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CLT

Charlotte 20 at Maryland 38

MD
2023 · Week 2 · Sep 9, 2023 · SECU Stadium
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Win probability · MD
modelMD aheadCLT aheadconfidence bandkey playMD scoreCLT score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGFGFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 7:01 · Grant Gonya punt for 47 yds for a touchback
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+46.5+23.30−23.3−46.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 17Pregame prior+43.1Home team on offense−4.3Score differential−1.8Garbage-time factor−0.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.1
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 11:09: Jack Howes 32 yd FG GOOD — CLT win probability +2.1 pts (now 13%) (top driver: MD has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 0:00: Jack Howes 45 yd FG GOOD — MD win probability +6.5 pts (now 82%) (top driver: MD has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 9:18: Billy Edwards Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD (Taulia Tagovailoa pass to Tai Felton for Two-Point Conversion) — MD win probability +4.2 pts (now 86%) (top driver: MD has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 11:55: Colby McDonald run for 23 yds for a TD (Jack Howes KICK) — MD win probability +9.3 pts (now 93%) (top driver: MD has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 8:06: Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Kaden Prather for 40 yds for a TD (Jack Howes KICK) — MD win probability +5.7 pts (now 98%) (top driver: MD has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MD made the numbers' call on 5 of 5CLT made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 10:57MD 4th & 8 at MD 27, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.7%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:01CLT 4th & 9 at MD 47, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.9%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.0%
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:53MD 4th & 14 at MD 16, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.5%−0.7
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.2%
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:06CLT 4th & 8 at CLT 47, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.7%−0.3
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.0%
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:09MD 4th & 8 at CLT 14, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 79.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.8%−0.4
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    79.3%
    84% to make
    Punt
    76.0%−3.3
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:34CLT 4th & 8 at CLT 42, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.6%−0.6
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.2%
    average punt
  7. Q2 3:25MD 4th & 20 at CLT 20, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 70.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.6%−1.4
    9% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    71.0%
    75% to make
    Punt
    67.8%−3.2
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:08CLT 4th & 9 at CLT 49, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.6%−0.3
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.9%
    average punt
  9. Q3 9:18MD 4th & 1 at CLT 1, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 69.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    68.2%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    64.2%−4.0
    94% to make
    Punt
    53.5%−14.6
    average punt
  10. Q3 6:39CLT 4th & 14 at CLT 41, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.5%−2.6
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.1%
    average punt
  11. Q3 1:06CLT 4th & 11 at CLT 35, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.5%−2.2
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.7%
    average punt
  12. Q4 4:35CLT 4th & 2 at CLT 45, down 24
    Close callWent for it · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.6%−<0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.6%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MD made the numbers' call on 1 of 4CLT made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 12:00CLT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    7.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    7.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 11:50CLT Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    7.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    7.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 9:18MD Touchdown, up 1 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    82.3%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    82.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 11:55MD Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.6%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.6%
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 8:06MD Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 4:35MD Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.5%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.6%
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 1:22CLT Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    1.4%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    1.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CLTDrive 1TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 3:004% → 5%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
96.3%
Jalon Jones run for 4 yds to the CLT 29Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+6
96.3%
Shadrick Byrd run for 6 yds to the CLT 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
96.3%
Terron Kellman run for 9 yds to the CLT 44Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 44
+8
96.3%
Jalon Jones run for 8 yds to the MD 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+48
95.5%
Jalon Jones pass complete to Jairus Mack for 48 yds for a TD (Kyle Cunanan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 2INT TD
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q1 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-16
95.3%
Demetrius Knight II 16 Yd Interception Return (Kyle Cunanan Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:5395% → 95%
Q1 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
95.3%
Roman Hemby run for 2 yds to the MD 27Similar
Q1 11:50
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
95.3%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:50
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
95.3%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:57
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
95.0%
Colton Spangler punt for 38 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 13 yds · 3:565% → 7%
Q1 10:57
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+9
94.9%
Durell Robinson run for 9 yds to the CLT 49Similar
Q1 10:57
2ND & 1
OWN 49
+3
94.9%
Jalon Jones run for 3 yds to the MD 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:57
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-1
94.9%
run for a loss of 1 yard to the MD 49Similar
Q1 10:57
2ND & 11
OPP 49
0
94.9%
Terron Kellman run for no gain to the MD 49Similar
Q1 10:57
3RD & 11
OPP 49
-5
95.0%
Charlotte Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the CLT 46Similar
Q1 10:57
3RD & 16
OWN 46
+7
95.0%
Jalon Jones pass complete to Sean Brown for 7 yds to the MD 47Similar
Q1 7:01
4TH & 9
OPP 47
0
93.1%
Grant Gonya punt for 47 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 2:0893% → 92%
Q1 7:01
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-2
93.3%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Octavian Smith Jr. for a loss of 2 yards to the MD 18Similar
Q1 7:01
2ND & 12
OWN 18
-1
93.3%
Roman Hemby run for a loss of 1 yard to the MD 17Similar
Q1 7:01
3RD & 13
OWN 17
-1
93.3%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Corey Dyches for a loss of 1 yard to the MD 16Similar
Q1 4:53
4TH & 14
OWN 16
0
92.1%
Colton Spangler punt for 49 yds, downed at the CLT 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 6PUNT
8 plays · 12 yds · 4:019% → 12%
Q1 4:07
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
91.4%
Jalon Jones run for 1 yd to the CLT 36Similar
Q1 4:07
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+1
91.3%
run for 1 yd to the CLT 37Similar
Q1 4:07
3RD & 8
OWN 37
+8
91.4%
Jalon Jones pass complete to Jack Hestera for 8 yds to the CLT 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:07
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
91.3%
Jalon Jones run for no gain to the CLT 45Similar
Q1 4:07
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+2
91.3%
Shadrick Byrd run for 2 yds to the CLT 47Similar
Q1 4:07
3RD & 8
OWN 47
0
91.3%
Jalon Jones run for no gain to the CLT 47Similar
Q1 0:06
4TH & 8
OWN 47
0
88.3%
Grant Gonya punt for 41 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 7FG
11 plays · 72 yds · 3:5189% → 87%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+17
88.7%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Jeshaun Jones for 17 yds to the MD 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+6
88.8%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Roman Hemby for 6 yds to the MD 37Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 37
+5
89.0%
Roman Hemby run for 5 yds to the MD 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+29
89.2%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Tai Felton for 29 yds to the CLT 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+4
89.4%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Corey Dyches for 4 yds to the CLT 25Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 25
+4
89.4%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Tai Felton for 4 yds to the CLT 21Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 21
+5
89.3%
Antwain Littleton II run for 5 yds to the CLT 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
89.4%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+2
89.4%
Antwain Littleton II run for 2 yds to the CLT 14Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 14
0
89.3%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:09
4TH & 8
OPP 14
+32
87.1%
Jack Howes 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 17 yds · 3:3514% → 17%
Q2 11:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
86.5%
Durell Robinson run for 9 yds to the CLT 34Similar
Q2 11:09
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+6
86.3%
Terron Kellman run for 6 yds to the CLT 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:09
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
86.1%
Jalon Jones run for 5 yds to the CLT 45Similar
Q2 11:09
2ND & 5
OWN 45
0
86.1%
Jalon Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:09
3RD & 5
OWN 45
-3
86.1%
Jalon Jones run for a loss of 3 yards to the CLT 42Similar
Q2 7:34
4TH & 8
OWN 42
0
83.0%
Grant Gonya punt for 43 yds , returns for no gain to the MD 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 9FG
11 plays · 51 yds · 4:0983% → 78%
Q2 7:34
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
82.9%
Roman Hemby run for 3 yds to the MD 32Similar
Q2 7:34
2ND & 7
OWN 32
+4
82.9%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Tai Felton for 4 yds to the MD 36Similar
Q2 7:34
3RD & 3
OWN 36
+10
82.8%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Kaden Prather for 10 yds to the MD 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:34
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+37
83.4%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Roman Hemby for 37 yds to the CLT 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:34
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+5
84.4%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Tai Felton for 5 yds to the CLT 12Similar
Q2 7:34
2ND & 5
OPP 12
+5
84.4%
Antwain Littleton II run for 5 yds to the CLT 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-15
79.6%
Maryland Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Antwain Littleton II) to the CLT 20Similar
Q2 3:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 20
0
79.2%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:45
3RD & GOAL
OPP 20
0
78.1%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:25
4TH & GOAL
OPP 20
+38
78.3%
Jack Howes 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 10PUNT
9 plays · 24 yds · 2:1721% → 25%
Q2 3:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
78.7%
Durell Robinson run for 3 yds to the CLT 28Similar
Q2 3:25
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+20
78.5%
Jalon Jones run for 20 yds to the CLT 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:25
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-5
77.4%
Charlotte Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the CLT 43Similar
Q2 1:30
1ST & 15
OWN 43
+2
74.6%
Jalon Jones pass complete to Colin Weber for 2 yds to the CLT 45Similar
Q2 1:30
2ND & 13
OWN 45
0
74.6%
Jalon Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:30
3RD & 13
OWN 45
+9
75.4%
Jalon Jones run for 9 yds to the MD 46Similar
Q2 1:30
4TH & 4
OPP 46
-5
74.1%
Charlotte Penalty, Delay Of Game (Jalon Jones) to the CLT 49Similar
Q2 1:08
4TH & 9
OWN 49
0
74.7%
Grant Gonya punt for 51 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 11FG
9 plays · 53 yds · 1:0875% → 82%
Q2 1:08
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
74.9%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Roman Hemby for 4 yds to the MD 24Similar
Q2 1:08
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+3
75.2%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Corey Dyches for 3 yds to the MD 27Similar
Q2 1:08
3RD & 3
OWN 27
+15
74.8%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Corey Dyches for 15 yds to the MD 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:08
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+10
76.6%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Kaden Prather for 10 yds to the CLT 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:08
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+16
77.7%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Rico Walker for 16 yds to the CLT 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:09
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-15
77.5%
TAGOVAILOA, Taulia pass deep to the left complete for 32 yards to PRATHER, Kaden caught at the CHA0 and advanced to the CHA0, TOUCHDOWN UMD, score nullified by penalty, clock 00:09 (Play was confirmed after review). PENALTY UMD Pass Interference on PRATHER, Kaden enforced 15 yards to the CHA47 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 0:01
1ST & 25
OPP 47
+20
75.4%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Kaden Prather for 20 yds to the CLT 27Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 5
OPP 27
+45
82.0%
Jack Howes 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 12TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 5:4280% → 86%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+40
79.8%
Roman Hemby run for 40 yds to the CLT 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-5
83.0%
TAGOVAILOA, Taulia pass up the middle complete for 10 yards to PRATHER, Kaden caught at the CHA28 and advanced to the CHA25 (JONES, Wayne;BALFOUR, Dontae). PENALTY UMD Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on BULLOCK, Corey enforced 5 yards from the CHA35 to the CHA40 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 15
OPP 40
+8
81.1%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Roman Hemby for 8 yds to the CLT 32Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 32
+6
83.0%
Roman Hemby run for 6 yds to the CLT 26Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 26
-2
81.9%
Billy Edwards Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the CLT 24 fumbled, recovered by MD Roman Hemby for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+14
83.0%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Jeshaun Jones for 14 yds to the CLT 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-5
83.0%
Taulia Tagovailoa run for a loss of 5 yards to the CLT 15Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 15
+14
82.6%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Jeshaun Jones for 14 yds to the CLT 1Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
81.9%
Roman Hemby run for no gain to the CLT 1Similar
Q3 9:18
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
86.1%
Billy Edwards Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD (Taulia Tagovailoa pass to Tai Felton for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · 13 yds · 2:3516% → 16%
Q3 9:14
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+9
84.4%
Durell Robinson run for 9 yds to the CLT 37Similar
Q3 9:14
2ND & 1
OWN 37
+8
83.4%
Jalon Jones pass complete to Duane Thomas Jr. for 8 yds to the CLT 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:14
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+1
83.0%
Durell Robinson run for 1 yd to the CLT 46Similar
Q3 9:14
2ND & 9
OWN 46
0
83.0%
Jalon Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:14
3RD & 9
OWN 46
-5
83.9%
Jalon Jones sacked by Jaishawn Barham for a loss of 5 yards to the CLT 41Similar
Q3 6:39
4TH & 14
OWN 41
0
84.1%
Grant Gonya punt for 41 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 14INT
10 plays · 52 yds · 3:2184% → 85%
Q3 6:39
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
84.2%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Corey Dyches for 5 yds to the MD 35Similar
Q3 6:39
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+6
84.9%
Roman Hemby run for 6 yds to the MD 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:39
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+7
85.3%
Roman Hemby run for 7 yds to the MD 48Similar
Q3 6:39
2ND & 3
OWN 48
0
85.8%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:39
3RD & 3
OWN 48
+20
85.2%
Roman Hemby run for 20 yds to the CLT 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:39
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
86.6%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:39
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+8
86.6%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Octavian Smith Jr. for 8 yds to the CLT 24Similar
Q3 6:39
3RD & 2
OPP 24
+1
85.8%
Colby McDonald run for 1 yd to the CLT 23Similar
Q3 6:39
4TH & 1
OPP 23
0
84.9%
QB Keeper EDWARDS JR., Billy rush up the middle for a gain of 1 yard to the CHA22 (BEMAH, Prince). PENALTY CHA Illegal Substitution declined CHA Offsides on KELLY, Michael enforced 5 yards from the CHA23 to the CHA18 and results in a 1ST DOWN [NH]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 3:18
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
84.9%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass intercepted, touchback.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 15 yds · 2:1218% → 18%
Q3 3:18
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+16
81.6%
Jalon Jones pass complete to Colin Weber for 16 yds to the CLT 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:18
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
80.7%
Durell Robinson run for 2 yds to the CLT 38Similar
Q3 3:18
2ND & 8
OWN 38
0
80.0%
Terron Kellman run for no gain to the CLT 38Similar
Q3 3:18
3RD & 8
OWN 38
-3
80.8%
Jalon Jones sacked by Jaishawn Barham for a loss of 3 yards to the CLT 35Similar
Q3 1:06
4TH & 11
OWN 35
0
82.1%
Grant Gonya punt for 48 yds, downed at the MD 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 16TD
10 plays · 83 yds · 4:1180% → 93%
Q3 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+1
80.4%
Roman Hemby run for 1 yd to the MD 18Similar
Q3 1:06
2ND & 9
OWN 18
+5
80.2%
Roman Hemby run for 5 yds to the MD 23Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 4
OWN 23
+12
78.5%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Octavian Smith Jr. for 12 yds to the MD 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
80.1%
Roman Hemby run for 2 yds to the MD 37Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+4
80.5%
Roman Hemby run for 4 yds to the MD 41Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 41
+5
80.8%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Corey Dyches for 5 yds to the MD 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+10
82.0%
Colby McDonald run for 10 yds to the CLT 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+18
82.6%
Colby McDonald run for 18 yds to the CLT 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+3
83.3%
Colby McDonald run for 3 yds to the CLT 23Similar
Q4 11:55
2ND & 7
OPP 23
+23
92.6%
Colby McDonald run for 23 yds for a TD (Jack Howes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 17INT
5 plays · 47 yds · 2:339% → 10%
Q4 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
91.1%
Jalon Jones pass complete to Colin Weber for 11 yds to the CLT 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-7
90.1%
Jalon Jones sacked by Kobi Thomas for a loss of 7 yards to the CLT 29Similar
Q4 11:55
2ND & 17
OWN 29
+48
91.3%
Jalon Jones run for 48 yds to the MD 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:55
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-5
87.8%
ROBINSON, Durell rush up the middle for no gain to the UMD23 (GOTAY, Fa'Najae). PENALTY Before the snap, CHA Illegal Formation enforced 5 yards from the UMD23 to the UMD28. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 9:22
1ST & 15
OPP 28
0
90.0%
Jalon Jones pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 18TD
3 plays · 55 yds · 1:1692% → 98%
Q4 9:22
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+6
92.1%
Roman Hemby run for 6 yds to the CLT 49Similar
Q4 9:22
2ND & 4
OPP 49
+9
92.2%
Roman Hemby run for 9 yds to the CLT 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:06
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+40
97.9%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Kaden Prather for 40 yds for a TD (Jack Howes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 19FUMBLE
7 plays · 18 yds · 2:053% → 2%
Q4 8:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
97.5%
Jalon Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:06
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+16
97.5%
Jalon Jones pass complete to Jack Hestera for 16 yds to the CLT 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:06
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
97.3%
Jalon Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:06
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+15
97.4%
JONES, Jalon pass deep to the right incomplete intended for MACK, Jairus thrown to the UMD25. PENALTY UMD Pass Interference on COLEY JR., Corey enforced 15 yards to the UMD44 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 8:06
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
97.3%
Jalon Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:06
2ND & 10
OPP 44
-2
97.3%
Jalon Jones run for a loss of 2 yards to the MD 46Similar
Q4 6:01
3RD & 12
OPP 46
-11
97.6%
Jalon Jones run for a loss of 11 yards to the CLT 43 Jalon Jones fumbled, recovered by MD Sean GreeleySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 20TD
4 plays · 43 yds · 1:2698% → 99%
Q4 6:01
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+24
98.2%
Roman Hemby run for 24 yds to the CLT 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:01
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+4
98.2%
Roman Hemby run for 4 yds to the CLT 15Similar
Q4 6:01
2ND & 6
OPP 15
0
98.2%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:35
3RD & 6
OPP 15
+15
99.4%
Roman Hemby run for 15 yds for a TD (Jack Howes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 21TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 3:131% → 2%
Q4 4:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
99.5%
Trexler Ivey pass complete to Jack Hestera for 12 yds to the CLT 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:35
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
99.5%
Trexler Ivey pass complete to Jairus Mack for 5 yds to the CLT 42Similar
Q4 4:35
2ND & 5
OWN 42
0
99.5%
Terron Kellman run for no gain to the CLT 42Similar
Q4 4:35
3RD & 5
OWN 42
+3
99.5%
Trexler Ivey pass complete to Jack Hestera for 3 yds to the CLT 45Similar
Q4 4:35
4TH & 2
OWN 45
+16
99.5%
Trexler Ivey pass complete to Jairus Mack for 16 yds to the MD 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:35
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+37
99.4%
Trexler Ivey pass complete to Jairus Mack for 37 yds to the MD 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
99.4%
Trexler Ivey run for no gain to the MD 2Similar
Q4 1:22
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
99.5%
Joachim Bangda run for 1 yd to the MD 1Similar
Q4 1:22
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
98.2%
Joachim Bangda 1 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 22END OF GAME
3 plays · 18 yds · 1:2099% → 99%
Q4 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+5
99.2%
Colby McDonald run for 5 yds to the MD 39Similar
Q4 1:20
2ND & 5
OWN 39
+7
99.3%
Colby McDonald run for 7 yds to the MD 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+6
99.3%
Colby McDonald run for 6 yds to the CLT 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 11:55
Colby McDonald run for 23 yds for a TD (Jack Howes KICK)
+9.3
FG · Q2 0:00
Jack Howes 45 yd FG GOOD
+6.5
TD · Q4 8:06
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Kaden Prather for 40 yds for a TD (Jack Howes KICK)
+5.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com