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AUB

Auburn 14 at California 10

CAL
2023 · Week 2 · Sep 9, 2023 · California Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · CAL
modelCAL aheadAUB aheadconfidence bandkey playCAL scoreAUB score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 0:55 · Lachlan Wilson punt for 45 yds , Keionte Scott returns for no gain to the AUB 33
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differential
+34.0+17.00−17.0−34.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 33Pregame prior−13.6Home team on offense+0.6Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.2Score differential−0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 4:47: Jaydn Ott run for 14 yds for a TD (Michael Luckhurst KICK) — CAL win probability +9.6 pts (now 50%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 6:31: Payton Thorne pass complete to Rivaldo Fairweather for 5 yds for a TD (Alex McPherson KICK) — AUB win probability +42.1 pts (now 79%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q4 6:31: Sam Jackson V pass incomplete to Jack Endries — CAL win probability +11.5 pts (now 37%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 4:00: Ashton Stredick run for 1 yd to the AUB 24 — CAL win probability +21.5 pts (now 42%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 1:44: Damari Alston run for 3 yds to the AUB 23 — AUB win probability +15.3 pts (now 88%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CAL made the numbers' call on 10 of 14AUB made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 13:33CAL 4th & 1 at AUB 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 39.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    39.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    39.3%−0.1
    64% to make
    Punt
    38.9%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:42CAL 4th & 9 at AUB 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 40.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.8%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    40.9%
    72% to make
    Punt
    40.2%−0.7
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:36AUB 4th & 15 at AUB 1, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.2%−1.0
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.2%
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:09CAL 4th & 15 at AUB 25, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 43.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.6%−0.7
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    43.2%
    66% to make
    Punt
    40.9%−2.3
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:12AUB 4th & 8 at AUB 38, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.8%−0.3
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.2%
    average punt
  6. Q1 0:55CAL 4th & 3 at CAL 20, up 3
    Close callPunted · 43.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.7%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.5%−0.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 13:10AUB 4th & 9 at AUB 45, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.0%−0.5
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.5%
    average punt
  8. Q2 9:26CAL 4th & 10 at CAL 36, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.4%−1.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.4%
    average punt
  9. Q2 3:41AUB 4th & 2 at AUB 32, down 3
    Close callPunted · 48.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:25CAL 4th & 9 at CAL 34, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.6%−1.4
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.0%
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:00CAL 4th & 20 at AUB 44, up 3
    Numbers favored punt by 3.1 ptsWent for it · 50.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    47.7%−3.1
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    48.9%−2.0
    27% to make
    Punt
    50.9%
    average punt
  12. Q3 14:55CAL 4th & 1 at CAL 40, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 52.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    53.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    50.3%−2.6
    average punt
  13. Q3 8:20CAL 4th & 4 at AUB 37, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 58.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    59.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    57.4%−2.0
    40% to make
    Punt
    57.1%−2.3
    average punt
  14. Q3 5:57AUB 4th & 2 at CAL 42, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 45.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    46.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    42.1%−4.0
    30% to make
    Punt
    43.3%−2.9
    average punt
  15. Q3 5:57CAL 4th & 4 at AUB 34, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 59.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    59.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    58.2%−1.6
    47% to make
    Punt
    57.0%−2.7
    average punt
  16. Q3 1:51CAL 4th & 12 at AUB 25, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 58.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.1%−2.4
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    59.5%
    66% to make
    Punt
    46.8%−12.7
    average punt
  17. Q4 14:47AUB 4th & 15 at AUB 31, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.0%−5.3
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.3%
    average punt
  18. Q4 11:08CAL 4th & 21 at AUB 27, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 64.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.3%−7.7
    8% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    64.0%
    62% to make
    Punt
    48.6%−15.4
    average punt
  19. Q4 5:24CAL 4th & 3 at CAL 32, down 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.1 ptsPunted · 33.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.9%−2.1
    average punt
  20. Q4 1:44CAL 4th & 13 at AUB 18, down 4
    Numbers favored field goal by 9.7 ptsWent for it · 26.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    17.5%−9.7
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    27.2%
    79% to make
    Punt
    10.3%−16.9
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CAL made the numbers' call on 1 of 1AUB made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q2 11:50AUB Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 4:47CAL Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 6:31AUB Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.7%−0.4
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.1%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
AUBDrive 1FUMBLE
4 plays · 13 yds · 1:2267% → 67%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
32.8%
Jarquez Hunter run for 3 yds to the AUB 25Similar
Q1 14:55
2ND & 8
OWN 25
+3
32.8%
Jarquez Hunter run for 3 yds to the AUB 28Similar
Q1 13:33
3RD & 5
OWN 28
+7
33.4%
Payton Thorne run for 7 yds to the AUB 35 run for no gain to the AUB 35 Payton Thorne fumbled, forced by Kaleb Elarms-Orr, recovered by AUB Jackson SirmonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 2FG
8 plays · 13 yds · 3:5134% → 36%
Q1 13:33
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
33.6%
Ben Finley pass incomplete to Brian HightowerSimilar
Q1 13:33
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+3
33.6%
Jaydn Ott run for 3 yds to the AUB 32Similar
Q1 13:33
3RD & 7
OPP 32
+6
33.6%
Ben Finley pass complete to Monroe Young for 6 yds to the AUB 26Similar
Q1 13:33
4TH & 1
OPP 26
+3
33.5%
Jaydn Ott run for 3 yds to the AUB 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:33
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+10
33.6%
Monroe Young run for 10 yds to the AUB 33 Monroe Young fumbled, recovered by AUB Monroe YoungSimilar
Q1 13:33
2ND & 20
OPP 33
+10
33.5%
Ben Finley pass complete to Monroe Young for 10 yds to the AUB 23Similar
Q1 13:33
3RD & 10
OPP 23
+1
33.6%
Ben Finley pass complete to Jaydn Ott for 1 yd to the AUB 22Similar
Q1 9:42
4TH & 9
OPP 22
+39
35.7%
Michael Luckhurst 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · -5 yds · 2:0164% → 63%
Q1 9:37
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+2
35.7%
Jarquez Hunter run for 2 yds to the AUB 8Similar
Q1 9:37
2ND & 8
OWN 8
+2
35.8%
Jarquez Hunter run for 2 yds to the AUB 10Similar
Q1 9:37
3RD & 6
OWN 10
-9
35.9%
Payton Thorne sacked by Ricky Correia for a loss of 9 yards to the AUB 1Similar
Q1 7:36
4TH & 15
OWN 1
0
37.5%
Oscar Chapman punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Jeremiah Hunter at the AUB 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 4MISSED FG
7 plays · 8 yds · 3:2738% → 38%
Q1 7:36
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+6
37.5%
Jaydn Ott run for 6 yds to the AUB 27Similar
Q1 7:36
2ND & 4
OPP 27
+3
37.5%
Jaydn Ott run for 3 yds to the AUB 24Similar
Q1 7:36
3RD & 1
OPP 24
+4
37.2%
Jaydn Ott run for 4 yds to the AUB 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:36
1ST & 20
OPP 30
+5
37.3%
Ben Finley pass complete to Jeremiah Hunter for 5 yds to the AUB 25Similar
Q1 7:36
2ND & 15
OPP 25
+5
37.1%
Monroe Young run for 5 yds to the AUB 20Similar
Q1 7:36
3RD & 10
OPP 20
-5
37.2%
Ben Finley sacked by Marcus Harris for a loss of 5 yards to the AUB 25Similar
Q1 4:09
4TH & 15
OPP 25
+42
37.9%
Michael Luckhurst 42 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 13 yds · 1:5761% → 60%
Q1 4:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
38.7%
Payton Thorne run for 5 yds to the AUB 30Similar
Q1 4:09
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+6
38.5%
Payton Thorne run for 6 yds to the AUB 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:09
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
38.4%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Ja'Varrius JohnsonSimilar
Q1 4:09
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+2
38.6%
Payton Thorne run for 2 yds to the AUB 38Similar
Q1 4:09
3RD & 8
OWN 38
0
38.5%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Jyaire ShorterSimilar
Q1 2:12
4TH & 8
OWN 38
0
40.0%
Oscar Chapman punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Jeremiah Hunter at the CAL 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:1739% → 39%
Q1 2:12
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+3
39.0%
Jaydn Ott run for 3 yds to the CAL 16Similar
Q1 2:12
2ND & 7
OWN 16
+4
39.0%
Jaydn Ott run for 4 yds to the CAL 20Similar
Q1 2:12
3RD & 3
OWN 20
0
38.6%
Ben Finley pass incomplete to Jaydn OttSimilar
Q1 0:55
4TH & 3
OWN 20
0
38.7%
Lachlan Wilson punt for 45 yds , Keionte Scott returns for no gain to the AUB 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 12 yds · 2:4560% → 58%
Q1 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
39.8%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jarquez Hunter for 4 yds to the AUB 37Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 6
OWN 37
+7
39.8%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Ja'Varrius Johnson for 7 yds to the AUB 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+6
39.4%
Brian Battie run for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 4
50
0
39.0%
Robby Ashford pass complete to Brian Battie for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 45
0
40.1%
Robby Ashford pass incomplete to Jarquez HunterSimilar
Q2 13:10
4TH & 9
OWN 45
0
42.1%
Oscar Chapman punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Jeremiah Hunter at the CAL 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 8FUMBLE
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0041% → 41%
Q2 13:01
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
41.3%
Isaiah Ifanse run for no gain to the CAL 17 Isaiah Ifanse fumbled, recovered by AUB Donovan KaufmanSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 9TD
3 plays · 17 yds · 1:1161% → 65%
Q2 13:01
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+6
39.2%
Damari Alston run for 6 yds to the CAL 11Similar
Q2 13:01
2ND & 4
OPP 11
+2
39.2%
Robby Ashford run for 2 yds to the CAL 13Similar
Q2 11:50
3RD & 6
OPP 13
+13
35.3%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jay Fair for 13 yds for a TD (Alex McPherson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 10PUNT
8 plays · 11 yds · 2:2437% → 36%
Q2 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
37.1%
Jaydn Ott run for 2 yds to the CAL 27Similar
Q2 11:50
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+3
37.2%
Sam Jackson V pass complete to Monroe Young for 3 yds to the CAL 30Similar
Q2 11:50
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+6
36.7%
Ben Finley pass complete to Jeremiah Hunter for 6 yds to the CAL 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
37.7%
Ben Finley pass complete to Jeremiah Hunter for no gain to the CAL 36Similar
Q2 11:50
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
37.4%
Ben Finley pass incomplete to Monroe YoungSimilar
Q2 11:50
3RD & 10
OWN 36
0
36.6%
Ben Finley pass incomplete to Monroe YoungSimilar
Q2 9:26
4TH & 10
OWN 36
+12
36.2%
Lachlan Wilson punt for 37 yds , Keionte Scott returns for 12 yds to the AUB 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 11FUMBLE
4 plays · 26 yds · 2:0663% → 65%
Q2 9:26
1ST & 20
OWN 29
+13
37.1%
Damari Alston run for 13 yds to the AUB 42Similar
Q2 9:26
2ND & 7
OWN 42
+8
35.7%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Damari Alston for 8 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:26
1ST & 10
50
+2
35.4%
Payton Thorne run for 2 yds to the CAL 48Similar
Q2 7:20
2ND & 8
OPP 48
+13
34.7%
Damari Alston run for 13 yds to the CAL 35 run for 13 yds to the CAL 35 Damari Alston fumbled, forced by Craig Woodson, recovered by AUB Patrick McmorrisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 12TD
6 plays · 65 yds · 2:3337% → 50%
Q2 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
37.2%
Ben Finley pass complete to Monroe Young for 6 yds to the CAL 41Similar
Q2 7:20
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+5
39.1%
Jaydn Ott run for 5 yds to the CAL 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+22
39.0%
Sam Jackson V pass complete to Jeremiah Hunter for 22 yds to the AUB 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:20
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+4
40.4%
Sam Jackson V run for 4 yds to the AUB 28Similar
Q2 7:20
2ND & 6
OPP 28
+14
40.4%
Jaydn Ott run for 14 yds to the AUB 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:47
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
50.0%
Jaydn Ott run for 14 yds for a TD (Michael Luckhurst KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:0054% → 52%
Q2 4:41
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+2
46.5%
Jarquez Hunter run for 2 yds to the AUB 26Similar
Q2 4:41
2ND & 8
OWN 26
+6
46.5%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Rivaldo Fairweather for 6 yds to the AUB 32Similar
Q2 4:41
3RD & 2
OWN 32
0
46.1%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Omari KellySimilar
Q2 3:41
4TH & 2
OWN 32
0
48.1%
Oscar Chapman punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Jeremiah Hunter at the CAL 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 14PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 2:1647% → 46%
Q2 3:41
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+1
47.4%
Jaydn Ott run for 1 yd to the CAL 20Similar
Q2 3:41
2ND & 9
OWN 20
+2
47.2%
Sam Jackson V pass complete to Jeremiah Hunter for 2 yds to the CAL 22Similar
Q2 3:41
3RD & 7
OWN 22
+11
46.1%
Sam Jackson V pass complete to Brian Hightower for 11 yds to the CAL 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:41
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+1
47.7%
Jaydn Ott run for 1 yd to the CAL 34Similar
Q2 3:41
2ND & 9
OWN 34
0
47.6%
Sam Jackson V pass incomplete to Monroe YoungSimilar
Q2 3:41
3RD & 9
OWN 34
0
46.6%
Sam Jackson V pass incomplete to Brian HightowerSimilar
Q2 1:25
4TH & 9
OWN 34
0
46.3%
Lachlan Wilson punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Keionte Scott at the AUB 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 15INT
1 play · -5 yds · 0:0051% → 51%
Q2 1:03
1ST & 15
OWN 19
0
48.7%
Payton Thorne pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 16INT
7 plays · -10 yds · 1:0353% → 48%
Q2 1:03
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
52.6%
Sam Jackson V pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:03
2ND & 10
OPP 34
0
52.5%
Jaydn Ott run for no gain to the AUB 34Similar
Q2 0:46
3RD & 10
OPP 34
0
50.6%
Sam Jackson V run for no gain to the AUB 34Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 20
OPP 44
0
48.3%
Sam Jackson V pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 17DOWNS
14 plays · 45 yds · 6:3549% → 56%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+2
49.3%
Jaydn Ott run for 2 yds to the CAL 21Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 8
OWN 21
+10
49.1%
Sam Jackson V pass complete to Taj Davis for 10 yds to the CAL 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
49.8%
Jaydn Ott run for 3 yds to the CAL 34Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 7
OWN 34
+4
49.9%
Jaydn Ott run for 4 yds to the CAL 38Similar
Q3 14:55
3RD & 3
OWN 38
+2
50.3%
Sam Jackson V run for 2 yds to the CAL 40Similar
Q3 14:55
4TH & 1
OWN 40
+6
49.1%
Ashton Stredick run for 6 yds to the CAL 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
52.0%
Ashton Stredick run for 2 yds to the CAL 48Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 8
OWN 48
+4
51.9%
Ashton Stredick run for 4 yds to the AUB 48Similar
Q3 14:55
3RD & 4
OPP 48
+5
51.8%
Sam Jackson V pass complete to Jaydn Ott for 5 yds to the AUB 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
52.7%
Sam Jackson V pass incomplete to Taj DavisSimilar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+6
52.4%
Ashton Stredick run for 6 yds to the AUB 37Similar
Q3 14:55
3RD & 4
OPP 37
0
52.0%
Sam Jackson V pass incomplete to Jeremiah HunterSimilar
Q3 8:20
4TH & 4
OPP 37
+1
56.0%
Sam Jackson V pass complete to Ashton Stredick for 1 yd to the AUB 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 18DOWNS
6 plays · 23 yds · 2:2348% → 46%
Q3 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+14
51.7%
Jarquez Hunter run for 14 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:20
1ST & 10
50
+5
49.0%
Jarquez Hunter run for 5 yds to the CAL 45Similar
Q3 8:20
2ND & 5
OPP 45
+2
48.9%
Jarquez Hunter run for 2 yds to the CAL 43Similar
Q3 8:20
3RD & 3
OPP 43
+1
49.4%
Jarquez Hunter run for 1 yd to the CAL 42Similar
Q3 5:57
4TH & 2
OPP 42
+1
53.7%
Robby Ashford run for 1 yd to the CAL 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 19MISSED FG
10 plays · 34 yds · 4:0660% → 59%
Q3 5:57
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
59.8%
Sam Jackson V pass complete to Trond Grizzell for 2 yds to the CAL 43Similar
Q3 5:57
2ND & 8
OWN 43
+17
59.9%
Sam Jackson V pass complete to Trond Grizzell for 17 yds to the AUB 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:57
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
61.4%
Sam Jackson V pass incomplete to Trond GrizzellSimilar
Q3 5:57
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+1
61.1%
Jaydn Ott run for 1 yd to the AUB 39Similar
Q3 5:57
3RD & 9
OPP 39
+5
60.2%
Jaydn Ott run for 5 yds to the AUB 34Similar
Q3 5:57
4TH & 4
OPP 34
+11
59.1%
Sam Jackson V run for 11 yds to the AUB 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:57
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
62.9%
Sam Jackson V pass incomplete to Jeremiah HunterSimilar
Q3 5:57
2ND & 10
OPP 23
0
62.7%
Jaydn Ott run for no gain to the AUB 23Similar
Q3 5:57
3RD & 10
OPP 23
+2
60.8%
Ashton Stredick run for 2 yds to the AUB 25Similar
Q3 1:51
4TH & 12
OPP 25
+42
59.1%
Michael Luckhurst 42 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 2:0440% → 36%
Q3 1:51
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+10
59.7%
Robby Ashford run for 10 yds to the AUB 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:51
1ST & 11
OWN 35
+1
59.1%
Robby Ashford run for 1 yd to the AUB 34Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 12
OWN 34
+2
61.2%
Damari Alston run for 2 yds to the AUB 36Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 15
OWN 31
0
62.9%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Jay FairSimilar
Q4 14:47
4TH & 15
OWN 31
0
63.7%
Oscar Chapman punt for 36 yds , Jeremiah Hunter returns for no gain to the CAL 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 21MISSED FG
10 plays · 40 yds · 3:3961% → 66%
Q4 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+11
61.4%
Sam Jackson V pass complete to Taj Davis for 11 yds to the CAL 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+6
64.0%
Isaiah Ifanse run for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 14:47
2ND & 4
50
+6
65.0%
Isaiah Ifanse run for 6 yds to the AUB 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:47
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+3
65.3%
Isaiah Ifanse run for 3 yds to the AUB 41Similar
Q4 14:47
2ND & 7
OPP 41
+10
65.1%
Sam Jackson V pass complete to Brian Hightower for 10 yds to the AUB 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:47
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+15
67.0%
Sam Jackson V pass complete to Taj Davis for 15 yds to the AUB 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:47
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
66.9%
Sam Jackson V pass incomplete to Brian HightowerSimilar
Q4 14:47
2ND & 10
OPP 16
0
66.9%
Sam Jackson V pass incomplete to Taj DavisSimilar
Q4 14:47
3RD & 10
OPP 16
-11
64.9%
Sam Jackson V sacked by Eugene Asante for a loss of 11 yards to the AUB 27Similar
Q4 11:08
4TH & 21
OPP 27
+44
66.4%
Michael Luckhurst 44 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 22TD
11 plays · 69 yds · 4:3736% → 79%
Q4 11:08
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+6
64.2%
Jeremiah Cobb run for 6 yds to the AUB 33Similar
Q4 11:08
2ND & 4
OWN 33
+5
62.1%
Jeremiah Cobb run for 5 yds to the AUB 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:08
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
62.5%
Robby Ashford pass incomplete to Malcolm Johnson Jr.Similar
Q4 11:08
2ND & 10
OWN 38
-7
62.7%
Payton Thorne sacked by David Reese for a loss of 7 yards to the AUB 31Similar
Q4 11:08
3RD & 17
OWN 31
+28
66.6%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Rivaldo Fairweather for 28 yds to the CAL 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:08
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-4
58.9%
Payton Thorne sacked by Derek Wilkins for a loss of 4 yards to the CAL 45Similar
Q4 11:08
2ND & 14
OPP 45
+12
62.1%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jay Fair for 12 yds to the CAL 33Similar
Q4 11:08
3RD & 2
OPP 33
+11
59.1%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Damari Alston for 11 yds to the CAL 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
57.1%
Damari Alston run for 2 yds to the CAL 5Similar
Q4 6:31
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
21.0%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Rivaldo Fairweather for 5 yds for a TD (Alex McPherson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:0737% → 36%
Q4 6:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
37.0%
Sam Jackson V pass incomplete to Jack EndriesSimilar
Q4 6:31
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
36.3%
Ashton Stredick run for 7 yds to the CAL 32Similar
Q4 6:31
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
36.6%
Ashton Stredick run for no gain to the CAL 32Similar
Q4 5:24
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
35.9%
Lachlan Wilson punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Ja'Varrius Johnson at the AUB 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 24FUMBLE
2 plays · 19 yds · 1:2474% → 79%
Q4 5:24
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+19
26.3%
Jarquez Hunter run for 19 yds to the AUB 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
20.7%
Jarquez Hunter run for no gain to the AUB 41 run for 2 yds to the AUB 41 Jarquez Hunter fumbled, forced by Patrick McMorris, recovered by AUB Ricky CorreiaSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 25INT
4 plays · 23 yds · 2:1642% → 27%
Q4 4:00
1ST & 20
OPP 25
+1
42.2%
Ashton Stredick run for 1 yd to the AUB 24Similar
Q4 4:00
2ND & 19
OPP 24
0
40.1%
Sam Jackson V pass incomplete to Jeremiah HunterSimilar
Q4 4:00
3RD & 19
OPP 24
+6
36.5%
Sam Jackson V pass complete to Trond Grizzell for 6 yds to the AUB 18Similar
Q4 1:44
4TH & 13
OPP 18
0
27.3%
Sam Jackson V pass intercepted, touchback.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 26END OF GAME
9 plays · 11 yds · 1:4488% → 94%
Q4 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
12.0%
Damari Alston run for 3 yds to the AUB 23Similar
Q4 1:39
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+5
11.3%
Damari Alston run for 5 yds to the AUB 28Similar
Q4 1:33
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+7
10.2%
Damari Alston run for 7 yds to the AUB 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:27
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-1
9.3%
P. Thorne takes a kneeSimilar
Q4 1:27
2ND & 11
OWN 34
-1
9.7%
P. Thorne takes a kneeSimilar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 12
OWN 33
-2
5.8%
P. Thorne takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 6:31
Payton Thorne pass complete to Rivaldo Fairweather for 5 yds for a TD (Alex McPherson KICK)
-42.1
KEY PLAY · Q4 4:00
Ashton Stredick run for 1 yd to the AUB 24
+21.5
KEY PLAY · Q4 1:44
Damari Alston run for 3 yds to the AUB 23
-15.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com