2023 · Week 1 · Sep 2, 2023 · Jordan-Hare Stadium
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Win probability · AUB
modelAUB aheadMASS aheadconfidence bandkey playAUB scoreMASS score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:12 · TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the MASS 9
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 7:20: Taisun Phommachanh run for 1 yd for a TD (Cameron Carson KICK) — MASS win probability +0.2 pts (now 2%) (top driver: MASS has the ball).
- TD · Q2 14:55: Robby Ashford run for 10 yds for a TD (Alex McPherson KICK) — AUB win probability +0.3 pts (now 98%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
- TD · Q2 10:11: Robby Ashford run for 1 yd for a TD (Alex McPherson KICK) — AUB win probability +1.2 pts (now 99%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
- TD · Q2 4:42: Robby Ashford run for 4 yds for a TD (Alex McPherson KICK) — AUB win probability +0.7 pts (now 99%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
- TD · Q3 14:43: Taisun Phommachanh pass intercepted for a TD Jaylin Simpson return for 50 yds for a TD (Alex McPherson KICK) — AUB win probability +0.9 pts (now 100%) (top driver: MASS has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
AUB made the numbers' call on 3 of 4MASS made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
- Q1 2:11AUB 4th & 6 at MASS 19, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 96.9% before the snapGo for it96.8%−<0.138% to convertField goalTheir call96.9%77% to makePunt96.5%−0.4average punt
- Q1 0:28MASS 4th & 7 at MASS 28, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.2% before the snapGo for it3.2%−0.136% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.3%average punt
- Q2 13:26MASS 4th & 4 at MASS 31, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.9% before the snapGo for it2.9%−0.148% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.0%average punt
- Q2 0:32MASS 4th & 10 at AUB 24, down 24Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 1.6% before the snapGo for it1.4%−0.228% to convertField goalTheir call1.6%68% to makePunt1.0%−0.5average punt
- Q2 0:04AUB 4th & 4 at AUB 30, up 24Close callPunted · 98.7% before the snapGo for it98.5%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call98.4%−<0.1average punt
- Q3 13:02MASS 4th & 13 at MASS 7, down 31Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.1%−0.118% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.3%average punt
- Q3 9:59MASS 4th & 10 at MASS 25, down 38Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.2%−0.128% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.3%average punt
- Q3 7:07AUB 4th & 20 at AUB 32, up 38Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.8% before the snapGo for it99.7%−0.29% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.9%average punt
- Q3 5:36MASS 4th & 5 at MASS 42, down 38Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.1%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt0.2%average punt
- Q4 14:50MASS 4th & 2 at AUB 30, down 45Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.1%57% to convertField goal0.0%−0.156% to makePunt-0.1%−0.2average punt
- Q4 9:04AUB 4th & 6 at MASS 42, up 45Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.9%40% to convertField goal99.8%−0.130% to makePunt99.9%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 5:19MASS 4th & 6 at MASS 29, down 45Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.0%−<0.139% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.0%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
AUB made the numbers' call on 8 of 8MASS made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q1 11:28AUB Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.4%97% to makeGo for two98.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 7:20MASS Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call2.4%97% to makeGo for two2.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 14:55AUB Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.2%97% to makeGo for two97.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 10:11AUB Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.6%97% to makeGo for two97.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 4:42AUB Touchdown, up 23 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.7%97% to makeGo for two98.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 14:43AUB Touchdown, up 30 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.7%97% to makeGo for two99.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 12:52AUB Touchdown, up 37 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 5:25AUB Touchdown, up 44 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 8:50MASS Touchdown, down 39 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call0.1%97% to makeGo for two0.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 7:02AUB Touchdown, up 44 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartAUBDrive 1TD12 plays · 62 yds · 3:1799% → 99%
Q1 11:30
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+12
98.8%
Brian Battie run for 9 yds to the MASS 5 for a 1ST down Massachusetts Penalty, Personal Foul (Eni Falayi) to the MASS 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 2TD9 plays · 89 yds · 4:011% → 2%
Q1 11:21
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+13
98.8%
Taisun Phommachanh pass complete to George Johnson III for 13 yds to the MASS 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 3FG16 plays · 51 yds · 4:5298% → 98%
Q1 6:38
2ND & 7
OWN 33
+10
98.3%
Thorne, Payton pass incomplete to Fair, Jay, PENALTY MASS holding (Powell, Te'Rai) 10 yards to the AUBURN43, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN AUBURN.Similar
Q1 5:23
3RD & 5
OPP 39
+5
98.2%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Ja'Varrius Johnson for 5 yds to the MASS 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+7
98.2%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Ja'Varrius Johnson for 7 yds to the MASS 27Similar
Q1 3:55
2ND & 2
OPP 15
-6
98.0%
Robby Ashford pass complete to Jay Fair for 4 yds to the MASS 11 Auburn Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the MASS 21Similar
Q1 2:41
3RD & 9
OPP 22
+3
97.8%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Damari Alston for 3 yds to the MASS 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 4PUNT5 plays · 3 yds · 1:392% → 2%
Q1 2:01
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-3
97.7%
Taisun Phommachanh sacked by Elijah McAllister for a loss of 3 yards to the MASS 22Similar
Q1 1:19
3RD & 13
OWN 22
+6
97.7%
Taisun Phommachanh pass complete to Gino Campiotti for 6 yds to the MASS 28Similar
Q1 0:28
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+56
97.6%
CJ Kolodziey punt for 44 yds , Keionte Scott returns for 56 yds to the MASS 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 5TD2 plays · 16 yds · 0:2698% → 98%
MASSDrive 6PUNT5 plays · 6 yds · 1:232% → 2%
Q2 13:26
4TH & 4
OWN 31
+29
97.8%
CJ Kolodziey punt for 39 yds, downed at the AUB 30 Massachusetts Penalty, Defensive Holding (Eni Falayi) to the AUB 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 7TD10 plays · 60 yds · 3:0998% → 99%
Q2 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-10
97.7%
Cobb, Jeremiah rush for 1 yard to the AUBURN41, PENALTY AUBURN holding (Jones, Avery) 10 yards to the AUBURN30, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:56
1ST & 20
OWN 30
+21
97.5%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Shane Hooks for 21 yds to the MASS 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:34
2ND & 8
OPP 47
+20
97.5%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Shane Hooks for 20 yds to the MASS 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 8FUMBLE6 plays · 23 yds · 2:472% → 2%
Q2 10:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
98.3%
Taisun Phommachanh pass complete to Christian Wells for 13 yds to the MASS 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:43
2ND & 9
OWN 39
+8
98.1%
Taisun Phommachanh pass complete to Greg Desrosiers Jr. for 8 yds to the MASS 47Similar
Q2 7:14
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+13
97.8%
Taisun Phommachanh sacked by Donovan Kaufman for a loss of 6 yards to the MASS 35 Taisun Phommachanh fumbled, forced by Donovan Kaufman, recovered by AUB Jaylin Simpson , return for 0 yards , return for 13 yds to the MASS 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 9TD6 plays · 35 yds · 2:1898% → 99%
Q2 6:34
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+33
98.3%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Koy Moore for 33 yds to the MASS 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 10MISSED FG9 plays · 51 yds · 4:011% → 1%
Q2 4:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
98.8%
Taisun Phommachanh pass complete to Gino Campiotti for 6 yds to the MASS 31Similar
Q2 2:48
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-1
98.5%
Taisun Phommachanh sacked by Marcus Harris for a loss of 1 yard to the AUB 25Similar
Q2 2:03
2ND & 11
OPP 25
+7
98.5%
Taisun Phommachanh pass complete to Anthony Simpson for 7 yds to the AUB 18Similar
Q2 1:43
3RD & 4
OPP 18
-6
98.5%
Taisun Phommachanh sacked by Eugene Asante and Keldric Faulk for a loss of 6 yards to the AUB 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 11PUNT5 plays · 6 yds · 0:2399% → 99%
Q2 0:04
4TH & 4
OWN 30
+17
99.1%
Oscar Chapman punt for 47 yds , Isaac Ross returns for 17 yds to the MASS 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 12END OF HALF1 play · -2 yds · 0:001% → 1%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 13INT TD3 plays · 0 yds · 0:131% → 0%
MASSDrive 14PUNT5 plays · -3 yds · 1:350% → 0%
Q3 14:22
2ND & 8
OWN 12
-5
99.8%
Taisun Phommachanh pass complete to Greg Desrosiers Jr. for a loss of 5 yards to the MASS 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 15TD1 play · 29 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 12:52
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+29
99.8%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jay Fair for 29 yds for a TD (Alex McPherson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 16PUNT7 plays · 0 yds · 2:500% → 0%
Q3 12:18
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-7
99.8%
Kay'Ron Lynch-Adams run for 3 yds to the MASS 28 Massachusetts Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the MASS 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 17PUNT7 plays · 16 yds · 2:47100% → 100%
Q3 9:34
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+15
99.8%
Battie, Brian rush for loss of 4 yards to the AUBURN23, PENALTY MASS personal foul (Wooden, Billy) 15 yards to the AUBURN42, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN AUBURN.Similar
Q3 8:01
2ND & 4
OWN 48
-1
99.9%
Robby Ashford pass complete to Ja'Varrius Johnson for a loss of 1 yard to the AUB 47Similar
Q3 7:45
3RD & 5
OWN 47
-15
99.9%
Ashford, Robby pass complete to Fair, Jay for 6 yards to the MASS47, PENALTY AUBURN face mask (Wade, Dillon) 15 yards to the AUBURN32, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 18DOWNS4 plays · 5 yds · 1:250% → 0%
Q3 6:17
3RD & 12
OWN 35
+7
99.9%
Taisun Phommachanh pass complete to Gino Campiotti for 7 yds to the MASS 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 19TD1 play · 42 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 20DOWNS11 plays · 42 yds · 5:060% → 0%
Q3 4:35
2ND & 4
OWN 34
-5
99.9%
Phommachanh, Taisun pass incomplete, PENALTY MASS illegal shift 5 yards to the MASS29, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:01
2ND & 9
OWN 29
+14
99.9%
Carlos Davis pass complete to Anthony Simpson for 14 yds to the MASS 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:24
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+9
99.9%
Carlos Davis pass complete to George Johnson III for 9 yds to the AUB 48Similar
Q3 2:45
2ND & 1
OPP 48
+10
99.9%
Carlos Davis pass complete to Anthony Simpson for 10 yds to the AUB 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:09
2ND & 15
OPP 43
+13
99.9%
Carlos Davis pass complete to Mark Pope for 13 yds to the AUB 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 21DOWNS11 plays · 28 yds · 5:19100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 22TD1 play · 58 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+58
99.9%
Carlos Davis pass complete to Anthony Simpson for 58 yds for a TD (Cameron Carson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 23TD4 plays · 78 yds · 1:32100% → 100%
Q4 8:34
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+30
99.9%
Holden Geriner pass complete to Malcolm Johnson Jr. for 30 yds to the MASS 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 24PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 1:350% → 0%
AUBDrive 25Uncategorized8 plays · 63 yds · 4:57100% → 100%
Q4 3:02
1ST & 10
50
+29
100.0%
Holden Geriner pass complete to Malcolm Johnson Jr. for 29 yds to the MASS 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 10:11
Robby Ashford run for 1 yd for a TD (Alex McPherson KICK)
+1.2
TD · Q3 14:43
Taisun Phommachanh pass intercepted for a TD Jaylin Simpson return for 50 yds for a TD (Alex McPherson KICK)
+0.9
TD · Q2 4:42
Robby Ashford run for 4 yds for a TD (Alex McPherson KICK)
+0.7