Try the model
RICH

Richmond 14 at Michigan State 45

MSU
2023 · Week 2 · Sep 9, 2023 · Spartan Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · MSU
modelMSU aheadRICH aheadconfidence bandkey playMSU scoreRICH score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 10:56 · Aaron Trusler punt for 39 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorBlowout margin
+46.5+23.30−23.3−46.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 92Pregame prior+27.3Home team on offense+22.1Score differential+14.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+5.1Garbage-time factor+4.4Blowout margin+0.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 7:26: Noah Kim pass complete to Tre Mosley for 11 yds for a TD (Jonathan Kim KICK) — MSU win probability +0.1 pts (now 95%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 13:44: Noah Kim pass complete to Tyneil Hopper for 13 yds for a TD (Jonathan Kim KICK) — MSU win probability +1.3 pts (now 96%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  3. FG · Q2 5:17: Jonathan Kim 52 yd FG GOOD — MSU win probability +1.1 pts (now 97%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 12:28: Nathan Carter run for 2 yds for a TD (Jonathan Kim KICK) — MSU win probability +2.6 pts (now 98%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 8:25: Nathan Carter run for 44 yds for a TD (Jonathan Kim KICK) — MSU win probability +1.2 pts (now 100%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4RICH made the numbers' call on 7 of 10
  1. Q1 13:34RICH 4th & 16 at RICH 19, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.0%−0.2
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.1%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:44MSU 4th & 9 at MSU 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.7%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.8%
    average punt
  3. Q1 11:26RICH 4th & 2 at RICH 20, tied
    Close callPunted · 4.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.4%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 9:57MSU 4th & 6 at MSU 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.2%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.2%
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:25RICH 4th & 7 at MSU 32, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.0%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    6.0%−<0.1
    51% to make
    Punt
    5.9%−0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:20RICH 4th & 1 at MSU 48, down 14
    Close callPunted · 5.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.0%−0.5
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:17MSU 4th & 14 at RICH 35, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 94.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.0%−0.3
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    94.2%
    45% to make
    Punt
    94.0%−0.3
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:19RICH 4th & 10 at RICH 44, down 17
    Close callWent for it · 4.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.0%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    4.1%
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:14RICH 4th & 6 at MSU 15, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 5.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.7%−0.6
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    5.3%
    83% to make
    Punt
    3.5%−1.8
    average punt
  10. Q3 10:56RICH 4th & 11 at RICH 24, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.7%−0.4
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.1%
    average punt
  11. Q3 6:09RICH 4th & 5 at RICH 30, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.4%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.4%
    average punt
  12. Q4 14:47RICH 4th & 17 at RICH 18, down 38
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    -0.0%−0.2
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  13. Q4 8:04RICH 4th & 9 at RICH 47, down 38
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  14. Q4 1:49MSU 4th & 4 at RICH 48, up 31
    Close callPunted · 100.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6RICH made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q1 7:26MSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 13:44MSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 12:28MSU Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 8:25MSU Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 1:12MSU Touchdown, up 37 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 14:36RICH Touchdown, down 32 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 11:33MSU Touchdown, up 37 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 5:16RICH Touchdown, down 32 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.1%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
RICHDrive 1PUNT
4 plays · -6 yds · 1:264% → 4%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
96.1%
Savon Smith run for 1 yd to the RICH 26Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
96.1%
Kyle Wickersham pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 26
-7
96.1%
Kyle Wickersham sacked by Brandon Wright and Simeon Barrow Jr. for a loss of 7 yards to the RICH 19Similar
Q1 13:34
4TH & 16
OWN 19
0
95.9%
Aaron Trusler punt for 34 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:5096% → 96%
Q1 13:34
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
95.9%
Noah Kim pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:34
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+1
95.9%
Nathan Carter run for 1 yd to the MSU 48Similar
Q1 13:34
3RD & 9
OWN 48
0
95.9%
Noah Kim pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:44
4TH & 9
OWN 48
0
95.7%
Ryan Eckley punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Savon Smith at the RICH 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICHDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:184% → 5%
Q1 12:44
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+2
95.7%
Milan Howard run for 2 yds to the RICH 14Similar
Q1 12:44
2ND & 8
OWN 14
+6
95.7%
Kyle Wickersham pass complete to Nick DeGennaro for 6 yds to the RICH 20Similar
Q1 12:44
3RD & 2
OWN 20
0
95.7%
Kyle Wickersham pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:26
4TH & 2
OWN 20
0
95.5%
Aaron Trusler punt for 42 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:2996% → 95%
Q1 11:26
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
95.5%
Nathan Carter run for 5 yds to the MSU 43Similar
Q1 11:26
2ND & 5
OWN 43
-1
95.5%
Nathan Carter run for a loss of 1 yard to the MSU 42Similar
Q1 11:26
3RD & 6
OWN 42
0
95.5%
Noah Kim pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:57
4TH & 6
OWN 42
0
95.1%
Ryan Eckley punt for 39 yds , returns for no gain to the RICH 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 5TD
5 plays · 19 yds · 2:3195% → 95%
Q1 9:57
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+6
95.3%
Jalen Berger run for 6 yds to the RICH 13Similar
Q1 9:57
2ND & 4
OPP 13
+1
95.3%
Jalen Berger run for 1 yd to the RICH 12Similar
Q1 9:57
3RD & 3
OPP 12
+4
95.2%
Nathan Carter run for 4 yds to the RICH 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-3
95.3%
Noah Kim run for a loss of 3 yards to the RICH 11Similar
Q1 7:26
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
+11
95.3%
Noah Kim pass complete to Tre Mosley for 11 yds for a TD (Jonathan Kim KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICHDrive 6DOWNS
12 plays · 44 yds · 6:015% → 5%
Q1 7:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
95.1%
Kyle Wickersham pass complete to Jerry Garcia Jr. for 4 yds to the RICH 29Similar
Q1 7:26
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+12
95.1%
Kyle Wickersham pass complete to Jerry Garcia Jr. for 12 yds to the RICH 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:26
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
95.1%
Savon Smith run for 3 yds to the RICH 44Similar
Q1 7:26
2ND & 7
OWN 44
+8
95.0%
Kyle Wickersham pass complete to Savon Smith for 8 yds to the MSU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:26
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-2
95.0%
Jamaal Brown run for a loss of 2 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 7:26
2ND & 12
50
+15
95.1%
Kyle Wickersham pass complete to Savon Smith for 15 yds to the MSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:14
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-3
93.8%
Kyle Wickersham sacked by Derrick Harmon and Aaron Brule for a loss of 3 yards to the MSU 38Similar
Q1 2:14
2ND & 13
OPP 38
0
94.1%
Kyle Wickersham pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:14
3RD & 13
OPP 38
+6
94.2%
Kyle Wickersham pass complete to Quanye Veney for 6 yds to the MSU 32Similar
Q1 1:25
4TH & 7
OPP 32
+1
94.0%
Kyle Wickersham pass complete to Ja'Vion Griffin for 1 yd to the MSU 31Similar
Q1 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-10
95.0%
KIM, Noah pass deep to the left incomplete intended for HENRY, Tyrell thrown to the MSU49; QB hurried by GRANT, Jeremiah. PENALTY MSU Holding on BROWN, Spencer enforced 10 yards from the MSU31 to the MSU21 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 7TD
8 plays · 69 yds · 2:4195% → 96%
Q1 1:25
1ST & 20
OWN 21
+9
95.0%
Noah Kim pass complete to Nathan Carter for 9 yds to the MSU 30Similar
Q1 1:25
2ND & 11
OWN 30
+12
94.9%
Noah Kim run for 12 yds to the MSU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
95.2%
Noah Kim pass complete to Nathan Carter for 5 yds to the MSU 47Similar
Q1 0:01
2ND & 5
OWN 47
0
94.9%
Noah Kim pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 5
OWN 47
+7
94.8%
Noah Kim run for 7 yds to the RICH 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+31
95.0%
Noah Kim pass complete to Jaron Glover for 31 yds to the RICH 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+2
94.9%
Nathan Carter run for 2 yds to the RICH 13Similar
Q2 13:44
2ND & 8
OPP 13
+13
96.3%
Noah Kim pass complete to Tyneil Hopper for 13 yds for a TD (Jonathan Kim KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICHDrive 8PUNT
7 plays · 27 yds · 3:245% → 5%
Q2 13:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
95.2%
Kyle Wickersham pass complete to Nick DeGennaro for 5 yds to the RICH 30Similar
Q2 13:44
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+13
95.2%
Savon Smith run for 13 yds to the RICH 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:44
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-1
95.2%
Kyle Wickersham pass complete to Savon Smith for a loss of 1 yard to the RICH 42Similar
Q2 13:44
2ND & 11
OWN 42
+9
95.2%
Kyle Wickersham pass complete to Nick DeGennaro for 9 yds to the MSU 49Similar
Q2 13:44
3RD & 2
OPP 49
+1
95.1%
Kyle Wickersham run for 1 yd to the MSU 48Similar
Q2 10:20
4TH & 1
OPP 48
0
94.8%
Aaron Trusler punt for 41 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 9FG
11 plays · 58 yds · 5:0396% → 97%
Q2 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+22
96.2%
Noah Kim pass complete to Maliq Carr for 22 yds to the MSU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+5
96.4%
Nathan Carter run for 5 yds to the MSU 34Similar
Q2 9:30
2ND & 5
OWN 34
+19
96.4%
Nathan Carter run for 19 yds to the RICH 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:30
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-1
96.6%
Nathan Carter run for a loss of 1 yard to the RICH 48Similar
Q2 9:30
2ND & 11
OPP 48
+17
96.6%
Noah Kim pass complete to Tre Mosley for 17 yds to the RICH 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:21
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-10
96.4%
KIM, Noah pass deep to the left complete for 31 yards to CARR, Maliq caught at the UOR0 and advanced to the UOR0, TOUCHDOWN MSU, score nullified by penalty, clock 07:21 (Play was confirmed after review). PENALTY MSU Holding on BROWN, Spencer enforced 10 yards from the UOR31 to the UOR41 [NH]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 7:21
1ST & 20
OPP 41
+6
96.3%
Noah Kim run for 6 yds to the RICH 35Similar
Q2 7:21
2ND & 14
OPP 35
+5
96.3%
Noah Kim pass complete to Jaylan Franklin for 5 yds to the RICH 30Similar
Q2 7:21
3RD & 9
OPP 30
-5
96.3%
Noah Kim run for a loss of 5 yards to the RICH 35Similar
Q2 5:17
4TH & 14
OPP 35
+52
97.4%
Jonathan Kim 52 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICHDrive 10MISSED FG
19 plays · 60 yds · 5:034% → 6%
Q2 5:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
95.8%
Kyle Wickersham pass complete to Milan Howard for a loss of 1 yard to the RICH 24Similar
Q2 5:17
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+20
95.9%
Kyle Wickersham run for 20 yds to the RICH 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:17
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+7
95.7%
Milan Howard run for 7 yds to the MSU 49Similar
Q2 5:17
2ND & 3
OPP 49
-3
95.3%
Kyle Wickersham sacked by Zion Young for a loss of 3 yards to the RICH 48Similar
Q2 2:19
3RD & 6
OWN 48
-4
95.6%
Kyle Wickersham sacked by Angelo Grose and Zion Young for a loss of 4 yards to the RICH 44Similar
Q2 2:19
4TH & 10
OWN 44
+20
95.9%
Owen Laughlin run for 20 yds to the MSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:19
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-15
95.2%
WICKERSHAM, Kyle pass deep to the right complete for 17 yards to DEGENNARO, Nick caught at the MSU19 and advanced to the MSU19 (TATUM, Dillon). PENALTY UOR Chop Block on LAMP, Gavin enforced 15 yards from the MSU36 to the UOR49 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 2:19
1ST & 25
OWN 49
0
95.7%
Kyle Wickersham pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:00
2ND & 25
OWN 49
+12
95.8%
Kyle Wickersham pass complete to Landon Ellis for 12 yds to the MSU 39Similar
Q2 0:54
3RD & 13
OPP 39
+10
94.5%
WICKERSHAM, Kyle sacked for a loss of 3 yards at the MSU42 (WRIGHT, Brandon;SPENCER, Malik). PENALTY MSU Holding on BRANTLEY, Charles enforced 10 yards from the MSU39 to the MSU29 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 0:54
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+10
93.7%
Kyle Wickersham run for 10 yds to the MSU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:54
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
93.7%
Savon Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:25
2ND & 10
OPP 19
-2
94.0%
Kyle Wickersham sacked by Brandon Wright and Derrick Harmon for a loss of 2 yards to the MSU 21Similar
Q2 0:25
3RD & 12
OPP 21
+6
94.6%
Kyle Wickersham pass complete to Jerry Garcia Jr. for 6 yds to the MSU 15Similar
Q2 0:14
4TH & 6
OPP 15
+32
94.4%
Andrew Lopez 32 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 11END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0092% → 92%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
91.9%
Kneel down by MSU at MSU19 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 12TD
6 plays · 65 yds · 2:2696% → 98%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+12
95.6%
Noah Kim pass complete to Tre Mosley for 12 yds to the MSU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+29
95.8%
Noah Kim pass complete to Jaron Glover for 29 yds to the RICH 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+15
95.8%
Noah Kim pass complete to Montorie Foster Jr. for 15 yds to the RICH 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+7
95.3%
Nathan Carter run for 7 yds to the RICH 2Similar
Q3 12:28
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
97.9%
Nathan Carter run for 2 yds for a TD (Jonathan Kim KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICHDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · -1 yds · 1:322% → 2%
Q3 12:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
97.7%
Richmond Penalty, False Start (Keith Gouveia) to the RICH 20Similar
Q3 12:28
1ST & 15
OWN 20
-1
97.7%
Kyle Wickersham sacked by Khris Bogle and Aaron Brule for a loss of 1 yard to the RICH 19Similar
Q3 12:28
2ND & 16
OWN 19
0
97.7%
Kyle Wickersham pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:28
3RD & 16
OWN 19
+5
97.7%
Kyle Wickersham pass complete to Nick DeGennaro for 5 yds to the RICH 24Similar
Q3 10:56
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
98.0%
Aaron Trusler punt for 39 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 14TD
4 plays · 63 yds · 2:3199% → 100%
Q3 10:56
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
98.5%
Nathan Carter run for 3 yds to the MSU 40Similar
Q3 10:56
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+13
98.5%
Noah Kim pass complete to Christian Fitzpatrick for 13 yds to the RICH 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:56
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
98.6%
Nathan Carter run for 3 yds to the RICH 44Similar
Q3 8:25
2ND & 7
OPP 44
+44
99.7%
Nathan Carter run for 44 yds for a TD (Jonathan Kim KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICHDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 2:160% → 0%
Q3 8:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
99.7%
Jamaal Brown run for 4 yds to the RICH 29Similar
Q3 8:25
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+3
99.6%
Kyle Wickersham pass complete to Nick DeGennaro for 3 yds to the RICH 32Similar
Q3 8:25
3RD & 3
OWN 32
-2
99.6%
Fonnae Webb run for a loss of 2 yards to the RICH 30Similar
Q3 6:09
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
99.6%
Aaron Trusler punt for 40 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 16TD
9 plays · 70 yds · 4:57100% → 100%
Q3 6:09
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-1
99.8%
Nathan Carter run for a loss of 1 yard to the MSU 29Similar
Q3 6:09
2ND & 11
OWN 29
+18
99.8%
Noah Kim pass complete to Tre Mosley for 18 yds to the MSU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:09
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+1
99.8%
Nathan Carter run for 1 yd to the MSU 48Similar
Q3 6:09
2ND & 9
OWN 48
+2
99.8%
Nathan Carter run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 6:09
3RD & 7
50
+8
99.8%
Noah Kim pass complete to Montorie Foster Jr. for 8 yds to the RICH 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:09
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+26
99.8%
Noah Kim pass complete to Tre Mosley for 26 yds to the RICH 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:09
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+9
99.8%
Nathan Carter run for 9 yds to the RICH 7Similar
Q3 6:09
2ND & 1
OPP 7
+1
99.8%
Nathan Carter run for 1 yd to the RICH 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
99.9%
Nathan Carter run for 6 yds for a TD (Stephen Rusnak KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICHDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · -7 yds · 1:250% → 0%
Q3 1:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
99.9%
Milan Howard run for a loss of 3 yards to the RICH 22Similar
Q3 1:12
2ND & 13
OWN 22
0
99.9%
Kyle Wickersham pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 13
OWN 22
-4
99.9%
Kyle Wickersham sacked by Tunmise Adeleye for a loss of 4 yards to the RICH 18Similar
Q4 14:47
4TH & 17
OWN 18
0
99.9%
Aaron Trusler punt for 46 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 18FUMBLE RETURN TD
1 play · 1 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 14:36
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+47
99.8%
Aaron Banks 47 Yd Fumble Return (Jayden Alsheskie Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 19TD
6 plays · 69 yds · 2:55100% → 100%
Q4 14:28
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
99.8%
Noah Kim pass complete to Jaylan Franklin for 4 yds to the MSU 35Similar
Q4 14:28
2ND & 6
OWN 35
+4
99.8%
Davion Primm run for 4 yds to the MSU 39Similar
Q4 14:28
3RD & 2
OWN 39
+4
99.9%
Noah Kim run for 4 yds to the MSU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:28
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+9
99.9%
Noah Kim pass complete to Christian Fitzpatrick for 9 yds to the RICH 48Similar
Q4 14:28
2ND & 1
OPP 48
+3
99.9%
Davion Primm run for 3 yds to the RICH 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:33
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+45
99.9%
Noah Kim pass complete to Antonio Gates Jr. for 45 yds for a TD (Stephen Rusnak KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICHDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · 22 yds · 3:290% → 0%
Q4 11:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
99.9%
Fonnae Webb run for 9 yds to the RICH 34Similar
Q4 11:33
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+12
99.9%
Kyle Wickersham pass complete to Jerry Garcia Jr. for 12 yds to the RICH 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:33
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
99.9%
Fonnae Webb run for 2 yds to the RICH 48Similar
Q4 11:33
2ND & 8
OWN 48
-2
99.9%
Fonnae Webb run for a loss of 2 yards to the RICH 46Similar
Q4 11:33
3RD & 10
OWN 46
+1
99.9%
Kyle Wickersham run for 1 yd to the RICH 47Similar
Q4 8:04
4TH & 9
OWN 47
0
99.9%
Aaron Trusler punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Tyrell Henry at the MSU 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 21FUMBLE
2 plays · 10 yds · 0:42100% → 100%
Q4 8:04
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+8
99.9%
Davion Primm run for 8 yds to the MSU 23Similar
Q4 7:22
2ND & 2
OWN 23
+2
99.9%
Davion Primm run for 2 yds to the MSU 25 Davion Primm fumbled, recovered by RICH Quantraill Morris-WalkerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICHDrive 22TD
4 plays · 25 yds · 2:060% → 0%
Q4 7:22
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+11
99.9%
Jackson Hardy pass complete to Quanye Veney for 11 yds to the MSU 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:22
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+6
99.9%
Jamaal Brown run for 6 yds to the MSU 8Similar
Q4 7:22
2ND & 4
OPP 8
+3
99.9%
Fonnae Webb run for 3 yds to the MSU 5Similar
Q4 5:16
3RD & 1
OPP 5
+5
99.9%
Jackson Hardy pass complete to Sean Clarke for 5 yds for a TD (Jayden Alsheskie KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 23PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 3:27100% → 100%
Q4 5:16
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
99.9%
Joseph Martinez run for 2 yds to the MSU 37Similar
Q4 5:16
2ND & 8
OWN 37
-2
99.9%
Joseph Martinez run for a loss of 2 yards to the MSU 35Similar
Q4 5:16
3RD & 10
OWN 35
+11
99.9%
Katin Houser pass complete to Christian Fitzpatrick for 11 yds to the MSU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:16
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
99.9%
Joseph Martinez run for 3 yds to the MSU 49Similar
Q4 5:16
2ND & 7
OWN 49
+2
99.9%
Joseph Martinez run for 2 yds to the RICH 49Similar
Q4 5:16
3RD & 5
OPP 49
+1
99.9%
Joseph Martinez run for 1 yd to the RICH 48Similar
Q4 1:49
4TH & 4
OPP 48
0
100.0%
Michael O'Shaughnessy punt for 48 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICHDrive 24END OF GAME
3 plays · 6 yds · 1:490% → 0%
Q4 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
99.9%
Jamaal Brown run for 2 yds to the RICH 32Similar
Q4 1:49
2ND & 8
OWN 32
0
100.0%
Jamaal Brown run for no gain to the RICH 32Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 8
OWN 32
+4
100.0%
Jackson Hardy run for 4 yds to the RICH 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 12:28
Nathan Carter run for 2 yds for a TD (Jonathan Kim KICK)
+2.6
TD · Q2 13:44
Noah Kim pass complete to Tyneil Hopper for 13 yds for a TD (Jonathan Kim KICK)
+1.3
TD · Q3 8:25
Nathan Carter run for 44 yds for a TD (Jonathan Kim KICK)
+1.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com