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LSU

LSU 24 at Florida State 45

FSU
2023 · Week 1 · Sep 3, 2023 · Camping World Stadium
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Win probability · FSU
modelFSU aheadLSU aheadconfidence bandkey playFSU scoreLSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 4:47 · Jayden Daniels pass complete to Kyren Lacy for 3 yds to the FSU 45
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 149Home team on offense+31.3Pregame prior−0.7Score differential+22.9Garbage-time factor+7.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+8.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+2.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 6:02: Noah Cain run for 1 yd for a TD (Damian Ramos KICK) — LSU win probability +8.0 pts (now 67%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 1:01: Jordan Travis pass complete to Keon Coleman for 21 yds for a TD (Ryan Fitzgerald KICK) — FSU win probability +15.7 pts (now 54%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
  3. FG · Q3 9:19: Ryan Fitzgerald 33 yd FG GOOD — FSU win probability +8.1 pts (now 53%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 2:42: Jordan Travis run for 1 yd for a TD (Ryan Fitzgerald KICK) — FSU win probability +22.5 pts (now 77%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 10:18: Jordan Travis pass complete to Keon Coleman for 7 yds for a TD (Ryan Fitzgerald KICK) — FSU win probability +8.2 pts (now 94%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
FSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 5LSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 7
  1. Q1 11:54LSU 4th & 1 at FSU 1, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 54.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    54.4%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    54.2%−0.2
    94% to make
    Punt
    53.8%−0.7
    average punt
  2. Q1 2:21FSU 4th & 1 at FSU 34, tied
    Close callPunted · 47.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.5%−0.4
    average punt
  3. Q2 14:11LSU 4th & 1 at FSU 13, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 53.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    52.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    52.0%−0.9
    85% to make
    Punt
    49.1%−3.8
    average punt
  4. Q2 10:42FSU 4th & 7 at FSU 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.1%−0.6
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.7%
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:35LSU 4th & 2 at LSU 34, tied
    Close callPunted · 51.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.1%−0.3
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:49FSU 4th & 4 at FSU 7, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.0%−0.3
    45% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.3%
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:00LSU 4th & 10 at FSU 19, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 52.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.8%−1.4
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    52.1%
    77% to make
    Punt
    44.7%−7.4
    average punt
  8. Q3 9:19FSU 4th & 3 at LSU 15, down 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 46.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.3%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    45.7%−0.7
    83% to make
    Punt
    35.6%−10.8
    average punt
  9. Q3 6:27LSU 4th & 6 at FSU 47, tied
    Close callPunted · 50.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.4%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  10. Q3 3:05FSU 4th & 2 at LSU 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 55.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    57.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    52.6%−4.4
    30% to make
    Punt
    53.9%−3.1
    average punt
  11. Q4 8:01LSU 4th & 14 at LSU 21, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.6%−0.8
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.4%
    average punt
  12. Q4 4:47LSU 4th & 4 at FSU 48, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 0.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.8%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.8%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 6LSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 7:53FSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 3:48LSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 6:02LSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 1:01FSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 2:42FSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 10:18FSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.9%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.1%
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 7:00FSU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.2%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.2%
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 1:26FSU Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 1:15LSU Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.5%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.5%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
LSUDrive 1DOWNS
10 plays · 61 yds · 2:5559% → 58%
Q1 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+55
40.8%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Tre Bradford for 55 yds to the FSU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:20
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+15
40.8%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Mason Taylor for 15 yds to the FSU 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
40.9%
Tre Bradford run for 1 yd to the FSU 4Similar
Q1 13:23
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
41.0%
Jayden Daniels run for 1 yd to the FSU 3 for a 1ST down Florida State Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Patrick Payton) to the FSU 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
41.1%
Josh Williams run for no gain to the FSU 1Similar
Q1 12:03
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
41.2%
Jayden Daniels pass incomplete to Malik NabersSimilar
Q1 11:58
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
41.3%
Jayden Daniels pass incomplete to Malik NabersSimilar
Q1 11:54
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
-13
41.6%
Jayden Daniels sacked by DJ Lundy for a loss of 13 yards to the FSU 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 2TD
10 plays · 86 yds · 3:5542% → 47%
Q1 11:48
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+5
41.8%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Jaheim Bell for 5 yds to the FSU 19Similar
Q1 11:14
2ND & 5
OWN 19
0
42.0%
Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Keon ColemanSimilar
Q1 11:09
3RD & 5
OWN 19
+12
41.9%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Johnny Wilson for 12 yds to the FSU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:29
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
42.4%
Lawrance Toafili run for 2 yds to the FSU 33Similar
Q1 9:54
2ND & 8
OWN 33
+13
42.6%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Johnny Wilson for 13 yds to the FSU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:18
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-15
43.3%
Travis, Jordan pass incomplete to Coleman, Keon, PENALTY FLORIDAST pass interference (Wilson, Johnny) 15 yards to the FLORIDAST31, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:04
1ST & 25
OWN 31
+12
42.8%
Trey Benson run for 12 yds to the FSU 43Similar
Q1 8:38
2ND & 13
OWN 43
0
43.1%
Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Destyn HillSimilar
Q1 8:26
3RD & 13
OWN 43
+17
42.9%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Johnny Wilson for 17 yds to the LSU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:53
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+40
46.7%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Keon Coleman for 40 yds for a TD (Ryan Fitzgerald KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 3TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:4654% → 57%
Q1 7:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
45.9%
Jayden Daniels run for 2 yds to the LSU 27Similar
Q1 7:22
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+9
46.0%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Brian Thomas Jr. for 9 yds to the LSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
46.1%
Noah Cain run for 1 yd to the LSU 37Similar
Q1 6:04
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+2
46.6%
Noah Cain run for 2 yds to the LSU 39Similar
Q1 5:32
3RD & 7
OWN 39
+13
47.0%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Malik Nabers for 13 yds to the FSU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:56
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+14
46.5%
Jayden Daniels run for 14 yds to the FSU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:18
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
46.3%
Jayden Daniels pass incomplete to Josh WilliamsSimilar
Q1 4:08
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+33
46.4%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Kyren Lacy for 33 yds to the FSU 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
42.6%
Tre Bradford run for 1 yd for a TD (Damian Ramos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:2445% → 45%
Q1 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
44.5%
Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Johnny WilsonSimilar
Q1 3:34
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
44.5%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Trey Benson for 7 yds to the FSU 32Similar
Q1 3:09
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+2
44.6%
Jordan Travis run for 2 yds to the FSU 34Similar
Q1 2:21
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
44.8%
Alex Mastromanno punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Gregory Clayton Jr. at the LSU 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 5DOWNS
8 plays · 70 yds · 3:0756% → 56%
Q1 2:18
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+7
44.3%
Daniels, Jayden pass incomplete to Smith, Maason, PENALTY FLORIDAST pass interference (Green, Renardo) 7 yards to the LSU22, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN LSU.Similar
Q1 2:09
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+22
44.3%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Aaron Anderson for 7 yds to the LSU 29 for a 1ST down Florida State Penalty, Personal Foul (Kevin Knowles II) to the LSU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:56
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+1
43.2%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Kyren Lacy for 1 yd to the LSU 45Similar
Q1 1:23
2ND & 9
OWN 45
+33
43.4%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Brian Thomas Jr. for 18 yds to the FSU 37 for a 1ST down Florida State Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the FSU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:40
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+3
42.6%
Jayden Daniels run for 3 yds to the FSU 19Similar
Q1 0:01
2ND & 7
OPP 19
0
42.7%
Jayden Daniels pass incomplete to Malik NabersSimilar
Q2 14:53
3RD & 7
OPP 19
+6
43.3%
Josh Williams run for 6 yds to the FSU 13Similar
Q2 14:11
4TH & 1
OPP 13
-2
44.1%
Jayden Daniels sacked by Shyheim Brown and Kalen DeLoach for a loss of 2 yards to the FSU 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 6FUMBLE
7 plays · 17 yds · 3:1446% → 47%
Q2 13:56
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+3
46.4%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Kyle Morlock for 3 yds to the FSU 18Similar
Q2 13:37
2ND & 7
OWN 18
+2
46.5%
Trey Benson run for 2 yds to the FSU 20Similar
Q2 12:54
3RD & 5
OWN 20
+8
46.1%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Lawrance Toafili for 8 yds to the FSU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:12
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
47.5%
Lawrance Toafili run for 3 yds to the FSU 31Similar
Q2 11:34
2ND & 7
OWN 31
+1
47.7%
Trey Benson run for 1 yd to the FSU 32Similar
Q2 11:14
3RD & 7
OWN 32
0
47.2%
Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Johnny WilsonSimilar
Q2 10:42
4TH & 7
OWN 32
-3
46.5%
Alex Mastromanno punt for 43 yds , Aaron Anderson returns for a loss of 3 yards to the LSU 22 Aaron Anderson fumbled, recovered by FSU Azareye'h ThomasSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 7INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0051% → 51%
Q2 10:38
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-2
50.5%
Jordan Travis pass intercepted Duce Chestnut return for 2 yds to the LSU 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:5754% → 53%
Q2 10:32
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
46.1%
Jayden Daniels pass incomplete to Kyren LacySimilar
Q2 10:24
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+8
46.2%
Jayden Daniels run for 8 yds to the LSU 34Similar
Q2 9:50
3RD & 2
OWN 34
0
45.5%
Jayden Daniels pass incomplete to Brian Thomas Jr.Similar
Q2 9:35
4TH & 2
OWN 34
0
46.6%
Jay Bramblett punt for 65 yds, downed at the FSU 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:3848% → 46%
Q2 9:27
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+1
48.0%
Trey Benson run for 1 yd to the FSU 2Similar
Q2 8:44
2ND & 9
OWN 2
+5
48.2%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Keon Coleman for 5 yds to the FSU 7Similar
Q2 7:55
3RD & 4
OWN 7
0
46.2%
Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Keon ColemanSimilar
Q2 7:49
4TH & 4
OWN 7
0
45.6%
Alex Mastromanno punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Gregory Clayton Jr. at the LSU 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 10TD
5 plays · 51 yds · 1:3757% → 67%
Q2 7:39
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+40
42.6%
Jayden Daniels run for 40 yds to the FSU 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:17
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+8
41.3%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Mason Taylor for 8 yds to the FSU 3Similar
Q2 6:45
2ND & 2
OPP 3
+2
41.3%
Jayden Daniels run for 2 yds to the FSU 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
41.3%
Noah Cain run for no gain to the FSU 1Similar
Q2 6:02
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
33.4%
Noah Cain run for 1 yd for a TD (Damian Ramos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 11TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 4:5636% → 54%
Q2 5:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
36.0%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Keon Coleman for a loss of 4 yards to the FSU 21Similar
Q2 5:32
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+8
35.7%
Jordan Travis run for 8 yds to the FSU 29Similar
Q2 4:52
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+22
35.4%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Johnny Wilson for 22 yds to the LSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:33
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-5
38.6%
Florida State Penalty, False Start (Maurice Smith) to the FSU 46Similar
Q2 4:05
1ST & 15
OWN 46
0
36.6%
Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Jaheim BellSimilar
Q2 3:58
2ND & 15
OWN 46
+3
36.3%
Jordan Travis run for 3 yds to the FSU 49Similar
Q2 3:20
3RD & 12
OWN 49
+18
35.9%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Winston Wright Jr. for 18 yds to the LSU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:39
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+7
39.5%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Kyle Morlock for 7 yds to the LSU 26Similar
Q2 2:06
2ND & 3
OPP 26
+2
39.5%
Trey Benson run for 2 yds to the LSU 24Similar
Q2 1:35
3RD & 1
OPP 24
+3
38.1%
Jordan Travis run for 3 yds to the LSU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:01
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+21
53.8%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Keon Coleman for 21 yds for a TD (Ryan Fitzgerald KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 12END OF HALF
14 plays · 67 yds · 0:5654% → 61%
Q2 0:56
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+11
46.0%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Malik Nabers for 11 yds to the LSU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
45.9%
Jayden Daniels pass incomplete to Kyren LacySimilar
Q2 0:37
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
46.2%
Jayden Daniels pass incomplete to Malik NabersSimilar
Q2 0:30
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+35
47.3%
Josh Williams run for 35 yds to the FSU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:23
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+3
42.3%
Jayden Daniels run for 3 yds to the FSU 37Similar
Q2 0:17
2ND & 7
OPP 37
+18
42.3%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Brian Thomas Jr. for 18 yds to the FSU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:13
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
40.9%
Jayden Daniels pass incomplete to Malik NabersSimilar
Q2 0:09
2ND & 10
OPP 19
0
41.2%
Jayden Daniels pass incomplete to Malik NabersSimilar
Q2 0:04
3RD & 10
OPP 19
0
42.1%
Jayden Daniels pass incomplete to Josh WilliamsSimilar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 10
OPP 19
+36
39.5%
Damian Ramos 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 13FG
11 plays · 60 yds · 5:3044% → 53%
Q3 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
43.7%
Travis, Jordan pass incomplete to Wilson, Johnny, PENALTY LSU pass interference (Chestnut, Duce) 15 yards to the FLORIDAST40, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN FLORIDAST.Similar
Q3 14:43
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+8
46.3%
Lawrance Toafili run for 8 yds to the FSU 48Similar
Q3 14:20
2ND & 2
OWN 48
+4
46.5%
Lawrance Toafili run for 4 yds to the LSU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:41
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
47.0%
Trey Benson run for 3 yds to the LSU 45Similar
Q3 13:00
2ND & 7
OPP 45
+6
47.1%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Keon Coleman for 6 yds to the LSU 39Similar
Q3 12:12
3RD & 1
OPP 39
+17
46.4%
Deuce Spann pass complete to Johnny Wilson for 17 yds to the LSU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:24
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+3
48.4%
Trey Benson run for 3 yds to the LSU 19Similar
Q3 10:45
2ND & 7
OPP 19
-6
48.5%
Trey Benson run for a loss of 6 yards to the LSU 25Similar
Q3 10:02
3RD & 13
OPP 25
+10
44.7%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Johnny Wilson for 10 yds to the LSU 15Similar
Q3 9:19
4TH & 3
OPP 15
+33
52.8%
Ryan Fitzgerald 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 14PUNT
8 plays · 36 yds · 2:4152% → 52%
Q3 9:08
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+15
48.1%
Jayden Daniels run for 15 yds to the LSU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:47
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+9
47.3%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Malik Nabers for 9 yds to the LSU 41Similar
Q3 8:17
2ND & 1
OWN 41
+8
45.2%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Mason Taylor for 8 yds to the LSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:43
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
44.7%
Tre Bradford run for 4 yds to the FSU 47Similar
Q3 7:09
2ND & 6
OPP 47
0
44.6%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Malik Nabers for no gain to the FSU 47Similar
Q3 6:33
3RD & 6
OPP 47
0
45.2%
Jayden Daniels pass incomplete to Kyren LacySimilar
Q3 6:27
4TH & 6
OPP 47
0
47.9%
Jay Bramblett punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Keon Coleman at the FSU 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 15TD
7 plays · 87 yds · 3:4052% → 77%
Q3 6:22
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-4
51.8%
Rodney Hill run for a loss of 4 yards to the FSU 9Similar
Q3 5:54
2ND & 14
OWN 9
+41
51.5%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Keon Coleman for 41 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:09
1ST & 10
50
+7
56.7%
Rodney Hill run for 7 yds to the LSU 43Similar
Q3 4:32
2ND & 3
OPP 43
0
57.0%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Keon Coleman for no gain to the LSU 43Similar
Q3 3:59
3RD & 3
OPP 43
+1
56.5%
Lawrance Toafili run for 1 yd to the LSU 42Similar
Q3 3:05
4TH & 2
OPP 42
+41
54.5%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Lawrance Toafili for 41 yds to the LSU 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
77.0%
Jordan Travis run for 1 yd for a TD (Ryan Fitzgerald KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 16INT
8 plays · 25 yds · 2:4430% → 29%
Q3 2:34
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+13
69.8%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Malik Nabers for 13 yds to the LSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:09
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-4
68.8%
Jayden Daniels sacked by Dennis Briggs Jr. for a loss of 4 yards to the LSU 32Similar
Q3 1:34
2ND & 14
OWN 32
+3
72.3%
Josh Williams run for 3 yds to the LSU 35Similar
Q3 0:53
3RD & 11
OWN 35
+5
73.7%
Florida State Penalty, Defensive Offside (Patrick Payton) to the LSU 40Similar
Q3 0:25
3RD & 6
OWN 40
+8
71.7%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Mason Taylor for 8 yds to the LSU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
70.1%
Jayden Daniels pass incomplete to Brian Thomas Jr.Similar
Q4 14:50
2ND & 10
OWN 48
0
71.2%
Jayden Daniels pass intercepted Renardo Green return for no gain to the FSU 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 17TD
8 plays · 57 yds · 4:2082% → 94%
Q4 14:38
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+14
82.1%
Trey Benson run for 14 yds to the LSU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:13
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+4
83.0%
Trey Benson run for 4 yds to the LSU 39Similar
Q4 13:43
2ND & 6
OPP 39
-2
83.5%
Trey Benson run for a loss of 2 yards to the LSU 41Similar
Q4 12:52
3RD & 8
OPP 41
+13
83.3%
Jordan Travis run for 13 yds to the LSU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:15
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+6
85.1%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Keon Coleman for 6 yds to the LSU 22Similar
Q4 11:41
2ND & 4
OPP 22
+13
85.2%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Johnny Wilson for 13 yds to the LSU 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
86.1%
Lawrance Toafili run for 2 yds to the LSU 7Similar
Q4 10:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
94.2%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Keon Coleman for 7 yds for a TD (Ryan Fitzgerald KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 2:139% → 8%
Q4 10:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
91.1%
Tre Bradford run for a loss of 5 yards to the LSU 20Similar
Q4 9:45
2ND & 15
OWN 20
-7
91.3%
Jayden Daniels sacked by Joshua Farmer for a loss of 7 yards to the LSU 13Similar
Q4 8:48
3RD & 22
OWN 13
+8
92.0%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Brian Thomas Jr. for 8 yds to the LSU 21Similar
Q4 8:01
4TH & 14
OWN 21
0
92.4%
Jay Bramblett punt for 36 yds, downed at the FSU 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 19TD
3 plays · 57 yds · 0:5595% → 99%
Q4 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+13
95.4%
Trey Benson run for 13 yds to the LSU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:08
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
95.8%
Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Jaheim BellSimilar
Q4 7:00
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+44
98.9%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Jaheim Bell for 44 yds for a TD (Ryan Fitzgerald KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 20DOWNS
8 plays · 40 yds · 2:071% → 1%
Q4 6:54
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+21
99.0%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Malik Nabers for 21 yds to the LSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:36
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+9
99.1%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Brian Thomas Jr. for 9 yds to the LSU 45Similar
Q4 6:16
2ND & 1
OWN 45
+1
99.1%
Jayden Daniels run for 1 yd to the LSU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:53
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
99.2%
Jayden Daniels pass incomplete to Kyren LacySimilar
Q4 5:40
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+1
99.2%
Jayden Daniels run for 1 yd to the LSU 47Similar
Q4 5:23
3RD & 9
OWN 47
+5
99.2%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Brian Thomas Jr. for 5 yds to the FSU 48Similar
Q4 4:47
4TH & 4
OPP 48
+3
99.3%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Kyren Lacy for 3 yds to the FSU 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 21TD
6 plays · 54 yds · 3:1599% → 100%
Q4 4:41
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+21
99.2%
Rodney Hill run for 6 yds to the LSU 48 for a 1ST down LSU Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Harold Perkins Jr.) to the LSU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:09
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+17
99.2%
Rodney Hill run for 17 yds to the LSU 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:30
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+1
99.3%
Deuce Spann run for 1 yd to the LSU 15Similar
Q4 2:54
2ND & 9
OPP 15
+3
99.4%
Rodney Hill run for 3 yds to the LSU 12Similar
Q4 2:01
3RD & 6
OPP 12
+8
99.4%
Jordan Travis run for 8 yds to the LSU 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
99.9%
Jaheim Bell run for 4 yds for a TD (Ryan Fitzgerald KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 22TD
2 plays · 75 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
99.5%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Brian Thomas Jr. for 75 yds for a TD (Damian Ramos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 23END OF GAME
3 plays · -4 yds · 0:37100% → 100%
Q4 1:12
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-2
99.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the LSU 44Similar
Q4 0:35
2ND & 12
OPP 44
-2
99.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the LSU 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 2:42
Jordan Travis run for 1 yd for a TD (Ryan Fitzgerald KICK)
+22.5
TD · Q2 1:01
Jordan Travis pass complete to Keon Coleman for 21 yds for a TD (Ryan Fitzgerald KICK)
+15.7
TD · Q4 10:18
Jordan Travis pass complete to Keon Coleman for 7 yds for a TD (Ryan Fitzgerald KICK)
+8.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com