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PITT

Pittsburgh 37 at UCLA 35

UCLA
2022 · Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl · Dec 30, 2022 · Sun Bowl
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Win probability · UCLA
modelUCLA aheadPITT aheadconfidence bandkey playUCLA scorePITT score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDFGFGTDFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 14:49 · Sam Vander Haar punt for 25 yds, downed at the UCLA 27
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+35.5+17.80−17.8−35.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 129Pregame prior+6.5Home team on offense+8.5Garbage-time factor+0.6Score differential+2.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 3:49: Nick Patti pass complete to Bub Means for 15 yds for a TD Timeout PITTSBURGH, clock 03:49 (Nick Patti pass to Konata Mumpfield for Two-Point Conversion) — PITT win probability +12.4 pts (now 37%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 3:04: Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD (Ben Sauls KICK) — PITT win probability +14.2 pts (now 27%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 12:44: Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 7 yds for a TD (Ben Sauls KICK) — PITT win probability +25.9 pts (now 49%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 0:34: TJ Harden run for 8 yds for a TD (Nicholas Barr-Mira KICK) — UCLA win probability +65.8 pts (now 84%) (top driver: UCLA has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 0:04: Ben Sauls 47 yd FG GOOD — PITT win probability +54.4 pts (now 95%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UCLA made the numbers' call on 3 of 4PITT made the numbers' call on 9 of 12
  1. Q1 8:05PITT 4th & 4 at UCLA 4, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 29.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.1%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    29.0%−0.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    28.0%−1.0
    average punt
  2. Q1 2:56PITT 4th & 1 at PITT 31, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 28.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    28.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    28.0%−0.4
    average punt
  3. Q1 0:01PITT 4th & 5 at UCLA 31, down 4
    Close callKicked a field goal · 29.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.3%
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    29.2%−0.1
    54% to make
    Punt
    28.7%−0.5
    average punt
  4. Q2 10:33PITT 4th & 4 at PITT 31, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.6%−0.3
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.9%
    average punt
  5. Q2 0:00PITT 4th & 22 at PITT 40, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.5%−2.7
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.2%
    average punt
  6. Q3 10:49PITT 4th & 8 at PITT 15, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.1%−1.4
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.5%
    average punt
  7. Q3 9:40UCLA 4th & 3 at UCLA 27, up 7
    Close callPunted · 77.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.8%−0.3
    average punt
  8. Q3 6:39PITT 4th & 1 at PITT 34, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 12.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    13.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    12.7%−1.0
    average punt
  9. Q3 1:15UCLA 4th & 3 at UCLA 32, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.1%−0.4
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.5%
    average punt
  10. Q4 14:49PITT 4th & 6 at PITT 48, down 7
    Close callPunted · 20.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.6%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.6%−<0.1
    average punt
  11. Q4 10:38PITT 4th & 12 at UCLA 12, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 44.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.9%−4.8
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    42.7%
    86% to make
    Punt
    21.5%−21.2
    average punt
  12. Q4 8:48UCLA 4th & 9 at UCLA 6, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.1%−2.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.3%
    average punt
  13. Q4 5:50PITT 4th & 6 at UCLA 35, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 69.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    69.9%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    68.2%−1.7
    45% to make
    Punt
    65.6%−4.3
    average punt
  14. Q4 4:24PITT 4th & 9 at UCLA 9, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 70.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.1%−3.2
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    68.3%
    89% to make
    Punt
    46.3%−22.0
    average punt
  15. Q4 2:21UCLA 4th & 9 at UCLA 37, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 24.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    17.3%
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    13.2%−4.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 2:01PITT 4th & 1 at UCLA 28, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 88.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    88.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    86.0%−2.6
    60% to make
    Punt
    80.0%−8.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UCLA made the numbers' call on 5 of 5PITT made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 5:15UCLA Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 11:57UCLA Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 3:49PITT Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    31.5%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    31.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:57UCLA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 8:45UCLA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 3:04PITT Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    17.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    16.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 12:44PITT Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 0:34UCLA Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.7%−6.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
PITTDrive 1FG
15 plays · 71 yds · 6:5525% → 27%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
75.5%
PITTSBURGH Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Pitt 20Similar
Q1 14:54
1ST & 15
OWN 20
-1
75.5%
Nick Patti pass complete to Gavin Bartholomew for a loss of 1 yard to the Pitt 19Similar
Q1 14:18
2ND & 16
OWN 19
+41
75.4%
Nick Patti run for 41 yds to the UCLA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:47
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
75.1%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 5 yds to the UCLA 35Similar
Q1 13:09
2ND & 5
OPP 35
+7
74.9%
Nick Patti pass complete to Bub Means for 7 yds to the UCLA 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:38
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-1
74.7%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCLA 29Similar
Q1 11:53
2ND & 11
OPP 29
+4
74.5%
Nick Patti pass complete to Konata Mumpfield for 4 yds to the UCLA 25Similar
Q1 11:10
3RD & 7
OPP 25
+7
74.3%
Nick Patti pass complete to Karter Johnson for 7 yds to the UCLA 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:42
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+4
74.0%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 4 yds to the UCLA 14Similar
Q1 10:04
2ND & 6
OPP 14
+8
73.8%
Nick Patti pass complete to Rodney Hammond Jr. for 8 yds to the UCLA 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
73.7%
Nick Patti pass incomplete to Jared WayneSimilar
Q1 9:26
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
-1
73.6%
Nick Patti run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCLA 7Similar
Q1 8:45
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
73.4%
Nick Patti run for 3 yds to the UCLA 4Similar
Q1 8:05
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+22
73.3%
Ben Sauls 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 2TD
8 plays · 74 yds · 2:3473% → 75%
Q1 7:49
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-1
73.3%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Keegan Jones for 9 yds to the UCLA 35 UCLA Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the UCLA 25Similar
Q1 7:24
1ST & 11
OWN 25
+3
73.0%
Keegan Jones run for 3 yds to the UCLA 28Similar
Q1 6:59
2ND & 8
OWN 28
0
73.0%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass incomplete to Logan LoyaSimilar
Q1 6:50
3RD & 8
OWN 28
+8
72.6%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson run for 8 yds to the UCLA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:23
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
72.9%
TJ Harden run for 2 yds to the UCLA 38Similar
Q1 5:40
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+51
72.6%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Kam Brown for 51 yds to the Pitt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:15
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
75.3%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Logan Loya for 11 yds for a TD (Nicholas Barr-Mira KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 3FG
12 plays · 47 yds · 4:5826% → 28%
Q1 4:59
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
74.4%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 4 yds to the Pitt 26Similar
Q1 4:14
2ND & 6
OWN 26
+3
74.2%
Nick Patti pass complete to Konata Mumpfield for 3 yds to the Pitt 29Similar
Q1 3:33
3RD & 3
OWN 29
+2
74.3%
Daniel Carter run for 2 yds to the Pitt 31Similar
Q1 2:56
4TH & 1
OWN 31
+2
74.4%
Nick Patti run for no gain to the Pitt 33 Nick Patti fumbled, recovered by Pitt Rodney Hammond Jr. for a 1ST down Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 2 yds to the Pitt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:26
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+6
73.5%
Nick Patti pass complete to Jared Wayne for 6 yds to the Pitt 39Similar
Q1 1:59
2ND & 4
OWN 39
+5
72.9%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 5 yds to the Pitt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:24
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+20
72.7%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 20 yds to the UCLA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:44
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+5
72.3%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 5 yds to the UCLA 31Similar
Q1 0:07
2ND & 5
OPP 31
0
71.6%
Nick Patti pass incomplete to Gavin BartholomewSimilar
Q1 0:03
3RD & 5
OPP 31
0
72.1%
Nick Patti pass incomplete to Bub MeansSimilar
Q1 0:01
4TH & 5
OPP 31
+49
72.4%
Ben Sauls 49 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 4TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 2:5373% → 78%
Q2 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
72.9%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Keegan Jones for 10 yds to the UCLA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:33
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
72.9%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Keegan Jones for 6 yds to the UCLA 41Similar
Q2 14:16
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+4
73.8%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Logan Loya for 4 yds to the UCLA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:36
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
73.7%
Keegan Jones run for 2 yds to the UCLA 47Similar
Q2 13:02
2ND & 8
OWN 47
0
73.6%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass incomplete to Jake BoboSimilar
Q2 12:55
3RD & 8
OWN 47
+49
72.6%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Titus Mokiao-Atimalala for 49 yds to the Pitt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
74.2%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson run for 3 yds to the Pitt 1Similar
Q2 12:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
74.2%
PITTSBURGH Penalty, Defensive Offside ( Yards) to the Pitt 1Similar
Q2 11:57
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
78.1%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson run for 1 yd for a TD (Nicholas Barr-Mira KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:1223% → 22%
Q2 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
77.5%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 3 yds to the Pitt 28Similar
Q2 11:15
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
77.4%
Nick Patti pass incomplete to Gavin BartholomewSimilar
Q2 11:11
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+3
78.0%
Nick Patti pass complete to Jared Wayne for 3 yds to the Pitt 31Similar
Q2 10:33
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
78.2%
Caleb Junko punt for 49 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UCLA 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 6INT
6 plays · 67 yds · 2:1377% → 79%
Q2 10:23
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+35
77.0%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Kam Brown for 35 yds to the Pitt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:11
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+16
78.3%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Kam Brown for 16 yds to the Pitt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:48
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+5
78.5%
Keegan Jones run for 5 yds to the Pitt 24Similar
Q2 9:13
2ND & 5
OPP 24
+3
78.6%
TJ Harden run for 3 yds to the Pitt 21Similar
Q2 8:37
3RD & 2
OPP 21
+8
78.1%
TJ Harden run for 8 yds to the Pitt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:10
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
79.3%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass intercepted Tylar Wiltz return for no gain to the Pitt 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 7TD
9 plays · 94 yds · 4:1721% → 37%
Q2 8:06
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+10
78.7%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 10 yds to the Pitt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:32
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
78.5%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for no gain to the Pitt 16Similar
Q2 6:50
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+45
78.9%
Nick Patti pass complete to Bub Means for 45 yds to the UCLA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:19
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+7
76.9%
Nick Patti pass complete to Jared Wayne for 7 yds to the UCLA 32Similar
Q2 5:32
2ND & 3
OPP 32
+1
75.8%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 1 yd to the UCLA 31Similar
Q2 5:01
3RD & 2
OPP 31
+4
76.8%
Daniel Carter run for 4 yds to the UCLA 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:25
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+12
75.8%
Nick Patti pass complete to Konata Mumpfield for 12 yds to the UCLA 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:55
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
75.8%
Nick Patti pass incomplete to Konata MumpfieldSimilar
Q2 3:49
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+15
63.4%
Nick Patti pass complete to Bub Means for 15 yds for a TD Timeout PITTSBURGH, clock 03:49 (Nick Patti pass to Konata Mumpfield for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 8TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 2:5270% → 80%
Q2 3:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
70.0%
PITTSBURGH Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the UCLA 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:42
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+7
70.3%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Jake Bobo for 7 yds to the UCLA 37Similar
Q2 3:23
2ND & 3
OWN 37
+4
71.5%
Keegan Jones run for 4 yds to the UCLA 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:57
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-6
71.3%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson sacked by David Green and Dayon Hayes for a loss of 6 yards to the UCLA 35Similar
Q2 2:19
2ND & 16
OWN 35
+19
69.2%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Keegan Jones for 19 yds to the Pitt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+13
71.9%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Kam Brown for 13 yds to the Pitt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:20
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+5
72.8%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Michael Ezeike for 5 yds to the Pitt 28Similar
Q2 1:03
2ND & 5
OPP 28
0
72.8%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass incomplete to Michael EzeikeSimilar
Q2 0:57
3RD & 5
OPP 28
+28
79.9%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Titus Mokiao-Atimalala for 28 yds for a TD (Nicholas Barr-Mira KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 9PUNT
11 plays · 15 yds · 0:5022% → 21%
Q2 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
77.9%
Nick Patti pass incomplete to Daniel CarterSimilar
Q2 0:45
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
78.1%
UCLA Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Pitt 30Similar
Q2 0:36
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+6
77.5%
Nick Patti run for 6 yds to the Pitt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+16
77.3%
Nate Yarnell pass complete to Jared Wayne for 16 yds to the UCLA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:18
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
75.2%
Nate Yarnell pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:14
2ND & 10
OPP 48
-7
75.9%
Nick Patti sacked by Laiatu Latu for a loss of 7 yards to the Pitt 45Similar
Q2 0:10
3RD & 17
OWN 45
0
77.7%
Nick Patti pass incomplete to Bub MeansSimilar
Q2 0:10
4TH & 17
OWN 45
-5
78.7%
PITTSBURGH Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Pitt 40Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 22
OWN 40
0
78.7%
Caleb Junko punt for 60 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 10INT
8 plays · 58 yds · 3:0778% → 80%
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
78.0%
Keegan Jones run for 1 yd to the UCLA 26Similar
Q3 14:22
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+13
77.9%
Keegan Jones run for 13 yds to the UCLA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:56
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
79.0%
TJ Harden run for 6 yds to the UCLA 45Similar
Q3 13:25
2ND & 4
OWN 45
+32
79.7%
TJ Harden run for 32 yds to the Pitt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:01
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-1
80.1%
Colson Yankoff run for a loss of 1 yard to the Pitt 24Similar
Q3 12:24
2ND & 11
OPP 24
+7
80.0%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Jake Bobo for 7 yds to the Pitt 17Similar
Q3 11:45
3RD & 4
OPP 17
-1
79.7%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass intercepted Javon McIntyre return for 1 yd to the Pitt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:4923% → 21%
Q3 11:38
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+2
77.4%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 2 yds to the Pitt 15Similar
Q3 11:05
2ND & 8
OWN 15
0
77.5%
Nick Patti pass incomplete to Gavin BartholomewSimilar
Q3 11:01
3RD & 8
OWN 15
0
78.6%
Nick Patti pass incomplete to Konata MumpfieldSimilar
Q3 10:49
4TH & 8
OWN 15
0
79.1%
Caleb Junko punt for 85 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:5878% → 78%
Q3 10:38
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-2
78.2%
Keegan Jones run for a loss of 2 yards to the UCLA 18Similar
Q3 10:15
2ND & 12
OWN 18
+9
77.9%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson run for 9 yds to the UCLA 27Similar
Q3 9:50
3RD & 3
OWN 27
0
79.1%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass incomplete to Michael EzeikeSimilar
Q3 9:40
4TH & 3
OWN 27
0
78.2%
Nicholas Barr-Mira punt for 24 yds, downed at the Pitt 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 13INT TD
2 plays · 6 yds · 0:4325% → 15%
Q3 9:28
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+6
75.0%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 6 yds to the UCLA 45Similar
Q3 8:45
2ND & 4
OPP 45
-52
85.4%
Nick Patti pass intercepted for a TD Jaylin Davies return for 52 yds for a TD (Nicholas Barr-Mira KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 14TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 5:3213% → 27%
Q3 8:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
87.5%
Nick Patti run for 6 yds to the Pitt 31Similar
Q3 8:03
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+3
86.8%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 3 yds to the Pitt 34Similar
Q3 7:24
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
87.0%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for no gain to the Pitt 34Similar
Q3 6:39
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+9
87.8%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 9 yds to the Pitt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:17
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
87.1%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 5 yds to the Pitt 48Similar
Q3 5:52
2ND & 5
OWN 48
-1
86.7%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the Pitt 47Similar
Q3 5:12
3RD & 6
OWN 47
+14
87.2%
Nick Patti pass complete to Konata Mumpfield for 14 yds to the UCLA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:36
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+14
87.3%
Vincent Davis run for 14 yds to the UCLA 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
87.0%
Nick Patti pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:54
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+15
87.5%
Patti, Nick pass incomplete to Wayne, Jared, PENALTY UCLA pass interference 15 yards to the UCLA10, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN PITTSBURGH.Similar
Q3 3:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+9
87.0%
Nick Patti pass complete to Konata Mumpfield for 9 yds to the UCLA 1Similar
Q3 3:04
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
72.9%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD (Ben Sauls KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:4481% → 83%
Q3 2:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
81.3%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass incomplete to Logan LoyaSimilar
Q3 2:59
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-5
81.1%
Keegan Jones run for a loss of 5 yards to the UCLA 20 Keegan Jones fumbled, recovered by UCLA Keegan JonesSimilar
Q3 2:02
3RD & 15
OWN 20
+12
81.2%
TJ Harden run for 12 yds to the UCLA 32Similar
Q3 1:15
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
82.9%
Nicholas Barr-Mira punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Pitt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 16PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 1:2021% → 20%
Q3 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
78.8%
Nick Patti pass incomplete to Gavin BartholomewSimilar
Q3 1:04
2ND & 10
OWN 33
0
79.3%
Nick Patti pass incomplete to Jared WayneSimilar
Q3 0:57
3RD & 10
OWN 33
+11
80.7%
Nick Patti pass complete to Vincent Davis for 11 yds to the Pitt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:42
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+1
77.9%
Vincent Davis run for 1 yd to the Pitt 45Similar
Q3 0:07
2ND & 9
OWN 45
0
78.3%
Nick Patti pass incomplete to Vincent DavisSimilar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 9
OWN 45
+3
79.3%
Nick Patti pass complete to Daniel Carter for 3 yds to the Pitt 48Similar
Q4 14:49
4TH & 6
OWN 48
0
80.2%
Sam Vander Haar punt for 25 yds, downed at the UCLA 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 17INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0086% → 86%
Q4 14:41
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-12
85.6%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass intercepted Bangally Kamara return for 12 yds to the UCLA 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 18TD
5 plays · 18 yds · 1:5126% → 49%
Q4 14:35
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
74.2%
Nick Patti pass incomplete to Konata MumpfieldSimilar
Q4 14:28
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+6
74.8%
Nick Patti pass complete to Konata Mumpfield for 6 yds to the UCLA 12Similar
Q4 13:50
3RD & 4
OPP 12
+5
78.5%
Daniel Carter run for 5 yds to the UCLA 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
76.7%
Daniel Carter run for no gain to the UCLA 7Similar
Q4 12:44
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
50.8%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 7 yds for a TD (Ben Sauls KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 19FG
7 plays · 7 yds · 1:5649% → 59%
Q4 12:34
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+4
50.7%
Vincent Davis run for 4 yds to the UCLA 15Similar
Q4 11:58
2ND & 6
OPP 15
+6
50.3%
Vincent Davis run for 6 yds to the UCLA 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-3
49.9%
Vincent Davis run for a loss of 3 yards to the UCLA 12Similar
Q4 10:48
2ND & GOAL
OPP 12
0
50.1%
Nick Patti pass incomplete to Jared WayneSimilar
Q4 10:43
3RD & GOAL
OPP 12
0
52.3%
Nick Patti pass incomplete to Jared WayneSimilar
Q4 10:38
4TH & GOAL
OPP 12
+31
41.5%
Ben Sauls 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:3845% → 40%
Q4 10:26
1ST & 10
OWN 5
-3
44.7%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to TJ Harden for a loss of 3 yards to the UCLA 2Similar
Q4 9:58
2ND & 13
OWN 2
-1
44.7%
TJ Harden run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCLA 1Similar
Q4 9:25
3RD & 14
OWN 1
+5
42.4%
TJ Harden run for 5 yds to the UCLA 6Similar
Q4 8:48
4TH & 9
OWN 6
+6
40.4%
Nicholas Barr-Mira punt for 50 yds , M.J. Devonshire returns for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 21FG
13 plays · 41 yds · 4:1766% → 81%
Q4 8:41
1ST & 10
50
+1
34.3%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 1 yd to the UCLA 49Similar
Q4 8:10
2ND & 9
OPP 49
+1
33.4%
Vincent Davis run for 1 yd to the UCLA 48Similar
Q4 7:30
3RD & 8
OPP 48
+9
33.8%
Nick Patti run for 9 yds to the UCLA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:40
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
30.7%
Vincent Davis run for 4 yds to the UCLA 35Similar
Q4 6:06
2ND & 6
OPP 35
0
25.4%
Nick Patti pass incomplete to Jared WayneSimilar
Q4 6:00
3RD & 6
OPP 35
0
27.4%
Nick Patti pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:50
4TH & 6
OPP 35
+30
31.7%
Nick Patti pass complete to Konata Mumpfield for 30 yds to the UCLA 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
25.2%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 1 yd to the UCLA 4Similar
Q4 4:33
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
24.0%
Nick Patti pass incomplete to Konata MumpfieldSimilar
Q4 4:30
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
25.8%
Nick Patti pass incomplete to Bub MeansSimilar
Q4 4:30
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
-5
29.6%
PITTSBURGH Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the UCLA 9Similar
Q4 4:24
4TH & GOAL
OPP 9
+27
18.8%
Ben Sauls 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 22DOWNS
6 plays · 12 yds · 1:5428% → 25%
Q4 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
27.5%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to Logan Loya for 11 yds to the UCLA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:56
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-3
29.3%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to TJ Harden for a loss of 3 yards to the UCLA 33Similar
Q4 3:20
2ND & 13
OWN 33
+8
26.8%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to Keegan Jones for 8 yds to the UCLA 41Similar
Q4 2:54
3RD & 5
OWN 41
-4
29.6%
Ethan Garbers sacked by Elliot Donald and David Green for a loss of 4 yards to the UCLA 37Similar
Q4 2:21
4TH & 9
OWN 37
0
24.6%
Ethan Garbers pass incomplete to Logan LoyaSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 23FUMBLE
7 plays · 7 yds · 0:1690% → 90%
Q4 2:17
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+2
10.1%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 2 yds to the UCLA 35Similar
Q4 2:11
2ND & 8
OPP 35
+2
9.1%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 2 yds to the UCLA 33Similar
Q4 2:06
3RD & 6
OPP 33
+5
8.8%
Nick Patti run for 5 yds to the UCLA 28Similar
Q4 2:01
4TH & 1
OPP 28
-2
9.9%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the UCLA 30 Rodney Hammond Jr. fumbled, recovered by Pitt Rodney Hammond Jr.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 24TD
9 plays · 70 yds · 1:1916% → 84%
Q4 1:53
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
15.6%
Ethan Garbers run for 4 yds to the UCLA 34Similar
Q4 1:42
2ND & 6
OWN 34
+34
16.5%
TJ Harden run for 34 yds to the Pitt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:30
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-4
21.0%
Ethan Garbers sacked by Tylar Wiltz for a loss of 4 yards to the Pitt 36Similar
Q4 1:06
2ND & 14
OPP 36
+12
14.3%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to Titus Mokiao-Atimalala for 12 yds to the Pitt 24Similar
Q4 1:00
3RD & 2
OPP 24
+2
19.4%
TJ Harden run for 2 yds to the Pitt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:50
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
22.3%
Ethan Garbers pass incomplete to Jake BoboSimilar
Q4 0:45
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+14
18.3%
Ethan Garbers pass complete to Jake Bobo for 14 yds to the Pitt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
84.1%
TJ Harden run for 8 yds for a TD (Nicholas Barr-Mira KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 25FG
8 plays · 46 yds · 0:2530% → 93%
Q4 0:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
70.0%
Nick Patti pass complete to Jared Wayne for 18 yds to the Pitt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:21
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+17
64.7%
Nick Patti pass complete to Bub Means for 17 yds to the UCLA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:20
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
57.9%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:12
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+11
66.1%
Nick Patti run for 11 yds to the UCLA 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:10
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
59.5%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:04
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+47
5.1%
Ben Sauls 47 yd FG GOODSimilar
Q4 0:04
2ND & 10
OWN 35
-15
6.9%
PITTSBURGH Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-15 Yards) to the Pitt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 26INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0014% → 14%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
13.8%
Ethan Garbers pass intercepted M.J. Devonshire return for no gain to the Pitt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:34
TJ Harden run for 8 yds for a TD (Nicholas Barr-Mira KICK)
+65.8
FG · Q4 0:04
Ben Sauls 47 yd FG GOOD
-54.4
TD · Q4 12:44
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 7 yds for a TD (Ben Sauls KICK)
-25.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com