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TEX

Texas 34 at Alabama 24

ALA
2023 · Week 2 · Sep 9, 2023 · Bryant-Denny Stadium
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Win probability · ALA
modelALA aheadTEX aheadconfidence bandkey playALA scoreTEX score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDFGFGFGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 10:55 · Ryan Sanborn punt for 45 yds, downed at the ALA 3
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+40.5+20.30−20.3−40.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 10Pregame prior+16.4Home team on offense−0.2Score differential−0.3Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 0:14: Jalen Milroe pass complete to Jermaine Burton for 49 yds for a TD (Will Reichard KICK) — ALA win probability +19.9 pts (now 70%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 14:05: Quinn Ewers pass complete to Adonai Mitchell for 7 yds for a TD (Bert Auburn KICK) — TEX win probability +31.7 pts (now 66%) (top driver: TEX has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 13:50: Jonathon Brooks run for 5 yds for a TD (Bert Auburn KICK) — TEX win probability +23.5 pts (now 79%) (top driver: TEX has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 11:08: Jalen Milroe pass complete to Amari Niblack for 39 yds for a TD (Jalen Milroe pass to Isaiah Bond for Two-Point Conversion) — ALA win probability +27.2 pts (now 52%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  5. TD · Q4 8:23: Quinn Ewers pass complete to Adonai Mitchell for 39 yds for a TD (Bert Auburn KICK) — TEX win probability +20.0 pts (now 86%) (top driver: TEX has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ALA made the numbers' call on 9 of 9TEX made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
  1. Q1 10:55TEX 4th & 11 at ALA 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.9%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:44TEX 4th & 2 at ALA 12, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 32.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    32.4%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    32.2%−0.2
    86% to make
    Punt
    30.9%−1.5
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:42TEX 4th & 4 at ALA 4, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 32.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.6%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    32.5%−0.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    30.9%−1.7
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:54ALA 4th & 3 at TEX 42, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 66.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    66.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    65.9%−0.8
    30% to make
    Punt
    66.2%−0.5
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:55ALA 4th & 10 at TEX 24, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 65.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.2%−0.4
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    65.6%
    68% to make
    Punt
    63.1%−2.5
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:30ALA 4th & 17 at ALA 32, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.8%−2.5
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.3%
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:05TEX 4th & 8 at ALA 11, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 48.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.3%−0.5
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    47.8%
    87% to make
    Punt
    41.9%−6.0
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:58ALA 4th & 8 at ALA 47, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.2%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.3%
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:34TEX 4th & 9 at TEX 10, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.2%−1.6
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.8%
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:00ALA 4th & 5 at TEX 12, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 45.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.5%−0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    44.7%
    86% to make
    Punt
    38.5%−6.2
    average punt
  11. Q3 11:04ALA 4th & 8 at TEX 33, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 47.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.7%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    46.8%
    49% to make
    Punt
    45.3%−1.5
    average punt
  12. Q3 9:24TEX 4th & 11 at TEX 21, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.9%−3.8
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.7%
    average punt
  13. Q3 7:50ALA 4th & 4 at ALA 41, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.5%−0.3
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.8%
    average punt
  14. Q3 6:26TEX 4th & 6 at ALA 24, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 50.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.9%−0.4
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    50.3%
    68% to make
    Punt
    39.6%−10.7
    average punt
  15. Q3 4:59ALA 4th & 20 at ALA 14, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.6%−5.8
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.4%
    average punt
  16. Q3 3:47TEX 4th & 1 at TEX 48, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 55.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    56.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    51.7%−4.2
    average punt
  17. Q3 2:52TEX 4th & 2 at ALA 42, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 56.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    57.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    52.5%−5.3
    30% to make
    Punt
    54.0%−3.9
    average punt
  18. Q4 7:14ALA 4th & 18 at ALA 12, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.8%−2.6
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.4%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ALA made the numbers' call on 1 of 2TEX made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q2 13:26TEX Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    38.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 0:14ALA Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 14:05TEX Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.5%−0.3
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 13:50TEX Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 11:08ALA Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    37.3%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    36.8%−0.5
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 8:23TEX Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.9%−0.6
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TEXDrive 1PUNT
10 plays · 27 yds · 4:0032% → 33%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
67.6%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to CJ Baxter for 11 yds to the TEX 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:25
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
67.6%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Xavier Worthy for 2 yds to the TEX 38Similar
Q1 13:54
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+4
67.5%
CJ Baxter run for 4 yds to the TEX 42Similar
Q1 13:18
3RD & 4
OWN 42
+11
67.3%
Quinn Ewers run for 11 yds to the ALA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:03
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
67.2%
Jonathon Brooks run for 2 yds to the ALA 45Similar
Q1 12:00
2ND & 8
OPP 45
0
67.0%
Quinn Ewers pass incomplete to Ja'Tavion SandersSimilar
Q1 11:53
3RD & 8
OPP 45
+2
67.0%
Jonathon Brooks run for 2 yds to the ALA 43Similar
Q1 11:09
4TH & 6
OPP 43
-5
67.1%
Texas Penalty, Delay of Game (TEAM) to the ALA 48Similar
Q1 10:55
4TH & 11
OPP 48
0
67.3%
Ryan Sanborn punt for 45 yds, downed at the ALA 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 2INT
7 plays · 38 yds · 2:2367% → 67%
Q1 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+9
67.1%
Jase McClellan run for 9 yds to the ALA 12Similar
Q1 10:21
2ND & 1
OWN 12
+5
67.1%
Jase McClellan run for 5 yds to the ALA 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
67.1%
Jalen Milroe pass incomplete to Amari NiblackSimilar
Q1 9:42
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+12
67.0%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Jase McClellan for 12 yds to the ALA 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:05
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+12
67.1%
Jalen Milroe run for 12 yds to the ALA 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:35
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
67.2%
Jalen Milroe pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:27
2ND & 10
OWN 41
-16
67.0%
Jalen Milroe pass intercepted Jahdae Barron return for 16 yds to the ALA 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 3FG
10 plays · 26 yds · 3:4034% → 35%
Q1 8:22
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+8
65.9%
CJ Baxter run for 8 yds to the ALA 22Similar
Q1 7:43
2ND & 2
OPP 22
+2
65.6%
Keilan Robinson run for 2 yds to the ALA 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:10
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+5
65.4%
Adonai Mitchell run for 5 yds to the ALA 15 Adonai Mitchell fumbled, forced by Malachi Moore, recovered by TEX Ja'Tavion SandersSimilar
Q1 6:24
2ND & 5
OPP 15
+3
65.3%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to CJ Baxter for 3 yds to the ALA 12Similar
Q1 5:52
3RD & 2
OPP 12
0
65.4%
Quinn Ewers pass incomplete to Xavier WorthySimilar
Q1 5:44
4TH & 2
OPP 12
+7
65.9%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Ja'Tavion Sanders for 7 yds to the ALA 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
64.9%
Quinn Ewers pass incomplete to Jordan WhittingtonSimilar
Q1 5:09
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
64.9%
Keilan Robinson run for 1 yd to the ALA 4Similar
Q1 4:46
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
65.2%
Quinn Ewers pass incomplete to Xavier WorthySimilar
Q1 4:42
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+22
65.1%
Bert Auburn 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 4FG
13 plays · 51 yds · 4:4365% → 66%
Q1 4:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
64.9%
Jalen Milroe run for 11 yds to the ALA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:11
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+15
65.1%
Jase McClellan run for 15 yds to the TEX 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:36
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+1
65.9%
Jase McClellan run for 1 yd to the TEX 48Similar
Q1 3:06
2ND & 9
OPP 48
+5
65.9%
Roydell Williams run for 5 yds to the TEX 43Similar
Q1 2:31
3RD & 4
OPP 43
+1
65.5%
Roydell Williams run for 1 yd to the TEX 42Similar
Q1 1:54
4TH & 3
OPP 42
+6
64.8%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Malik Benson for 6 yds to the TEX 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:41
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+6
65.6%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Amari Niblack for 6 yds to the TEX 30Similar
Q1 1:18
2ND & 4
OPP 30
+6
66.0%
Jase McClellan run for 6 yds to the TEX 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:34
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
65.9%
Jase McClellan run for no gain to the TEX 24Similar
Q1 0:05
2ND & 10
OPP 24
0
65.8%
Jalen Milroe pass incomplete to Ja'Corey BrooksSimilar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 10
OPP 24
0
65.0%
Jalen Milroe pass incomplete to Roydell WilliamsSimilar
Q2 14:55
4TH & 10
OPP 24
+42
65.9%
Will Reichard 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 5TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:2335% → 43%
Q2 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
64.8%
Quinn Ewers pass incomplete to Xavier WorthySimilar
Q2 14:44
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
64.9%
CJ Baxter run for 3 yds to the TEX 28Similar
Q2 14:05
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+13
65.2%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Jordan Whittington for 13 yds to the TEX 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+15
63.5%
Worthy, Xavier pass incomplete to Mitchell, Adonai, PENALTY ALABAMA pass interference (Arnold, Terrion) 15 yards to the ALABAMA44, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TEXAS.Similar
Q2 13:26
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+44
56.9%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Xavier Worthy for 44 yds for a TD (Bert Auburn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 6PUNT
8 plays · 7 yds · 2:5159% → 56%
Q2 13:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
58.9%
Roydell Williams run for 5 yds to the ALA 30Similar
Q2 12:50
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
58.9%
Jalen Milroe pass incomplete to Jase McClellanSimilar
Q2 12:42
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+9
58.2%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Jermaine Burton for 9 yds to the ALA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
59.0%
Roydell Williams run for no gain to the ALA 39Similar
Q2 11:53
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+3
58.6%
Jalen Milroe run for 3 yds to the ALA 42Similar
Q2 11:12
3RD & 7
OWN 42
-10
57.9%
Jalen Milroe sacked by David Gbenda for a loss of 10 yards to the ALA 32Similar
Q2 10:30
4TH & 17
OWN 32
0
56.1%
James Burnip punt for 61 yds, downed at the TEX 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 7FG
15 plays · 82 yds · 6:1943% → 52%
Q2 10:24
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+15
57.1%
Baxter, CJ rush for no gain to the TEXAS7, PENALTY ALABAMA face mask (Eboigbe, Justin) 15 yards to the TEXAS22, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TEXAS.Similar
Q2 10:19
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+7
56.7%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Jaydon Blue for 7 yds to the TEX 29Similar
Q2 9:40
2ND & 3
OWN 29
-2
55.0%
Jaydon Blue run for a loss of 2 yards to the TEX 27Similar
Q2 9:00
3RD & 5
OWN 27
+18
55.7%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Ja'Tavion Sanders for 18 yds to the TEX 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:36
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+17
53.6%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Xavier Worthy for 17 yds to the ALA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:20
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+3
53.1%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Xavier Worthy for 3 yds to the ALA 35Similar
Q2 7:48
2ND & 7
OPP 35
+3
51.1%
Xavier Worthy run for 3 yds to the ALA 32Similar
Q2 7:00
3RD & 4
OPP 32
+9
50.9%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Xavier Worthy for 9 yds to the ALA 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:43
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+4
50.2%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Jonathon Brooks for 4 yds to the ALA 19Similar
Q2 6:18
2ND & 6
OPP 19
+3
49.9%
CJ Baxter run for 3 yds to the ALA 16Similar
Q2 6:02
3RD & 3
OPP 16
+3
50.2%
CJ Baxter run for 3 yds to the ALA 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:23
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
49.1%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Jordan Whittington for no gain to the ALA 13Similar
Q2 4:46
2ND & 10
OPP 13
0
48.7%
Quinn Ewers pass incomplete to Jonathon BrooksSimilar
Q2 4:39
3RD & 10
OPP 13
+2
49.4%
Quinn Ewers run for 2 yds to the ALA 11Similar
Q2 4:05
4TH & 8
OPP 11
+29
48.2%
Bert Auburn 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 22 yds · 1:5748% → 46%
Q2 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
47.8%
Jalen Milroe run for 20 yds to the ALA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:21
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-1
48.9%
Jase McClellan run for a loss of 1 yard to the ALA 44Similar
Q2 2:50
2ND & 11
OWN 44
0
47.8%
Jalen Milroe pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:42
3RD & 11
OWN 44
+3
46.6%
Jalen Milroe run for 3 yds to the ALA 47Similar
Q2 1:58
4TH & 8
OWN 47
0
45.6%
James Burnip punt for 44 yds, downed at the TEX 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:1953% → 52%
Q2 1:53
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+1
46.8%
CJ Baxter run for 1 yd to the TEX 10Similar
Q2 1:48
2ND & 9
OWN 10
0
46.6%
Quinn Ewers pass incomplete to Ja'Tavion SandersSimilar
Q2 1:44
3RD & 9
OWN 10
0
47.4%
Quinn Ewers pass incomplete to Xavier WorthySimilar
Q2 1:34
4TH & 9
OWN 10
-6
47.8%
Ryan Sanborn punt for 56 yds , Kool-Aid McKinstry returns for a loss of 6 yards to the ALA 4 Texas Penalty, Defensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the ALA 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 10END OF HALF
12 plays · 50 yds · 1:2845% → 49%
Q2 1:28
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-1
45.4%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Kobe Prentice for a loss of 1 yard to the ALA 37Similar
Q2 0:57
2ND & 11
OWN 37
+3
44.5%
Jalen Milroe run for 3 yds to the ALA 40Similar
Q2 0:44
3RD & 8
OWN 40
+28
43.9%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Kobe Prentice for 28 yds to the TEX 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:32
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+15
47.8%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Kobe Prentice for 15 yds to the TEX 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:27
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+5
47.4%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Roydell Williams for 5 yds to the TEX 12Similar
Q2 0:23
2ND & 5
OPP 12
-3
46.8%
Jalen Milroe run for a loss of 3 yards to the TEX 15Similar
Q2 0:13
3RD & 8
OPP 15
-5
44.7%
Milroe, Jalen pass complete to Burton, Jermaine for 15 yards to the TEXAS0, PENALTY ALABAMA ineligible downfield on pass (Dalcourt, Darrian) 5 yards to the TEXAS20, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:13
3RD & 13
OPP 20
-5
43.7%
Alabama Penalty, Illegal Motion (Seth McLaughlin) to the TEX 25Similar
Q2 0:05
3RD & 18
OPP 25
+13
43.5%
Jalen Milroe run for 13 yds to the TEX 12Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 5
OPP 12
+30
49.4%
Will Reichard 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 11FG
10 plays · 42 yds · 3:5349% → 55%
Q3 14:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
48.5%
Jase McClellan run for 3 yds to the ALA 28Similar
Q3 14:28
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+3
48.5%
Jase McClellan run for 3 yds to the ALA 31Similar
Q3 13:47
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+34
47.4%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Isaiah Bond for 34 yds to the TEX 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:10
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+3
52.4%
Jase McClellan run for 3 yds to the TEX 32Similar
Q3 12:28
2ND & 7
OPP 32
-10
51.8%
Milroe, Jalen pass complete to Burton, Jermaine for 32 yards to the TEXAS0, PENALTY ALABAMA holding (Proctor, Kadyn) 10 yards to the TEXAS42, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 12:26
2ND & 17
OPP 42
-5
48.3%
Alabama Penalty, Illegal Motion (Seth McLaughlin) to the TEX 47Similar
Q3 12:21
2ND & 22
OPP 47
+9
48.2%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Kobe Prentice for 9 yds to the TEX 38Similar
Q3 11:46
3RD & 13
OPP 38
+5
47.3%
Jalen Milroe run for 5 yds to the TEX 33Similar
Q3 11:04
4TH & 8
OPP 33
+51
54.8%
Will Reichard 51 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 1:2548% → 45%
Q3 10:49
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-5
52.5%
CJ Baxter run for a loss of 5 yards to the TEX 17Similar
Q3 10:10
2ND & 15
OWN 17
+4
52.7%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to CJ Baxter for 4 yds to the TEX 21Similar
Q3 9:35
3RD & 11
OWN 21
0
53.8%
Quinn Ewers pass incomplete to Jordan WhittingtonSimilar
Q3 9:24
4TH & 11
OWN 21
+59
54.9%
Ryan Sanborn punt for 49 yds, downed at the ALA 30 Alabama Penalty, Offensive Holding (Terrion Arnold) to the ALA 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 21 yds · 1:2853% → 52%
Q3 9:18
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+15
52.9%
Milroe, Jalen pass incomplete to Bond, Isaiah, PENALTY TEXAS pass interference (Holmes, Gavin) 15 yards to the ALABAMA35, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN ALABAMA.Similar
Q3 9:13
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
53.5%
Jam Miller run for 5 yds to the ALA 40Similar
Q3 8:33
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+1
55.9%
Jam Miller run for 1 yd to the ALA 41Similar
Q3 7:58
3RD & 4
OWN 41
0
54.6%
Jalen Milroe pass incomplete to Jase McClellanSimilar
Q3 7:50
4TH & 4
OWN 41
0
51.8%
James Burnip punt for 53 yds, fair catch by Xavier Worthy at the TEX 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 14MISSED FG
6 plays · 70 yds · 1:1848% → 52%
Q3 7:44
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+32
51.8%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Adonai Mitchell for 32 yds to the TEX 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:17
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+34
47.1%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Ja'Tavion Sanders for 34 yds to the ALA 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:55
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+4
44.0%
CJ Baxter run for 4 yds to the ALA 24Similar
Q3 6:37
2ND & 6
OPP 24
0
43.8%
Quinn Ewers pass incomplete to Gunnar HelmSimilar
Q3 6:31
3RD & 6
OPP 24
0
45.3%
Quinn Ewers pass incomplete to Xavier WorthySimilar
Q3 6:26
4TH & 6
OPP 24
+42
48.4%
Bert Auburn 42 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 15PUNT
5 plays · -10 yds · 1:2250% → 46%
Q3 6:21
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
50.4%
Jalen Milroe pass incomplete to Kobe PrenticeSimilar
Q3 6:17
2ND & 10
OWN 24
0
50.0%
Roydell Williams run for no gain to the ALA 24Similar
Q3 5:42
3RD & 10
OWN 24
-5
48.3%
Alabama Penalty, False Start (JC Latham) to the ALA 19Similar
Q3 5:38
3RD & 15
OWN 19
-5
48.2%
Jalen Milroe sacked by Anthony Hill Jr. for a loss of 5 yards to the ALA 14Similar
Q3 4:59
4TH & 20
OWN 14
0
45.9%
James Burnip punt for 47 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TEX 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 16DOWNS
8 plays · 20 yds · 1:5955% → 57%
Q3 4:51
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
45.0%
Quinn Ewers pass incomplete to Adonai MitchellSimilar
Q3 4:42
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+9
45.4%
Jonathon Brooks run for 9 yds to the TEX 48Similar
Q3 4:30
3RD & 1
OWN 48
0
42.5%
Jonathon Brooks run for no gain to the TEX 48Similar
Q3 3:47
4TH & 1
OWN 48
+4
44.0%
Quinn Ewers run for a loss of 2 yards to the TEX 46 yard line Quinn Ewers fumbled, recovered by TEX Jonathon Brooks , return to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down Jonathon Brooks run for 4 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:20
1ST & 10
50
+3
40.3%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Quinn Ewers for 3 yds to the ALA 47Similar
Q3 3:16
2ND & 7
OPP 47
+5
40.3%
Jonathon Brooks run for 5 yds to the ALA 42Similar
Q3 2:59
3RD & 2
OPP 42
0
40.1%
Quinn Ewers pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:52
4TH & 2
OPP 42
+1
42.8%
Jonathon Brooks run for 1 yd to the ALA 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 17TD
5 plays · 59 yds · 2:3450% → 70%
Q3 2:48
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+1
49.6%
Roydell Williams run for 1 yd to the ALA 42Similar
Q3 2:11
2ND & 9
OWN 42
+2
47.8%
Jase McClellan run for 2 yds to the ALA 44Similar
Q3 1:28
3RD & 7
OWN 44
+8
47.6%
Jalen Milroe run for 8 yds to the TEX 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:42
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-1
50.3%
Jalen Milroe sacked by T'Vondre Sweat for a loss of 1 yard to the TEX 49Similar
Q3 0:14
2ND & 11
OPP 49
+49
70.2%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Jermaine Burton for 49 yds for a TD (Will Reichard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 18TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:0232% → 66%
Q3 0:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
67.9%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Keilan Robinson for 3 yds to the TEX 28Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+15
67.4%
Ewers, Quinn pass incomplete, PENALTY ALABAMA pass interference (Arnold, Terrion) 15 yards to the TEXAS43, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TEXAS.Similar
Q4 14:20
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+50
66.1%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Ja'Tavion Sanders for 50 yds to the ALA 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
34.4%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Adonai Mitchell for 7 yds for a TD (Bert Auburn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 19INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0044% → 44%
Q4 13:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-32
44.4%
Jalen Milroe pass intercepted Jerrin Thompson return for 32 yds to the ALA 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 20TD
1 play · 5 yds · 0:0079% → 79%
Q4 13:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
21.0%
Jonathon Brooks run for 5 yds for a TD (Bert Auburn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 21TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:3623% → 52%
Q4 13:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
23.4%
Jalen Milroe pass incomplete to Isaiah BondSimilar
Q4 13:37
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-7
23.0%
Jalen Milroe sacked by Ethan Burke for a loss of 7 yards to the ALA 18Similar
Q4 12:48
3RD & 17
OWN 18
+27
20.6%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Malik Benson for 27 yds to the ALA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:18
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+17
23.2%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Kobe Prentice for 17 yds to the TEX 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:49
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-1
24.5%
Jase McClellan run for a loss of 1 yard to the TEX 39Similar
Q4 11:08
2ND & 11
OPP 39
+39
51.6%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Amari Niblack for 39 yds for a TD (Jalen Milroe pass to Isaiah Bond for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 22TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:3657% → 86%
Q4 10:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
43.1%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Ja'Tavion Sanders for 5 yds to the TEX 30 Texas Penalty, Offensive Holding (Kelvin Banks Jr.) to the TEX 20Similar
Q4 10:55
1ST & 15
OWN 20
0
41.0%
Quinn Ewers pass incomplete to Adonai MitchellSimilar
Q4 10:29
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+31
41.0%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Jordan Whittington for 31 yds to the ALA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:51
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
34.8%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to CJ Baxter for 3 yds to the ALA 46Similar
Q4 9:25
2ND & 7
OPP 46
+7
34.6%
CJ Baxter run for 7 yds to the ALA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:03
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
34.0%
CJ Baxter run for no gain to the ALA 39Similar
Q4 8:23
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+39
14.0%
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Adonai Mitchell for 39 yds for a TD (Bert Auburn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 23PUNT
5 plays · -8 yds · 0:5817% → 14%
Q4 8:12
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
16.5%
Jalen Milroe pass incomplete to Isaiah BondSimilar
Q4 8:06
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
16.1%
Jalen Milroe pass incomplete to Amari NiblackSimilar
Q4 8:00
3RD & 10
OWN 20
-8
15.2%
Jalen Milroe sacked by Anthony Hill Jr. and Jaray Bledsoe for a loss of 8 yards to the ALA 12Similar
Q4 7:14
4TH & 18
OWN 12
0
13.7%
James Burnip punt for 58 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TEX 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 24END OF GAME
17 plays · 34 yds · 6:4186% → 97%
Q4 7:08
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
13.6%
CJ Baxter run for 3 yds to the TEX 33Similar
Q4 6:14
2ND & 7
OWN 33
+5
11.8%
Jonathon Brooks run for 5 yds to the TEX 38Similar
Q4 5:27
3RD & 2
OWN 38
+3
11.0%
Jonathon Brooks run for 3 yds to the TEX 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:14
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
9.6%
Jonathon Brooks run for 2 yds to the TEX 43Similar
Q4 5:09
2ND & 8
OWN 43
+1
9.1%
Jonathon Brooks run for 1 yd to the TEX 44Similar
Q4 5:03
3RD & 7
OWN 44
+14
8.8%
Jonathon Brooks run for 14 yds to the ALA 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:18
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+3
7.6%
Keilan Robinson run for 3 yds to the ALA 39Similar
Q4 3:36
2ND & 7
OPP 39
0
7.2%
Jonathon Brooks run for no gain to the ALA 39Similar
Q4 2:48
3RD & 7
OPP 39
+4
4.4%
Jonathon Brooks run for 4 yds to the ALA 35Similar
Q4 2:09
4TH & 3
OPP 35
+5
4.6%
Alabama Penalty, Defensive Offside (Trezmen Marshall) to the ALA 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:45
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-2
3.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the ALA 32Similar
Q4 1:01
2ND & 12
OPP 32
-2
3.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the ALA 34Similar
Q4 0:27
3RD & 14
OPP 34
-2
3.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the ALA 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 14:05
Quinn Ewers pass complete to Adonai Mitchell for 7 yds for a TD (Bert Auburn KICK)
-31.7
TD · Q4 11:08
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Amari Niblack for 39 yds for a TD (Jalen Milroe pass to Isaiah Bond for Two-Point Conversion)
+27.2
TD · Q4 13:50
Jonathon Brooks run for 5 yds for a TD (Bert Auburn KICK)
-23.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com