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LT

Louisiana Tech 14 at SMU 38

SMU
2023 · Week 1 · Sep 2, 2023 · Gerald J. Ford Stadium
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Win probability · SMU
modelSMU aheadLT aheadconfidence bandkey playSMU scoreLT score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 10:31 · Blake Ochsendorf punt for 46 yds, downed at the SMU 2
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+40.0+20.00−20.0−40.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 53Pregame prior+29.9Home team on offense+8.1Score differential+3.2Garbage-time factor+1.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 4:17: Preston Stone pass complete to Jordan Hudson for 67 yds for a TD (Collin Rogers KICK) — SMU win probability +2.1 pts (now 89%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 3:36: Kori Roberson 16 Yd Interception Return (Collin Rogers Kick) — SMU win probability +1.8 pts (now 90%) (top driver: LT has the ball).
  3. FG · Q2 14:11: Collin Rogers 34 yd FG GOOD — SMU win probability +1.5 pts (now 92%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 0:02: Preston Stone pass complete to RJ Maryland for 25 yds for a TD (Collin Rogers KICK) — SMU win probability +2.0 pts (now 99%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 13:52: Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Koby Duru for 53 yds for a TD (Jacob Barnes KICK) — LT win probability +3.5 pts (now 4%) (top driver: LT has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
SMU made the numbers' call on 8 of 11LT made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
  1. Q1 13:22SMU 4th & 1 at SMU 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 89.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    89.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    89.6%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:39SMU 4th & 19 at SMU 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.0%−0.2
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.2%
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:10LT 4th & 21 at LT 10, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.2%−0.2
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.4%
    average punt
  4. Q1 7:24SMU 4th & 14 at SMU 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.5%−0.2
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.7%
    average punt
  5. Q1 4:28LT 4th & 6 at SMU 33, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 13.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.3%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    13.3%−<0.1
    49% to make
    Punt
    13.2%−0.2
    average punt
  6. Q1 2:45LT 4th & 11 at LT 19, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.3%−0.4
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.7%
    average punt
  7. Q2 14:11SMU 4th & 14 at LT 17, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 90.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.6%−0.9
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    90.4%
    80% to make
    Punt
    87.8%−2.6
    average punt
  8. Q2 10:31LT 4th & 9 at SMU 48, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.6%−0.3
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.9%
    average punt
  9. Q2 8:26SMU 4th & 2 at SMU 10, up 17
    Close callPunted · 92.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.9%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.5%−0.4
    average punt
  10. Q2 4:18LT 4th & 17 at LT 28, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.7%−0.8
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.5%
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:30LT 4th & 10 at SMU 48, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.0%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.0%
    average punt
  12. Q2 1:59SMU 4th & 4 at LT 49, up 24
    Close callPunted · 96.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.2%−0.1
    average punt
  13. Q3 9:08SMU 4th & 7 at LT 32, up 24
    Close callKicked a field goal · 97.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.1%
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    97.1%−<0.1
    51% to make
    Punt
    96.9%−0.3
    average punt
  14. Q3 7:33LT 4th & 7 at LT 35, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.5%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.8%
    average punt
  15. Q3 3:21SMU 4th & 13 at LT 19, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 98.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.9%−0.4
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    98.3%
    77% to make
    Punt
    97.0%−1.3
    average punt
  16. Q4 14:19LT 4th & 4 at SMU 49, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.3%−0.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 11:47SMU 4th & 1 at LT 24, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    98.7%−0.2
    68% to make
    Punt
    98.1%−0.8
    average punt
  18. Q4 8:09LT 4th & 2 at LT 46, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  19. Q4 7:07SMU 4th & 3 at LT 39, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.1%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    99.0%−0.2
    36% to make
    Punt
    99.0%−0.2
    average punt
  20. Q4 5:03SMU 4th & 3 at LT 27, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    99.2%−0.1
    62% to make
    Punt
    98.9%−0.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SMU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5LT made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 4:17SMU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 3:36SMU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 5:08SMU Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:02SMU Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 13:52LT Touchdown, down 25 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    2.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    2.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 2:32SMU Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 0:26LT Touchdown, down 25 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SMUDrive 1PUNT
10 plays · 15 yds · 3:1790% → 89%
Q1 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
90.0%
Jaylan Knighton run for 12 yds to the SMU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:37
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
89.9%
Jaylan Knighton run for 2 yds to the SMU 39Similar
Q1 14:16
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+5
89.8%
Preston Stone pass complete to Jordan Kerley for 5 yds to the SMU 44Similar
Q1 13:56
3RD & 3
OWN 44
+2
89.8%
Jaylan Knighton run for 2 yds to the SMU 46Similar
Q1 13:22
4TH & 1
OWN 46
+3
89.6%
Tyler Lavine run for 3 yds to the SMU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:06
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+1
89.6%
Preston Stone pass complete to Key'Shawn Smith for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 12:30
2ND & 9
50
-5
89.4%
Preston Stone pass complete to Roderick Daniels Jr. for a loss of 5 yards to the SMU 45Similar
Q1 12:00
3RD & 14
OWN 45
-5
89.2%
SMU Penalty, False Start (Roderick Daniels Jr.) to the SMU 40Similar
Q1 11:43
3RD & 19
OWN 40
0
89.1%
Preston Stone pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:39
4TH & 19
OWN 40
0
89.0%
Ryan Bujcevski punt for 53 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 2:1511% → 12%
Q1 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+14
89.0%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Cyrus Allen for 14 yds to the LT 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:51
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-5
88.8%
Hank Bachmeier sacked by Alexander Kilgore for a loss of 5 yards to the LT 16Similar
Q1 10:09
2ND & 15
OWN 16
+1
88.7%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Nate Jones for 1 yd to the LT 17Similar
Q1 9:47
3RD & 14
OWN 17
-7
88.6%
Hank Bachmeier sacked by JaQwondis Burns for a loss of 7 yards to the LT 10Similar
Q1 9:10
4TH & 21
OWN 10
0
88.5%
Blake Ochsendorf punt for 57 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 1:3588% → 88%
Q1 8:59
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
88.4%
Preston Stone run for 1 yd to the SMU 38Similar
Q1 8:31
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+5
88.2%
LJ Johnson Jr. run for 5 yds to the SMU 43Similar
Q1 8:07
3RD & 4
OWN 43
-10
88.2%
(08:07) STONE, Preston pass deep up the middle complete for 35 yards to BAILEY, Jake caught at the LAT25 and advanced to the LAT22 (RANDLE, Brevin), clock 07:57. PENALTY SMU Holding on PARR, Logan enforced 10 yards from the SMU43 to the SMU33 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 7:30
3RD & 14
OWN 33
0
87.6%
Preston Stone pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:24
4TH & 14
OWN 33
0
87.5%
Ryan Bujcevski punt for 51 yds , returns for no gain to the LT 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 4MISSED FG
6 plays · 40 yds · 2:4712% → 14%
Q1 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+5
87.6%
Charvis Thornton run for 5 yds to the LT 32Similar
Q1 6:37
2ND & 5
OWN 32
+31
87.3%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Kyle Maxwell for 31 yds to the SMU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:58
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+2
86.8%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Smoke Harris for 2 yds to the SMU 35Similar
Q1 5:18
2ND & 8
OPP 35
0
86.4%
Hank Bachmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:13
3RD & 8
OPP 35
+2
86.5%
Charvis Thornton run for 2 yds to the SMU 33Similar
Q1 4:28
4TH & 6
OPP 33
+50
86.5%
Buck Buchanan 50 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 5TD
1 play · 67 yds · 0:0089% → 89%
Q1 4:17
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+67
88.6%
Preston Stone pass complete to Jordan Hudson for 67 yds for a TD (Collin Rogers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 6INT TD
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:3812% → 10%
Q1 4:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
88.5%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Smoke Harris for a loss of 2 yards to the LT 23Similar
Q1 3:36
2ND & 12
OWN 23
-16
90.2%
Kori Roberson 16 Yd Interception Return (Collin Rogers Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:4410% → 10%
Q1 3:29
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
90.2%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Keith Willis Jr. for a loss of 1 yard to the LT 19Similar
Q1 2:53
2ND & 11
OWN 19
0
90.2%
Hank Bachmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:51
3RD & 11
OWN 19
0
90.3%
Hank Bachmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:45
4TH & 11
OWN 19
0
90.3%
Blake Ochsendorf punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Roderick Daniels Jr. at the SMU 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 8FG
11 plays · 41 yds · 3:2891% → 92%
Q1 2:39
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
90.8%
Jaylan Knighton run for 2 yds to the SMU 44Similar
Q1 2:14
2ND & 8
OWN 44
+3
90.8%
Jaylan Knighton run for 3 yds to the SMU 47Similar
Q1 1:33
3RD & 5
OWN 47
+14
90.7%
Preston Stone pass complete to Moochie Dixon for 14 yds to the LT 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:10
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+14
90.9%
(01:10) STONE, Preston pass up the middle incomplete intended for KNIGHTON, Jaylan thrown to the LAT25, clock 01:09. PENALTY LAT Pass Interference on HEARD, Myles enforced at the spot of the foul for 14 yards to the LAT25 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 1:05
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
90.9%
Roderick Daniels Jr. run for no gain to the LT 25Similar
Q1 0:33
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+12
91.0%
Jaylan Knighton run for 12 yds to the LT 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:10
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-2
91.0%
Jaylan Knighton run for a loss of 2 yards to the LT 15Similar
Q2 14:59
2ND & 12
OPP 15
-2
91.0%
Preston Stone pass complete to Moochie Dixon for a loss of 2 yards to the LT 17Similar
Q2 14:18
3RD & 14
OPP 17
0
90.3%
Preston Stone pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:11
4TH & 14
OPP 17
+34
91.8%
Collin Rogers 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 9PUNT
9 plays · 28 yds · 3:299% → 9%
Q2 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+5
91.4%
Jacob Fields run for 5 yds to the LT 29Similar
Q2 12:54
2ND & 5
OWN 29
+5
91.2%
SMU Penalty, Illegal Shift (5 Yards) to the LT 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
91.2%
Jacob Fields run for 2 yds to the LT 36Similar
Q2 12:33
2ND & 8
OWN 36
0
91.2%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Smoke Harris for no gain to the LT 36Similar
Q2 12:11
3RD & 8
OWN 36
+15
91.4%
(12:11) BACHMEIER, Hank pass deep to the left incomplete intended for MAXWELL, Kyle thrown to the SMU43, clock 12:12. PENALTY SMU Pass Interference on WOODS, Charles enforced 15 yards to the SMU49 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 12:09
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
90.9%
Charvis Thornton run for 3 yds to the SMU 46Similar
Q2 11:26
2ND & 7
OPP 46
-2
90.8%
Charvis Thornton run for a loss of 2 yards to the SMU 48Similar
Q2 10:37
3RD & 9
OPP 48
0
91.4%
Hank Bachmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:31
4TH & 9
OPP 48
0
91.5%
Blake Ochsendorf punt for 46 yds, downed at the SMU 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 10TD
13 plays · 98 yds · 5:1592% → 96%
Q2 10:23
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+5
92.0%
LJ Johnson Jr. run for 5 yds to the SMU 7Similar
Q2 9:49
2ND & 5
OWN 7
+2
92.1%
Jaylan Knighton run for 2 yds to the SMU 9Similar
Q2 9:18
3RD & 3
OWN 9
+1
91.9%
Tyler Lavine run for 1 yd to the SMU 10Similar
Q2 8:26
4TH & 2
OWN 10
0
92.1%
Ryan Bujcevski punt for 53 yds , Smoke Harris returns for no gain to the SMU 10 Louisiana Tech Penalty, Chop Block (Myles Heard) to the SMU 30Similar
Q2 8:23
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+7
92.6%
Preston Stone run for 7 yds to the SMU 22Similar
Q2 8:12
2ND & 3
OWN 22
+4
92.3%
Jaylan Knighton run for 4 yds to the SMU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:57
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+43
92.3%
Preston Stone pass complete to Key'Shawn Smith for 43 yds to the LT 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:36
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+3
92.7%
LJ Johnson Jr. run for 3 yds to the LT 28Similar
Q2 7:17
2ND & 7
OPP 28
+14
92.7%
LJ Johnson Jr. run for 14 yds to the LT 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:45
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+1
92.7%
LJ Johnson Jr. run for 1 yd to the LT 13Similar
Q2 5:46
2ND & 9
OPP 13
+4
94.9%
Jaylan Knighton run for 4 yds to the LT 9Similar
Q2 5:08
3RD & 5
OPP 9
+9
96.3%
Preston Stone pass complete to Nolan Matthews-Harris for 9 yds for a TD (Collin Rogers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · -7 yds · 0:505% → 5%
Q2 5:08
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-6
94.9%
Hank Bachmeier sacked by Nelson Paul for a loss of 6 yards to the LT 29Similar
Q2 5:01
2ND & 16
OWN 29
0
95.2%
Hank Bachmeier sacked by Jordan Miller and Kori Roberson for 0 yards to the LT 29Similar
Q2 4:35
3RD & 16
OWN 29
+4
95.3%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Charvis Thornton for 4 yds to the LT 33Similar
Q2 4:18
4TH & 12
OWN 33
-5
95.4%
Louisiana Tech Penalty, Delay Of Game (Myles Heard) to the LT 28Similar
Q2 4:18
4TH & 17
OWN 28
0
95.4%
Blake Ochsendorf punt for 42 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 12PUNT
7 plays · 32 yds · 1:195% → 4%
Q2 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
95.5%
Charvis Thornton run for 8 yds to the LT 28Similar
Q2 1:41
2ND & 2
OWN 28
+24
95.3%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Kyle Maxwell for 24 yds to the SMU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:22
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
95.0%
Charvis Thornton run for no gain to the SMU 48Similar
Q2 0:39
2ND & 10
OPP 48
0
95.3%
Hank Bachmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:39
3RD & 10
OPP 48
0
95.5%
Hank Bachmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:30
4TH & 10
OPP 48
0
95.6%
Blake Ochsendorf punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Jonathan McGill at the SMU 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:4197% → 97%
Q2 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
96.6%
Preston Stone pass complete to Jaylan Knighton for 3 yds to the SMU 48Similar
Q2 3:20
2ND & 7
OWN 48
+3
96.7%
Jaylan Knighton run for 3 yds to the LT 49Similar
Q2 2:54
3RD & 4
OPP 49
0
96.6%
Preston Stone pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:59
4TH & 4
OPP 49
0
96.6%
Ryan Bujcevski punt for 49 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 14TD
4 plays · 92 yds · 0:2897% → 99%
Q2 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+67
97.1%
LJ Johnson Jr. run for 67 yds to the LT 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:30
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
97.1%
Preston Stone pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:16
2ND & 10
OPP 25
0
96.9%
Preston Stone pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:02
3RD & 10
OPP 25
+25
98.9%
Preston Stone pass complete to RJ Maryland for 25 yds for a TD (Collin Rogers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 15TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 1:061% → 4%
Q3 14:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+22
99.0%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Smoke Harris for 22 yds to the LT 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:32
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
98.9%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Koby Duru for no gain to the LT 47Similar
Q3 14:03
2ND & 10
OWN 47
0
99.2%
Hank Bachmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:52
3RD & 10
OWN 47
+53
95.7%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Koby Duru for 53 yds for a TD (Jacob Barnes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 16MISSED FG
13 plays · 43 yds · 4:4097% → 97%
Q3 13:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
96.6%
LJ Johnson Jr. run for 6 yds to the SMU 31Similar
Q3 13:28
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+1
96.7%
LJ Johnson Jr. run for 1 yd to the SMU 32Similar
Q3 12:47
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+3
96.8%
Preston Stone run for 3 yds to the SMU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
96.8%
Preston Stone pass complete to Jake Bailey for no gain to the SMU 35Similar
Q3 11:37
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
97.0%
Preston Stone pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:33
3RD & 10
OWN 35
+15
97.0%
Louisiana Tech Penalty, Face mask (15 yards) (Brevin Randle) to the LT 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:03
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
97.2%
Jaylan Knighton run for 2 yds to the LT 44Similar
Q3 10:47
2ND & 8
OPP 44
+6
97.2%
Jaylan Knighton run for 6 yds to the LT 38Similar
Q3 10:31
3RD & 2
OPP 38
+3
97.2%
Jaylan Knighton run for 3 yds to the LT 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
97.4%
Preston Stone pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:57
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+3
97.4%
LJ Johnson Jr. run for 3 yds to the LT 32Similar
Q3 9:18
3RD & 7
OPP 32
0
97.4%
Preston Stone pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:08
4TH & 7
OPP 32
+49
97.2%
Collin Rogers 49 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:333% → 2%
Q3 9:06
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
97.3%
Hank Bachmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:59
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+6
97.3%
Hank Bachmeier run for 6 yds to the LT 38Similar
Q3 8:08
3RD & 4
OWN 38
-3
97.5%
Hank Bachmeier run for a loss of 3 yards to the LT 35Similar
Q3 7:33
4TH & 7
OWN 35
0
97.6%
Blake Ochsendorf punt for 40 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 18MISSED FG
10 plays · 56 yds · 4:0798% → 98%
Q3 7:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
97.6%
Preston Stone pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:21
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
97.6%
Preston Stone pass complete to Jaylan Knighton for 3 yds to the SMU 28Similar
Q3 6:43
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+15
97.7%
Preston Stone pass complete to RJ Maryland for 15 yds to the SMU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:22
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+14
98.1%
Preston Stone pass complete to Roderick Daniels Jr. for 14 yds to the LT 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:32
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+12
98.3%
Preston Stone pass complete to RJ Maryland for 12 yds to the LT 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:16
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+15
98.3%
LJ Johnson Jr. run for 15 yds to the LT 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:46
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
98.3%
LJ Johnson Jr. run for no gain to the LT 16Similar
Q3 4:11
2ND & 10
OPP 16
-3
98.6%
Tyler Lavine run for a loss of 3 yards to the LT 19Similar
Q3 3:26
3RD & 13
OPP 19
0
98.6%
Preston Stone pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:21
4TH & 13
OPP 19
+36
98.4%
Collin Rogers 36 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 19DOWNS
7 plays · 31 yds · 3:572% → 1%
Q3 3:16
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-7
98.3%
Hank Bachmeier sacked by Alexander Kilgore for a loss of 7 yards to the LT 13Similar
Q3 2:32
2ND & 17
OWN 13
+13
98.4%
Hank Bachmeier run for 13 yds to the LT 26Similar
Q3 1:47
3RD & 4
OWN 26
+19
98.6%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Smoke Harris for 19 yds to the LT 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:28
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-2
98.6%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Charvis Thornton for a loss of 2 yards to the LT 43Similar
Q3 0:39
2ND & 12
OWN 43
0
98.6%
Hank Bachmeier run for no gain to the LT 43Similar
Q4 14:58
3RD & 12
OWN 43
+8
98.8%
Charvis Thornton run for 8 yds to the SMU 49Similar
Q4 14:19
4TH & 4
OPP 49
0
98.8%
Hank Bachmeier pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 20DOWNS
7 plays · 27 yds · 2:2499% → 99%
Q4 14:11
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+1
99.0%
Roderick Daniels Jr. run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 13:37
2ND & 9
50
+17
99.1%
Preston Stone pass complete to Moochie Dixon for 17 yds to the LT 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:17
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
99.1%
Jaylan Knighton run for no gain to the LT 33Similar
Q4 12:43
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+8
99.1%
Jaylan Knighton run for 8 yds to the LT 25Similar
Q4 12:20
3RD & 2
OPP 25
+1
99.1%
Jaylan Knighton run for 1 yd to the LT 24Similar
Q4 11:47
4TH & 1
OPP 24
0
99.1%
Tyler Lavine run for no gain to the LT 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 21DOWNS
9 plays · 22 yds · 3:351% → 1%
Q4 11:44
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+2
99.2%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Smoke Harris for 2 yds to the LT 26Similar
Q4 11:02
2ND & 8
OWN 26
+2
99.2%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Koby Duru for 2 yds to the LT 28Similar
Q4 10:19
3RD & 6
OWN 28
+5
99.3%
SMU Penalty, Offsides (Elijah Chatman) to the LT 33Similar
Q4 10:17
3RD & 1
OWN 33
+5
99.2%
Hank Bachmeier run for 5 yds to the LT 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:54
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-7
99.2%
Hank Bachmeier sacked by Elijah Roberts for a loss of 7 yards to the LT 31Similar
Q4 9:22
2ND & 17
OWN 31
+4
99.3%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Smoke Harris for 4 yds to the LT 35Similar
Q4 8:51
3RD & 13
OWN 35
+11
99.3%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Nate Jones for 11 yds to the LT 46Similar
Q4 8:09
4TH & 2
OWN 46
0
99.3%
Charvis Thornton run for no gain to the LT 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 22TD
15 plays · 46 yds · 5:32100% → 100%
Q4 8:04
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
99.6%
Preston Stone pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:58
2ND & 10
OPP 46
0
99.6%
Preston Stone pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:53
3RD & 10
OPP 46
+7
99.6%
Preston Stone pass complete to Romello Brinson for 7 yds to the LT 39Similar
Q4 7:07
4TH & 3
OPP 39
+5
99.6%
Preston Stone pass complete to Jake Bailey for 5 yds to the LT 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:29
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+2
99.7%
LJ Johnson Jr. run for 2 yds to the LT 32Similar
Q4 5:46
2ND & 8
OPP 32
+5
99.7%
LJ Johnson Jr. run for 5 yds to the LT 27Similar
Q4 5:06
3RD & 3
OPP 27
0
99.7%
Preston Stone pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:03
4TH & 3
OPP 27
+5
99.7%
Preston Stone pass complete to Jordan Hudson for 5 yds to the LT 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:30
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
99.7%
Preston Stone pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:25
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+1
99.8%
Preston Stone pass complete to RJ Maryland for 1 yd to the LT 21Similar
Q4 3:43
3RD & 9
OPP 21
+15
99.8%
STONE, Preston pass deep to the left incomplete intended for BAILEY, Jake thrown to the LAT0, clock 03:43. PENALTY LAT Pass Interference on SINGLETON, Cecil enforced at the spot of the foul for 15 yards to the LAT6 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 3:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
99.8%
Preston Stone pass complete to RJ Maryland for 5 yds to the LT 1Similar
Q4 3:04
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
99.8%
Preston Stone pass complete to Jordan Kerley for no gain to the LT 1Similar
Q4 2:32
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
100.0%
LJ Johnson Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD (Collin Rogers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 23TD
8 plays · 65 yds · 2:050% → 0%
Q4 2:31
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
100.0%
Hank Bachmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:22
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+3
100.0%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Keith Willis Jr. for 3 yds to the LT 38Similar
Q4 1:52
3RD & 7
OWN 38
+17
100.0%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Matthew McCallister for 17 yds to the SMU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:28
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
100.0%
Hank Bachmeier run for 2 yds to the SMU 43Similar
Q4 1:07
2ND & 8
OPP 43
+4
100.0%
Keith Willis Jr. run for 4 yds to the SMU 39Similar
Q4 0:47
3RD & 4
OPP 39
+37
100.0%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Julien Lewis for 37 yds to the SMU 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
100.0%
Hank Bachmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:26
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
99.7%
Keith Willis Jr. run for 2 yds for a TD (Jacob Barnes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 24END OF GAME
1 play · 4 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
99.8%
Zane Minors run for 4 yds to the SMU 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 13:52
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Koby Duru for 53 yds for a TD (Jacob Barnes KICK)
-3.5
TD · Q1 4:17
Preston Stone pass complete to Jordan Hudson for 67 yds for a TD (Collin Rogers KICK)
+2.1
TD · Q2 0:02
Preston Stone pass complete to RJ Maryland for 25 yds for a TD (Collin Rogers KICK)
+2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com