Try the model
UNLV

UNLV 7 at Michigan 35

MICH
2023 · Week 2 · Sep 9, 2023 · Michigan Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · MICH
modelMICH aheadUNLV aheadconfidence bandkey playMICH scoreUNLV score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 6:44 · Tommy Doman punt for 46 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+49.0+24.50−24.5−49.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 88Pregame prior+30.4Home team on offense+31.8Score differential+24.4Blowout margin+10.2Garbage-time factor+10.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+7.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 7:06: Blake Corum run for 3 yds for a TD (James Turner KICK) — MICH win probability +0.2 pts (now 99%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 14:56: Blake Corum run for 2 yds for a TD (James Turner KICK) — MICH win probability +0.5 pts (now 99%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:24: J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Roman Wilson for 13 yds for a TD (James Turner KICK) — MICH win probability +1.7 pts (now 99%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q2 0:22: Vincent Davis Jr. run for 2 yds to the UNLV 27 — UNLV win probability +0.4 pts (now 1%) (top driver: UNLV has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 10:31: J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Roman Wilson for 47 yds for a TD (James Turner KICK) — MICH win probability +0.8 pts (now 100%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MICH made the numbers' call on 3 of 4UNLV made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
  1. Q1 11:49UNLV 4th & 12 at UNLV 44, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.9%−0.1
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:52UNLV 4th & 19 at UNLV 26, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.3%−0.2
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.5%
    average punt
  3. Q2 12:33UNLV 4th & 20 at UNLV 30, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.5%−0.3
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.8%
    average punt
  4. Q2 8:29MICH 4th & 2 at UNLV 18, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 97.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    97.1%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    97.0%−0.2
    79% to make
    Punt
    96.1%−1.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 4:33UNLV 4th & 9 at UNLV 42, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.3%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.5%
    average punt
  6. Q3 13:47MICH 4th & 3 at MICH 38, up 21
    Close callPunted · 98.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.5%−0.1
    average punt
  7. Q3 12:05UNLV 4th & 2 at UNLV 23, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.5%−<0.1
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.5%
    average punt
  8. Q3 8:12UNLV 4th & 5 at MICH 34, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.4%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    0.3%−<0.1
    47% to make
    Punt
    0.3%−0.1
    average punt
  9. Q3 6:44MICH 4th & 6 at MICH 37, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.8%
    average punt
  10. Q3 5:37UNLV 4th & 20 at UNLV 29, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−0.3
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
  11. Q3 0:58UNLV 4th & 8 at MICH 46, down 35
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    0.0%−0.1
    23% to make
    Punt
    0.1%
    average punt
  12. Q4 10:34UNLV 4th & 3 at MICH 40, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    -0.0%−0.1
    34% to make
    Punt
    -0.0%−0.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 8:21MICH 4th & 13 at MICH 38, up 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−0.1
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MICH made the numbers' call on 5 of 5UNLV made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 7:06MICH Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:56MICH Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:24MICH Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 10:31MICH Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 3:16MICH Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 2:43UNLV Touchdown, down 29 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UNLVDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 19 yds · 3:081% → 1%
Q1 14:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
99.0%
Doug Brumfield pass complete to Senika McKie for 10 yds to the UNLV 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:34
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
99.0%
Vincent Davis Jr. run for 2 yds to the UNLV 37Similar
Q1 14:09
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+2
99.0%
Doug Brumfield pass complete to Donavyn Lester for 2 yds to the UNLV 39Similar
Q1 13:30
3RD & 6
OWN 39
+7
98.9%
Doug Brumfield pass complete to Jacob De Jesus for 7 yds to the UNLV 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:05
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-4
98.9%
Jai'Den Thomas run for a loss of 4 yards to the UNLV 42Similar
Q1 12:30
2ND & 14
OWN 42
+2
98.9%
Jai'Den Thomas run for 2 yds to the UNLV 44Similar
Q1 11:54
3RD & 12
OWN 44
0
98.8%
Doug Brumfield pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:49
4TH & 12
OWN 44
0
98.8%
Marshall Nichols punt for 56 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 2TD
10 plays · 80 yds · 4:3399% → 99%
Q1 11:39
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+20
98.8%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Blake Corum for 20 yds to the MICH 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:58
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
98.8%
Blake Corum run for 1 yd to the MICH 41Similar
Q1 10:25
2ND & 9
OWN 41
+1
98.7%
Blake Corum run for 1 yd to the MICH 42Similar
Q1 9:45
3RD & 8
OWN 42
+16
98.6%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Tyler Morris for 16 yds to the UNLV 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:24
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+25
98.6%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Roman Wilson for 25 yds to the UNLV 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:48
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-3
98.6%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Colston Loveland for a loss of 3 yards to the UNLV 20Similar
Q1 8:08
2ND & 13
OPP 20
+6
98.5%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Cornelius Johnson for 6 yds to the UNLV 14Similar
Q1 7:26
3RD & 7
OPP 14
+11
98.5%
Blake Corum run for 11 yds to the UNLV 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
98.6%
Blake Corum run for 3 yds for a TD (James Turner KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · -9 yds · 1:122% → 2%
Q1 7:04
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-3
98.5%
Jai'Den Thomas run for a loss of 3 yards to the UNLV 32Similar
Q1 6:35
2ND & 13
OWN 32
0
98.5%
Doug Brumfield pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:28
3RD & 13
OWN 32
-6
98.5%
Doug Brumfield sacked by Derrick Moore for a loss of 6 yards to the UNLV 26Similar
Q1 5:52
4TH & 19
OWN 26
0
98.5%
Marshall Nichols punt for 49 yds, downed at the MICH 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 4TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 5:4899% → 99%
Q1 5:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
98.5%
Blake Corum run for 6 yds to the MICH 31Similar
Q1 5:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+8
98.4%
Blake Corum run for 8 yds to the MICH 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
98.4%
Donovan Edwards run for no gain to the MICH 39Similar
Q1 3:43
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+4
98.3%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Roman Wilson for 4 yds to the MICH 43Similar
Q1 3:00
3RD & 6
OWN 43
+15
98.2%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Tyler Morris for 15 yds to the UNLV 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:31
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
98.2%
Donovan Edwards run for no gain to the UNLV 42Similar
Q1 1:57
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+3
98.2%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Blake Corum for 3 yds to the UNLV 39Similar
Q1 1:19
3RD & 7
OPP 39
+12
98.1%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to AJ Barner for 12 yds to the UNLV 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:38
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+8
98.1%
Blake Corum run for 8 yds to the UNLV 19Similar
Q1 0:01
2ND & 2
OPP 19
+17
98.0%
J.J. McCarthy run for 17 yds to the UNLV 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
98.5%
Blake Corum run for 2 yds for a TD (James Turner KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 2:212% → 2%
Q2 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
98.3%
Doug Brumfield pass complete to Jacob De Jesus for 15 yds to the UNLV 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:24
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-6
98.2%
Doug Brumfield sacked by Jaylen Harrell for a loss of 6 yards to the UNLV 34Similar
Q2 13:49
2ND & 16
OWN 34
+3
98.3%
Vincent Davis Jr. run for 3 yds to the UNLV 37Similar
Q2 13:13
3RD & 13
OWN 37
-7
98.2%
Doug Brumfield sacked by Jaylen Harrell and Mason Graham for a loss of 7 yards to the UNLV 30Similar
Q2 12:33
4TH & 20
OWN 30
0
98.2%
Marshall Nichols punt for 29 yds, downed at the MICH 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 6DOWNS
7 plays · 42 yds · 3:5798% → 98%
Q2 12:26
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+9
98.4%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Colston Loveland for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 11:48
2ND & 1
50
+4
98.4%
Donovan Edwards run for 4 yds to the UNLV 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:13
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+20
98.3%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Cornelius Johnson for 20 yds to the UNLV 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:39
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+4
98.3%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Donovan Edwards for 4 yds to the UNLV 22Similar
Q2 9:52
2ND & 6
OPP 22
+1
98.3%
Donovan Edwards run for 1 yd to the UNLV 21Similar
Q2 9:15
3RD & 5
OPP 21
+3
98.2%
Donovan Edwards run for 3 yds to the UNLV 18Similar
Q2 8:29
4TH & 2
OPP 18
+1
98.1%
Blake Corum run for 1 yd to the UNLV 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 7PUNT
8 plays · 25 yds · 4:002% → 2%
Q2 8:33
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+12
97.9%
Doug Brumfield run for 12 yds to the UNLV 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:56
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-4
97.8%
Doug Brumfield sacked by Kenneth Grant for a loss of 4 yards to the UNLV 25Similar
Q2 7:16
2ND & 14
OWN 25
+11
97.8%
Doug Brumfield pass complete to Jacob De Jesus for 11 yds to the UNLV 36Similar
Q2 6:31
3RD & 3
OWN 36
+5
97.7%
Doug Brumfield pass complete to Jacob De Jesus for 5 yds to the UNLV 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+8
97.6%
Doug Brumfield pass complete to Jacob De Jesus for 8 yds to the UNLV 49Similar
Q2 5:31
2ND & 2
OWN 49
-7
97.4%
Doug Brumfield sacked by Kris Jenkins and Kenneth Grant for a loss of 7 yards to the UNLV 42Similar
Q2 4:43
3RD & 9
OWN 42
0
97.6%
Doug Brumfield pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:33
4TH & 9
OWN 42
0
97.6%
Marshall Nichols punt for 41 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 8TD
11 plays · 83 yds · 4:0398% → 99%
Q2 4:27
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+18
97.7%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Cornelius Johnson for 18 yds to the MICH 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:54
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
97.6%
J.J. McCarthy pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:51
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+3
97.6%
Blake Corum run for 3 yds to the MICH 38Similar
Q2 3:00
3RD & 7
OWN 38
+15
97.6%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Donovan Edwards for 15 yds to the UNLV 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:20
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
97.7%
Blake Corum run for 2 yds to the UNLV 45Similar
Q2 1:44
2ND & 8
OPP 45
+2
97.7%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Donovan Edwards for 2 yds to the UNLV 43Similar
Q2 1:03
3RD & 6
OPP 43
+9
97.6%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Tyler Morris for 9 yds to the UNLV 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:39
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+7
97.7%
J.J. McCarthy run for 7 yds to the UNLV 27Similar
Q2 0:32
2ND & 3
OPP 27
+14
97.7%
J.J. McCarthy run for 14 yds to the UNLV 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:24
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
99.2%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Roman Wilson for 13 yds for a TD (James Turner KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 9END OF HALF
1 play · 2 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q2 0:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
98.8%
Vincent Davis Jr. run for 2 yds to the UNLV 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:0499% → 99%
Q3 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
98.9%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Donovan Edwards for 2 yds to the MICH 33Similar
Q3 14:14
2ND & 8
OWN 33
+5
99.0%
Blake Corum run for 5 yds to the MICH 38Similar
Q3 13:53
3RD & 3
OWN 38
0
99.0%
J.J. McCarthy pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:47
4TH & 3
OWN 38
0
98.9%
Tommy Doman punt for 49 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:361% → 1%
Q3 13:41
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+4
98.8%
Doug Brumfield run for 4 yds to the UNLV 19Similar
Q3 13:14
2ND & 6
OWN 19
+2
98.8%
Donavyn Lester run for 2 yds to the UNLV 21Similar
Q3 12:39
3RD & 4
OWN 21
+2
98.8%
Doug Brumfield run for 2 yds to the UNLV 23Similar
Q3 12:05
4TH & 2
OWN 23
0
98.8%
Marshall Nichols punt for 60 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 12TD
3 plays · 64 yds · 1:2199% → 100%
Q3 11:52
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+12
99.0%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Cornelius Johnson for 12 yds to the MICH 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:19
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
99.0%
Blake Corum run for 5 yds to the UNLV 47Similar
Q3 10:31
2ND & 5
OPP 47
+47
99.8%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Roman Wilson for 47 yds for a TD (James Turner KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 13DOWNS
8 plays · 42 yds · 2:190% → 0%
Q3 10:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.8%
Doug Brumfield pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:25
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
99.8%
Doug Brumfield pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:21
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+15
99.8%
(10:21) BRUMFIELD, Doug pass deep to the left incomplete intended for WHITE, Ricky thrown to the NLV49, clock 10:15. PENALTY MIC Roughing the Passer on BENNY, Rayshaun enforced 15 yards from the NLV25 to the NLV40 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+21
99.8%
Vincent Davis Jr. run for 21 yds to the MICH 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:59
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
99.8%
Donavyn Lester run for 3 yds to the MICH 36Similar
Q3 9:25
2ND & 7
OPP 36
+4
99.8%
Doug Brumfield pass complete to Ricky White for 4 yds to the MICH 32Similar
Q3 8:51
3RD & 3
OPP 32
-2
99.8%
Vincent Davis Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the MICH 34Similar
Q3 8:12
4TH & 5
OPP 34
+1
99.7%
Doug Brumfield run for 1 yd to the MICH 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:24100% → 100%
Q3 8:08
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+1
99.8%
Donovan Edwards run for 1 yd to the MICH 34Similar
Q3 7:28
2ND & 9
OWN 34
+3
99.8%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Donovan Edwards for 3 yds to the MICH 37Similar
Q3 6:48
3RD & 6
OWN 37
0
99.9%
J.J. McCarthy pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:44
4TH & 6
OWN 37
0
99.8%
Tommy Doman punt for 46 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · -10 yds · 5:540% → 0%
Q3 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
99.8%
Doug Brumfield run for no gain to the UNLV 39Similar
Q3 6:00
2ND & 10
OWN 39
0
99.8%
Doug Brumfield pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:56
3RD & 10
OWN 39
0
99.8%
Doug Brumfield pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:37
4TH & 20
OWN 29
0
99.8%
Marshall Nichols punt for 52 ydsSimilar
Q3 5:37
4TH & 10
OWN 39
+5
99.8%
NICHOLS, Marshall punt 48 yards to the MIC13, MORRIS, Tyler returned 24 yards to the MIC37 (OLIVER, Cameron), clock 05:37. PENALTY MIC Running Into the kicker on MORGAN, Semaj enforced 5 yards from the NLV39 to the NLV44. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 0:36
4TH & 5
OWN 44
-15
99.9%
UNLV Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (-15 Yards) to the UNLV 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 16TD
4 plays · 76 yds · 2:12100% → 100%
Q3 5:28
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+19
99.9%
Blake Corum run for 19 yds to the MICH 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:44
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+26
99.9%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Cornelius Johnson for 26 yds to the UNLV 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:54
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+26
99.9%
Cornelius Johnson run for 26 yds to the UNLV 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
99.9%
Blake Corum run for 5 yds for a TD (James Turner KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 17DOWNS
6 plays · 29 yds · 2:160% → 0%
Q3 3:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+27
99.9%
Doug Brumfield pass complete to Ricky White for 27 yds to the MICH 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:34
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-11
99.9%
Vincent Davis Jr. run for a loss of 11 yards to the UNLV 43 Vincent Davis Jr. fumbled, recovered by UNLV Vincent Davis Jr.Similar
Q3 1:53
2ND & 19
OWN 43
0
99.9%
Doug Brumfield pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:51
3RD & 19
OWN 43
+11
99.9%
Doug Brumfield pass complete to Timothy Conerly for 11 yds to the MICH 46Similar
Q3 0:58
4TH & 8
OPP 46
0
99.9%
Doug Brumfield pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 18INT
5 plays · 32 yds · 1:01100% → 100%
Q3 0:54
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+15
99.9%
UNLV Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Cameron Oliver) to the UNLV 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:36
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
99.9%
Kalel Mullings run for 3 yds to the UNLV 22Similar
Q4 14:58
2ND & 7
OPP 22
0
99.9%
Davis Warren pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:53
3RD & 7
OPP 22
0
99.9%
Davis Warren pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 19DOWNS
8 plays · 37 yds · 4:110% → 0%
Q4 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-1
99.9%
Courtney Reese run for a loss of 1 yard to the UNLV 22Similar
Q4 14:05
2ND & 11
OWN 22
+15
99.9%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Dominic Gicinto for 15 yds to the UNLV 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:33
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
99.9%
Jai'Den Thomas run for 3 yds to the UNLV 40Similar
Q4 12:48
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+13
99.9%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Timothy Conerly for 13 yds to the MICH 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:06
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+4
99.9%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Timothy Conerly for 4 yds to the MICH 43Similar
Q4 11:19
2ND & 6
OPP 43
0
99.9%
Jayden Maiava pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:14
3RD & 6
OPP 43
+3
99.9%
Jai'Den Thomas run for 3 yds to the MICH 40Similar
Q4 10:34
4TH & 3
OPP 40
0
99.9%
Jayden Maiava pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 2:08100% → 100%
Q4 10:29
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
99.9%
CJ Stokes run for 2 yds to the MICH 43Similar
Q4 9:46
2ND & 8
OWN 43
0
99.9%
CJ Stokes run for no gain to the MICH 43Similar
Q4 9:10
3RD & 8
OWN 43
0
99.9%
Jayden Denegal run for no gain to the MICH 43Similar
Q4 8:29
4TH & 8
OWN 43
-5
99.9%
(08:29) DOMAN, Tommy punt 50 yards to the NLV7, fair catch by DE JESUS, Jacob, clock 08:20. PENALTY Before the snap, MIC Illegal Motion on GENTRY, Andrew enforced 5 yards from the MIC43 to the MIC38. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 8:21
4TH & 13
OWN 38
0
99.9%
punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Jacob De Jesus at the UNLV 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 21TD
10 plays · 81 yds · 5:320% → 0%
Q4 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+9
100.0%
Courtney Reese run for 9 yds to the UNLV 28Similar
Q4 7:36
2ND & 1
OWN 28
+3
100.0%
Jordan Younge-Humphrey run for 3 yds to the UNLV 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:58
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+25
100.0%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Dominic Gicinto for 25 yds to the MICH 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:23
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+11
100.0%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Christian Earls for 11 yds to the MICH 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:45
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+5
99.9%
Jayden Maiava run for 5 yds to the MICH 28Similar
Q4 5:06
2ND & 5
OPP 28
-5
99.9%
UNLV Penalty, False Start (Christian Earls) to the MICH 33Similar
Q4 4:48
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+8
100.0%
Jayden Maiava run for 8 yds to the MICH 25Similar
Q4 4:12
3RD & 2
OPP 25
+2
100.0%
Courtney Reese run for 2 yds to the MICH 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:28
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+3
100.0%
Courtney Reese run for 3 yds to the MICH 20Similar
Q4 2:43
2ND & 7
OPP 20
+20
99.9%
Jordan Younge-Humphrey run for 20 yds for a TD (Jose Pizano KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 22END OF GAME
5 plays · 37 yds · 2:01100% → 100%
Q4 2:36
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
100.0%
Leon Franklin run for 2 yds to the MICH 33Similar
Q4 1:53
2ND & 8
OWN 33
+3
100.0%
Henry Donohue run for 3 yds to the MICH 36Similar
Q4 1:14
3RD & 5
OWN 36
+35
100.0%
Jayden Denegal pass complete to Semaj Morgan for 35 yds to the UNLV 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-5
100.0%
Michigan Penalty, Illegal Snap on CRIPPEN, Greg enforced (-5 Yards) to the UNLV 34Similar
Q4 0:35
1ST & 15
OPP 34
+2
100.0%
Danny Hughes run for 2 yds to the UNLV 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:24
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Roman Wilson for 13 yds for a TD (James Turner KICK)
+1.7
TD · Q3 10:31
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Roman Wilson for 47 yds for a TD (James Turner KICK)
+0.8
TD · Q2 14:56
Blake Corum run for 2 yds for a TD (James Turner KICK)
+0.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com