Try the model
TOL

Toledo 28 at Illinois 30

ILL
2023 · Week 1 · Sep 2, 2023 · Memorial Stadium (Champaign, IL)
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · ILL
modelILL aheadTOL aheadconfidence bandkey playILL scoreTOL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · Dequan Finn pass complete to Junior Vandeross III for 1 yd Junior Vandeross III fumbled, recovered by TOL Jerjuan Newton
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+25.0+12.50−12.5−25.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:04: Jerjuan Newton 15 Yd pass from Dequan Finn (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed) — TOL win probability +18.5 pts (now 55%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 1:23: Luke Altmyer pass complete to Pat Bryant for 4 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — ILL win probability +16.9 pts (now 72%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 13:05: Luke Altmyer pass complete to Pat Bryant for 9 yds for a TD (Caleb Griffin KICK) — ILL win probability +16.9 pts (now 89%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 2:59: Dequan Finn run for 1 yd for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — TOL win probability +33.2 pts (now 67%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 0:05: Caleb Griffin 29 yd FG GOOD — ILL win probability +55.5 pts (now 96%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ILL made the numbers' call on 6 of 6TOL made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
  1. Q1 5:04TOL 4th & 8 at ILL 9, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 24.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.9%−0.2
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    24.1%
    89% to make
    Punt
    22.9%−1.2
    average punt
  2. Q1 2:15ILL 4th & 6 at ILL 29, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.1%−0.2
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.3%
    average punt
  3. Q2 12:31TOL 4th & 15 at ILL 40, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.1%−0.4
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    26.3%−0.1
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    26.5%
    average punt
  4. Q2 11:05ILL 4th & 8 at ILL 36, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.8%−0.4
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.2%
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:05TOL 4th & 1 at TOL 45, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 27.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    27.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    26.8%−0.9
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:05TOL 4th & 1 at ILL 16, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 28.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    27.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    26.9%−1.0
    81% to make
    Punt
    24.0%−3.8
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:37TOL 4th & 3 at ILL 6, down 4
    Close callKicked a field goal · 29.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.0%
    46% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    28.3%−0.6
    91% to make
    Punt
    24.2%−4.7
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:27ILL 4th & 1 at TOL 27, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 72.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    72.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    71.4%−1.1
    62% to make
    Punt
    68.0%−4.5
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:04TOL 4th & 2 at ILL 15, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 32.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    33.1%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    32.1%−1.0
    83% to make
    Punt
    26.1%−7.0
    average punt
  10. Q3 6:22TOL 4th & 2 at TOL 21, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.9%−0.2
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.1%
    average punt
  11. Q3 0:24TOL 4th & 10 at TOL 20, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.6%−2.6
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.2%
    average punt
  12. Q4 15:00ILL 4th & 3 at TOL 38, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 69.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    70.1%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    67.0%−3.1
    38% to make
    Punt
    66.9%−3.3
    average punt
  13. Q4 9:38TOL 4th & 9 at ILL 26, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 13.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.1%−2.6
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    14.7%
    64% to make
    Punt
    4.5%−10.2
    average punt
  14. Q4 6:54ILL 4th & 18 at ILL 22, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.7%−8.3
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.0%
    average punt
  15. Q4 2:16ILL 4th & 4 at ILL 31, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 46.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    40.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    37.9%−2.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ILL made the numbers' call on 3 of 4TOL made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 9:47ILL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 0:04TOL Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    44.2%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    44.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 11:23TOL Touchdown, up 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 8:13ILL Touchdown, down 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 1:23ILL Touchdown, up 1 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    70.3%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    70.1%−0.3
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 13:05ILL Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.4%−0.4
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 2:59TOL Touchdown, up 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    56.5%−1.2
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    57.7%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ILLDrive 1TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 5:1372% → 74%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
72.2%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Tip Reiman for 17 yds to the ILL 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 32
+16
72.2%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Tip Reiman for 16 yds to the TOL 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-5
72.2%
PENALTY ILL False Start (Adams,Isaiah) 5 yards from TOL16 to TOL21. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 15
OPP 21
+9
72.2%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Pat Bryant for 9 yds to the TOL 12Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 12
+11
72.2%
Reggie Love III run for 11 yds to the TOL 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
72.2%
Reggie Love III run for no gain to the TOL 1Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
72.2%
Isaiah Williams run for 5 yds to the ILL 47Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 47
+15
72.2%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Pat Bryant for 15 yds to the TOL 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+6
72.2%
Reggie Love III run for 6 yds to the TOL 44Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 16
OPP 44
+12
72.2%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Isaiah Williams for 12 yds to the TOL 32Similar
Q1 9:47
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
73.5%
Josh McCray run for 1 yd for a TD (Caleb Griffin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 2FG
16 plays · 78 yds · 4:4027% → 29%
Q1 9:44
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-5
72.8%
PENALTY TOL Delay Of Game 5 yards from TOL13 to TOL08. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:44
1ST & 15
OWN 8
+14
72.8%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Anthony Torres for 14 yds to the TOL 22Similar
Q1 9:44
2ND & 1
OWN 22
+2
72.7%
Jacquez Stuart run for 2 yds to the TOL 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:44
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+6
72.8%
Jacquez Stuart run for 6 yds to the TOL 30Similar
Q1 9:44
2ND & 4
OWN 30
+18
72.6%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 18 yds to the TOL 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:44
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
72.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun Stuart,Jacquez rush left for 0 yards to the TOL48 (Rosiek,Dylan; Randolph Jr.,Keith) PENALTY ILL Offside (Daxon,Denzel) 5 yards from TOL48 to ILL47. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:44
1ST & 5
OPP 47
+3
72.3%
Dequan Finn run for 3 yds to the ILL 44Similar
Q1 9:44
2ND & 2
OPP 44
-5
72.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun Boone,Peny rush middle for 4 yards gain to the ILL40 (Jacas,Gabe) PENALTY TOL Illegal Shift (Newton,Jerjuan) 5 yards from ILL44 to ILL49. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:44
2ND & 7
OPP 49
0
72.4%
Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Devin MaddoxSimilar
Q1 9:44
3RD & 7
OPP 49
+15
72.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun Finn,Dequan pass incomplete deep left to Vandeross III,Junior broken up by Bush,Clayton PENALTY ILL UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Barnes,Tarique) 15 yards from ILL49 to ILL34, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:44
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+23
72.2%
Jacquez Stuart run for 23 yds to the ILL 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:44
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+2
72.1%
Jacquez Stuart run for 2 yds to the ILL 9Similar
Q1 9:44
2ND & 8
OPP 9
0
72.1%
Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Jaden DottinSimilar
Q1 9:44
3RD & 8
OPP 9
0
72.4%
Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Jerjuan NewtonSimilar
Q1 5:04
4TH & 8
OPP 9
+27
71.4%
Luke Pawlak 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 4 yds · 2:4972% → 70%
Q1 5:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
71.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun Altmyer,Luke pass complete short left to Washington,Casey for 15 yards to the ILL40 (McDonald Jr.,Chris) PENALTY ILL Holding (Adams,Isaiah) 10 yards from ILL25 to ILL15. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:04
1ST & 20
OWN 15
+3
71.4%
Josh McCray run for 3 yds to the ILL 18Similar
Q1 5:04
2ND & 17
OWN 18
+4
71.4%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Casey Washington for 4 yds to the ILL 22Similar
Q1 5:04
3RD & 13
OWN 22
-5
71.0%
PENALTY ILL False Start (Pearl,Julian) 5 yards from ILL22 to ILL17. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:04
3RD & 18
OWN 17
+12
71.0%
Luke Altmyer run for 12 yds to the ILL 29Similar
Q1 2:15
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+4
70.3%
Hugh Robertson punt for 47 yds , Adam Beale returns for 4 yds to the TOL 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 4Uncategorized
15 plays · 37 yds · 4:4429% → 28%
Q1 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+9
71.0%
Dequan Finn run for 9 yds to the TOL 37Similar
Q1 2:15
2ND & 1
OWN 37
0
70.4%
Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Jerjuan NewtonSimilar
Q1 2:15
3RD & 1
OWN 37
+2
70.6%
Jacquez Stuart run for 2 yds to the TOL 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+9
70.5%
Peny Boone run for 9 yds to the TOL 48Similar
Q1 2:15
2ND & 1
OWN 48
0
69.9%
Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Larry StephensSimilar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 1
OWN 48
+3
69.8%
Peny Boone run for 3 yds to the ILL 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+7
69.5%
Dequan Finn run for 7 yds to the ILL 42Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 42
0
69.4%
Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Junior Vandeross IIISimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 42
+7
69.7%
Dequan Finn run for 7 yds to the ILL 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+1
69.1%
Jacquez Stuart run for 1 yd to the ILL 34Similar
Q2 13:36
2ND & 9
OPP 34
0
69.9%
Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Jerjuan NewtonSimilar
Q2 13:36
3RD & 9
OPP 34
+1
70.6%
Dequan Finn run for 1 yd to the ILL 35Similar
Q2 13:36
4TH & 10
OPP 35
-5
72.0%
PENALTY TOL Delay Of Game 5 yards from ILL35 to ILL40. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:31
4TH & 15
OPP 40
0
72.2%
Emilio Duran punt for 30 yds for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 31 yds · 1:2671% → 70%
Q2 12:31
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+29
71.0%
Reggie Love III run for 29 yds to the ILL 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:31
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
71.4%
Isaiah Williams run for 2 yds to the ILL 36Similar
Q2 12:31
2ND & 8
OWN 36
0
71.7%
Luke Altmyer pass incomplete to Malik ElzySimilar
Q2 12:31
3RD & 8
OWN 36
0
71.1%
Luke Altmyer pass incomplete to Isaiah WilliamsSimilar
Q2 11:05
4TH & 8
OWN 36
0
70.4%
Hugh Robertson punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Adam Beale at the TOL 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 6FG
19 plays · 77 yds · 6:2828% → 32%
Q2 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+15
71.8%
Illinois Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Seth Coleman) to the TOL 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
71.2%
Dequan Finn run for no gain to the TOL 36Similar
Q2 11:05
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+9
71.5%
Peny Boone run for 9 yds to the TOL 45Similar
Q2 11:05
3RD & 1
OWN 45
0
70.5%
Peny Boone run for no gain to the TOL 45Similar
Q2 11:05
4TH & 1
OWN 45
+9
71.2%
Dequan Finn run for 9 yds to the ILL 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:05
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+21
70.1%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Junior Vandeross III for 21 yds to the ILL 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:05
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+4
69.4%
Jacquez Stuart run for 4 yds to the ILL 21Similar
Q2 11:05
2ND & 6
OPP 21
+2
69.4%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Junior Vandeross III for 2 yds to the ILL 19Similar
Q2 11:05
3RD & 4
OPP 19
+3
70.2%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 3 yds to the ILL 16Similar
Q2 11:05
4TH & 1
OPP 16
+3
71.0%
Dequan Finn run for 3 yds to the ILL 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:05
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+4
69.4%
Peny Boone run for 4 yds to the ILL 9Similar
Q2 11:05
2ND & 6
OPP 9
-16
69.4%
Toledo Penalty, Intentional Grounding (-16 Yards) to the ILL 25Similar
Q2 11:05
2ND & 22
OPP 25
-5
70.1%
PENALTY TOL Delay Of Game (Finn,Dequan) 5 yards from ILL25 to ILL30. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:05
3RD & 22
OPP 25
+19
71.1%
Dequan Finn run for 19 yds to the ILL 6Similar
Q2 11:05
3RD & 27
OPP 30
+24
71.3%
Dequan Finn run for 24 yds to the ILL 6Similar
Q2 11:05
3RD & 22
OPP 25
-5
71.1%
PENALTY TOL Delay Of Game (Finn,Dequan) 5 yards from ILL25 to ILL30. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:37
4TH & 3
OPP 6
+25
67.9%
Luke Pawlak 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 7DOWNS
8 plays · 47 yds · 3:0671% → 71%
Q2 4:33
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+20
71.4%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Isaiah Williams for 20 yds to the ILL 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:33
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
72.8%
Josh McCray run for 1 yd to the ILL 47Similar
Q2 4:33
2ND & 9
OWN 47
+17
72.6%
Luke Altmyer run for 17 yds to the TOL 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:33
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+7
73.3%
Luke Altmyer run for 7 yds to the TOL 29Similar
Q2 4:33
2ND & 3
OPP 29
+1
74.0%
Josh McCray run for 1 yd to the TOL 28Similar
Q2 4:33
3RD & 2
OPP 28
+1
73.1%
Josh McCray run for 1 yd to the TOL 27Similar
Q2 1:27
4TH & 1
OPP 27
0
71.4%
Josh McCray run for no gain to the TOL 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 8TD
17 plays · 73 yds · 1:2332% → 55%
Q2 1:27
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
68.5%
Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Junior Vandeross IIISimilar
Q2 1:27
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+3
68.7%
Jacquez Stuart run for 3 yds to the TOL 30Similar
Q2 1:14
3RD & 7
OWN 30
+15
70.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun Finn,Dequan pass incomplete deep middle to Zsiros,Thomas PENALTY ILL Pass Interference (Nicholson,Tahveon) 15 yards from TOL30 to TOL45, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:14
3RD & 6
OPP 23
+8
65.3%
Dequan Finn run for 8 yds to the ILL 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:14
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
67.1%
Dequan Finn run for 3 yds to the TOL 42Similar
Q2 1:14
2ND & 13
OWN 42
+13
68.5%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Adam Beale for 13 yds to the ILL 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:14
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
65.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun Finn,Dequan pass incomplete deep left to Newton,Jerjuan PENALTY ILL Offside declined ILL Pass Interference (Nicholson,Tahveon) 15 yards from ILL42 to ILL27, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:14
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+4
64.1%
Dequan Finn run for 4 yds to the ILL 23Similar
Q2 1:14
2ND & 6
OPP 23
0
64.1%
Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Larry StephensSimilar
Q2 1:14
3RD & 2
OPP 15
0
65.0%
Dequan Finn pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:14
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+7
64.3%
Dequan Finn run for 7 yds to the ILL 23Similar
Q2 1:14
2ND & 3
OPP 23
0
64.1%
Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Larry StephensSimilar
Q2 1:14
3RD & 3
OPP 23
+8
65.1%
Dequan Finn run for 8 yds to the ILL 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:14
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
64.0%
Dequan Finn pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:04
4TH & 2
OPP 15
+15
45.5%
Jerjuan Newton 15 Yd pass from Dequan Finn (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 9TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 3:3747% → 64%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
52.9%
Jacquez Stuart run for 6 yds to the TOL 31Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+7
51.7%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Adam Beale for 7 yds to the TOL 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+22
51.3%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Adam Beale for 22 yds to the ILL 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+17
50.3%
Jacquez Stuart run for 17 yds to the ILL 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+2
49.2%
Peny Boone run for 2 yds to the ILL 21Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 21
+12
49.2%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Jaden Dottin for 12 yds to the ILL 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
49.2%
Dequan Finn run for no gain to the ILL 9Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
0
49.2%
Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Anthony TorresSimilar
Q3 11:23
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
36.1%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Peny Boone for 9 yds for a TD (Luke Pawlak KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 10INT
4 plays · 27 yds · 1:2040% → 40%
Q3 11:18
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+18
39.7%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Pat Bryant for 18 yds to the ILL 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:18
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+9
41.1%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Pat Bryant for 9 yds to the TOL 43Similar
Q3 9:58
2ND & 1
OPP 43
0
40.3%
Luke Altmyer pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 11INT TD
4 plays · 12 yds · 1:4564% → 53%
Q3 9:58
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
35.7%
Jacquez Stuart run for no gain to the TOL 20Similar
Q3 9:58
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+10
35.8%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Jacquez Stuart for 10 yds to the TOL 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:58
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
35.3%
Dequan Finn run for 2 yds to the TOL 32Similar
Q3 8:13
2ND & 8
OWN 32
-48
47.2%
Miles Scott 48 Yd Interception Return (Caleb Griffin Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:4652% → 51%
Q3 8:08
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+5
48.2%
Dequan Finn run for 5 yds to the TOL 18Similar
Q3 8:08
2ND & 5
OWN 18
0
48.2%
Micah Kelly run for no gain to the TOL 18Similar
Q3 8:08
3RD & 5
OWN 18
+3
49.4%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Junior Vandeross III for 3 yds to the TOL 21Similar
Q3 6:22
4TH & 2
OWN 21
0
49.2%
Emilio Duran punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Isaiah Williams at the ILL 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 13TD
11 plays · 55 yds · 4:5952% → 72%
Q3 6:22
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+6
51.9%
Luke Altmyer run for 6 yds to the TOL 49Similar
Q3 6:22
2ND & 4
OPP 49
+3
53.3%
Reggie Love III run for 3 yds to the TOL 46Similar
Q3 6:22
3RD & 1
OPP 46
+4
52.7%
Reggie Love III run for 4 yds to the TOL 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:22
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+9
53.4%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Reggie Love III for 9 yds to the TOL 33Similar
Q3 6:22
2ND & 1
OPP 33
+2
55.1%
Reggie Love III run for 2 yds to the TOL 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:22
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
55.1%
Luke Altmyer pass incomplete to Isaiah WilliamsSimilar
Q3 6:22
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+11
54.9%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Casey Washington for 11 yds to the TOL 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:22
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+5
55.0%
Josh McCray run for 5 yds to the TOL 15Similar
Q3 6:22
2ND & 5
OPP 15
+9
55.0%
Luke Altmyer run for 9 yds to the TOL 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
55.0%
Reggie Love III run for 2 yds to the TOL 4Similar
Q3 1:23
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
71.9%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Pat Bryant for 4 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:5534% → 31%
Q3 1:19
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
65.9%
Peny Boone run for no gain to the TOL 20Similar
Q3 1:19
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
66.3%
Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Junior Vandeross IIISimilar
Q3 1:19
3RD & 10
OWN 20
0
68.0%
Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Junior Vandeross IIISimilar
Q3 0:24
4TH & 10
OWN 20
0
68.9%
Emilio Duran punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Isaiah Williams at the ILL 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 15TD
7 plays · 63 yds · 1:5568% → 89%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+18
67.8%
Luke Altmyer run for 18 yds to the TOL 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
70.9%
Luke Altmyer pass incomplete to Isaiah WilliamsSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+3
70.6%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Isaiah Williams for 3 yds to the TOL 42Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 42
+4
69.9%
Reggie Love III run for 4 yds to the TOL 38Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 3
OPP 38
+24
68.1%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Isaiah Williams for 9 yds to the TOL 29 for a 1ST down Toledo Penalty, Personal Foul (Zachary Ford) to the TOL 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+5
71.9%
Josh McCray run for 5 yds to the TOL 9Similar
Q4 13:05
2ND & 5
OPP 9
+9
88.8%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Pat Bryant for 9 yds for a TD (Caleb Griffin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 16FG
9 plays · 52 yds · 3:2215% → 31%
Q4 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
85.0%
Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Adam BealeSimilar
Q4 13:00
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+6
85.2%
Dequan Finn run for 6 yds to the TOL 28Similar
Q4 13:00
3RD & 4
OWN 28
+9
85.1%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Anthony Torres for 9 yds to the TOL 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+36
84.1%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Junior Vandeross III for 36 yds to the ILL 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
80.2%
Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Junior Vandeross IIISimilar
Q4 13:00
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+2
80.7%
Peny Boone run for 2 yds to the ILL 29Similar
Q4 13:00
3RD & 12
OPP 29
+3
83.3%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Thomas Zsiros for 3 yds to the ILL 26Similar
Q4 9:38
4TH & 9
OPP 26
+44
69.1%
Luke Pawlak 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 17PUNT
7 plays · 3 yds · 2:3378% → 82%
Q4 9:27
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+3
78.2%
Reggie Love III run for 3 yds to the ILL 22Similar
Q4 9:27
2ND & 7
OWN 22
+8
78.0%
Luke Altmyer run for 8 yds to the ILL 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:27
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-1
78.5%
Luke Altmyer sacked for a loss of 1 yard to the ILL 29Similar
Q4 9:27
2ND & 11
OWN 29
0
77.9%
Luke Altmyer pass incomplete to Isaiah WilliamsSimilar
Q4 9:27
3RD & 11
OWN 29
-7
76.6%
Luke Altmyer sacked by Terrance Taylor for a loss of 7 yards to the ILL 22Similar
Q4 6:54
4TH & 18
OWN 22
0
81.5%
Hugh Robertson punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Adam Beale at the TOL 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 18TD
11 plays · 60 yds · 3:5528% → 67%
Q4 6:54
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+9
71.6%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Junior Vandeross III for 9 yds to the TOL 49Similar
Q4 6:54
2ND & 1
OWN 49
+19
68.0%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Junior Vandeross III for 19 yds to the ILL 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:54
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+16
66.8%
Jacquez Stuart run for 16 yds to the ILL 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:54
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-5
66.1%
PENALTY TOL Illegal Snap (Rogers,Devan) 5 yards from ILL16 to ILL21. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:54
1ST & 15
OPP 21
0
67.1%
Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Junior Vandeross IIISimilar
Q4 6:54
2ND & 15
OPP 21
+1
68.7%
Dequan Finn run for 1 yd to the ILL 20Similar
Q4 6:54
3RD & 14
OPP 20
+10
71.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun Finn,Dequan pass incomplete short right to Stuart,Jacquez PENALTY ILL Roughing The Passer (Jacas,Gabe) 10 yards from ILL20 to ILL10, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+6
66.1%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 6 yds TEAM fumbled, recovered by TOLSimilar
Q4 6:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
66.1%
Dequan Finn run for 3 yds to the ILL 1Similar
Q4 2:59
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
32.8%
Dequan Finn run for 1 yd for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 19FG
17 plays · 64 yds · 2:5047% → 96%
Q4 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
47.3%
Luke Altmyer pass incomplete to Casey WashingtonSimilar
Q4 2:55
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
46.3%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Casey Washington for 6 yds to the ILL 31Similar
Q4 2:55
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
46.3%
Luke Altmyer pass incomplete to Hank BeattySimilar
Q4 2:16
4TH & 4
OWN 31
+33
46.0%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Casey Washington for 33 yds to the TOL 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:16
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+7
55.9%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Isaiah Williams for 7 yds to the TOL 29Similar
Q4 2:16
2ND & 3
OPP 29
+5
58.4%
Josh McCray run for 5 yds to the TOL 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:16
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+6
58.4%
Josh McCray run for 6 yds to the TOL 18Similar
Q4 2:16
2ND & 4
OPP 18
+2
58.4%
Josh McCray run for 2 yds to the TOL 16Similar
Q4 1:01
3RD & 2
OPP 16
+7
50.6%
Reggie Love III run for 7 yds to the TOL 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
56.0%
Reggie Love III run for 1 yd to the TOL 10Similar
Q4 0:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
-1
56.0%
L. Altmyer takes a kneeSimilar
Q4 0:05
3RD & GOAL
OPP 11
+29
95.5%
Caleb Griffin 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 20END OF GAME
3 plays · -1 yds · 0:0514% → 13%
Q4 0:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
86.2%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Junior Vandeross III for 1 yd Junior Vandeross III fumbled, recovered by TOL Jerjuan NewtonSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
86.7%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Junior Vandeross III for 1 yd Junior Vandeross III fumbled, recovered by TOL Jerjuan NewtonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q4 0:05
Caleb Griffin 29 yd FG GOOD
+55.5
TD · Q4 2:59
Dequan Finn run for 1 yd for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed )
-33.2
TD · Q2 0:04
Jerjuan Newton 15 Yd pass from Dequan Finn (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)
-18.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com