Try the model
ARMY

Army 13 at UL Monroe 17

ULM
2023 · Week 1 · Sep 2, 2023 · Malone Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · ULM
modelULM aheadARMY aheadconfidence bandkey playULM scoreARMY score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDFGFGTDTDEnd of GameFG-4.4ULM 23.2%Quinn Maretzki 22 yd FG GOODAWAY 10 - HOME 3 · Q2 0:07
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 0:07 · Quinn Maretzki 22 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+27.5+13.80−13.8−27.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 74Pregame prior−13.5Home team on offense−9.7Garbage-time factor−2.8Score differential−2.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−2.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 2:38: Bo Nicolas-Paul 44 Yd Interception Return (Quinn Maretzki Kick) — ARMY win probability +13.5 pts (now 70%) (top driver: ULM has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 0:07: Quinn Maretzki 22 yd FG GOOD — ARMY win probability +4.4 pts (now 77%) (top driver: ARMY has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 5:43: Hunter Smith run for 62 yds for a TD (Derek McCormick KICK) — ULM win probability +26.0 pts (now 34%) (top driver: ULM has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 2:48: Hunter Herring pass complete to Tyrone Howell for 9 yds for a TD (Derek McCormick KICK) — ULM win probability +40.2 pts (now 81%) (top driver: ULM has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 2:15: Timeout Army, clock 02:15 — ULM win probability +16.2 pts (now 89%) (top driver: ULM has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ULM made the numbers' call on 8 of 9ARMY made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
  1. Q1 14:00ULM 4th & 4 at ULM 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.7%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:00ULM 4th & 5 at ULM 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.1%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.2%
    average punt
  3. Q1 0:00ARMY 4th & 10 at ULM 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 63.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.5%−0.5
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    64.0%
    75% to make
    Punt
    61.5%−2.5
    average punt
  4. Q2 11:02ULM 4th & 6 at ARMY 39, tied
    Close callPunted · 39.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.6%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    39.2%−0.5
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    39.3%−0.3
    average punt
  5. Q2 6:20ULM 4th & 6 at ARMY 6, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 42.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.5%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    41.7%
    91% to make
    Punt
    36.2%−5.5
    average punt
  6. Q2 4:26ARMY 4th & 3 at ARMY 32, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.8%−0.3
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.1%
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:07ARMY 4th & 5 at ULM 5, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 66.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.5%−0.3
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    65.8%
    92% to make
    Punt
    61.1%−4.7
    average punt
  8. Q3 13:23ARMY 4th & 3 at ARMY 32, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.4%−0.5
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.9%
    average punt
  9. Q3 11:08ULM 4th & 7 at ULM 37, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.5%−0.8
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.4%
    average punt
  10. Q3 4:40ARMY 4th & 1 at ULM 49, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.9 ptsPunted · 74.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.2%−2.9
    average punt
  11. Q3 3:06ULM 4th & 20 at ULM 40, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.4%−3.9
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.3%
    average punt
  12. Q4 12:53ARMY 4th & 9 at ULM 11, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 77.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.4%−1.0
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    77.4%
    87% to make
    Punt
    69.7%−7.7
    average punt
  13. Q4 12:53ULM 4th & 1 at ULM 34, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 18.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    19.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    18.0%−1.2
    average punt
  14. Q4 8:19ULM 4th & 12 at ARMY 41, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.2%−0.4
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    13.5%−<0.1
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    13.6%
    average punt
  15. Q4 5:54ARMY 4th & 3 at ARMY 10, up 10
    Close callPunted · 87.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.3%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.1%−0.2
    average punt
  16. Q4 0:29ULM 4th & 7 at ARMY 7, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 89.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.2%−1.3
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    89.5%
    91% to make
    Punt
    82.2%−7.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ULM made the numbers' call on 1 of 2ARMY made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q2 2:38ARMY Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q4 5:43ULM Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    27.9%−1.0
    97% to make
    Go for two
    28.9%
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 2:48ULM Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.8%−1.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ULMDrive 1PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:0025% → 26%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-7
25.3%
Jiya Wright run for a loss of 7 yards to the ULM 16 Jiya Wright fumbled, recovered by ULM Jiya WrightSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 19
OWN 16
+4
25.3%
Jiya Wright pass complete to Tyrone Howell for 4 yds to the ULM 20Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 15
OWN 20
+11
25.3%
Jiya Wright pass complete to Tyrone Howell for 11 yds to the ULM 31Similar
Q1 14:00
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
25.7%
Braxton Guilbeau punt for 48 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 2FUMBLE
8 plays · 62 yds · 4:4974% → 73%
Q1 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+4
25.8%
Bryson Daily run for 4 yds to the ARMY 25Similar
Q1 14:00
2ND & 6
OWN 25
0
25.8%
Jakobi Buchanan run for no gain to the ARMY 25Similar
Q1 14:00
3RD & 6
OWN 25
+53
25.8%
Bryson Daily pass complete to Liam Fortner for 53 yds to the ULM 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+7
25.7%
Ay'Jaun Marshall run for 7 yds to the ULM 15Similar
Q1 14:00
2ND & 3
OPP 15
0
25.7%
Bryson Daily run for no gain to the ULM 15Similar
Q1 14:00
3RD & 3
OPP 15
+4
25.7%
Bryson Daily run for 4 yds to the ULM 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+5
25.7%
UL Monroe Penalty, Offsides (5 Yards) to the ULM 6Similar
Q1 9:11
1ST & 5
OPP 6
-11
27.5%
Bryson Daily sacked for a loss of 11 yards to the ULM 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 1:0428% → 28%
Q1 9:04
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+5
28.3%
Hunter Smith run for 5 yds to the ULM 22Similar
Q1 9:04
2ND & 5
OWN 22
+5
28.3%
Jiya Wright run for 5 yds to the ULM 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:04
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+5
28.3%
Jiya Wright run for 5 yds to the ULM 32Similar
Q1 9:04
2ND & 5
OWN 32
0
28.4%
Jiya Wright run for no gain to the ULM 32Similar
Q1 9:04
3RD & 5
OWN 32
0
28.1%
Jiya Wright pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:00
4TH & 5
OWN 32
0
28.4%
Braxton Guilbeau punt for 35 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 4MISSED FG
12 plays · 47 yds · 8:0072% → 69%
Q1 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
28.3%
Tyson Riley run for 4 yds to the ARMY 37Similar
Q1 8:00
2ND & 6
OWN 37
+3
28.2%
Bryson Daily run for 3 yds to the ARMY 40Similar
Q1 8:00
3RD & 3
OWN 40
+5
28.1%
Jakobi Buchanan run for 5 yds to the ARMY 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
28.0%
Bryson Daily run for 4 yds to the ARMY 49Similar
Q1 8:00
2ND & 6
OWN 49
+16
28.0%
Bryson Daily pass complete to Isaiah Alston for 16 yds to the ULM 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+3
27.7%
Tyson Riley run for 3 yds to the ULM 32 Tyson Riley fumbled, recovered by ARMYSimilar
Q1 8:00
2ND & 7
OPP 32
+12
27.6%
Bryson Daily run for 12 yds to the ULM 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:30
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+2
29.0%
Hayden Reed run for 2 yds to the ULM 18Similar
Q1 2:30
2ND & 8
OPP 18
+3
29.0%
Miles Stewart run for 3 yds to the ULM 15Similar
Q1 2:30
3RD & 5
OPP 15
-5
29.4%
Army Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the ULM 20Similar
Q1 2:30
3RD & 10
OPP 20
0
29.6%
Bryson Daily pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:00
4TH & 10
OPP 20
+37
31.5%
Quinn Maretzki 37 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 5PUNT
11 plays · 41 yds · 3:5833% → 35%
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
32.7%
Isaiah Woullard run for 5 yds to the ULM 25Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 25
-2
32.9%
Isaiah Woullard run for a loss of 2 yards to the ULM 23Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 23
+9
32.0%
Jiya Wright pass complete to Tyrone Howell for 9 yds to the ULM 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+13
33.0%
Jiya Wright pass complete to NyNy Davis for 13 yds to the ULM 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
34.0%
Jiya Wright pass complete to NyNy Davis for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
50
+3
34.2%
Jiya Wright pass complete to Tyrone Howell for 3 yds to the ARMY 47Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 47
+4
34.0%
Jiya Wright pass complete to Tyrone Howell for 4 yds to the ARMY 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
34.4%
Jiya Wright pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 43
0
34.2%
Jiya Wright pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 43
+4
33.6%
Jiya Wright run for 4 yds to the ARMY 39Similar
Q2 11:02
4TH & 6
OPP 39
0
35.4%
Braxton Guilbeau punt for 39 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 6INT
5 plays · 22 yds · 4:4668% → 67%
Q2 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
32.4%
Bryson Daily pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:50
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
32.5%
Bryson Daily run for no gain to the ARMY 20Similar
Q2 13:50
3RD & 10
OWN 20
+20
33.1%
Bryson Daily pass complete to Isaiah Alston for 20 yds to the ARMY 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
31.4%
Bryson Daily run for 2 yds to the ARMY 42Similar
Q2 9:04
2ND & 8
OWN 42
0
32.9%
Bryson Daily pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 7FG
9 plays · 38 yds · 2:4439% → 41%
Q2 9:04
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
38.5%
Jiya Wright pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:04
2ND & 10
OPP 44
0
38.3%
Jiya Wright pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:04
3RD & 10
OPP 44
+26
37.0%
Jiya Wright run for 26 yds to the ARMY 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:04
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+10
38.9%
Jiya Wright pass complete to Tyrone Howell for 10 yds to the ARMY 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
38.9%
Jiya Wright pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:04
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
38.9%
Jiya Wright run for 2 yds to the ARMY 6Similar
Q2 6:45
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
39.5%
Jiya Wright pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:20
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+24
40.9%
Derek McCormick 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 1:5460% → 58%
Q2 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
39.7%
Bryson Daily run for 6 yds to the ARMY 31Similar
Q2 6:20
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
38.7%
Bryson Daily run for no gain to the ARMY 31Similar
Q2 6:20
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+1
39.6%
Hayden Reed run for 1 yd to the ARMY 32Similar
Q2 4:26
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
42.1%
Cooper Allan punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Bugs Mortimer at the ULM 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 9INT TD
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:4844% → 30%
Q2 4:26
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+8
43.9%
Hunter Smith run for 8 yds to the ULM 35Similar
Q2 4:26
2ND & 2
OWN 35
+3
45.0%
Hunter Smith run for 3 yds to the ULM 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:26
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-4
45.1%
Jiya Wright sacked by Jimmy Ciarlo for a loss of 4 yards to the ULM 34Similar
Q2 4:26
2ND & 14
OWN 34
+1
43.4%
Hunter Smith run for 1 yd to the ULM 35Similar
Q2 2:38
3RD & 13
OWN 35
-44
29.8%
Bo Nicolas-Paul 44 Yd Interception Return (Quinn Maretzki Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 10INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0031% → 31%
Q2 1:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
31.3%
Jiya Wright pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 11FG
6 plays · 19 yds · 1:2173% → 77%
Q2 1:28
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+10
26.7%
Bryson Daily run for 10 yds to the ULM 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:28
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+10
26.7%
Bryson Daily run for 10 yds to the ULM 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
26.7%
Bryson Daily run for no gain to the ULM 4Similar
Q2 1:28
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
-1
26.7%
Bryson Daily run for a loss of 1 yard to the ULM 5Similar
Q2 1:28
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
27.6%
Bryson Daily pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:07
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+22
23.2%
Quinn Maretzki 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:3774% → 72%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
25.7%
Jakobi Buchanan run for 2 yds to the ARMY 27Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+5
25.6%
Bryson Daily run for 5 yds to the ARMY 32Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
25.6%
Tyson Riley run for no gain to the ARMY 32Similar
Q3 13:23
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
26.7%
Cooper Allan punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Bugs Mortimer at the ULM 34Similar
Q3 13:23
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-10
28.0%
WOULLARD, Isaiah rush up the middle for a gain of 8 yards to the ULM42 (DIDOMENICO, Max;FREY, Chris). PENALTY ULM Holding on MCGILL, Zarian enforced 10 yards from the ULM34 to the ULM24 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 2:1527% → 27%
Q3 13:23
1ST & 20
OWN 24
+10
27.3%
Jiya Wright pass complete to Tyrone Howell for 10 yds to the ULM 34Similar
Q3 13:23
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+1
27.8%
Jiya Wright pass complete to NyNy Davis for 1 yd to the ULM 35Similar
Q3 13:23
3RD & 9
OWN 35
+2
27.0%
Jiya Wright run for 2 yds to the ULM 37Similar
Q3 11:08
4TH & 7
OWN 37
0
26.5%
Braxton Guilbeau punt for 59 yds, downed at the ARMY 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 14PUNT
12 plays · 47 yds · 6:2874% → 77%
Q3 11:08
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+6
26.0%
Hayden Reed run for 6 yds to the ARMY 10Similar
Q3 11:08
2ND & 4
OWN 10
+5
26.0%
Hayden Reed run for 5 yds to the ARMY 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:08
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+3
25.7%
Jakobi Buchanan run for 3 yds to the ARMY 18Similar
Q3 11:08
2ND & 7
OWN 18
+4
25.8%
Hayden Reed run for 4 yds to the ARMY 22Similar
Q3 11:08
3RD & 3
OWN 22
+6
25.6%
Bryson Daily run for 6 yds to the ARMY 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:08
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
24.6%
Hayden Reed run for 2 yds to the ARMY 30Similar
Q3 11:08
2ND & 8
OWN 30
+12
24.7%
Bryson Daily pass complete to Noah Short for 12 yds to the ARMY 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:08
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+6
23.2%
Hayden Reed run for 6 yds to the ARMY 48Similar
Q3 11:08
2ND & 4
OWN 48
+2
23.1%
Jakobi Buchanan run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 11:08
3RD & 2
50
+1
23.1%
Bryson Daily run for 1 yd to the ULM 49Similar
Q3 4:40
4TH & 1
OPP 49
0
22.6%
Cooper Allan punt for 49 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 15PUNT
8 plays · 20 yds · 1:3426% → 25%
Q3 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
26.3%
Jiya Wright run for 9 yds to the ULM 29Similar
Q3 4:40
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+21
28.2%
Hunter Smith run for 21 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:40
1ST & 10
50
0
30.2%
Jiya Wright pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:40
2ND & 10
50
-5
29.4%
Jiya Wright run for a loss of 5 yards to the ULM 45Similar
Q3 4:40
3RD & 15
OWN 45
0
26.0%
Jiya Wright pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:40
4TH & 15
OWN 45
-5
25.1%
UL Monroe Penalty, Delay Of Game (-5 Yards) to the ULM 40Similar
Q3 3:06
4TH & 20
OWN 40
0
25.1%
Braxton Guilbeau punt for 29 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 16FG
9 plays · 58 yds · 5:1378% → 82%
Q3 3:06
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+36
22.0%
Ay'Jaun Marshall run for 36 yds to the ULM 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:06
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+10
19.5%
Miles Stewart run for 10 yds to the ULM 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:06
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+4
19.3%
Miles Stewart run for 4 yds to the ULM 19Similar
Q3 3:06
2ND & 6
OPP 19
+3
19.3%
Hayden Reed run for 3 yds to the ULM 16Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 3
OPP 16
+4
18.9%
Bryson Daily run for 4 yds to the ULM 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+2
18.3%
Bryson Daily run for 2 yds to the ULM 10Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 10
-2
18.3%
Miles Stewart run for a loss of 2 yards to the ULM 12Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 12
+1
19.3%
Hayden Reed run for 1 yd to the ULM 11Similar
Q4 12:53
4TH & 9
OPP 11
+28
17.8%
Quinn Maretzki 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 17PUNT
16 plays · 34 yds · 4:3414% → 9%
Q4 12:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
13.6%
Isaiah Woullard run for 3 yds to the ULM 28Similar
Q4 12:53
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+1
13.5%
Hunter Herring pass complete to Dariyan Wiley for 1 yd to the ULM 29Similar
Q4 12:53
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+5
13.1%
Hunter Herring pass complete to NyNy Davis for 5 yds to the ULM 34Similar
Q4 12:53
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+1
12.5%
Hunter Herring run for 1 yd to the ULM 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:53
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
13.7%
Isaiah Woullard run for 6 yds to the ULM 41Similar
Q4 12:53
2ND & 4
OWN 41
0
14.7%
Hunter Herring pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:53
3RD & 4
OWN 41
+5
14.1%
Hunter Herring run for 5 yds to the ULM 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:53
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
14.7%
Hunter Herring pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:53
2ND & 10
OWN 46
0
14.2%
Hunter Herring pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:53
3RD & 10
OWN 46
0
13.6%
Hunter Herring pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:02
4TH & 10
OWN 46
+15
9.3%
GUILBEAU, Braxton punt 39 yards to the AWP15, fair catch by JONES, Cameron, clock 10:02. PENALTY AWP Roughing the Kicker on MODOZIE, Elo enforced 15 yards from the ULM46 to the AWP39 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 10:02
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
11.6%
Hunter Herring pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:02
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+1
11.3%
Isaiah Woullard run for 1 yd to the ARMY 38Similar
Q4 10:02
3RD & 9
OPP 38
-10
11.1%
HERRING, Hunter scrambles to the left for no gain to the AWP38 (NICOLAS-PAUL, Bo), out of bounds. PENALTY ULM Holding on WILKINS, Stacey enforced 10 yards from the AWP38 to the AWP48 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 10:02
3RD & 19
OPP 48
+7
10.1%
Hunter Herring pass complete to Tyrone Howell for 7 yds to the ARMY 41Similar
Q4 8:19
4TH & 12
OPP 41
0
9.3%
Braxton Guilbeau punt for 38 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 18PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 2:2588% → 90%
Q4 8:19
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+2
12.3%
Jakobi Buchanan run for 2 yds to the ARMY 5Similar
Q4 8:19
2ND & 8
OWN 5
-1
12.6%
Hayden Reed run for a loss of 1 yard to the ARMY 4Similar
Q4 8:19
3RD & 9
OWN 4
+6
13.1%
Bryson Daily run for 6 yds to the ARMY 10Similar
Q4 5:54
4TH & 3
OWN 10
0
10.3%
Cooper Allan punt for 52 yds, downed at the ULM 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 19TD
1 play · 62 yds · 0:0034% → 34%
Q4 5:43
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+62
33.5%
Hunter Smith run for 62 yds for a TD (Derek McCormick KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 20FUMBLE
4 plays · 20 yds · 0:5572% → 62%
Q4 5:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
28.3%
Bryson Daily run for no gain to the ARMY 25Similar
Q4 5:43
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
29.0%
Bryson Daily pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:48
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+20
29.9%
Bryson Daily pass complete to Ay'Jaun Marshall for 20 yds Ay'Jaun Marshall fumbled, recovered by ULM Car'lin VigersSimilar
Q4 4:48
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-5
38.5%
UL Monroe Penalty, False Start (Dariyan Wiley) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 21TD
4 plays · 45 yds · 2:0035% → 81%
Q4 4:48
1ST & 15
50
+5
34.7%
Hunter Herring run for 5 yds to the ARMY 45Similar
Q4 4:48
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+33
37.6%
Isaiah Woullard run for 33 yds to the ARMY 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:48
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+3
40.9%
Hunter Smith run for 3 yds to the ARMY 9Similar
Q4 2:48
2ND & 7
OPP 9
+9
81.1%
Hunter Herring pass complete to Tyrone Howell for 9 yds for a TD (Derek McCormick KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 22INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:2730% → 27%
Q4 2:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
70.0%
Bryson Daily run for no gain to the ARMY 25Similar
Q4 2:21
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
72.7%
Bryson Daily pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 23MISSED FG
10 plays · 12 yds · 1:4689% → 94%
Q4 2:15
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+3
88.9%
Isaiah Woullard run for 3 yds to the ARMY 16Similar
Q4 2:15
2ND & 7
OPP 16
+7
88.9%
Isaiah Woullard run for 7 yds to the ARMY 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
93.1%
Isaiah Woullard run for 2 yds to the ARMY 7Similar
Q4 1:22
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
-2
94.6%
Isaiah Woullard run for a loss of 2 yards to the ARMY 9Similar
Q4 0:36
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
95.1%
Hunter Herring run for 2 yds to the ARMY 7Similar
Q4 0:29
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+24
94.2%
Derek McCormick 24 yd FG BLOCKED blocked bySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 24FUMBLE
2 plays · 1 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
Q4 0:29
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-2
89.9%
Dewayne Coleman run for a loss of 2 yards to the ARMY 13Similar
Q4 0:29
2ND & 12
OWN 13
+3
90.2%
Dewayne Coleman run for 3 yds to the ARMY 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 2:48
Hunter Herring pass complete to Tyrone Howell for 9 yds for a TD (Derek McCormick KICK)
+40.2
TD · Q4 5:43
Hunter Smith run for 62 yds for a TD (Derek McCormick KICK)
+26
KEY PLAY · Q4 2:15
Timeout Army, clock 02:15
+16.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com