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WIU

Western Illinois 21 at New Mexico State 58

NMSU
2023 · Week 1 · Sep 2, 2023 · Aggie Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · NMSU
modelNMSU aheadWIU aheadconfidence bandkey playNMSU scoreWIU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 6:58 · Jared Campbell punt for 49 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+42.0+21.00−21.0−42.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 130Pregame prior+6.5Home team on offense+35.7Score differential+30.9Garbage-time factor+10.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+5.6Blowout margin+16.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 8:42: Matt Morrissey pass complete to Jaylin Jackson for 5 yds for a TD (Owen Valek KICK) — WIU win probability +3.7 pts (now 14%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  2. TD · Q2 0:05: Ludovick Choquette run for 21 yds for a TD (Owen Valek KICK) — WIU win probability +6.7 pts (now 17%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  3. TD · Q3 7:58: Diego Pavia pass complete to Bryce Childress for 75 yds for a TD (Ethan Albertson KICK) — NMSU win probability +6.2 pts (now 95%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 4:38: Diego Pavia pass complete to Jonathan Brady for 80 yds for a TD (Ethan Albertson KICK) — NMSU win probability +5.7 pts (now 98%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 2:38: Matt Morrissey pass complete to Donald McKinney for 26 yds for a TD (Owen Valek KICK) — WIU win probability +5.1 pts (now 8%) (top driver: WIU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NMSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 3WIU made the numbers' call on 8 of 8
  1. Q1 10:03WIU 4th & 21 at WIU 14, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.6%−0.2
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:59NMSU 4th & 23 at NMSU 26, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.4%−0.3
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.7%
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:08WIU 4th & 6 at WIU 49, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.9%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.9%
    average punt
  4. Q3 13:55WIU 4th & 22 at WIU 13, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.5%−2.1
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.6%
    average punt
  5. Q3 11:34NMSU 4th & 4 at WIU 20, up 6
    Close callKicked a field goal · 85.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.8%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    84.6%−0.2
    75% to make
    Punt
    79.9%−4.9
    average punt
  6. Q3 8:31WIU 4th & 14 at WIU 46, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.3%−1.6
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.9%
    average punt
  7. Q3 4:50WIU 4th & 9 at NMSU 9, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 6.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.1%−0.5
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    6.6%
    89% to make
    Punt
    3.2%−3.3
    average punt
  8. Q4 11:18NMSU 4th & 1 at WIU 25, up 16
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 96.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    96.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    95.6%−0.9
    66% to make
    Punt
    93.3%−3.1
    average punt
  9. Q4 9:40WIU 4th & 15 at WIU 20, down 23
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.8%−0.1
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.9%
    average punt
  10. Q4 6:58WIU 4th & 18 at WIU 17, down 30
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    -0.0%−0.1
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  11. Q4 2:39WIU 4th & 15 at WIU 30, down 37
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.0%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NMSU made the numbers' call on 8 of 8WIU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 11:29NMSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    90.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:53NMSU Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 8:42WIU Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    12.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    12.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 2:23NMSU Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:05WIU Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    14.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    14.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 7:58NMSU Touchdown, up 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 4:38NMSU Touchdown, up 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 2:38WIU Touchdown, down 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    4.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    4.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 11:18NMSU Touchdown, up 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 8:49NMSU Touchdown, up 29 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 4:13NMSU Touchdown, up 36 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NMSUDrive 1TD
7 plays · 70 yds · 3:2492% → 92%
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
91.9%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Jonathan Brady for 1 yd to the NMSU 31Similar
Q1 14:53
2ND & 9
OWN 31
+3
91.9%
Jamoni Jones run for 3 yds to the NMSU 34Similar
Q1 14:53
3RD & 6
OWN 34
+8
91.8%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Star Thomas for 8 yds to the NMSU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+35
91.9%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Trent Hudson for 35 yds to the WIU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+9
91.9%
Jamoni Jones run for 9 yds to the WIU 14Similar
Q1 14:53
2ND & 1
OPP 14
-10
91.9%
New Mexico State Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the WIU 20Similar
Q1 11:29
2ND & 7
OPP 20
+20
91.5%
Star Thomas run for 20 yds for a TD (Ethan Albertson PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WIUDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · -11 yds · 1:269% → 9%
Q1 11:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
91.3%
Seth Glatz run for a loss of 3 yards to the WIU 22Similar
Q1 11:29
2ND & 13
OWN 22
0
91.3%
Matt Morrissey pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:29
3RD & 13
OWN 22
-3
91.3%
Matt Morrissey run for a loss of 3 yards to the WIU 19Similar
Q1 11:29
4TH & 16
OWN 19
-5
91.3%
Western Illinois Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the WIU 14Similar
Q1 10:03
4TH & 21
OWN 14
0
91.1%
Jared Campbell punt for 32 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · -13 yds · 2:0491% → 91%
Q1 10:03
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
91.2%
Star Thomas run for 5 yds to the NMSU 44Similar
Q1 10:03
2ND & 5
OWN 44
-2
91.3%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Jonathan Brady for a loss of 2 yards to the NMSU 42Similar
Q1 10:03
3RD & 7
OWN 42
-16
91.1%
Diego Pavia sacked by Marcus Morris and Garret Steffen for a loss of 16 yards to the NMSU 26Similar
Q1 7:59
4TH & 23
OWN 26
0
90.5%
Zach Haynes punt for 47 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WIUDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 22 yds · 2:519% → 10%
Q1 7:59
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+8
90.6%
Matt Morrissey pass complete to A.J. Coons for 8 yds to the WIU 35Similar
Q1 7:59
2ND & 2
OWN 35
+10
90.4%
Matt Morrissey run for 10 yds to the WIU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:59
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+6
90.4%
Seth Glatz run for 6 yds to the NMSU 49Similar
Q1 7:59
2ND & 4
OPP 49
-2
90.3%
Donald McKinney run for a loss of 2 yards to the WIU 49Similar
Q1 7:59
3RD & 6
OWN 49
0
90.4%
Matt Morrissey pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:08
4TH & 6
OWN 49
0
90.0%
Jared Campbell punt for 32 yds, downed at the NMSU 19Similar
Q1 5:08
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-5
90.2%
New Mexico State Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NMSU 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 5TD
13 plays · 81 yds · 5:1590% → 92%
Q1 5:08
1ST & 15
OWN 14
+5
90.2%
Jamoni Jones run for 5 yds to the NMSU 19Similar
Q1 5:08
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+15
90.2%
Western Illinois Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (JJ Ross) to the NMSU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:08
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+17
90.4%
Jamoni Jones run for 17 yds to the WIU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:08
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
90.5%
Diego Pavia pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:08
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+12
90.5%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Kordell David for 12 yds to the WIU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:42
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+11
90.4%
Jamoni Jones run for 11 yds to the WIU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:42
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
90.4%
Jamoni Jones run for no gain to the WIU 21Similar
Q1 1:11
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+4
90.0%
Diego Pavia run for 4 yds to the WIU 17Similar
Q1 1:11
3RD & 6
OPP 17
+11
89.8%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Chris Bellamy for 11 yds to the WIU 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
89.8%
Jamoni Jones run for 2 yds to the WIU 4Similar
Q2 14:53
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
92.3%
Eli Stowers run for 4 yds for a TD (Ethan Albertson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WIUDrive 6TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 6:119% → 14%
Q2 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
91.5%
Matt Morrissey pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:06
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
91.2%
Ludovick Choquette run for 3 yds to the WIU 28Similar
Q2 14:06
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
91.2%
New Mexico State Penalty, Targeting on EARLY, Dylan (Dylan Early) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:06
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
90.9%
Ludovick Choquette run for 3 yds to the WIU 42Similar
Q2 14:06
2ND & 7
OWN 42
+5
90.9%
Ludovick Choquette run for 5 yds to the WIU 47Similar
Q2 14:06
3RD & 2
OWN 47
+20
90.6%
Matt Morrissey pass complete to Ludovick Choquette for 20 yds to the NMSU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:06
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+4
90.3%
Jay Parker run for 4 yds to the NMSU 29Similar
Q2 14:06
2ND & 6
OPP 29
+4
90.2%
Matt Morrissey run for 4 yds to the NMSU 25Similar
Q2 14:06
3RD & 2
OPP 25
+19
90.4%
Matt Morrissey pass complete to Seth Glatz for 19 yds to the NMSU 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
90.2%
Seth Glatz run for 1 yd to the NMSU 5Similar
Q2 14:06
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
90.2%
Matt Morrissey pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:42
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
86.5%
Matt Morrissey pass complete to Jaylin Jackson for 5 yds for a TD (Owen Valek KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 7TD
11 plays · 78 yds · 6:1188% → 91%
Q2 8:34
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
87.8%
Eli Stowers run for 3 yds to the NMSU 25Similar
Q2 8:34
2ND & 7
OWN 25
0
87.8%
Eli Stowers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:34
3RD & 7
OWN 25
+15
87.3%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Jordan Smith for 15 yds to the NMSU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:34
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+9
88.5%
Star Thomas run for 9 yds to the NMSU 49Similar
Q2 8:34
2ND & 1
OWN 49
+3
88.6%
Diego Pavia run for 3 yds to the WIU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:34
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+10
88.7%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Monte Watkins for 10 yds to the WIU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:34
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+5
88.8%
Star Thomas run for 5 yds to the WIU 33Similar
Q2 8:34
2ND & 5
OPP 33
+23
88.8%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Jonathan Brady for 23 yds to the WIU 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+6
88.8%
Star Thomas run for 6 yds to the WIU 4Similar
Q2 8:34
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
-1
88.8%
Jamoni Jones run for a loss of 1 yard to the WIU 5Similar
Q2 2:23
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
91.2%
Monte Watkins run for 5 yds for a TD (Ethan Albertson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WIUDrive 8TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 2:189% → 17%
Q2 2:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
91.2%
Matt Morrissey pass complete to Jay Parker for 13 yds to the WIU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:23
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
90.9%
Matt Morrissey pass complete to Donald McKinney for 5 yds to the WIU 43Similar
Q2 2:23
2ND & 5
OWN 43
0
90.4%
Matt Morrissey pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:23
3RD & 5
OWN 43
+8
90.9%
Matt Morrissey pass complete to Donald McKinney for 8 yds to the NMSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:23
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+7
90.3%
Matt Morrissey pass complete to Jaylin Jackson for 7 yds to the NMSU 42Similar
Q2 2:23
2ND & 3
OPP 42
0
89.8%
Matt Morrissey pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:23
3RD & 3
OPP 42
+6
90.1%
Matt Morrissey pass complete to Taj Sanders for 6 yds to the NMSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:23
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+15
90.0%
Matt Morrissey pass complete to Taj Sanders for 15 yds to the NMSU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:23
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
89.5%
Matt Morrissey pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:05
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+21
82.8%
Ludovick Choquette run for 21 yds for a TD (Owen Valek KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 9END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0086% → 86%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
86.1%
[SG] Kneel down by PAVIA, Diego at NMS24 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WIUDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · -12 yds · 1:0515% → 14%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
84.9%
Matt Morrissey pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
85.0%
Seth Glatz run for 4 yds to the WIU 29Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
85.2%
Western Illinois Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Matt Morrissey) to the WIU 13Similar
Q3 13:55
4TH & 22
OWN 13
0
85.9%
Jared Campbell punt for 48 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 11FG
7 plays · 41 yds · 2:2187% → 89%
Q3 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-1
86.9%
Star Thomas run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMSU 38Similar
Q3 13:55
2ND & 11
OWN 38
+10
86.7%
Western Illinois Penalty, Illegal use of the hands on BRUCE, Brian enforced (10 Yards) to the WIU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:55
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+15
87.5%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Trent Hudson for 15 yds to the WIU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:55
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+6
87.6%
Star Thomas run for 6 yds to the WIU 20Similar
Q3 13:55
2ND & 4
OPP 20
0
87.6%
Diego Pavia pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:55
3RD & 4
OPP 20
0
87.1%
Diego Pavia pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:34
4TH & 4
OPP 20
+37
88.6%
Ethan Albertson 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WIUDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 6 yds · 3:0313% → 12%
Q3 11:34
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
87.1%
Seth Glatz run for 2 yds to the WIU 42Similar
Q3 11:34
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+8
87.1%
Matt Morrissey pass complete to Seth Glatz for 8 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:34
1ST & 10
50
-3
86.5%
Seth Glatz run for a loss of 3 yards to the WIU 47Similar
Q3 11:34
2ND & 13
OWN 47
+7
87.4%
Ludovick Choquette run for 7 yds to the NMSU 46Similar
Q3 11:34
3RD & 6
OPP 46
-8
86.7%
Matt Morrissey sacked by Buddha Peleti and Gabriel Iniguez for a loss of 8 yards to the WIU 46Similar
Q3 8:31
4TH & 14
OWN 46
0
88.4%
punt for 39 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 13TD
2 plays · 82 yds · 0:3389% → 95%
Q3 8:31
1ST & 9
OWN 18
+7
88.6%
Monte Watkins run for 7 yds to the NMSU 25Similar
Q3 7:58
2ND & 2
OWN 25
+75
94.8%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Bryce Childress for 75 yds for a TD (Ethan Albertson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WIUDrive 14MISSED FG
10 plays · 66 yds · 3:007% → 7%
Q3 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
93.0%
Matt Morrissey pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:50
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+13
93.2%
Matt Morrissey pass complete to Donald McKinney for 13 yds to the WIU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
92.5%
Seth Glatz run for 6 yds to the WIU 44Similar
Q3 7:50
2ND & 4
OWN 44
0
92.3%
Matt Morrissey pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:50
3RD & 4
OWN 44
+46
92.5%
Matt Morrissey pass complete to Seth Glatz for 46 yds to the NMSU 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
91.3%
Matt Morrissey pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:59
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+1
91.4%
Ludovick Choquette run for 1 yd to the NMSU 9Similar
Q3 4:59
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
0
92.2%
Matt Morrissey pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:50
4TH & GOAL
OPP 9
+26
92.6%
Owen Valek 26 Yard Field Goal MissedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 15TD
1 play · 80 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q3 4:38
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+80
98.4%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Jonathan Brady for 80 yds for a TD (Ethan Albertson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WIUDrive 16TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 2:002% → 8%
Q3 4:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
97.9%
Matt Morrissey run for 2 yds to the WIU 27Similar
Q3 4:38
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+5
97.8%
Matt Morrissey pass complete to A.J. Coons for 5 yds to the WIU 32Similar
Q3 4:38
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+15
97.8%
MORRISSEY, Matt pass deep up the middle complete for 29 yards to COONS, A.J. caught at the NMS39 and advanced to the NMS39; QB hurried by PETERSON, Gabe (EARLY, Dylan;MILLER, Mehki). PENALTY NMS Targeting on EARLY, Dylan enforced 15 yards from the NMS41 to the NMS26 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 4:38
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
97.4%
Matt Morrissey pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:38
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+26
92.3%
Matt Morrissey pass complete to Donald McKinney for 26 yds for a TD (Owen Valek KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 17TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 6:2095% → 99%
Q3 2:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
95.4%
Star Thomas run for no gain to the NMSU 25Similar
Q3 2:38
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+9
95.3%
Star Thomas run for 9 yds to the NMSU 34Similar
Q3 2:38
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+1
95.4%
Diego Pavia run for 1 yd to the NMSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
95.8%
Star Thomas run for 5 yds to the NMSU 40Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+13
96.0%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Star Thomas for 13 yds to the WIU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+6
96.1%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Monte Watkins for 6 yds to the WIU 41Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 41
+7
96.1%
Star Thomas run for 7 yds to the WIU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+5
96.1%
Jamoni Jones run for 5 yds to the WIU 29Similar
Q4 12:06
2ND & 5
OPP 29
0
98.2%
Diego Pavia pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:06
3RD & 5
OPP 29
+4
98.2%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Trent Hudson for 4 yds to the WIU 25Similar
Q4 11:18
4TH & 1
OPP 25
+25
99.4%
Star Thomas run for 25 yds for a TD (Ethan Albertson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WIUDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · -5 yds · 1:381% → 1%
Q4 11:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.0%
Matt Morrissey pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:18
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-7
99.0%
Matt Morrissey sacked by Nikhil Webb Walker for a loss of 7 yards to the WIU 18Similar
Q4 11:18
3RD & 17
OWN 18
+2
99.1%
Seth Glatz run for 2 yds to the WIU 20Similar
Q4 9:40
4TH & 15
OWN 20
0
99.1%
Jared Campbell punt for 30 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 19TD
2 plays · 65 yds · 0:51100% → 100%
Q4 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
99.5%
Jamoni Jones run for 2 yds to the NMSU 37Similar
Q4 8:49
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+63
99.9%
Eli Stowers pass complete to Jordin Parker for 63 yds for a TD (Ethan Albertson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WIUDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · -8 yds · 1:510% → 0%
Q4 8:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
99.9%
Western Illinois Penalty, Delay Of Game (-5 Yards) to the WIU 20Similar
Q4 8:49
1ST & 15
OWN 20
-2
99.9%
Ludovick Choquette run for a loss of 2 yards to the WIU 18Similar
Q4 8:49
2ND & 17
OWN 18
-1
99.9%
Ludovick Choquette run for a loss of 1 yard to the WIU 17Similar
Q4 8:49
3RD & 18
OWN 17
+5
99.9%
Ludovick Choquette run for 5 yds to the WIU 22Similar
Q4 8:49
4TH & 13
OWN 22
-5
99.9%
Western Illinois Penalty, Delay Of Game (TEAM) to the WIU 17Similar
Q4 6:58
4TH & 18
OWN 17
0
99.9%
Jared Campbell punt for 49 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 21TD
5 plays · 61 yds · 2:45100% → 100%
Q4 6:58
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+18
99.9%
Larenzo McMillan run for 18 yds to the WIU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:58
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
99.9%
Tim Gans run for 5 yds to the WIU 38Similar
Q4 6:58
2ND & 5
OPP 38
+4
99.9%
Eli Stowers run for 4 yds to the WIU 34Similar
Q4 6:58
3RD & 1
OPP 34
+31
99.9%
Makhilyn Young run for 31 yds to the WIU 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
100.0%
Makhilyn Young run for 3 yds for a TD (Ethan Albertson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WIUDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · -5 yds · 1:340% → 0%
Q4 4:13
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-3
99.9%
Ludovick Choquette run for a loss of 3 yards to the WIU 32Similar
Q4 4:13
2ND & 13
OWN 32
0
100.0%
Nate Lamb run for no gain to the WIU 32Similar
Q4 4:13
3RD & 13
OWN 32
+2
100.0%
New Mexico State Penalty, personal foul (Myles Rowser) to the WIU 30Similar
Q4 2:39
4TH & 15
OWN 30
0
100.0%
Jared Campbell punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Jordan Smith at the WIU 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 23END OF GAME
4 plays · 41 yds · 2:39100% → 100%
Q4 2:39
1ST & 9
OPP 45
+30
100.0%
Larenzo McMillan run for 30 yds to the WIU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:39
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+5
100.0%
Larenzo McMillan run for 5 yds to the WIU 10Similar
Q4 2:39
2ND & 5
OPP 10
+4
100.0%
Eli Stowers run for 4 yds to the WIU 6Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 1
OPP 6
+2
100.0%
Larenzo McMillan run for 2 yds to the WIU 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:05
Ludovick Choquette run for 21 yds for a TD (Owen Valek KICK)
-6.7
TD · Q3 7:58
Diego Pavia pass complete to Bryce Childress for 75 yds for a TD (Ethan Albertson KICK)
+6.2
TD · Q3 4:38
Diego Pavia pass complete to Jonathan Brady for 80 yds for a TD (Ethan Albertson KICK)
+5.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com