2023 · Week 2 · Sep 9, 2023 · Williams Stadium (VA)
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Win probability · LIB
modelLIB aheadNMSU aheadconfidence bandkey playLIB scoreNMSU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 5:23 · Zach Haynes punt for 40 yds, downed at the LIB 29
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 8:40: Kaidon Salter run for 3 yds for a TD (Teagen Lenderink PAT BLOCKED) — LIB win probability +5.4 pts (now 70%) (top driver: LIB has the ball).
- TD · Q2 5:18: Diego Pavia pass complete to Trent Hudson for 13 yds for a TD (Ethan Albertson KICK) — NMSU win probability +8.8 pts (now 45%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 2:13: Kaidon Salter pass complete to Bentley Hanshaw for 24 yds for a TD (Nick Brown KICK) — LIB win probability +9.9 pts (now 73%) (top driver: LIB has the ball).
- TD · Q3 5:57: Kaidon Salter run for 2 yds for a TD (Nick Brown KICK) — LIB win probability +13.1 pts (now 89%) (top driver: LIB has the ball).
- FG · Q3 1:24: Teagen Lenderink 29 yd FG GOOD — LIB win probability +6.5 pts (now 95%) (top driver: LIB has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
LIB made the numbers' call on 3 of 4NMSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
- Q1 5:23NMSU 4th & 3 at NMSU 31, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.0% before the snapGo for it31.2%−0.152% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call31.3%average punt
- Q2 12:32NMSU 4th & 4 at LIB 17, tiedClose callKicked a field goal · 31.2% before the snapGo for it31.0%47% to convertField goalTheir call30.9%−0.180% to makePunt28.3%−2.7average punt
- Q2 0:16LIB 4th & 5 at NMSU 5, up 3Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 70.9% before the snapGo for it70.4%−0.633% to convertField goalTheir call71.0%92% to makePunt66.1%−4.9average punt
- Q3 1:24LIB 4th & 5 at NMSU 11, up 13Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 90.7% before the snapGo for it90.0%−0.137% to convertField goalTheir call90.2%87% to makePunt83.7%−6.5average punt
- Q3 0:32NMSU 4th & 13 at NMSU 22, down 16Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.2% before the snapGo for it6.4%−1.419% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call7.9%average punt
- Q4 13:36LIB 4th & 11 at LIB 48, up 16Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.3% before the snapGo for it94.2%−0.626% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call94.8%average punt
- Q4 5:28LIB 4th & 3 at LIB 29, up 16Close callPunted · 96.8% before the snapGo for it96.9%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call96.7%−0.2average punt
- Q4 3:55NMSU 4th & 5 at LIB 30, down 16Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call3.2%41% to convertField goal3.1%−0.156% to makePunt2.6%−0.5average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
LIB made the numbers' call on 4 of 4NMSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q1 11:22NMSU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call27.2%97% to makeGo for two27.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 2:08LIB Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call70.6%97% to makeGo for two70.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 8:40LIB Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · missedKickTheir call71.8%97% to makeGo for two71.7%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 5:18NMSU Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call37.6%97% to makeGo for two37.5%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 2:13LIB Touchdown, up 2 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call71.2%97% to makeGo for two71.0%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 5:57LIB Touchdown, up 12 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call87.9%97% to makeGo for two87.8%−0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartNMSUDrive 1TD6 plays · 75 yds · 3:3832% → 34%
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+15
68.4%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Chris Bellamy for 15 yds Chris Bellamy fumbled, recovered by NMSU Chris Bellamy for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 2FUMBLE10 plays · 46 yds · 4:1467% → 65%
Q1 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+21
66.6%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Bentley Hanshaw for 21 yds to the NMSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:15
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-10
67.0%
SALTER, Kaidon pass deep up the middle complete for 15 yards to FRITH, Noah caught at the NMS21 and advanced to the NMS22 (SCULARK, BJ). PENALTY LIB Holding on WHITE, Jordan enforced 10 yards from the NMS37 to the NMS47 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 11:15
1ST & 20
OPP 47
+5
66.8%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Treon Sibley for 5 yds to the NMSU 42Similar
Q1 7:01
2ND & 6
OPP 20
-4
65.4%
Kaidon Salter run for a loss of 4 yards to the NMSU 24 Kaidon Salter fumbled, recovered by NMSU Malachi McLeanSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 3PUNT5 plays · 7 yds · 1:3836% → 37%
Q1 7:01
3RD & 9
OWN 25
+6
64.7%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Monte Watkins for 6 yds to the NMSU 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 4TD6 plays · 71 yds · 3:1562% → 68%
NMSUDrive 5FG13 plays · 69 yds · 4:3034% → 38%
Q1 2:02
2ND & 2
OWN 22
+12
65.3%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Star Thomas for 12 yds to the NMSU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:02
2ND & 10
OWN 34
-10
65.4%
QB Keeper STOWERS, Eli rush to the left for a gain of 7 yards to the NMS41 (BISHOP, Brandon), out of bounds. PENALTY NMS Holding on VAIPULU, AJ enforced 10 yards from the NMS34 to the NMS24 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 20
OWN 24
+29
65.8%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Jordan Smith for 29 yds to the LIB 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 38
+15
63.3%
STOWERS, Eli pass deep to the right intercepted by HODGE, Preston at the LIB10 intended for DERVIL, J.J.. Hodge return for 0 yards to the LIB10, End of Play. PENALTY LIB Pass Interference on HODGE, Preston enforced 15 yards to the LIB23 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 6TD8 plays · 75 yds · 3:5262% → 70%
Q2 12:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
61.6%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Aaron Bedgood for 4 yds to the LIB 29Similar
Q2 12:32
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+5
61.8%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Vaughn Blue for 5 yds to the LIB 34Similar
Q2 12:32
3RD & 6
OWN 39
+60
61.9%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to CJ Daniels for 60 yds to the NMSU 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
69.8%
Kaidon Salter run for 3 yds for a TD (Teagen Lenderink PAT BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 7TD6 plays · 75 yds · 3:2233% → 45%
Q2 8:40
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
67.1%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Ron Tiavaasue for 6 yds to the NMSU 31Similar
Q2 8:40
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+52
66.9%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Chris Bellamy for 52 yds to the LIB 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:18
3RD & 6
OPP 13
+13
54.7%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Trent Hudson for 13 yds for a TD (Ethan Albertson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 8TD8 plays · 75 yds · 3:0560% → 73%
NMSUDrive 9INT2 plays · 21 yds · 0:2532% → 35%
LIBDrive 10FG12 plays · 80 yds · 1:3270% → 74%
Q2 1:48
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+5
69.8%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Austin Henderson for 5 yds to the LIB 20Similar
Q2 1:48
2ND & 5
OWN 20
+29
69.7%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Noah Frith for 29 yds to the LIB 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:01
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+23
71.8%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to CJ Daniels for 23 yds to the NMSU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 11END OF HALF1 play · -1 yds · 0:0024% → 24%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
75.6%
[NHSG] Kneel down by PAVIA, Diego at NMS24 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 12TD18 plays · 75 yds · 9:0374% → 89%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+9
75.7%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Treon Sibley for 9 yds to the NMSU 33Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 33
+6
75.8%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to CJ Daniels for 6 yds to the NMSU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
75.0%
SALTER, Kaidon pass short to the right incomplete intended for FRITH, Noah thrown to the NMS0. PENALTY NMS Pass Interference on EARLY, Dylan enforced 3 yards to the NMS2 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 13FUMBLE4 plays · 14 yds · 1:0614% → 14%
LIBDrive 14FG9 plays · 22 yds · 3:0289% → 95%
NMSUDrive 15PUNT5 plays · -3 yds · 0:529% → 8%
LIBDrive 16PUNT6 plays · 14 yds · 1:2496% → 96%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 17INT12 plays · 54 yds · 4:159% → 7%
Q4 13:36
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
91.5%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Chris Bellamy for 7 yds to the NMSU 27Similar
Q4 13:36
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-1
90.7%
Diego Pavia sacked by CJ Bazile Jr. and Bryce Dixon for a loss of 1 yard to the NMSU 42Similar
Q4 13:36
2ND & 11
OWN 42
+7
90.8%
Diego Pavia pass complete to PJ Johnson III for 7 yds to the NMSU 49Similar
Q4 13:36
2ND & 5
OPP 31
+4
88.7%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Trent Hudson for 4 yds to the LIB 27Similar
Q4 10:16
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-7
91.9%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Jonathan Brady for a loss of 7 yards to the LIB 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 18PUNT8 plays · 18 yds · 3:5399% → 99%
Q4 9:21
2ND & 7
OWN 25
0
98.5%
SALTER, Kaidon pass deep to the right complete for 26 yards to FRITH, Noah caught at the LIB48 and advanced to the NMS49, out of bounds. PENALTY LIB Pass Interference on FRITH, Noah enforced half the distance from the goal, 12 yards to the LIB13 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 19DOWNS7 plays · 45 yds · 1:334% → 3%
LIBDrive 20END OF GAME7 plays · 36 yds · 3:5599% → 100%
Q4 3:55
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+15
99.4%
SALTER, Kaidon pass deep up the middle incomplete intended for HENDERSON, Austin thrown to the NMS26. PENALTY NMS Roughing the Passer on PETERSON, Gabe enforced 15 yards from the LIB35 to the LIB50 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 10
OPP 33
0
99.5%
[NHSG] Kneel down by SALTER, Kaidon at NMS34 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 5:57
Kaidon Salter run for 2 yds for a TD (Nick Brown KICK)
+13.1
TD · Q2 2:13
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Bentley Hanshaw for 24 yds for a TD (Nick Brown KICK)
+9.9
TD · Q2 5:18
Diego Pavia pass complete to Trent Hudson for 13 yds for a TD (Ethan Albertson KICK)
-8.8