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CMU

Central Michigan 7 at Michigan State 31

MSU
2023 · Week 1 · Sep 1, 2023 · Spartan Stadium
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Win probability · MSU
modelMSU aheadCMU aheadconfidence bandkey playMSU scoreCMU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 0:23 · Jake Walrath punt for 29 yds, downed at the MSU 37
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorDefense timeouts
+35.0+17.50−17.5−35.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 86Pregame prior+19.2Home team on offense+0.7Score differential+0.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.9Garbage-time factor−0.3Defense timeouts+4.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 1:51: Chris Parker 12 Yd pass from Bert Emanuel Jr. (Tristan Mattson Kick) — CMU win probability +7.7 pts (now 29%) (top driver: CMU has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q3 7:53: Timeout Michigan State, clock 07:53 — CMU win probability +5.0 pts (now 32%) (top driver: CMU has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q3 7:53: Jr. Bert Emanuel pass complete to Sam Hicks for a loss of 4 yards to the CMU 16 — MSU win probability +5.5 pts (now 74%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  4. TD · Q3 2:42: Jalen Berger run for 12 yds for a TD (Jonathan Kim KICK) — MSU win probability +8.4 pts (now 86%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 13:26: Noah Kim pass complete to Tyrell Henry for 10 yds for a TD (Jonathan Kim KICK) — MSU win probability +7.6 pts (now 99%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 8CMU made the numbers' call on 8 of 10
  1. Q1 13:20MSU 4th & 1 at CMU 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 83.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    83.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    83.5%−0.2
    47% to make
    Punt
    83.5%−0.2
    average punt
  2. Q1 3:45CMU 4th & 2 at MSU 2, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 19.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    19.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    19.6%−0.3
    94% to make
    Punt
    18.4%−1.5
    average punt
  3. Q1 0:58MSU 4th & 13 at MSU 16, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.6%−0.6
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.2%
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:44CMU 4th & 18 at CMU 36, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.7%−1.0
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.7%
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:08MSU 4th & 5 at MSU 48, tied
    Close callPunted · 77.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.7%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:17CMU 4th & 3 at CMU 19, tied
    Close callPunted · 23.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.9%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.7%−0.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:55MSU 4th & 17 at CMU 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 75.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.4%−1.2
    14% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    75.5%
    56% to make
    Punt
    74.6%−1.0
    average punt
  8. Q2 5:52CMU 4th & 1 at CMU 34, down 3
    Close callPunted · 21.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.8%−0.6
    average punt
  9. Q2 3:11MSU 4th & 1 at CMU 30, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 78.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    78.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    76.8%−1.4
    56% to make
    Punt
    75.6%−2.5
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:23CMU 4th & 1 at CMU 34, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.9%−0.2
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.1%
    average punt
  11. Q3 7:53MSU 4th & 10 at CMU 47, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.3%−0.9
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.3%
    average punt
  12. Q3 5:32CMU 4th & 12 at CMU 18, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.6%−2.4
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.0%
    average punt
  13. Q4 14:50CMU 4th & 19 at CMU 35, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.3%−2.7
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.0%
    average punt
  14. Q4 11:07CMU 4th & 8 at CMU 17, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.5%−0.6
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.2%
    average punt
  15. Q4 7:22CMU 4th & 9 at CMU 26, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.7%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.8%
    average punt
  16. Q4 5:51MSU 4th & 12 at CMU 39, up 24
    Close callPunted · 99.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.2%−<0.1
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    99.2%
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    99.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 4:16CMU 4th & 5 at CMU 29, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.6%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.6%
    average punt
  18. Q4 2:36MSU 4th & 20 at MSU 25, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.2%−0.2
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.4%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4CMU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q2 1:51CMU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    32.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 0:48MSU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 2:42MSU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 13:26MSU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 9:05MSU Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.1%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.2%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MSUDrive 1DOWNS
7 plays · 40 yds · 1:3485% → 84%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+31
84.7%
Nathan Carter run for 31 yds to the CMU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+4
84.7%
Nathan Carter run for 4 yds to the CMU 39Similar
Q1 14:54
2ND & 6
OPP 39
0
84.7%
Noah Kim pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:54
3RD & 6
OPP 39
0
84.7%
Noah Kim pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:54
4TH & 6
OPP 39
+5
84.7%
Central Michigan Penalty, Offsides (5 Yards) to the CMU 34Similar
Q1 13:20
4TH & 1
OPP 34
0
84.3%
Nathan Carter run for no gain to the CMU 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 2DOWNS
17 plays · 57 yds · 9:3516% → 20%
Q1 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+5
84.2%
Marion Lukes run for 5 yds to the CMU 39Similar
Q1 13:20
2ND & 5
OWN 39
+6
84.2%
Jr. Bert Emanuel run for 6 yds to the CMU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+13
84.1%
Myles Bailey run for 13 yds to the MSU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:20
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+8
84.1%
Jr. Bert Emanuel pass complete to Sam Hicks for 8 yds to the MSU 34Similar
Q1 13:20
2ND & 2
OPP 34
+4
84.1%
Jr. Bert Emanuel run for 4 yds to the MSU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:20
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+2
84.1%
B.J. Harris run for 2 yds to the MSU 28Similar
Q1 13:20
2ND & 8
OPP 28
+10
84.1%
Jr. Bert Emanuel pass complete to Tyson Davis for 10 yds to the MSU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:20
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+13
84.1%
Jr. Bert Emanuel pass complete to Mitchel Collier for 13 yds to the MSU 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-3
84.1%
Jr. Bert Emanuel run for a loss of 3 yards to the MSU 8Similar
Q1 13:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
84.1%
Jr. Bert Emanuel run for no gain to the MSU 8Similar
Q1 13:20
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
-10
84.1%
EMANUEL, JR., Bert scrambles to the left for a gain of 2 yards to the MSU6 (WINDMON, Jacoby), out of bounds. PENALTY CMU Holding on HEINZEN, Davis enforced 10 yards from the MSU8 to the MSU18 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 13:20
3RD & GOAL
OPP 18
0
84.2%
Michigan State Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct ( Yards) to the MSU 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+4
84.1%
Jr. Bert Emanuel pass complete to Mitchel Collier for 4 yds to the MSU 5Similar
Q1 13:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
84.1%
B.J. Harris run for 2 yds to the MSU 3Similar
Q1 13:20
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
84.1%
Marion Lukes run for 1 yd to the MSU 2Similar
Q1 3:45
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
-7
80.5%
Jr. Bert Emanuel sacked by Simeon Barrow Jr. for a loss of 7 yards to the MSU 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 3PUNT
8 plays · 7 yds · 2:4781% → 80%
Q1 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 9
0
80.9%
Noah Kim pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:45
2ND & 10
OWN 9
+8
80.8%
Jalen Berger run for 8 yds to the MSU 17Similar
Q1 3:45
3RD & 2
OWN 17
+2
80.7%
Jalen Berger run for 2 yds to the MSU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-1
81.1%
Jalen Berger run for a loss of 1 yard to the MSU 18Similar
Q1 3:45
2ND & 11
OWN 18
-2
81.0%
Noah Kim pass complete to Christian Fitzpatrick for a loss of 2 yards to the MSU 16Similar
Q1 3:45
3RD & 13
OWN 16
0
80.7%
Noah Kim pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:58
4TH & 13
OWN 16
0
79.5%
Ryan Eckley punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Jr. Stephan Bracey at the CMU 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 4PUNT
8 plays · 4 yds · 3:1421% → 21%
Q1 0:58
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
79.2%
Marion Lukes run for 2 yds to the CMU 34Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 8
OWN 34
+6
78.8%
Jr. Bert Emanuel pass complete to Chris Parker for 6 yds to the CMU 40Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 40
+4
78.4%
Myles Bailey run for 4 yds to the CMU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-9
78.2%
Jr. Stephan Bracey run for a loss of 9 yards to the CMU 35Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 19
OWN 35
+1
79.2%
Jr. Bert Emanuel run for 1 yd to the CMU 36Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 18
OWN 36
0
79.5%
Jr. Bert Emanuel pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:44
4TH & 18
OWN 36
0
78.9%
Jake Walrath punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Tyrell Henry at the MSU 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 5PUNT
8 plays · 18 yds · 2:3680% → 79%
Q2 12:44
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
79.5%
Noah Kim run for 2 yds to the MSU 32Similar
Q2 12:44
2ND & 8
OWN 32
+3
79.5%
Nathan Carter run for 3 yds to the MSU 35Similar
Q2 12:44
3RD & 5
OWN 35
+8
79.2%
Noah Kim pass complete to Jalen Berger for 8 yds to the MSU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:44
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-3
80.4%
Jalen Berger run for a loss of 3 yards to the MSU 40Similar
Q2 12:44
2ND & 13
OWN 40
+8
79.7%
Nathan Carter run for 8 yds to the MSU 48Similar
Q2 12:44
3RD & 5
OWN 48
0
80.1%
Noah Kim pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:08
4TH & 5
OWN 48
0
78.6%
Ryan Eckley punt for 40 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:5123% → 23%
Q2 10:08
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+4
77.0%
Sam Hicks run for 4 yds to the CMU 16Similar
Q2 10:08
2ND & 6
OWN 16
0
77.0%
Jr. Bert Emanuel run for no gain to the CMU 16Similar
Q2 10:08
3RD & 6
OWN 16
+3
77.5%
Jr. Bert Emanuel pass complete to Sam Hicks for 3 yds to the CMU 19Similar
Q2 8:17
4TH & 3
OWN 19
0
77.2%
Jake Walrath punt for 27 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 7FG
6 plays · 16 yds · 1:2280% → 80%
Q2 8:17
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+23
79.5%
Noah Kim pass complete to Tre Mosley for 23 yds to the CMU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:17
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-2
79.8%
Jalen Berger run for a loss of 2 yards to the CMU 25Similar
Q2 8:17
2ND & 12
OPP 25
0
79.7%
Noah Kim pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:17
3RD & 12
OPP 25
-5
78.8%
Michigan State Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the CMU 30Similar
Q2 8:17
3RD & 17
OPP 30
0
78.2%
Noah Kim pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:55
4TH & 17
OPP 30
+47
79.9%
Jonathan Kim 47 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:0319% → 18%
Q2 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
81.2%
Jr. Bert Emanuel run for 7 yds to the CMU 32Similar
Q2 6:55
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+2
80.4%
B.J. Harris run for 2 yds to the CMU 34Similar
Q2 6:55
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
81.1%
Jr. Bert Emanuel pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:52
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
81.7%
Jake Walrath punt for 46 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 9DOWNS
6 plays · 45 yds · 2:4180% → 80%
Q2 5:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
80.4%
Noah Kim pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:52
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+15
80.2%
Central Michigan Penalty, Roughing the Passer on KOSTUS, Kade enforced (15 Yards) to the CMU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:52
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
82.1%
Nathan Carter run for no gain to the CMU 39Similar
Q2 5:52
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+7
82.0%
Nathan Carter run for 7 yds to the CMU 32Similar
Q2 5:52
3RD & 3
OPP 32
+2
81.6%
Nathan Carter run for 2 yds to the CMU 30Similar
Q2 3:11
4TH & 1
OPP 30
0
80.2%
Nathan Carter run for no gain to the CMU 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 10TD
4 plays · 70 yds · 1:2020% → 29%
Q2 3:11
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+17
80.4%
Jr. Bert Emanuel pass complete to Shatavious Hogan for 17 yds to the CMU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:11
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+14
79.0%
LUKES, Marion rush to the left for a gain of 2 yards to the CMU49 (HALADAY, Cal;WRIGHT, Brandon). PENALTY MSU Face mask on WRIGHT, Brandon enforced 14 yards from the CMU47 to the MSU39 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 3:11
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+14
78.7%
Michigan State Penalty, Face mask (14 yards) (14 Yards) to the MSU 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:51
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
71.0%
Chris Parker 12 Yd pass from Bert Emanuel Jr. (Tristan Mattson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 11TD
7 plays · 84 yds · 0:5773% → 81%
Q2 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+10
72.5%
Noah Kim pass complete to Jaron Glover for 10 yds to the MSU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+7
72.8%
Noah Kim pass complete to Montorie Foster Jr. for 7 yds to the MSU 33Similar
Q2 1:45
2ND & 3
OWN 33
0
73.9%
Noah Kim pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:45
3RD & 3
OWN 33
+32
72.3%
Noah Kim pass complete to Jaron Glover for 32 yds to the CMU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:45
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
76.7%
Noah Kim pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:45
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+33
76.6%
Noah Kim pass complete to Jaron Glover for 33 yds to the CMU 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
81.4%
Nathan Carter run for 2 yds for a TD (Jonathan Kim KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:2519% → 19%
Q2 0:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
80.6%
Jr. Bert Emanuel run for 8 yds to the CMU 33Similar
Q2 0:48
2ND & 2
OWN 33
0
79.6%
Jr. Bert Emanuel pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:31
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+1
80.6%
Myles Bailey run for 1 yd to the CMU 34Similar
Q2 0:23
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
81.4%
Jake Walrath punt for 29 yds, downed at the MSU 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 13END OF HALF
5 plays · 13 yds · 0:1578% → 77%
Q2 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
77.7%
Noah Kim pass complete to Tre Mosley for 2 yds to the MSU 39Similar
Q2 0:15
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+11
78.4%
Noah Kim pass complete to Jalen Berger for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:15
1ST & 10
50
0
79.3%
Noah Kim pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
50
0
77.3%
Noah Kim pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 14INT
8 plays · 31 yds · 3:3224% → 29%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-1
76.0%
Jr. Bert Emanuel run for a loss of 1 yard to the CMU 34Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 34
0
76.5%
Marion Lukes run for no gain to the CMU 34Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 34
+10
77.3%
Jr. Bert Emanuel run for 10 yds to the CMU 44Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 44
+5
75.7%
LUKES, Marion rush up the middle for a gain of 1 yard to the CMU45 (HALADAY, Cal). PENALTY Before the snap, MSU Illegal Substitution on KIMBROUGH, Chester enforced 5 yards from the CMU44 to the CMU49 and results in a 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+12
74.2%
Jr. Bert Emanuel run for 12 yds to the MSU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+5
74.1%
Jr. Bert Emanuel pass complete to Jr. Stephan Bracey for 5 yds to the MSU 34Similar
Q3 11:28
2ND & 5
OPP 34
0
71.4%
Jr. Bert Emanuel pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 15PUNT
10 plays · 22 yds · 3:3576% → 75%
Q3 11:28
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
76.1%
Nathan Carter run for 3 yds to the MSU 34Similar
Q3 11:28
2ND & 7
OWN 34
+5
76.1%
Noah Kim pass complete to Jalen Berger for 5 yds to the MSU 39Similar
Q3 11:28
3RD & 2
OWN 39
+14
76.8%
Noah Kim pass complete to Tre Mosley for 14 yds to the CMU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:28
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
78.4%
Nathan Carter run for 3 yds to the CMU 44Similar
Q3 11:28
2ND & 7
OPP 44
+2
78.3%
Nathan Carter run for 2 yds to the CMU 42Similar
Q3 8:43
3RD & 5
OPP 42
-5
77.6%
Michigan State Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the CMU 47Similar
Q3 8:43
3RD & 10
OPP 47
0
77.1%
Noah Kim pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:53
4TH & 10
OPP 47
0
75.3%
Ryan Eckley punt for 47 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · -2 yds · 2:2127% → 25%
Q3 7:53
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-4
73.5%
Jr. Bert Emanuel pass complete to Sam Hicks for a loss of 4 yards to the CMU 16Similar
Q3 7:53
2ND & 14
OWN 16
+7
74.1%
B.J. Harris run for 7 yds to the CMU 23Similar
Q3 7:53
3RD & 7
OWN 23
-5
74.6%
Jr. Bert Emanuel sacked by Aaron Brule for a loss of 5 yards to the CMU 18Similar
Q3 5:32
4TH & 12
OWN 18
0
75.4%
Jake Walrath punt for 45 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 17TD
6 plays · 45 yds · 2:5077% → 86%
Q3 5:32
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
77.3%
Noah Kim pass complete to Evan Morris for 4 yds to the CMU 41Similar
Q3 5:32
2ND & 6
OPP 41
+4
77.2%
Jalen Berger run for 4 yds to the CMU 37Similar
Q3 5:32
3RD & 2
OPP 37
+4
76.2%
Jalen Berger run for 4 yds to the CMU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:32
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+15
77.6%
KIM, Noah pass deep to the left incomplete intended for GATES JR., Antonio broken up by JONES, Trey at the CMU6. PENALTY CMU Pass Interference on WILEY, La'Vario enforced 15 yards to the CMU18 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 5:32
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+6
77.7%
Noah Kim pass complete to Jalen Berger for 6 yds to the CMU 12Similar
Q3 2:42
2ND & 4
OPP 12
+12
86.1%
Jalen Berger run for 12 yds for a TD (Jonathan Kim KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 18PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 2:4615% → 10%
Q3 2:36
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
85.1%
Jr. Bert Emanuel pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:36
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+13
85.6%
Jr. Bert Emanuel pass complete to Mitchel Collier for 13 yds to the CMU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:36
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
84.4%
Marion Lukes run for 2 yds to the CMU 46Similar
Q3 2:36
2ND & 8
OWN 46
-5
84.3%
Jr. Bert Emanuel run for a loss of 5 yards to the CMU 41Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 13
OWN 41
-6
88.7%
Jr. Bert Emanuel sacked by Jacoby Windmon for a loss of 6 yards to the CMU 35Similar
Q4 14:50
4TH & 19
OWN 35
0
89.6%
Jake Walrath punt for 53 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 19TD
3 plays · 82 yds · 1:2491% → 99%
Q4 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+72
90.7%
Noah Kim pass complete to Christian Fitzpatrick for 72 yds to the CMU 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
91.0%
Nathan Carter run for no gain to the CMU 10Similar
Q4 13:26
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
98.6%
Noah Kim pass complete to Tyrell Henry for 10 yds for a TD (Jonathan Kim KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · 2 yds · 2:154% → 3%
Q4 13:22
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+3
96.4%
Myles Bailey run for 3 yds to the CMU 18Similar
Q4 13:22
2ND & 7
OWN 18
-2
96.4%
Myles Bailey run for a loss of 2 yards to the CMU 16Similar
Q4 13:22
3RD & 9
OWN 16
+6
96.5%
Jr. Bert Emanuel run for 6 yds to the CMU 22Similar
Q4 13:22
4TH & 3
OWN 22
-5
96.6%
Central Michigan Penalty, Delay Of Game (Jalen McGaughy) to the CMU 17Similar
Q4 11:07
4TH & 8
OWN 17
0
97.0%
Jake Walrath punt for 50 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 21TD
5 plays · 55 yds · 2:0299% → 100%
Q4 11:07
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+15
98.7%
Noah Kim pass complete to Tyrell Henry for 15 yds to the CMU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:07
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+22
98.7%
Noah Kim run for 7 yds to the CMU 33 for a 1ST down Central Michigan Penalty, Personal Foul (De'Javion Stepney) to the CMU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:07
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+7
98.7%
Nathan Carter run for 7 yds to the CMU 11Similar
Q4 11:07
2ND & 3
OPP 11
+3
98.7%
Nathan Carter run for 3 yds to the CMU 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
99.7%
Noah Kim pass complete to Maliq Carr for 8 yds for a TD (Stephen Rusnak KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:431% → 1%
Q4 9:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
99.3%
B.J. Harris run for 2 yds to the CMU 27Similar
Q4 9:05
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
99.3%
Jase Bauer pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:05
3RD & 8
OWN 27
-1
99.3%
B.J. Harris run for a loss of 1 yard to the CMU 26Similar
Q4 7:22
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
99.5%
Jake Walrath punt for 42 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 29 yds · 1:31100% → 100%
Q4 7:22
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+31
99.7%
Nathan Carter run for 31 yds to the CMU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:22
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
99.8%
Michigan State Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Noah Kim) to the CMU 45Similar
Q4 7:22
2ND & 19
OPP 46
+7
99.8%
Nathan Carter run for 7 yds to the CMU 39Similar
Q4 7:22
3RD & 12
OPP 39
0
99.7%
Noah Kim pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:51
4TH & 12
OPP 39
0
99.7%
Michael O'Shaughnessy punt for 29 yds, fair catch by Jacques Bristol at the CMU 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 24PUNT
5 plays · 19 yds · 1:351% → 0%
Q4 5:51
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+14
99.5%
Jase Bauer run for 14 yds to the CMU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:51
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+5
99.5%
Sam Hicks run for 5 yds to the CMU 29Similar
Q4 5:51
2ND & 5
OWN 29
0
99.5%
Jase Bauer pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:51
3RD & 5
OWN 29
0
99.5%
Jase Bauer pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:16
4TH & 5
OWN 29
0
99.6%
Jake Walrath punt for 50 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 25PUNT
4 plays · -10 yds · 1:40100% → 100%
Q4 4:16
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-1
99.8%
Jordon Simmons run for a loss of 1 yard to the MSU 34Similar
Q4 4:16
2ND & 11
OWN 34
-9
99.8%
Katin Houser sacked by Maurice White for a loss of 9 yards to the MSU 25Similar
Q4 4:16
3RD & 20
OWN 25
0
99.8%
Katin Houser pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:36
4TH & 20
OWN 25
0
99.8%
Michael O'Shaughnessy punt for 39 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 26END OF GAME
9 plays · 49 yds · 2:360% → 0%
Q4 2:36
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
99.6%
Jake Tafelski run for 5 yds to the CMU 41Similar
Q4 2:36
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+3
99.6%
Jake Tafelski run for 3 yds to the CMU 44Similar
Q4 2:36
3RD & 2
OWN 44
+15
99.6%
Michigan State Penalty, Face mask (15 yards) (Malik Spencer) to the MSU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:36
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
99.5%
Jase Bauer pass complete to Jake Tafelski for no gain to the MSU 28Similar
Q4 2:36
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+9
99.5%
Jase Bauer pass complete to Kenny Brewer III for 9 yds to the MSU 19Similar
Q4 2:36
3RD & 1
OPP 19
+4
99.5%
Jake Tafelski run for 4 yds to the MSU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:36
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
99.5%
Jase Bauer pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:36
2ND & 10
OPP 15
0
99.5%
Jase Bauer pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 10
OPP 15
0
99.6%
Jase Bauer pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 2:42
Jalen Berger run for 12 yds for a TD (Jonathan Kim KICK)
+8.4
TD · Q2 1:51
Chris Parker 12 Yd pass from Bert Emanuel Jr. (Tristan Mattson Kick)
-7.7
TD · Q4 13:26
Noah Kim pass complete to Tyrell Henry for 10 yds for a TD (Jonathan Kim KICK)
+7.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com