2023 · Week 2 · Sep 9, 2023 · Michie Stadium
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Win probability · ARMY
modelARMY aheadDSU aheadconfidence bandkey playARMY scoreDSU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · Markel Johnson run for 6 yds to the DSU 22
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 8:00: Bryson Daily run for 13 yds for a TD (H. Reed Run For Two-point Conversion) — DSU win probability +0.3 pts (now 2%) (top driver: ARMY has the ball).
- TD · Q1 1:33: Bryson Daily pass complete to Isaiah Alston for 59 yds for a TD (Quinn Maretzki KICK) — ARMY win probability +0.6 pts (now 98%) (top driver: ARMY has the ball).
- TD · Q2 8:01: Bryson Daily run for 4 yds for a TD (Quinn Maretzki KICK) — ARMY win probability +1.0 pts (now 99%) (top driver: ARMY has the ball).
- TD · Q2 3:14: Bryson Daily pass complete to Isaiah Alston for 70 yds for a TD (Quinn Maretzki KICK) — ARMY win probability +1.0 pts (now 100%) (top driver: ARMY has the ball).
- TD · Q3 1:12: Jakobi Buchanan run for 1 yd for a TD (Quinn Maretzki KICK) — ARMY win probability +0.1 pts (now 100%) (top driver: ARMY has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
ARMY made the numbers' call on 3 of 5DSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
- Q1 12:58DSU 4th & 14 at DSU 21, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 1.5% before the snapGo for it1.4%−0.217% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.6%average punt
- Q1 12:58ARMY 4th & 2 at DSU 17, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call98.4%56% to convertField goal98.4%−0.180% to makePunt98.0%−0.5average punt
- Q1 2:14DSU 4th & 3 at ARMY 35, down 8Close callKicked a field goal · 2.5% before the snapGo for it2.5%53% to convertField goalTheir call2.4%−0.145% to makePunt2.4%−0.2average punt
- Q2 14:53DSU 4th & 6 at DSU 29, down 15Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.5% before the snapGo for it2.5%−<0.139% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.6%average punt
- Q2 12:34ARMY 4th & 9 at DSU 42, up 15Close callPunted · 97.7% before the snapGo for it97.7%32% to convertField goal97.7%−<0.130% to makePuntTheir call97.7%−<0.1average punt
- Q2 11:13DSU 4th & 3 at DSU 15, down 15Close callPunted · 2.5% before the snapGo for it2.5%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.5%−<0.1average punt
- Q2 3:28DSU 4th & 1 at ARMY 30, down 22Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call1.5%71% to convertField goal1.4%−0.156% to makePunt1.3%−0.2average punt
- Q2 0:17ARMY 4th & 2 at ARMY 39, up 36Close callWent for it · 99.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.6%−<0.157% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt99.6%average punt
- Q3 7:38DSU 4th & 6 at ARMY 14, down 36Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.3% before the snapGo for it0.2%−<0.137% to convertField goalTheir call0.3%84% to makePunt-0.2%−0.4average punt
- Q3 7:38ARMY 4th & 1 at ARMY 29, up 36Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.9%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt99.8%−0.1average punt
- Q3 7:38ARMY 4th & 3 at DSU 31, up 36Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.9%52% to convertField goal99.8%−0.154% to makePunt99.7%−0.2average punt
- Q4 13:36DSU 4th & 1 at DSU 45, down 43Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.1%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt-0.0%−0.1average punt
- Q4 9:56DSU 4th & 18 at DSU 19, down 50Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it-0.1%−0.112% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.0%average punt
- Q4 5:43DSU 4th & 6 at DSU 20, down 57Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.0%−<0.138% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.0%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARMY made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
- Q1 8:00ARMY Touchdown, up 6 before the tryClose callWent for two · convertedKick98.1%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call98.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 1:33ARMY Touchdown, up 14 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.9%97% to makeGo for two97.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 8:01ARMY Touchdown, up 21 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.6%97% to makeGo for two98.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 3:14ARMY Touchdown, up 28 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.7%97% to makeGo for two99.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 2:58ARMY Touchdown, up 35 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.8%97% to makeGo for two99.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 1:12ARMY Touchdown, up 42 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 12:20ARMY Touchdown, up 49 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 7:36ARMY Touchdown, up 56 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartDSUDrive 1PUNT5 plays · -4 yds · 2:021% → 2%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
98.6%
Aaron Angelos pass complete to Jordan Hull for 5 yds to the DSU 30Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+4
98.6%
Aaron Angelos pass complete to NyGhee Lolley for 4 yds to the DSU 26Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 26
-5
98.6%
Aaron Angelos sacked by Trey Sofia for a loss of 5 yards to the DSU 21Similar
Q1 12:58
4TH & 14
OWN 21
+25
98.4%
Jonathan Cardoza-Chicas punt for 43 yds , Cameron Jones returns for 25 yds to the DSU 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 2TD11 plays · 39 yds · 4:5898% → 98%
Q1 12:58
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+7
98.4%
Bryson Daily pass complete to Zach Mundell for 7 yds to the DSU 32Similar
Q1 12:58
2ND & 3
OPP 7
-3
98.4%
Bryson Daily run for 7 yds Army Penalty, Offensive Holding (Jordyn Law) to the DSU 13Similar
Q1 12:58
2ND & 3
OPP 7
-3
98.4%
Bryson Daily run for 7 yds Army Penalty, Offensive Holding (Jordyn Law) to the DSU 13Similar
Q1 8:00
2ND & 9
OPP 13
+13
98.1%
Bryson Daily run for 13 yds for a TD (H. Reed Run For Two-point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DSUDrive 3MISSED FG14 plays · 47 yds · 5:382% → 3%
Q1 7:52
2ND & 7
OPP 39
+6
98.0%
Marqui Adams pass complete to Jordan Hull for 6 yds to the ARMY 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 4TD2 plays · 65 yds · 0:4198% → 98%
DSUDrive 5PUNT7 plays · 4 yds · 1:402% → 2%
Q1 1:33
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-10
97.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun Inge,Wade rush middle for 5 yards gain to the DSU32 (Larkin,Casey) PENALTY DSU Holding (Cook,Isaiah) 10 yards from DSU27 to DSU17. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:53
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
97.8%
Jonathan Cardoza-Chicas punt for 29 yds, fair catch by Cameron Jones at the DSU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 6PUNT4 plays · 1 yds · 2:1998% → 98%
Q2 12:34
4TH & 9
OPP 42
0
97.7%
Cooper Allan punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Wade Inge at the DSU 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DSUDrive 7PUNT4 plays · 7 yds · 1:212% → 3%
Q2 11:13
4TH & 3
OWN 15
0
97.5%
Jonathan Cardoza-Chicas punt for 10 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the DSU 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 8TD6 plays · 25 yds · 3:1298% → 99%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DSUDrive 9DOWNS12 plays · 45 yds · 4:332% → 2%
Q2 8:01
3RD & 16
OWN 19
+25
98.6%
Marqui Adams pass complete to Jordan Hull for 25 yds to the DSU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:01
2ND & 9
OWN 45
+16
98.5%
Marqui Adams pass complete to Tahmir Ellis for 16 yds to the ARMY 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:01
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-5
98.4%
PENALTY DSU False Start (Cook,Isaiah) 5 yards from ARMY39 to ARMY44. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:01
1ST & 15
OPP 44
+13
98.5%
Marqui Adams pass complete to Myles Morales for 13 yds to the ARMY 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 10TD1 play · 70 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q2 3:14
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+70
99.5%
Bryson Daily pass complete to Isaiah Alston for 70 yds for a TD (Quinn Maretzki KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DSUDrive 11FUMBLE2 plays · -9 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q2 3:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
99.6%
Marqui Adams run for 9 yds to the DSU 16 Marqui Adams fumbled, recovered by DSU Jack LatoreSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 12TD1 play · 16 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q2 2:58
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
99.6%
Bryson Daily pass complete to Tyson Riley for 16 yds for a TD (Quinn Maretzki KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DSUDrive 13FUMBLE15 plays · 44 yds · 2:150% → 0%
Q2 2:58
2ND & 1
OWN 34
0
99.7%
Marqui Adams pass complete to NyGhee Lolley for no gain to the DSU 34Similar
Q2 1:56
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+17
99.8%
Marqui Adams pass complete to Jordan Hull for 17 yds to the ARMY 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:56
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+21
99.7%
Marqui Adams pass complete to Myles Morales for 21 yds to the ARMY 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:56
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+19
99.7%
Marqui Adams pass complete to Tahmir Ellis for 19 yds to the ARMY 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
-5
99.8%
PENALTY DSU False Start (Maxwell,Joseph) 5 yards from ARMY07 to ARMY12. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 12
-5
99.8%
PENALTY DSU Delay Of Game 5 yards from ARMY12 to ARMY17. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:43
3RD & GOAL
OPP 17
-14
99.8%
Marqui Adams sacked by Kyle Lewis for a loss of 14 yards to the ARMY 31 Marqui Adams fumbled, recovered by DSU Kyle Lewis , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 14MISSED FG9 plays · 28 yds · 0:43100% → 100%
ARMYDrive 15FUMBLE2 plays · 35 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 14:38
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+35
99.7%
Ay'Jaun Marshall run for 35 yds to the DSU 6 Ay'Jaun Marshall fumbled, recovered by DSU Larrey Williams IIISimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DSUDrive 16MISSED FG21 plays · 80 yds · 7:000% → 0%
Q3 14:38
3RD & 9
OWN 7
+15
99.7%
Shotgun Adams,Marqui pass incomplete short right to Hull,Jordan PENALTY ARMY Personal Foul (Gerena,Brett) 15 yards from DSU07 to DSU22, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 14:38
3RD & 8
OWN 24
+8
99.7%
Marqui Adams pass complete to Ronald Jenkins for 8 yds to the DSU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:38
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+12
99.7%
Marqui Adams pass complete to Ronald Jenkins for 12 yds Ronald Jenkins fumbled, recovered by DSU Khyheem Waleed for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:38
2ND & 5
OWN 49
+7
99.7%
Marqui Adams pass complete to EJ Core for 7 yds to the ARMY 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:38
1ST & 15
OPP 49
+9
99.7%
Marqui Adams pass complete to Kristian Tate for 9 yds to the ARMY 40Similar
Q3 14:38
3RD & 6
OPP 40
+12
99.7%
Marqui Adams pass complete to Myles Morales for 12 yds to the ARMY 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:38
3RD & 10
OPP 28
+10
99.7%
Shotgun Adams,Marqui pass incomplete deep middle to Hull,Jordan PENALTY ARMY Holding (Moore,Jabari) 10 yards from ARMY28 to ARMY18, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 17TD13 plays · 80 yds · 6:26100% → 100%
DSUDrive 18DOWNS7 plays · 19 yds · 2:360% → 0%
ARMYDrive 19TD3 plays · 44 yds · 1:16100% → 100%
DSUDrive 20PUNT5 plays · -8 yds · 2:170% → 0%
Q4 12:13
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-8
100.0%
C.J. Henry sacked by Elo Modozie for a loss of 8 yards to the DSU 19Similar
Q4 12:13
3RD & 20
OWN 17
+2
100.0%
C.J. Henry pass complete to Ronald Jenkins for 2 yds to the DSU 19Similar
Q4 9:56
4TH & 18
OWN 19
+24
100.0%
Jonathan Cardoza-Chicas punt for 42 yds , Hayden Reed returns for 24 yds to the DSU 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 21TD5 plays · 37 yds · 2:20100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DSUDrive 22PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 1:440% → 0%
Q4 7:27
3RD & 13
OWN 13
+7
100.0%
C.J. Henry pass complete to Ronald Jenkins for 7 yds to the DSU 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 23END OF GAME8 plays · 75 yds · 5:43100% → 100%
Q4 5:43
2ND & 1
OWN 25
+25
100.0%
Larry Robinson pass complete to Tyler Brennan for 25 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 8:01
Bryson Daily run for 4 yds for a TD (Quinn Maretzki KICK)
+1
TD · Q2 3:14
Bryson Daily pass complete to Isaiah Alston for 70 yds for a TD (Quinn Maretzki KICK)
+1
TD · Q1 1:33
Bryson Daily pass complete to Isaiah Alston for 59 yds for a TD (Quinn Maretzki KICK)
+0.6