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FRES

Fresno State 39 at Purdue 35

PUR
2023 · Week 1 · Sep 2, 2023 · Ross-Ade Stadium
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Win probability · PUR
modelPUR aheadFRES aheadconfidence bandkey playPUR scoreFRES score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 4:28 · Jack Ansell punt for 49 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+30.0+15.00−15.0−30.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 111Home team on offense+17.5Pregame prior+5.5Score differential+8.5Garbage-time factor+7.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 7:26: Mikey Keene pass complete to Erik Brooks for 29 yds for a TD (Dylan Lynch KICK) — FRES win probability +2.8 pts (now 35%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 14:57: Tyrone Tracy Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD (Ben Freehill KICK) — PUR win probability +3.8 pts (now 71%) (top driver: PUR has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 12:29: Mikey Keene pass complete to Jalen Moss for 8 yds for a TD Fresno State Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Jalen Moss) to the PUR 0 (Dylan Lynch KICK) — FRES win probability +6.7 pts (now 39%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 9:05: Hudson Card pass complete to Deion Burks for 17 yds for a TD (Ben Freehill KICK) — PUR win probability +5.7 pts (now 73%) (top driver: PUR has the ball).
  5. FG · Q2 0:00: Dylan Lynch 52 yd FG GOOD — FRES win probability +5.3 pts (now 35%) (top driver: Deficit intensified by the shrinking clock).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
PUR made the numbers' call on 8 of 9FRES made the numbers' call on 3 of 5
  1. Q1 12:55FRES 4th & 2 at PUR 47, tied
    Close callPunted · 34.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.5%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:44FRES 4th & 2 at FRES 33, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.2%−<0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.2%
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:48PUR 4th & 10 at PUR 18, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.6%−0.2
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.8%
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:08PUR 4th & 9 at PUR 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.4%−0.3
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.6%
    average punt
  5. Q1 3:58FRES 4th & 19 at FRES 6, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.9%−1.0
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.8%
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:57FRES 4th & 3 at PUR 3, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 29.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.8%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    29.0%−0.8
    93% to make
    Punt
    22.3%−7.4
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:22PUR 4th & 14 at PUR 16, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.0%−3.6
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.7%
    average punt
  8. Q3 13:45FRES 4th & 8 at FRES 27, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.9%−0.7
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.6%
    average punt
  9. Q3 10:43PUR 4th & 3 at FRES 26, up 13
    Close callKicked a field goal · 84.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    83.9%−0.6
    64% to make
    Punt
    79.2%−5.4
    average punt
  10. Q3 6:35PUR 4th & 1 at PUR 24, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 85.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    86.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    85.4%−0.9
    average punt
  11. Q3 4:28PUR 4th & 10 at PUR 36, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.3%−1.7
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.9%
    average punt
  12. Q4 13:44PUR 4th & 1 at FRES 36, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 92.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    92.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    89.7%−2.6
    42% to make
    Punt
    89.3%−3.0
    average punt
  13. Q4 8:13PUR 4th & 1 at FRES 1, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 94.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    94.2%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    92.4%−1.8
    94% to make
    Punt
    87.8%−6.4
    average punt
  14. Q4 0:31PUR 4th & 2 at PUR 44, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 97.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    97.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    97.6%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
PUR made the numbers' call on 3 of 3FRES made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 11:40PUR Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 7:26FRES Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    34.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    34.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 14:57PUR Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 12:29FRES Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    35.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    35.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 9:05PUR Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
FRESDrive 1PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:5233% → 33%
Q1 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+8
66.9%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Tre Watson for 8 yds to the PUR 47Similar
Q1 14:47
2ND & 2
OPP 47
0
66.9%
Malik Sherrod run for no gain to the PUR 47Similar
Q1 14:47
3RD & 2
OPP 47
0
66.9%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Jalen Moss for no gain to the PUR 47Similar
Q1 12:55
4TH & 2
OPP 47
0
66.6%
Carson King punt for 39 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 2TD
3 plays · 92 yds · 1:1567% → 68%
Q1 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+6
66.7%
Hudson Card pass complete to Devin Mockobee for 6 yds to the PUR 14Similar
Q1 12:55
2ND & 4
OWN 14
+2
66.8%
Devin Mockobee run for 2 yds to the PUR 16 Devin Mockobee fumbled, recovered by PURSimilar
Q1 11:40
3RD & 2
OWN 16
+84
67.6%
Deion Burks 84 Yd pass from Hudson Card (Ben Freehill Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:5632% → 32%
Q1 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
67.7%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:40
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+8
67.7%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Jaelen Gill for 8 yds to the FRES 33Similar
Q1 11:40
3RD & 2
OWN 33
0
67.6%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:44
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
67.9%
Carson King punt for 49 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:5668% → 68%
Q1 10:44
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
68.0%
Hudson Card pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:44
2ND & 10
OWN 18
0
68.0%
Hudson Card run for no gain to the PUR 18Similar
Q1 10:44
3RD & 10
OWN 18
0
67.8%
Hudson Card pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:48
4TH & 10
OWN 18
0
67.9%
Jack Ansell punt for 37 yds, downed at the FRES 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 5TD
6 plays · 55 yds · 2:2232% → 35%
Q1 9:48
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+6
67.7%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Mac Dalena for 6 yds to the PUR 49Similar
Q1 9:48
2ND & 4
OPP 49
+5
67.6%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Tre Watson for 5 yds to the PUR 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:48
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
67.6%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:48
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+3
67.6%
Malik Sherrod run for 3 yds to the PUR 41Similar
Q1 9:48
3RD & 7
OPP 41
+12
67.6%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Jake Boust for 12 yds to the PUR 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:26
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+29
64.9%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Erik Brooks for 29 yds for a TD (Dylan Lynch KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 17 yds · 1:1866% → 66%
Q1 7:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
66.0%
Hudson Card pass complete to Max Klare for 16 yds to the PUR 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:26
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
66.5%
Hudson Card pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:26
2ND & 10
OWN 41
0
66.3%
Hudson Card pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:26
3RD & 10
OWN 41
-5
66.0%
Purdue Penalty, Illegal Snap on JOHNSON, Austin enforced (-5 Yards) to the PUR 36Similar
Q1 7:26
3RD & 15
OWN 36
+6
65.7%
Hudson Card pass complete to TJ Sheffield for 6 yds to the PUR 42Similar
Q1 6:08
4TH & 9
OWN 42
0
65.5%
Jack Ansell punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Erik Brooks at the FRES 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · -9 yds · 2:1034% → 34%
Q1 6:08
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+2
65.8%
Malik Sherrod run for 2 yds to the FRES 17Similar
Q1 6:08
2ND & 8
OWN 17
-3
65.8%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Jaelen Gill for a loss of 3 yards to the FRES 14Similar
Q1 6:08
3RD & 11
OWN 14
-8
66.1%
Mikey Keene sacked by Kydran Jenkins for a loss of 8 yards to the FRES 6Similar
Q1 3:58
4TH & 19
OWN 6
0
66.3%
Carson King punt for 40 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 8TD
10 plays · 17 yds · 4:0167% → 71%
Q1 3:58
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+3
67.0%
Dylan Downing run for 3 yds to the FRES 14Similar
Q1 3:58
2ND & 7
OPP 14
+2
67.0%
Dylan Downing run for 2 yds to the FRES 12Similar
Q1 3:58
3RD & 5
OPP 12
+10
66.6%
Hudson Card pass complete to Abdur-Rahmaan Yaseen for 10 yds to the FRES 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
67.0%
Devin Mockobee run for 1 yd to the FRES 1Similar
Q1 3:58
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
67.0%
TRACY JR., Tyrone rush up the middle for no gain, TRACY JR., Tyrone fumbled at FSU1 , recovered by PUR CARD, Hudson at the FSU1, returned 0 yards to the FSU1, End of Play. PENALTY FSU Offsides on BLOUNT, Tanner enforced half the distance from the goal, 0 yards from the FSU1 to the FSU1 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 3:58
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
67.0%
Devin Mockobee run for a loss of 1 yard to the FRES 2Similar
Q1 3:58
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
0
66.6%
CARD, Hudson pass short to the left incomplete intended for BURKS, Deion thrown to the FSU0. PENALTY FSU Pass Interference on HAMILTON, Al'zillion enforced half the distance from the goal, 1 yards to the FSU1 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 3:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
67.0%
Hudson Card run for no gain to the FRES 1Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
67.1%
Tyrone Tracy Jr. run for no gain to the FRES 1Similar
Q2 14:57
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
70.9%
Tyrone Tracy Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD (Ben Freehill KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 9TD
6 plays · 60 yds · 2:2830% → 39%
Q2 14:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
69.7%
Malik Sherrod run for 7 yds to the FRES 32Similar
Q2 14:57
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+49
68.9%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Erik Brooks for 49 yds to the PUR 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:57
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+8
67.6%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Artis Cole for 8 yds to the PUR 11Similar
Q2 14:57
2ND & 2
OPP 11
0
67.6%
Devon Rivers run for no gain to the PUR 11Similar
Q2 14:57
3RD & 2
OPP 11
+3
68.3%
Elijah Gilliam run for 3 yds to the PUR 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
61.5%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Jalen Moss for 8 yds for a TD Fresno State Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Jalen Moss) to the PUR 0 (Dylan Lynch KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 10TD
7 plays · 59 yds · 3:2066% → 73%
Q2 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+15
66.1%
CARD, Hudson pass deep to the right incomplete intended for BURKS, Deion thrown to the FSU30. PENALTY FSU Pass Interference on NORRIS JR., Morice enforced 15 yards to the FSU44 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 12:25
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+1
66.8%
Devin Mockobee run for 1 yd to the FRES 43Similar
Q2 12:25
2ND & 9
OPP 43
+18
66.7%
Hudson Card pass complete to Abdur-Rahmaan Yaseen for 18 yds to the FRES 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:25
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+4
67.1%
Dylan Downing run for 4 yds to the FRES 21Similar
Q2 12:25
2ND & 6
OPP 21
+8
67.1%
Dylan Downing run for 8 yds to the FRES 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:25
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-4
67.1%
Hudson Card pass complete to Tyrone Tracy Jr. for a loss of 4 yards to the FRES 17Similar
Q2 9:05
2ND & 14
OPP 17
+17
72.8%
Hudson Card pass complete to Deion Burks for 17 yds for a TD (Ben Freehill KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 11MISSED FG
18 plays · 72 yds · 8:0829% → 29%
Q2 9:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
71.0%
Malik Sherrod run for no gain to the FRES 25Similar
Q2 9:05
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
71.1%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Erik Brooks for 7 yds to the FRES 32Similar
Q2 9:05
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+8
70.9%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Erik Brooks for 8 yds to the FRES 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:05
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
70.0%
Malik Sherrod run for 1 yd to the FRES 41Similar
Q2 9:05
2ND & 9
OWN 41
+8
70.2%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Jalen Moss for 8 yds to the FRES 49Similar
Q2 9:05
3RD & 1
OWN 49
+1
69.4%
Elijah Gilliam run for 1 yd to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:05
3RD & 13
OWN 47
+14
71.1%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Elijah Gilliam for 14 yds to the PUR 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:05
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-4
69.1%
Mikey Keene sacked by OC Brothers for a loss of 4 yards to the PUR 43Similar
Q2 9:05
2ND & 14
OPP 43
+4
70.2%
Elijah Gilliam run for 4 yds to the PUR 39Similar
Q2 9:05
3RD & 10
OPP 39
+19
70.0%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Erik Brooks for 19 yds to the PUR 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:05
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+14
68.0%
Elijah Gilliam run for 14 yds to the PUR 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
68.0%
Elijah Gilliam run for 1 yd to the PUR 5Similar
Q2 9:05
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
68.0%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Malik Sherrod for 2 yds to the PUR 3Similar
Q2 9:05
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
69.0%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:05
1ST & 10
50
0
69.1%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:05
2ND & 10
50
+7
69.7%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Jaelen Gill for 7 yds to the PUR 43Similar
Q2 9:05
3RD & 3
OPP 43
-10
69.3%
KEENE, Mikey pass short to the right incomplete thrown to the PUR40. PENALTY FSU Holding on SPOMER, Jacob enforced 10 yards from the PUR43 to the FSU47 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 0:57
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+20
70.7%
Dylan Lynch 20 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 0:3574% → 73%
Q2 0:57
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
73.7%
Hudson Card run for no gain to the PUR 20Similar
Q2 0:57
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
73.6%
Hudson Card pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:30
3RD & 10
OWN 20
-4
73.6%
Devin Mockobee run for a loss of 4 yards to the PUR 16Similar
Q2 0:22
4TH & 14
OWN 16
0
72.8%
Jack Ansell punt for 37 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 13FG
5 plays · 20 yds · 0:2228% → 35%
Q2 0:22
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+15
71.8%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Tre Watson for 15 yds to the PUR 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:22
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
70.8%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:03
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+5
70.5%
Logan Fife pass complete to Erik Brooks for 5 yds to the PUR 33Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 5
OPP 33
+52
65.2%
Dylan Lynch 52 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:0419% → 18%
Q3 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
81.3%
Devon Rivers run for 2 yds to the FRES 27Similar
Q3 14:49
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
81.1%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:49
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
81.6%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:45
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
82.4%
Carson King punt for 33 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 15MISSED FG
7 plays · 34 yds · 3:0285% → 85%
Q3 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+7
84.7%
Devin Mockobee run for 7 yds to the PUR 47Similar
Q3 13:45
2ND & 3
OWN 47
+7
84.8%
Devin Mockobee run for 7 yds to the FRES 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:45
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+13
84.8%
Hudson Card run for 13 yds to the FRES 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:45
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+4
84.8%
Devin Mockobee run for 4 yds to the FRES 29Similar
Q3 13:45
2ND & 6
OPP 29
-2
84.8%
Devin Mockobee run for a loss of 2 yards to the FRES 31Similar
Q3 13:45
3RD & 8
OPP 31
+5
84.2%
Hudson Card pass complete to TJ Sheffield for 5 yds to the FRES 26Similar
Q3 10:43
4TH & 3
OPP 26
+43
84.9%
Ben Freehill 43 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 16TD
9 plays · 74 yds · 3:5916% → 16%
Q3 10:43
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
84.5%
Devon Rivers run for 3 yds to the FRES 29Similar
Q3 10:43
2ND & 7
OWN 29
+14
83.8%
Devon Rivers run for 14 yds to the FRES 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:43
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+14
83.3%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Jalen Moss for 14 yds to the PUR 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:43
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
82.6%
Elijah Gilliam run for no gain to the PUR 43Similar
Q3 10:43
2ND & 10
OPP 43
0
82.9%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:43
3RD & 10
OPP 43
+24
83.3%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Erik Brooks for 24 yds to the PUR 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:43
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
81.4%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:43
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+1
81.7%
Elijah Gilliam run for 1 yd to the PUR 18Similar
Q3 6:44
3RD & 9
OPP 18
+18
84.1%
M. Keene pass to J. Gill for 18 yds for a TD (M. Keene pass to J. Moss for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 17PUNT
9 plays · 21 yds · 2:0787% → 88%
Q3 6:35
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+4
87.2%
Hudson Card pass complete to Devin Mockobee for 4 yds to the PUR 19Similar
Q3 6:35
2ND & 6
OWN 19
+5
87.2%
Hudson Card pass complete to Abdur-Rahmaan Yaseen for 5 yds to the PUR 24Similar
Q3 6:35
3RD & 1
OWN 24
0
86.8%
Devin Mockobee run for no gain to the PUR 24Similar
Q3 6:35
4TH & 1
OWN 24
+2
86.1%
Tyrone Tracy Jr. run for 2 yds to the PUR 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:35
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+10
87.3%
CARD, Hudson pass to the right incomplete intended for YASEEN, Abdur-Rahmaan thrown to the PUR40. PENALTY FSU Holding on LOCKRIDGE, Cameron enforced 10 yards from the PUR26 to the PUR36 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 6:35
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
87.4%
Hudson Card pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:35
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
87.3%
Hudson Card pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:35
3RD & 10
OWN 36
0
86.9%
Hudson Card pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:28
4TH & 10
OWN 36
0
88.1%
Jack Ansell punt for 49 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 18TD
14 plays · 85 yds · 5:4413% → 12%
Q3 4:28
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+3
87.1%
Malik Sherrod run for 3 yds to the FRES 18Similar
Q3 4:28
2ND & 7
OWN 18
+12
87.1%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Tre Watson for 12 yds to the FRES 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:28
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
86.3%
Elijah Gilliam run for no gain to the FRES 30Similar
Q3 4:28
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+5
87.0%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Jaelen Gill for 5 yds to the FRES 35Similar
Q3 4:28
3RD & 5
OWN 35
+15
86.4%
Purdue Penalty, Roughing the Passer on SCOURTON, Nic enforced (Nic Scourton) to the PUR 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:28
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+6
84.9%
Elijah Gilliam run for 6 yds to the PUR 37Similar
Q3 4:28
2ND & 4
OPP 37
+5
84.6%
Elijah Gilliam run for 5 yds to the PUR 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:28
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
84.0%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:28
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+12
84.1%
Elijah Gilliam run for 12 yds to the PUR 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:28
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
83.7%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+17
86.6%
Elijah Gilliam run for 17 yds to the PUR 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
86.3%
Elijah Gilliam run for 2 yds to the PUR 1Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
86.3%
Elijah Gilliam run for no gain to the PUR 1Similar
Q4 13:44
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
87.8%
Malik Sherrod run for 1 yd for a TD (Dylan Lynch KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 19DOWNS
14 plays · 74 yds · 5:3193% → 96%
Q4 13:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
92.7%
Hudson Card pass complete to Max Klare for 6 yds to the PUR 31Similar
Q4 13:44
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+11
92.9%
Devin Mockobee run for 11 yds to the PUR 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:44
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+13
93.2%
Hudson Card pass complete to Abdur-Rahmaan Yaseen for 13 yds to the FRES 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:44
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+8
93.3%
Hudson Card run for 8 yds to the FRES 37Similar
Q4 13:44
2ND & 2
OPP 37
+1
93.3%
Devin Mockobee run for 1 yd to the FRES 36Similar
Q4 13:44
3RD & 1
OPP 36
0
93.1%
Dylan Downing run for no gain to the FRES 36Similar
Q4 13:44
4TH & 1
OPP 36
+7
92.4%
Hudson Card pass complete to Deion Burks for 7 yds to the FRES 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:33
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
95.3%
Hudson Card pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:33
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+20
95.3%
Devin Mockobee run for 20 yds to the FRES 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
95.3%
Devin Mockobee run for 2 yds to the FRES 7Similar
Q4 10:33
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+6
95.3%
Hudson Card pass complete to Devin Mockobee for 6 yds to the FRES 1Similar
Q4 10:33
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
95.2%
Hudson Card pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:13
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
0
95.7%
Devin Mockobee run for no gain to the FRES 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 20INT
5 plays · 26 yds · 2:568% → 6%
Q4 8:13
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+2
92.5%
Mikey Keene run for 2 yds to the FRES 3Similar
Q4 8:13
2ND & 8
OWN 3
+22
92.5%
Elijah Gilliam run for 22 yds to the FRES 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
92.4%
Elijah Gilliam run for 2 yds to the FRES 27Similar
Q4 8:13
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
91.9%
Elijah Gilliam run for no gain to the FRES 27Similar
Q4 5:17
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
94.0%
Mikey Keene pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 21TD
2 plays · 55 yds · 0:4197% → 97%
Q4 5:17
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+44
96.9%
Hudson Card pass complete to Deion Burks for 44 yds to the FRES 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:36
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
97.3%
Devin Mockobee run for 11 yds for a TD (Ben Freehill KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 22TD
10 plays · 79 yds · 3:316% → 4%
Q4 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+1
94.1%
Elijah Gilliam run for 1 yd to the FRES 22Similar
Q4 4:30
2ND & 9
OWN 22
+16
94.1%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Mac Dalena for 16 yds to the FRES 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+8
93.0%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Jalen Moss for 8 yds to the FRES 46Similar
Q4 4:30
2ND & 2
OWN 46
-1
92.7%
Elijah Gilliam run for a loss of 1 yard to the FRES 45Similar
Q4 4:30
3RD & 3
OWN 45
+6
92.9%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Jaelen Gill for 6 yds to the PUR 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:30
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+14
92.7%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Jaelen Gill for 14 yds to the PUR 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:30
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+10
92.4%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Jaelen Gill for 10 yds to the PUR 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:04
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
96.4%
Elijah Gilliam run for 3 yds to the PUR 22Similar
Q4 0:59
2ND & 7
OPP 22
+22
96.4%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Erik Brooks for 22 yds for a TD (Dylan Lynch KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 23DOWNS
6 plays · 19 yds · 0:2899% → 99%
Q4 0:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
98.5%
Hudson Card pass complete to TJ Sheffield for 11 yds to the PUR 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:59
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
98.5%
Hudson Card pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:59
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
98.5%
Hudson Card pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:35
3RD & 10
OWN 36
+8
98.5%
Hudson Card run for 8 yds to the PUR 44Similar
Q4 0:31
4TH & 2
OWN 44
0
98.5%
Hudson Card pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 24END OF GAME
3 plays · -3 yds · 0:143% → 3%
Q4 0:14
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
97.2%
[NH] Kneel down by KEENE, Mikey at PUR45 (team loss of 1).Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 11
OPP 45
0
97.4%
[NH] Kneel down by KEENE, Mikey at PUR47 (team loss of 2), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-97.4
TD · Q2 12:29
Mikey Keene pass complete to Jalen Moss for 8 yds for a TD Fresno State Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Jalen Moss) to the PUR 0 (Dylan Lynch KICK)
-6.7
TD · Q2 9:05
Hudson Card pass complete to Deion Burks for 17 yds for a TD (Ben Freehill KICK)
+5.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com