2023 · Week 2 · Sep 9, 2023 · Ohio Stadium
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Win probability · OSU
modelOSU aheadYSU aheadconfidence bandkey playOSU scoreYSU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:25 · Beau Brungard pass incomplete to Bryce Oliver
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 7:42: Mitch Davidson run for 1 yd for a TD (Andrew Lastovka KICK) — YSU win probability +0.4 pts (now 1%) (top driver: YSU has the ball).
- PUNT · Q1 2:42: Brendon Kilpatrick punt for 58 yds , Emeka Egbuka returns for no gain to the OSU 7 — YSU win probability +0.4 pts (now 2%) (top driver: Tied - offense's timeout count is neutral here).
- TD · Q2 9:07: TreVeyon Henderson 13 Yd Run (Jayden Fielding Kick) — OSU win probability +0.3 pts (now 98%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 3:06: Kyle McCord pass complete to Emeka Egbuka for 28 yds for a TD (Jayden Fielding KICK) — OSU win probability +1.0 pts (now 99%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 1:40: TreVeyon Henderson run for 30 yds for a TD (Jayden Fielding KICK) — OSU win probability +0.7 pts (now 100%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
OSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 6YSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 7
- Q1 6:03OSU 4th & 11 at OSU 31, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 98.5% before the snapGo for it98.5%−0.226% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call98.6%average punt
- Q1 2:42YSU 4th & 15 at YSU 32, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 1.8% before the snapGo for it1.7%−0.216% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.9%average punt
- Q2 13:58YSU 4th & 10 at YSU 35, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.9% before the snapGo for it1.9%−0.129% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.0%average punt
- Q2 13:58OSU 4th & 7 at YSU 37, up 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call98.1%37% to convertField goal98.1%−<0.140% to makePunt98.1%−0.1average punt
- Q2 7:43YSU 4th & 1 at YSU 37, down 14Close callPunted · 2.0% before the snapGo for it2.0%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.9%−0.1average punt
- Q2 3:06OSU 4th & 2 at YSU 28, up 14Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 97.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call97.7%57% to convertField goal97.5%−0.160% to makePunt97.0%−0.7average punt
- Q2 1:56YSU 4th & 2 at YSU 22, down 21Close callPunted · 1.1% before the snapGo for it1.0%56% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.0%−<0.1average punt
- Q2 0:44OSU 4th & 9 at YSU 49, up 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.1% before the snapGo for it99.0%−<0.132% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.0%average punt
- Q3 5:44OSU 4th & 3 at OSU 27, up 21Close callPunted · 98.9% before the snapGo for it99.0%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.0%−<0.1average punt
- Q3 3:23YSU 4th & 3 at YSU 17, down 21Close callPunted · 0.9% before the snapGo for it1.0%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.0%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 12:32YSU 4th & 18 at OSU 47, down 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.0%−0.113% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 5:27OSU 4th & 5 at YSU 5, up 28Close callWent for it · 99.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.9%−<0.133% to convertField goal99.9%92% to makePunt99.4%−0.4average punt
- Q4 0:25YSU 4th & 5 at YSU 49, down 28Close callWent for it · 0.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.0%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt0.0%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
OSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5YSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q1 13:34OSU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.3%97% to makeGo for two99.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 7:42YSU Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call1.3%97% to makeGo for two1.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 1:20OSU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.3%97% to makeGo for two98.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 9:07OSU Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.2%97% to makeGo for two98.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 3:06OSU Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.1%97% to makeGo for two99.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 1:40OSU Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartOSUDrive 1TD7 plays · 76 yds · 1:2099% → 99%
Q1 14:54
2ND & 1
OWN 33
-10
99.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun Henderson,TreVeyon rush right for 9 yards gain to the OSU42 (Hooker,Marcus), out of bounds PENALTY OSU Holding (Hinzman,Carson) 10 yards from OSU33 to OSU23. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 14:54
2ND & 11
OWN 23
+6
99.3%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Xavier Johnson for 6 yds to the OSU 29Similar
Q1 14:54
2ND & 11
OWN 23
+6
99.3%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Xavier Johnson for 6 yds to the OSU 29Similar
Q1 14:54
2ND & 1
OWN 33
-10
99.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun Henderson,TreVeyon rush right for 9 yards gain to the OSU42 (Hooker,Marcus), out of bounds PENALTY OSU Holding (Hinzman,Carson) 10 yards from OSU33 to OSU23. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 13:34
3RD & 5
OWN 29
+71
99.2%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Marvin Harrison Jr. for 71 yds for a TD (Jayden Fielding KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
YSUDrive 2TD14 plays · 75 yds · 5:521% → 1%
Q1 12:17
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+7
99.1%
Mitch Davidson pass complete to C.J. Charleston for 7 yds to the YSU 44Similar
Q1 10:54
3RD & 3
OWN 44
+36
99.1%
Mitch Davidson pass complete to Max Tomczak for 36 yds to the OSU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:54
3RD & 4
OPP 14
+12
99.0%
Mitch Davidson pass complete to Bryce Oliver for 12 yds to the OSU 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 3PUNT7 plays · -1 yds · 1:3199% → 99%
Q1 7:34
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
98.7%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Marvin Harrison Jr. for 4 yds to the OSU 36Similar
Q1 7:34
2ND & 6
OWN 36
+5
98.7%
Kyle McCord pass complete to TreVeyon Henderson for 5 yds to the OSU 41Similar
Q1 7:34
3RD & 1
OWN 41
-10
98.7%
No Huddle Henderson,TreVeyon rush left for 1 yard loss to the OSU40 (Howard,Alex), out of bounds PENALTY OSU Holding (Simmons,Josh) 10 yards from OSU41 to OSU31. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 6:03
4TH & 11
OWN 31
+3
98.5%
Jesse Mirco punt for 50 yds , Alijah Curtis returns for 3 yds to the YSU 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
YSUDrive 4PUNT6 plays · 10 yds · 3:211% → 2%
Q1 6:03
2ND & 1
OWN 31
+6
98.5%
Mitch Davidson pass complete to Latrell Fordham for 6 yds to the YSU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:03
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
98.5%
Mitch Davidson pass complete to Dra Rushton for 5 yds to the YSU 32Similar
Q1 6:03
2ND & 15
OWN 32
0
98.6%
Mitch Davidson pass complete to Bryce Oliver for no gain to the YSU 32Similar
Q1 2:42
4TH & 15
OWN 32
0
98.2%
Brendon Kilpatrick punt for 58 yds , Emeka Egbuka returns for no gain to the OSU 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 5TD5 plays · 93 yds · 1:2298% → 98%
Q1 2:42
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+15
98.2%
PENALTY YSU UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Johnson,Devin) 15 yards from OSU07 to OSU22, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 2:42
2ND & 3
OWN 29
+8
98.2%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Marvin Harrison Jr. for 8 yds to the OSU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:42
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+24
98.2%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Emeka Egbuka for 24 yds to the YSU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:20
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+39
98.4%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Marvin Harrison Jr. for 39 yds for a TD (Jayden Fielding KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
YSUDrive 6PUNT7 plays · 14 yds · 2:172% → 2%
OSUDrive 7TD14 plays · 60 yds · 4:5198% → 98%
Q2 13:58
2ND & 2
OWN 48
+12
98.2%
Devin Brown pass complete to Julian Fleming for 12 yds to the YSU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:58
4TH & 7
OPP 37
+9
98.1%
Devin Brown pass complete to Gee Scott Jr. for 9 yds to the YSU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:58
2ND & 10
OPP 17
-15
98.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun Henderson,TreVeyon rush middle for 17 yards gain to the YSU00 TOUCHDOWN nullified by penalty, clock 00:00 PENALTY OSU Personal Foul (Simmons,Josh) 15 yards from YSU17 to YSU32. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:58
3RD & 25
OPP 32
+19
98.1%
Devin Brown run for 6 yds to the YSU 26 for a 1ST down Youngstown State Penalty, UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (Greg Benton Jr.) to the YSU 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
YSUDrive 8PUNT6 plays · 9 yds · 1:192% → 2%
Q2 9:02
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+4
98.2%
Mitch Davidson pass complete to Max Tomczak for 4 yds to the YSU 32Similar
Q2 9:02
3RD & 6
OWN 32
+5
98.2%
PENALTY OSU Offside (Williams,Tyleik) 5 yards from YSU32 to YSU37. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:43
4TH & 1
OWN 37
0
98.1%
Brendon Kilpatrick punt for 53 yds, fair catch by Emeka Egbuka at the OSU 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 9TD11 plays · 90 yds · 4:3798% → 99%
Q2 7:43
3RD & 9
OWN 11
+21
98.0%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Marvin Harrison Jr. for 21 yds to the OSU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:43
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+9
98.1%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Marvin Harrison Jr. for 9 yds to the OSU 41Similar
Q2 7:43
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+17
98.2%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Emeka Egbuka for 17 yds to the YSU 36 for a 1ST down Youngstown State Penalty, Defensive Offside (Greg Benton Jr.) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:43
2ND & 11
OPP 37
+8
98.2%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Marvin Harrison Jr. for 8 yds to the YSU 29Similar
Q2 3:06
4TH & 2
OPP 28
+28
99.2%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Emeka Egbuka for 28 yds for a TD (Jayden Fielding KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
YSUDrive 10PUNT8 plays · 8 yds · 1:051% → 1%
OSUDrive 11PUNT5 plays · 14 yds · 1:1299% → 99%
YSUDrive 12END OF HALF2 plays · -2 yds · 0:441% → 1%
YSUDrive 13INT14 plays · 43 yds · 7:361% → 1%
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+13
98.9%
Mitch Davidson pass complete to Max Tomczak for 13 yds to the YSU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
98.9%
Mitch Davidson pass complete to Bryce Oliver for 5 yds to the YSU 46Similar
Q3 12:10
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-7
98.9%
Mitch Davidson sacked by Tommy Eichenberg for a loss of 7 yards to the YSU 45 Mitch Davidson fumbled, recovered by YSU Brandan Serrano , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q3 12:10
2ND & 22
OWN 40
+14
99.0%
Mitch Davidson pass complete to Bryce Oliver for 14 yds to the OSU 46Similar
Q3 12:10
3RD & 8
OPP 46
+12
98.9%
Beau Brungard pass complete to Latrell Fordham for 12 yds to the OSU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:10
2ND & 8
OPP 32
0
98.8%
Beau Brungard pass complete to Jake Benio for no gain to the OSU 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 14PUNT4 plays · 7 yds · 1:4099% → 99%
YSUDrive 15PUNT4 plays · 7 yds · 2:211% → 1%
Q3 3:23
4TH & 3
OWN 17
0
99.1%
Brendon Kilpatrick punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Emeka Egbuka at the OSU 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 16TD5 plays · 61 yds · 1:4399% → 100%
Q3 3:23
3RD & 7
OWN 42
+8
99.2%
Devin Brown pass complete to Julian Fleming for 8 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:23
1ST & 10
50
+20
99.2%
Devin Brown pass complete to Carnell Tate for 20 yds to the YSU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:40
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+30
99.9%
TreVeyon Henderson run for 30 yds for a TD (Jayden Fielding KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
YSUDrive 17PUNT9 plays · 28 yds · 4:080% → 0%
Q3 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
99.9%
Mitch Davidson pass complete to Bryce Oliver for 1 yd to the YSU 26Similar
Q3 1:40
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+15
99.9%
Ohio State Penalty, Personal Foul (Ja'Had Carter) to the YSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:32
4TH & 18
OPP 47
0
99.9%
Brendon Kilpatrick punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Emeka Egbuka at the OSU 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 18DOWNS16 plays · 81 yds · 7:05100% → 100%
Q4 12:32
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-2
99.9%
Devin Brown sacked by Chris Fitzgerald for a loss of 2 yards to the OSU 18 Devin Brown fumbled, recovered by OSU Devin Brown , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q4 12:32
2ND & 12
OWN 18
+5
99.9%
PENALTY YSU Offside (Allen,Hunter) 5 yards from OSU18 to OSU23. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:32
3RD & 4
OWN 26
+27
99.9%
Devin Brown pass complete to Miyan Williams for 27 yds to the YSU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:32
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+15
99.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun Brown,Devin pass incomplete deep left to Harrison Jr.,Marvin PENALTY YSU Pass Interference (Robinson,Amarian) 15 yards from YSU47 to YSU32, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:32
2ND & 9
OPP 31
+14
99.9%
Devin Brown pass complete to Emeka Egbuka for 14 yds to the YSU 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-10
99.9%
No Huddle Williams,Miyan rush left for 4 yards gain to the YSU00 TOUCHDOWN nullified by penalty, clock 00:00 PENALTY OSU Holding (Trayanum,DeaMonte) 10 yards from YSU04 to YSU14. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:32
2ND & GOAL
OPP 16
+11
99.9%
Devin Brown pass complete to Emeka Egbuka for 11 yds to the YSU 5Similar
Q4 5:27
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
-5
100.0%
Devin Brown sacked by Alex Howard for a loss of 5 yards to the YSU 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
YSUDrive 19DOWNS10 plays · 39 yds · 5:020% → 0%
Q4 5:27
2ND & 7
OWN 13
+2
100.0%
Beau Brungard pass complete to Da'Shaun Whatley for 2 yds to the YSU 15Similar
Q4 5:27
3RD & 5
OWN 15
+5
100.0%
Beau Brungard pass complete to Latrell Fordham for 5 yds to the YSU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:27
3RD & 4
OWN 26
+18
100.0%
Beau Brungard pass complete to Daryan Bowling for 18 yds to the YSU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 20END OF GAME1 play · 4 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 3:06
Kyle McCord pass complete to Emeka Egbuka for 28 yds for a TD (Jayden Fielding KICK)
+1
TD · Q3 1:40
TreVeyon Henderson run for 30 yds for a TD (Jayden Fielding KICK)
+0.7
TD · Q1 7:42
Mitch Davidson run for 1 yd for a TD (Andrew Lastovka KICK)
-0.4