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MER

Mercer 7 at Ole Miss 73

MISS
2023 · Week 1 · Sep 2, 2023 · Vaught-Hemingway Stadium
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Win probability · MISS
modelMISS aheadMER aheadconfidence bandkey playMISS scoreMER score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of GameTD+0.2MISS 99.7%Ian Garcia punt for 31 yds, JordanWatkins 70 Yd Punt Return (Caden CostaKick)AWAY 7 - HOME 45 · Q3 13:07
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 13:07 · Ian Garcia punt for 31 yds, Jordan Watkins 70 Yd Punt Return (Caden Costa Kick)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factor
+48.0+24.00−24.0−48.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 95Pregame prior+31.7Home team on offense+29.6Score differential+22.4Blowout margin+11.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+5.0Garbage-time factor+7.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 14:05: Jaxson Dart pass complete to Tre Harris for 38 yds for a TD (Caden Davis KICK) — MER win probability +0.1 pts (now 3%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 13:53: Carter Peevy run for 75 yds for a TD (Reice Griffith KICK) — MER win probability +0.1 pts (now 3%) (top driver: MER has the ball).
  3. TD · Q1 5:45: Quinshon Judkins run for 1 yd for a TD (Caden Costa KICK) — MISS win probability +0.3 pts (now 98%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 0:32: Quinshon Judkins 3 Yd Run (Caden Davis Kick) — MISS win probability +0.8 pts (now 100%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 13:07: Ian Garcia punt for 31 yds, Jordan Watkins 70 Yd Punt Return (Caden Costa Kick) — MISS win probability +0.2 pts (now 100%) (top driver: MER has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MISS made the numbers' call on 2 of 3MER made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 7:55MER 4th & 18 at MER 36, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.6%−0.2
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 3:34MER 4th & 12 at MER 33, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.1%−0.2
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.3%
    average punt
  3. Q2 12:08MER 4th & 1 at MER 49, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.9%−0.3
    average punt
  4. Q2 6:25MISS 4th & 13 at MER 13, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 98.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.8%−0.3
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    98.0%
    85% to make
    Punt
    97.0%−1.0
    average punt
  5. Q2 3:05MER 4th & 4 at MER 41, down 24
    Close callPunted · 2.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.9%−0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 3:05MISS 4th & 2 at MER 37, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    98.1%−0.2
    40% to make
    Punt
    98.0%−0.3
    average punt
  7. Q3 13:07MER 4th & 8 at MER 39, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.3%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
  8. Q3 8:08MER 4th & 4 at MER 31, down 45
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
  9. Q3 4:34MER 4th & 7 at MER 28, down 52
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  10. Q4 12:00MER 4th & 26 at MISS 45, down 59
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    -0.1%−0.1
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    0.0%−0.1
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  11. Q4 10:48MISS 4th & 4 at MISS 26, up 59
    Close callPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  12. Q4 8:46MER 4th & 10 at MISS 35, down 59
    Close callWent for it · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.0%−<0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    0.0%
    45% to make
    Punt
    0.0%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MISS made the numbers' call on 10 of 10MER made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 14:05MISS Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 13:53MER Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    2.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    2.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 12:26MISS Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 11:45MISS Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q1 5:45MISS Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 0:32MISS Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 13:07MISS Touchdown, up 37 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 9:45MISS Touchdown, up 44 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 5:27MISS Touchdown, up 51 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q3 3:09MISS Touchdown, up 58 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 3:21MISS Touchdown, up 65 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MISSDrive 1TD
3 plays · 72 yds · 0:5198% → 98%
Q1 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+28
97.6%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jordan Watkins for 28 yds to the MER 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+6
97.6%
Quinshon Judkins run for 6 yds to the MER 38Similar
Q1 14:05
2ND & 4
OPP 38
+38
97.5%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Tre Harris for 38 yds for a TD (Caden Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MERDrive 2TD
1 play · 75 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q1 13:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
97.5%
Carter Peevy run for 75 yds for a TD (Reice Griffith KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 3TD
5 plays · 69 yds · 1:2198% → 97%
Q1 13:47
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+6
97.5%
Jaxson Dart run for 6 yds to the MISS 37Similar
Q1 13:47
2ND & 4
OWN 37
+3
97.5%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Quinshon Judkins for 3 yds to the MISS 40Similar
Q1 13:47
3RD & 1
OWN 40
+9
97.5%
Quinshon Judkins run for 9 yds to the MISS 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:47
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+23
97.5%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Dayton Wade for 23 yds to the MER 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:26
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+28
97.4%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Tre Harris for 28 yds for a TD (Caden Costa KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 4TD
2 plays · 20 yds · 0:3497% → 98%
Q1 12:19
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
97.4%
Quinshon Judkins run for no gain to the MER 20Similar
Q1 11:45
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+20
97.5%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Tre Harris for 20 yds for a TD (Caden Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MERDrive 5PUNT
9 plays · 19 yds · 3:453% → 3%
Q1 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+9
97.4%
Carter Peevy pass complete to Travion Solomon for 9 yds to the MER 26Similar
Q1 11:40
2ND & 1
OWN 26
0
97.4%
Carter Peevy pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:40
3RD & 1
OWN 26
+5
97.4%
QB Keeper PEEVY, Carter rush up the middle for no gain to the MER26 (CISTRUNK, Ashanti). PENALTY MISS Offsides on UKWU, Isaac enforced 5 yards from the MER26 to the MER31 and results in a 1ST DOWN [NH]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+8
97.4%
Carter Peevy pass complete to Parker Wroble for 8 yds to the MER 39Similar
Q1 11:40
2ND & 2
OWN 39
+5
97.4%
Carter Peevy pass complete to Travion Solomon for 5 yds to the MER 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
97.4%
Carter Peevy run for 2 yds to the MER 46Similar
Q1 11:40
2ND & 8
OWN 46
0
97.4%
Devron Harper run for no gain to the MER 46Similar
Q1 11:40
3RD & 8
OWN 46
0
97.4%
Mercer Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Carter Peevy) to the MER 36Similar
Q1 7:55
4TH & 18
OWN 36
0
97.2%
Ian Garcia punt for 41 yds, downed at the MISS 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 6TD
7 plays · 77 yds · 2:1097% → 98%
Q1 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+20
97.3%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Kyirin Heath for 20 yds to the MISS 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+7
97.3%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Kyirin Heath for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 7:55
2ND & 3
50
+6
97.3%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jordan Watkins for 6 yds to the MER 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:55
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+34
97.3%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jordan Watkins for 34 yds to the MER 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+9
97.3%
Quinshon Judkins run for 9 yds to the MER 1Similar
Q1 7:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
97.3%
Quinshon Judkins run for no gain to the MER 1Similar
Q1 5:45
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
97.6%
Quinshon Judkins run for 1 yd for a TD (Caden Costa KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MERDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 2:112% → 2%
Q1 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
97.6%
Parker Wroble run for 1 yd to the MER 26Similar
Q1 5:45
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+9
97.6%
Carter Peevy pass complete to Devron Harper for 9 yds to the MER 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
97.6%
Carter Peevy pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:45
2ND & 10
OWN 35
-2
97.6%
Micah Bell run for a loss of 2 yards to the MER 33Similar
Q1 5:45
3RD & 12
OWN 33
0
97.6%
Carter Peevy pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:34
4TH & 12
OWN 33
0
97.7%
Ian Garcia punt for 34 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 8FUMBLE
6 plays · 60 yds · 2:1598% → 98%
Q1 3:34
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-10
97.5%
Ole Miss Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the MISS 30Similar
Q1 3:34
1ST & 13
OWN 30
+30
97.5%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jordan Watkins for 30 yds to the MER 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:34
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+15
97.7%
DART, Jaxson pass deep to the right incomplete intended for WILLIAMS, Ayden thrown to the MER9. PENALTY MER Pass Interference on MCCARTHY, Tavion enforced 15 yards to the MER25 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 3:34
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+5
97.7%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 5 yds to the MER 20Similar
Q1 3:34
2ND & 5
OPP 20
+11
97.7%
Jaxson Dart run for 11 yds to the MER 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
97.7%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 2 yds to the MER 7 fumbled, recovered by MER Chris HillSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MERDrive 9FUMBLE
17 plays · 26 yds · 7:032% → 2%
Q1 1:19
1ST & 10
OWN 7
0
97.8%
Carter Peevy pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:19
2ND & 10
OWN 7
+7
97.8%
Carter Peevy pass complete to Parker Wroble for 7 yds to the MER 14Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 3
OWN 14
+5
97.8%
Carter Peevy pass complete to Scooter Risper for 5 yds to the MER 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+1
97.8%
Parker Wroble run for 1 yd to the MER 20Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 20
+20
97.8%
Carter Peevy pass complete to Devron Harper for 20 yds to the MER 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
97.7%
Al Wooten II run for 5 yds to the MER 45Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 45
+4
97.7%
Micah Bell run for 4 yds to the MER 49Similar
Q2 12:08
3RD & 1
OWN 49
0
97.9%
Carter Peevy pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:08
4TH & 1
OWN 49
+3
97.9%
Carter Peevy run for 3 yds to the MISS 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:08
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
97.8%
Al Wooten II run for 5 yds to the MISS 43Similar
Q2 12:08
2ND & 5
OPP 43
+5
97.8%
Carter Peevy pass complete to Ty James for 5 yds to the MISS 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:08
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-15
97.8%
BELL, Micah rush up the middle for a gain of 5 yards to the OLE33 (MONTGOMERY, Monty;PERKINS, Suntarine). PENALTY MER Chop Block on JOHNSON, Matthew enforced 15 yards from the OLE38 to the MER47 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 12:08
1ST & 25
OWN 47
-5
97.9%
Micah Bell run for a loss of 5 yards to the MER 42Similar
Q2 12:08
2ND & 30
OWN 42
0
98.0%
Carter Peevy pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:08
3RD & 30
OWN 42
-5
98.0%
Mercer Penalty, False Start (Lance Wise) to the MER 37Similar
Q2 9:16
3RD & 35
OWN 37
-4
98.0%
run for a loss of 4 yards to the MER 33 fumbled, recovered by MISS Reginald HughesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 10FG
11 plays · 20 yds · 2:5198% → 98%
Q2 9:16
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
98.3%
Jaxson Dart pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:16
2ND & 10
OPP 33
0
98.3%
Jaxson Dart pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:16
3RD & 10
OPP 33
+11
98.3%
Jaxson Dart run for 11 yds to the MER 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:16
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+4
98.3%
Quinshon Judkins run for 4 yds to the MER 18Similar
Q2 9:16
2ND & 6
OPP 18
+8
98.3%
Quinshon Judkins run for 8 yds to the MER 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-1
98.3%
Quinshon Judkins run for a loss of 1 yard to the MER 11Similar
Q2 7:03
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
0
98.4%
Jaxson Dart pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:03
3RD & GOAL
OPP 11
-10
98.3%
QB Keeper DART, Jaxson rush up the middle for a gain of 10 yards to the MER1 (COFFEY, Richie). PENALTY OLE Holding on PETTUS, Micah enforced 10 yards from the MER11 to the MER21 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 7:03
3RD & GOAL
OPP 21
+8
98.3%
Jaxson Dart run for 8 yds to the MER 13Similar
Q2 6:25
4TH & GOAL
OPP 13
+31
98.4%
Caden Davis 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MERDrive 11PUNT
9 plays · 16 yds · 3:202% → 2%
Q2 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
98.0%
Mercer Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MER 20Similar
Q2 6:25
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+12
98.0%
Carter Peevy pass complete to Devron Harper for 12 yds to the MER 32Similar
Q2 6:25
2ND & 3
OWN 32
0
97.9%
Micah Bell run for no gain to the MER 32Similar
Q2 6:25
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+3
97.9%
Carter Peevy pass complete to Parker Wroble for 3 yds to the MER 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
97.9%
Carter Peevy pass complete to Devron Harper for 6 yds to the MER 41Similar
Q2 6:25
2ND & 4
OWN 41
-1
97.8%
Al Wooten II run for a loss of 1 yard to the MER 40Similar
Q2 3:14
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+1
97.9%
Micah Bell run for 1 yd to the MER 41Similar
Q2 3:05
4TH & 4
OWN 41
0
97.9%
Ian Garcia punt for 42 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 12TD
11 plays · 84 yds · 2:3399% → 100%
Q2 3:05
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+3
98.5%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jordan Watkins for 3 yds to the MISS 19Similar
Q2 3:05
2ND & 7
OWN 19
+18
98.5%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Hudson Wolfe for 18 yds to the MISS 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:05
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+9
98.5%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Tre Harris for 9 yds to the MISS 46Similar
Q2 3:05
2ND & 1
OWN 46
+9
98.6%
Quinshon Judkins run for 9 yds to the MER 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:05
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
98.6%
Jaxson Dart pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:05
2ND & 10
OPP 45
0
98.6%
Jaxson Dart pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:05
3RD & 10
OPP 45
+8
98.5%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Quinshon Judkins for 8 yds to the MER 37Similar
Q2 3:05
4TH & 2
OPP 37
+13
98.4%
Quinshon Judkins run for 13 yds to the MER 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:33
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+21
98.7%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Kyirin Heath for 21 yds to the MER 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
99.5%
Quinshon Judkins 3 Yd Run (Caden Davis Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MERDrive 13END OF HALF
1 play · -2 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.7%
Kneel down by PEEVY, Carter at MER23 (team loss of 2), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MERDrive 14PUNT TD
7 plays · 14 yds · 1:531% → 0%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.5%
Carter Peevy pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
99.5%
PEEVY, Carter pass short to the left incomplete intended for JAMES, Ty broken up by PRINCE, Deantre at the MER29. PENALTY Before the snap, OLE Illegal Substitution enforced 5 yards from the MER25 to the MER30. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+7
99.5%
Al Wooten II run for 7 yds to the MER 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
99.5%
Carter Peevy pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+2
99.5%
Micah Bell run for 2 yds to the MER 39Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 39
0
99.5%
Carter Peevy pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:07
4TH & 8
OWN 39
+70
99.7%
Ian Garcia punt for 31 yds, Jordan Watkins 70 Yd Punt Return (Caden Costa Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MERDrive 15INT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:590% → 0%
Q3 12:59
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+7
99.7%
Carter Peevy pass complete to Ty James for 7 yds to the MER 38Similar
Q3 12:59
2ND & 3
OWN 38
+5
99.7%
Al Wooten II run for 5 yds to the MER 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:59
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-3
99.7%
Micah Bell run for a loss of 3 yards to the MER 40Similar
Q3 11:00
2ND & 13
OWN 40
0
99.7%
Carter Peevy pass intercepted by Daijahn Anthony at MER 46, return for 19 yds to the MER 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 16TD
4 plays · 27 yds · 1:07100% → 100%
Q3 10:52
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-10
99.8%
DART, Jaxson pass deep to the right complete for 27 yards to WATKINS, Jordan caught at the MER0 and advanced to the MER0, TOUCHDOWN OLE, score nullified by penalty, clock 10:52 (Play was confirmed after review). PENALTY OLE Holding on JAMES, Jeremy enforced 10 yards from the MER27 to the MER37 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 10:52
1ST & 20
OPP 37
+22
99.7%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Tre Harris for 22 yds to the MER 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:52
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-1
99.8%
Quinshon Judkins run for a loss of 1 yard to the MER 16Similar
Q3 9:45
2ND & 11
OPP 16
+16
99.8%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Tre Harris for 16 yds for a TD (Caden Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MERDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:370% → 0%
Q3 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.8%
Carter Peevy pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:45
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-7
99.8%
Carter Peevy sacked by Zxavian Harris for a loss of 7 yards to the MER 18Similar
Q3 9:45
3RD & 17
OWN 18
+13
99.8%
Carter Peevy pass complete to Ty James for 13 yds to the MER 31Similar
Q3 8:08
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
99.8%
Kody Arnold punt for 45 yds, downed at the MISS 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 18TD
10 plays · 76 yds · 2:41100% → 100%
Q3 8:08
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+8
99.8%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Michael Trigg for 8 yds to the MISS 32Similar
Q3 8:08
2ND & 2
OWN 32
0
99.8%
Spencer Sanders pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:08
3RD & 2
OWN 32
+5
99.8%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 5 yds to the MISS 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:08
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
99.8%
Spencer Sanders pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:08
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+5
99.8%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 5 yds to the MISS 42Similar
Q3 8:08
3RD & 5
OWN 42
+10
99.8%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Jordan Watkins for 10 yds to the MER 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:08
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+43
99.8%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Ayden Williams for 43 yds to the MER 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
99.8%
Spencer Sanders pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:08
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
-1
99.8%
Spencer Sanders run for a loss of 1 yard to the MER 6Similar
Q3 5:27
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
99.8%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Ulysses Bentley IV for 6 yds for a TD (Caden Costa KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MERDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:530% → 0%
Q3 5:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
99.9%
Al Wooten II run for 3 yds to the MER 28Similar
Q3 5:27
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
99.9%
Carter Peevy pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:27
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
99.9%
Carter Peevy pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:34
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
99.9%
Kody Arnold punt for 38 yds, downed at the MISS 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 20TD
6 plays · 66 yds · 1:25100% → 100%
Q3 4:34
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+20
99.8%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Michael Trigg for 20 yds to the MER 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:34
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+9
99.9%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Jalen Knox for 9 yds to the MER 37Similar
Q3 4:34
2ND & 1
OPP 37
0
99.9%
Spencer Sanders pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:34
3RD & 1
OPP 37
+3
99.9%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 3 yds to the MER 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:34
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
99.9%
Spencer Sanders pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:09
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+34
99.9%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Cayden Lee for 34 yds for a TD (Caden Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MERDrive 21PUNT
15 plays · 30 yds · 6:090% → 0%
Q3 3:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
99.9%
Devron Harper run for a loss of 4 yards to the MER 21Similar
Q3 3:09
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+19
99.9%
Carter Peevy pass complete to Brayden Smith for 19 yds to the MER 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:09
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
99.9%
Carter Peevy pass complete to Micah Bell for 6 yds to the MER 46Similar
Q3 3:09
2ND & 4
OWN 46
-5
99.9%
PEEVY, Carter pass up the middle complete for 10 yards to SMITH, Brayden caught at the OLE44 and advanced to the OLE44 (WILLIAMS, Demarko). PENALTY MER Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on THOMAS, John enforced 5 yards from the MER46 to the MER41 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 3:09
2ND & 9
OWN 41
+15
99.9%
Ole Miss Penalty, Roughing the Passer on BROWN, Jamarious enforced (15 Yards) to the MISS 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+8
100.0%
Al Wooten II run for 8 yds to the MISS 32Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 32
+1
99.9%
Micah Bell run for 1 yd to the MISS 31Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 31
+2
99.9%
Micah Bell run for 2 yds to the MISS 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:44
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-5
99.9%
Carter Peevy sacked by Suntarine Perkins for a loss of 5 yards to the MISS 34Similar
Q4 12:56
2ND & 15
OPP 34
-9
100.0%
Carter Peevy sacked by Akelo Stone for a loss of 9 yards to the MISS 43Similar
Q4 12:56
3RD & 24
OPP 43
+3
100.0%
Parker Wroble run for 3 yds to the MISS 40Similar
Q4 12:56
4TH & 21
OPP 40
-5
100.0%
Mercer Penalty, False Start (Myles Weston) to the MISS 45Similar
Q4 12:00
4TH & 26
OPP 45
0
100.0%
Kody Arnold punt for 25 yds to the OLE 20 out of boundsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:12100% → 100%
Q4 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
99.9%
Spencer Sanders run for 2 yds to the MISS 22Similar
Q4 12:00
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+4
99.9%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Ayden Williams for 4 yds to the MISS 26Similar
Q4 12:00
3RD & 4
OWN 26
0
99.9%
Spencer Sanders pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:48
4TH & 4
OWN 26
0
99.9%
Fraser Masin punt for 49 yds, Devron Harper return for 40 yds to the OLE 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MERDrive 23DOWNS
4 plays · 0 yds · 2:020% → 0%
Q4 10:48
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-5
100.0%
Micah Bell run for a loss of 5 yards to the MISS 40Similar
Q4 10:48
2ND & 15
OPP 40
+4
100.0%
Hess Horne pass complete to Al Wooten II for 4 yds to the MISS 36Similar
Q4 10:48
3RD & 11
OPP 36
+1
100.0%
Hess Horne run for 1 yd to the MISS 35 Hess Horne fumbled, recovered by MER Hess HorneSimilar
Q4 8:46
4TH & 10
OPP 35
0
100.0%
Hess Horne pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 24TD
13 plays · 65 yds · 5:25100% → 100%
Q4 8:46
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-3
100.0%
Jalen Knox run for a loss of 3 yards to the MISS 32Similar
Q4 8:46
2ND & 13
OWN 32
+11
100.0%
Matt Jones run for 11 yds to the MISS 43Similar
Q4 8:46
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+2
100.0%
Matt Jones run for 2 yds to the MISS 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:46
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
100.0%
Walker Howard pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:46
2ND & 10
OWN 45
-10
100.0%
JONES, Matt rush to the right for a gain of 2 yards to the OLE47 (CLARE, Drew;HILL, Chris). PENALTY OLE Holding on MELTON, Cedric enforced 10 yards from the OLE45 to the OLE35 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 8:46
2ND & 20
OWN 35
+29
100.0%
Walker Howard pass complete to Bralon Brown for 29 yds to the MER 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:46
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+6
100.0%
Jam Griffin run for 6 yds to the MER 30Similar
Q4 8:46
2ND & 4
OPP 30
+5
100.0%
Jam Griffin run for 5 yds to the MER 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:46
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-2
100.0%
Jam Griffin run for a loss of 2 yards to the MER 27Similar
Q4 8:46
2ND & 12
OPP 27
+16
100.0%
Walker Howard pass complete to Michael Trigg for 16 yds to the MER 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:46
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-1
100.0%
Matt Jones run for a loss of 1 yard to the MER 12Similar
Q4 8:46
2ND & 11
OPP 12
+11
100.0%
Walker Howard pass complete to JJ Henry for 11 yds to the MER 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
100.0%
Matt Jones run for 1 yd for a TD (Caden Costa KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MERDrive 25END OF GAME
5 plays · 21 yds · 3:210% → 0%
Q4 3:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
100.0%
Tyrell Coard run for 5 yds to the MER 30Similar
Q4 3:21
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+11
100.0%
Tyrell Coard run for 11 yds to the MER 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:21
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
100.0%
Tyrell Coard run for 2 yds to the MER 43Similar
Q4 3:21
2ND & 8
OWN 43
+5
100.0%
Tyrell Coard run for 5 yds to the MER 48Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 3
OWN 48
-2
100.0%
Tyrell Coard run for a loss of 2 yards to the MER 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:32
Quinshon Judkins 3 Yd Run (Caden Davis Kick)
+0.8
TD · Q1 5:45
Quinshon Judkins run for 1 yd for a TD (Caden Costa KICK)
+0.3
TD · Q3 13:07
Ian Garcia punt for 31 yds, Jordan Watkins 70 Yd Punt Return (Caden Costa Kick)
+0.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com