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USF

South Florida 24 at Western Kentucky 41

WKU
2023 · Week 1 · Sep 2, 2023 · Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium
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Win probability · WKU
modelWKU aheadUSF aheadconfidence bandkey playWKU scoreUSF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGFGTDTDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 5:53 · Andrew Stokes punt for 54 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the WKU 30
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+30.0+15.00−15.0−30.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 36Pregame prior+24.5Home team on offense−0.3Score differential−0.6Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 3:04: Austin Reed run for 16 yds for a TD (Lucas Carneiro KICK) — WKU win probability +9.9 pts (now 75%) (top driver: WKU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 13:01: Austin Reed pass complete to Dalvin Smith for 42 yds for a TD (Lucas Carneiro KICK) — WKU win probability +8.6 pts (now 81%) (top driver: WKU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 10:11: Byrum Brown run for 28 yds for a TD (John Cannon KICK) — USF win probability +14.7 pts (now 36%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 8:03: Austin Reed pass complete to Moussa Barry for 51 yds for a TD (Lucas Carneiro KICK) — WKU win probability +11.9 pts (now 84%) (top driver: WKU has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 3:19: Lucas Carneiro 42 yd FG GOOD — WKU win probability +4.9 pts (now 94%) (top driver: WKU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
WKU made the numbers' call on 10 of 10USF made the numbers' call on 11 of 12
  1. Q1 11:36USF 4th & 1 at WKU 6, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 20.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    20.2%
    69% to convert
    Field goal
    20.0%−0.2
    91% to make
    Punt
    19.5%−0.6
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:02WKU 4th & 9 at WKU 19, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.0%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.1%
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:53USF 4th & 11 at USF 16, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.2%−0.3
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.5%
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:00WKU 4th & 9 at WKU 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.4%−0.4
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.7%
    average punt
  5. Q1 3:29WKU 4th & 7 at WKU 31, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.7%−0.5
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.2%
    average punt
  6. Q1 3:29USF 4th & 2 at USF 43, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 26.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    26.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    26.3%−0.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 13:31USF 4th & 5 at WKU 18, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 30.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.0%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    30.2%
    79% to make
    Punt
    27.2%−3.0
    average punt
  8. Q2 11:15WKU 4th & 5 at USF 47, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 65.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    65.7%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    65.5%−0.1
    average punt
  9. Q2 9:47USF 4th & 17 at USF 40, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.2%−1.3
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.6%
    average punt
  10. Q2 7:37WKU 4th & 10 at USF 23, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 61.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.8%−0.6
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    61.4%
    70% to make
    Punt
    58.2%−3.2
    average punt
  11. Q2 6:56USF 4th & 11 at USF 17, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.8%−1.5
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.2%
    average punt
  12. Q2 6:56WKU 4th & 1 at USF 41, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 65.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    65.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    62.2%−3.3
    32% to make
    Punt
    62.6%−3.0
    average punt
  13. Q2 0:44USF 4th & 14 at USF 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.4%−2.5
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.9%
    average punt
  14. Q3 10:11USF 4th & 1 at WKU 28, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 22.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    21.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    19.5%−2.4
    60% to make
    Punt
    14.0%−7.9
    average punt
  15. Q3 6:55USF 4th & 2 at USF 33, down 7
    Close callPunted · 20.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  16. Q3 6:00WKU 4th & 7 at WKU 22, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.6%−1.5
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.1%
    average punt
  17. Q3 3:20USF 4th & 5 at WKU 38, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 21.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    22.4%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    21.0%−1.5
    38% to make
    Punt
    20.9%−1.5
    average punt
  18. Q3 1:21WKU 4th & 8 at USF 46, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.9%−0.3
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    83.4%−1.8
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    85.2%
    average punt
  19. Q4 15:00USF 4th & 1 at WKU 41, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 20.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    20.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    15.3%−5.6
    32% to make
    Punt
    16.0%−4.9
    average punt
  20. Q4 10:32WKU 4th & 9 at WKU 30, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.9%−1.2
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.1%
    average punt
  21. Q4 9:45USF 4th & 6 at USF 41, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.7%−0.4
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.1%
    average punt
  22. Q4 3:19WKU 4th & 6 at USF 24, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 92.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.1%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    92.2%
    68% to make
    Punt
    88.4%−3.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WKU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5USF made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 11:36USF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    20.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    20.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 7:03WKU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 4:28USF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    24.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    24.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 3:04WKU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 13:01WKU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 10:11USF Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    29.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    29.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 8:03WKU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 2:51WKU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.7%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USFDrive 1TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 3:2422% → 24%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
78.5%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 8 yds to the USF 33Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+2
78.5%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Weston Wolff for 2 yds to the USF 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
78.5%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 2 yds to the USF 37Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+6
78.5%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Naiem Simmons for 6 yds to the USF 43Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+14
78.5%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 14 yds to the WKU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+9
78.5%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 9 yds to the WKU 34Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 34
+4
78.5%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 4 yds to the WKU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
78.5%
Byrum Brown pass incomplete to Naiem SimmonsSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+15
78.5%
Byrum Brown run for 15 yds to the WKU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+1
78.5%
Michel Dukes run for 1 yd to the WKU 14Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 14
0
78.5%
Byrum Brown pass incomplete to Sean AtkinsSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 14
+8
78.5%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Khafre Brown for 8 yds to the WKU 6Similar
Q1 11:36
4TH & 1
OPP 6
+6
76.5%
Byrum Brown run for 6 yds for a TD (John Cannon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 1:2977% → 76%
Q1 11:31
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+4
76.6%
Austin Reed pass complete to Malachi Corley for 4 yds to the WKU 22Similar
Q1 11:31
2ND & 6
OWN 22
+2
76.6%
Davion Ervin-Poindexter run for 2 yds to the WKU 24Similar
Q1 11:31
3RD & 4
OWN 24
-5
76.6%
PENALTY WKU False Start (Dorsey,Wes) 5 yards from WKU24 to WKU19. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 11:31
3RD & 9
OWN 19
0
76.5%
Austin Reed pass incomplete to Malachi CorleySimilar
Q1 10:02
4TH & 9
OWN 19
0
75.5%
Tom Ellard punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Sean Atkins at the USF 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 3INT
4 plays · 14 yds · 1:1425% → 25%
Q1 10:02
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+23
75.5%
Michel Dukes run for 23 yds to the WKU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:02
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+1
75.3%
Michel Dukes run for 1 yd to the WKU 39Similar
Q1 10:02
2ND & 9
OPP 39
-10
75.3%
Shotgun Brown,Byrum rush middle for 0 yards to the WKU39 (Evans,JaQues) PENALTY USF Holding (Poleon,Joshua) 10 yards from WKU39 to WKU49. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:48
2ND & 19
OPP 49
0
74.6%
Byrum Brown pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 4TD
5 plays · 53 yds · 1:4575% → 77%
Q1 8:48
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+39
75.3%
Austin Reed pass complete to Malachi Corley for 39 yds to the USF 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:48
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+1
75.7%
Austin Reed pass complete to Malachi Corley for 1 yd to the USF 15Similar
Q1 8:48
2ND & 11
OPP 15
0
75.6%
Austin Reed pass incomplete to Craig Burt Jr.Similar
Q1 8:48
3RD & 11
OPP 15
+13
75.4%
Austin Reed pass complete to Malachi Corley for 13 yds to the USF 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
77.1%
Markese Stepp run for 2 yds for a TD (Lucas Carneiro KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · -1 yds · 1:0524% → 24%
Q1 6:58
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+3
76.1%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 3 yds to the USF 20Similar
Q1 6:58
2ND & 7
OWN 20
+1
76.2%
Byrum Brown run for 1 yd to the USF 21Similar
Q1 6:58
3RD & 6
OWN 21
0
76.4%
Byrum Brown pass incomplete to Sean AtkinsSimilar
Q1 6:58
4TH & 6
OWN 21
-5
76.6%
PENALTY USF False Start 5 yards from USF21 to USF16. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:53
4TH & 11
OWN 16
0
76.4%
Andrew Stokes punt for 54 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the WKU 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:5376% → 75%
Q1 5:53
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
76.0%
Davion Ervin-Poindexter run for 1 yd to the WKU 31Similar
Q1 5:53
2ND & 9
OWN 31
0
75.9%
Austin Reed pass incomplete to Malachi CorleySimilar
Q1 5:53
3RD & 9
OWN 31
0
75.6%
Austin Reed pass incomplete to Craig Burt Jr.Similar
Q1 5:00
4TH & 9
OWN 31
0
75.1%
Tom Ellard punt for 51 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 7TD
2 plays · 82 yds · 0:3224% → 28%
Q1 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-2
75.6%
Byrum Brown sacked by Kendrick Simpkins for a loss of 2 yards to the USF 16Similar
Q1 4:28
2ND & 12
OWN 16
+84
72.1%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Khafre Brown for 84 yds for a TD (John Cannon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:5472% → 71%
Q1 4:23
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
72.1%
Austin Reed pass incomplete to Markese SteppSimilar
Q1 4:23
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+3
71.9%
Markese Stepp run for 3 yds to the WKU 31Similar
Q1 4:23
3RD & 7
OWN 31
0
71.8%
Austin Reed pass incomplete to Dalvin SmithSimilar
Q1 3:29
4TH & 7
OWN 31
0
70.8%
Tom Ellard punt for 49 yds , Sean Atkins returns for no gain to the USF 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 9FG
14 plays · 62 yds · 4:5829% → 34%
Q1 3:29
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-5
71.4%
Byrum Brown sacked by Terrion Thompson for a loss of 5 yards to the USF 15Similar
Q1 3:29
2ND & 15
OWN 15
+20
71.5%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 20 yds to the USF 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:29
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
70.9%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 5 yds to the USF 40Similar
Q1 3:29
2ND & 5
OWN 40
0
70.5%
Byrum Brown pass incomplete to Kelley JoinerSimilar
Q1 3:29
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+3
70.6%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Michel Dukes for 3 yds to the USF 43Similar
Q1 3:29
4TH & 2
OWN 43
+4
70.9%
Michel Dukes run for 4 yds to the USF 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:29
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
70.4%
Michel Dukes run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 3:29
2ND & 7
50
+5
70.3%
Byrum Brown run for 5 yds to the WKU 45Similar
Q1 3:29
3RD & 2
OPP 45
+22
70.4%
Michel Dukes run for 22 yds to the WKU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-5
66.9%
PENALTY USF False Start (Littlejohn,Jayson) 5 yards from WKU23 to WKU28. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 15
OPP 28
0
67.0%
Byrum Brown run for no gain to the WKU 28Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 15
OPP 28
+2
67.2%
Michel Dukes run for 2 yds to the WKU 26Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 13
OPP 26
+8
67.5%
Michel Dukes run for 8 yds to the WKU 18Similar
Q2 13:31
4TH & 5
OPP 18
+37
66.0%
John Cannon 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 10DOWNS
11 plays · 34 yds · 2:0965% → 63%
Q2 13:24
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+2
65.0%
Elijah Young run for 2 yds to the WKU 21Similar
Q2 13:24
2ND & 8
OWN 21
+15
65.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun Reed,Austin pass incomplete short middle to Smith,Blue PENALTY USF Roughing The Passer (Harris,D.J.) 15 yards from WKU21 to WKU36, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:24
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
65.6%
Davion Ervin-Poindexter run for 1 yd to the WKU 37Similar
Q2 13:24
2ND & 9
OWN 37
-5
65.5%
PENALTY WKU False Start 5 yards from WKU37 to WKU32. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:24
2ND & 14
OWN 32
+16
65.0%
Austin Reed pass complete to Blue Smith for 16 yds to the WKU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:24
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
66.4%
Austin Reed pass incomplete to Moussa BarrySimilar
Q2 13:24
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+5
66.1%
Austin Reed pass complete to Jimmy Holiday for 5 yds to the USF 47Similar
Q2 13:24
3RD & 5
OPP 47
0
66.4%
Austin Reed pass incomplete to Jimmy HolidaySimilar
Q2 11:15
4TH & 5
OPP 47
0
63.2%
Austin Reed pass incomplete to Dalvin SmithSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · -7 yds · 1:2837% → 36%
Q2 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-10
62.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun Dukes,Michel rush right for 1 yard gain to the USF48 (Hodge,Rashion) PENALTY USF Holding 10 yards from USF47 to USF37. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:41
1ST & 20
OWN 37
+2
63.8%
K'Wan Powell run for 2 yds to the USF 39Similar
Q2 10:41
2ND & 18
OWN 39
+1
63.6%
K'Wan Powell run for 1 yd to the USF 40Similar
Q2 10:41
3RD & 17
OWN 40
0
63.8%
Byrum Brown pass incomplete to K'Wan PowellSimilar
Q2 9:47
4TH & 17
OWN 40
0
64.0%
Andrew Stokes punt for 39 yds, fair catch by K.D. Hutchinson at the WKU 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 12FG
13 plays · 56 yds · 2:1063% → 64%
Q2 9:47
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+16
62.5%
Austin Reed pass complete to Dalvin Smith for 16 yds to the WKU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:47
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
63.1%
Austin Reed pass incomplete to Craig Burt Jr.Similar
Q2 9:47
2ND & 10
OWN 37
0
63.0%
Austin Reed pass incomplete to Craig Burt Jr.Similar
Q2 9:47
3RD & 10
OWN 37
+17
62.1%
Austin Reed pass complete to Dalvin Smith for 17 yds to the USF 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:47
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
64.3%
Austin Reed pass incomplete to Craig Burt Jr.Similar
Q2 8:46
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+23
63.6%
K.D. Hutchinson run for 23 yds to the USF 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:46
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
64.9%
Austin Reed pass incomplete to Trevor BorlandSimilar
Q2 8:46
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+5
64.8%
Davion Ervin-Poindexter run for 5 yds to the USF 18Similar
Q2 7:56
3RD & 5
OPP 18
0
62.7%
Austin Reed pass incomplete to Davion Ervin-PoindexterSimilar
Q2 7:56
4TH & 5
OPP 18
-5
61.9%
PENALTY WKU False Start 5 yards from USF18 to USF23. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:37
4TH & 10
OPP 23
+41
64.2%
Lucas Carneiro 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:4037% → 36%
Q2 7:36
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
63.3%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Kelley Joiner for no gain to the USF 18Similar
Q2 7:36
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+1
63.4%
K'Wan Powell run for 1 yd to the USF 17Similar
Q2 7:36
3RD & 11
OWN 17
0
64.1%
Byrum Brown pass incomplete to Michael Brown-StephensSimilar
Q2 6:56
4TH & 11
OWN 17
0
64.2%
Andrew Stokes punt for 49 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 14TD
11 plays · 66 yds · 3:5263% → 75%
Q2 6:56
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
63.3%
Austin Reed pass incomplete to Blue SmithSimilar
Q2 6:56
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+5
63.3%
Markese Stepp run for 5 yds to the WKU 39Similar
Q2 6:56
3RD & 5
OWN 39
+11
63.9%
Austin Reed pass complete to Dalvin Smith for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:56
1ST & 10
50
-5
65.2%
PENALTY WKU False Start 5 yards from WKU50 to WKU45. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:56
1ST & 15
OWN 45
+6
63.7%
Austin Reed pass complete to Craig Burt Jr. for 6 yds to the USF 49Similar
Q2 6:56
2ND & 9
OPP 49
0
65.1%
Austin Reed pass incomplete to K.D. HutchinsonSimilar
Q2 6:56
3RD & 9
OPP 49
-5
63.9%
PENALTY WKU False Start (Holiday,Jimmy) 5 yards from USF49 to WKU46. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:56
3RD & 14
OWN 46
+13
62.7%
Austin Reed pass complete to K.D. Hutchinson for 13 yds to the USF 41Similar
Q2 6:56
4TH & 1
OPP 41
+2
64.5%
Austin Reed run for 2 yds to the USF 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:56
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+23
65.4%
Austin Reed pass complete to Markese Stepp for 23 yds to the USF 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:04
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
75.3%
Austin Reed run for 16 yds for a TD (Lucas Carneiro KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 15PUNT
10 plays · 8 yds · 2:2031% → 31%
Q2 3:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
69.0%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 4 yds to the USF 29Similar
Q2 3:04
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+2
68.5%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 2 yds to the USF 31Similar
Q2 3:04
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+6
68.9%
Byrum Brown run for 6 yds to the USF 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:04
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-15
68.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun Brown,Byrum pass incomplete short left to Wright,Nay'Quan PENALTY USF Personal Foul (Jennings,Donovan) 15 yards from USF37 to USF22. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:04
1ST & 25
OWN 22
+5
69.3%
Byrum Brown run for 5 yds to the USF 27Similar
Q2 3:04
2ND & 20
OWN 27
+4
69.5%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Sean Atkins for 4 yds to the USF 31Similar
Q2 1:42
3RD & 16
OWN 31
+2
69.2%
Byrum Brown run for 2 yds to the USF 33Similar
Q2 0:44
4TH & 14
OWN 33
0
69.5%
Andrew Stokes punt for 54 yds , K.D. Hutchinson returns for no gain to the WKU 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 16END OF HALF
1 play · 5 yds · 0:0069% → 69%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+5
69.2%
Elijah Young run for 5 yds to the WKU 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 17TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 1:5970% → 81%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
69.8%
PENALTY USF Offside (Thomas,Chris) 5 yards from WKU25 to WKU30. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 5
OWN 30
+3
71.1%
Davion Ervin-Poindexter run for 3 yds to the WKU 33Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+9
71.3%
Davion Ervin-Poindexter run for 9 yds to the WKU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
71.6%
Austin Reed pass complete to Davion Ervin-Poindexter for 2 yds to the WKU 40Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 40
+13
70.5%
Austin Reed pass complete to Blue Smith for 13 yds to the USF 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+5
72.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun Reed,Austin pass incomplete deep right to Smith,Blue PENALTY USF Offside 5 yards from USF47 to USF42. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 5
OPP 42
0
72.6%
Austin Reed pass incomplete to River HelmsSimilar
Q3 13:01
2ND & 5
OPP 42
+42
81.2%
Austin Reed pass complete to Dalvin Smith for 42 yds for a TD (Lucas Carneiro KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 18TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 2:5022% → 36%
Q3 13:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
78.4%
PENALTY USF False Start (Jennings,Donovan) 5 yards from USF25 to USF20. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 13:01
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+11
78.6%
Byrum Brown run for 11 yds to the USF 31Similar
Q3 13:01
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+11
77.6%
Byrum Brown run for 11 yds to the USF 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:01
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+7
77.2%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 7 yds to the USF 49Similar
Q3 13:01
2ND & 3
OWN 49
+14
76.0%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Sean Atkins for 14 yds to the WKU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:01
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+2
76.0%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 2 yds to the WKU 35Similar
Q3 13:01
2ND & 8
OPP 35
+6
74.9%
Byrum Brown run for 6 yds to the WKU 29Similar
Q3 13:01
3RD & 2
OPP 29
+1
75.8%
Byrum Brown run for 1 yd to the WKU 28Similar
Q3 10:11
4TH & 1
OPP 28
+28
63.6%
Byrum Brown run for 28 yds for a TD (John Cannon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 19TD
8 plays · 82 yds · 2:0269% → 84%
Q3 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+3
68.6%
Austin Reed pass complete to K.D. Hutchinson for 3 yds to the WKU 21Similar
Q3 10:05
2ND & 7
OWN 21
+14
68.5%
Austin Reed pass complete to Easton Messer for 14 yds to the WKU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+14
69.1%
Davion Ervin-Poindexter run for 14 yds to the WKU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
71.5%
Austin Reed pass complete to Easton Messer for 4 yds to the USF 47Similar
Q3 10:05
2ND & 6
OPP 47
+11
72.0%
Markese Stepp run for 11 yds to the USF 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:05
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-15
72.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun Reed,Austin pass incomplete short right to Smith,Dalvin PENALTY WKU Pass Interference 15 yards from USF36 to WKU49. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:03
1ST & 25
OWN 49
+51
83.9%
Austin Reed pass complete to Moussa Barry for 51 yds for a TD (Lucas Carneiro KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:0820% → 20%
Q3 8:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
79.8%
Byrum Brown pass incomplete to Michel DukesSimilar
Q3 8:03
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
79.9%
Byrum Brown pass incomplete to Khafre BrownSimilar
Q3 8:03
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+8
80.7%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Sean Atkins for 8 yds to the USF 33Similar
Q3 6:55
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
80.2%
Andrew Stokes punt for 48 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:5583% → 82%
Q3 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+3
83.0%
Elijah Young run for 3 yds to the WKU 22Similar
Q3 6:55
2ND & 7
OWN 22
0
82.9%
Austin Reed pass incomplete to Dalvin SmithSimilar
Q3 6:55
3RD & 7
OWN 22
0
82.2%
Austin Reed pass incomplete to Trevor BorlandSimilar
Q3 6:00
4TH & 7
OWN 22
+3
81.6%
Tom Ellard punt for 46 yds , Sean Atkins returns for 3 yds to the USF 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 22DOWNS
9 plays · 31 yds · 2:4021% → 21%
Q3 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
79.2%
Byrum Brown pass incomplete to Kelley JoinerSimilar
Q3 6:00
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+7
79.6%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Gunnar Greenwald for 7 yds to the USF 42Similar
Q3 6:00
3RD & 3
OWN 42
+3
77.9%
K'Wan Powell run for 3 yds to the USF 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
78.0%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 4 yds to the USF 49Similar
Q3 6:00
2ND & 6
OWN 49
+8
77.2%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 8 yds to the WKU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
77.0%
Byrum Brown run for 5 yds to the WKU 38Similar
Q3 6:00
2ND & 5
OPP 38
0
76.8%
Byrum Brown pass incomplete to Jaden AlexisSimilar
Q3 6:00
3RD & 5
OPP 38
0
77.4%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Nay'Quan Wright for no gain to the WKU 38Similar
Q3 3:20
4TH & 5
OPP 38
+4
79.1%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 4 yds to the WKU 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 17 yds · 1:5984% → 86%
Q3 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+15
83.6%
South Florida Penalty, UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Tramel Logan) to the USF 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:20
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
85.2%
Austin Reed pass complete to K.D. Hutchinson for no gain to the USF 48Similar
Q3 3:20
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+1
85.0%
Austin Reed pass complete to Blue Smith for 1 yd to the USF 49Similar
Q3 3:20
3RD & 11
OPP 49
+3
83.6%
Austin Reed pass complete to Blue Smith for 3 yds to the USF 46Similar
Q3 1:21
4TH & 8
OPP 46
0
85.6%
Tom Ellard punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Sean Atkins at the USF 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 24INT
14 plays · 87 yds · 3:5817% → 21%
Q3 1:21
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+2
82.6%
K'Wan Powell run for 2 yds to the USF 11Similar
Q3 1:21
2ND & 8
OWN 11
+2
82.1%
K'Wan Powell run for 2 yds to the USF 13Similar
Q3 1:21
3RD & 6
OWN 13
+37
83.0%
Byrum Brown run for 37 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
50
+1
78.8%
K'Wan Powell run for 1 yd to the WKU 49Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 49
0
79.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun Brown,Byrum rush left for 7 yards gain to the WKU42 (Hodge,Rashion), out of bounds PENALTY WKU Offside offsetting USF Holding offsetting. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 49
0
79.0%
Byrum Brown pass incomplete to Naiem SimmonsSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 49
+8
80.3%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Sean Atkins for 8 yds to the WKU 41Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 41
+2
80.4%
Byrum Brown run for 2 yds to the WKU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+5
78.8%
K'Wan Powell run for 5 yds to the WKU 34Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 34
0
77.0%
Byrum Brown pass incomplete to Sean AtkinsSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 34
+20
79.1%
K'Wan Powell run for 20 yds to the WKU 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+5
77.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun Powell,K'wan rush middle for 3 yards gain to the WKU11 (Simpkins,Kendrick) PENALTY WKU Offside 5 yards from WKU14 to WKU09. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 5
OPP 9
+5
77.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun Brown,Byrum pass incomplete short middle to Atkins,Sean broken up by Marshall,Virgil PENALTY WKU Roughing The Passer 5 yards from WKU09 to WKU04, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
79.2%
Byrum Brown pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 25PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:5188% → 87%
Q4 12:23
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+2
88.2%
Austin Reed pass complete to Dalvin Smith for 2 yds to the WKU 27Similar
Q4 12:23
2ND & 12
OWN 27
+5
87.8%
Austin Reed pass complete to Markese Stepp for 5 yds to the WKU 22Similar
Q4 12:23
3RD & 17
OWN 22
+8
87.0%
Austin Reed pass complete to Dalvin Smith for 8 yds to the WKU 30Similar
Q4 10:32
4TH & 9
OWN 30
+1
87.4%
Tom Ellard punt for 34 yds , Sean Atkins returns for 1 yd to the USF 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 26PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:4716% → 15%
Q4 10:32
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
83.9%
K'Wan Powell run for 2 yds to the USF 39Similar
Q4 10:32
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+2
83.4%
K'Wan Powell run for 2 yds to the USF 41Similar
Q4 9:57
3RD & 6
OWN 41
0
83.1%
Byrum Brown pass incomplete to Kelley JoinerSimilar
Q4 9:45
4TH & 6
OWN 41
0
84.6%
Andrew Stokes punt for 46 yds, fair catch by K.D. Hutchinson at the WKU 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 27FG
14 plays · 63 yds · 6:2687% → 94%
Q4 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+1
87.4%
L.T. Sanders run for 1 yd to the WKU 14Similar
Q4 9:45
2ND & 9
OWN 14
0
87.2%
Austin Reed pass incomplete to L.T. SandersSimilar
Q4 9:45
3RD & 9
OWN 14
+9
86.5%
Austin Reed run for 9 yds to the WKU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+3
87.7%
Austin Reed pass complete to Davion Ervin-Poindexter for 3 yds to the WKU 26Similar
Q4 9:45
2ND & 7
OWN 26
+5
87.7%
Austin Reed pass complete to Dalvin Smith for 5 yds to the WKU 31Similar
Q4 9:45
3RD & 2
OWN 31
+19
87.4%
Austin Reed pass complete to Blue Smith for 19 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:45
1ST & 10
50
+7
89.4%
Davion Ervin-Poindexter run for 7 yds to the USF 43Similar
Q4 9:45
2ND & 3
OPP 43
-5
89.7%
PENALTY WKU False Start (Smith,Blue) 5 yards from USF43 to USF48. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:45
2ND & 8
OPP 48
+1
89.6%
Davion Ervin-Poindexter run for 1 yd to the USF 47Similar
Q4 9:45
3RD & 7
OPP 47
+19
88.9%
Austin Reed pass complete to K.D. Hutchinson for 19 yds to the USF 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:45
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+2
89.9%
L.T. Sanders run for 2 yds to the USF 26Similar
Q4 9:45
2ND & 8
OPP 26
+2
89.9%
Davion Ervin-Poindexter run for 2 yds to the USF 24Similar
Q4 9:45
3RD & 6
OPP 24
0
89.4%
Austin Reed pass incomplete to Dalvin SmithSimilar
Q4 3:19
4TH & 6
OPP 24
+42
94.2%
Lucas Carneiro 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 28FUMBLE RETURN TD
3 plays · 2 yds · 0:286% → 2%
Q4 3:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
94.2%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 12 yds to the USF 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:51
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+27
97.9%
JaQues Evans 27 Yd Fumble Return (Lucas Carneiro Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 29END OF GAME
18 plays · 51 yds · 2:512% → 2%
Q4 2:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
98.0%
Byrum Brown run for 14 yds to the USF 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:51
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+9
97.9%
Byrum Brown run for 9 yds to the USF 48Similar
Q4 2:51
2ND & 1
OWN 48
+3
97.7%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 3 yds to the WKU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:51
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
97.8%
Byrum Brown pass incomplete to Naiem SimmonsSimilar
Q4 2:51
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+9
97.9%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Sean Atkins for 9 yds to the WKU 40Similar
Q4 2:51
3RD & 1
OPP 40
+7
97.6%
Byrum Brown run for 7 yds to the WKU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:51
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+3
97.5%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Khafre Brown for 3 yds to the WKU 30Similar
Q4 2:51
2ND & 7
OPP 30
0
97.4%
Byrum Brown pass incomplete to Khafre BrownSimilar
Q4 2:51
3RD & 7
OPP 30
-10
97.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun Brown,Byrum rush right for 2 yards gain to the WKU28, out of bounds at WKU28 PENALTY USF Holding (Jennings,Donovan) 10 yards from WKU30 to WKU40. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:51
3RD & 17
OPP 40
+18
98.0%
Byrum Brown run for 18 yds to the WKU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:51
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
97.4%
Byrum Brown pass incomplete to Weston WolffSimilar
Q4 2:51
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+10
97.6%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Nay'Quan Wright for 10 yds to the WKU 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:51
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
97.4%
Byrum Brown pass incomplete to Kelley JoinerSimilar
Q4 0:19
2ND & 10
OPP 12
-8
97.5%
Byrum Brown sacked by Kendrick Simpkins for a loss of 8 yards to the WKU 20Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 18
OPP 20
-4
98.2%
Byrum Brown sacked by Jayden Loving for a loss of 4 yards to the WKU 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 10:11
Byrum Brown run for 28 yds for a TD (John Cannon KICK)
-14.7
TD · Q3 8:03
Austin Reed pass complete to Moussa Barry for 51 yds for a TD (Lucas Carneiro KICK)
+11.9
TD · Q2 3:04
Austin Reed run for 16 yds for a TD (Lucas Carneiro KICK)
+9.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com