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Win probability · RUTG
modelRUTG aheadTEM aheadconfidence bandkey playRUTG scoreTEM score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 9:25 · Dante Atton punt for 39 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 3:47: Gavin Wimsatt pass complete to Ja'shon Benjamin for 33 yds for a TD (Jai Patel KICK) — RUTG win probability +4.1 pts (now 71%) (top driver: RUTG has the ball).
- TD · Q4 14:51: E.J. Warner pass complete to Dante Wright for 9 yds for a TD (Camden Price KICK) — TEM win probability +17.7 pts (now 30%) (top driver: TEM has the ball).
- TD · Q4 11:48: Kyle Monangai 1 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed) — RUTG win probability +9.2 pts (now 93%) (top driver: RUTG has the ball).
- FG · Q4 9:57: Jai Patel 23 yd FG GOOD — RUTG win probability +2.3 pts (now 96%) (top driver: RUTG has the ball).
- TD · Q4 5:37: Samuel Brown V run for 1 yd for a TD (Jai Patel KICK) — RUTG win probability +2.2 pts (now 99%) (top driver: RUTG has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
RUTG made the numbers' call on 2 of 6TEM made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
- Q1 14:09TEM 4th & 10 at TEM 25, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 29.3% before the snapGo for it29.3%−0.128% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call29.4%average punt
- Q1 5:18TEM 4th & 10 at TEM 23, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 30.4% before the snapGo for it30.3%−0.428% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call30.7%average punt
- Q1 3:02TEM 4th & 6 at TEM 29, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.0% before the snapGo for it27.1%−0.239% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call27.2%average punt
- Q2 13:31RUTG 4th & 7 at TEM 33, up 7Close callKicked a field goal · 73.0% before the snapGo for it73.0%37% to convertField goalTheir call72.9%−0.149% to makePunt72.5%−0.5average punt
- Q2 11:35TEM 4th & 9 at RUTG 45, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.9% before the snapGo for it25.9%−0.232% to convertField goal25.3%−0.825% to makePuntTheir call26.1%average punt
- Q2 7:22RUTG 4th & 5 at TEM 25, up 10Close callKicked a field goal · 75.8% before the snapGo for it75.7%41% to convertField goalTheir call75.6%−0.166% to makePunt71.7%−3.9average punt
- Q3 12:32RUTG 4th & 9 at RUTG 49, up 13Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.6% before the snapGo for it84.6%−0.532% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call85.1%average punt
- Q3 6:56TEM 4th & 3 at RUTG 3, down 13Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 14.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call15.3%44% to convertField goal14.3%−0.993% to makePunt9.1%−6.2average punt
- Q3 5:37RUTG 4th & 7 at RUTG 6, up 13Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.5% before the snapGo for it86.4%−1.433% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call87.8%average punt
- Q3 4:24TEM 4th & 7 at TEM 42, down 13Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.6% before the snapGo for it12.6%−0.637% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call13.3%average punt
- Q3 2:10RUTG 4th & 4 at RUTG 37, up 13Close callPunted · 90.0% before the snapGo for it90.3%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call90.1%−0.1average punt
- Q4 14:51TEM 4th & 5 at RUTG 9, down 13Close callWent for it · 11.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call10.9%−0.336% to convertField goal11.2%89% to makePunt5.9%−5.4average punt
- Q4 9:57RUTG 4th & 5 at TEM 5, up 12Close callKicked a field goal · 92.6% before the snapGo for it92.1%33% to convertField goalTheir call92.1%−<0.192% to makePunt85.2%−6.9average punt
- Q4 9:25TEM 4th & 9 at TEM 26, down 15Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.0% before the snapGo for it4.5%−0.330% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call4.9%average punt
- Q4 0:40TEM 4th & 2 at RUTG 35, down 29Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.0%−<0.157% to convertField goal0.1%45% to makePunt0.0%−<0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
RUTG made the numbers' call on 3 of 4TEM made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q1 3:47RUTG Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call71.9%97% to makeGo for two71.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 14:51TEM Touchdown, down 7 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call17.2%97% to makeGo for two17.1%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 11:48RUTG Touchdown, up 12 before the tryClose callWent for two · failedKick91.0%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call90.7%−0.345% to convert
- Q4 5:37RUTG Touchdown, up 21 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.4%97% to makeGo for two99.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 2:34RUTG Touchdown, up 28 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartTEMDrive 1PUNT4 plays · 0 yds · 0:5032% → 32%
RUTGDrive 2FUMBLE11 plays · 55 yds · 5:1468% → 67%
Q1 12:10
1ST & 10
50
+7
67.6%
Gavin Wimsatt pass complete to Christian Dremel for 7 yds to the TEM 43Similar
Q1 10:54
3RD & 8
OPP 48
+9
67.4%
Gavin Wimsatt pass complete to JaQuae Jackson for 9 yds to the TEM 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:51
3RD & 9
OPP 21
+15
67.4%
Gavin Wimsatt pass complete to Isaiah Washington for 15 yds Isaiah Washington fumbled, recovered by TEM Yvandy RigbySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 3PUNT8 plays · 17 yds · 3:2133% → 33%
Q1 7:45
3RD & 1
OWN 15
+8
66.7%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Amad Anderson Jr. for 8 yds to the TEM 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:53
3RD & 5
OWN 28
-5
66.3%
WARNER, E.J. pass short up the middle incomplete intended for SAYDEE, Edward thrown to the TEM29; QB hurried by TOURE, Mohamed, clock 05:53. PENALTY Before the snap, TEM Delay Of Game on WARNER, E.J. enforced 5 yards from the TEM23 to the TEM18, from the the spot of the ball when the foul occurred, -5 yards credited to passer and receiver on the play. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 4TD4 plays · 57 yds · 1:3067% → 71%
TEMDrive 5PUNT4 plays · 4 yds · 0:4230% → 30%
RUTGDrive 6FG9 plays · 36 yds · 4:2370% → 71%
Q1 1:59
2ND & 7
OWN 34
+9
70.1%
Gavin Wimsatt pass complete to Aaron Young for 9 yds to the RUTG 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 7PUNT9 plays · 30 yds · 1:5528% → 29%
RUTGDrive 8FG12 plays · 66 yds · 4:0771% → 81%
Q2 9:01
2ND & 20
OWN 9
+61
71.3%
Gavin Wimsatt pass complete to JaQuae Jackson for 61 yds to the TEM 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 9PUNT16 plays · 27 yds · 5:4923% → 20%
Q2 6:40
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+16
77.6%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Dante Wright for 16 yds to the TEM 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:44
2ND & 5
OWN 49
-10
76.2%
WRIGHT, Dante rush to the right for no gain to the TEM49 (TOURE, Mohamed), out of bounds, clock 05:44. PENALTY TEM Holding on SMITH, Jordan enforced 10 yards from the TEM49 to the TEM39 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 5:22
3RD & 15
OWN 39
+16
78.1%
E.J. Warner pass complete to David Martin-Robinson for 16 yds to the RUTG 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:04
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-5
76.0%
WARNER, E.J. pass short up the middle incomplete intended for WRIGHT, Dante broken up by BAILEY, Wesley at the RU40, clock 05:04. PENALTY Before the snap, TEM Illegal Formation enforced 5 yards from the RU45 to the TEM50. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 5:00
1ST & 15
50
+19
77.0%
E.J. Warner pass complete to David Martin-Robinson for 19 yds to the RUTG 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:38
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+7
75.5%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Dante Wright for 7 yds to the RUTG 24Similar
Q2 3:37
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+3
75.5%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Darvon Hubbard for 3 yds to the RUTG 18Similar
Q2 3:03
2ND & 7
OPP 18
-15
75.6%
(03:03) WARNER, E.J. pass to the right incomplete intended for ANDERSON JR., Amad thrown to the RU11, clock 03:00. PENALTY TEM Pass Interference on SMITH, Jordan enforced 15 yards to the RU33 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 2:58
2ND & 22
OPP 33
-15
76.8%
E.J. Warner sacked by Desmond Igbinosun for a loss of 15 yards to the RUTG 48Similar
Q2 2:13
3RD & 37
OPP 48
0
79.2%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Darvon Hubbard for no gain to the RUTG 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 10END OF HALF7 plays · 30 yds · 1:1183% → 86%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 11PUNT6 plays · 14 yds · 2:2783% → 84%
TEMDrive 12DOWNS14 plays · 84 yds · 5:2817% → 16%
Q3 12:21
2ND & 10
OWN 13
+7
83.0%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Reese Clark for 7 yds to the TEM 20Similar
Q3 11:59
3RD & 3
OWN 20
+9
83.5%
(11:59) WARNER, E.J. pass to the left incomplete intended for WRIGHT, Dante broken up by LONGERBEAM, Robert at the TEM27, clock 11:57. PENALTY RU Pass Interference on DIXON, Flip enforced at the spot of the foul for 9 yards to the TEM29 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 11:18
2ND & 8
OWN 31
+9
83.8%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Reese Clark for 9 yds to the TEM 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:38
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+21
83.6%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Dante Wright for 21 yds to the RUTG 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:18
3RD & 8
OPP 25
+21
83.5%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Zae Baines for 21 yds to the RUTG 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 13PUNT4 plays · 3 yds · 1:1287% → 87%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 14PUNT4 plays · 3 yds · 0:5915% → 13%
RUTGDrive 15PUNT8 plays · 24 yds · 2:1089% → 90%
Q3 3:45
3RD & 4
OWN 19
+12
88.6%
Gavin Wimsatt pass complete to Christian Dremel for 12 yds to the RUTG 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:31
3RD & 9
OWN 32
+5
89.5%
WIMSATT, Gavin pass short to the left complete for 5 yards to DREMEL, Christian to the RU37, out of bounds, clock 02:31. PENALTY Before the snap, TEM Illegal Substitution enforced 5 yards from the RU32 to the RU37. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 2:10
4TH & 4
OWN 37
0
89.6%
Flynn Appleby punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Dante Wright at the TEM 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 16TD8 plays · 71 yds · 2:1512% → 30%
Q3 1:35
2ND & 5
OWN 34
+10
87.3%
(01:35) WARNER, E.J. pass to the right incomplete intended for BAINES, Zae thrown to the TEM48, clock 01:32. PENALTY RU Holding on MELTON, Max enforced 10 yards from the TEM34 to the TEM44 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 1:12
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+28
87.1%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Amad Anderson Jr. for 28 yds to the RUTG 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:51
4TH & 5
OPP 9
+9
69.7%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Dante Wright for 9 yds for a TD (Camden Price KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 17TD7 plays · 75 yds · 3:0079% → 93%
Q4 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
78.9%
Gavin Wimsatt pass complete to JaQuae Jackson for 18 yds to the RUTG 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 18INT1 play · 0 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 19FG4 plays · 5 yds · 1:3693% → 96%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 20PUNT4 plays · 1 yds · 0:296% → 5%
RUTGDrive 21TD7 plays · 65 yds · 3:3896% → 99%
Q4 6:25
3RD & 7
OPP 29
+27
96.9%
Gavin Wimsatt pass complete to Samuel Brown V for 27 yds to the TEM 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 22INT2 plays · 0 yds · 0:001% → 1%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 23TD5 plays · 34 yds · 2:5399% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 24Uncategorized8 plays · 60 yds · 1:550% → 0%
Q4 2:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
100.0%
E.J. Warner pass complete to David Martin-Robinson for 4 yds to the TEM 29Similar
Q4 2:07
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+9
100.0%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Darvon Hubbard for 9 yds to the TEM 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+19
100.0%
E.J. Warner pass complete to David Martin-Robinson for 19 yds to the RUTG 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:44
3RD & 10
OPP 43
+8
100.0%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Jordan Smith for 8 yds to the RUTG 35Similar
Q4 0:36
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+15
100.0%
Rutgers Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Thomas Amankwaa) to the RUTG 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 25END OF GAME1 play · -5 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 14:51
E.J. Warner pass complete to Dante Wright for 9 yds for a TD (Camden Price KICK)
-17.7
TD · Q4 11:48
Kyle Monangai 1 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)
+9.2
TD · Q1 3:47
Gavin Wimsatt pass complete to Ja'shon Benjamin for 33 yds for a TD (Jai Patel KICK)
+4.1