2023 · Week 1 · Sep 2, 2023 · FIU Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Win probability · FIU
modelFIU aheadME aheadconfidence bandkey playFIU scoreME score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 6:05 · John Bock II run for 7 yds to the ME 11 John Bock II fumbled, recovered by ME Tristen Kenan
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- FG · Q2 2:04: Cody Williams 28 yd FG GOOD — ME win probability +2.3 pts (now 41%) (top driver: ME has the ball).
- TD · Q3 8:59: Tristen Kenan 5 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed) — ME win probability +7.3 pts (now 52%) (top driver: ME has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 11:09: Keyone Jenkins pass complete to Kris Mitchell for 16 yds to the ME 12 for a 1ST down — FIU win probability +9.1 pts (now 47%) (top driver: FIU has the ball).
- FUMBLE · Q4 6:05: John Bock II run for 7 yds to the ME 11 John Bock II fumbled, recovered by ME Tristen Kenan — ME win probability +12.7 pts (now 69%) (top driver: FIU has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 6:05: Tristen Kenan run for 2 yds to the ME 13 — ME win probability +10.5 pts (now 79%) (top driver: ME has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
FIU made the numbers' call on 7 of 8ME made the numbers' call on 6 of 10
- Q1 13:02FIU 4th & 10 at FIU 35, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 83.5% before the snapGo for it83.5%−0.129% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call83.6%average punt
- Q1 6:58ME 4th & 6 at ME 29, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.2% before the snapGo for it20.2%−0.139% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call20.3%average punt
- Q1 5:37FIU 4th & 4 at ME 34, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 79.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call79.3%48% to convertField goal79.1%−0.247% to makePunt78.9%−0.4average punt
- Q1 3:48ME 4th & 7 at FIU 29, up 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 22.7% before the snapGo for it22.6%−0.137% to convertField goalTheir call22.7%58% to makePunt21.4%−1.2average punt
- Q1 0:48FIU 4th & 4 at ME 27, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 76.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call75.9%48% to convertField goal75.7%−0.362% to makePunt73.2%−2.7average punt
- Q2 12:07ME 4th & 3 at ME 48, up 7Close callPunted · 28.0% before the snapGo for it28.3%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call27.8%−0.5average punt
- Q2 10:44FIU 4th & 15 at FIU 15, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.6% before the snapGo for it69.0%−1.716% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call70.7%average punt
- Q2 7:51ME 4th & 11 at FIU 32, up 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 32.7% before the snapGo for it32.2%−0.527% to convertField goalTheir call32.7%51% to makePunt31.8%−0.8average punt
- Q2 5:46FIU 4th & 3 at FIU 39, down 7Close callPunted · 66.0% before the snapGo for it66.0%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call65.9%−0.1average punt
- Q2 4:03ME 4th & 2 at ME 16, up 7Close callPunted · 34.6% before the snapGo for it34.8%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call34.6%−0.2average punt
- Q2 2:04ME 4th & 9 at FIU 10, up 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 40.3% before the snapGo for it39.1%−0.626% to convertField goalTheir call39.7%88% to makePunt34.8%−4.9average punt
- Q3 8:40FIU 4th & 10 at FIU 25, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.6% before the snapGo for it49.9%−3.128% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call53.0%average punt
- Q3 4:37ME 4th & 3 at FIU 6, up 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 56.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call56.8%46% to convertField goal55.4%−1.391% to makePunt43.5%−13.3average punt
- Q3 1:39FIU 4th & 8 at ME 46, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.9% before the snapGo for it45.4%−0.434% to convertField goal43.0%−2.823% to makePuntTheir call45.8%average punt
- Q4 15:00ME 4th & 3 at FIU 34, up 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 62.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call63.3%53% to convertField goal61.4%−1.947% to makePunt60.2%−3.0average punt
- Q4 11:09ME 4th & 16 at FIU 34, up 7Numbers favored field goal by 1.5 ptsPunted · 66.9% before the snapGo for it63.7%−2.716% to convertField goal66.5%47% to makePuntTheir call64.9%−1.5average punt
- Q4 6:05FIU 4th & 2 at ME 4, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 30.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call28.2%50% to convertField goal27.4%−0.893% to makePunt13.0%−15.2average punt
- Q4 0:55ME 4th & 15 at FIU 42, up 7Close callWent for it · 89.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call88.9%−0.617% to convertField goal89.5%30% to makePunt89.1%−0.3average punt
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartFIUDrive 1PUNT7 plays · 15 yds · 1:5885% → 85%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
85.1%
Keyone Jenkins pass complete to Dean Patterson for 9 yds to the FIU 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEDrive 2FUMBLE14 plays · 35 yds · 13:1815% → 20%
Q1 13:18
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
84.7%
Keyone Jenkins pass incomplete to Jalen Bracey, broken up by Shakur SmallsSimilar
Q1 13:02
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+15
84.5%
(13:02) Shotgun Robertson,Derek pass incomplete short middle to Gillette,Joe PENALTY FIU Pass Interference (Paulk,Ladarian) 15 yards from UMaine40 to FIU45, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 13:02
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+15
84.5%
Derek Robertson pass complete to Jamie Lamson for 15 yds to the FIU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:02
1ST & 25
OPP 35
+15
84.5%
Florida International Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the FIU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:56
2ND & 15
OPP 24
+1
83.7%
Tristen Kenan run for 1 yd to the FIU 25 Tristen Kenan fumbled, recovered by FIU Brian BladesSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
80.4%
Keyone Jenkins pass complete to Dean Patterson for 9 yds to the FIU 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEDrive 3TD15 plays · 75 yds · 4:1216% → 18%
Q1 12:56
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+15
84.4%
Derek Robertson pass complete to Jamie Lamson for 15 yds to the FIU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:56
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
84.4%
Derek Robertson pass incomplete to Montigo Moss, broken up by D'Verick DanielSimilar
Q1 12:05
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-15
84.1%
Derek Robertson pass complete to Jamie Lamson Maine Penalty, Offensive pass interference (Tristen Kenan) to the FIU 35Similar
Q1 12:05
1ST & 25
OPP 35
+16
84.1%
Tristen Kenan run for 1 yd to the FIU 34 for a 1ST down Florida International Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Jamal Potts) to the FIU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:17
2ND & 15
OPP 24
-1
83.8%
Tristen Kenan run for a loss of 1 yard to the FIU 25 Tristen Kenan fumbled, recovered by FIU Brian BladesSimilar
Q1 10:56
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
84.0%
Keyone Jenkins pass complete to Dean Patterson for 7 yds to the FIU 32Similar
Q1 10:56
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-5
84.2%
Keyone Jenkins sacked by Vince Thomas for a loss of 5 yards to the FIU 41Similar
Q1 10:56
2ND & 15
OWN 41
+31
84.0%
Keyone Jenkins pass complete to Kris Mitchell for 31 yds TEAM fumbled, recovered by FIU for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:44
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+18
83.7%
Keyone Jenkins run for 28 yds Florida International Penalty, Offensive Holding (Eric Rivers) to the ME 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEDrive 4PUNT8 plays · 4 yds · 3:5217% → 19%
FIUDrive 5DOWNS5 plays · -3 yds · 1:2181% → 80%
Q1 5:37
4TH & 4
OPP 34
-9
80.0%
Keyone Jenkins sacked by John Costanza for a loss of 9 yards to the ME 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEDrive 6FG6 plays · 28 yds · 1:4921% → 22%
Q1 5:37
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+25
79.1%
Derek Robertson pass complete to Montigo Moss for 25 yds to the FIU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 7INT8 plays · 48 yds · 3:0079% → 77%
MEDrive 8PUNT10 plays · 28 yds · 3:4124% → 27%
Q1 0:00
3RD & 4
OWN 26
+5
75.7%
Derek Robertson pass complete to Jamie Lamson for 5 yds to the ME 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 32
+9
76.0%
(14:17) No Huddle-Shotgun Robertson,Derek pass incomplete short right to Lamson,Jamie, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY FIU Pass Interference (Masses,Hezekiah) 9 yards from UMaine32 to UMaine41, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 46
+2
75.0%
Derek Robertson pass complete to Michael Monios for 2 yds to the ME 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 9PUNT4 plays · -5 yds · 1:2373% → 71%
Q2 12:07
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
73.4%
Keyone Jenkins pass complete to Kris Mitchell for 3 yds to the FIU 23Similar
Q2 12:07
3RD & 7
OWN 23
-8
72.8%
Keyone Jenkins sacked by Izaiah Henderson for a loss of 8 yards to the FIU 15Similar
Q2 10:44
4TH & 15
OWN 15
0
71.2%
Daton Montiel punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Joe Gillette at the ME 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEDrive 10MISSED FG8 plays · 30 yds · 2:5329% → 33%
FIUDrive 11PUNT4 plays · 7 yds · 2:0569% → 67%
Q2 7:51
3RD & 9
OWN 33
+6
68.1%
Keyone Jenkins pass complete to Kris Mitchell for 6 yds to the FIU 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEDrive 12PUNT4 plays · 8 yds · 1:4334% → 34%
MEDrive 13FG6 plays · 27 yds · 1:5939% → 41%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 14TD4 plays · 69 yds · 0:1663% → 64%
MEDrive 15END OF HALF9 plays · 35 yds · 1:3740% → 46%
Q2 1:37
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+3
60.5%
Derek Robertson pass complete to Rohan Jones for 3 yds to the ME 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEDrive 16TD13 plays · 81 yds · 5:4841% → 52%
Q3 14:47
3RD & 3
OWN 26
+14
58.8%
Derek Robertson pass complete to Jamie Lamson for 14 yds to the ME 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:47
2ND & 13
OWN 37
+7
58.8%
Derek Robertson pass complete to Cooper Heisey for 7 yds to the ME 44Similar
Q3 14:47
3RD & 6
OWN 44
+11
56.9%
Derek Robertson pass complete to Cooper Heisey for 11 yds to the FIU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:47
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+13
56.0%
Derek Robertson pass complete to Montigo Moss for 13 yds to the FIU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:47
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+12
55.8%
Derek Robertson pass complete to Montigo Moss for 12 yds to the FIU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:47
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+8
55.6%
Derek Robertson pass complete to Tristen Kenan for 8 yds to the FIU 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 17PUNT5 plays · 0 yds · 0:1954% → 51%
Q3 8:40
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
51.3%
Daton Montiel punt for 27 yds, fair catch by Joe Gillette at the ME 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEDrive 18DOWNS7 plays · 47 yds · 4:0351% → 56%
Q3 8:40
2ND & 8
50
+13
48.6%
Derek Robertson pass complete to Braeden Heald for 13 yds to the FIU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 19PUNT8 plays · 49 yds · 2:5848% → 46%
Q3 4:37
3RD & 11
OWN 6
+46
46.8%
Keyone Jenkins pass complete to Kris Mitchell for 46 yds to the ME 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:37
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-5
53.9%
(03:12) PENALTY FIU Delay Of Game (Jenkins,Keyone) 5 yards from UMaine48 to FIU47. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:37
1ST & 15
OWN 47
+7
51.0%
Keyone Jenkins pass complete to Dean Patterson for 7 yds to the ME 46Similar
Q3 1:39
4TH & 8
OPP 46
0
45.5%
Daton Montiel punt for 27 yds, fair catch by Joe Gillette at the ME 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEDrive 20PUNT12 plays · 47 yds · 5:3059% → 66%
Q3 1:39
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+14
41.3%
Derek Robertson pass complete to Tristen Kenan for 14 yds to the ME 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 4
OWN 39
+4
35.7%
Derek Robertson run for 4 yds to the FIU 41 Derek Robertson fumbled, recovered by ME John Gay for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+6
34.7%
Derek Robertson pass complete to Jamie Lamson for 6 yds to the FIU 35Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 3
OPP 34
+6
37.7%
Derek Robertson pass complete to Jamie Lamson for 6 yds to the FIU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 27
-7
33.9%
Derek Robertson sacked by Alex Nobles for a loss of 7 yards to the FIU 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 21FUMBLE8 plays · 79 yds · 5:0437% → 31%
Q4 11:09
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+11
37.3%
Keyone Jenkins pass complete to Kris Mitchell for 11 yds to the FIU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:09
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+36
37.6%
Keyone Jenkins pass complete to Dean Patterson for 36 yds to the ME 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:09
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+16
46.6%
Keyone Jenkins pass complete to Kris Mitchell for 16 yds to the ME 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:05
4TH & 2
OPP 4
+7
31.2%
John Bock II run for 7 yds to the ME 11 John Bock II fumbled, recovered by ME Tristen KenanSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEDrive 22DOWNS16 plays · 47 yds · 5:1079% → 89%
Q4 6:05
3RD & 14
OWN 7
+15
23.1%
Florida International Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Larry Preston) to the ME 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:05
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+2
20.5%
Tristen Kenan run for 2 yds to the ME 24 Tristen Kenan fumbled, recovered by ME Tristen KenanSimilar
Q4 6:05
2ND & 8
OWN 24
+14
20.5%
Derek Robertson pass complete to Trevin Ewing for 14 yds to the ME 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:05
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+5
18.8%
(04:42) PENALTY FIU Offside (Davis,Keegan) 5 yards from UMaine38 to UMaine43. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:05
3RD & 5
OWN 43
+12
18.8%
Derek Robertson pass complete to Michael Monios for 12 yds to the FIU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:05
3RD & 7
OPP 42
+5
17.7%
(03:07) No Huddle-Shotgun Robertson,Derek pass incomplete short left to Heisey,Cooper broken up by Anderson-Taylor,Elijah PENALTY FIU Pass Interference (Preston,Larry) 5 yards from FIU42 to FIU37, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:05
2ND & 11
OPP 38
+4
17.3%
Derek Robertson pass complete to Tristen Kenan for 4 yds to the FIU 34Similar
Q4 6:05
3RD & 7
OPP 34
-8
17.5%
Derek Robertson sacked by Jordan Guerad for a loss of 8 yards to the FIU 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+87.3
FUMBLE · Q4 6:05
John Bock II run for 7 yds to the ME 11 John Bock II fumbled, recovered by ME Tristen Kenan
-12.7
KEY PLAY · Q4 6:05
Tristen Kenan run for 2 yds to the ME 13
-10.5