2023 · Week 2 · Sep 9, 2023 · Sanford Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Win probability · UGA
modelUGA aheadBALL aheadconfidence bandkey playUGA scoreBALL score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 8:06 · Brett Thorson punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Nick Munson at the BALL 9
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- PUNT · Q2 14:32: Lucas Borrow punt for 43 yds , Mekhi Mews returns for 69 yds for a TD (Peyton Woodring KICK) — UGA win probability +0.4 pts (now 99%) (top driver: BALL has the ball).
- TD · Q2 10:16: Carson Beck pass complete to Marcus Rosemy-Jacksaint for 7 yds for a TD (Peyton Woodring KICK) — UGA win probability +0.5 pts (now 99%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
- TD · Q2 8:45: Dillon Bell run for 21 yds for a TD (Peyton Woodring KICK) — UGA win probability +0.6 pts (now 99%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:37: Kendall Milton run for 1 yd for a TD (Peyton Woodring KICK) — UGA win probability +0.5 pts (now 100%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
UGA made the numbers' call on 3 of 4BALL made the numbers' call on 9 of 10
- Q1 11:10UGA 4th & 8 at BALL 10, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 98.7% before the snapGo for it98.6%−0.128% to convertField goalTheir call98.6%88% to makePunt98.2%−0.5average punt
- Q1 8:00BALL 4th & 1 at BALL 40, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call1.7%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt1.6%−0.1average punt
- Q1 5:25BALL 4th & 11 at UGA 47, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 2.0% before the snapGo for it2.0%−0.126% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.1%average punt
- Q1 1:00UGA 4th & 7 at midfield, tiedClose callPunted · 97.3% before the snapGo for it97.3%37% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call97.3%−<0.1average punt
- Q2 14:32BALL 4th & 11 at BALL 26, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 2.9% before the snapGo for it2.9%−0.125% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.0%average punt
- Q2 7:17BALL 4th & 4 at BALL 31, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.3% before the snapGo for it1.3%−0.148% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.3%average punt
- Q3 13:25BALL 4th & 5 at BALL 30, down 31Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.2%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.3%average punt
- Q3 10:41BALL 4th & 11 at UGA 43, down 31Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.2%−<0.127% to convertField goal0.2%−0.128% to makePuntTheir call0.3%average punt
- Q3 2:07BALL 4th & 1 at UGA 30, down 38Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.1%71% to convertField goal-0.0%−0.256% to makePunt-0.1%−0.3average punt
- Q4 9:05BALL 4th & 10 at UGA 10, down 45Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.0%−<0.124% to convertField goalTheir call0.0%88% to makePunt-0.2%−0.3average punt
- Q4 8:06UGA 4th & 8 at UGA 40, up 42Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.9%−<0.134% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.9%average punt
- Q4 4:48BALL 4th & 1 at midfield, down 42Close callPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.0%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.0%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 2:51UGA 4th & 14 at UGA 12, up 42Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.8%−0.217% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call100.0%average punt
- Q4 0:53BALL 4th & 4 at BALL 46, down 42Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.0%−<0.148% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.0%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UGA made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
- Q2 10:16UGA Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.8%97% to makeGo for two97.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 8:45UGA Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.0%97% to makeGo for two99.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:37UGA Touchdown, up 30 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.8%97% to makeGo for two99.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 6:27UGA Touchdown, up 37 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 0:46UGA Touchdown, up 44 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartUGADrive 1MISSED FG10 plays · 42 yds · 3:2099% → 99%
Q1 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+8
99.4%
Carson Beck pass complete to Dillon Bell for 8 yds to the BALL 44Similar
Q1 13:20
2ND & 7
OPP 38
+10
99.3%
Carson Beck pass complete to Marcus Rosemy-Jacksaint for 10 yds to the BALL 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:45
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+16
99.3%
Carson Beck pass complete to Dominic Lovett for 16 yds to the BALL 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:45
3RD & 8
OPP 10
0
99.3%
Carson Beck run for no gain to the BALL 10 Carson Beck fumbled, forced by Keiont Newson, recovered by UGA Kendall MiltonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 2PUNT13 plays · 33 yds · 5:351% → 1%
Q1 10:30
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+9
99.2%
Kadin Semonza pass complete to Ahmad Edwards for 9 yds to the BALL 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
99.1%
Kadin Semonza pass complete to Maximus Webster for no gain to the BALL 31Similar
Q1 8:43
3RD & 6
OWN 35
+5
99.0%
Kadin Semonza pass complete to Qian Magwood for 5 yds to the BALL 40Similar
Q1 7:00
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+12
98.9%
Kadin Semonza pass complete to Tanner Koziol for 12 yds to the UGA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:55
3RD & 19
OWN 45
+8
98.8%
Kadin Semonza pass complete to Malcolm Gillie for 8 yds to the UGA 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 3PUNT9 plays · 30 yds · 4:1599% → 98%
Q1 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
98.8%
Carson Beck pass complete to Dominic Lovett for 2 yds to the UGA 22Similar
Q1 3:30
2ND & 4
OWN 38
-2
98.6%
Carson Beck pass complete to Kendall Milton for a loss of 2 yards to the UGA 36Similar
Q1 2:45
3RD & 6
OWN 36
+11
98.5%
Carson Beck pass complete to Dominic Lovett for 11 yds to the UGA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
98.5%
Carson Beck pass complete to Brock Bowers for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 1:45
2ND & 7
50
0
98.5%
Carson Beck pass complete to Dominic Lovett for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 1:00
4TH & 7
50
0
98.3%
Brett Thorson punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Nick Munson at the BALL 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 4PUNT RETURN TD5 plays · 13 yds · 1:132% → 2%
BALLDrive 5INT6 plays · 23 yds · 1:472% → 2%
Q2 14:21
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+15
98.5%
Cooper, Marquez rush for loss of 7 yards to the BALLST18, PENALTY GEORGIA face mask (Miller, Christen) 15 yards to the BALLST40, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN BALLST.Similar
Q2 12:41
3RD & 2
OWN 48
0
98.2%
Kadin Semonza pass intercepted Malaki Starks return for no gain to the UGA 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 6TD6 plays · 78 yds · 1:5498% → 99%
Q2 11:45
2ND & 7
OWN 25
+28
98.2%
Carson Beck pass complete to Arian Smith for 13 yds to the BALL 38 for a 1ST down Ball State Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Aljareek Malry) to the BALL 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:25
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+37
98.3%
Carson Beck pass complete to Arian Smith for 37 yds to the BALL 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:16
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
98.8%
Carson Beck pass complete to Marcus Rosemy-Jacksaint for 7 yds for a TD (Peyton Woodring KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 7INT3 plays · 2 yds · 0:291% → 2%
UGADrive 8TD2 plays · 30 yds · 0:4099% → 99%
BALLDrive 9PUNT5 plays · 6 yds · 1:231% → 1%
UGADrive 10FG14 plays · 42 yds · 5:1199% → 99%
Q2 6:30
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+5
99.3%
Carson Beck pass complete to Mekhi Mews for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 4:15
3RD & 10
OPP 48
+16
99.2%
Carson Beck pass complete to C.J. Smith for 16 yds to the BALL 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:30
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+18
99.3%
Carson Beck pass complete to Rara Thomas for 18 yds to the BALL 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:05
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+7
99.3%
Carson Beck pass incomplete, PENALTY BALLST roughing passer (Berger, Brandon) 7 yards to the BALLST7, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN GEORGIA.Similar
Q2 1:53
4TH & 0
OPP 2
-15
99.3%
Carson Beck pass complete to Lovett, Dominic for 2 yards to the BALLST0, PENALTY GEORGIA pass interference (Rosemy-Jacksaint, Marcus) 15 yards to the BALLST17, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 11INT2 plays · 0 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q2 1:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-12
99.1%
Kadin Semonza pass intercepted Tykee Smith return for 12 yds to the BALL 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 12TD5 plays · 20 yds · 0:5699% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 13END OF HALF2 plays · 6 yds · 0:000% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 14PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 1:300% → 0%
UGADrive 15INT3 plays · 8 yds · 0:55100% → 100%
BALLDrive 16PUNT4 plays · -1 yds · 1:290% → 0%
Q3 12:10
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-2
99.8%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Tanner Koziol for a loss of 2 yards to the UGA 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 17TD8 plays · 80 yds · 4:03100% → 100%
Q3 10:00
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+16
99.9%
Carson Beck pass complete to Mekhi Mews for 16 yds to the UGA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:00
3RD & 3
OWN 44
+16
99.9%
Carson Beck pass complete to Rara Thomas for 16 yds to the BALL 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:00
2ND & 5
OPP 35
+8
99.9%
Carson Beck pass complete to Dillon Bell for 8 yds to the BALL 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:27
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+27
99.9%
Carson Beck pass complete to Cash Jones for 27 yds for a TD (Peyton Woodring KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 18DOWNS11 plays · 45 yds · 4:080% → 0%
Q3 5:40
2ND & 12
OWN 20
+28
99.9%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Ahmad Edwards for 28 yds to the BALL 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:30
2ND & 7
OPP 49
+5
99.9%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Ahmad Edwards for 5 yds to the UGA 44Similar
Q3 4:00
3RD & 2
OPP 44
+5
99.9%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Qian Magwood for 5 yds to the UGA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:35
3RD & 6
OPP 35
+5
99.9%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Marquez Cooper for 5 yds to the UGA 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 19TD3 plays · 67 yds · 1:14100% → 100%
Q3 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+14
99.9%
Roderick Robinson II run for 14 yds to the UGA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+41
99.9%
Carson Beck pass complete to Oscar Delp for 41 yds to the BALL 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:46
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
99.9%
Roderick Robinson II run for 12 yds for a TD (Peyton Woodring KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 20FG17 plays · 55 yds · 6:250% → 0%
Q3 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
100.0%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Rico Barfield for 8 yds to the BALL 43Similar
Q4 13:50
3RD & 2
OPP 46
+2
100.0%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Rico Barfield for 2 yds to the UGA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:15
3RD & 5
OPP 39
+5
100.0%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Ahmad Edwards for 5 yds to the UGA 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:30
3RD & 7
OPP 31
+21
100.0%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Ty Robinson for 21 yds to the UGA 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
0
100.0%
Rico Barfield run for no gain to the UGA 10 Rico Barfield fumbled, recovered by BALL Rico BarfieldSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 21PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 0:39100% → 100%
Q4 8:06
4TH & 8
OWN 40
0
100.0%
Brett Thorson punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Nick Munson at the BALL 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 22PUNT8 plays · 41 yds · 3:120% → 0%
UGADrive 23PUNT4 plays · -4 yds · 1:49100% → 100%
Q4 4:00
2ND & 8
OWN 18
+4
100.0%
Gunner Stockton pass complete to Pearce Spurlin III for 4 yds to the UGA 22Similar
Q4 3:25
3RD & 4
OWN 22
-10
100.0%
Gunner Stockton sacked by Danny Royster for a loss of 10 yards to the UGA 12Similar
Q4 2:51
4TH & 14
OWN 12
0
100.0%
Brett Thorson punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Nick Munson at the BALL 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 24PUNT5 plays · 6 yds · 1:420% → 0%
Q4 0:53
4TH & 4
OWN 46
+6
100.0%
Lucas Borrow punt for 42 yds , Anthony Evans III returns for 6 yds to the UGA 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 8:45
Dillon Bell run for 21 yds for a TD (Peyton Woodring KICK)
+0.6
TD · Q2 10:16
Carson Beck pass complete to Marcus Rosemy-Jacksaint for 7 yds for a TD (Peyton Woodring KICK)
+0.5
TD · Q2 0:37
Kendall Milton run for 1 yd for a TD (Peyton Woodring KICK)
+0.5