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Win probability · LSU
modelLSU aheadGRAM aheadconfidence bandkey playLSU scoreGRAM score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 9:30 · Garrett Nussmeier run for 1 yd for a TD Grambling Penalty, UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (Josh Darling) to the GRAM 0 (Damian Ramos KICK)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factor
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 9:15: Myles Crawley pass complete to JR Waters for 13 yds for a TD (Tanner Rinker KICK) — GRAM win probability +0.1 pts (now 0%) (top driver: GRAM has the ball).
- FG · Q1 2:21: Tanner Rinker 23 yd FG GOOD — GRAM win probability +0.1 pts (now 1%) (top driver: GRAM has the ball).
- TD · Q2 14:17: Jayden Daniels pass complete to Malik Nabers for 7 yds for a TD (Damian Ramos KICK) — LSU win probability +0.1 pts (now 99%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 2:00: Jayden Daniels pass complete to Brian Thomas Jr. for 10 yds for a TD — LSU win probability +0.4 pts (now 100%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:01: Jayden Daniels pass complete to Kyren Lacy for 3 yds for a TD (Damian Ramos KICK) — LSU win probability +0.2 pts (now 100%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
LSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 3GRAM made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
- Q1 2:21GRAM 4th & 6 at LSU 6, down 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.6% before the snapGo for it0.6%−<0.131% to convertField goalTheir call0.6%91% to makePunt0.1%−0.5average punt
- Q2 11:39GRAM 4th & 6 at LSU 6, down 11Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.9% before the snapGo for it0.8%−<0.131% to convertField goalTheir call0.9%91% to makePunt0.4%−0.4average punt
- Q2 5:51GRAM 4th & 6 at GRAM 27, down 18Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.8% before the snapGo for it0.8%−0.139% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.8%average punt
- Q2 1:16GRAM 4th & 10 at GRAM 38, down 25Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.8% before the snapGo for it0.7%−0.129% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.8%average punt
- Q3 9:30LSU 4th & 1 at GRAM 1, up 32Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.8%59% to convertField goal99.7%−0.294% to makePunt99.2%−0.7average punt
- Q3 8:08GRAM 4th & 14 at GRAM 5, down 39Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it-0.1%−0.216% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q3 8:08LSU 4th & 2 at GRAM 9, up 39Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.9%54% to convertField goal99.8%−0.189% to makePunt99.4%−0.5average punt
- Q3 2:24GRAM 4th & 11 at GRAM 18, down 46Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it-0.0%−0.125% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 4:19LSU 4th & 5 at GRAM 24, up 62Close callWent for it · 100.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.9%−<0.141% to convertField goal99.9%68% to makePunt99.6%−0.3average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
LSU made the numbers' call on 10 of 10GRAM made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q1 12:16LSU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.8%97% to makeGo for two99.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 9:15GRAM Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call0.5%97% to makeGo for two0.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 8:24LSU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.7%97% to makeGo for two99.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 14:17LSU Touchdown, up 10 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.3%97% to makeGo for two99.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 7:22LSU Touchdown, up 17 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.3%97% to makeGo for two99.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 2:00LSU Touchdown, up 24 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.5%97% to makeGo for two99.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:01LSU Touchdown, up 31 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 9:30LSU Touchdown, up 38 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 4:47LSU Touchdown, up 45 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 13:30LSU Touchdown, up 52 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.1%97% to makeGo for two100.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 10:39LSU Touchdown, up 59 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.1%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartLSUDrive 1TD10 plays · 77 yds · 2:40100% → 100%
Q1 14:56
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+21
99.8%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Kyren Lacy for 21 yds to the GRAM 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
99.8%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Mason Taylor for no gain to the GRAM 44Similar
Q1 14:56
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+5
99.8%
PENALTY GSU Offside (Hardy,Jaden) 5 yards from GSU44 to GSU39. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 14:56
2ND & 5
OPP 39
+7
99.8%
Logan Diggs run for 7 yds to the GRAM 32 for a 1ST down Grambling Penalty, Defensive Offside (Josh Darling) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:56
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+6
99.8%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Chris Hilton Jr. for 6 yds to the GRAM 26Similar
Q1 12:16
3RD & 4
OPP 26
+26
99.7%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Brian Thomas Jr. for 26 yds for a TD (Damian Ramos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GRAMDrive 2TD9 plays · 83 yds · 2:560% → 0%
Q1 12:11
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+34
99.7%
Myles Crawley pass complete to Antonio Jones for 34 yds to the LSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:11
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
99.7%
Myles Crawley pass complete to Antonio Jones for 3 yds to the LSU 46Similar
Q1 12:11
2ND & 7
OPP 46
-5
99.7%
PENALTY GSU False Start (Jones,Antonio) 5 yards from LSU46 to GSU49. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 12:11
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+15
99.7%
Myles Crawley pass complete to Nae'Saan Dickerson for 15 yds to the LSU 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:15
2ND & 9
OPP 13
+13
99.6%
Myles Crawley pass complete to JR Waters for 13 yds for a TD (Tanner Rinker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 3TD4 plays · 76 yds · 0:45100% → 100%
GRAMDrive 4FG16 plays · 80 yds · 5:590% → 1%
Q1 8:20
2ND & 6
OWN 18
+8
99.6%
Myles Crawley pass complete to Antonio Jones for 8 yds to the GRAM 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:55
3RD & 10
OWN 26
-5
99.6%
PENALTY GSU False Start (Priestly,Melvin) 5 yards from GSU26 to GSU21. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 6:55
2ND & 4
OPP 24
+16
99.6%
Myles Crawley pass complete to Antonio Jones for 16 yds to the LSU 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:06
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
99.5%
Myles Crawley pass complete to Chance Williams for 2 yds to the LSU 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 5TD8 plays · 69 yds · 2:5499% → 99%
Q1 2:11
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+30
99.3%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Malik Nabers for 30 yds to the GRAM 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 13
+6
99.3%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Malik Nabers for 6 yds to the GRAM 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
99.4%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Malik Nabers for 7 yds for a TD (Damian Ramos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GRAMDrive 6MISSED FG11 plays · 69 yds · 2:381% → 1%
Q2 14:17
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+15
99.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun Crawley,Myles pass incomplete deep right to Dickerson,Nae'Saan PENALTY LSU Pass Interference (Harris,Denver) 15 yards from GSU25 to GSU40, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:17
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+25
99.3%
Myles Crawley pass complete to Javon Robinson for 25 yds to the LSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 7TD10 plays · 80 yds · 4:1799% → 99%
Q2 11:39
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+13
99.2%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Brian Thomas Jr. for 13 yds to the LSU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
99.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun Daniels,Jayden pass incomplete short right to Nabers,Malik PENALTY GSU Offside (Lewis,Lane) 4 yards from GSU08 to GSU04. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GRAMDrive 8PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 1:261% → 1%
Q2 7:17
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+5
99.3%
Myles Crawley pass complete to Antonio Jones for 5 yds to the GRAM 28Similar
Q2 7:17
2ND & 5
OWN 28
-15
99.3%
Grambling Penalty, UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (-15 Yards) to the GRAM 16Similar
Q2 7:17
3RD & 17
OWN 16
+11
99.3%
Myles Crawley pass complete to Tylon Williams for 11 yds to the GRAM 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 9TD11 plays · 70 yds · 3:5199% → 100%
Q2 5:51
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+38
99.3%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Kyren Lacy for 38 yds Kyren Lacy fumbled, recovered by LSU Kyren Lacy for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:51
2ND & 2
OPP 24
-5
99.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun Daniels,Jayden pass complete short left to Nabers,Malik for 1 yard to the GSU23 (Anderson,Cedric; Darling,Josh) PENALTY LSU Illegal Formation 5 yards from GSU24 to GSU29. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
99.2%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Aaron Anderson for no gain to the GRAM 10Similar
Q2 2:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
99.7%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Brian Thomas Jr. for 10 yds for a TDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GRAMDrive 10PUNT9 plays · 13 yds · 0:441% → 1%
LSUDrive 11TD12 plays · 85 yds · 1:15100% → 100%
Q2 1:16
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+15
99.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun Daniels,Jayden pass incomplete deep right to Hilton Jr.,Chris PENALTY GSU Pass Interference (Henry,Trent) 15 yards from LSU15 to LSU30, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:16
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+18
99.7%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Logan Diggs for 18 yds to the LSU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:16
2ND & 3
OPP 45
+4
99.7%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Brian Thomas Jr. for 4 yds to the GRAM 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:16
3RD & 10
OPP 41
+15
99.7%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Malik Nabers for 15 yds to the GRAM 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:16
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+23
99.7%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Brian Thomas Jr. for 23 yds to the GRAM 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
99.9%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Kyren Lacy for 3 yds for a TD (Damian Ramos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GRAMDrive 12INT7 plays · 16 yds · 2:310% → 0%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
99.8%
Myles Crawley pass complete to Floyd Chalk IV for 2 yds to the GRAM 23Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+12
99.8%
Myles Crawley pass complete to Lyndon Rash for 12 yds to the GRAM 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
99.8%
Myles Crawley pass complete to Antonio Jones for 6 yds to the GRAM 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 13TD6 plays · 54 yds · 2:59100% → 100%
Q3 12:29
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+29
99.9%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Malik Nabers for 29 yds to the GRAM 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:30
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.9%
Garrett Nussmeier run for 1 yd for a TD Grambling Penalty, UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (Josh Darling) to the GRAM 0 (Damian Ramos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GRAMDrive 14PUNT7 plays · -4 yds · 1:180% → 0%
LSUDrive 15TD7 plays · 29 yds · 3:21100% → 100%
Q3 8:08
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+3
99.9%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Aaron Anderson for 3 yds to the GRAM 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GRAMDrive 16PUNT7 plays · -1 yds · 2:130% → 0%
Q3 4:37
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-5
100.0%
PENALTY GSU False Start (Priestly,Melvin) 5 yards from GSU19 to GSU14. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:37
1ST & 15
OWN 14
+9
100.0%
Julian Calvez pass complete to Antonio Jones for 9 yds to the GRAM 23Similar
Q3 4:37
2ND & 6
OWN 23
-5
100.0%
PENALTY GSU False Start (Hornsby,Codie) 5 yards from GSU23 to GSU18. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:37
3RD & 10
OWN 19
-1
100.0%
Julian Calvez sacked by Jordan Jefferson for a loss of 1 yard to the GRAM 18Similar
Q3 2:24
4TH & 11
OWN 18
0
100.0%
Jimmy Iles punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Aaron Anderson at the LSU 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 17TD11 plays · 58 yds · 3:54100% → 100%
GRAMDrive 18FUMBLE4 plays · -1 yds · 0:450% → 0%
LSUDrive 19TD6 plays · 20 yds · 1:59100% → 100%
Q4 12:38
2ND & 4
OPP 14
+2
100.0%
Rickie Collins pass complete to Aaron Anderson for 2 yds to the GRAM 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GRAMDrive 20SF7 plays · -25 yds · 1:240% → 0%
Q4 10:39
4TH & 12
OWN 23
-5
100.0%
PENALTY GSU False Start (Johnson,Marcellius) 5 yards from GSU23 to GSU18. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 21DOWNS9 plays · 38 yds · 4:49100% → 100%
Q4 9:08
3RD & 6
OPP 25
+1
100.0%
Rickie Collins pass complete to Ka'Morreun Pimpton for 1 yd to the GRAM 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GRAMDrive 22END OF GAME9 plays · 51 yds · 4:190% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 2:00
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Brian Thomas Jr. for 10 yds for a TD
+0.4
TD · Q2 0:01
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Kyren Lacy for 3 yds for a TD (Damian Ramos KICK)
+0.2
TD · Q1 9:15
Myles Crawley pass complete to JR Waters for 13 yds for a TD (Tanner Rinker KICK)
-0.1