2023 · Week 2 · Sep 9, 2023 · Huntington Bank Stadium
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Win probability · MINN
modelMINN aheadEMU aheadconfidence bandkey playMINN scoreEMU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 5:10 · Mitchell Tomasek punt for 45 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- FG · Q2 10:52: Jesus Gomez 20 yd FG GOOD — EMU win probability +2.2 pts (now 18%) (top driver: EMU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 3:57: Darius Taylor run for 2 yds for a TD (Dragan Kesich KICK) — MINN win probability +2.4 pts (now 88%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
- FG · Q2 0:00: Jesus Gomez 37 yd FG GOOD — EMU win probability +3.1 pts (now 20%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
- FG · Q3 7:31: Dragan Kesich 19 yd FG GOOD — MINN win probability +4.8 pts (now 87%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
- TD · Q3 2:05: Athan Kaliakmanis run for 1 yd for a TD (Dragan Kesich KICK) — MINN win probability +7.5 pts (now 95%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
MINN made the numbers' call on 2 of 3EMU made the numbers' call on 3 of 5
- Q1 12:42EMU 4th & 14 at EMU 34, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 10.8% before the snapGo for it10.8%−0.218% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call10.9%average punt
- Q1 6:11MINN 4th & 1 at EMU 2, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 87.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call87.2%60% to convertField goal87.0%−0.294% to makePunt86.4%−0.8average punt
- Q1 4:13EMU 4th & 3 at EMU 24, tiedClose callPunted · 13.4% before the snapGo for it13.5%51% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call13.5%−<0.1average punt
- Q2 14:57MINN 4th & 6 at EMU 6, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 85.2% before the snapGo for it85.1%−0.131% to convertField goalTheir call85.1%91% to makePunt83.9%−1.2average punt
- Q2 10:52EMU 4th & 2 at MINN 2, down 3Close callKicked a field goal · 16.4% before the snapGo for it16.4%48% to convertField goalTheir call15.9%−0.694% to makePunt13.6%−2.8average punt
- Q3 7:31MINN 4th & 1 at EMU 1, up 4Numbers favored go for it by 2.5 ptsKicked a field goal · 81.5% before the snapGo for it81.0%59% to convertField goalTheir call78.4%−2.594% to makePunt71.7%−9.2average punt
- Q3 5:10EMU 4th & 9 at EMU 26, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.4% before the snapGo for it15.1%−1.430% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call16.5%average punt
- Q3 0:30EMU 4th & 5 at EMU 30, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.9% before the snapGo for it7.0%−0.241% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call7.3%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MINN made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q2 3:57MINN Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call85.1%97% to makeGo for two85.0%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 2:05MINN Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call92.8%97% to makeGo for two92.7%−0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartEMUDrive 1PUNT7 plays · 9 yds · 2:1810% → 11%
MINNDrive 2DOWNS12 plays · 79 yds · 6:3189% → 87%
EMUDrive 3PUNT5 plays · 20 yds · 1:5813% → 13%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 4FG11 plays · 56 yds · 4:1687% → 86%
Q1 4:13
3RD & 10
OWN 38
+12
86.5%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Le'Meke Brockington for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:14
2ND & 10
50
+19
86.5%
Sean Tyler run for 19 yds to the EMU 31 TEAM fumbled, recovered by MINN for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:14
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+22
86.9%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Corey Crooms Jr. for 22 yds to the EMU 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+4
86.5%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Brevyn Spann-Ford for 4 yds to the EMU 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 5FG10 plays · 73 yds · 4:0514% → 18%
Q2 14:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
86.5%
Austin Smith pass complete to Tanner Knue for 6 yds to the EMU 31Similar
Q2 14:57
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+7
86.2%
Austin Smith pass complete to Tanner Knue for 7 yds to the EMU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:57
2ND & 5
OWN 43
+29
85.8%
Austin Smith pass complete to Blake Daniels for 29 yds to the MINN 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 6TD13 plays · 93 yds · 6:5584% → 88%
Q2 10:52
2ND & 8
OWN 9
+13
83.7%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Corey Crooms Jr. for 13 yds to the MINN 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:52
2ND & 3
OWN 48
+15
84.9%
KALIAKMANIS, Athan pass deep to the left incomplete intended for JACKSON, Daniel thrown to the EMU28. PENALTY EMU Pass Interference on SMITH, Cameron enforced 15 yards to the EMU37 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NH]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 10:52
2ND & 9
OPP 24
0
85.4%
KALIAKMANIS, Athan pass to the left incomplete intended for SPANN-FORD, Brevyn thrown to the EMU9. PENALTY EMU Pass Interference on SPARACIO, Joe enforced half the distance from the goal, 15 yards to the EMU9 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 7FG15 plays · 56 yds · 3:5713% → 20%
Q2 2:03
3RD & 6
OWN 43
+10
86.2%
SMITH, Austin sacked for a loss of 13 yards at the EMU30 (BAUGH, Kyler). PENALTY UMN Holding on GOUSBY, Aidan enforced 10 yards from the EMU43 to the UMN47 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 0:31
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+7
84.1%
Austin Smith pass complete to Hamze El-Zayat for 7 yds to the MINN 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 8FG16 plays · 74 yds · 7:2982% → 87%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
81.6%
Eastern Michigan Penalty, Illegal Substitution (Peyton Price) to the MINN 30Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+11
82.1%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Darius Taylor for 11 yds to the MINN 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-1
83.0%
Athan Kaliakmanis sacked by Mikah Coleman for a loss of 1 yard to the MINN 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 9PUNT5 plays · 1 yds · 2:2117% → 15%
Q3 7:31
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-3
83.0%
Austin Smith sacked by Maverick Baranowski for a loss of 3 yards to the EMU 26Similar
Q3 7:31
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+5
84.3%
Austin Smith pass complete to Samson Evans for 5 yds to the EMU 31Similar
Q3 7:31
4TH & 4
OWN 31
-5
84.4%
Eastern Michigan Penalty, Illegal Substitution (Peyton Price) to the EMU 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 10TD7 plays · 64 yds · 3:0587% → 95%
Q3 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+20
86.7%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Daniel Jackson for 20 yds to the EMU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:10
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+15
87.7%
KALIAKMANIS, Athan pass deep to the left incomplete intended for SPANN-FORD, Brevyn thrown to the EMU16. PENALTY EMU Pass Interference on PEAVY, T.J. enforced 15 yards to the EMU29 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 11PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 1:357% → 7%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 12FUMBLE6 plays · 51 yds · 3:1095% → 96%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+2
95.2%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Darius Taylor for 2 yds to the MINN 21Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 25
+10
95.1%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Corey Crooms Jr. for 10 yds to the MINN 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:50
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
96.1%
Sean Tyler run for no gain to the EMU 30 Sean Tyler fumbled, recovered by EMU Justin JeffersonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 13PUNT5 plays · -13 yds · 0:007% → 6%
Q4 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
93.1%
Austin Smith pass complete to Jere Getzinger for 5 yds to the EMU 35Similar
Q4 11:50
3RD & 4
OWN 36
-5
93.0%
Eastern Michigan Penalty, Delay Of Game (Peyton Price) to the EMU 31Similar
Q4 11:50
3RD & 9
OWN 31
-9
93.7%
Austin Smith sacked by Tre'Von Jones for a loss of 9 yards to the EMU 22Similar
Q4 11:50
4TH & 18
OWN 22
-5
93.8%
Eastern Michigan Penalty, False Start (Josh McCarty) to the EMU 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 14INT3 plays · 1 yds · 1:4598% → 98%
EMUDrive 15INT4 plays · -10 yds · 0:443% → 2%
Q4 7:06
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-10
97.3%
QB Keeper SMITH, Austin rush to the left for a gain of 3 yards to the UMN40 (WILLIAMS, Devon). PENALTY EMU Holding on KNUE, Tanner enforced 10 yards from the UMN43 to the EMU47 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 16FG15 plays · 45 yds · 8:1498% → 99%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 2:05
Athan Kaliakmanis run for 1 yd for a TD (Dragan Kesich KICK)
+7.5
FG · Q3 7:31
Dragan Kesich 19 yd FG GOOD
+4.8
FG · Q2 0:00
Jesus Gomez 37 yd FG GOOD
-3.1