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NWST

Northwestern State 21 at Louisiana Tech 51

LT
2023 · Week 2 · Sep 9, 2023 · Joe Aillet Stadium
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Win probability · LT
modelLT aheadNWST aheadconfidence bandkey playLT scoreNWST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDFGEnd of GameFG+2.4LT 92.9%Jacob Barnes 36 yd FG GOODAWAY 21 - HOME 34 · Q3 9:45
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 9:45 · Jacob Barnes 36 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout marginGarbage-time factor
+44.0+22.00−22.0−44.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 117Pregame prior+23.0Home team on offense+15.2Score differential+7.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.9Blowout margin−0.7Garbage-time factor+5.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 11:41: Keith Willis Jr. run for 65 yds for a TD (Jacob Barnes KICK) — LT win probability +4.3 pts (now 94%) (top driver: Lead backed by the offense's own timeouts).
  2. TD · Q2 5:41: Tyler Vander Waal run for 9 yds for a TD (Brett Money KICK) — NWST win probability +3.3 pts (now 13%) (top driver: Defense has -2 timeouts left).
  3. TD · Q2 3:18: Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Koby Duru for 11 yds for a TD (Jacob Barnes KICK) — LT win probability +3.0 pts (now 92%) (top driver: LT has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 13:37: Kolbe Burrell run for 2 yds for a TD (Brett Money KICK) — NWST win probability +4.0 pts (now 11%) (top driver: NWST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 8:06: Keith Willis Jr. run for 68 yds for a TD (Jacob Barnes KICK) — LT win probability +4.8 pts (now 97%) (top driver: LT has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
LT made the numbers' call on 5 of 7NWST made the numbers' call on 7 of 10
  1. Q1 12:22NWST 4th & 13 at NWST 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.0%−0.1
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.1%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:12NWST 4th & 16 at NWST 19, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.2%−0.2
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.3%
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:57LT 4th & 5 at NWST 5, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 91.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.3%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    91.3%
    92% to make
    Punt
    90.7%−0.6
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:40NWST 4th & 5 at LT 43, down 10
    Close callPunted · 9.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.2%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    9.0%−0.3
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    9.1%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:40LT 4th & 1 at LT 20, up 10
    Close callPunted · 90.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.1%−0.5
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:05LT 4th & 2 at LT 43, up 3
    Close callPunted · 87.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.8%−0.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 11:50NWST 4th & 5 at NWST 45, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.4%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.5%
    average punt
  8. Q2 11:03NWST 4th & 7 at NWST 28, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.5%−0.2
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.7%
    average punt
  9. Q2 10:15LT 4th & 14 at LT 37, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.6%−0.8
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.4%
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:25NWST 4th & 20 at NWST 43, down 10
    Close callWent for it · 10.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.4%−0.8
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    10.2%
    average punt
  11. Q3 9:45LT 4th & 11 at NWST 19, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 89.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.3%−0.9
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    89.1%
    77% to make
    Punt
    85.5%−3.6
    average punt
  12. Q3 8:17NWST 4th & 20 at NWST 25, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.5%−1.3
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.8%
    average punt
  13. Q3 5:19NWST 4th & 4 at LT 30, down 27
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    0.4%−0.1
    56% to make
    Punt
    0.2%−0.3
    average punt
  14. Q3 1:18LT 4th & 15 at NWST 15, up 27
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.5%−0.3
    15% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.7%
    83% to make
    Punt
    98.9%−0.8
    average punt
  15. Q4 9:48LT 4th & 24 at NWST 45, up 30
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.7%−0.2
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    99.8%−0.1
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
  16. Q4 7:06NWST 4th & 3 at NWST 30, down 30
    Close callPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 2:02NWST 4th & 12 at NWST 29, down 30
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.0%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
LT made the numbers' call on 6 of 6NWST made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 10:28LT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 0:32NWST Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    11.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    11.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 11:41LT Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 5:41NWST Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    14.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    14.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 3:18LT Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 1:17LT Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 13:37NWST Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    9.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    9.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 8:06LT Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 7:52LT Touchdown, up 26 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NWSTDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 22 yds · 2:386% → 7%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
93.6%
Tyler Vander Waal run for 7 yds to the NWST 32Similar
Q1 14:36
2ND & 3
OWN 32
0
93.5%
Tyler Vander Waal pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:23
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+7
93.5%
Tyler Vander Waal run for 7 yds to the NWST 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:23
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+11
93.4%
Tyler Vander Waal run for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:23
1ST & 10
50
+1
93.4%
Kolbe Burrell run for 1 yd to the LT 49Similar
Q1 13:19
2ND & 9
OPP 49
0
93.2%
Tyler Vander Waal pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:12
3RD & 9
OPP 49
-4
93.1%
Tyler Vander Waal sacked by Rason Williams II for a loss of 4 yards to the NWST 47Similar
Q1 12:22
4TH & 13
OWN 47
0
93.0%
Brett Money punt for 27 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 2TD
5 plays · 74 yds · 1:5493% → 93%
Q1 12:22
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+12
93.0%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Koby Duru for 12 yds to the LT 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:59
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
92.9%
Charvis Thornton run for 2 yds to the LT 40Similar
Q1 11:20
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+15
92.8%
(11:20) BACHMEIER, Hank pass deep to the right incomplete intended for DURU, Koby thrown to the NSU35. PENALTY NSU Pass Interference on RHONE, Cadillac enforced 15 yards to the NSU45 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 11:08
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
92.8%
Tyre Shelton run for 4 yds to the NWST 41Similar
Q1 10:28
2ND & 6
OPP 41
+41
93.1%
Tyre Shelton run for 41 yds for a TD (Jacob Barnes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NWSTDrive 3PUNT
8 plays · -6 yds · 2:167% → 7%
Q1 10:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
92.9%
Kennieth Lacy run for 5 yds to the NWST 30Similar
Q1 10:28
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-5
92.9%
Northwestern State Penalty, False Start (Anthony Richard) to the NWST 25Similar
Q1 10:28
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-10
92.9%
MITCHELL, Jaren rush to the right for a gain of 5 yards to the NSU30 (SINGLETON, Cecil;RANDLE, Brevin). PENALTY NSU Holding on JOSEPH, Justus enforced 10 yards from the NSU25 to the NSU15 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 10:28
2ND & 20
OWN 15
+11
92.9%
Tyler Vander Waal pass complete to Dennis Smith for 11 yds to the NWST 26Similar
Q1 10:28
3RD & 9
OWN 26
-10
93.0%
QB Keeper VANDER WAAL, Tyler rush up the middle for a gain of 15 yards to the NSU41, out of bounds. PENALTY NSU Holding on RICHARD, D'Andre enforced 10 yards from the NSU26 to the NSU16 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 8:36
3RD & 19
OWN 16
+3
92.7%
Tyler Vander Waal run for 3 yds to the NWST 19Similar
Q1 8:12
4TH & 16
OWN 19
0
92.7%
Brett Money punt for 28 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 4FG
5 plays · 42 yds · 1:5293% → 92%
Q1 7:49
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+42
93.0%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Kyle Maxwell for 42 yds to the NWST 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
92.8%
Charvis Thornton run for 1 yd to the NWST 4Similar
Q1 6:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
-1
92.8%
Charvis Thornton run for a loss of 1 yard to the NWST 5Similar
Q1 6:15
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
92.6%
Hank Bachmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:57
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+22
92.4%
Jacob Barnes 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NWSTDrive 5PUNT
7 plays · 37 yds · 2:118% → 8%
Q1 5:51
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
92.2%
Darius Boone Jr. run for 3 yds to the NWST 23Similar
Q1 5:30
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+29
92.2%
Darius Boone Jr. run for 29 yds to the LT 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:30
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
91.9%
Darius Boone Jr. run for 2 yds to the LT 46Similar
Q1 4:40
2ND & 8
OPP 46
+3
91.7%
Darius Boone Jr. run for 3 yds to the LT 43Similar
Q1 4:07
3RD & 5
OPP 43
0
91.5%
Darius Boone Jr. run for no gain to the LT 43Similar
Q1 3:40
4TH & 5
OPP 43
0
91.8%
Brett Money punt for 36 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:2594% → 93%
Q1 3:05
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+6
93.7%
Tyre Shelton run for 6 yds to the LT 17Similar
Q1 2:43
2ND & 4
OWN 17
0
93.8%
Hank Bachmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:43
3RD & 4
OWN 17
+3
93.7%
Charvis Thornton run for 3 yds to the LT 20Similar
Q1 1:40
4TH & 1
OWN 20
0
93.2%
Blake Ochsendorf punt for 41 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NWSTDrive 7TD
4 plays · 61 yds · 1:089% → 11%
Q1 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+32
91.4%
Tyler Vander Waal pass complete to Travon Jones for 32 yds to the LT 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:40
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
91.0%
VANDER WAAL, Tyler pass deep to the right incomplete intended for MITCHELL, Jaren thrown to the LAT2. PENALTY LAT Pass Interference on SHELBY JR., Jhamal enforced half the distance from the goal, 14 yards to the LAT15 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 1:17
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+3
90.9%
Scooter Adams run for 3 yds to the LT 11Similar
Q1 0:32
2ND & 7
OPP 11
+11
88.9%
Tyler Vander Waal pass complete to Scooter Adams for 11 yds for a TD (Brett Money KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 1:5590% → 89%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
90.0%
Hank Bachmeier run for 2 yds to the LT 37Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 37
-10
90.1%
Louisiana Tech Penalty, Illegal Block (-10 Yards) to the LT 39Similar
Q2 14:31
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+5
90.3%
Hank Bachmeier run for 5 yds to the LT 44Similar
Q2 13:45
3RD & 1
OWN 44
-1
89.9%
Tyre Shelton run for a loss of 1 yard to the LT 43Similar
Q2 13:05
4TH & 2
OWN 43
0
89.4%
Blake Ochsendorf punt for 17 yds, downed at the NWST 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NWSTDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:0612% → 11%
Q2 12:56
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
88.5%
Tyler Vander Waal run for 5 yds to the NWST 45Similar
Q2 12:56
2ND & 5
OWN 45
0
88.4%
Tyler Vander Waal run for no gain to the NWST 45Similar
Q2 12:56
3RD & 5
OWN 45
0
88.4%
Tyler Vander Waal pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:50
4TH & 5
OWN 45
0
88.6%
Brett Money punt for 20 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 10TD
1 play · 65 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q2 11:41
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+65
93.7%
Keith Willis Jr. run for 65 yds for a TD (Jacob Barnes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NWSTDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:389% → 9%
Q2 11:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
91.2%
Kennieth Lacy run for 3 yds to the NWST 28Similar
Q2 11:41
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
91.1%
Tyler Vander Waal pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:10
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
91.3%
Tyler Vander Waal pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:03
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
91.5%
Brett Money punt for 31 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 0:4094% → 93%
Q2 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
93.9%
Hank Bachmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:55
2ND & 10
OWN 41
-4
93.7%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Smoke Harris for a loss of 4 yards to the LT 37Similar
Q2 10:41
3RD & 14
OWN 37
0
93.4%
Hank Bachmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:15
4TH & 14
OWN 37
0
93.2%
Blake Ochsendorf punt for 36 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NWSTDrive 13TD
12 plays · 73 yds · 3:498% → 13%
Q2 9:30
1ST & 9
OWN 27
-4
92.3%
Scooter Adams run for a loss of 4 yards to the NWST 23Similar
Q2 9:30
2ND & 13
OWN 23
+20
92.4%
Tyler Vander Waal pass complete to Jaren Mitchell for 20 yds to the NWST 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+6
92.1%
Tyler Vander Waal pass complete to Jaren Mitchell for 6 yds to the NWST 49Similar
Q2 9:30
2ND & 4
OWN 49
+4
91.7%
Tyler Vander Waal pass complete to Dennis Smith for 4 yds to the LT 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:14
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+5
91.5%
Kolbe Burrell run for 5 yds to the LT 42Similar
Q2 8:14
2ND & 5
OPP 42
+8
91.3%
Kolbe Burrell run for 8 yds to the LT 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:18
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
91.0%
Tyler Vander Waal pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:01
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+25
91.0%
Kolbe Burrell run for 25 yds to the LT 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-1
90.8%
Kolbe Burrell run for a loss of 1 yard to the LT 10Similar
Q2 7:01
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+1
90.8%
Kolbe Burrell run for 1 yd to the LT 9Similar
Q2 5:41
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
87.5%
Tyler Vander Waal run for 9 yds for a TD (Brett Money KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 14TD
6 plays · 55 yds · 2:2189% → 92%
Q2 5:39
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
89.0%
Keith Willis Jr. run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 5:12
2ND & 5
50
+6
89.0%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Koby Duru for 6 yds to the NWST 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:47
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+19
89.0%
Keith Willis Jr. run for 19 yds to the NWST 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:11
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
89.0%
Keith Willis Jr. run for no gain to the NWST 25Similar
Q2 4:11
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+2
89.0%
Hank Bachmeier run for 2 yds to the NWST 23 for a 1ST down Northwestern State Penalty, Personal Foul (Trevion Sneed) to the NWST 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:18
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
92.0%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Koby Duru for 11 yds for a TD (Jacob Barnes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NWSTDrive 15DOWNS
11 plays · 5 yds · 1:538% → 7%
Q2 3:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
92.1%
Darius Boone Jr. run for 2 yds to the NWST 27Similar
Q2 3:18
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+10
92.1%
Darius Boone Jr. run for 10 yds to the NWST 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:18
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
91.9%
Tyler Vander Waal pass complete to Travon Jones for 6 yds to the NWST 43Similar
Q2 2:14
2ND & 4
OWN 43
0
91.4%
Tyler Vander Waal pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:56
3RD & 4
OWN 43
+10
91.4%
Tyler Vander Waal pass complete to Stanley King for 10 yds to the LT 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:56
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
90.7%
Tyler Vander Waal pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:38
2ND & 10
OPP 47
-1
91.2%
Tyler Vander Waal sacked by J'Dan Burnett and Jeslord Boateng for a loss of 1 yard to the LT 48Similar
Q2 1:33
3RD & 11
OPP 48
-9
91.6%
Tyler Vander Waal sacked by J'Dan Burnett and Jeslord Boateng for a loss of 9 yards to the NWST 43Similar
Q2 1:25
4TH & 20
OWN 43
-13
93.2%
Brett Money run for a loss of 13 yards to the NWST 30 Brett Money fumbled, recovered by NWST Brett MoneySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 16TD
1 play · 30 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q2 1:17
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+30
95.9%
Charvis Thornton run for 30 yds for a TD (Jacob Barnes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NWSTDrive 17INT
8 plays · 25 yds · 1:175% → 4%
Q2 1:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
94.9%
Kennieth Lacy run for no gain to the NWST 25Similar
Q2 1:17
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+9
95.0%
Kennieth Lacy run for 9 yds to the NWST 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:17
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+7
94.7%
Tyler Vander Waal pass complete to Jaren Mitchell for 7 yds to the NWST 44Similar
Q2 1:17
2ND & 3
OWN 44
+6
94.4%
Kennieth Lacy run for 6 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:54
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
96.6%
Kennieth Lacy run for 3 yds to the NWST 28Similar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
50
0
95.9%
Tyler Vander Waal pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 18FUMBLE
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q3 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-1
94.4%
Charvis Thornton run for a loss of 1 yard to the LT 30 Charvis Thornton fumbled, recovered by NWST Trevion SneedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NWSTDrive 19TD
4 plays · 30 yds · 1:147% → 11%
Q3 14:51
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+27
93.1%
Tyler Vander Waal pass complete to Jaren Mitchell for 27 yds to the LT 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-1
93.0%
Kolbe Burrell run for a loss of 1 yard to the LT 4Similar
Q3 14:51
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
93.0%
Kolbe Burrell run for 2 yds to the LT 2Similar
Q3 13:37
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
89.0%
Kolbe Burrell run for 2 yds for a TD (Brett Money KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 20FG
12 plays · 56 yds · 3:5290% → 93%
Q3 13:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
90.2%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Smoke Harris for 13 yds to the LT 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+12
90.9%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Ryan Rivera for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:10
1ST & 10
50
+1
91.1%
Keith Willis Jr. run for 1 yd to the NWST 49Similar
Q3 13:10
2ND & 9
OPP 49
+15
91.0%
BACHMEIER, Hank pass deep to the right incomplete intended for DURU, Koby thrown to the NSU28. PENALTY NSU Pass Interference on RICHARD, Anthony enforced 15 yards to the NSU34 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 12:02
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+1
91.1%
Keith Willis Jr. run for 1 yd to the NWST 33Similar
Q3 12:02
2ND & 9
OPP 33
0
91.1%
Hank Bachmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:02
3RD & 9
OPP 33
+15
90.5%
BACHMEIER, Hank pass deep to the left incomplete intended for EDWARDS, Tru thrown to the NSU0. PENALTY NSU Pass Interference on BROWN, Emanuel enforced 15 yards to the NSU18 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 11:14
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
91.1%
Hank Bachmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:10
2ND & 10
OPP 18
-5
91.1%
Louisiana Tech Penalty, False Start (Carson Bruno) to the NWST 23Similar
Q3 11:10
2ND & 15
OPP 23
+4
91.0%
Charvis Thornton run for 4 yds to the NWST 19Similar
Q3 10:36
3RD & 11
OPP 19
0
90.5%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Tru Edwards for no gain fumbled, forced by Cadillac Rhone, recovered by LT Ryan RiveraSimilar
Q3 9:45
4TH & 11
OPP 19
+36
92.9%
Jacob Barnes 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NWSTDrive 21PUNT
6 plays · -10 yds · 1:288% → 7%
Q3 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
91.6%
Tyler Vander Waal pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:39
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
91.9%
Tyler Vander Waal pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:39
3RD & 10
OWN 35
-5
92.4%
Northwestern State Penalty, False Start (Jordan Cooper) to the NWST 30Similar
Q3 9:33
3RD & 15
OWN 30
-10
92.6%
(09:33) VANDER WAAL, Tyler pass short up the middle complete for 15 yards to JONES, Travon caught at the NSU34 and advanced to the NSU45 (RANDLE, Brevin). PENALTY NSU Holding on MCMILLAN, Tyler enforced 10 yards from the NSU30 to the NSU20 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 9:25
3RD & 25
OWN 20
+5
92.6%
Darius Boone Jr. run for 5 yds to the NWST 25Similar
Q3 8:17
4TH & 20
OWN 25
0
92.6%
Brett Money punt for 38 yds , returns for no gain to the LT 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 22TD
1 play · 68 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q3 8:06
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+68
97.4%
Keith Willis Jr. run for 68 yds for a TD (Jacob Barnes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NWSTDrive 23INT TD
1 play · 0 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 7:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-49
99.6%
Cedric Woods 49 Yd Interception Return (Jacob Barnes Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NWSTDrive 24DOWNS
7 plays · 45 yds · 2:330% → 1%
Q3 7:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
99.6%
Scooter Adams run for 14 yds to the NWST 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+15
99.6%
Louisiana Tech Penalty, Personal Foul (Jayden Gray) to the LT 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:27
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+10
99.5%
Scooter Adams run for 10 yds to the LT 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:27
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+9
99.5%
Scooter Adams run for 9 yds to the LT 27Similar
Q3 7:27
2ND & 1
OPP 27
-2
99.5%
Scooter Adams run for a loss of 2 yards to the LT 29Similar
Q3 7:27
3RD & 3
OPP 29
-1
99.5%
Darius Boone Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the LT 30Similar
Q3 5:19
4TH & 4
OPP 30
0
99.5%
Tyler Vander Waal pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 25FG
13 plays · 55 yds · 4:01100% → 100%
Q3 5:19
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+7
99.7%
Smoke Harris run for 7 yds to the LT 37Similar
Q3 5:19
2ND & 3
OWN 37
0
99.7%
Hank Bachmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:19
3RD & 3
OWN 37
+5
99.7%
Marlion Jackson run for 5 yds to the LT 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+11
99.7%
Keith Willis Jr. run for 11 yds to the NWST 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:33
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+18
99.7%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Marlion Jackson for 18 yds to the NWST 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:55
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+2
99.8%
Keith Willis Jr. run for 2 yds to the NWST 27Similar
Q3 2:55
2ND & 8
OPP 27
+24
99.8%
Keldric Moody run for 24 yds to the NWST 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
99.8%
Hank Bachmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
-5
99.8%
Louisiana Tech Penalty, False Start (Decoldest Crawford) to the NWST 8Similar
Q3 1:41
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
99.8%
Hank Bachmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:41
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
-7
99.8%
Hank Bachmeier sacked by Ty Ely for a loss of 7 yards to the NWST 15Similar
Q3 1:18
4TH & GOAL
OPP 15
+32
99.8%
Jacob Barnes 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NWSTDrive 26INT
3 plays · -5 yds · 1:150% → 0%
Q3 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-1
99.8%
Darius Boone Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the NWST 29Similar
Q3 1:18
2ND & 11
OWN 29
-4
99.8%
Tyler Vander Waal sacked by Mykol Clark and Zion Nason for a loss of 4 yards to the NWST 25Similar
Q3 0:03
3RD & 15
OWN 25
0
99.9%
Tyler Vander Waal pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 27PUNT
10 plays · 0 yds · 5:12100% → 100%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+1
99.8%
Jack Turner run for 1 yd to the NWST 44Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 44
+2
99.8%
Dedrick Latulas run for 2 yds to the NWST 42Similar
Q4 14:33
3RD & 7
OPP 42
+7
99.8%
Keith Willis Jr. run for 7 yds to the NWST 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:33
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+2
99.8%
Keith Willis Jr. run for 2 yds to the NWST 33Similar
Q4 14:33
2ND & 8
OPP 33
+2
99.8%
Keith Willis Jr. run for 2 yds to the NWST 31Similar
Q4 14:33
3RD & 6
OPP 31
+5
99.8%
Keith Willis Jr. run for 5 yds to the NWST 26Similar
Q4 14:33
2ND & 5
OPP 26
-2
99.8%
Jack Turner pass complete to Dedrick Latulas for a loss of 2 yards to the NWST 28Similar
Q4 10:33
3RD & 7
OPP 28
-15
99.9%
TURNER, Jack pass deep to the right complete for 28 yards to JACKSON, Marlion caught at the NSU0 and advanced to the NSU0, TOUCHDOWN LAT, score nullified by penalty, clock 10:33 (Play was confirmed after review). PENALTY LAT Pass Interference on JACKSON, Marlion enforced 15 yards to the NSU43 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 10:33
3RD & 22
OPP 43
-2
99.9%
Keldric Moody run for a loss of 2 yards to the NWST 45Similar
Q4 9:48
4TH & 24
OPP 45
0
99.9%
Blake Ochsendorf punt for 35 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NWSTDrive 28PUNT
5 plays · 20 yds · 2:420% → 0%
Q4 9:48
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+13
99.9%
Kolbe Burrell run for 13 yds to the NWST 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:48
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+1
99.9%
Kolbe Burrell run for 1 yd to the NWST 24Similar
Q4 9:48
2ND & 9
OWN 24
+1
99.9%
Quaterius Hawkins run for 1 yd to the NWST 25Similar
Q4 9:48
3RD & 8
OWN 25
+5
99.9%
Quaterius Hawkins pass complete to Ke'Nard King for 5 yds to the NWST 30Similar
Q4 7:06
4TH & 3
OWN 30
0
99.9%
Brett Money punt for 40 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 29INT
3 plays · 3 yds · 1:19100% → 100%
Q4 7:06
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
99.9%
Jack Turner pass complete to John Locke for 1 yd to the LT 31Similar
Q4 7:06
2ND & 9
OWN 31
+2
99.9%
Jack Turner pass complete to Dedrick Latulas for 2 yds to the LT 33Similar
Q4 5:47
3RD & 7
OWN 33
0
99.9%
Jack Turner pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NWSTDrive 30PUNT
7 plays · 9 yds · 3:220% → 0%
Q4 5:24
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
99.9%
Quaterius Hawkins run for no gain to the NWST 20Similar
Q4 5:24
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
99.9%
Kennieth Lacy run for no gain to the NWST 20Similar
Q4 5:24
3RD & 10
OWN 20
+11
99.9%
Quaterius Hawkins run for 11 yds to the NWST 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:24
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
99.9%
Quaterius Hawkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:32
2ND & 10
OWN 31
-2
99.9%
Kennieth Lacy run for a loss of 2 yards to the NWST 29Similar
Q4 3:32
3RD & 12
OWN 29
0
99.9%
Quaterius Hawkins pass complete to T.J. Johnson for no gain to the NWST 29Similar
Q4 2:02
4TH & 12
OWN 29
0
100.0%
Brett Money punt for 28 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 31END OF 4TH QUARTER
3 plays · 30 yds · 2:02100% → 100%
Q4 2:02
1ST & 10
50
-1
100.0%
Keldric Moody run for a loss of 1 yard to the LT 49Similar
Q4 1:37
2ND & 11
OWN 49
+9
99.9%
Keldric Moody run for 9 yds to the NWST 42Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 2
OPP 42
+22
100.0%
Keldric Moody run for 22 yds to the NWST 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 8:06
Keith Willis Jr. run for 68 yds for a TD (Jacob Barnes KICK)
+4.8
TD · Q2 11:41
Keith Willis Jr. run for 65 yds for a TD (Jacob Barnes KICK)
+4.3
TD · Q3 13:37
Kolbe Burrell run for 2 yds for a TD (Brett Money KICK)
-4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com