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VAL

Valparaiso 3 at New Mexico State 65

NMSU
2022 · Week 14 · Dec 3, 2022 · Aggie Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · NMSU
modelNMSU aheadVAL aheadconfidence bandkey playNMSU scoreVAL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 0:43 · Evan Matthes punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Lawrence Dixon at the NMxSt 26
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factor
+47.0+23.50−23.5−47.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 82Pregame prior+32.2Home team on offense+27.5Score differential+22.3Blowout margin+10.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+4.7Garbage-time factor+6.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 4:33: Diego Pavia pass complete to Justice Powers for 69 yds for a TD (Ethan Albertson KICK) — NMSU win probability +0.6 pts (now 96%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 2:44: Diego Pavia pass complete to Kordell David for 70 yds for a TD (Ethan Albertson KICK) — NMSU win probability +0.8 pts (now 97%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
  3. FG · Q2 13:59: Brian Bartholomew 49 yd FG GOOD — VAL win probability +0.8 pts (now 4%) (top driver: VAL has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 13:02: Diego Pavia pass complete to Bryce Childress for 72 yds for a TD (Ethan Albertson KICK) — VAL win probability +0.2 pts (now 4%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q2 6:23: Diego Pavia run for 13 yds for a TD (Ethan Albertson KICK) — NMSU win probability +2.8 pts (now 99%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NMSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4VAL made the numbers' call on 12 of 15
  1. Q1 10:47VAL 4th & 12 at VAL 44, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.7%−0.1
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:18VAL 4th & 10 at VAL 47, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.1%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.2%
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:55VAL 4th & 5 at VAL 27, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.9%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.0%
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:59VAL 4th & 15 at NMSU 32, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 2.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.5%−0.2
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    2.7%
    51% to make
    Punt
    2.5%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:34VAL 4th & 11 at VAL 42, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.5%−0.2
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.7%
    average punt
  6. Q2 5:20VAL 4th & 10 at VAL 25, down 32
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.9%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.0%
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:23NMSU 4th & 13 at NMSU 22, up 32
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.8%−0.2
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.9%
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:59VAL 4th & 14 at VAL 24, down 32
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.6%−0.1
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.8%
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:58NMSU 4th & 20 at NMSU 25, up 32
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.0%−0.2
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.2%
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:43VAL 4th & 11 at VAL 39, down 32
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.5%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.6%
    average punt
  11. Q3 13:02NMSU 4th & 4 at NMSU 34, up 32
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.5%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.5%
    average punt
  12. Q3 10:55VAL 4th & 17 at VAL 15, down 32
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.3%−0.2
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.5%
    average punt
  13. Q3 9:25VAL 4th & 9 at VAL 26, down 39
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
  14. Q3 5:03NMSU 4th & 3 at VAL 25, up 46
    Close callKicked a field goal · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.8%−0.1
    66% to make
    Punt
    99.4%−0.4
    average punt
  15. Q3 3:35VAL 4th & 8 at VAL 18, down 49
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.1%
    average punt
  16. Q4 14:45VAL 4th & 9 at VAL 30, down 49
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  17. Q4 12:16VAL 4th & 16 at VAL 29, down 56
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    -0.0%−0.1
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  18. Q4 3:35VAL 4th & 7 at NMSU 9, down 62
    Close callWent for it · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.0%−<0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    0.0%
    89% to make
    Punt
    -0.1%−0.1
    average punt
  19. Q4 0:56VAL 4th & 16 at NMSU 16, down 62
    Close callWent for it · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.0%−<0.1
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    0.0%
    81% to make
    Punt
    0.0%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NMSU made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
  1. Q1 9:25NMSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 4:33NMSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 2:44NMSU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 13:02NMSU Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 6:23NMSU Touchdown, up 31 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 10:52NMSU Touchdown, up 38 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 6:39NMSU Touchdown, up 45 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 14:33NMSU Touchdown, up 55 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 10:18NMSU Touchdown, up 62 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
VALDrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 4:133% → 4%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
96.9%
Aaron Dawson run for 2 yds to the Valpo 27Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+5
96.9%
Michael Appel Jr. pass complete to Aaron Dawson for 5 yds to the Valpo 32Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+14
96.9%
Michael Appel Jr. pass complete to Jake Vickers for 14 yds to the Valpo 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
96.9%
Aaron Dawson run for no gain to the Valpo 46Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+4
96.9%
Michael Appel Jr. pass complete to Braden Contreras for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
50
-6
96.9%
Michael Appel Jr. sacked by Izaiah Reed for a loss of 6 yards to the Valpo 44Similar
Q1 10:47
4TH & 12
OWN 44
+1
96.2%
Evan Matthes punt for 41 yds , Lawrence Dixon returns for 1 yd to the NMxSt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 2TD
3 plays · 84 yds · 1:2296% → 96%
Q1 10:47
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+20
96.1%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Kordell David for 20 yds to the NMxSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:47
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+14
96.2%
Star Thomas run for 14 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:25
1ST & 10
50
+50
96.3%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Jonathan Brady for 50 yds for a TD (Ethan Albertson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VALDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 22 yds · 3:074% → 4%
Q1 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
96.2%
Michael Appel Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:25
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+9
96.2%
Michael Appel Jr. pass complete to Matt Ross for 9 yds to the Valpo 34Similar
Q1 9:25
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+13
96.2%
Michael Appel Jr. pass complete to Aaron Dawson for 13 yds to the Valpo 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+1
96.1%
run for 1 yd to the Valpo 48Similar
Q1 9:25
2ND & 9
OWN 48
-1
96.1%
Aaron Dawson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Valpo 47Similar
Q1 9:25
3RD & 10
OWN 47
0
96.2%
Michael Appel Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:18
4TH & 10
OWN 47
+9
95.8%
Evan Matthes punt for 43 yds , Lawrence Dixon returns for 9 yds to the NMxSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 4TD
4 plays · 81 yds · 1:4596% → 96%
Q1 6:18
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+2
95.8%
Jamoni Jones run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 21Similar
Q1 6:18
2ND & 8
OWN 21
+5
95.8%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Chris Bellamy for 5 yds to the NMxSt 26Similar
Q1 6:18
3RD & 3
OWN 26
+5
95.8%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Chris Bellamy for 5 yds to the NMxSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:33
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+69
96.4%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Justice Powers for 69 yds for a TD (Ethan Albertson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VALDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:324% → 4%
Q1 4:27
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+2
96.1%
Michael Appel Jr. pass complete to Aaron Dawson for 2 yds to the Valpo 24Similar
Q1 4:27
2ND & 8
OWN 24
+3
96.1%
Aaron Dawson run for 3 yds to the Valpo 27Similar
Q1 4:27
3RD & 5
OWN 27
0
96.1%
Michael Appel Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:55
4TH & 5
OWN 27
0
96.1%
Evan Matthes punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Lawrence Dixon at the NMxSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 6TD
1 play · 70 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q1 2:44
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+70
96.9%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Kordell David for 70 yds for a TD (Ethan Albertson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VALDrive 7FG
14 plays · 53 yds · 3:403% → 4%
Q1 2:39
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+9
97.2%
Michael Appel Jr. pass complete to Jordan Bingham for 9 yds to the Valpo 24Similar
Q1 2:39
2ND & 1
OWN 24
-2
97.1%
Michael Appel Jr. sacked by Lazarus Williams for a loss of 2 yards to the Valpo 22Similar
Q1 2:39
3RD & 3
OWN 22
+15
97.2%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Lazarus Williams) to the Valpo 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:39
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
97.1%
Michael Appel Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:39
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+17
97.1%
Michael Appel Jr. pass complete to Solomon Davis for 17 yds to the NMxSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
97.1%
run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 42Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 42
0
97.1%
Michael Appel Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:49
3RD & 6
OPP 42
+15
97.0%
APPEL, Mikey pass up the middle incomplete intended for DAWSON, Aaron thrown to the NMS40; QB hurried by WEBB, Sterling. PENALTY NMS Roughing the Passer on REED, Izaiah enforced 15 yards from the NMS42 to the NMS27 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 14:49
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
96.9%
Michael Appel Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:49
2ND & 10
OPP 27
0
96.9%
Michael Appel Jr. run for no gain to the NMxSt 27Similar
Q2 14:49
3RD & 10
OPP 27
-5
97.0%
VALPARAISO Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NMxSt 32Similar
Q2 14:49
3RD & 15
OPP 32
0
97.2%
Jeffrey Jackson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:59
4TH & 15
OPP 32
+49
96.4%
Brian Bartholomew 49 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 8TD
2 plays · 74 yds · 0:5096% → 96%
Q2 13:52
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
96.4%
Jamoni Jones run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 28Similar
Q2 13:02
2ND & 8
OWN 28
+72
96.2%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Bryce Childress for 72 yds for a TD (Ethan Albertson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VALDrive 9PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 3:283% → 4%
Q2 13:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
97.0%
Jeffrey Jackson pass complete to Solomon Davis for 8 yds to the Valpo 33Similar
Q2 13:02
2ND & 2
OWN 33
-5
96.7%
VALPARAISO Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Valpo 28Similar
Q2 13:02
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+15
96.8%
Michael Appel Jr. pass complete to Braden Contreras for 15 yds to the Valpo 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:02
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+8
96.8%
run for 8 yds to the NMxSt 49Similar
Q2 13:02
2ND & 2
OPP 49
-2
96.8%
Aaron Dawson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Valpo 49Similar
Q2 13:02
3RD & 4
OWN 49
-7
96.9%
Michael Appel Jr. sacked by Tyriece Thomas for a loss of 7 yards to the Valpo 42Similar
Q2 9:34
4TH & 11
OWN 42
+2
96.0%
Evan Matthes punt for 35 yds , Lawrence Dixon returns for 2 yds to the NMxSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 10TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:1196% → 99%
Q2 9:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
95.8%
Star Thomas run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMxSt 24Similar
Q2 9:34
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+19
96.0%
Diego Pavia run for 19 yds to the NMxSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:34
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+17
96.5%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Jonathan Brady for 17 yds to the Valpo 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:34
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+9
96.5%
PAVIA, Diego pass to the left incomplete intended for DAVID, Kordell thrown to the VAL30. PENALTY VAL Pass Interference on HORTON, Jadarius enforced at the spot of the foul for 9 yards to the VAL31 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 9:34
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+15
96.5%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Jonathan Brady for 15 yds to the Valpo 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:34
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
96.5%
Diego Pavia pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:34
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+8
96.5%
Star Thomas run for 8 yds to the Valpo 8Similar
Q2 9:34
3RD & 2
OPP 8
-5
95.7%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Valpo 13Similar
Q2 6:23
3RD & 7
OPP 13
+13
98.5%
Diego Pavia run for 13 yds for a TD (Ethan Albertson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VALDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:031% → 1%
Q2 6:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
98.9%
Michael Appel Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:23
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
98.9%
Aaron Dawson run for no gain to the Valpo 25Similar
Q2 6:23
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
98.9%
Michael Appel Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:20
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
99.0%
Evan Matthes punt for 50 yds, downed at the NMxSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 0:5799% → 99%
Q2 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
98.9%
Diego Pavia sacked by Kevin Spelman for a loss of 3 yards to the NMxSt 22Similar
Q2 5:20
2ND & 13
OWN 22
0
98.9%
Diego Pavia pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:20
3RD & 13
OWN 22
0
98.9%
Diego Pavia pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:23
4TH & 13
OWN 22
+2
98.9%
Josh Carlson punt for 52 yds , Matt Martin returns for 2 yds to the Valpo 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VALDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 1:241% → 1%
Q2 4:23
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-9
99.0%
Michael Appel Jr. sacked by Gabe Peterson for a loss of 9 yards to the Valpo 19Similar
Q2 4:23
2ND & 19
OWN 19
0
99.1%
Michael Appel Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:23
3RD & 19
OWN 19
+5
99.1%
Michael Appel Jr. pass complete to Barret Labus for 5 yds to the Valpo 24Similar
Q2 2:59
4TH & 14
OWN 24
0
99.2%
Evan Matthes punt for 41 yds, downed at the NMxSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · -10 yds · 1:0199% → 99%
Q2 2:59
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
99.2%
Diego Pavia pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:59
2ND & 20
OWN 25
0
99.2%
Gavin Frakes pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:59
3RD & 20
OWN 25
0
99.2%
Gavin Frakes pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:58
4TH & 20
OWN 25
+1
99.2%
Josh Carlson punt for 47 yds , Matt Martin returns for 1 yd to the Valpo 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VALDrive 15PUNT
8 plays · 10 yds · 1:151% → 0%
Q2 1:58
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+9
99.3%
Aaron Dawson run for 9 yds to the Valpo 38 Aaron Dawson fumbled, recovered by Valpo Michael Appel Jr.Similar
Q2 1:58
2ND & 1
OWN 38
+2
99.1%
Michael Appel Jr. run for 2 yds to the Valpo 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:58
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
99.2%
Michael Appel Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:55
2ND & 10
OWN 40
-3
99.5%
Aaron Dawson run for a loss of 3 yards to the Valpo 37Similar
Q2 0:50
3RD & 13
OWN 37
+2
99.6%
Michael Appel Jr. pass complete to Barret Labus for 2 yds to the Valpo 39Similar
Q2 0:43
4TH & 11
OWN 39
0
99.6%
Evan Matthes punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Lawrence Dixon at the NMxSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 16END OF HALF
6 plays · 28 yds · 0:4199% → 100%
Q2 0:43
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
99.3%
Gavin Frakes pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:43
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+5
99.3%
Gavin Frakes pass complete to Kordell David for 5 yds to the NMxSt 31Similar
Q2 0:43
3RD & 5
OWN 31
+10
99.3%
Gavin Frakes pass complete to Chris Bellamy for 10 yds to the NMxSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:02
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+13
99.4%
Gavin Frakes pass complete to Thomaz Whitford for 13 yds to the Valpo 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:02
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
99.5%
Gavin Frakes pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:5199% → 100%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
99.4%
Star Thomas run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 31Similar
Q3 14:53
2ND & 7
OWN 31
-3
99.4%
Star Thomas run for a loss of 3 yards to the NMxSt 28Similar
Q3 14:53
3RD & 10
OWN 28
+6
99.4%
Gavin Frakes pass complete to Star Thomas for 6 yds to the NMxSt 34Similar
Q3 13:02
4TH & 4
OWN 34
0
99.5%
Josh Carlson punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Matt Martin at the Valpo 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VALDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · -7 yds · 2:071% → 1%
Q3 13:02
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
99.5%
Aaron Dawson run for 3 yds to the Valpo 25Similar
Q3 13:02
2ND & 7
OWN 25
-7
99.5%
run for a loss of 7 yards to the Valpo 18Similar
Q3 13:02
3RD & 14
OWN 18
-3
99.5%
Michael Appel Jr. pass complete to Aaron Dawson for a loss of 3 yards to the Valpo 15Similar
Q3 10:55
4TH & 17
OWN 15
0
99.5%
punt blocked by Josh Ferguson blocked by Josh FergusonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 19TD
1 play · 2 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 10:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
99.7%
Jamoni Jones run for 2 yds for a TD (Ethan Albertson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VALDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:270% → 0%
Q3 10:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
99.7%
Barret Labus run for 2 yds to the Valpo 27Similar
Q3 10:52
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
99.7%
Michael Appel Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:52
3RD & 8
OWN 27
-1
99.7%
Barret Labus run for a loss of 1 yard to the Valpo 26Similar
Q3 9:25
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
99.7%
Evan Matthes punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Jonathan Brady at the NMxSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 21TD
6 plays · 60 yds · 2:46100% → 100%
Q3 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+23
99.7%
Star Thomas run for 23 yds to the Valpo 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:25
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+2
99.7%
Star Thomas run for 2 yds to the Valpo 35Similar
Q3 9:25
2ND & 8
OPP 35
+5
99.7%
Star Thomas run for 5 yds to the Valpo 30Similar
Q3 9:25
3RD & 3
OPP 30
+4
99.7%
Star Thomas run for 4 yds to the Valpo 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:25
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
99.7%
Gavin Frakes pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.8%
Star Thomas run for 1 yd for a TD (Ethan Albertson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VALDrive 22PUNT
3 plays · 4 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 6:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.8%
Michael Appel Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:39
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
99.8%
Barret Labus run for 4 yds to the Valpo 29Similar
Q3 6:39
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
99.8%
Michael Appel Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 23FG
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:34100% → 100%
Q3 5:37
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+9
99.8%
Jamoni Jones run for 9 yds to the Valpo 23Similar
Q3 5:37
2ND & 1
OPP 23
-2
99.8%
Gavin Frakes run for a loss of 2 yards to the Valpo 25Similar
Q3 5:37
3RD & 3
OPP 25
0
99.8%
Jamoni Jones run for no gain to the Valpo 25Similar
Q3 5:03
4TH & 3
OPP 25
+42
99.8%
Ethan Albertson 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VALDrive 24PUNT
8 plays · 14 yds · 3:500% → 0%
Q3 3:35
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+2
99.9%
Barret Labus run for 2 yds to the Valpo 18Similar
Q3 3:35
2ND & 8
OWN 18
0
99.9%
Michael Appel Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:35
3RD & 8
OWN 18
0
99.9%
Michael Appel Jr. pass complete to Braden Contreras for no gain to the Valpo 18Similar
Q3 3:35
4TH & 8
OWN 18
+11
99.9%
Michael Appel Jr. pass complete to Solomon Davis for 11 yds to the Valpo 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:35
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+4
99.9%
Barret Labus run for 4 yds to the Valpo 33Similar
Q3 3:35
2ND & 6
OWN 33
-4
99.9%
Barret Labus run for a loss of 4 yards to the Valpo 29Similar
Q3 3:35
3RD & 10
OWN 29
+1
99.9%
Michael Appel Jr. pass complete to Solomon Davis for 1 yd to the Valpo 30Similar
Q4 14:45
4TH & 9
OWN 30
+2
99.9%
Evan Matthes punt for 50 yds , Lawrence Dixon returns for 2 yds to the NMxSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 25TD
1 play · 78 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 14:33
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+78
99.9%
Ahmonte Watkins run for 78 yds for a TD (Ethan Albertson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VALDrive 26PUNT
7 plays · -6 yds · 2:170% → 0%
Q4 14:33
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-5
99.9%
VALPARAISO Penalty, Delay Of Game (Michael Appel Jr.) to the Valpo 30Similar
Q4 14:33
1ST & 15
OWN 30
+2
99.9%
Michael Appel Jr. pass complete to Ryan Mann for 2 yds to the Valpo 32Similar
Q4 13:01
2ND & 13
OWN 32
+7
100.0%
Ryan Mann run for 7 yds to the Valpo 39Similar
Q4 13:01
3RD & 6
OWN 39
-10
99.9%
VALPARAISO Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Valpo 29Similar
Q4 13:01
3RD & 16
OWN 29
0
100.0%
Michael Appel Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:16
4TH & 16
OWN 29
+24
100.0%
Evan Matthes punt for 39 yds , Lawrence Dixon returns for 24 yds to the Valpo 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 27TD
4 plays · 44 yds · 1:58100% → 100%
Q4 12:16
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+36
99.9%
O'Maury Samuels run for 36 yds to the Valpo 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
99.9%
O'Maury Samuels run for no gain to the Valpo 8Similar
Q4 12:16
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
99.9%
O'Maury Samuels run for no gain to the Valpo 8Similar
Q4 10:18
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
99.9%
Weston Eget pass complete to Jonathan Brady for 8 yds for a TD (J. Carlson Run For Two-point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VALDrive 28DOWNS
13 plays · 73 yds · 6:330% → 0%
Q4 10:08
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+2
100.0%
Barret Labus run for 2 yds to the Valpo 20Similar
Q4 10:08
2ND & 8
OWN 20
+5
100.0%
Jeffrey Jackson pass complete to Jake Vickers for 5 yds to the Valpo 25Similar
Q4 10:08
3RD & 3
OWN 25
+9
100.0%
Jeffrey Jackson pass complete to Barret Labus for 9 yds to the Valpo 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:08
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+10
100.0%
Jeffrey Jackson run for 10 yds to the Valpo 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:08
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+4
100.0%
Jeffery Vercher run for 4 yds to the Valpo 48Similar
Q4 10:08
2ND & 6
OWN 48
+21
100.0%
Jeffrey Jackson pass complete to Braden Contreras for 21 yds to the NMxSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:08
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
100.0%
Jeffery Vercher run for no gain to the NMxSt 31Similar
Q4 10:08
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+7
100.0%
Ryan Mann run for 7 yds to the NMxSt 24 for a 1ST down NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Torren Union) to the NMxSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:08
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
100.0%
Jeffrey Jackson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:08
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+8
100.0%
Jeffrey Jackson run for 8 yds to the NMxSt 4Similar
Q4 10:08
3RD & 2
OPP 4
-5
100.0%
VALPARAISO Penalty, False Start (Jeffrey Jackson) to the NMxSt 9Similar
Q4 10:08
3RD & 7
OPP 9
0
100.0%
Jeffrey Jackson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:35
4TH & 7
OPP 9
0
100.0%
Jeffrey Jackson pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 29FUMBLE
3 plays · 13 yds · 1:17100% → 100%
Q4 3:35
1ST & 10
OWN 9
-1
100.0%
Braylon Stewart run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMxSt 8Similar
Q4 3:35
2ND & 11
OWN 8
+5
100.0%
Braylon Stewart run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 13Similar
Q4 2:18
3RD & 6
OWN 13
+9
100.0%
Weston Eget run for 9 yds to the NMxSt 22 Weston Eget fumbled, recovered by Valpo Hunter NabersSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VALDrive 30DOWNS
8 plays · 6 yds · 1:220% → 0%
Q4 2:18
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+11
100.0%
Jeffrey Jackson pass complete to Matt Ross for 11 yds to the NMxSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:18
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-2
100.0%
Jeffrey Jackson sacked by Devlin Kirklin for a loss of 2 yards to the NMxSt 13Similar
Q4 1:34
2ND & 12
OPP 13
0
100.0%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, Defensive Holding (BJ Sculark) to the NMxSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-2
100.0%
Barret Labus run for a loss of 2 yards to the NMxSt 8Similar
Q4 1:34
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
100.0%
Jeffrey Jackson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:34
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
-8
100.0%
Jeffrey Jackson run for a loss of 8 yards to the NMxSt 16Similar
Q4 0:56
4TH & GOAL
OPP 16
0
100.0%
Jeffrey Jackson pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 31END OF 4TH QUARTER
2 plays · 7 yds · 0:56100% → 100%
Q4 0:56
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+8
100.0%
O'Maury Samuels run for 8 yds to the NMxSt 24Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 2
OWN 24
0
100.0%
[NH] Kneel down by EGET, Weston at NMS23 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 6:23
Diego Pavia run for 13 yds for a TD (Ethan Albertson KICK)
+2.8
TD · Q1 2:44
Diego Pavia pass complete to Kordell David for 70 yds for a TD (Ethan Albertson KICK)
+0.8
FG · Q2 13:59
Brian Bartholomew 49 yd FG GOOD
-0.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com