Try the model
SHSU

Sam Houston 0 at BYU 14

BYU
2023 · Week 1 · Sep 2, 2023 · LaVell Edwards Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · BYU
modelBYU aheadSHSU aheadconfidence bandkey playBYU scoreSHSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 12:33 · Ryan Rehkow run for 5 yds to the BYU 20
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+40.0+20.00−20.0−40.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 95Pregame prior+21.4Home team on offense+6.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.7Score differential+1.9Garbage-time factor+1.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.1
This game in five plays
  1. KEY PLAY · Q3 14:54: Christian Pavon kickoff for 65 yds , Parker Kingston return for 21 yds to the BYU 21 — SHSU win probability +5.0 pts (now 15%) (top driver: SHSU has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q3 4:45: LJ Martin run for 6 yds to the SHSU 49 — BYU win probability +5.8 pts (now 87%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 14:49: Kedon Slovis run for 1 yd for a TD — BYU win probability +8.5 pts (now 97%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 14:49: Will Ferrin kickoff for 64 yds — BYU win probability +4.1 pts (now 98%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 14:49: Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Noah Smith for 5 yds to the SHSU 40 — SHSU win probability +4.1 pts (now 6%) (top driver: SHSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BYU made the numbers' call on 11 of 14SHSU made the numbers' call on 8 of 11
  1. Q1 13:33SHSU 4th & 15 at SHSU 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.8%−0.2
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:27SHSU 4th & 20 at SHSU 15, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.2%−0.2
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.4%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:17BYU 4th & 16 at SHSU 46, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.0%−0.2
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    89.0%−0.2
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    89.2%
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:23SHSU 4th & 6 at SHSU 14, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.6%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.7%
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:31BYU 4th & 3 at SHSU 32, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 88.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    88.6%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    88.4%−0.2
    51% to make
    Punt
    88.2%−0.4
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:55SHSU 4th & 12 at SHSU 48, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.6%−0.3
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.9%
    average punt
  7. Q2 13:39BYU 4th & 7 at BYU 30, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.4%−0.2
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.5%
    average punt
  8. Q2 11:34SHSU 4th & 4 at SHSU 33, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.5%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.6%
    average punt
  9. Q2 9:28BYU 4th & 2 at BYU 30, up 7
    Close callPunted · 86.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.5%−0.4
    average punt
  10. Q2 7:16SHSU 4th & 7 at BYU 37, down 7
    Close callPunted · 13.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.5%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    13.2%−0.3
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    13.0%−0.4
    average punt
  11. Q2 5:09BYU 4th & 14 at BYU 27, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.9%−1.0
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.9%
    average punt
  12. Q2 5:09BYU 4th & 14 at BYU 27, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.9%−1.0
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.9%
    average punt
  13. Q2 1:27SHSU 4th & 1 at SHSU 23, down 7
    Close callPunted · 13.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.3%−0.5
    average punt
  14. Q2 0:59BYU 4th & 10 at BYU 36, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.1%−0.8
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.0%
    average punt
  15. Q3 12:33BYU 4th & 6 at BYU 25, up 7
    Close callWent for it · 84.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    84.3%−0.7
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    85.0%
    average punt
  16. Q3 8:29BYU 4th & 5 at BYU 37, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.3%−0.3
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.6%
    average punt
  17. Q3 8:29BYU 4th & 5 at BYU 37, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.3%−0.3
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.6%
    average punt
  18. Q3 1:45BYU 4th & 1 at SHSU 26, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 86.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    86.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    84.8%−2.0
    64% to make
    Punt
    80.0%−6.9
    average punt
  19. Q4 13:32SHSU 4th & 5 at SHSU 40, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.6%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.6%
    average punt
  20. Q4 10:36BYU 4th & 3 at midfield, up 14
    Close callPunted · 95.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.2%−0.7
    average punt
  21. Q4 7:48SHSU 4th & 14 at SHSU 38, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.4%−0.3
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.7%
    average punt
  22. Q4 6:29BYU 4th & 3 at BYU 21, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.3%−0.1
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.4%
    average punt
  23. Q4 3:49SHSU 4th & 3 at SHSU 36, down 14
    Close callPunted · 4.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.0%−0.7
    average punt
  24. Q4 1:15BYU 4th & 3 at BYU 25, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.7%−0.1
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.7%
    average punt
  25. Q4 0:20SHSU 4th & 19 at SHSU 28, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.9%
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.8%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BYU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 10:39BYU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q4 14:49BYU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SHSUDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · -5 yds · 1:2710% → 11%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
89.7%
Zach Hrbacek run for 7 yds to the SHSU 32Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 32
0
89.7%
Keegan Shoemaker pass incomplete to Jay RockwellSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 32
-12
89.7%
Keegan Shoemaker sacked by Tyler Batty for a loss of 12 yards to the SHSU 20Similar
Q1 13:33
4TH & 15
OWN 20
+14
89.4%
Jadon Cardell punt for 44 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the 50 yard line , Hobbs Nyberg returns for 14 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 2TD
8 plays · 50 yds · 2:5489% → 90%
Q1 13:33
1ST & 10
50
+3
89.4%
Aidan Robbins run for 3 yds to the SHSU 47Similar
Q1 13:33
2ND & 7
OPP 47
+3
89.4%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Keelan Marion for 3 yds to the SHSU 44Similar
Q1 13:33
3RD & 4
OPP 44
+16
89.4%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Chase Roberts for 16 yds to the SHSU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:33
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
89.5%
Kedon Slovis pass incomplete to Darius LassiterSimilar
Q1 13:33
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+4
89.5%
Aidan Robbins run for 4 yds to the SHSU 24Similar
Q1 13:33
3RD & 6
OPP 24
+10
89.4%
Aidan Robbins run for 10 yds to the SHSU 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:33
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+9
89.5%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Chase Roberts for 9 yds to the SHSU 5Similar
Q1 10:39
2ND & 1
OPP 5
+5
89.5%
Kedon Slovis run for 5 yds for a TD (Will Ferrin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · -10 yds · 2:1211% → 11%
Q1 10:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
89.1%
Noah Smith run for 5 yds to the SHSU 30Similar
Q1 10:39
2ND & 20
OWN 15
+4
89.1%
Zach Hrbacek run for 4 yds to the SHSU 11Similar
Q1 10:39
3RD & 24
OWN 11
+4
89.2%
Keegan Shoemaker run for 4 yds to the SHSU 15Similar
Q1 8:27
4TH & 20
OWN 15
+4
89.1%
Jadon Cardell punt for 47 yds , Hobbs Nyberg returns for 4 yds to the BYU 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 12 yds · 2:1089% → 89%
Q1 8:27
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+18
89.2%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Darius Lassiter for 18 yds to the SHSU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:27
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
89.2%
Kedon Slovis pass incomplete to Keelan MarionSimilar
Q1 8:27
2ND & 10
OPP 40
-10
89.2%
Shotgun Slovis,Kedon pass complete short left to Smith,Deion for 12 yards to the SHSU28 (Williams,Trevor) PENALTY BYU Illegal Block in Back (Lapuaho,Weylin) 10 yards from SHSU40 to SHSU50. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:27
2ND & 20
50
+4
89.1%
Parker Kingston run for 4 yds to the SHSU 46Similar
Q1 8:27
3RD & 16
OPP 46
0
89.0%
Kedon Slovis pass incomplete to Isaac RexSimilar
Q1 6:17
4TH & 16
OPP 46
0
88.6%
Ryan Rehkow punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Noah Smith at the SHSU 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:5412% → 11%
Q1 6:17
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+4
88.5%
John Gentry run for 4 yds to the SHSU 14Similar
Q1 6:17
2ND & 6
OWN 14
0
88.5%
Keegan Shoemaker pass incomplete to Shane JohnsonSimilar
Q1 6:17
3RD & 6
OWN 14
0
88.7%
Keegan Shoemaker pass incomplete to Noah SmithSimilar
Q1 5:23
4TH & 6
OWN 14
+3
88.6%
Jadon Cardell punt for 42 yds , Hobbs Nyberg returns for 3 yds to the BYU 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 6DOWNS
7 plays · 21 yds · 2:5289% → 88%
Q1 5:23
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
88.9%
Aidan Robbins run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 5:23
2ND & 7
50
+11
88.9%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Mason Fakahua for 11 yds to the SHSU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:23
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+1
89.0%
Aidan Robbins run for 1 yd to the SHSU 38Similar
Q1 5:23
2ND & 9
OPP 38
+4
89.0%
Kedon Slovis run for 4 yds to the SHSU 34Similar
Q1 5:23
3RD & 5
OPP 34
+2
88.9%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Chase Roberts for 2 yds to the SHSU 32Similar
Q1 2:31
4TH & 3
OPP 32
0
87.9%
Kedon Slovis pass incomplete to Keelan MarionSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 16 yds · 2:3612% → 12%
Q1 2:31
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
87.6%
PENALTY BYU Delay Of Game (Haws,Caden) 5 yards from SHSU32 to SHSU37. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 2:31
1ST & 5
OWN 37
+13
87.4%
Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Shane Johnson for 13 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:31
1ST & 10
50
+2
87.2%
Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to John Gentry for 2 yds to the SHSU 48Similar
Q1 2:31
2ND & 12
OWN 48
+1
87.5%
John Gentry run for 1 yd to the SHSU 47Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 13
OWN 47
+1
87.4%
Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Shane Johnson for 1 yd to the SHSU 48Similar
Q2 14:55
4TH & 12
OWN 48
+25
87.7%
Jadon Cardell punt for 15 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BYU 37 for a 1ST down BYU Penalty, Defensive Holding (Preston Rex) to the BYU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:1687% → 87%
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
87.3%
Kedon Slovis pass incomplete to Chase RobertsSimilar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+3
87.2%
Deion Smith run for 3 yds to the BYU 30Similar
Q2 14:55
3RD & 7
OWN 30
0
87.1%
Shotgun Slovis,Kedon pass complete short right to Rex,Isaac for 13 yards to the BYU43 (Gaither,Kavian) PENALTY BYU Illegal Block in Back declined BYU Illegal Touch-Pass (Rex,Isaac). NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:39
4TH & 7
OWN 30
+10
86.5%
Ryan Rehkow punt for 53 yds , Noah Smith returns for 10 yds to the SHSU 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 2:0513% → 13%
Q2 13:39
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+1
87.0%
Zach Hrbacek run for 1 yd to the SHSU 26Similar
Q2 13:39
2ND & 11
OWN 26
+3
87.2%
Malik Phillips run for 3 yds to the SHSU 29Similar
Q2 13:39
3RD & 8
OWN 29
+4
87.4%
Keegan Shoemaker run for 4 yds to the SHSU 33Similar
Q2 11:34
4TH & 4
OWN 33
0
87.0%
Jadon Cardell punt for 45 yds , Hobbs Nyberg returns for no gain to the BYU 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 2:0688% → 87%
Q2 11:34
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+1
87.8%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Deion Smith for 1 yd to the BYU 23Similar
Q2 11:34
2ND & 9
OWN 23
+1
87.7%
Deion Smith run for 1 yd to the BYU 22Similar
Q2 11:34
3RD & 10
OWN 22
+8
87.5%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Parker Kingston for 8 yds to the BYU 30Similar
Q2 9:28
4TH & 2
OWN 30
0
86.8%
Ryan Rehkow punt for 48 yds , Noah Smith returns for no gain to the SHSU 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 11PUNT
8 plays · 41 yds · 2:1213% → 12%
Q2 9:28
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+18
87.0%
Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Charles Crawford III for 18 yds to the SHSU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:28
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+20
86.4%
Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Malik Phillips for 20 yds to the BYU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:28
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
85.8%
Charles Crawford III run for no gain to the BYU 40Similar
Q2 9:28
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+3
85.8%
Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Jay Rockwell for 3 yds to the BYU 37Similar
Q2 9:28
3RD & 7
OPP 37
0
85.9%
Keegan Shoemaker pass incomplete to Jay RockwellSimilar
Q2 7:16
4TH & 7
OPP 37
0
87.6%
Jadon Cardell punt for 37 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 12PUNT
9 plays · 7 yds · 2:0789% → 88%
Q2 7:16
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
88.9%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Mason Fakahua for 4 yds to the BYU 24Similar
Q2 7:16
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+7
88.9%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Mason Fakahua for 7 yds to the BYU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:16
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
89.1%
Kedon Slovis pass incomplete to Mata'ava Ta'aseSimilar
Q2 7:16
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+4
88.9%
Deion Smith run for 4 yds to the BYU 27Similar
Q2 5:25
3RD & 14
OWN 27
0
88.4%
Kedon Slovis pass incomplete to Isaac RexSimilar
Q2 5:09
4TH & 14
OWN 27
0
88.1%
Ryan Rehkow punt for 65 yds , Zach Hrbacek returns for no gain to the SHSU 6Similar
Q2 5:09
4TH & 14
OWN 27
0
88.1%
Ryan Rehkow punt for 65 yds , Zach Hrbacek returns for no gain to the SHSU 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 13PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 3:4212% → 10%
Q2 5:09
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+7
88.4%
John Gentry run for 7 yds to the SHSU 10Similar
Q2 5:09
2ND & 3
OWN 10
+4
88.5%
Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Jax Sherrard for 4 yds to the SHSU 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:09
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+1
88.4%
Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Ife Adeyi for 1 yd to the SHSU 15Similar
Q2 5:09
2ND & 9
OWN 15
+8
88.5%
Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to John Gentry for 8 yds to the SHSU 23Similar
Q2 5:09
3RD & 1
OWN 23
0
88.6%
John Gentry run for no gain to the SHSU 23Similar
Q2 1:27
4TH & 1
OWN 23
0
89.9%
Jadon Cardell punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Hobbs Nyberg at the BYU 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:2889% → 88%
Q2 1:27
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
89.1%
Kedon Slovis pass incomplete to Isaac RexSimilar
Q2 1:27
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+5
88.8%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Parker Kingston for 5 yds to the BYU 41Similar
Q2 1:27
3RD & 5
OWN 41
-5
88.9%
PENALTY BYU Delay Of Game (Slovis,Kedon) 5 yards from BYU41 to BYU36. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:27
3RD & 10
OWN 36
0
88.4%
Kedon Slovis pass incomplete to Isaac RexSimilar
Q2 0:59
4TH & 10
OWN 36
0
88.1%
Ryan Rehkow punt for 53 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 15END OF HALF
3 plays · -1 yds · 0:5911% → 11%
Q2 0:59
1ST & 10
OWN 11
0
89.2%
Zach Hrbacek run for no gain to the SHSU 11Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 11
-1
89.5%
K. Shoemaker takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 16DOWNS
7 plays · -1 yds · 2:2185% → 83%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
85.1%
Aidan Robbins run for no gain to the BYU 21Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+5
84.9%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Chase Roberts for 5 yds to the BYU 26Similar
Q3 14:54
3RD & 5
OWN 26
-13
84.6%
Shotgun Slovis,Kedon pass complete short to Roberts,Chase for 8 yards to the BYU34 (Weaver,Caleb) PENALTY BYU Illegal Use Of Hands (Suamataia,Kingsley) 13 yards from BYU26 to BYU13. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 14:54
3RD & 18
OWN 13
+12
84.2%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Isaac Rex for 12 yds to the BYU 25Similar
Q3 12:33
4TH & 6
OWN 25
+5
83.1%
Ryan Rehkow run for 5 yds to the BYU 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 17INT
3 plays · 14 yds · 0:5619% → 20%
Q3 12:33
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+15
80.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun Shoemaker,Keegan pass incomplete deep left to Adeyi,Ife broken up by Garrett,Kamden QB hurried by Batty,Tyler, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY BYU Pass Interference (Garrett,Kamden) 15 yards from BYU20 to BYU05, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 12:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
80.7%
Zach Hrbacek run for 1 yd to the BYU 6Similar
Q3 11:37
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
80.4%
Keegan Shoemaker pass intercepted, touchback.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 18PUNT
9 plays · 9 yds · 3:0884% → 84%
Q3 11:37
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
84.2%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Aidan Robbins for 1 yd to the BYU 21Similar
Q3 11:37
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+11
84.0%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Darius Lassiter for 11 yds to the BYU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:37
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-8
84.4%
BYU Penalty, Offensive Holding (-8 Yards) to the BYU 24Similar
Q3 11:37
1ST & 18
OWN 24
+8
84.1%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Darius Lassiter for 8 yds to the BYU 32Similar
Q3 11:37
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+5
84.2%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Mason Fakahua for 5 yds to the BYU 37Similar
Q3 11:37
3RD & 5
OWN 37
0
84.3%
BYU Penalty, Offensive Holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 8:29
4TH & 5
OWN 37
+9
84.1%
Ryan Rehkow punt for 53 yds , Noah Smith returns for 9 yds to the SHSU 19Similar
Q3 8:29
4TH & 5
OWN 37
+9
84.1%
Ryan Rehkow punt for 53 yds , Noah Smith returns for 9 yds to the SHSU 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 19INT
10 plays · 41 yds · 3:4417% → 19%
Q3 8:29
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+1
83.0%
John Gentry run for 1 yd to the SHSU 6Similar
Q3 8:29
2ND & 9
OWN 6
+2
83.3%
John Gentry run for 2 yds to the SHSU 8Similar
Q3 8:29
3RD & 7
OWN 8
+24
84.0%
Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Noah Smith for 24 yds to the SHSU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:29
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
81.9%
John Gentry run for 5 yds to the SHSU 37Similar
Q3 8:29
2ND & 5
OWN 37
0
81.1%
Keegan Shoemaker pass incomplete to Shane JohnsonSimilar
Q3 8:29
3RD & 5
OWN 37
+7
82.0%
Keegan Shoemaker run for 7 yds to the SHSU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:29
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
81.0%
Keegan Shoemaker pass incomplete to Noah SmithSimilar
Q3 8:29
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+2
81.6%
Keegan Shoemaker run for 2 yds to the SHSU 46Similar
Q3 4:45
3RD & 8
OWN 46
0
81.3%
Keegan Shoemaker pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 20TD
13 plays · 55 yds · 4:5687% → 97%
Q3 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+6
87.1%
LJ Martin run for 6 yds to the SHSU 49Similar
Q3 4:45
2ND & 4
OPP 49
+2
87.3%
LJ Martin run for 2 yds to the SHSU 47Similar
Q3 4:45
3RD & 2
OPP 47
+12
86.5%
LJ Martin run for 12 yds to the SHSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:45
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+1
87.7%
LJ Martin run for 1 yd to the SHSU 34Similar
Q3 4:45
2ND & 9
OPP 34
0
87.5%
Kedon Slovis pass incomplete to Darius LassiterSimilar
Q3 4:45
3RD & 9
OPP 34
+3
86.7%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Isaac Rex for 3 yds to the SHSU 31Similar
Q3 1:45
4TH & 1
OPP 26
+7
85.9%
LJ Martin run for 7 yds to the SHSU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:45
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+10
87.7%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Chase Roberts for 10 yds to the SHSU 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+8
88.9%
LJ Martin run for 8 yds to the SHSU 1Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
88.7%
Kedon Slovis run for no gain to the SHSU 1Similar
Q4 14:49
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
97.2%
Kedon Slovis run for 1 yd for a TDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:176% → 6%
Q4 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
93.9%
Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Noah Smith for 5 yds to the SHSU 40Similar
Q4 14:49
2ND & 5
OWN 40
0
93.9%
Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Zach Hrbacek for no gain to the SHSU 40Similar
Q4 14:49
3RD & 5
OWN 40
0
93.9%
Keegan Shoemaker pass incomplete to Ife AdeyiSimilar
Q4 13:32
4TH & 5
OWN 40
0
94.3%
Jadon Cardell punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Hobbs Nyberg at the BYU 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 22PUNT
7 plays · 35 yds · 2:5698% → 99%
Q4 13:32
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+1
98.2%
LJ Martin run for 1 yd to the BYU 16Similar
Q4 13:32
2ND & 9
OWN 16
+6
98.2%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Darius Lassiter for 6 yds to the BYU 22Similar
Q4 13:32
3RD & 3
OWN 22
+21
98.2%
LJ Martin run for 21 yds to the BYU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:32
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
98.3%
LJ Martin run for 5 yds to the BYU 48Similar
Q4 13:32
2ND & 5
OWN 48
0
98.3%
Kedon Slovis pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:32
3RD & 5
OWN 48
+2
98.2%
Aidan Robbins run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 10:36
4TH & 3
50
0
98.6%
Ryan Rehkow punt for 50 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 23PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 2:484% → 3%
Q4 10:36
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+22
96.3%
Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Ife Adeyi for 22 yds to the SHSU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:36
1ST & 15
OWN 37
0
96.3%
Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to John Gentry for no gain to the SHSU 37Similar
Q4 10:36
2ND & 15
OWN 37
+1
96.4%
John Gentry run for 1 yd to the SHSU 38Similar
Q4 10:36
3RD & 14
OWN 38
0
96.4%
Keegan Shoemaker pass incomplete to Shane JohnsonSimilar
Q4 7:48
4TH & 14
OWN 38
+1
96.8%
Jadon Cardell punt for 49 yds , Hobbs Nyberg returns for 1 yd to the BYU 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 24PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:1999% → 99%
Q4 7:48
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+1
99.0%
LJ Martin run for 1 yd to the BYU 15Similar
Q4 7:48
2ND & 9
OWN 15
+6
99.0%
LJ Martin run for 6 yds to the BYU 21Similar
Q4 7:48
3RD & 3
OWN 21
0
99.0%
Kedon Slovis pass incomplete to Chase RobertsSimilar
Q4 6:29
4TH & 3
OWN 21
0
99.0%
Ryan Rehkow punt for 64 yds, fair catch by Trey Fields at the SHSU 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 25PUNT
6 plays · 21 yds · 2:403% → 2%
Q4 6:29
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+5
97.2%
Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Ife Adeyi for 5 yds to the SHSU 20Similar
Q4 6:29
2ND & 5
OWN 20
+9
97.2%
Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Jay Rockwell for 9 yds to the SHSU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:29
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+1
97.1%
Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Zach Hrbacek for 1 yd to the SHSU 30Similar
Q4 6:29
2ND & 9
OWN 30
+8
97.1%
Keegan Shoemaker run for 8 yds to the SHSU 38Similar
Q4 6:29
3RD & 1
OWN 38
+2
97.2%
Malik Phillips run for 2 yds to the SHSU 36Similar
Q4 3:49
4TH & 3
OWN 36
0
97.9%
Jadon Cardell punt for 60 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 26PUNT
8 plays · 21 yds · 2:34100% → 100%
Q4 3:49
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+2
99.6%
LJ Martin run for 2 yds to the BYU 6Similar
Q4 3:43
2ND & 8
OWN 6
+12
99.5%
LJ Martin run for 12 yds to the BYU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:43
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+2
99.4%
LJ Martin run for 2 yds to the BYU 20Similar
Q4 2:53
2ND & 8
OWN 20
+1
99.5%
LJ Martin run for 1 yd to the BYU 21Similar
Q4 2:53
3RD & 7
OWN 21
+4
99.5%
LJ Martin run for 4 yds to the BYU 25Similar
Q4 1:15
4TH & 3
OWN 25
+9
99.5%
Ryan Rehkow punt for 57 yds , Trey Fields returns for 9 yds to the SHSU 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 27INT
6 plays · 1 yds · 0:551% → 1%
Q4 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
98.8%
Keegan Shoemaker pass incomplete to Noah SmithSimilar
Q4 1:15
2ND & 15
OWN 22
+15
98.9%
Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Noah Smith for 15 yds to the SHSU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
98.8%
Keegan Shoemaker pass incomplete to Noah SmithSimilar
Q4 1:15
2ND & 19
OWN 28
0
98.9%
Keegan Shoemaker pass incomplete to Jay RockwellSimilar
Q4 1:15
3RD & 19
OWN 28
0
98.9%
Keegan Shoemaker pass incomplete to Noah SmithSimilar
Q4 0:20
4TH & 19
OWN 28
0
98.9%
Keegan Shoemaker pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 28END OF GAME
1 play · -1 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-1
99.5%
K. Slovis takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 14:49
Kedon Slovis run for 1 yd for a TD
+8.5
KEY PLAY · Q3 4:45
LJ Martin run for 6 yds to the SHSU 49
+5.8
KEY PLAY · Q3 14:54
Christian Pavon kickoff for 65 yds , Parker Kingston return for 21 yds to the BYU 21
-5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com