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MTSU

Middle Tennessee 7 at Alabama 56

ALA
2023 · Week 1 · Sep 2, 2023 · Bryant-Denny Stadium
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Win probability · ALA
modelALA aheadMTSU aheadconfidence bandkey playALA scoreMTSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q3Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 12:28 · James Burnip punt for 53 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MTSU 31
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+49.5+24.80−24.8−49.5Q3Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 58Pregame prior+43.5Home team on offense+6.9Score differential+3.8Blowout margin−0.3Garbage-time factor+2.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 0:32: Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Bryce Bailey for 7 yds for a TD (Zeke Rankin KICK) — ALA win probability +0.3 pts (now 75%) (top driver: MTSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 4:15: Jase McClellan run for 1 yd for a TD (Will Reichard KICK) — ALA win probability +0.2 pts (now 99%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 3:07: Jalen Milroe run for 13 yds for a TD (Will Reichard KICK) — ALA win probability +1.4 pts (now 99%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 1:58: Jalen Milroe pass complete to Isaiah Bond for 47 yds for a TD (Will Reichard KICK) — ALA win probability +0.8 pts (now 100%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 12:54: Jalen Milroe pass complete to Jermaine Burton for 48 yds for a TD (Will Reichard KICK) — ALA win probability +0.1 pts (now 100%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ALA made the numbers' call on 3 of 3MTSU made the numbers' call on 9 of 9
  1. Q1 13:47MTSU 4th & 15 at MTSU 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.4%−0.1
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:21MTSU 4th & 8 at MTSU 27, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.8%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.9%
    average punt
  3. Q1 0:20MTSU 4th & 18 at MTSU 38, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.1%−0.2
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.3%
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:28ALA 4th & 15 at ALA 16, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.3%−0.3
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.6%
    average punt
  5. Q2 8:48MTSU 4th & 14 at ALA 14, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 2.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.5%−0.2
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    2.8%
    84% to make
    Punt
    2.0%−0.8
    average punt
  6. Q2 5:48ALA 4th & 12 at ALA 35, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.7%−0.3
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.0%
    average punt
  7. Q2 2:05MTSU 4th & 22 at MTSU 13, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.1%−0.4
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.5%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:53MTSU 4th & 6 at MTSU 40, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.3%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.4%
    average punt
  9. Q3 11:06MTSU 4th & 9 at MTSU 9, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  10. Q3 8:15MTSU 4th & 6 at MTSU 29, down 42
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  11. Q3 6:30ALA 4th & 5 at ALA 30, up 42
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
  12. Q4 0:49MTSU 4th & 10 at MTSU 29, down 49
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.0%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ALA made the numbers' call on 8 of 8
  1. Q1 10:49ALA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 4:15ALA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 3:07ALA Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 1:58ALA Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 12:54ALA Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 10:25ALA Touchdown, up 41 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 10:38ALA Touchdown, up 41 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 5:58ALA Touchdown, up 48 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MTSUDrive 1TD
11 plays · 68 yds · 5:4215% → 25%
Q3 6:14
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
84.7%
Jekail Middlebrook run for 1 yd to the MTSU 31Similar
Q3 5:34
2ND & 11
OWN 31
+21
84.7%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Jekail Middlebrook for 21 yds to the ALA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:01
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+10
81.3%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Jacob Coleman for 10 yds to the ALA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:46
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+6
81.0%
Jekail Middlebrook run for 6 yds to the ALA 32Similar
Q3 3:54
2ND & 4
OPP 32
+3
78.7%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Bryce Bailey for 3 yds to the ALA 29Similar
Q3 3:19
3RD & 1
OPP 29
+7
79.0%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to AJ Toney for 7 yds to the ALA 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:46
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+2
77.0%
Jaiden Credle run for 2 yds to the ALA 20Similar
Q3 2:02
2ND & 8
OPP 20
+12
75.9%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Holden Willis for 12 yds to the ALA 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
75.5%
Jaiden Credle run for no gain to the ALA 8Similar
Q3 1:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+1
74.7%
Braxton Crouse run for 1 yd to the ALA 7Similar
Q3 0:32
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
75.0%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Bryce Bailey for 7 yds for a TD (Zeke Rankin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · -5 yds · 1:071% → 1%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.1%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incomplete to DJ England-ChisolmSimilar
Q1 14:41
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
99.1%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Elijah Metcalf for no gain to the MTSU 25Similar
Q1 14:18
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-5
99.1%
(14:25) PENALTY MT False Start (Peasant,Frank) 5 yards from MT 25 to MT 20. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 13:58
3RD & 15
OWN 20
0
99.0%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incomplete to Frank PeasantSimilar
Q1 13:47
4TH & 15
OWN 20
+1
99.0%
Miles Tillman punt for 59 yds for a 1ST down , Kool-Aid McKinstry returns for 1 yd to the ALA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 3TD
6 plays · 63 yds · 2:3899% → 99%
Q1 13:27
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+7
99.0%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Isaiah Bond for 7 yds to the ALA 44Similar
Q1 13:00
2ND & 3
OWN 44
+4
99.0%
Jase McClellan run for 4 yds to the ALA 40Similar
Q1 12:25
3RD & 7
OWN 40
+15
98.9%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Isaiah Bond for 15 yds to the MTSU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
98.9%
Jase McClellan run for 4 yds to the MTSU 41Similar
Q1 11:26
2ND & 6
OPP 41
+20
98.9%
Jase McClellan run for 20 yds to the MTSU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:49
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+21
98.9%
Jalen Milroe run for 21 yds for a TD (Will Reichard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 2 yds · 1:221% → 1%
Q1 10:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
98.9%
(10:49) No Huddle-Shotgun Vattiato,Nicholas pass complete deep right to Metcalf,Elijah for 27 yards to the ALA48, out of bounds at ALA48 PENALTY MT Ineligible Downfield on Pass (Kelly,Wilson) 5 yards from MT 25 to MT 20. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:09
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+3
98.8%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Jeremy Tate Jr. for 3 yds to the MTSU 23Similar
Q1 9:48
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+4
98.8%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to DJ England-Chisolm for 4 yds to the MTSU 27Similar
Q1 9:31
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
98.8%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incomplete to Javonte ShermanSimilar
Q1 9:21
4TH & 8
OWN 27
+21
98.8%
Trey Turk punt for 41 yds , Kool-Aid McKinstry returns for 21 yds to the MTSU 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 5TD
11 plays · 47 yds · 4:5999% → 99%
Q1 9:14
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+5
98.8%
Roydell Williams run for 5 yds to the MTSU 42Similar
Q1 8:40
2ND & 5
OPP 42
+4
98.8%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Roydell Williams for 4 yds to the MTSU 38Similar
Q1 8:16
3RD & 1
OPP 38
+2
98.7%
Jalen Milroe run for 2 yds to the MTSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:44
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+4
98.7%
Roydell Williams run for 4 yds to the MTSU 32Similar
Q1 7:06
2ND & 6
OPP 32
+5
98.7%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to CJ Dippre for 5 yds to the MTSU 27Similar
Q1 6:42
3RD & 1
OPP 27
+3
98.6%
Roydell Williams run for 3 yds to the MTSU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:08
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+9
98.6%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Jermaine Burton for 9 yds to the MTSU 15Similar
Q1 5:44
2ND & 1
OPP 15
+7
98.6%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Kobe Prentice for 7 yds to the MTSU 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+6
98.5%
Jase McClellan run for 6 yds to the MTSU 2Similar
Q1 4:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
98.5%
Jase McClellan run for 1 yd to the MTSU 1Similar
Q1 4:15
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
98.7%
Jase McClellan run for 1 yd for a TD (Will Reichard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 6PUNT
11 plays · 13 yds · 3:491% → 2%
Q1 4:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
98.6%
Nicholas Vattiato run for 5 yds to the MTSU 30Similar
Q1 3:45
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+6
98.5%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Justin Olson for 6 yds to the MTSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-5
98.6%
PENALTY MT False Start (Graham,Jacqui) 5 yards from MT 36 to MT 31. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:07
1ST & 15
OWN 31
+14
98.6%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Jaiden Credle for 14 yds to the MTSU 45Similar
Q1 2:27
2ND & 1
OWN 45
+1
98.4%
Jaiden Credle run for 1 yd to the MTSU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:07
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+6
98.4%
Nicholas Vattiato run for 6 yds to the ALA 48Similar
Q1 1:48
2ND & 4
OPP 48
-15
98.4%
(01:53) No Huddle-Shotgun Vattiato,Nicholas pass incomplete short left to Willis,Holden PENALTY MT Chop Block (Kelly,Wilson) 15 yards from ALA48 to MT 37. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 1:33
2ND & 19
OWN 37
+9
98.4%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Elijah Metcalf for 9 yds to the MTSU 46Similar
Q1 1:06
3RD & 10
OWN 46
-8
98.4%
Nicholas Vattiato sacked by Quandarrius Robinson for a loss of 8 yards to the MTSU 38Similar
Q1 0:20
4TH & 18
OWN 38
0
98.4%
Miles Tillman punt for 52 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ALA 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 7PUNT
7 plays · 6 yds · 2:3298% → 98%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+7
98.4%
Jase McClellan run for 7 yds to the ALA 17Similar
Q2 14:53
2ND & 3
OWN 17
+2
98.4%
Jase McClellan run for 2 yds to the ALA 19Similar
Q2 14:16
3RD & 1
OWN 19
+2
98.4%
Jase McClellan run for 2 yds to the ALA 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:46
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-10
98.4%
Jalen Milroe sacked by Johnathan Butler for a loss of 10 yards to the ALA 11Similar
Q2 13:02
2ND & 20
OWN 11
+5
98.3%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Malik Benson for 5 yds to the ALA 16Similar
Q2 12:37
3RD & 15
OWN 16
0
98.2%
Jalen Milroe pass incomplete to Malik BensonSimilar
Q2 12:28
4TH & 15
OWN 16
0
98.2%
James Burnip punt for 53 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MTSU 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 8MISSED FG
11 plays · 55 yds · 3:312% → 2%
Q2 12:19
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+9
98.1%
Frank Peasant run for 9 yds to the MTSU 40Similar
Q2 11:42
2ND & 1
OWN 40
0
98.0%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incomplete to Braxton CrouseSimilar
Q2 11:33
3RD & 1
OWN 40
+30
98.0%
Nicholas Vattiato run for 30 yds to the ALA 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:59
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+4
97.8%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Javonte Sherman for 4 yds to the ALA 26Similar
Q2 10:27
2ND & 6
OPP 26
+4
97.7%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Jeremy Tate Jr. for 4 yds to the ALA 22Similar
Q2 9:55
3RD & 2
OPP 22
+4
97.8%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to DJ England-Chisolm for 4 yds to the ALA 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:38
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+9
97.7%
(09:43) No Huddle-Shotgun Vattiato,Nicholas pass incomplete short right to England-Chisolm,DJ PENALTY ALA Roughing The Passer (Oatis,Jaheim) 9 yards from ALA18 to ALA09, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
97.7%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incomplete to Jeremy Tate Jr.Similar
Q2 9:08
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
-5
97.6%
Nicholas Vattiato sacked by Chris Braswell for a loss of 5 yards to the ALA 14 Nicholas Vattiato fumbled, recovered by MTSU Devin Hayes , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q2 8:52
3RD & GOAL
OPP 14
0
97.8%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incomplete to Kalani NorrisSimilar
Q2 8:48
4TH & GOAL
OPP 14
+32
97.9%
Zeke Rankin 32 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 9PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 2:5198% → 98%
Q2 8:39
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
98.0%
Roydell Williams run for no gain to the ALA 20Similar
Q2 8:04
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+9
97.9%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Kobe Prentice for 9 yds to the ALA 29Similar
Q2 7:48
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+8
97.8%
Roydell Williams run for 8 yds to the ALA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:11
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
97.9%
Jalen Milroe pass incomplete to Kobe PrenticeSimilar
Q2 6:52
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+4
97.8%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Kobe Prentice for 4 yds to the ALA 41Similar
Q2 6:28
3RD & 6
OWN 41
-6
97.8%
Jalen Milroe sacked by Parker Hughes for a loss of 6 yards to the ALA 35Similar
Q2 5:48
4TH & 12
OWN 35
0
97.6%
James Burnip punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Kellen Stewart at the MTSU 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 10INT
6 plays · 23 yds · 1:582% → 3%
Q2 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+5
97.6%
Jaiden Credle run for 5 yds to the MTSU 22Similar
Q2 5:03
2ND & 5
OWN 22
+6
97.5%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Jaiden Credle for 6 yds to the MTSU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:42
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+1
97.3%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Jaiden Credle for 1 yd to the MTSU 29Similar
Q2 3:42
2ND & 9
OWN 29
+8
97.4%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to DJ England-Chisolm for 8 yds to the MTSU 37Similar
Q2 3:42
3RD & 1
OWN 37
+3
97.3%
Jekail Middlebrook run for 3 yds to the MTSU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:42
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
97.3%
Nicholas Vattiato pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 11TD
4 plays · 42 yds · 0:2998% → 99%
Q2 3:36
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+15
97.7%
(03:36) No Huddle-Shotgun Milroe,Jalen pass incomplete deep left to Bond,Isaiah PENALTY MT Pass Interference (Fluellen,Tra) 15 yards from MT 42 to MT 27, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:31
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
97.7%
Jalen Milroe pass incomplete to Isaiah BondSimilar
Q2 3:24
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+14
97.7%
(03:31) No Huddle-Shotgun Milroe,Jalen rush right for 1 yard loss to the MT 28 (Kinley,Richard) PENALTY MT Horse Collar Tackle (Kinley,Richard) 14 yards from MT 27 to MT 13, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:07
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
99.0%
Jalen Milroe run for 13 yds for a TD (Will Reichard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · -12 yds · 0:581% → 1%
Q2 3:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
98.8%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incomplete to Braxton CrouseSimilar
Q2 2:57
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-12
98.8%
Nicholas Vattiato sacked by Deontae Lawson for a loss of 12 yards to the MTSU 13Similar
Q2 2:12
3RD & 22
OWN 13
0
98.9%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incomplete to Frank PeasantSimilar
Q2 2:05
4TH & 22
OWN 13
+6
98.9%
Trey Turk punt for 40 yds , Kool-Aid McKinstry returns for 6 yds to the MTSU 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 13TD
1 play · 47 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q2 1:58
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+47
99.6%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Isaiah Bond for 47 yds for a TD (Will Reichard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 14PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 0:560% → 0%
Q2 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
99.6%
Jekail Middlebrook run for 11 yds to the MTSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:36
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
99.6%
Jekail Middlebrook run for 2 yds to the MTSU 38Similar
Q2 1:04
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+2
99.6%
Jekail Middlebrook run for 2 yds to the MTSU 40Similar
Q2 1:00
3RD & 6
OWN 40
0
99.7%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incomplete to Jeremy Tate Jr.Similar
Q2 0:53
4TH & 6
OWN 40
0
99.7%
Miles Tillman punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Kool-Aid McKinstry at the ALA 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 15END OF HALF
4 plays · 19 yds · 0:44100% → 100%
Q2 0:44
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+5
99.7%
Roydell Williams run for 5 yds to the ALA 17Similar
Q2 0:11
2ND & 5
OWN 17
+11
99.7%
Roydell Williams run for 11 yds to the ALA 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
99.7%
Jalen Milroe run for 3 yds to the ALA 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 16TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 1:59100% → 100%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.7%
Jase McClellan run for no gain to the ALA 25Similar
Q3 14:21
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
99.7%
Jalen Milroe pass incomplete to Ja'Corey BrooksSimilar
Q3 14:06
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+25
99.7%
Jalen Milroe run for 25 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:41
1ST & 10
50
0
99.7%
Jalen Milroe pass incomplete to Ja'Corey BrooksSimilar
Q3 13:32
2ND & 10
50
+2
99.7%
Jam Miller run for 2 yds to the MTSU 48Similar
Q3 12:54
3RD & 8
OPP 48
+48
99.8%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Jermaine Burton for 48 yds for a TD (Will Reichard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 1:330% → 0%
Q3 12:39
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+2
99.8%
Frank Peasant run for 2 yds to the MTSU 6Similar
Q3 12:14
2ND & 12
OWN 6
0
99.8%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incomplete to Frank PeasantSimilar
Q3 12:05
3RD & 12
OWN 6
+3
99.8%
Frank Peasant run for 3 yds to the MTSU 9Similar
Q3 11:06
4TH & 9
OWN 9
+33
99.8%
Miles Tillman punt for 58 yds , Kool-Aid McKinstry returns for 33 yds to the MTSU 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 18TD
2 plays · 34 yds · 0:24100% → 100%
Q3 10:49
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+5
99.8%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Isaiah Bond for 5 yds to the MTSU 29Similar
Q3 10:25
2ND & 5
OPP 29
+29
99.9%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Amari Niblack for 29 yds for a TD (Will Reichard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:480% → 0%
Q3 10:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
99.9%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Elijah Metcalf for 3 yds to the MTSU 28Similar
Q3 9:27
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+2
99.9%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Kalani Norris for 2 yds to the MTSU 26Similar
Q3 8:56
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+3
99.9%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Holden Willis for 3 yds to the MTSU 29Similar
Q3 8:15
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+5
99.9%
Trey Turk punt for 51 yds , returns for 5 yds to the ALA 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:22100% → 100%
Q3 6:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
99.9%
Justice Haynes run for 3 yds to the ALA 28Similar
Q3 6:52
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+2
99.9%
Justice Haynes run for 2 yds to the ALA 30Similar
Q3 6:39
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
99.9%
Tyler Buchner pass incomplete to Jalen HaleSimilar
Q3 6:39
4TH & 5
OWN 30
-55
99.9%
(06:39) Burnip,James punt 55 yards to the MT 15 PENALTY MT Illegal Block in Back offsetting ALA Kick Catch Interference offsetting. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:30
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
99.9%
James Burnip punt for 38 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 21TD
12 plays · 77 yds · 4:22100% → 100%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
99.9%
Jam Miller run for 2 yds to the ALA 25Similar
Q4 10:38
2ND & 8
OWN 25
+20
99.9%
Tyler Buchner pass complete to Amari Niblack for 20 yds to the ALA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:38
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
99.9%
Tyler Buchner pass complete to Isaiah Bond for 2 yds to the ALA 47Similar
Q4 10:38
2ND & 8
OWN 47
+4
99.9%
Jam Miller run for 4 yds to the MTSU 49Similar
Q4 10:38
3RD & 4
OPP 49
+5
99.9%
Tyler Buchner pass complete to Jermaine Burton for 5 yds to the MTSU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:38
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+6
99.9%
Jam Miller run for 6 yds to the MTSU 38Similar
Q4 10:38
2ND & 4
OPP 38
0
99.9%
Tyler Buchner pass incomplete to Jalen HaleSimilar
Q4 10:38
3RD & 4
OPP 38
+5
99.9%
(10:38) PENALTY MT Offside (Smith,Damonte) 5 yards from MT 38 to MT 33, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:38
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+16
99.9%
Justice Haynes run for 16 yds to the MTSU 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:38
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+8
99.9%
Justice Haynes run for 8 yds to the MTSU 9Similar
Q4 10:38
2ND & 2
OPP 9
+9
99.9%
Tyler Buchner run for 9 yds for a TD (Will Reichard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 22FUMBLE
4 plays · 10 yds · 1:120% → 0%
Q4 10:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
100.0%
DJ Riles run for 3 yds to the MTSU 28Similar
Q4 9:51
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+4
100.0%
DJ Riles pass complete to Jaiden Credle for 4 yds to the MTSU 32Similar
Q4 9:15
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+3
100.0%
DJ Riles pass complete to Jacob Coleman for 3 yds Jacob Coleman fumbled, recovered by ALA Kendrick BlackshireSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 23TD
6 plays · 33 yds · 3:00100% → 100%
Q4 8:58
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+11
100.0%
Richard Young run for 11 yds to the MTSU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:25
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+2
100.0%
Richard Young run for 2 yds to the MTSU 20Similar
Q4 7:48
2ND & 8
OPP 20
+3
100.0%
Richard Young run for 3 yds to the MTSU 17Similar
Q4 7:00
3RD & 5
OPP 17
+11
100.0%
Ty Simpson run for 11 yds to the MTSU 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
100.0%
Ty Simpson pass complete to Jalen Hale for 5 yds to the MTSU 1Similar
Q4 5:58
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
100.0%
Ty Simpson run for 1 yd for a TD (Conor Talty KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 24PUNT
9 plays · 11 yds · 4:470% → 0%
Q4 5:36
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+2
100.0%
Kyle Lowe run for 2 yds to the MTSU 20Similar
Q4 5:03
2ND & 8
OWN 20
+6
100.0%
Jekail Middlebrook run for 6 yds to the MTSU 26Similar
Q4 4:18
3RD & 2
OWN 26
+3
100.0%
Jekail Middlebrook run for 3 yds to the MTSU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:31
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+1
100.0%
Kyle Lowe pass complete to AJ Toney for 1 yd to the MTSU 28Similar
Q4 2:42
2ND & 11
OWN 28
+2
100.0%
Raymond Banner run for 2 yds to the MTSU 30Similar
Q4 2:15
3RD & 9
OWN 30
-5
100.0%
PENALTY MT False Start (Wilson,Simon) 5 yards from MT 30 to MT 25. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:48
3RD & 14
OWN 25
+4
100.0%
Raymond Banner run for 4 yds to the MTSU 29Similar
Q4 0:49
4TH & 10
OWN 29
+1
100.0%
Miles Tillman punt for 51 yds , Isaiah Bond returns for 1 yd to the ALA 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 25END OF GAME
2 plays · 2 yds · 0:40100% → 100%
Q4 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+3
100.0%
Richard Young run for 3 yds to the ALA 14Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 7
OWN 14
+1
100.0%
Richard Young run for 1 yd to the ALA 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 3:07
Jalen Milroe run for 13 yds for a TD (Will Reichard KICK)
+1.4
TD · Q2 1:58
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Isaiah Bond for 47 yds for a TD (Will Reichard KICK)
+0.8
TD · Q3 0:32
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Bryce Bailey for 7 yds for a TD (Zeke Rankin KICK)
+0.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com