHSU 25, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 69.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    69.3%−0.5
    66% to make
    Punt
    66.4%−3.4
    average punt
  9. Q2 7:48SHSU 4th & 7 at SHSU 28, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.4%−0.7
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.1%
    average punt
  10. Q2 5:42AF 4th & 13 at AF 38, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.2%−1.5
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.7%
    average punt
  11. Q2 3:38SHSU 4th & 2 at SHSU 18, down 3
    Close callPunted · 29.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.0%−0.3
    average punt
  12. Q3 12:52SHSU 4th & 1 at AF 29, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 34.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    34.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    31.1%−3.0
    58% to make
    Punt
    24.8%−9.3
    average punt
  13. Q3 6:03SHSU 4th & 12 at AF 29, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 34.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.2%−2.1
    23% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    34.3%
    58% to make
    Punt
    26.2%−8.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 13:41AF 4th & 2 at SHSU 25, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.4 ptsKicked a field goal · 58.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    56.6%−2.4
    66% to make
    Punt
    42.8%−16.2
    average punt
  15. Q4 11:34SHSU 4th & 14 at SHSU 16, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.5%−4.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.7%
    average punt
  16. Q4 3:37SHSU 4th & 7 at SHSU 23, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.0%−0.5
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.6%
    average punt
  17. Q4 3:37AF 4th & 4 at SHSU 48, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 90.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    90.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    90.2%−0.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
AF made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q4 5:14AF Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.0%−0.8
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SHSUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:4821% → 22%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+3
20.6%
Zach Hrbacek run for 3 yds to the SHSU 19Similar
Q1 14:54
2ND & 7
OWN 19
+4
20.6%
run for 4 yds to the SHSU 23Similar
Q1 14:54
3RD & 3
OWN 23
0
20.6%
Keegan Shoemaker run for no gain to the SHSU 23Similar
Q1 13:06
4TH & 3
OWN 23
0
21.4%
Jadon Cardell punt for 44 ydsSimilar
Q1 13:06
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+15
21.5%
Sam Houston Penalty, Face mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the AFA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 2:3579% → 77%
Q1 13:06
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
21.4%
Owen Burk run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 13:06
2ND & 8
50
-4
21.3%
John Lee Eldridge III run for a loss of 4 yards to the AFA 46 fumbled, recovered by AFA John Lee Eldridge IIISimilar
Q1 13:06
3RD & 12
OWN 46
-6
21.5%
Zac Larrier sacked by Chris Scott for a loss of 6 yards to the AFA 40Similar
Q1 10:31
4TH & 18
OWN 40
0
23.0%
Luke Freer punt for 41 yds, downed at the SHSU 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 3PUNT
9 plays · 21 yds · 3:2523% → 24%
Q1 10:31
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+7
22.8%
Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Ife Adeyi for 7 yds to the SHSU 26Similar
Q1 10:31
2ND & 3
OWN 26
+2
22.9%
Keegan Shoemaker run for 2 yds to the SHSU 28Similar
Q1 10:31
3RD & 1
OWN 28
+2
22.7%
run for 2 yds to the SHSU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:31
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+8
22.9%
Keegan Shoemaker run for 8 yds to the SHSU 38Similar
Q1 10:31
2ND & 2
OWN 38
+3
23.1%
John Gentry run for 3 yds to the SHSU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:31
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-1
23.1%
Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Noah Smith for a loss of 1 yard to the SHSU 40Similar
Q1 10:31
2ND & 11
OWN 40
0
22.9%
Keegan Shoemaker pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:31
3RD & 11
OWN 40
0
22.8%
Keegan Shoemaker pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:06
4TH & 11
OWN 40
0
24.1%
Jadon Cardell punt for 41 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:5376% → 74%
Q1 7:06
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+2
24.4%
Owen Burk run for 2 yds to the AFA 21Similar
Q1 7:06
2ND & 8
OWN 21
+2
24.4%
Zac Larrier run for 2 yds to the AFA 23Similar
Q1 7:06
3RD & 6
OWN 23
0
24.6%
Zac Larrier run for no gain to the AFA 23Similar
Q1 5:13
4TH & 6
OWN 23
0
26.0%
Luke Freer punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Noah Smith at the SHSU 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 1:5626% → 26%
Q1 5:13
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
25.9%
Zach Hrbacek run for 2 yds to the SHSU 40Similar
Q1 5:13
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+5
26.0%
Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Zach Hrbacek for 5 yds to the SHSU 45Similar
Q1 5:13
3RD & 3
OWN 45
-9
26.0%
Keegan Shoemaker sacked by PJ Ramsey for a loss of 9 yards to the SHSU 36Similar
Q1 3:17
4TH & 12
OWN 36
0
26.0%
Jadon Cardell punt for 35 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 1:5674% → 72%
Q1 3:17
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+1
26.3%
Zac Larrier run for 1 yd to the AFA 30Similar
Q1 3:17
2ND & 9
OWN 30
-5
26.3%
Zac Larrier sacked by Kavian Gaither for a loss of 5 yards to the AFA 25Similar
Q1 3:17
3RD & 14
OWN 25
+2
26.9%
Zac Larrier run for 2 yds to the AFA 27Similar
Q1 1:21
4TH & 12
OWN 27
0
28.0%
Luke Freer punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Noah Smith at the SHSU 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 7PUNT
7 plays · 1 yds · 2:4228% → 28%
Q1 1:21
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+9
28.0%
Keegan Shoemaker run for 9 yds to the SHSU 39Similar
Q1 1:21
2ND & 1
OWN 39
0
28.8%
Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Noah Smith for no gain to the SHSU 39Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 1
OWN 39
+3
29.3%
Charles Crawford III run for 3 yds to the SHSU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
29.6%
Keegan Shoemaker pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+2
29.1%
Zach Hrbacek run for 2 yds to the SHSU 44Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 44
-13
28.9%
Keegan Shoemaker sacked by Bo Richter for a loss of 13 yards to the SHSU 31Similar
Q2 13:39
4TH & 21
OWN 31
0
28.4%
Jadon Cardell punt for 41 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 8FG
9 plays · 47 yds · 5:0372% → 72%
Q2 13:39
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+18
28.4%
Aiden Calvert run for 18 yds to the AFA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:39
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+6
27.4%
Emmanuel Michel run for 6 yds to the SHSU 48Similar
Q2 13:39
2ND & 4
OPP 48
+4
27.1%
Emmanuel Michel run for 4 yds to the SHSU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:39
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+9
27.2%
Zac Larrier run for 9 yds to the SHSU 35Similar
Q2 13:39
2ND & 1
OPP 35
+2
26.7%
Owen Burk run for 2 yds to the SHSU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:39
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+3
26.8%
Zac Larrier run for 3 yds to the SHSU 30Similar
Q2 13:39
2ND & 7
OPP 30
+1
26.7%
Emmanuel Michel run for 1 yd to the SHSU 29Similar
Q2 13:39
3RD & 6
OPP 29
+4
27.4%
Zac Larrier run for 4 yds to the SHSU 25Similar
Q2 8:36
4TH & 2
OPP 25
+42
28.4%
Matthew Dapore 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:4829% → 28%
Q2 8:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
29.3%
John Gentry run for 3 yds to the SHSU 28Similar
Q2 8:36
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
29.5%
Keegan Shoemaker pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:36
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
28.6%
Keegan Shoemaker pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:48
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
27.5%
Jadon Cardell punt for 45 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 11 yds · 2:0672% → 70%
Q2 7:48
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+9
28.2%
John Lee Eldridge III run for 9 yds to the AFA 36Similar
Q2 7:48
2ND & 1
OWN 36
+5
27.5%
Emmanuel Michel run for 5 yds to the AFA 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:48
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
27.1%
Zac Larrier pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:48
2ND & 10
OWN 41
-3
27.5%
John Lee Eldridge III run for a loss of 3 yards to the AFA 38Similar
Q2 7:48
3RD & 13
OWN 38
0
28.5%
Zac Larrier pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:42
4TH & 13
OWN 38
0
30.4%
Luke Freer punt for 52 yds, fair catch by Noah Smith at the SHSU 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 2:0429% → 29%
Q2 5:42
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+2
29.4%
Zach Hrbacek run for 2 yds to the SHSU 12Similar
Q2 5:42
2ND & 8
OWN 12
+4
29.3%
Zach Hrbacek run for 4 yds to the SHSU 16Similar
Q2 5:42
3RD & 4
OWN 16
+2
28.6%
Keegan Shoemaker run for 2 yds to the SHSU 18Similar
Q2 3:38
4TH & 2
OWN 18
0
29.1%
Jadon Cardell punt for 42 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 12END OF HALF
9 plays · 18 yds · 1:3372% → 71%
Q2 3:38
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+12
28.5%
Zac Larrier run for 12 yds to the SHSU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:38
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+6
28.1%
Emmanuel Michel run for 6 yds to the SHSU 42Similar
Q2 2:05
2ND & 4
OPP 42
+9
26.6%
Zac Larrier run for 9 yds to the SHSU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:05
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-10
26.2%
QB Keeper LARRIER, Zac rush to the left for a gain of 3 yards to the SAM30 (ARMSTEAD, Da'Veawn). PENALTY AFA Holding on RILLOS, Caleb enforced 10 yards from the SAM33 to the SAM43. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 2:05
1ST & 20
OPP 43
-10
27.4%
LARRIER, Zac pass to the right complete for 1 yard to MICHEL, Emmanuel caught at the SAM46 and advanced to the SAM42 (DOWNES, Isaiah). PENALTY AFA Illegal Block in the Back on RILLOS, Caleb enforced 10 yards from the SAM43 to the AFA47. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 2:05
1ST & 30
OWN 47
+2
28.0%
Zac Larrier run for 2 yds to the AFA 49Similar
Q2 2:05
2ND & 28
OWN 49
+4
28.5%
Emmanuel Michel run for 4 yds to the SHSU 47Similar
Q2 2:05
3RD & 24
OPP 47
+5
29.1%
Emmanuel Michel run for 5 yds to the SHSU 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 13FUMBLE
4 plays · 37 yds · 2:0870% → 70%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
30.5%
Zac Larrier run for 3 yds to the AFA 28 Zac Larrier fumbled, recovered by AFA Jared RoznosSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-2
30.2%
John Lee Eldridge III run for a loss of 2 yards to the AFA 26Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+14
31.4%
Zac Larrier pass complete to John Lee Eldridge III for 14 yds to the AFA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:52
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+22
29.6%
Emmanuel Michel run for 22 yds to the SHSU 38 Emmanuel Michel fumbled, recovered by SHSU Dakerric HobbsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 14FG
14 plays · 33 yds · 6:4934% → 43%
Q3 12:52
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+9
33.7%
Zach Hrbacek run for 9 yds to the SHSU 47Similar
Q3 12:52
2ND & 1
OWN 47
+2
35.6%
Zach Hrbacek run for 2 yds to the SHSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:52
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+2
35.4%
Keegan Shoemaker run for 2 yds to the AFA 49Similar
Q3 12:52
2ND & 8
OPP 49
+3
35.7%
Zach Hrbacek run for 3 yds to the AFA 46Similar
Q3 12:52
3RD & 5
OPP 46
+8
35.3%
Keegan Shoemaker run for 8 yds to the AFA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:52
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-8
36.0%
Keegan Shoemaker sacked by Bo Richter for a loss of 8 yards to the AFA 46Similar
Q3 12:52
2ND & 18
OPP 46
+7
33.8%
Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Zach Hrbacek for 7 yds to the AFA 39Similar
Q3 12:52
3RD & 11
OPP 39
+10
33.6%
Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Ife Adeyi for 10 yds to the AFA 29Similar
Q3 12:52
4TH & 1
OPP 29
+2
34.2%
run for 2 yds to the AFA 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:52
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-10
37.1%
ADEYI, Ife rush to the left for a gain of 4 yards to the AFA23 (GAILLARD, JR., Jerome), out of bounds. PENALTY SAM Holding on GENTRY, John enforced 10 yards from the AFA27 to the AFA37 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 12:52
1ST & 20
OPP 37
0
34.3%
Charles Crawford III run for no gain to the AFA 37Similar
Q3 12:52
2ND & 20
OPP 37
+13
34.0%
Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Noah Smith for 13 yds to the AFA 24Similar
Q3 12:52
3RD & 7
OPP 24
-5
35.6%
Keegan Shoemaker run for a loss of 5 yards to the AFA 29Similar
Q3 6:03
4TH & 12
OPP 29
+45
43.1%
Colby Sessums 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 15FG
14 plays · 45 yds · 7:1560% → 69%
Q3 5:56
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
40.0%
Owen Burk run for 5 yds to the AFA 35Similar
Q3 5:56
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+4
38.6%
Zac Larrier run for 4 yds to the AFA 39Similar
Q3 5:56
3RD & 1
OWN 39
+4
37.8%
Owen Burk run for 4 yds to the AFA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:56
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
37.5%
Owen Burk run for 4 yds to the AFA 47Similar
Q3 5:56
2ND & 6
OWN 47
+4
37.0%
John Lee Eldridge III run for 4 yds to the SHSU 49Similar
Q3 5:56
3RD & 2
OPP 49
+3
37.1%
Jet Harris run for 3 yds to the SHSU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:56
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
35.5%
Zac Larrier run for 2 yds to the SHSU 44Similar
Q3 5:56
2ND & 8
OPP 44
+4
35.7%
Zac Larrier run for 4 yds to the SHSU 40Similar
Q3 5:56
3RD & 4
OPP 40
+7
35.9%
Owen Burk run for 7 yds to the SHSU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
36.0%
Owen Burk run for no gain to the SHSU 33Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+4
36.3%
Owen Burk run for 4 yds to the SHSU 29Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 29
+4
38.0%
John Lee Eldridge III run for 4 yds to the SHSU 25Similar
Q4 13:41
4TH & 2
OPP 25
+42
31.5%
Matthew Dapore 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 2:0336% → 31%
Q4 13:37
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
35.9%
Zach Hrbacek run for 2 yds to the SHSU 22Similar
Q4 13:37
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+2
35.5%
Keegan Shoemaker run for 2 yds to the SHSU 24Similar
Q4 13:37
3RD & 6
OWN 24
-8
34.2%
Keegan Shoemaker sacked by Payton Zdroik for a loss of 8 yards to the SHSU 16Similar
Q4 11:34
4TH & 14
OWN 16
0
31.4%
Jadon Cardell punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Dane Kinamon at the AFA 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 17TD
11 plays · 60 yds · 6:2071% → 92%
Q4 11:34
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+7
28.6%
Zac Larrier run for 7 yds to the AFA 47Similar
Q4 11:34
2ND & 3
OWN 47
+4
28.3%
Owen Burk run for 4 yds to the SHSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:34
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
27.8%
Owen Burk run for 4 yds to the SHSU 45Similar
Q4 11:34
2ND & 6
OPP 45
+5
28.0%
Dylan Carson run for 5 yds to the SHSU 40Similar
Q4 11:34
3RD & 1
OPP 40
+1
27.6%
Zac Larrier run for 1 yd to the SHSU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:34
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
27.8%
Dylan Carson run for 3 yds to the SHSU 36Similar
Q4 11:34
2ND & 7
OPP 36
+7
27.4%
Dylan Carson run for 7 yds to the SHSU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:34
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+11
25.8%
Zac Larrier run for 11 yds to the SHSU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:34
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+2
25.8%
Owen Burk run for 2 yds to the SHSU 16Similar
Q4 11:34
2ND & 8
OPP 16
+11
25.8%
John Lee Eldridge III run for 11 yds to the SHSU 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
8.0%
Owen Burk run for 5 yds for a TD (Matthew Dapore KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:329% → 7%
Q4 5:09
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
8.8%
Zach Hrbacek run for no gain to the SHSU 20Similar
Q4 5:09
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+3
8.7%
Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Ife Adeyi for 3 yds to the SHSU 23Similar
Q4 5:09
3RD & 7
OWN 23
0
8.3%
Keegan Shoemaker pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:37
4TH & 7
OWN 23
0
7.2%
Jadon Cardell punt for 53 yds, downed at the AFA 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 19DOWNS
11 plays · 26 yds · 2:0192% → 97%
Q4 3:37
4TH & 4
OPP 48
0
8.4%
Kneel down by LARRIER, Zac at SAM50 (team loss of 2); AFA turnover on downs, clock 03:37.Similar
Q4 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+3
8.1%
Owen Burk run for 3 yds to the AFA 27Similar
Q4 3:21
2ND & 7
OWN 27
+9
7.5%
Owen Burk run for 9 yds to the AFA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:17
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+10
6.8%
Owen Burk run for 10 yds to the AFA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:17
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
6.3%
Owen Burk run for 3 yds to the AFA 49Similar
Q4 1:36
2ND & 4
OPP 48
+2
3.9%
Owen Burk run for 2 yds to the SHSU 46Similar
Q4 1:36
3RD & 2
OPP 46
0
3.4%
Kneel down by LARRIER, Zac at SAM48 (team loss of 2).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 5:14
Owen Burk run for 5 yds for a TD (Matthew Dapore KICK)
-17.8
FG · Q3 6:03
Colby Sessums 45 yd FG GOOD
+7.5
FG · Q4 13:41
Matthew Dapore 42 yd FG GOOD
-6.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com