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UL

Louisiana 16 at Houston 23

HOU
2022 · Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl · Dec 23, 2022 · Independence Stadium
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Win probability · HOU
modelHOU aheadUL aheadconfidence bandkey playHOU scoreUL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGTDFGTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 1:41 · Rhys Byrns punt for 19 yds, downed at the Houst 48
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+26.5+13.30−13.3−26.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 31Pregame prior+17.5Home team on offense−2.8Score differential−1.1Garbage-time factor−0.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.8Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 7:39: Chandler Fields pass complete to Johnny Lumpkin for 4 yds for a TD (Kenneth Almendares KICK) — UL win probability +2.4 pts (now 32%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 3:00: Clayton Tune pass complete to KeSean Carter for 33 yds for a TD (Kyle Ramsey PAT MISSED) — HOU win probability +9.0 pts (now 60%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 9:21: Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 2 yds for a TD (Kyle Ramsey KICK) — HOU win probability +17.1 pts (now 62%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  4. FG · Q4 13:40: Kyle Ramsey 19 yd FG GOOD — HOU win probability +6.8 pts (now 63%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:20: Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 12 yds for a TD (Kyle Ramsey KICK) — HOU win probability +30.3 pts (now 97%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
HOU made the numbers' call on 8 of 9UL made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
  1. Q1 10:21UL 4th & 2 at HOU 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 36.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    36.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    35.9%−0.1
    56% to make
    Punt
    35.8%−0.3
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:50HOU 4th & 1 at HOU 34, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 60.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    60.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    60.2%−0.3
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:35HOU 4th & 12 at HOU 49, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.7%−0.5
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.3%
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:41UL 4th & 8 at UL 33, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.5%−0.7
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.2%
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:18HOU 4th & 1 at UL 32, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 57.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    57.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    55.5%−2.0
    51% to make
    Punt
    54.7%−2.8
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:35UL 4th & 3 at HOU 25, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 47.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    46.8%−0.6
    66% to make
    Punt
    43.0%−4.3
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:03HOU 4th & 4 at HOU 23, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.4%−0.2
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.6%
    average punt
  8. Q2 7:05UL 4th & 7 at HOU 24, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 51.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.4%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    51.5%
    68% to make
    Punt
    48.9%−2.6
    average punt
  9. Q2 4:48HOU 4th & 2 at HOU 40, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 43.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    43.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    42.9%−0.6
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:31UL 4th & 2 at HOU 37, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 56.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    56.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    56.6%−0.1
    40% to make
    Punt
    55.1%−1.6
    average punt
  11. Q3 7:49HOU 4th & 1 at UL 27, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 54.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    54.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    51.4%−3.4
    62% to make
    Punt
    43.0%−11.8
    average punt
  12. Q3 4:54HOU 4th & 1 at UL 5, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 53.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    53.7%
    67% to convert
    Field goal
    48.9%−4.8
    92% to make
    Punt
    36.3%−17.4
    average punt
  13. Q4 13:40HOU 4th & 2 at UL 2, down 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.5 ptsKicked a field goal · 51.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    48.9%−3.5
    94% to make
    Punt
    34.5%−17.9
    average punt
  14. Q4 9:27UL 4th & 1 at HOU 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 47.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    47.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    35.6%−11.9
    28% to make
    Punt
    38.8%−8.7
    average punt
  15. Q4 6:01HOU 4th & 3 at HOU 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.7%−0.7
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.5%
    average punt
  16. Q4 2:59UL 4th & 11 at HOU 34, tied
    Numbers favored field goal by 6.1 ptsPunted · 47.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.7%−2.3
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    46.0%
    47% to make
    PuntTheir call
    39.9%−6.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
HOU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3UL made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 7:39UL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 3:00HOU Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    47.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 9:21HOU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 0:20HOU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.2%−1.9
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ULDrive 1TD
16 plays · 75 yds · 7:0928% → 32%
Q1 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
72.3%
Chandler Fields pass complete to Neal Johnson for 2 yds to the LaLaf 27Similar
Q1 14:24
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
72.2%
Chris Smith run for no gain to the LaLaf 27Similar
Q1 13:51
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+11
72.1%
Chandler Fields run for 11 yds to the LaLaf 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:21
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+10
71.9%
Chris Smith run for 10 yds to the LaLaf 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:57
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+1
71.8%
Chandler Fields run for 1 yd to the LaLaf 49Similar
Q1 12:35
2ND & 9
OWN 49
+13
71.7%
Chandler Fields pass complete to Errol Rogers Jr. for 13 yds to the Houst 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:53
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+8
71.5%
Chandler Fields pass complete to Neal Johnson for 8 yds to the Houst 30Similar
Q1 11:32
2ND & 2
OPP 30
-1
71.3%
Terrence Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the Houst 31Similar
Q1 10:58
3RD & 3
OPP 31
+1
71.2%
Terrence Williams run for 1 yd to the Houst 30Similar
Q1 10:21
4TH & 2
OPP 30
+10
71.3%
Chandler Fields pass complete to Johnny Lumpkin for 10 yds to the Houst 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:41
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+8
70.7%
Chandler Fields pass complete to Lance Legendre for 8 yds to the Houst 12Similar
Q1 9:06
2ND & 2
OPP 12
+8
70.5%
Chandler Fields pass complete to Errol Rogers Jr. for 8 yds to the Houst 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
70.2%
Chris Smith run for no gain to the Houst 4Similar
Q1 7:49
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
70.1%
Chandler Fields pass incomplete to John Stephens Jr.Similar
Q1 7:39
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
67.6%
Chandler Fields pass complete to Johnny Lumpkin for 4 yds for a TD (Kenneth Almendares KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 2PUNT
9 plays · 24 yds · 3:4668% → 66%
Q1 7:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
68.3%
Ta'Zhawn Henry run for 4 yds to the Houst 29Similar
Q1 7:03
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+4
68.2%
Ta'Zhawn Henry run for 4 yds to the Houst 33Similar
Q1 6:11
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+1
67.8%
Ta'Zhawn Henry run for 1 yd to the Houst 34Similar
Q1 5:50
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+17
67.3%
Ta'Zhawn Henry run for 2 yds to the LaLaf 36 for a 1ST down LOUISIANA Penalty, Personal Foul (Jacob Bernard) to the LaLaf 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:31
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
68.2%
Clayton Tune run for 5 yds to the LaLaf 44Similar
Q1 5:02
2ND & 5
OPP 44
+2
68.1%
Stacy Sneed run for 2 yds to the LaLaf 42Similar
Q1 4:38
3RD & 3
OPP 42
-9
67.8%
Clayton Tune sacked by Kendre' Gant for a loss of 9 yards to the Houst 49Similar
Q1 3:35
4TH & 12
OWN 49
+3
65.8%
Laine Wilkins punt for 41 yds , Eric Garror returns for 3 yds to the LaLaf 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 20 yds · 1:3734% → 35%
Q1 3:18
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
65.8%
Chris Smith run for no gain to the LaLaf 13Similar
Q1 2:55
2ND & 10
OWN 13
+18
65.6%
Chandler Fields pass complete to John Stephens Jr. for 18 yds to the LaLaf 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:31
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
64.8%
Chris Smith run for 2 yds to the LaLaf 33Similar
Q1 1:57
2ND & 8
OWN 33
0
64.2%
Chandler Fields pass incomplete to Errol Rogers Jr.Similar
Q1 1:48
3RD & 8
OWN 33
0
64.5%
Chandler Fields pass incomplete to Errol Rogers Jr.Similar
Q1 1:41
4TH & 8
OWN 33
0
64.9%
Rhys Byrns punt for 19 yds, downed at the Houst 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 4DOWNS
7 plays · 16 yds · 3:1566% → 64%
Q1 1:33
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
65.8%
Clayton Tune pass incomplete to Nathaniel DellSimilar
Q1 1:18
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+4
65.5%
Brandon Campbell run for 4 yds to the LaLaf 48Similar
Q1 0:47
3RD & 6
OPP 48
+7
65.4%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 7 yds to the LaLaf 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:09
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+4
65.4%
Brandon Campbell run for 4 yds to the LaLaf 37Similar
Q2 14:14
2ND & 6
OPP 37
-8
65.0%
Clayton Tune run for a loss of 8 yards to the LaLaf 45Similar
Q2 13:42
3RD & 14
OPP 45
+13
63.2%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Matthew Golden for 13 yds to the LaLaf 32Similar
Q2 13:18
4TH & 1
OPP 32
-4
63.7%
Brandon Campbell run for a loss of 4 yards to the LaLaf 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 5FG
8 plays · 39 yds · 3:3539% → 42%
Q2 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
61.4%
Dre'lyn Washington run for 1 yd to the LaLaf 37Similar
Q2 12:45
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+15
61.2%
Chandler Fields pass complete to Dalen Cambre for 15 yds to the Houst 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:07
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+16
59.8%
Dre'lyn Washington run for 16 yds to the Houst 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:33
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-6
59.2%
Dre'lyn Washington run for a loss of 6 yards to the Houst 38Similar
Q2 11:01
2ND & 16
OPP 38
+4
59.4%
Chandler Fields pass complete to Chris Smith for 4 yds to the Houst 34Similar
Q2 10:27
3RD & 12
OPP 34
+9
59.1%
Chandler Fields pass complete to Lance Legendre for 9 yds to the Houst 25Similar
Q2 9:35
4TH & 3
OPP 25
+15
58.9%
HOUSTON Penalty, Personal Foul (Sedrick Williams) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 9:35
4TH & 3
OPP 25
+42
58.1%
Kenneth Almendares 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:1556% → 53%
Q2 9:18
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+4
56.2%
Clayton Tune run for 4 yds to the Houst 21Similar
Q2 8:57
2ND & 6
OWN 21
+2
56.0%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Stacy Sneed for 2 yds to the Houst 23Similar
Q2 8:19
3RD & 4
OWN 23
0
54.7%
Clayton Tune pass incomplete to Peyton SawyerSimilar
Q2 8:03
4TH & 4
OWN 23
+33
53.4%
Laine Wilkins punt for 37 yds , Eric Garror returns for 33 yds to the Houst 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 7FG
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:4047% → 48%
Q2 7:45
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+3
52.9%
Chandler Fields run for 3 yds to the Houst 24Similar
Q2 7:18
2ND & 7
OPP 24
0
52.5%
Chandler Fields pass incomplete to Peter LeBlancSimilar
Q2 7:11
3RD & 7
OPP 24
0
53.0%
Chandler Fields pass incomplete to Lance LegendreSimilar
Q2 7:05
4TH & 7
OPP 24
+42
51.6%
Kenneth Almendares 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 8TD
12 plays · 80 yds · 3:5452% → 60%
Q2 6:54
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
51.5%
Clayton Tune pass incomplete to Nathaniel DellSimilar
Q2 6:48
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+12
51.4%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Joseph Manjack IV for 12 yds to the Houst 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:19
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
51.4%
Brandon Campbell run for 2 yds to the Houst 34Similar
Q2 5:46
2ND & 8
OWN 34
0
49.7%
Clayton Tune pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:34
3RD & 8
OWN 34
+6
48.9%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Joseph Manjack IV for 6 yds to the Houst 40Similar
Q2 4:48
4TH & 2
OWN 40
+6
48.7%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 6 yds Nathaniel Dell fumbled, recovered by Houst for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:12
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-10
49.4%
Tune, Clayton pass incomplete to Dell, Nathaniel, PENALTY HOUSTON holding 10 yards to the HOUSTON36, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:51
1ST & 20
OWN 36
+30
47.8%
Clayton Tune pass complete to KeSean Carter for 30 yds to the LaLaf 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:22
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+1
50.7%
Stacy Sneed run for 1 yd to the LaLaf 33Similar
Q2 3:00
2ND & 9
OPP 33
+33
59.6%
Clayton Tune pass complete to KeSean Carter for 33 yds for a TD (Kyle Ramsey PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 9DOWNS
18 plays · 82 yds · 2:4047% → 58%
Q2 2:42
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+3
53.0%
Chris Smith run for 3 yds to the LaLaf 15Similar
Q2 2:21
2ND & 1
OWN 15
+11
52.2%
Chris Smith run for 11 yds to the LaLaf 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+15
51.6%
Chandler Fields pass complete to Lance Legendre for 15 yds to the LaLaf 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
48.2%
Chandler Fields run for 5 yds to the LaLaf 46Similar
Q2 1:12
2ND & 5
OWN 46
+4
47.7%
Peter LeBlanc run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 0:56
3RD & 1
50
0
47.2%
Terrence Williams run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 0:56
4TH & 1
50
+5
48.6%
HOUSTON Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Houst 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:49
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
46.1%
Chandler Fields pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:43
2ND & 10
OPP 45
0
46.6%
Chandler Fields pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:31
3RD & 10
OPP 45
+8
47.1%
Chandler Fields run for 8 yds to the Houst 37Similar
Q2 0:31
4TH & 2
OPP 37
+5
47.3%
Chris Smith run for 5 yds to the Houst 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:20
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
44.7%
Chris Smith run for no gain to the Houst 32Similar
Q2 0:09
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+26
44.6%
Chandler Fields pass complete to Lance Legendre for 21 yds to the Houst 11 for a 1ST down HOUSTON Penalty, Personal Foul (5 Yards) to the Houst 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
44.2%
Chandler Fields pass incomplete to Neal JohnsonSimilar
Q2 0:02
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+22
42.0%
Kenneth Almendares 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 11TD
14 plays · 70 yds · 5:2346% → 62%
Q3 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+12
46.1%
Ta'Zhawn Henry run for 12 yds to the Houst 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:22
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
47.1%
Ta'Zhawn Henry run for no gain to the Houst 42Similar
Q3 13:36
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+6
45.6%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Joseph Manjack IV for 6 yds to the Houst 48Similar
Q3 12:55
3RD & 4
OWN 48
+7
45.0%
Clayton Tune run for 7 yds to the LaLaf 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:20
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
45.9%
Stacy Sneed run for 4 yds to the LaLaf 41Similar
Q3 12:09
2ND & 6
OPP 41
0
45.8%
Clayton Tune pass incomplete to KeSean CarterSimilar
Q3 11:50
3RD & 6
OPP 41
+7
45.0%
Brandon Campbell run for 7 yds to the LaLaf 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:30
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
46.6%
Clayton Tune pass incomplete to Nathaniel DellSimilar
Q3 11:12
2ND & 10
OPP 34
0
46.3%
Clayton Tune pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:43
3RD & 10
OPP 34
+20
43.7%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 5 yds to the LaLaf 29 for a 1ST down LOUISIANA Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the LaLaf 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:11
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+7
45.5%
Ta'Zhawn Henry run for 7 yds to the LaLaf 7Similar
Q3 9:57
2ND & 3
OPP 7
+5
45.1%
Ta'Zhawn Henry run for 5 yds to the LaLaf 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
62.3%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 2 yds for a TD (Kyle Ramsey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 12FUMBLE
3 plays · 10 yds · 0:1246% → 48%
Q3 9:09
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+16
54.4%
Chandler Fields pass complete to John Stephens Jr. for 16 yds to the LaLaf 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:57
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-6
51.9%
Chris Smith run for a loss of 6 yards to the LaLaf 36 Chris Smith fumbled, recovered by Houst Sedrick WilliamsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 13DOWNS
8 plays · 31 yds · 3:5461% → 57%
Q3 8:48
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+5
60.8%
Stacy Sneed run for 5 yds to the LaLaf 31Similar
Q3 8:19
2ND & 5
OPP 31
0
61.9%
Clayton Tune pass incomplete to Nathaniel DellSimilar
Q3 8:03
3RD & 5
OPP 31
+4
60.1%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Matthew Golden for 4 yds to the LaLaf 27Similar
Q3 7:49
4TH & 1
OPP 27
+13
58.3%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Matt Byrnes for 13 yds to the LaLaf 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:01
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-1
61.5%
Stacy Sneed run for a loss of 1 yard to the LaLaf 15Similar
Q3 6:22
2ND & 11
OPP 15
+1
61.2%
Stacy Sneed run for 1 yd to the LaLaf 14Similar
Q3 5:41
3RD & 10
OPP 14
+9
59.3%
Clayton Tune run for 9 yds to the LaLaf 5Similar
Q3 4:54
4TH & 1
OPP 5
0
56.8%
Brandon Campbell run for no gain to the LaLaf 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 10 yds · 1:5848% → 48%
Q3 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+10
51.8%
Chandler Fields pass complete to Pearse Migl for 10 yds to the LaLaf 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:24
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+5
51.2%
Chandler Fields pass complete to Pearse Migl for 5 yds to the LaLaf 20Similar
Q3 3:41
2ND & 5
OWN 20
-8
50.5%
Chandler Fields run for 4 yds to the LaLaf 24 LOUISIANA Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-12 Yards) to the LaLaf 12Similar
Q3 3:01
2ND & 13
OWN 12
+3
50.8%
Chandler Fields pass complete to Terrence Williams for 3 yds to the LaLaf 15Similar
Q3 2:42
3RD & 10
OWN 15
+25
52.1%
Rhys Byrns punt for 43 yds , Peyton Sawyer returns for 25 yds to the LaLaf 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 15FG
10 plays · 31 yds · 3:4560% → 63%
Q3 2:25
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+11
60.4%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Joseph Manjack IV for 11 yds to the LaLaf 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:01
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+14
60.2%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Ta'Zhawn Henry for 14 yds to the LaLaf 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-5
59.9%
HOUSTON Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the LaLaf 13Similar
Q3 1:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 13
+4
59.7%
Clayton Tune run for 4 yds to the LaLaf 9Similar
Q3 0:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
-4
59.5%
Clayton Tune sacked by Ja'Marian Peterson and Jourdan Quibodeaux for a loss of 4 yards to the LaLaf 13Similar
Q4 14:55
3RD & GOAL
OPP 13
+11
55.4%
Clayton Tune pass incomplete to Matthew Golden for a 1ST down LOUISIANA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (11 Yards) to the LaLaf 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
59.4%
Clayton Tune pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:43
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
-1
59.3%
Clayton Tune run for a loss of 1 yard to the LaLaf 3Similar
Q4 14:17
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
56.3%
Ta'Zhawn Henry run for 1 yd to the LaLaf 2Similar
Q4 13:40
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+19
63.1%
Kyle Ramsey 19 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 16FUMBLE
11 plays · 75 yds · 4:5143% → 52%
Q4 13:23
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+6
57.2%
Chris Smith run for 6 yds to the LaLaf 27Similar
Q4 12:57
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+2
55.4%
Chris Smith run for 2 yds to the LaLaf 29Similar
Q4 12:27
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+6
56.6%
Chris Smith run for 6 yds to the LaLaf 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:36
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+13
55.2%
Zeon Chriss pass complete to John Stephens Jr. for 13 yds to the LaLaf 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:19
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
51.7%
Zeon Chriss run for 4 yds to the Houst 48Similar
Q4 10:45
2ND & 6
OPP 48
+1
51.0%
Zeon Chriss run for 1 yd to the Houst 47Similar
Q4 10:09
3RD & 5
OPP 47
+4
51.5%
Chris Smith run for 4 yds to the Houst 43Similar
Q4 9:27
4TH & 1
OPP 43
+9
53.6%
Zeon Chriss pass complete to Neal Johnson for 9 yds to the Houst 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:54
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+25
48.6%
Zeon Chriss run for 25 yds to the Houst 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
47.8%
Chris Smith run for 5 yds to the Houst 4 Chris Smith fumbled, recovered by Houst Donavan MutinSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 19 yds · 2:1059% → 56%
Q4 8:11
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+12
59.1%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 12 yds to the Houst 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+4
60.0%
Brandon Campbell run for 4 yds to the Houst 20Similar
Q4 7:20
2ND & 6
OWN 20
+5
59.4%
Brandon Campbell run for 5 yds to the Houst 25Similar
Q4 6:31
3RD & 1
OWN 25
-2
58.3%
Ta'Zhawn Henry run for a loss of 2 yards to the Houst 23Similar
Q4 6:01
4TH & 3
OWN 23
0
55.5%
Laine Wilkins punt for 22 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Houst 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 18PUNT
6 plays · 11 yds · 2:4753% → 48%
Q4 5:46
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
47.2%
Zeon Chriss pass complete to Lance Legendre for 3 yds to the Houst 42Similar
Q4 5:15
2ND & 7
OPP 42
+9
47.0%
Terrence Williams run for 9 yds to the Houst 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:36
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
44.8%
Zeon Chriss pass complete to Terrence Williams for no gain to the Houst 33Similar
Q4 3:47
2ND & 10
OPP 33
-1
44.5%
Terrence Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the Houst 34Similar
Q4 3:06
3RD & 11
OPP 34
0
47.7%
Zeon Chriss pass incomplete to Neal JohnsonSimilar
Q4 2:59
4TH & 11
OPP 34
0
52.5%
Rhys Byrns punt for 26 yds, fair catch by Peyton Sawyer at the Houst 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 19TD
10 plays · 92 yds · 2:3057% → 97%
Q4 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+33
57.4%
Clayton Tune run for 33 yds to the Houst 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:18
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-10
62.2%
Tune, Clayton pass incomplete to Manjack IV, Joseph, PENALTY HOUSTON holding 10 yards to the HOUSTON31, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:58
1ST & 20
OWN 31
-10
58.0%
HOUSTON Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Houst 21Similar
Q4 1:39
1ST & 30
OWN 21
+41
57.5%
Clayton Tune pass complete to KeSean Carter for 41 yds to the LaLaf 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:36
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+11
64.6%
Ta'Zhawn Henry run for 11 yds to the LaLaf 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:40
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
66.8%
Ta'Zhawn Henry run for no gain to the LaLaf 27 Ta'Zhawn Henry fumbled, recovered by Houst Patrick PaulSimilar
Q4 0:29
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+15
68.4%
Clayton Tune run for 15 yds to the LaLaf 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:20
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
96.7%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 12 yds for a TD (Kyle Ramsey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:20
Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 12 yds for a TD (Kyle Ramsey KICK)
+30.3
TD · Q3 9:21
Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 2 yds for a TD (Kyle Ramsey KICK)
+17.1
TD · Q2 3:00
Clayton Tune pass complete to KeSean Carter for 33 yds for a TD (Kyle Ramsey PAT MISSED)
+9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com