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BUF

Buffalo 17 at Wisconsin 38

WIS
2023 · Week 1 · Sep 2, 2023 · Camp Randall Stadium
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Win probability · WIS
modelWIS aheadBUF aheadconfidence bandkey playWIS scoreBUF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 11:42 · Alex McNulty 34 yd FG MISSED
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+43.5+21.80−21.8−43.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 50Pregame prior+33.9Home team on offense−1.3Score differential−1.4Garbage-time factor+0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.8Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 1:00: Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Chimere Dike for 29 yds for a TD (Nathanial Vakos KICK) — WIS win probability +4.4 pts (now 90%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 8:28: Chez Mellusi run for 89 yds for a TD (Nathanial Vakos KICK) — WIS win probability +7.2 pts (now 91%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 2:37: Braelon Allen run for 6 yds for a TD (Nathanial Vakos KICK) — WIS win probability +5.5 pts (now 97%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 7:43: Cole Snyder pass complete to Cole Harrity for 3 yds for a TD (Alex McNulty KICK) — BUF win probability +3.3 pts (now 4%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 6:38: Braelon Allen run for 22 yds for a TD (Nathanial Vakos KICK) — WIS win probability +2.0 pts (now 99%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
WIS made the numbers' call on 5 of 6BUF made the numbers' call on 11 of 14
  1. Q1 12:55WIS 4th & 11 at WIS 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.7%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:08BUF 4th & 4 at BUF 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.7%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.7%
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:10WIS 4th & 4 at WIS 43, tied
    Close callPunted · 89.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.6%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:09BUF 4th & 1 at WIS 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 12.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    12.0%−0.7
    34% to make
    Punt
    12.0%−0.6
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:42BUF 4th & 10 at WIS 16, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 13.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.8%−0.3
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    13.1%
    81% to make
    Punt
    11.6%−1.5
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:42WIS 4th & 8 at BUF 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.1%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.2%
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:29BUF 4th & 6 at BUF 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.3%−0.2
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.5%
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:42WIS 4th & 14 at WIS 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.6%−0.9
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.5%
    average punt
  9. Q2 3:08BUF 4th & 6 at BUF 17, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.3%−0.6
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.9%
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:07BUF 4th & 6 at WIS 35, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 13.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.0%−0.6
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    13.6%
    45% to make
    Punt
    12.6%−1.0
    average punt
  11. Q3 12:21BUF 4th & 2 at BUF 40, down 4
    Close callPunted · 16.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.6%−0.6
    average punt
  12. Q3 10:53WIS 4th & 6 at WIS 24, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.3%−0.6
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.9%
    average punt
  13. Q3 8:43BUF 4th & 18 at BUF 46, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.3%−1.7
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.0%
    average punt
  14. Q3 5:50BUF 4th & 8 at BUF 41, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.4%−0.6
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.0%
    average punt
  15. Q3 1:41BUF 4th & 25 at BUF 16, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.4%−1.4
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.8%
    average punt
  16. Q4 13:45WIS 4th & 5 at BUF 19, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 97.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.6%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    97.7%
    77% to make
    Punt
    95.6%−2.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 13:45BUF 4th & 6 at BUF 29, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 1.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.1%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.2%
    average punt
  18. Q4 9:35BUF 4th & 1 at WIS 40, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    0.6%−0.3
    34% to make
    Punt
    0.6%−0.4
    average punt
  19. Q4 6:38BUF 4th & 1 at WIS 42, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    0.5%−0.2
    30% to make
    Punt
    0.5%−0.2
    average punt
  20. Q4 3:43BUF 4th & 3 at WIS 44, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.6%−0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    0.7%
    27% to make
    Punt
    0.6%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WIS made the numbers' call on 5 of 5BUF made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q1 7:16WIS Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 5:07BUF Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    9.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    9.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 1:00WIS Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 8:28WIS Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 2:37WIS Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 7:43BUF Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    3.6%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    3.6%
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 6:38WIS Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
WISDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 14 yds · 2:0593% → 93%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
93.1%
Braelon Allen run for 9 yds to the WIS 34Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+6
93.1%
Braelon Allen run for 6 yds to the WIS 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
93.1%
Tanner Mordecai pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+2
93.1%
Tanner Mordecai run for 2 yds to the WIS 42Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 42
-3
93.1%
Tanner Mordecai sacked by Caleb Offord for a loss of 3 yards to the WIS 39Similar
Q1 12:55
4TH & 11
OWN 39
0
92.5%
Atticus Bertrams punt for 35 yds, downed at the BUFF 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:477% → 8%
Q1 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
92.6%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Jake Orlando for 5 yds to the BUFF 31Similar
Q1 12:55
2ND & 5
OWN 31
-3
92.5%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Boobie Curry for a loss of 3 yards to the BUFF 28Similar
Q1 12:55
3RD & 8
OWN 28
+4
92.6%
Cole Snyder run for 4 yds to the BUFF 32Similar
Q1 11:08
4TH & 4
OWN 32
0
92.1%
Anthony Venneri punt for 41 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 3TD
11 plays · 73 yds · 3:5292% → 92%
Q1 11:08
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+13
92.1%
Chez Mellusi run for 13 yds to the WIS 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:08
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
92.2%
Chez Mellusi run for 3 yds to the WIS 43Similar
Q1 11:08
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+7
92.2%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Bryson Green for 7 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:08
1ST & 10
50
+1
92.2%
Braelon Allen run for 1 yd to the BUFF 49Similar
Q1 11:08
2ND & 9
OPP 49
+11
92.2%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Will Pauling for 11 yds to the BUFF 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:08
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+4
92.3%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Braelon Allen for 4 yds to the BUFF 34Similar
Q1 11:08
2ND & 6
OPP 34
+13
92.3%
Braelon Allen run for 13 yds to the BUFF 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:08
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+14
92.3%
Chez Mellusi run for 14 yds to the BUFF 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
92.3%
Chez Mellusi run for 2 yds to the BUFF 5Similar
Q1 11:08
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
92.3%
Chez Mellusi run for 4 yds to the BUFF 1Similar
Q1 7:16
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
92.1%
Chez Mellusi run for 1 yd for a TD (Nathanial Vakos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 4TD
6 plays · 65 yds · 2:098% → 10%
Q1 7:16
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
91.9%
Mike Washington run for 5 yds to the BUFF 40Similar
Q1 6:21
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+1
91.5%
Mike Washington run for 1 yd to the BUFF 41Similar
Q1 6:21
3RD & 4
OWN 41
+51
91.6%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Darrell Harding Jr. for 51 yds to the WIS 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+1
91.3%
Mike Washington run for 1 yd to the WIS 7Similar
Q1 5:07
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
89.8%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Cole Harrity for 7 yds for a TD (Alex McNulty KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 2:5790% → 90%
Q1 5:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
90.4%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Skyler Bell for 6 yds to the WIS 31Similar
Q1 5:07
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+6
90.6%
Braelon Allen run for 6 yds to the WIS 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:07
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
90.5%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Braelon Allen for 2 yds to the WIS 39Similar
Q1 5:07
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+7
90.6%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Braelon Allen for 7 yds to the WIS 46Similar
Q1 5:07
3RD & 1
OWN 46
-3
90.7%
Braelon Allen run for a loss of 3 yards to the WIS 43Similar
Q1 2:10
4TH & 4
OWN 43
0
89.6%
Atticus Bertrams punt for 42 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 6DOWNS
10 plays · 45 yds · 4:0111% → 13%
Q1 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+9
89.2%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Marlyn Johnson for 9 yds to the BUFF 24Similar
Q1 2:10
2ND & 1
OWN 24
+5
89.0%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 5 yds to the BUFF 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
89.1%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Ron Cook Jr. for 3 yds to the BUFF 32Similar
Q1 2:10
2ND & 7
OWN 32
+7
89.0%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 7 yds to the BUFF 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+7
87.9%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Cameron Ball for 7 yds to the BUFF 46Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 46
+5
87.7%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 5 yds to the WIS 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
87.6%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Cameron Ball for 2 yds to the WIS 47Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 47
0
87.6%
Cole Snyder pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 47
+7
87.8%
Mike Washington run for 7 yds to the WIS 40Similar
Q2 13:09
4TH & 1
OPP 40
0
87.2%
Cole Snyder run for no gain to the WIS 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 7INT
3 plays · 6 yds · 0:3889% → 88%
Q2 13:09
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
88.7%
Tanner Mordecai pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:09
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+6
88.5%
Chez Mellusi run for 6 yds to the WIS 46Similar
Q2 12:31
3RD & 4
OWN 46
0
88.4%
Tanner Mordecai pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 8MISSED FG
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:4914% → 13%
Q2 12:31
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
86.1%
Mike Washington run for no gain to the WIS 16Similar
Q2 12:31
2ND & 10
OPP 16
0
86.1%
Cole Snyder pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:31
3RD & 10
OPP 16
0
86.5%
Cole Snyder pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:42
4TH & 10
OPP 16
+34
86.6%
Alex McNulty 34 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 9PUNT
8 plays · 33 yds · 3:0088% → 87%
Q2 11:42
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
87.6%
Braelon Allen run for 3 yds to the WIS 23Similar
Q2 11:42
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+4
87.6%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Bryson Green for 4 yds to the WIS 27Similar
Q2 11:42
3RD & 3
OWN 27
+13
87.5%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Will Pauling for 13 yds to the WIS 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:42
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+11
88.2%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Bryson Green for 11 yds to the BUFF 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:42
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
88.5%
Tanner Mordecai pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:42
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+5
88.4%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Braelon Allen for 5 yds to the BUFF 44Similar
Q2 11:42
3RD & 5
OPP 44
-5
88.4%
QB Keeper MORDECAI, Tanner rush to the right for a gain of 2 yards to the BUF42, End of Play. PENALTY Before the snap, WIS Delay Of Game on BOWDEN, Peter enforced 5 yards from the end of the play at the BUF42 to the BUF47. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 8:42
4TH & 8
OPP 47
0
86.5%
Atticus Bertrams punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Ron Cook Jr. at the BUFF 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 16 yds · 2:1314% → 16%
Q2 8:42
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+5
85.6%
Cole Snyder run for 5 yds to the BUFF 16Similar
Q2 8:42
2ND & 5
OWN 16
+7
85.5%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Zion Carter for 7 yds to the BUFF 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:42
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
85.5%
Cole Snyder pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:42
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+4
85.5%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Micah Woods for 4 yds to the BUFF 27Similar
Q2 8:42
3RD & 6
OWN 27
0
85.7%
Cole Snyder pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:29
4TH & 6
OWN 27
0
84.5%
Anthony Venneri punt for 54 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 15 yds · 1:4786% → 84%
Q2 6:29
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+19
85.5%
Chez Mellusi run for 19 yds to the WIS 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:29
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
86.4%
Chez Mellusi run for no gain to the WIS 43Similar
Q2 6:29
2ND & 10
OWN 43
-10
86.1%
MORDECAI, Tanner pass to the right complete for 2 yards to PAULING, Will caught at the WIS43 and advanced to the WIS45 (GRANT, Devin). PENALTY WIS Holding on NELSON, Jack enforced 10 yards from the WIS43 to the WIS33 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 6:29
2ND & 20
OWN 33
+6
85.4%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Will Pauling for 6 yds to the WIS 39Similar
Q2 6:29
3RD & 14
OWN 39
0
85.3%
Tanner Mordecai pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:42
4TH & 14
OWN 39
0
83.9%
Atticus Bertrams punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Ron Cook Jr. at the BUFF 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:3417% → 17%
Q2 4:42
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+5
82.9%
Mike Washington run for 5 yds to the BUFF 18Similar
Q2 4:42
2ND & 5
OWN 18
+4
82.8%
Mike Washington run for 4 yds to the BUFF 22Similar
Q2 4:42
3RD & 1
OWN 22
0
83.0%
Mike Washington run for no gain to the BUFF 22Similar
Q2 4:42
4TH & 1
OWN 22
-5
83.6%
Buffalo Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the BUFF 17Similar
Q2 3:08
4TH & 6
OWN 17
0
83.0%
Anthony Venneri punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Chimere Dike at the WIS 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 13TD
6 plays · 55 yds · 2:0885% → 90%
Q2 3:08
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
85.1%
Braelon Allen run for 3 yds to the WIS 48Similar
Q2 3:08
2ND & 7
OWN 48
+4
85.2%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Skyler Bell for 4 yds to the BUFF 48Similar
Q2 3:08
3RD & 3
OPP 48
+3
85.2%
Tanner Mordecai run for 3 yds to the BUFF 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:08
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
85.5%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Skyler Bell for 4 yds to the BUFF 41Similar
Q2 3:08
2ND & 6
OPP 41
+12
85.5%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Tucker Ashcraft for 12 yds to the BUFF 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+29
89.9%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Chimere Dike for 29 yds for a TD (Nathanial Vakos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 14FG
11 plays · 40 yds · 0:5312% → 15%
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
88.3%
Buffalo Penalty, Delay Of Game (TEAM) to the BUFF 20Similar
Q2 1:00
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+11
88.4%
Mike Washington run for 11 yds to the BUFF 31Similar
Q2 1:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+13
87.9%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Jake Orlando for 13 yds to the BUFF 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:00
3RD & 6
OPP 35
0
86.5%
Cole Snyder pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:23
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+17
86.7%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Cole Harrity for 17 yds to the WIS 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:23
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
85.7%
Cole Snyder pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:16
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+4
86.7%
Mike Washington run for 4 yds to the WIS 35Similar
Q2 0:07
4TH & 6
OPP 35
+53
85.3%
Alex McNulty 53 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 15END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0085% → 85%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
85.3%
[NH] Kneel down by MORDECAI, Tanner at WIS24 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 19 yds · 2:3316% → 17%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+11
84.2%
Mike Washington run for 11 yds to the BUFF 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
83.8%
Mike Washington run for 3 yds to the BUFF 35Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 7
OWN 35
+5
83.6%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Cole Harrity for 5 yds to the BUFF 40Similar
Q3 14:54
3RD & 2
OWN 40
0
82.9%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Mike Washington for no gain to the BUFF 40Similar
Q3 12:21
4TH & 2
OWN 40
0
83.0%
Anthony Venneri punt for 60 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:2883% → 83%
Q3 12:21
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
83.3%
Braelon Allen run for 1 yd to the WIS 21Similar
Q3 12:21
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+5
83.2%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Will Pauling for 5 yds to the WIS 26Similar
Q3 12:21
3RD & 4
OWN 26
-2
82.8%
Tanner Mordecai run for a loss of 2 yards to the WIS 24Similar
Q3 10:53
4TH & 6
OWN 24
0
83.1%
Atticus Bertrams punt for 33 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 18PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 2:1018% → 16%
Q3 10:53
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
82.1%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 5 yds to the BUFF 48Similar
Q3 10:53
2ND & 5
OWN 48
+6
81.4%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Ron Cook Jr. for 6 yds to the WIS 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:53
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+5
81.1%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Ron Cook Jr. for 5 yds to the WIS 41Similar
Q3 10:53
2ND & 5
OPP 41
-15
80.9%
Buffalo Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the BUFF 46Similar
Q3 10:53
3RD & 18
OWN 46
0
83.6%
Cole Snyder pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:43
4TH & 18
OWN 46
0
83.7%
Anthony Venneri punt for 43 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 19TD
1 play · 89 yds · 0:0091% → 91%
Q3 8:28
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+89
90.9%
Chez Mellusi run for 89 yds for a TD (Nathanial Vakos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · 16 yds · 2:3810% → 10%
Q3 8:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
90.1%
Cole Snyder pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:28
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+14
90.1%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 14 yds to the BUFF 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:28
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
89.4%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Marlyn Johnson for 6 yds to the BUFF 45Similar
Q3 8:28
2ND & 4
OWN 45
+2
89.1%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 2 yds to the BUFF 47Similar
Q3 8:28
3RD & 2
OWN 47
-6
89.2%
Ron Cook Jr. run for a loss of 6 yards to the BUFF 41Similar
Q3 5:50
4TH & 8
OWN 41
0
90.4%
Anthony Venneri punt for 56 yds, downed at the WIS 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 21TD
8 plays · 97 yds · 3:1391% → 97%
Q3 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+3
90.6%
Braelon Allen run for 3 yds to the WIS 6Similar
Q3 5:50
2ND & 7
OWN 6
+7
90.6%
Braelon Allen run for 7 yds to the WIS 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+3
90.7%
Braelon Allen run for 3 yds to the WIS 16Similar
Q3 5:50
2ND & 7
OWN 16
+15
90.8%
Buffalo Penalty, Personal Foul (Clevester Hines III) to the WIS 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+20
91.2%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Will Pauling for 20 yds to the BUFF 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:50
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
91.6%
Tanner Mordecai pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:50
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+37
91.6%
Braelon Allen run for 37 yds to the BUFF 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
97.1%
Braelon Allen run for 6 yds for a TD (Nathanial Vakos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · -15 yds · 0:504% → 4%
Q3 2:31
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-15
96.0%
Buffalo Penalty, Personal Foul (TEAM) to the BUFF 16Similar
Q3 2:31
1ST & 25
OWN 16
0
96.3%
Cole Snyder pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:31
2ND & 25
OWN 16
0
96.3%
Cole Snyder pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:31
3RD & 25
OWN 16
0
96.3%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Ron Cook Jr. for no gain to the BUFF 16Similar
Q3 1:41
4TH & 25
OWN 16
0
96.4%
Anthony Venneri punt for 46 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 23FG
6 plays · 31 yds · 2:5697% → 99%
Q3 1:41
1ST & 10
50
+2
97.1%
Chez Mellusi run for 2 yds to the BUFF 48Similar
Q3 1:41
2ND & 8
OPP 48
+24
97.1%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Tucker Ashcraft for 24 yds to the BUFF 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+4
97.6%
Chez Mellusi run for 4 yds to the BUFF 20Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 20
0
97.6%
Chez Mellusi run for no gain to the BUFF 20Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 20
+1
97.6%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Bryson Green for 1 yd to the BUFF 19Similar
Q4 13:45
4TH & 5
OPP 19
+37
98.8%
Nathanial Vakos 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 24DOWNS
9 plays · 35 yds · 4:101% → 1%
Q4 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
98.9%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Boobie Curry for a loss of 3 yards to the BUFF 22Similar
Q4 13:45
2ND & 13
OWN 22
0
99.0%
Cole Snyder pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:45
3RD & 13
OWN 22
+7
99.0%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Marlyn Johnson for 7 yds to the BUFF 29Similar
Q4 13:45
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+7
99.0%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Marlyn Johnson for 7 yds to the BUFF 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+15
98.9%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Cole Harrity for 15 yds to the WIS 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:45
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+8
98.9%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 8 yds to the WIS 41Similar
Q4 13:45
2ND & 2
OPP 41
+1
98.8%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 1 yd to the WIS 40Similar
Q4 13:45
3RD & 1
OPP 40
0
98.8%
run for no gain to the WIS 40Similar
Q4 9:35
4TH & 1
OPP 40
0
99.1%
Cole Snyder run for no gain to the WIS 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 25INT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:1299% → 99%
Q4 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
99.1%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Braelon Allen for 2 yds to the WIS 42Similar
Q4 8:32
2ND & 8
OWN 42
-1
99.2%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Braelon Allen for a loss of 1 yard to the WIS 41Similar
Q4 8:23
3RD & 9
OWN 41
0
99.2%
Tanner Mordecai pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 26TD
3 plays · 11 yds · 0:401% → 4%
Q4 8:23
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
99.0%
Cole Snyder pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:23
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+8
99.0%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 8 yds to the WIS 3Similar
Q4 7:43
3RD & 2
OPP 3
+3
95.7%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Cole Harrity for 3 yds for a TD (Alex McNulty KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 27TD
3 plays · 46 yds · 1:0597% → 99%
Q4 7:43
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+16
97.3%
Braelon Allen run for 16 yds to the BUFF 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:43
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+8
97.4%
Braelon Allen run for 8 yds to the BUFF 22Similar
Q4 6:38
2ND & 2
OPP 22
+22
99.4%
Braelon Allen run for 22 yds for a TD (Nathanial Vakos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 28DOWNS
7 plays · 31 yds · 2:551% → 1%
Q4 6:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
99.4%
Jacqez Barksdale run for 3 yds to the BUFF 28Similar
Q4 6:38
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+15
99.4%
Wisconsin Penalty, Targeting on TURNER, Jordan enforced (Jordan Turner) to the BUFF 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:38
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+2
99.4%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Jacqez Barksdale for 2 yds to the WIS 49Similar
Q4 6:38
2ND & 8
OPP 49
0
99.4%
Cole Snyder pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:38
3RD & 8
OPP 49
+7
99.4%
Jacqez Barksdale run for 7 yds to the WIS 42Similar
Q4 6:38
4TH & 1
OPP 42
-2
99.4%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Nik McMillan for 13 yds to the WIS 29 Buffalo Penalty, Personal Foul (Marlyn Johnson) to the WIS 44Similar
Q4 3:43
4TH & 3
OPP 44
0
99.5%
Cole Snyder pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 29END OF GAME
6 plays · 22 yds · 3:43100% → 100%
Q4 3:43
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+4
99.5%
Jackson Acker run for 4 yds to the WIS 48Similar
Q4 3:43
2ND & 6
OWN 48
-5
99.5%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Tanner Mordecai for a loss of 5 yards to the WIS 43Similar
Q4 3:43
3RD & 11
OWN 43
+12
99.5%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Keontez Lewis for 12 yds to the BUFF 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:43
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+10
99.5%
Jackson Acker run for 10 yds to the BUFF 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:43
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+1
99.5%
Jackson Acker run for 1 yd to the BUFF 34Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 9
OPP 34
0
99.7%
Jackson Acker run for no gain to the BUFF 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 8:28
Chez Mellusi run for 89 yds for a TD (Nathanial Vakos KICK)
+7.2
TD · Q3 2:37
Braelon Allen run for 6 yds for a TD (Nathanial Vakos KICK)
+5.5
TD · Q2 1:00
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Chimere Dike for 29 yds for a TD (Nathanial Vakos KICK)
+4.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com