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JXST

Jacksonville State 16 at Coastal Carolina 30

CCU
2023 · Week 2 · Sep 9, 2023 · Brooks Stadium (SC)
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Win probability · CCU
modelCCU aheadJXST aheadconfidence bandkey playCCU scoreJXST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGFGFGFGFGTDTDTDEnd of GameFG-1.2CCU 83.1%Alen Karajic 40 yd FG GOODAWAY 3 - HOME 7 · Q1 6:57
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 6:57 · Alen Karajic 40 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+35.0+17.50−17.5−35.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 21Pregame prior+31.1Home team on offense+0.2Score differential+0.0Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 1:01: Liam Gray 28 yd FG GOOD — CCU win probability +5.5 pts (now 78%) (top driver: CCU has the ball).
  2. FG · Q3 5:47: Liam Gray 43 yd FG GOOD — CCU win probability +4.2 pts (now 85%) (top driver: CCU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 2:46: Grayson McCall pass complete to Jared Brown for 48 yds for a TD (Liam Gray KICK) — CCU win probability +8.7 pts (now 94%) (top driver: CCU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 12:16: Jared Brown run for 77 yds for a TD (Liam Gray KICK) — CCU win probability +6.4 pts (now 99%) (top driver: CCU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 10:00: Logan Smothers run for 19 yds for a TD (Alen Karajic KICK) — JXST win probability +7.4 pts (now 9%) (top driver: JXST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CCU made the numbers' call on 7 of 8JXST made the numbers' call on 4 of 8
  1. Q1 6:57JXST 4th & 8 at CCU 22, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 18.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.4%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    18.5%
    72% to make
    Punt
    17.7%−0.7
    average punt
  2. Q1 2:29CCU 4th & 2 at JXST 35, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 79.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    79.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    79.2%−0.5
    45% to make
    Punt
    79.0%−0.7
    average punt
  3. Q1 0:52JXST 4th & 2 at CCU 21, down 4
    Close callKicked a field goal · 21.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    21.2%−0.3
    74% to make
    Punt
    19.5%−2.0
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:35CCU 4th & 15 at CCU 30, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.7%−0.6
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.3%
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:42JXST 4th & 10 at CCU 10, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 23.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.8%−0.4
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    23.2%
    88% to make
    Punt
    20.6%−2.5
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:47CCU 4th & 18 at CCU 17, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.2%−1.9
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.2%
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:21JXST 4th & 3 at midfield, up 2
    Close callPunted · 29.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.6%−0.9
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:01CCU 4th & 7 at JXST 11, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 69.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.6%−1.1
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    69.7%
    87% to make
    Punt
    62.7%−7.0
    average punt
  9. Q3 13:00JXST 4th & 17 at CCU 38, down 1
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.2 ptsWent for it · 25.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    25.0%−1.2
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    26.2%
    38% to make
    Punt
    26.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  10. Q3 7:49CCU 4th & 8 at JXST 8, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 73.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.8%−0.9
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    72.7%
    90% to make
    Punt
    63.2%−9.5
    average punt
  11. Q3 5:47CCU 4th & 2 at JXST 26, up 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsKicked a field goal · 77.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    76.1%−1.2
    64% to make
    Punt
    69.9%−7.5
    average punt
  12. Q3 4:30JXST 4th & 4 at JXST 31, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.2%−1.0
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.2%
    average punt
  13. Q4 14:02CCU 4th & 15 at CCU 46, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.0%−1.5
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.6%
    average punt
  14. Q4 12:30JXST 4th & 7 at JXST 31, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.8%−0.7
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.5%
    average punt
  15. Q4 8:17CCU 4th & 5 at CCU 23, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.1%−0.6
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.7%
    average punt
  16. Q4 4:33JXST 4th & 6 at CCU 10, down 14
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.1 ptsWent for it · 5.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.2%−1.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    5.4%
    88% to make
    Punt
    2.5%−2.9
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CCU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3JXST made the numbers' call on 0 of 1
  1. Q1 10:47CCU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 2:46CCU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 12:16CCU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 10:00JXST Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    4.4%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    4.5%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CCUDrive 1TD
10 plays · 76 yds · 4:0885% → 85%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
84.9%
Reese White run for no gain to the CCU 24Similar
Q1 14:55
2ND & 10
OWN 24
0
84.9%
Reese White run for no gain to the CCU 24Similar
Q1 14:55
3RD & 10
OWN 24
+15
84.9%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Reese White for 15 yds to the CCU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
84.9%
Reese White run for 4 yds to the CCU 43Similar
Q1 14:55
2ND & 6
OWN 43
+14
84.9%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Jameson Tucker for 14 yds to the JVST 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-5
84.9%
Coastal Carolina Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the JVST 48Similar
Q1 14:55
1ST & 15
OPP 48
+1
84.9%
Braydon Bennett run for 1 yd to the JVST 47Similar
Q1 14:55
2ND & 14
OPP 47
+6
84.9%
Braydon Bennett run for 6 yds to the JVST 41Similar
Q1 14:55
3RD & 8
OPP 41
+33
84.9%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Sam Pinckney for 33 yds to the JVST 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
84.9%
Braydon Bennett run for 8 yds for a TD (Liam Gray KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 2FG
11 plays · 53 yds · 3:5016% → 17%
Q1 10:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
84.5%
Zion Webb pass complete to Jacob Barrick for 7 yds to the JVST 32Similar
Q1 10:47
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+22
84.4%
Ron Wiggins run for 22 yds to the CCU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:47
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+5
84.3%
Ron Wiggins run for 5 yds to the CCU 41Similar
Q1 10:47
2ND & 5
OPP 41
+7
84.3%
Zion Webb run for 7 yds to the CCU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:47
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-1
84.2%
Malik Jackson run for a loss of 1 yard to the CCU 35Similar
Q1 10:47
2ND & 11
OPP 35
+8
84.2%
Zion Webb run for 8 yds to the CCU 27Similar
Q1 10:47
3RD & 3
OPP 27
+3
84.3%
Zion Webb run for 3 yds to the CCU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:47
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+2
84.2%
J'Wan Evans run for 2 yds to the CCU 22Similar
Q1 10:47
2ND & 8
OPP 22
0
84.2%
Zion Webb pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:47
3RD & 8
OPP 22
0
84.3%
Zion Webb pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:57
4TH & 8
OPP 22
+40
83.1%
Alen Karajic 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 3DOWNS
9 plays · 37 yds · 4:2883% → 82%
Q1 6:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
83.2%
Reese White run for no gain to the CCU 25Similar
Q1 6:57
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+15
83.1%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Jameson Tucker for 15 yds to the CCU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:57
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
83.4%
Reese White run for 3 yds to the CCU 43Similar
Q1 6:57
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+14
83.5%
Grayson McCall pass complete to CJ Beasley for 14 yds to the JVST 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:57
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-1
83.6%
Grayson McCall run for a loss of 1 yard to the JVST 44Similar
Q1 6:57
2ND & 11
OPP 44
+5
83.5%
Jacksonville State Penalty, Offsides (5 Yards) to the JVST 39Similar
Q1 6:57
2ND & 6
OPP 39
+3
83.6%
Braydon Bennett run for 3 yds to the JVST 36Similar
Q1 6:57
3RD & 3
OPP 36
+1
83.5%
Ethan Vasko run for 1 yd to the JVST 35Similar
Q1 2:29
4TH & 2
OPP 35
-3
82.1%
Braydon Bennett run for a loss of 3 yards to the JVST 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 4FG
7 plays · 41 yds · 1:3718% → 20%
Q1 2:29
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
81.6%
Zion Webb run for 5 yds to the JVST 43Similar
Q1 2:29
2ND & 5
OWN 43
-2
81.3%
Zion Webb run for a loss of 2 yards to the JVST 41Similar
Q1 2:29
3RD & 7
OWN 41
+30
81.7%
Zion Webb pass complete to Quinton Lane for 30 yds to the CCU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:29
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+7
80.8%
Ron Wiggins run for 7 yds to the CCU 22Similar
Q1 2:29
2ND & 3
OPP 22
+1
80.8%
Ron Wiggins run for 1 yd to the CCU 21Similar
Q1 2:29
3RD & 2
OPP 21
0
81.1%
Zion Webb pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:52
4TH & 2
OPP 21
+39
80.5%
Alen Karajic 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 2:1781% → 80%
Q1 0:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
81.1%
Reese White run for 1 yd to the CCU 26Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+9
80.8%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Reese White for 9 yds to the CCU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
81.0%
Braydon Bennett run for no gain to the CCU 35Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 35
-5
80.9%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Jared Brown for a loss of 5 yards to the CCU 30Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 15
OWN 30
0
80.3%
Grayson McCall pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:35
4TH & 15
OWN 30
0
79.6%
Evan Crenshaw punt for 44 yds, downed at the JVST 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 6FG
10 plays · 64 yds · 2:5320% → 24%
Q2 13:35
1ST & 15
OWN 26
+10
80.4%
Zion Webb run for 10 yds to the JVST 36Similar
Q2 13:35
2ND & 5
OWN 36
+35
79.7%
Zion Webb pass complete to Perry Carter for 35 yds to the CCU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:35
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+8
78.7%
Malik Jackson run for 8 yds to the CCU 21Similar
Q2 13:35
2ND & 2
OPP 21
+2
78.7%
Malik Jackson run for 2 yds to the CCU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:35
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+15
78.7%
Malik Jackson run for 15 yds to the CCU 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
78.7%
Malik Jackson run for no gain to the CCU 4Similar
Q2 13:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
-1
78.7%
Sterling Galban run for a loss of 1 yard to the CCU 5Similar
Q2 13:35
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
-5
79.2%
Jacksonville State Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the CCU 10Similar
Q2 13:35
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
0
79.3%
Zion Webb pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:42
4TH & GOAL
OPP 10
+28
76.5%
Alen Karajic 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · -8 yds · 1:5577% → 75%
Q2 10:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
77.4%
Grayson McCall pass complete to CJ Beasley for 5 yds to the CCU 30Similar
Q2 10:42
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-1
77.7%
CJ Beasley run for a loss of 1 yard to the CCU 29Similar
Q2 10:42
3RD & 6
OWN 29
-12
77.0%
Grayson McCall sacked by Kekoura Tarnue for a loss of 12 yards to the CCU 17Similar
Q2 8:47
4TH & 18
OWN 17
0
75.4%
Evan Crenshaw punt for 51 yds, downed at the JVST 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 1:2625% → 27%
Q2 8:47
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+6
75.1%
Zion Webb pass complete to Sean Brown for 6 yds to the JVST 38Similar
Q2 8:47
2ND & 4
OWN 38
+5
74.3%
WEBB, Zion pass up the middle incomplete intended for CARTER, Perry broken up by TEMONEY, Abraham at the CCU50. PENALTY CCU Offsides on ANOKWURU, Clinton enforced 5 yards from the JSU38 to the JSU43 and results in a 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 8:47
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
74.4%
Zion Webb pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:47
2ND & 10
OWN 43
0
74.7%
Zion Webb pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:47
3RD & 10
OWN 43
+7
75.3%
Zion Webb pass complete to Malik Jackson for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 7:21
4TH & 3
50
0
73.5%
Jack Dawson punt for 50 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 9FG
21 plays · 69 yds · 6:2075% → 78%
Q2 7:21
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
75.2%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Jared Brown for 8 yds to the CCU 28Similar
Q2 7:21
2ND & 2
OWN 28
0
76.2%
Grayson McCall pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:21
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+7
74.8%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Sam Pinckney for 7 yds to the CCU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:21
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
75.4%
Grayson McCall pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:21
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+5
75.3%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Jared Brown for 5 yds to the CCU 40Similar
Q2 7:21
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+5
76.1%
MCCALL, Grayson pass deep to the right incomplete intended for PINCKNEY, Sam thrown to the JSU43. PENALTY JSU Offsides on HALE, Laletia enforced 5 yards from the CCU40 to the CCU45 and results in a 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 7:21
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+1
76.7%
Grayson McCall run for 1 yd to the CCU 46Similar
Q2 7:21
2ND & 9
OWN 46
+10
76.7%
Reese White run for 10 yds to the JVST 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:21
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
77.2%
Reese White run for 2 yds to the JVST 42Similar
Q2 7:21
2ND & 8
OPP 42
+4
77.2%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Braydon Bennett for 4 yds to the JVST 38Similar
Q2 7:21
3RD & 4
OPP 38
+12
77.0%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Kendall Karr for 12 yds to the JVST 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:21
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+8
77.9%
Grayson McCall run for 8 yds to the JVST 18Similar
Q2 7:21
2ND & 2
OPP 18
+4
77.8%
Braydon Bennett run for 4 yds to the JVST 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:21
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-1
75.8%
Braydon Bennett run for a loss of 1 yard to the JVST 15Similar
Q2 1:11
2ND & 11
OPP 15
+9
75.7%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Matt Alaimo for 9 yds to the JVST 6Similar
Q2 1:11
3RD & 2
OPP 6
0
74.4%
Reese White run for no gain to the JVST 6Similar
Q2 1:02
4TH & 2
OPP 6
-5
73.4%
Coastal Carolina Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the JVST 11Similar
Q2 1:01
4TH & 7
OPP 11
+28
78.4%
Liam Gray 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 10END OF HALF
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:0124% → 23%
Q2 1:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
76.5%
Zion Webb run for 6 yds to the JVST 31Similar
Q2 1:01
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+4
75.8%
Zion Webb pass complete to Michael Pettway for 4 yds to the JVST 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:01
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
76.1%
Zion Webb pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:01
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
76.4%
Zion Webb run for no gain to the JVST 35Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 10
OWN 35
-9
76.7%
Zion Webb run for a loss of 9 yards to the JVST 26 Zion Webb fumbled, recovered by JVST Zion WebbSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 11DOWNS
6 plays · 49 yds · 2:0024% → 24%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
75.9%
Zion Webb run for 2 yds to the JVST 27Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+42
75.8%
Zion Webb pass complete to Perry Carter for 42 yds to the CCU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+2
72.6%
Malik Jackson run for 2 yds to the CCU 29Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 29
0
72.4%
Zion Webb pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 29
-9
73.7%
Zion Webb sacked by Micheal Mason for a loss of 9 yards to the CCU 38Similar
Q3 13:00
4TH & 17
OPP 38
+12
75.9%
Zion Webb pass complete to Malik Jackson for 12 yds to the CCU 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 12FG
13 plays · 66 yds · 5:1176% → 79%
Q3 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
76.3%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Jared Brown for 4 yds to the CCU 30Similar
Q3 13:00
2ND & 6
OWN 30
+3
76.4%
CJ Beasley run for 3 yds to the CCU 33Similar
Q3 13:00
3RD & 3
OWN 33
+5
75.8%
Jacksonville State Penalty, Delay Of Game (Quae Drake) to the CCU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
77.2%
Grayson McCall pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:00
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+4
76.8%
Grayson McCall run for 4 yds to the CCU 42Similar
Q3 13:00
3RD & 6
OWN 42
+16
76.7%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Sam Pinckney for 16 yds to the JVST 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
78.6%
Grayson McCall pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:00
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+1
78.4%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Jared Brown for 1 yd to the JVST 41Similar
Q3 13:00
3RD & 9
OPP 41
+32
77.7%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Jared Brown for 32 yds to the JVST 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
79.0%
Grayson McCall pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
-6
79.0%
Grayson McCall sacked by Jackson Luttrell for a loss of 6 yards to the JVST 15Similar
Q3 13:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 15
+7
76.8%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Sam Pinckney for 7 yds to the JVST 8Similar
Q3 7:49
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
+25
78.8%
Liam Gray 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 13FG
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:5781% → 85%
Q3 7:44
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+3
81.2%
Max Balthazar run for 3 yds to the JVST 31Similar
Q3 7:44
2ND & 7
OPP 31
+2
81.2%
Grayson McCall run for 2 yds to the JVST 29Similar
Q3 7:44
3RD & 5
OPP 29
+3
80.3%
Max Balthazar run for 3 yds to the JVST 26Similar
Q3 5:47
4TH & 2
OPP 26
+43
84.5%
Liam Gray 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:1719% → 18%
Q3 5:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
80.9%
Malik Jackson run for a loss of 1 yard to the JVST 24Similar
Q3 5:47
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
81.2%
Zion Webb pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:47
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+7
82.1%
Zion Webb pass complete to Jamarye Joiner for 7 yds to the JVST 31Similar
Q3 4:30
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
82.3%
Jack Dawson punt for 39 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 15TD
4 plays · 70 yds · 1:4484% → 94%
Q3 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
84.0%
Reese White run for 2 yds to the CCU 32Similar
Q3 4:30
2ND & 8
OWN 32
+15
84.1%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Kendall Karr for 15 yds to the CCU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
85.7%
Grayson McCall run for 5 yds to the JVST 48Similar
Q3 2:46
2ND & 5
OPP 48
+48
94.4%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Jared Brown for 48 yds for a TD (Liam Gray KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 16FUMBLE
8 plays · 24 yds · 2:258% → 5%
Q3 2:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
91.6%
Malik Jackson run for 1 yd to the JVST 26Similar
Q3 2:46
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+16
91.6%
Logan Smothers pass complete to Quinton Lane for 16 yds to the JVST 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:46
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+6
90.6%
Reggion Bennett run for 6 yds to the JVST 48Similar
Q3 2:46
2ND & 4
OWN 48
0
90.2%
Reggion Bennett run for no gain to the JVST 48Similar
Q3 2:46
3RD & 4
OWN 48
+8
90.4%
Logan Smothers pass complete to Jacob Barrick for 8 yds to the CCU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:46
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-1
90.0%
Reggion Bennett run for a loss of 1 yard to the CCU 45Similar
Q3 0:21
2ND & 11
OPP 45
-6
91.0%
Logan Smothers sacked for a loss of 6 yards to the JVST 49Similar
Q3 0:21
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
95.0%
Jacksonville State Penalty, Delay Of Game (Jeff Marks) to the JVST 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 0:5895% → 94%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 5
OPP 44
-10
95.1%
Grayson McCall sacked by Kolbi Fuqua and Jeff Marks for a loss of 10 yards to the CCU 46Similar
Q4 14:15
2ND & 15
OWN 46
0
94.6%
Grayson McCall run for no gain to the CCU 46Similar
Q4 14:15
3RD & 15
OWN 46
0
94.4%
Grayson McCall pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:02
4TH & 15
OWN 46
0
94.1%
Evan Crenshaw punt for 44 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 18PUNT
7 plays · 21 yds · 1:328% → 7%
Q4 14:02
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+5
92.4%
Malik Jackson run for 5 yds to the JVST 15Similar
Q4 14:02
2ND & 5
OWN 15
+4
92.3%
Logan Smothers pass complete to Quinton Lane for 4 yds to the JVST 19Similar
Q4 14:02
3RD & 1
OWN 19
+9
92.3%
Malik Jackson run for 9 yds to the JVST 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:02
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
91.7%
Logan Smothers pass complete to Malik Jackson for 3 yds to the JVST 31Similar
Q4 14:02
2ND & 7
OWN 31
0
91.4%
Logan Smothers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:02
3RD & 7
OWN 31
0
91.8%
Logan Smothers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:30
4TH & 7
OWN 31
0
92.7%
Jack Dawson punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Jared Brown at the CCU 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 19TD
1 play · 77 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 12:16
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+77
99.1%
Jared Brown run for 77 yds for a TD (Liam Gray KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 20TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:161% → 9%
Q4 12:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
98.7%
Malik Jackson run for 8 yds to the JVST 33Similar
Q4 12:16
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+19
98.6%
Logan Smothers run for 19 yds to the CCU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:16
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
98.6%
Malik Jackson run for 5 yds to the CCU 43Similar
Q4 12:16
2ND & 5
OPP 43
+12
98.5%
SMOTHERS, Logan pass to the left incomplete intended for JOINER, Jamarye thrown to the CCU33. PENALTY CCU Pass Interference on EUBANKS, Courtney enforced at the spot of the foul for 12 yards to the CCU31 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 12:16
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-1
98.4%
Malik Jackson run for a loss of 1 yard to the CCU 32Similar
Q4 12:16
2ND & 11
OPP 32
+10
98.5%
Logan Smothers pass complete to Sterling Galban for 10 yds to the CCU 22Similar
Q4 12:16
3RD & 1
OPP 22
+3
98.5%
Malik Jackson run for 3 yds to the CCU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+19
91.1%
Logan Smothers run for 19 yds for a TD (Alen Karajic KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:3496% → 96%
Q4 9:51
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+2
95.9%
Max Balthazar run for 2 yds to the CCU 20Similar
Q4 9:51
2ND & 8
OWN 20
+3
95.9%
Max Balthazar run for 3 yds to the CCU 23Similar
Q4 9:51
3RD & 5
OWN 23
0
95.9%
Grayson McCall pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:17
4TH & 5
OWN 23
0
95.8%
Evan Crenshaw punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Sterling Galban at the JVST 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 22DOWNS
11 plays · 53 yds · 3:447% → 6%
Q4 8:17
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+18
92.9%
Logan Smothers run for 18 yds to the JVST 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:17
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+10
92.4%
Logan Smothers pass complete to Sean Brown for 10 yds to the CCU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:17
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+9
92.3%
Malik Jackson run for 9 yds to the CCU 33Similar
Q4 8:17
2ND & 1
OPP 33
+6
91.2%
Logan Smothers pass complete to Malik Jackson for 6 yds to the CCU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:17
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+2
91.2%
Malik Jackson run for 2 yds to the CCU 25Similar
Q4 8:17
2ND & 8
OPP 25
0
91.2%
Logan Smothers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:17
3RD & 8
OPP 25
+11
92.3%
Logan Smothers run for 11 yds to the CCU 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:17
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+5
91.2%
Malik Jackson run for 5 yds to the CCU 9Similar
Q4 8:17
2ND & 5
OPP 9
+2
91.2%
Malik Jackson run for 2 yds to the CCU 7Similar
Q4 8:17
3RD & 3
OPP 7
-3
91.8%
J'Wan Evans run for a loss of 3 yards to the CCU 10Similar
Q4 4:33
4TH & 6
OPP 10
-7
93.7%
Logan Smothers sacked by Jahmar Brown for a loss of 7 yards to the CCU 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 23END OF GAME
13 plays · 14 yds · 4:3397% → 99%
Q4 4:33
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+1
97.1%
Reese White run for 1 yd to the CCU 18Similar
Q4 4:33
2ND & 9
OWN 18
+5
97.0%
Jacksonville State Penalty, Offsides (Jackson Luttrell) to the CCU 23Similar
Q4 3:38
2ND & 4
OWN 23
+2
98.0%
CJ Beasley run for 2 yds to the CCU 25Similar
Q4 3:38
3RD & 2
OWN 25
+3
98.0%
CJ Beasley run for 3 yds to the CCU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
98.5%
Braydon Bennett run for no gain to the CCU 28Similar
Q4 2:55
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+1
98.4%
Max Balthazar run for 1 yd to the CCU 29Similar
Q4 2:04
3RD & 9
OWN 29
+13
99.0%
Max Balthazar run for 13 yds to the CCU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:04
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-5
99.1%
run for a loss of 5 yards to the CCU 37Similar
Q4 2:04
2ND & 15
OWN 37
-3
99.0%
run for a loss of 3 yards to the CCU 34Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 18
OWN 34
-3
99.2%
run for a loss of 3 yards to the CCU 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 2:46
Grayson McCall pass complete to Jared Brown for 48 yds for a TD (Liam Gray KICK)
+8.7
TD · Q4 10:00
Logan Smothers run for 19 yds for a TD (Alen Karajic KICK)
-7.4
TD · Q4 12:16
Jared Brown run for 77 yds for a TD (Liam Gray KICK)
+6.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com