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MTSU

Middle Tennessee 19 at Missouri 23

MIZ
2023 · Week 2 · Sep 9, 2023 · Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · MIZ
modelMIZ aheadMTSU aheadconfidence bandkey playMIZ scoreMTSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDFGFGTDTDTDSAFETYEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 2:32 · Trey Turk punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Luther Burden III at the MIZ 18
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+44.5+22.30−22.3−44.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 100Pregame prior+17.6Home team on offense+5.9Garbage-time factor+0.2Score differential+0.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.2Blowout margin+0.9
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q3 8:39: Zeke Rankin 25 yd FG GOOD — MTSU win probability +6.6 pts (now 24%) (top driver: MTSU has the ball).
  2. FG · Q3 2:32: Nicholas Vattiato pass incomplete — MTSU win probability +8.8 pts (now 33%) (top driver: MTSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 14:53: Brady Cook pass complete to Nathaniel Peat for 49 yds for a TD (Harrison Mevis KICK) — MIZ win probability +9.3 pts (now 96%) (top driver: MIZ has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 6:57: Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Justin Olson for 13 yds for a TD (Zeke Rankin KICK) — MTSU win probability +13.1 pts (now 20%) (top driver: MTSU has the ball).
  5. SAFETY · Q4 6:07: Team Safety — MTSU win probability +6.5 pts (now 18%) (top driver: MIZ has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MIZ made the numbers' call on 2 of 5MTSU made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
  1. Q1 12:51MIZ 4th & 14 at MIZ 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.3%−0.2
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:57MTSU 4th & 6 at MTSU 38, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.8%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.8%
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:40MIZ 4th & 3 at midfield, tied
    Close callPunted · 89.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.8%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 9:19MTSU 4th & 10 at MTSU 17, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.4%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.5%
    average punt
  5. Q1 5:21MIZ 4th & 17 at MTSU 21, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 88.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.7%−0.3
    13% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    87.9%
    74% to make
    Punt
    87.3%−0.7
    average punt
  6. Q1 3:28MTSU 4th & 22 at MTSU 37, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.2%−0.5
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.7%
    average punt
  7. Q1 0:31MIZ 4th & 2 at MIZ 41, up 3
    Close callPunted · 86.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.8%−0.1
    average punt
  8. Q3 15:00MTSU 4th & 7 at MIZ 32, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 19.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    18.6%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    18.6%−0.1
    51% to make
    Punt
    18.1%−0.5
    average punt
  9. Q3 8:39MTSU 4th & 7 at MIZ 7, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 22.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.1%−0.5
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    21.5%
    91% to make
    Punt
    14.2%−7.3
    average punt
  10. Q3 2:32MTSU 4th & 12 at MTSU 38, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.2%−2.0
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.2%
    average punt
  11. Q4 13:44MTSU 4th & 6 at MTSU 29, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.8%−0.2
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.0%
    average punt
  12. Q4 10:27MIZ 4th & 1 at MTSU 44, up 13
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.1 ptsPunted · 95.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    91.7%−3.1
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    92.7%−2.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 6:57MTSU 4th & 13 at MIZ 13, down 13
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.3 ptsWent for it · 6.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.3%−1.3
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    6.6%
    85% to make
    Punt
    3.4%−3.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 3:22MTSU 4th & 8 at MIZ 42, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 23.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    19.6%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    18.3%−1.4
    30% to make
    Punt
    15.7%−4.0
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MIZ made the numbers' call on 3 of 3MTSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q2 8:14MTSU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    20.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    20.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 0:24MIZ Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 4:58MIZ Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    82.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 14:53MIZ Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 6:57MTSU Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    11.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    11.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MIZDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 2:0994% → 94%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
94.2%
Cody Schrader run for 7 yds to the MIZ 32Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+5
94.2%
Cody Schrader run for 5 yds to the MIZ 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
94.2%
Brady Cook pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 37
0
94.2%
Brady Cook pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 37
-4
94.2%
Brady Cook sacked by Drew Francis for a loss of 4 yards to the MIZ 33Similar
Q1 12:51
4TH & 14
OWN 33
0
93.7%
Riley Williams punt for 33 yds, downed at the MTSU 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:546% → 6%
Q1 12:51
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+4
93.7%
Frank Peasant run for 4 yds to the MTSU 38Similar
Q1 12:51
2ND & 6
OWN 38
0
93.7%
Frank Peasant run for no gain to the MTSU 38Similar
Q1 12:51
3RD & 6
OWN 38
0
93.7%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:57
4TH & 6
OWN 38
0
93.6%
Miles Tillman punt for 19 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:1794% → 93%
Q1 11:57
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+1
93.6%
Cody Schrader run for 1 yd to the MIZ 44Similar
Q1 11:57
2ND & 9
OWN 44
+6
93.6%
Brady Cook pass complete to Mekhi Miller for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 11:57
3RD & 3
50
0
93.6%
Brady Cook pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:40
4TH & 3
50
0
93.2%
Riley Williams punt for 33 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:217% → 7%
Q1 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-6
93.2%
Frank Peasant run for a loss of 6 yards to the MTSU 11Similar
Q1 10:40
2ND & 16
OWN 11
+6
93.2%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Holden Willis for 6 yds to the MTSU 17Similar
Q1 10:40
3RD & 10
OWN 17
0
93.2%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:19
4TH & 10
OWN 17
0
93.0%
Trey Turk punt for 51 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 5FG
10 plays · 34 yds · 3:5893% → 92%
Q1 9:19
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+11
93.0%
Nathaniel Peat run for 11 yds to the MTSU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:19
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+15
93.1%
Nathaniel Peat run for 15 yds to the MTSU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:19
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+7
93.1%
Nathaniel Peat run for 7 yds to the MTSU 22Similar
Q1 9:19
2ND & 3
OPP 22
+8
93.1%
Nathaniel Peat run for 8 yds to the MTSU 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:19
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+4
93.1%
Nathaniel Peat run for 4 yds to the MTSU 10Similar
Q1 9:19
2ND & 6
OPP 10
-10
93.1%
SCHRADER, Cody rush to the left for a gain of 5 yards to the MTS5 (WOODS, Shakai). PENALTY MIZ Holding on JOHNSON, Cam'Ron enforced 10 yards from the MTS10 to the MTS20 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 9:19
2ND & 16
OPP 20
-5
93.0%
Missouri Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MTSU 25Similar
Q1 9:19
2ND & 21
OPP 25
+14
93.0%
Brady Cook pass complete to Luther Burden III for 14 yds to the MTSU 11Similar
Q1 9:19
3RD & 7
OPP 11
-10
93.0%
Brady Cook sacked by Drew Francis for a loss of 10 yards to the MTSU 21Similar
Q1 5:21
4TH & 17
OPP 21
+38
91.9%
Harrison Mevis 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 12 yds · 1:538% → 8%
Q1 5:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+24
92.1%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Jeremy Tate Jr. for 24 yds to the MTSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:21
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+1
91.8%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Jeremy Tate Jr. for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 5:21
2ND & 9
50
0
91.8%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:21
3RD & 9
50
-13
92.0%
Nicholas Vattiato sacked by Nyles Gaddy for a loss of 13 yards to the MTSU 37Similar
Q1 3:28
4TH & 22
OWN 37
0
91.9%
Miles Tillman punt for 63 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 21 yds · 2:5792% → 91%
Q1 3:28
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
91.5%
Brady Cook run for 6 yds to the MIZ 26Similar
Q1 3:28
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+7
91.5%
Cody Schrader run for 7 yds to the MIZ 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:28
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
91.5%
Brady Cook pass complete to Luther Burden III for 5 yds to the MIZ 38Similar
Q1 3:28
2ND & 5
OWN 38
-1
91.8%
Cody Schrader run for a loss of 1 yard to the MIZ 37Similar
Q1 3:28
3RD & 6
OWN 37
+4
91.5%
Brady Cook pass complete to Mekhi Miller for 4 yds to the MIZ 41Similar
Q1 0:31
4TH & 2
OWN 41
0
90.5%
Riley Williams punt for 45 yds, downed at the MTSU 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 8TD
14 plays · 86 yds · 6:4610% → 17%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+1
90.5%
Nicholas Vattiato run for 1 yd to the MTSU 15Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 15
-3
90.6%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Frank Peasant for a loss of 3 yards to the MTSU 12Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 12
OWN 12
+13
90.8%
Nicholas Vattiato run for 13 yds to the MTSU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
90.5%
Frank Peasant run for a loss of 2 yards to the MTSU 23Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+11
90.5%
Nicholas Vattiato run for 11 yds to the MTSU 34Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+1
90.3%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to AJ Toney for 1 yd to the MTSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
90.3%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Kalani Norris for 6 yds to the MTSU 41Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+26
90.0%
Nicholas Vattiato run for 11 yds to the MIZ 48 for a 1ST down Missouri Penalty, Face mask (15 yards) (Kris Abrams-Draine) to the MIZ 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+7
89.7%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Elijah Metcalf for 7 yds to the MIZ 26Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 26
-2
89.6%
Nicholas Vattiato sacked by Nyles Gaddy for a loss of 2 yards to the MIZ 28Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 28
+25
89.9%
Frank Peasant run for 25 yds to the MIZ 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
89.6%
Nicholas Vattiato run for no gain to the MIZ 3Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
89.6%
Jaiden Credle run for no gain to the MIZ 3Similar
Q2 8:14
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
83.3%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Kalani Norris for 3 yds for a TD (Zeke Rankin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 9TD
17 plays · 71 yds · 7:4585% → 86%
Q2 8:09
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+9
84.5%
Brady Cook pass complete to Luther Burden III for 9 yds to the MIZ 38Similar
Q2 8:09
2ND & 1
OWN 38
0
85.6%
Nathaniel Peat run for no gain to the MIZ 38Similar
Q2 8:09
3RD & 1
OWN 38
+6
85.2%
Nathaniel Peat run for 6 yds to the MIZ 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:09
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-1
85.5%
Brady Cook sacked by Quindarius Dunnigan for a loss of 1 yard to the MIZ 43Similar
Q2 8:09
2ND & 11
OWN 43
0
84.9%
Nathaniel Peat run for no gain to the MIZ 43Similar
Q2 8:09
3RD & 11
OWN 43
+19
84.3%
Brady Cook pass complete to Luther Burden III for 19 yds to the MTSU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:09
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+2
85.8%
Cody Schrader run for 2 yds to the MTSU 36Similar
Q2 8:09
2ND & 8
OPP 36
0
85.8%
Cody Schrader run for no gain to the MTSU 36Similar
Q2 3:22
3RD & 8
OPP 36
+5
82.3%
COOK, Brady pass to the left incomplete intended for COOPER, Mookie thrown to the MTS24. PENALTY Before the snap, MTS Illegal Substitution enforced 5 yards from the MTS36 to the MTS31. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 3:22
3RD & 3
OPP 31
+5
82.5%
Brady Cook run for 5 yds to the MTSU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:22
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+8
83.3%
Cody Schrader run for 8 yds to the MTSU 18Similar
Q2 3:22
2ND & 2
OPP 18
+2
83.3%
Brady Cook run for 2 yds to the MTSU 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:22
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+1
83.3%
Cody Schrader run for 1 yd to the MTSU 15Similar
Q2 3:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-1
83.3%
Cody Schrader run for a loss of 1 yard to the MTSU 3Similar
Q2 0:33
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
81.4%
Brady Cook run for 2 yds to the MTSU 1Similar
Q2 0:24
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
86.3%
Brady Cook run for 1 yd for a TD (Harrison Mevis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 10END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0016% → 16%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
84.4%
Nicholas Vattiato sacked by Sidney Williams for a loss of 1 yard to the MTSU 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 11FG
14 plays · 68 yds · 12:2815% → 33%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
84.8%
Frank Peasant run for 16 yds to the MTSU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+14
83.6%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Jeremy Tate Jr. for 14 yds to the MIZ 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+10
83.0%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Justin Olson for 10 yds to the MIZ 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 11
OPP 36
+4
83.6%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Jeremy Tate Jr. for 4 yds to the MIZ 32Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 12
OPP 20
+17
83.4%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Jaiden Credle for 17 yds to the MIZ 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
82.2%
Frank Peasant run for 1 yd to the MIZ 2Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-6
82.4%
Frank Peasant run for a loss of 6 yards to the MIZ 41Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 16
OPP 41
+5
83.8%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Elijah Metcalf for 5 yds to the MIZ 36Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 7
OPP 32
+14
84.2%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Justin Olson for 14 yds to the MIZ 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+1
82.2%
Nicholas Vattiato run for 1 yd to the MIZ 17Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 17
-3
82.2%
Nicholas Vattiato run for a loss of 3 yards to the MIZ 20Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
-5
82.2%
Nicholas Vattiato sacked by Daylan Carnell for a loss of 5 yards to the MIZ 7Similar
Q3 8:39
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+25
75.6%
Zeke Rankin 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
Q3 2:32
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
0
66.9%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 12TD
8 plays · 80 yds · 3:3579% → 87%
Q3 8:33
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
78.6%
Brady Cook pass complete to Luther Burden III for 7 yds to the MIZ 27Similar
Q3 8:33
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+10
79.2%
Cody Schrader run for 10 yds to the MIZ 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:33
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+44
79.4%
Brady Cook pass complete to Luther Burden III for 44 yds to the MTSU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:33
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+5
82.0%
Cody Schrader run for 5 yds to the MTSU 14Similar
Q3 8:33
2ND & 5
OPP 14
+6
82.0%
Middle Tennessee Penalty, Face mask (6 yards) (Drew Francis) to the MTSU 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
82.0%
Cody Schrader run for 1 yd to the MTSU 3Similar
Q3 8:33
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
-2
82.0%
Cody Schrader run for a loss of 2 yards to the MTSU 5Similar
Q3 4:58
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
86.9%
Brady Cook pass complete to Theo Wease Jr. for 5 yds for a TD (Harrison Mevis PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 13PUNT
7 plays · 13 yds · 2:2617% → 16%
Q3 4:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
83.4%
Frank Peasant run for 1 yd to the MTSU 26Similar
Q3 4:58
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
83.4%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:58
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+14
84.2%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Justin Olson for 14 yds to the MTSU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:58
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-1
82.0%
Frank Peasant run for a loss of 1 yard to the MTSU 39Similar
Q3 4:58
2ND & 11
OWN 39
-1
82.8%
Frank Peasant run for a loss of 1 yard to the MTSU 38Similar
Q3 4:58
3RD & 12
OWN 38
0
83.7%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:32
4TH & 12
OWN 38
0
83.6%
Trey Turk punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Luther Burden III at the MIZ 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 14TD
7 plays · 82 yds · 2:3986% → 96%
Q3 2:32
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+1
85.9%
Brady Cook run for 1 yd to the MIZ 19Similar
Q3 2:32
2ND & 9
OWN 19
0
85.8%
Brady Cook pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:32
3RD & 9
OWN 19
+13
84.9%
Brady Cook pass complete to Jayden Jernigan for 13 yds to the MIZ 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:32
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
86.2%
Brady Cook pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:32
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+5
86.0%
Cody Schrader run for 5 yds to the MIZ 37Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 5
OWN 37
+14
86.2%
Brady Cook pass complete to Luther Burden III for 14 yds to the MTSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+49
95.5%
Brady Cook pass complete to Nathaniel Peat for 49 yds for a TD (Harrison Mevis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:097% → 6%
Q4 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
93.5%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to DJ England-Chisolm for 1 yd to the MTSU 26Similar
Q4 14:53
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+3
93.5%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Holden Willis for 3 yds to the MTSU 29Similar
Q4 14:53
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
93.3%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:44
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
93.9%
Miles Tillman punt for 39 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 22 yds · 3:1795% → 95%
Q4 13:44
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+4
95.4%
Cody Schrader run for 4 yds to the MIZ 38Similar
Q4 13:44
2ND & 6
OWN 38
+9
95.7%
Brady Cook run for 9 yds to the MIZ 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:44
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
95.7%
Brady Cook pass complete to Luther Burden III for 5 yds to the MTSU 48Similar
Q4 13:44
2ND & 5
OPP 48
+4
95.7%
Cody Schrader run for 4 yds to the MTSU 44Similar
Q4 13:44
3RD & 1
OPP 44
0
95.6%
Brady Cook run for no gain to the MTSU 44Similar
Q4 10:27
4TH & 1
OPP 44
0
95.4%
Riley Williams punt for 28 yds, downed at the MTSU 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 17TD
13 plays · 84 yds · 3:306% → 20%
Q4 10:27
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+16
94.4%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Javonte Sherman for 16 yds to the MTSU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:27
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
93.8%
Jaiden Credle run for 5 yds to the MTSU 37Similar
Q4 10:27
2ND & 5
OWN 37
0
93.6%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:27
3RD & 5
OWN 37
+17
93.7%
Nicholas Vattiato run for 17 yds to the MIZ 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:27
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
93.4%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:27
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+4
93.3%
Nicholas Vattiato run for 4 yds to the MIZ 42Similar
Q4 10:27
3RD & 6
OPP 42
+37
93.5%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Elijah Metcalf for 37 yds to the MIZ 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-3
92.6%
Jaiden Credle run for a loss of 3 yards to the MIZ 8Similar
Q4 7:11
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
92.0%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:11
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
0
92.7%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:57
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
-5
93.4%
VATTIATO, Nicholas pass up the middle incomplete intended for METCALF, Elijah broken up by CARLIES, Jaylon at the MIZ0, clock 06:57. PENALTY Before the snap, MTS False Start on PORCHER, Sterling enforced 5 yards from the MIZ8 to the MIZ13. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 6:57
4TH & GOAL
OPP 13
+13
80.3%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Justin Olson for 13 yds for a TD (Zeke Rankin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 18SF
2 plays · -14 yds · 0:4588% → 82%
Q4 6:52
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+2
88.3%
Cody Schrader run for 2 yds to the MIZ 16Similar
Q4 6:07
2ND & 8
OWN 16
0
81.8%
Team SafetySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 19DOWNS
8 plays · 15 yds · 2:4030% → 25%
Q4 6:02
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
69.8%
Frank Peasant run for 2 yds to the MTSU 45Similar
Q4 6:02
2ND & 8
OWN 45
0
68.9%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:02
3RD & 8
OWN 45
+11
71.5%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Elijah Metcalf for 11 yds to the MIZ 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:02
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
67.1%
Frank Peasant run for 2 yds to the MIZ 42Similar
Q4 6:02
2ND & 8
OPP 42
0
67.4%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:02
3RD & 8
OPP 42
-10
68.2%
Middle Tennessee Penalty, Offensive Holding (Jacqui Graham) to the MTSU 48Similar
Q4 6:02
3RD & 18
OWN 48
+10
73.8%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Elijah Metcalf for 10 yds to the MIZ 42Similar
Q4 3:22
4TH & 8
OPP 42
0
75.3%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 20END OF 4TH QUARTER
13 plays · -3 yds · 3:1489% → 96%
Q4 3:14
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
88.8%
Cody Schrader run for 3 yds to the MIZ 45Similar
Q4 3:14
2ND & 7
OWN 45
+6
89.7%
Cody Schrader run for 6 yds to the MTSU 49Similar
Q4 2:58
3RD & 1
OPP 49
-5
89.1%
Missouri Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MIZ 46Similar
Q4 2:58
3RD & 6
OWN 46
-15
90.6%
COOK, Brady pass to the left complete for 33 yards to WEASE, Theo caught at the MTS46 and advanced to the MTS21 (BRUMFIELD, Sam). PENALTY MIZ Pass Interference on BURDEN, Luther enforced 15 yards to the MIZ31 [NH]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 2:58
3RD & 21
OWN 31
+15
88.9%
COOK, Brady pass deep to the right incomplete intended for WEASE, Theo thrown to the MTS37. PENALTY MTS Pass Interference on ROSS, Teldrick enforced 15 yards to the MIZ46 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NH]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 2:49
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
91.5%
Cody Schrader run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 2:49
2ND & 6
50
+7
91.5%
Cody Schrader run for 7 yds to the MTSU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:49
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-11
91.7%
Brady Cook sacked by Damonte Smith for a loss of 11 yards to the MIZ 46Similar
Q4 2:49
2ND & 21
OWN 46
0
90.6%
[NH] Kneel down by MIZ at MIZ40 (team loss of 6).Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 27
OWN 40
0
95.8%
[NH] Kneel down by MIZ at MIZ39 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 6:57
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Justin Olson for 13 yds for a TD (Zeke Rankin KICK)
-13.1
TD · Q4 14:53
Brady Cook pass complete to Nathaniel Peat for 49 yds for a TD (Harrison Mevis KICK)
+9.3
FG · Q3 2:32
Nicholas Vattiato pass incomplete
-8.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com