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ARIZ

Arizona 24 at Mississippi State 31

MSST
2023 · Week 2 · Sep 9, 2023 · Davis Wade Stadium
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Win probability · MSST
modelMSST aheadARIZ aheadconfidence bandkey playMSST scoreARIZ score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4OTTDTDTDTDTDTDFGFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 12:54 · Jayden de Laura pass complete to Jacob Cowing for 1 yd to the ARIZ 30 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+21.5+10.80−10.8−21.5Q1Q2Q3Q4OTPlay 118Pregame prior+4.5Home team on offense+10.2Score differential+2.5Garbage-time factor+2.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.4Time remaining+2.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:02: Jayden de Laura run for 1 yd for a TD (Tyler Loop KICK) — ARIZ win probability +12.2 pts (now 28%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  2. TD · Q3 6:34: Jayden de Laura pass complete to Jacob Cowing for 17 yds for a TD (Tyler Loop KICK) — ARIZ win probability +11.7 pts (now 29%) (top driver: ARIZ has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 9:14: Jayden de Laura pass complete to Tetairoa McMillan for 11 yds for a TD (Tyler Loop KICK) — ARIZ win probability +26.4 pts (now 50%) (top driver: ARIZ has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 0:05: Tyler Loop 36 yd FG GOOD — ARIZ win probability +21.8 pts (now 56%) (top driver: ARIZ has the ball).
  5. TD · OT 0:00: Will Rogers pass complete to Jeffery Pittman for 29 yds for a TD (Kyle Ferrie KICK) — MSST win probability +22.1 pts (now 86%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MSST made the numbers' call on 6 of 8ARIZ made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 8:59MSST 4th & 4 at ARIZ 4, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 72.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    72.4%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    72.3%−0.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    71.5%−0.9
    average punt
  2. Q1 0:11MSST 4th & 4 at ARIZ 46, up 14
    Close callPunted · 79.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    78.7%−1.5
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    79.6%−0.5
    average punt
  3. Q2 7:28ARIZ 4th & 2 at MSST 22, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 19.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    19.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    19.0%−0.7
    72% to make
    Punt
    15.3%−4.3
    average punt
  4. Q2 2:16MSST 4th & 2 at ARIZ 26, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 83.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    83.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    83.0%−0.6
    64% to make
    Punt
    79.9%−3.7
    average punt
  5. Q2 0:44MSST 4th & 19 at ARIZ 23, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 84.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.1%−1.7
    10% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    84.8%
    70% to make
    Punt
    81.0%−3.8
    average punt
  6. Q3 13:13ARIZ 4th & 14 at ARIZ 18, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.6%−2.4
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.0%
    average punt
  7. Q3 4:08MSST 4th & 1 at MSST 30, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.7 ptsPunted · 79.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.3%−2.7
    average punt
  8. Q3 1:22ARIZ 4th & 7 at MSST 46, down 7
    Close callPunted · 20.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.6%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    19.4%−2.2
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    21.6%−<0.1
    average punt
  9. Q4 12:54MSST 4th & 15 at MSST 43, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.4%−3.5
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.9%
    average punt
  10. Q4 12:54ARIZ 4th & 1 at ARIZ 29, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 17.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    19.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    15.8%−3.3
    average punt
  11. Q4 6:47MSST 4th & 5 at ARIZ 18, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 61.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.7%−0.6
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    59.3%
    79% to make
    Punt
    39.3%−20.0
    average punt
  12. Q4 2:43MSST 4th & 9 at MSST 39, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.6%−1.7
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.3%
    average punt
  13. Q4 0:05ARIZ 4th & 2 at MSST 19, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 25.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.6%−12.9
    56% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    34.5%
    77% to make
    Punt
    7.9%−26.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MSST made the numbers' call on 3 of 3ARIZ made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 5:06MSST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 3:27MSST Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:02ARIZ Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    21.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    21.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 11:07MSST Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 6:34ARIZ Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    18.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    18.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 9:14ARIZ Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    38.0%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.1%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MSSTDrive 1FUMBLE
14 plays · 75 yds · 6:0171% → 70%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
70.8%
Jo'Quavious Marks run for 8 yds to the MSST 33Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+14
70.8%
Jo'Quavious Marks run for 14 yds to the MSST 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+8
70.8%
Simeon Price run for 8 yds to the ARIZ 45Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 45
+6
70.8%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'Quavious Marks for 6 yds to the ARIZ 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-5
70.8%
Mississippi State Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the ARIZ 44Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 15
OPP 44
0
70.8%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 15
OPP 44
+15
70.8%
Seth Davis run for 15 yds to the ARIZ 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
70.8%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+4
70.8%
Jo'Quavious Marks run for 4 yds to the ARIZ 25Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 25
0
70.8%
ROGERS, Will pass deep to the right incomplete intended for MOSLEY, Jordan thrown to the ARI1. PENALTY ARI Pass Interference on TAYLOR, Isaiah enforced half the distance from the goal, 14 yards to the ARI11 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-1
70.8%
Will Rogers pass complete to Lideatrick Griffin for a loss of 1 yard to the ARIZ 11Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
0
70.8%
Jo'Quavious Marks run for no gain to the ARIZ 11Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 11
+7
70.8%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'Quavious Marks for 7 yds to the ARIZ 4Similar
Q1 8:59
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
70.2%
Will Rogers pass complete to Justin Robinson for 4 yds Justin Robinson fumbled, recovered by ARIZSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 2INT
4 plays · 34 yds · 2:0030% → 32%
Q1 8:59
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
69.7%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Michael Wiley for 8 yds to the ARIZ 28Similar
Q1 8:59
2ND & 2
OWN 28
+15
69.5%
Mississippi State Penalty, Personal Foul (Esaias Furdge) to the ARIZ 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:59
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+5
69.2%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Michael Wiley for 5 yds to the MSST 46Similar
Q1 6:59
2ND & 5
OPP 46
0
68.5%
Jayden de Laura pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 3TD
4 plays · 50 yds · 1:5370% → 73%
Q1 6:59
1ST & 10
50
+21
70.1%
Jo'Quavious Marks run for 21 yds to the ARIZ 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:59
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+1
70.3%
Jo'Quavious Marks run for 1 yd to the ARIZ 28Similar
Q1 6:59
2ND & 9
OPP 28
+5
70.3%
Jo'Quavious Marks run for 5 yds to the ARIZ 23Similar
Q1 5:06
3RD & 4
OPP 23
+23
73.0%
Will Rogers pass complete to Lideatrick Griffin for 23 yds for a TD (Kyle Ferrie KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 4INT
3 plays · 1 yds · 1:1728% → 27%
Q1 5:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
72.2%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Jacob Cowing for a loss of 1 yard to the ARIZ 24Similar
Q1 5:06
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+2
72.3%
Michael Wiley run for 2 yds to the ARIZ 26Similar
Q1 3:49
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
72.7%
Jayden de Laura pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 5TD
2 plays · 6 yds · 0:2274% → 78%
Q1 3:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
73.5%
Jo'Quavious Marks run for 5 yds to the ARIZ 1Similar
Q1 3:27
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
77.5%
Jo'Quavious Marks run for 1 yd for a TD (Kyle Ferrie KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 6INT
3 plays · 6 yds · 1:1524% → 24%
Q1 3:21
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
76.1%
DJ Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the ARIZ 19Similar
Q1 3:21
2ND & 11
OWN 19
+7
76.2%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Michael Wiley for 7 yds to the ARIZ 26Similar
Q1 2:06
3RD & 4
OWN 26
0
76.1%
Jayden de Laura pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:5578% → 78%
Q1 2:06
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-2
78.0%
Lideatrick Griffin run for a loss of 2 yards to the MSST 46Similar
Q1 2:06
2ND & 12
OWN 46
+6
77.7%
Jo'Quavious Marks run for 6 yds to the ARIZ 48Similar
Q1 2:06
3RD & 6
OPP 48
+2
77.7%
Jo'Quavious Marks run for 2 yds to the ARIZ 46Similar
Q1 0:11
4TH & 4
OPP 46
0
78.2%
Andrew Osteen punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Jacob Cowing at the ARIZ 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 8FUMBLE
20 plays · 76 yds · 9:1723% → 20%
Q1 0:11
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+2
77.3%
Michael Wiley run for 2 yds to the ARIZ 8Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 8
+8
77.4%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Montana Lemonious-Craig for 8 yds to the ARIZ 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+2
76.9%
Michael Wiley run for 2 yds to the ARIZ 18Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 18
+8
77.0%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Michael Wiley for 8 yds to the ARIZ 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+8
76.9%
Michael Wiley run for 8 yds to the ARIZ 34Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 34
+3
76.4%
Michael Wiley run for 3 yds to the ARIZ 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
76.7%
Rayshon Luke run for 2 yds to the ARIZ 39Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 39
0
76.6%
Jayden de Laura pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 39
+10
76.8%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Jonah Coleman for 10 yds to the ARIZ 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+7
76.3%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Tetairoa McMillan for 7 yds to the MSST 44Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 44
+1
76.0%
Jonah Coleman run for 1 yd to the MSST 43Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 43
+13
76.0%
Jayden de Laura run for 13 yds to the MSST 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-3
75.7%
Michael Wiley run for a loss of 3 yards to the MSST 33Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 13
OPP 33
+11
76.1%
Jayden de Laura run for 11 yds to the MSST 22Similar
Q2 7:28
3RD & 2
OPP 22
0
79.7%
Jayden de Laura pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:28
4TH & 2
OPP 22
+8
79.9%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Michael Wiley for 8 yds to the MSST 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:28
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+6
79.1%
Michael Wiley run for 6 yds to the MSST 8Similar
Q2 7:28
2ND & 4
OPP 8
+2
79.1%
Michael Wiley run for 2 yds to the MSST 6Similar
Q2 5:54
3RD & 2
OPP 6
-12
80.3%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Jacob Cowing for a loss of 12 yards Jacob Cowing fumbled, recovered by MSST Hunter WashingtonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 9MISSED FG
16 plays · 36 yds · 5:1083% → 85%
Q2 5:54
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+6
83.1%
Jo'Quavious Marks run for 6 yds to the MSST 47Similar
Q2 5:54
2ND & 4
OWN 47
+3
83.1%
Jo'Quavious Marks run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 5:54
3RD & 1
50
-5
82.8%
Mississippi State Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MSST 45Similar
Q2 5:54
3RD & 6
OWN 45
+15
82.6%
Arizona Penalty, Personal Foul (Justin Flowe) to the ARIZ 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:54
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
83.2%
Jo'Quavious Marks run for no gain to the ARIZ 34Similar
Q2 5:54
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+5
83.1%
Jo'Quavious Marks run for 5 yds to the ARIZ 29Similar
Q2 2:16
3RD & 5
OPP 29
+3
83.8%
Jeffery Pittman run for 3 yds to the ARIZ 26Similar
Q2 2:16
4TH & 2
OPP 26
+12
83.1%
Jo'Quavious Marks run for 12 yds to the ARIZ 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:38
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-10
85.0%
MARKS, Jo'quavious rush to the left for a gain of 14 yards to the ARI0, TOUCHDOWN MSU, score nullified by penalty, clock 01:38 (Play was confirmed after review). PENALTY MSU Holding on SMITH, Cole enforced 10 yards from the ARI14 to the ARI24 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 1:38
1ST & 20
OPP 24
0
85.0%
Seth Davis run for no gain to the ARIZ 24Similar
Q2 0:48
2ND & 20
OPP 24
+10
86.1%
Seth Davis run for 10 yds to the ARIZ 14Similar
Q2 0:48
3RD & 10
OPP 14
-9
85.7%
Will Rogers sacked by Ta'ita'i Uiagalelei for a loss of 9 yards to the ARIZ 23Similar
Q2 0:44
4TH & 19
OPP 23
+41
84.8%
Kyle Ferrie 41 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 10TD
4 plays · 77 yds · 0:3814% → 28%
Q2 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+6
85.8%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Tetairoa McMillan for 6 yds to the ARIZ 29Similar
Q2 0:40
2ND & 4
OWN 29
+15
85.1%
DE LAURA, Jayden pass deep to the right incomplete intended for LEMONIOUS-CRAIG, Montana thrown to the MSU22. PENALTY MSU Pass Interference on FURDGE, Esaias enforced 15 yards to the ARI44 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 0:23
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+55
84.7%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Tetairoa McMillan for 55 yds to the MSST 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
72.5%
Jayden de Laura run for 1 yd for a TD (Tyler Loop KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 11END OF HALF
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0076% → 76%
Q2 0:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
76.4%
(00:02) [NH] Kneel down by ROGERS, Will at MSU23 (team loss of 2).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 1:4125% → 23%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
74.9%
Jayden de Laura pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 10
OWN 22
-5
75.1%
Arizona Penalty, False Start (Jonah Savaiinaea) to the ARIZ 17Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 15
OWN 17
+2
75.3%
Michael Wiley run for 2 yds to the ARIZ 19Similar
Q3 14:54
3RD & 13
OWN 19
-1
76.2%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Michael Wiley for a loss of 1 yard to the ARIZ 18Similar
Q3 13:13
4TH & 14
OWN 18
0
76.8%
Kyle Ostendorp punt for 37 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 13TD
4 plays · 30 yds · 2:0678% → 87%
Q3 13:13
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+2
78.3%
Jo'Quavious Marks run for 2 yds to the ARIZ 28Similar
Q3 13:13
2ND & 8
OPP 28
+7
78.3%
Jo'Quavious Marks run for 7 yds to the ARIZ 21Similar
Q3 13:13
3RD & 1
OPP 21
+6
77.5%
Jo'Quavious Marks run for 6 yds to the ARIZ 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:07
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
87.4%
Will Rogers pass complete to Lideatrick Griffin for 15 yds for a TD (Kyle Ferrie KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 14TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 4:3314% → 29%
Q3 11:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
85.6%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Jonah Coleman for 1 yd to the ARIZ 26Similar
Q3 11:07
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
85.7%
Jayden de Laura pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:07
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+11
85.9%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Jonah Coleman for 11 yds to the ARIZ 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:07
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
84.9%
Jonah Coleman run for no gain to the ARIZ 37Similar
Q3 11:07
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+5
85.0%
DE LAURA, Jayden pass to the left complete for 7 yards to MCMILLAN, Tetairoa caught at the ARI44 and advanced to the ARI44 (RICHARDSON, Decamerion). PENALTY Before the snap, MSU Illegal Substitution enforced 5 yards from the ARI37 to the ARI42. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 11:07
2ND & 5
OWN 42
-5
84.2%
DE LAURA, Jayden pass to the right complete for 12 yards to LEMONIOUS-CRAIG, Montana caught at the ARI49 and advanced to the MSU46 (BANKS, Marcus;NICHOLSON, DeCarlos). PENALTY ARI Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on BAKER, Josh enforced 5 yards from the ARI42 to the ARI37 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 11:07
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+21
85.0%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Tetairoa McMillan for 21 yds to the MSST 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:07
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+10
83.9%
Jayden de Laura run for 10 yds to the MSST 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:07
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+9
83.1%
Rayshon Luke run for 9 yds to the MSST 23Similar
Q3 11:07
2ND & 1
OPP 23
+6
82.7%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Montana Lemonious-Craig for 6 yds to the MSST 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:07
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
82.7%
Jayden de Laura pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:34
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+17
71.0%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Jacob Cowing for 17 yds for a TD (Tyler Loop KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 2:2180% → 79%
Q3 6:29
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+4
79.7%
Seth Davis run for 4 yds to the MSST 25Similar
Q3 6:29
2ND & 6
OWN 25
+5
79.8%
Seth Davis run for 5 yds to the MSST 30Similar
Q3 6:29
3RD & 1
OWN 30
0
79.7%
Jeffery Pittman run for no gain to the MSST 30Similar
Q3 4:08
4TH & 1
OWN 30
0
78.6%
Keelan Crimmins punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Jacob Cowing at the ARIZ 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 24 yds · 2:4624% → 22%
Q3 4:08
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+9
76.4%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Jacob Cowing for 9 yds to the ARIZ 39Similar
Q3 4:08
2ND & 1
OWN 39
+12
74.3%
Michael Wiley run for 12 yds to the MSST 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:08
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
73.6%
Jayden de Laura pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:08
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+5
74.6%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Jacob Cowing for 5 yds to the MSST 44Similar
Q3 4:08
3RD & 5
OPP 44
-2
74.0%
Jacob Cowing pass complete to Michael Wiley for a loss of 2 yards to the MSST 46Similar
Q3 1:22
4TH & 7
OPP 46
0
78.5%
Kyle Ostendorp punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Zavion Thomas at the MSST 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 17PUNT
8 plays · 31 yds · 3:2883% → 84%
Q3 1:22
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+8
83.1%
Will Rogers pass complete to Simeon Price for 8 yds to the MSST 20Similar
Q3 1:22
2ND & 2
OWN 20
+13
83.4%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'Quavious Marks for 13 yds to the MSST 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+6
84.9%
Jo'Quavious Marks run for 6 yds to the MSST 39Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 39
+9
86.2%
Will Rogers pass complete to Lideatrick Griffin for 9 yds to the MSST 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
86.4%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+1
86.1%
Jeffery Pittman run for 1 yd to the MSST 49Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 49
-6
85.1%
Will Rogers sacked by Jacob Manu for a loss of 6 yards to the MSST 43Similar
Q4 12:54
4TH & 15
OWN 43
0
84.0%
Keelan Crimmins punt for 37 yds, downed at the ARIZ 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 18TD
9 plays · 80 yds · 3:4019% → 50%
Q4 12:54
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
81.5%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Tetairoa McMillan for 4 yds to the ARIZ 24Similar
Q4 12:54
2ND & 6
OWN 24
0
81.0%
Jayden de Laura pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:54
3RD & 6
OWN 24
+5
82.5%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Montana Lemonious-Craig for 5 yds to the ARIZ 29Similar
Q4 12:54
4TH & 1
OWN 29
+1
82.4%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Jacob Cowing for 1 yd to the ARIZ 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:54
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+28
80.9%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Tanner McLachlan for 28 yds to the MSST 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:21
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+27
78.7%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Michael Wiley for 27 yds to the MSST 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:21
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+5
76.5%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Tanner McLachlan for 5 yds to the MSST 10Similar
Q4 11:21
2ND & 5
OPP 10
-1
76.5%
Jayden de Laura sacked by Jett Johnson for a loss of 1 yard to the MSST 11Similar
Q4 9:14
3RD & 6
OPP 11
+11
50.0%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Tetairoa McMillan for 11 yds for a TD (Tyler Loop KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 19FG
6 plays · 57 yds · 2:2760% → 74%
Q4 9:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
60.2%
Arizona Penalty, Personal Foul (Isaiah Taylor) to the ARIZ 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:14
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+6
67.0%
Jo'Quavious Marks run for 6 yds to the ARIZ 17Similar
Q4 7:36
2ND & 4
OPP 17
+1
66.5%
Jo'Quavious Marks run for 1 yd to the ARIZ 16Similar
Q4 7:36
3RD & 3
OPP 16
-2
64.4%
Jo'Quavious Marks run for a loss of 2 yards to the ARIZ 18Similar
Q4 6:47
4TH & 5
OPP 18
+36
74.0%
Kyle Ferrie 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 20INT
6 plays · 31 yds · 2:2132% → 39%
Q4 6:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
68.0%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Tanner McLachlan for 8 yds to the ARIZ 33Similar
Q4 6:47
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+8
64.0%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Tetairoa McMillan for 8 yds to the ARIZ 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:47
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
64.3%
Jayden de Laura run for 2 yds to the ARIZ 43Similar
Q4 6:47
2ND & 8
OWN 43
+3
64.2%
Jacob Cowing run for 3 yds to the ARIZ 46Similar
Q4 6:47
3RD & 5
OWN 46
+10
63.4%
DE LAURA, Jayden pass deep to the left incomplete intended for COWING, Jacob thrown to the MSU30. PENALTY MSU Holding on RICHARDSON, Decamerion enforced 10 yards from the ARI46 to the MSU44 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 4:26
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
61.5%
Jayden de Laura pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:3280% → 83%
Q4 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
79.8%
Jo'Quavious Marks run for 4 yds to the MSST 42Similar
Q4 4:15
2ND & 6
OWN 42
-3
80.5%
Mike Wright run for a loss of 3 yards to the MSST 39Similar
Q4 4:15
3RD & 9
OWN 39
0
77.5%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:43
4TH & 9
OWN 39
0
83.0%
Keelan Crimmins punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Jacob Cowing at the ARIZ 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 22FG
6 plays · 57 yds · 2:3128% → 56%
Q4 2:36
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+49
71.6%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Tetairoa McMillan for 49 yds to the MSST 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:19
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-3
62.9%
Michael Wiley run for a loss of 3 yards to the MSST 30Similar
Q4 2:19
2ND & 13
OPP 30
+12
66.1%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Jacob Cowing for 12 yds to the MSST 18Similar
Q4 0:09
3RD & 1
OPP 18
-1
65.9%
Jayden de Laura run for a loss of 1 yard to the MSST 19Similar
Q4 0:05
4TH & 2
OPP 19
+36
44.1%
Tyler Loop 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 23END OF GAME
2 plays · -2 yds · 15:0557% → 66%
Q4 0:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
57.0%
(00:05) [NH] Kneel down by ROGERS, Will at MSU23 (team loss of 2).Similar
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-10
65.6%
ROGERS, Will scrambles up the middle for a gain of 7 yards to the ARI18 (WARD, Isaiah). PENALTY MSU Holding on LOSOYA, Steven enforced 10 yards from the ARI25 to the ARI35 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 24TD
3 plays · 25 yds · 0:0066% → 86%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-10
65.6%
ROGERS, Will scrambles up the middle for a gain of 7 yards to the ARI18 (WARD, Isaiah). PENALTY MSU Holding on LOSOYA, Steven enforced 10 yards from the ARI25 to the ARI35 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
OT 0:00
1ST & 20
OPP 35
+6
64.1%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'Quavious Marks for 6 yds to the ARIZ 29Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 14
OPP 29
+29
86.2%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jeffery Pittman for 29 yds for a TD (Kyle Ferrie KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 25Uncategorized
3 plays · 9 yds · 0:0020% → 12%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
80.1%
Jayden de Laura pass incompleteSimilar
OT 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 25
0
82.1%
Jayden de Laura pass incompleteSimilar
OT 0:00
3RD & 10
OPP 25
0
88.0%
Jayden de Laura pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 9:14
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Tetairoa McMillan for 11 yds for a TD (Tyler Loop KICK)
-26.4
TD · OT 0:00
Will Rogers pass complete to Jeffery Pittman for 29 yds for a TD (Kyle Ferrie KICK)
+22.1
FG · Q4 0:05
Tyler Loop 36 yd FG GOOD
-21.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com