Try the model
UVA

Virginia 13 at Tennessee 49

TENN
2023 · Week 1 · Sep 2, 2023 · Nissan Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · TENN
modelTENN aheadUVA aheadconfidence bandkey playTENN scoreUVA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDFGEnd of GameTD+0.1TENN 96.2%Joe Milton III pass complete to DylanSampson for 9 yds for a TD (CharlesCampbell KICK)AWAY 0 - HOME 7 · Q1 12:05
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 12:05 · Joe Milton III pass complete to Dylan Sampson for 9 yds for a TD (Charles Campbell KICK)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+46.5+23.30−23.3−46.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 9Pregame prior+45.5Home team on offense+0.7Score differential+0.1Blowout margin−0.1Garbage-time factor+0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 4:41: Dylan Sampson run for 3 yds for a TD (Charles Campbell KICK) — TENN win probability +1.9 pts (now 96%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 1:42: Will Bettridge 30 yd FG GOOD — UVA win probability +0.9 pts (now 6%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:06: Joe Milton III run for 1 yd for a TD (Charles Campbell KICK) — TENN win probability +1.7 pts (now 96%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 10:52: Joe Milton III run for 1 yd for a TD (Charles Campbell KICK) — TENN win probability +1.8 pts (now 99%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 3:05: Perris Jones run for 17 yds for a TD (Will Bettridge KICK) — UVA win probability +0.6 pts (now 1%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TENN made the numbers' call on 6 of 8UVA made the numbers' call on 10 of 12
  1. Q1 12:05TENN 4th & 5 at UVA 9, tied
    Close callWent for it · 95.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    94.9%−<0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    95.0%
    89% to make
    Punt
    94.5%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:09UVA 4th & 5 at UVA 30, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.0%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.0%
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:58TENN 4th & 1 at TENN 29, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 94.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    94.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    94.8%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:26TENN 4th & 7 at TENN 23, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.0%−0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.1%
    average punt
  5. Q1 3:47UVA 4th & 22 at UVA 48, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.9%−0.2
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.1%
    average punt
  6. Q1 1:26TENN 4th & 14 at UVA 44, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.2%−0.2
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    93.2%−0.1
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    93.3%
    average punt
  7. Q1 0:00UVA 4th & 19 at UVA 11, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.4%−0.4
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.8%
    average punt
  8. Q2 12:32UVA 4th & 10 at UVA 31, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.0%−0.3
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.3%
    average punt
  9. Q2 11:37TENN 4th & 10 at TENN 19, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.9%−0.3
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.1%
    average punt
  10. Q2 9:33UVA 4th & 7 at TENN 43, down 7
    Close callPunted · 8.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.1%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    7.7%−0.3
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    8.0%−0.1
    average punt
  11. Q2 6:42TENN 4th & 1 at UVA 23, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 91.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    91.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    91.3%−0.5
    70% to make
    Punt
    89.9%−1.9
    average punt
  12. Q2 1:42UVA 4th & 5 at TENN 13, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 6.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.6%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    6.7%
    85% to make
    Punt
    5.2%−1.4
    average punt
  13. Q3 14:02UVA 4th & 15 at UVA 30, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.9%−0.7
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.6%
    average punt
  14. Q3 9:51UVA 4th & 1 at UVA 34, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.2%−0.2
    average punt
  15. Q3 2:17TENN 4th & 4 at TENN 31, up 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.5%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.6%
    average punt
  16. Q3 0:39UVA 4th & 6 at UVA 32, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.6%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.7%
    average punt
  17. Q4 12:46UVA 4th & 14 at UVA 17, down 32
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−0.1
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  18. Q4 6:19UVA 4th & 4 at TENN 45, down 39
    Close callPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    0.0%−0.1
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    0.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  19. Q4 4:36TENN 4th & 1 at TENN 19, up 39
    Close callPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    100.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%−0.1
    average punt
  20. Q4 0:39UVA 4th & 7 at TENN 22, down 39
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    0.0%
    72% to make
    Punt
    0.0%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TENN made the numbers' call on 7 of 7UVA made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 12:05TENN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 4:41TENN Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:06TENN Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 10:52TENN Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 7:23TENN Touchdown, up 31 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 3:05UVA Touchdown, down 26 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 13:36TENN Touchdown, up 31 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 11:06TENN Touchdown, up 38 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TENNDrive 1TD
9 plays · 62 yds · 2:3597% → 96%
Q1 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+7
96.5%
Jaylen Wright run for 7 yds to the TENN 45Similar
Q1 14:20
2ND & 3
OWN 45
+6
96.4%
Joe Milton III pass complete to Jaylen Wright for 6 yds to the UVA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:05
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+21
96.4%
Jaylen Wright run for 21 yds to the UVA 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:45
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+14
96.4%
Jaylen Wright run for 14 yds to the UVA 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:14
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+2
96.3%
Jaylen Wright run for 2 yds to the UVA 12Similar
Q1 12:34
2ND & 8
OPP 12
+2
96.2%
Joe Milton III run for 2 yds to the UVA 10Similar
Q1 12:20
3RD & 6
OPP 10
+1
96.1%
Joe Milton III pass complete to Squirrel White for 1 yd to the UVA 9Similar
Q1 12:05
4TH & 5
OPP 9
+9
96.2%
Joe Milton III pass complete to Dylan Sampson for 9 yds for a TD (Charles Campbell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:514% → 4%
Q1 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
96.2%
Tony Muskett pass incomplete to Malik WashingtonSimilar
Q1 11:55
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
96.2%
Tony Muskett pass incomplete to Malachi FieldsSimilar
Q1 11:46
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+5
96.2%
Tony Muskett pass complete to Malik Washington for 5 yds to the UVA 30Similar
Q1 11:09
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
96.1%
Daniel Sparks punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Dee Williams at the TENN 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 3DOWNS
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:5896% → 96%
Q1 10:56
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
96.1%
Joe Milton III pass complete to Jabari Small for 3 yds to the TENN 23Similar
Q1 10:31
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+2
96.0%
Jabari Small run for 2 yds to the TENN 25Similar
Q1 10:09
3RD & 5
OWN 25
+4
96.0%
Joe Milton III pass complete to Jabari Small for 4 yds to the TENN 29Similar
Q1 9:58
4TH & 1
OWN 29
0
95.9%
Jabari Small run for no gain to the TENN 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 4MISSED FG
7 plays · 18 yds · 3:304% → 5%
Q1 9:41
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+1
95.7%
Tony Muskett pass complete to Malik Washington for 1 yd to the TENN 28Similar
Q1 9:10
2ND & 9
OPP 28
0
95.7%
Perris Jones run for no gain to the TENN 28Similar
Q1 8:35
3RD & 9
OPP 28
+19
95.6%
Tony Muskett pass complete to Malachi Fields for 19 yds to the TENN 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
95.5%
Mike Hollins run for 1 yd to the TENN 8Similar
Q1 7:33
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
-3
95.4%
Mike Hollins run for a loss of 3 yards to the TENN 11Similar
Q1 6:35
3RD & GOAL
OPP 11
0
95.3%
Tony Muskett run for no gain to the TENN 11Similar
Q1 6:11
4TH & 0
OPP 11
+28
95.3%
Will Bettridge 28 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:3795% → 95%
Q1 6:03
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
95.4%
Joe Milton III pass incomplete to Ramel KeytonSimilar
Q1 5:47
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+3
95.4%
Joe Milton III run for 3 yds to the TENN 23Similar
Q1 5:34
3RD & 7
OWN 23
0
95.3%
Joe Milton III pass incomplete to Bru McCoySimilar
Q1 5:26
4TH & 7
OWN 23
0
95.2%
Jackson Ross punt for 17 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TENN 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 6PUNT
5 plays · -12 yds · 1:355% → 5%
Q1 5:22
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
95.1%
Tony Muskett pass incomplete to Malik WashingtonSimilar
Q1 5:07
2ND & 10
OPP 40
-5
95.0%
Tony Muskett run for a loss of 5 yards to the TENN 45Similar
Q1 4:00
3RD & 15
OPP 45
-7
95.0%
Tony Muskett sacked by James Pearce Jr. for a loss of 7 yards to the UVA 48Similar
Q1 3:47
4TH & 22
OWN 48
0
95.1%
Daniel Sparks punt for 27 yds, fair catch by Dee Williams at the TENN 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 7PUNT
8 plays · 31 yds · 2:0695% → 95%
Q1 3:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
95.1%
Joe Milton III pass complete to Ramel Keyton for 11 yds to the TENN 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:14
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
95.2%
Joe Milton III pass complete to Dont'e Thornton Jr. for 7 yds to the TENN 43Similar
Q1 2:52
2ND & 3
OWN 43
+17
95.2%
Joe Milton III run for 17 yds to the UVA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:30
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+8
95.1%
Jaylen Wright run for 8 yds to the UVA 32Similar
Q1 2:15
2ND & 2
OPP 32
0
95.1%
Joe Milton III pass incomplete to Dont'e Thornton Jr.Similar
Q1 2:15
3RD & 2
OPP 32
-5
95.1%
Tennessee Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the UVA 37Similar
Q1 1:43
3RD & 7
OPP 37
-7
95.0%
Joe Milton III sacked by Olasunkonmi Agunloye for a loss of 7 yards to the UVA 44Similar
Q1 1:26
4TH & 14
OPP 44
0
94.6%
Jackson Ross punt for 44 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 8FUMBLE
4 plays · -9 yds · 1:185% → 5%
Q1 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-3
94.7%
Tony Muskett run for a loss of 3 yards to the UVA 17Similar
Q1 0:47
2ND & 13
OWN 17
0
94.6%
Tony Muskett pass incomplete to JR WilsonSimilar
Q1 0:15
3RD & 13
OWN 17
-6
94.6%
Tony Muskett sacked by James Pearce Jr. for a loss of 6 yards to the UVA 11Similar
Q1 0:00
4TH & 19
OWN 11
+19
94.7%
Daniel Sparks punt for 39 yds , Dee Williams returns for 19 yds to the UVA 31 Dee Williams fumbled, recovered by UVA Olasunkonmi AgunloyeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 2:056% → 6%
Q2 14:37
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
94.3%
Kobe Pace run for 5 yds to the UVA 36Similar
Q2 14:25
2ND & 5
OWN 36
+1
94.1%
Kobe Pace run for 1 yd to the UVA 37Similar
Q2 13:40
3RD & 4
OWN 37
-5
94.1%
Virginia Penalty, False Start (Sackett Wood Jr.) to the UVA 32Similar
Q2 13:30
3RD & 9
OWN 32
-1
94.3%
Tony Muskett pass complete to Malachi Fields for a loss of 1 yard to the UVA 31Similar
Q2 12:32
4TH & 10
OWN 31
0
94.2%
Daniel Sparks punt for 62 yds, downed at the TENN 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 12 yds · 0:4594% → 94%
Q2 12:22
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+5
94.0%
Jabari Small run for 5 yds to the TENN 12Similar
Q2 12:05
2ND & 5
OWN 12
+7
94.0%
Jabari Small run for 7 yds to the TENN 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
94.0%
Joe Milton III pass incomplete to Squirrel WhiteSimilar
Q2 11:51
2ND & 10
OWN 19
0
93.9%
Joe Milton III pass incomplete to Bru McCoySimilar
Q2 11:45
3RD & 10
OWN 19
0
93.8%
Joe Milton III pass incomplete to Ramel KeytonSimilar
Q2 11:37
4TH & 10
OWN 19
0
93.6%
Jackson Ross punt for 27 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TENN 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:447% → 7%
Q2 11:17
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
93.3%
Tony Muskett run for 3 yds to the TENN 43Similar
Q2 10:53
2ND & 7
OPP 43
+5
93.2%
Perris Jones run for 5 yds to the TENN 38Similar
Q2 10:28
3RD & 2
OPP 38
0
93.1%
Mike Hollins run for no gain to the TENN 38Similar
Q2 9:52
4TH & 2
OPP 38
-5
93.3%
Virginia Penalty, False Start (Perris Jones) to the TENN 43Similar
Q2 9:33
4TH & 7
OPP 43
0
93.4%
Daniel Sparks punt for 33 yds, downed at the TENN 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 12TD
15 plays · 90 yds · 4:3494% → 96%
Q2 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+13
93.5%
Jabari Small run for 13 yds to the TENN 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+16
93.5%
Joe Milton III pass complete to McCallan Castles for 16 yds to the TENN 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-5
93.7%
Tennessee Penalty, False Start (Ramel Keyton) to the TENN 34Similar
Q2 8:30
1ST & 15
OWN 34
-10
93.4%
Tennessee Penalty, Offensive Holding (John Campbell Jr.) to the TENN 24Similar
Q2 8:00
1ST & 25
OWN 24
+3
93.4%
Joe Milton III run for 3 yds to the TENN 27Similar
Q2 7:50
2ND & 22
OWN 27
+41
93.4%
Joe Milton III pass complete to Ramel Keyton for 41 yds to the UVA 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:33
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
94.0%
Joe Milton III pass incomplete to Bru McCoySimilar
Q2 7:20
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+3
93.9%
Jabari Small run for 3 yds to the UVA 29Similar
Q2 7:00
3RD & 7
OPP 29
+6
93.7%
Joe Milton III pass complete to Jabari Small for 6 yds to the UVA 23Similar
Q2 6:42
4TH & 1
OPP 23
+2
93.4%
Jabari Small run for 2 yds to the UVA 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:30
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+5
93.8%
Dylan Sampson run for 5 yds to the UVA 16Similar
Q2 6:00
2ND & 5
OPP 16
0
93.7%
Joe Milton III pass incomplete to McCallan CastlesSimilar
Q2 5:32
3RD & 5
OPP 16
+9
93.4%
Joe Milton III pass complete to Squirrel White for 9 yds to the UVA 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
93.6%
Joe Milton III run for 4 yds to the UVA 3Similar
Q2 4:41
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
95.5%
Dylan Sampson run for 3 yds for a TD (Charles Campbell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 13FG
9 plays · 52 yds · 2:485% → 6%
Q2 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+30
94.8%
Tony Muskett pass complete to Malachi Fields for 30 yds to the TENN 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+17
94.2%
Tony Muskett pass complete to Malik Washington for 17 yds to the TENN 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:35
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-5
94.1%
Mike Hollins run for a loss of 5 yards to the TENN 23Similar
Q2 3:13
2ND & 15
OPP 23
+2
94.5%
Tony Muskett pass complete to Mike Hollins for 2 yds to the TENN 21Similar
Q2 2:21
3RD & 13
OPP 21
+8
94.8%
Tony Muskett run for 8 yds to the TENN 13Similar
Q2 1:42
4TH & 5
OPP 13
+30
93.9%
Will Bettridge 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 14TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 1:2894% → 96%
Q2 1:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
94.3%
Jaylen Wright run for 12 yds to the TENN 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+9
94.4%
Joe Milton III run for 9 yds to the TENN 46Similar
Q2 1:05
2ND & 1
OWN 46
+14
94.7%
Joe Milton III pass complete to Ramel Keyton for 14 yds to the UVA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:59
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+13
94.7%
Jaylen Wright run for 13 yds to the UVA 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:48
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+7
94.9%
Joe Milton III pass complete to Bru McCoy for 7 yds to the UVA 20Similar
Q2 0:39
2ND & 3
OPP 20
+3
94.8%
Jaylen Wright run for 3 yds to the UVA 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:22
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+9
94.8%
Jaylen Wright run for 9 yds to the UVA 8Similar
Q2 0:17
2ND & 1
OPP 8
+7
94.7%
Jabari Small run for 7 yds to the UVA 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
96.4%
Joe Milton III run for 1 yd for a TD (Charles Campbell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 15END OF HALF
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
97.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the UVA 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 16PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 0:534% → 4%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
95.8%
Tony Muskett pass incomplete to Malachi FieldsSimilar
Q3 14:50
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
96.0%
Tony Muskett pass incomplete to Kobe PaceSimilar
Q3 14:40
3RD & 10
OWN 35
-5
96.1%
Tony Muskett sacked by Tyler Baron for a loss of 5 yards to the UVA 30Similar
Q3 14:02
4TH & 15
OWN 30
0
96.1%
Daniel Sparks punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Dee Williams at the TENN 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 17TD
10 plays · 77 yds · 2:5997% → 99%
Q3 13:51
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
96.8%
Joe Milton III pass complete to Jaylen Wright for 2 yds to the TENN 25Similar
Q3 13:31
2ND & 8
OWN 25
+10
96.8%
Jaylen Wright run for 10 yds to the TENN 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:11
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
97.0%
Jaylen Wright run for 15 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:50
1ST & 10
50
+16
97.1%
Joe Milton III pass complete to Squirrel White for 16 yds to the UVA 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:35
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+1
97.3%
Joe Milton III pass complete to Squirrel White for 1 yd to the UVA 33Similar
Q3 12:02
2ND & 9
OPP 33
+13
97.3%
Joe Milton III pass complete to Squirrel White for 13 yds to the UVA 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:44
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+5
97.3%
Joe Milton III pass complete to Squirrel White for 5 yds to the UVA 15Similar
Q3 11:25
2ND & 5
OPP 15
+14
97.3%
Joe Milton III pass complete to Bru McCoy for 14 yds to the UVA 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
97.3%
Dylan Sampson run for no gain to the UVA 1Similar
Q3 10:52
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.1%
Joe Milton III run for 1 yd for a TD (Charles Campbell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 18DOWNS
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:471% → 1%
Q3 10:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
98.9%
Kobe Pace run for 3 yds to the UVA 28Similar
Q3 10:21
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
98.9%
Tony Muskett pass incomplete to Malik WashingtonSimilar
Q3 10:05
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+6
98.9%
Tony Muskett pass complete to Malik Washington for 6 yds to the UVA 34Similar
Q3 9:51
4TH & 1
OWN 34
-4
98.9%
Tony Muskett run for a loss of 4 yards to the UVA 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 19TD
6 plays · 30 yds · 2:1299% → 100%
Q3 9:35
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+5
99.2%
Jabari Small run for 5 yds to the UVA 25Similar
Q3 9:21
2ND & 5
OPP 25
+8
99.2%
Jabari Small run for 8 yds to the UVA 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:55
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+12
99.2%
Jabari Small run for 12 yds to the UVA 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
99.2%
Jabari Small run for no gain to the UVA 5Similar
Q3 8:02
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
99.2%
Jabari Small run for 3 yds to the UVA 2Similar
Q3 7:23
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
99.7%
Dylan Sampson run for 2 yds for a TD (Charles Campbell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 20TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 4:051% → 1%
Q3 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
99.5%
Perris Jones run for 11 yds to the UVA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:37
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
99.3%
Perris Jones run for 2 yds to the UVA 38Similar
Q3 6:03
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+3
99.3%
Kobe Pace run for 3 yds to the UVA 41Similar
Q3 5:10
3RD & 5
OWN 41
+15
99.2%
Tony Muskett pass complete to Malachi Fields for 15 yds to the TENN 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:42
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
99.2%
Kobe Pace run for 2 yds to the TENN 42Similar
Q3 4:03
2ND & 8
OPP 42
+22
99.4%
Kobe Pace run for 22 yds to the TENN 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:33
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+3
99.7%
Kobe Pace run for 3 yds to the TENN 17Similar
Q3 3:05
2ND & 7
OPP 17
+17
99.1%
Perris Jones run for 17 yds for a TD (Will Bettridge KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:38100% → 100%
Q3 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
99.5%
Joe Milton III pass complete to Dont'e Thornton Jr. for 5 yds to the TENN 30Similar
Q3 2:42
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+1
99.5%
Jaylen Wright run for 1 yd to the TENN 31Similar
Q3 2:25
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
99.5%
Joe Milton III pass incomplete to Dont'e Thornton Jr.Similar
Q3 2:17
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
99.5%
Jackson Ross punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Ethan Davies at the UVA 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:291% → 1%
Q3 2:08
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
99.3%
Perris Jones run for 2 yds to the UVA 30Similar
Q3 1:31
2ND & 8
OWN 30
+2
99.4%
Perris Jones run for 2 yds to the UVA 32Similar
Q3 0:58
3RD & 6
OWN 32
0
99.4%
Tony Muskett pass incomplete to Malachi FieldsSimilar
Q3 0:39
4TH & 6
OWN 32
+55
99.4%
Daniel Sparks punt for 50 yds , Dee Williams returns for 55 yds to the UVA 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 23TD
6 plays · 27 yds · 1:49100% → 100%
Q3 0:25
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+6
99.6%
Dylan Sampson run for 6 yds to the UVA 21Similar
Q3 0:20
2ND & 4
OPP 21
+2
99.6%
Dylan Sampson run for 2 yds to the UVA 19Similar
Q4 14:50
3RD & 2
OPP 19
+7
99.6%
Dylan Sampson run for 7 yds to the UVA 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:36
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
99.6%
Dylan Sampson run for no gain to the UVA 12Similar
Q4 14:08
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+1
99.6%
Dylan Sampson run for 1 yd to the UVA 11Similar
Q4 13:36
3RD & 9
OPP 11
+11
99.9%
Joe Milton III pass complete to Jacob Warren for 11 yds for a TD (Charles Campbell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 24PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 0:440% → 0%
Q4 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-4
99.9%
Tony Muskett sacked by Tyler Baron for a loss of 4 yards to the UVA 17Similar
Q4 13:04
2ND & 14
OWN 17
0
99.9%
Anthony Colandrea pass incomplete to Malik WashingtonSimilar
Q4 13:01
3RD & 14
OWN 17
0
99.9%
Anthony Colandrea pass incomplete to Malachi FieldsSimilar
Q4 12:46
4TH & 14
OWN 17
+31
99.9%
Daniel Sparks punt for 54 yds , Dee Williams returns for 31 yds to the UVA 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 25TD
7 plays · 40 yds · 1:34100% → 100%
Q4 12:40
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+6
99.9%
Dylan Sampson run for 6 yds to the UVA 34Similar
Q4 12:20
2ND & 4
OPP 34
+8
99.9%
Nico Iamaleava run for 8 yds to the UVA 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:56
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+11
99.9%
Dylan Sampson run for 11 yds to the UVA 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:45
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
99.9%
Nico Iamaleava pass incomplete to Kaleb WebbSimilar
Q4 11:35
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+6
99.9%
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Kaleb Webb for 6 yds to the UVA 9Similar
Q4 11:18
3RD & 4
OPP 9
+6
99.9%
Dylan Sampson run for 6 yds to the UVA 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
99.9%
Dylan Sampson run for 3 yds for a TD (Charles Campbell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 26PUNT
9 plays · 30 yds · 4:250% → 0%
Q4 10:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
99.9%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Suderian Harrison for 11 yds to the UVA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
99.9%
Jack Griese run for 3 yds to the UVA 39Similar
Q4 9:49
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+3
99.9%
Jack Griese run for 3 yds to the UVA 42Similar
Q4 9:04
3RD & 4
OWN 42
+7
99.9%
Anthony Colandrea run for 7 yds to the UVA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:23
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+2
99.9%
Jack Griese run for 2 yds to the TENN 49Similar
Q4 7:47
2ND & 8
OPP 49
+3
99.9%
Jack Griese run for 3 yds to the TENN 46Similar
Q4 7:05
3RD & 5
OPP 46
+1
99.9%
Jack Griese run for 1 yd to the TENN 45Similar
Q4 6:19
4TH & 4
OPP 45
0
99.9%
Daniel Sparks punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Dee Williams at the TENN 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 27PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:34100% → 100%
Q4 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+2
99.9%
Cameron Seldon run for 2 yds to the TENN 12Similar
Q4 5:45
2ND & 8
OWN 12
+2
99.9%
Cameron Seldon run for 2 yds to the TENN 14Similar
Q4 5:14
3RD & 6
OWN 14
+5
99.9%
Nico Iamaleava pass complete to Kaleb Webb for 5 yds to the TENN 19Similar
Q4 4:36
4TH & 1
OWN 19
0
99.9%
Jackson Ross punt for 50 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UVA 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 28FG
11 plays · 47 yds · 3:250% → 0%
Q4 4:04
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
100.0%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Amaad Foston for 1 yd to the UVA 32Similar
Q4 3:53
2ND & 9
OWN 32
+5
100.0%
Amaad Foston run for 5 yds to the UVA 37Similar
Q4 3:11
3RD & 4
OWN 37
+10
100.0%
Anthony Colandrea run for 10 yds to the UVA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+15
100.0%
Tennessee Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Rickey Gibson III) to the TENN 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:40
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
100.0%
Anthony Colandrea pass incomplete to Jaden GibsonSimilar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+8
100.0%
Amaad Foston run for 8 yds to the TENN 30Similar
Q4 1:41
3RD & 2
OPP 30
+5
100.0%
Amaad Foston run for 5 yds to the TENN 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:30
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
99.9%
Anthony Colandrea pass incomplete to JR WilsonSimilar
Q4 1:20
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+3
100.0%
Jack Griese run for 3 yds to the TENN 22Similar
Q4 0:46
3RD & 7
OPP 22
0
100.0%
Anthony Colandrea pass incomplete to JR WilsonSimilar
Q4 0:39
4TH & 7
OPP 22
+40
100.0%
Will Bettridge 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 29END OF GAME
3 plays · 8 yds · 0:09100% → 100%
Q4 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
100.0%
Khalifa Keith run for 6 yds to the TENN 31Similar
Q4 0:01
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+2
100.0%
Khalifa Keith run for 2 yds to the TENN 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 4:41
Dylan Sampson run for 3 yds for a TD (Charles Campbell KICK)
+1.9
TD · Q3 10:52
Joe Milton III run for 1 yd for a TD (Charles Campbell KICK)
+1.8
TD · Q2 0:06
Joe Milton III run for 1 yd for a TD (Charles Campbell KICK)
+1.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com